Analyzing the Burnham Political Record

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Hello good morning and welcome. It's Monday, june twenty second. The Starmer era is over. Within hours, Kir Starmer looks all but certain to have indicated his intention to step down as Prime Minister. Less than two years into the job. He's lost control and now he's out, with Britain heading towards its seventh prime Minister in a decade. My name is Sam Coates of Sky News. And I'm Anne McKlvoy from Politico Andy Burnham arrives in Westminster at lunchtime. He is not quite yet at the time of recording technically an MP after winning that Makerfield by election handsomely. That happens this afternoon after which he will have the traditional photo call with Labour MPs I'm sure almost all of them will make a big effort to attend with a smile Yes, you can imagine people be clearing their beres for that. But the big picture about what happens next is down to Kir Stahmer and exactly what he decides to do and when And really it's a question of when he decides to address the nation about his own future As we speak, Downing Street is filling up with journalists and cameras and scribblers. The Prime Minister is physically back from checkers Now we don't have a time for when he might address the nation and number ten have officially in the last few minutes repeated that there is no update. But you know it's all going one way and and after Friday, where the cabinet ministers were queuing up to tell him to quit, it feels inconceivable that this could drag on I think, you know, it really can't drag on more than today because you can't have cabinet as normal tomorrow morning It's really playing out as we suggested on Friday morning in our special episode. We said it would Clearly, clearly there have been bumps along the way. One of the most revealing, I thought into the psychology of the Prime Minister was an little anecde from Channel Fors Gary Gibbon on Friday night, when he revealed there in one meeting Kar Star was so irritable by the events that he was being confronted with and the views he has been confronted with D he even suggested he could quit as an MP and create an unhelpful by election in the early weeks of a Burnham premiership. Now I think that's being played down, but it just gives you a sense of how difficult this is for him. Absolutely. You know I've also been talking with friends and former colleagues of Starmer from his legal days, also reflecting that he has felt very angry about this process and some worries frankly, about how that plays into a transition and the start of a new labor era in government Kistar and his family were at checkers this weekend, just with his wife Victoria with their teenage kids who were in permanent exam mode. I think something you also know all too well in Cat's household. It was a difficult father's day, sure he was very happy to be in his close family, no aids present Although they were on the phone, much of the Downing Street machine did seem to be in the dark about his intentions, even as we headed to the back end of Sunday, but we hear he has been consistently in touch over this difficult period with his old friend, the attttorney General Richard Hermmer And I think getting advice there on how he should go about this next period. Yeah, It tonally you know, you can read across the media a lot of sort of concern for KS Amers you know, welfare and you know state of mind. The bottom line here is that he didn't come into government prepared enough. He lost control. There are events outside of his control, yes, but he lost his party and he lost an extraordinary opportunity for the Labour Party to reset country and that really was down to him. So I would be whereare believing too much in some of the crocodile tears of politicians who are saying things ultimately probably saying nice things ultimately probably to get him out the door faster. So I'm afraid politics is even more cynical and even more brutal than it is going to present itself in the next forty eight hours. Some of his longest marches though, some people who have genuine sort of emotional ties to Kstara We' looking a little bit out in the cold I was to of a party in London on Saturday night where a handful of his very, very longer serving d is right up his days in opposition and even his days as Sadow Brexit seecretary were actually at looking rather glum and subdued. I mean they all know that it's only going one way, but I mean it's quite significant they weren't in the room where it matters. The bigger knownown this morning, An isn't whereether he's going to go such think he is what he says about when he's going to depart number ten because actually there are lots of different possibilities, some of which are quite awkward for whoever takes over from him Proand Andy Burnerner. Now there are, I am told, some, not particularly great, but some lines of communication between the Burnham camp and the Starmer camp And so there is a sense around allies of Andy Bernland that they do know what he's going to do. And the big question, I think, over the weekend was was Stum are going to play nice or going to play dirty in effect because he could say I'm out of here pretty much straight away I will stop being Prime Minister the moment that the process of choosing a new leader is put into effect And if Andy Burnham was kind of nominated and is unopposed, that could have put Andy Burnham Downing Street, you know, by about this Thursday. And you know, I think even Team Bernam would say that is not an ideal scenario. We want a little bit of time to put together our team and our policy persspectes. We don't really want that I am told that is now not looking likely. And the presumption amongst Team Burnham is that as it were, Kierst armred makes an announcement that means that the actual transfer of power is either just before the summer or just after the summer, which is in line with what they want So we get that means basically we're going to get a handover that's something akin to what we saw from Tony Blair into Gordon Brown in two thousand seven. And all of that is predicated on there not being a wider contest And Stalma not giving us some kind of Monday surprise S straws in the wind from Flaybook, one advisor with knowledge of the discussions in the cheheckers bunker. telling my colleagues on Sunday afternoon that at that point, the Prime Minister was still genuinely deciding what to do And I think the direction of travel may be clear, and I think you and I both agree own what that is, Sam But it was interesting to me hearing that another former close colleague of Starb in the Lords was sending, don't look back in anger advice through to the Prime Minister if and when that lectn is rolled out in downing a street, figuring out how to frame what is basically an ouster by his own MPs and ministers in a way that does least damage labour and know it makes him not look like the man with grittter teeth who was being dragged out of number T But you know, Dan Lom says for Peace for Politica, he's looking at the role of the men and women in grey summer apparel The ministers who have signed this death warrant. they have actually imposed something that is quite sudden and stark. The ground was simply pulled from under Kistama's feet. Remember, it's only a week since he was saying he was going to fight on and that was the message that he wanted AIidDS to put out there. But the political reality has eaten him up, and I think it's especially when this account comes to be written, it will be those like the Foreign Secretary Eve Cooper, the Chief Jonathan Reynolds, peopleeople who, if you like the quiet men and women who suddenly turned up the volume and said that this is your moment to go. Yeah. I think that's I think that's one of the reasons why he'll feel so sore. In these moments, the official line is always that there's no decision until until there's suddenly announcement. That's sort of I' sort of slightly on T to hooks, thinking it could come any second, including mid recording of this podcast. I think there was a bit of a wobble on Sunday evening, Anne when Donald Trump appeared to preempt the Prime Minister's resignation on social media, basically saying he was resigning And I think there was a discussion at that point by some around the Prime Minister about whether or not they were suddenly going to find themselves in a situation that they couldn't control But But here we are at just before seven AM where they're just about holding the line and not telling us what's going on. Can we allow ourselves a moment of levity on a serious day sort of Donald Trump on social media? I'm the president of the US and I'm here to help It somehow often manages to make things just a tad worse. One thing I would point out about a very long profile a while ago of Victoria Starmer when we thought that she was going to be our First lady, so to speak, for a longer period. and she has always been pushing her husband not to quit when times are tough. I saw her out and about with him twice last week, both abroad at the G seven and back here at a big social event, always looking very calm, very pulled together. I think she's a kind of body arm ofher for her husband at times like this I'm sure that there has been a lot of conversation in the family and s searching, as you'd expect, in a very close family over the weekend. But as you said earlier, there's a reality check also this is not only about what Stammer and those who love and admire him think, this is a political murder on the Orient Express. which It's been done one minister at a time conveying strength of feeling on the back benches that the Prime Mister has to move aside for a change of leadership, likely to Andy Burnham. And I bumped into two people with experience Sam of comings and going of politics at the high level and all the traumas. at a lunch yesterday for Lord Sachi, the Sach era communications guru, And there was U.S. President Bill Clinton forormally, and he was just reflecting very empathetically that these moments are very tough on a leader and their families and you just focus on the good things in your legacy. You I had a quick word with him And even more upbeat John Major on our side of the pond. He said, Well, if it all goes south, you know he said what do you think he should do? And he said, well You should follow my example in nineteen ninety seven and go to the cricket straight after So there you go. some advice from those who've been through the the ups and downs of the biggest jobs. I think that K St' a different to that would probably be to go to the World Cup which at at time of speaking, he's not planning to go, but that depends on how well England or arguably Scotland do. Yeah, Richie Sunak was also writing over the weekend about what it's like a tough times say that Checkers is by far and away the best place to be when it's all getting you A these that you do just spend a lot of time wondering whether it's you? Which in the case of Richie Sonak, yeah, probably it was. But interestingly, this point about the family, I think is important. Yes, like Vick Star will be absolutely key. But I think also in play will be his two teenagers who will have been living through all of this. And actually the starers have been very careful to keep them out of the public eye and stop that There was one moment where Kiss Smmer went public about his teenage daughter And he said he said this on an episode of Loose Women on ITV. He said that on the day he was elected kind as the exit poll was coming out daughter was in absolute floods of tears at the prospect of what was about to happen And I've long felt that maybe a little bit of personal experience here, that teenage children are kindind of your harshest critic and your most brutal evaluers. So I do wonder whether or not they will see things much, much more clearly than anybody with their nose pressed more close up to the glass and they're the ones with the most robust source of advice as we can. That's a really interesting insight. and they're also your weakest point, aren't they? And you know you think everything's gone wrong for me, the top game of politics, they're also the reminder that there is a life after that. and that there is great value in that. And they the living proof The other variable I would just throw into the mix is whether this contest triggers more entrance. Team Burnham has made pretty plain that is not its favored option But you Woodware streeting who has been absolutely unrelenting in keeping it's been a bit of a sort of one man streeting band, but that band has been playing away, you know saying I'm still here and I still want to go at the top job so would he trade way and what would it take for him to do so and to say, I'm not going to run in a contest. When I bumped into him last week, he was still really adamant. He was kind happy to be on the record as such that he was going to still still try to fight the contest didn't really respond to teasing about what cabinet role he would think of accepting or hope to get under burnen because he still wanted to be leader. Well, that felt like a bit of a niche position to be honest, but he did reflect a mood among some labour MPs that you have been picking up too because a lot of them are quite glistering at the idea of just a coronation going ahead over their heads. The Bermansey MP Neil Coyle writing My members are livid about the prospect of an utter stitch up and the media circcus being rewarded. Oops,'s powerful apparently. The next leader can't change Trump, Iran, Ukraine, Putin, et cetera. And the media at some point will be baying for the blood of the successor too. So on that account You could see it might be better to have emerged via a contest. Yeah. there are pros and cons to the way that it could happen And if Kir Stma does do basically what Team Burnham want and give Andy Burnham a little bit of breathing space before it, all there is a contest, as you were just outlining then tons of that are that from the moment Kistama says he's going, he is then in charge of a zombie administration, right? In effect, he is only part in office whil and part in power whilst still sitting behind the desk in number ten partarticularly if there's just a transition period into Andy Burnham, we will, to all intents and purposes have two prime ministers each decision will need to be sort of double checked both formally and informally with Andy Burnham and that's, you know, it did work for the country in two thousand seven and you couldn't make the argument that Gordon Brown and Tony Blair were a nest of singing birds in that transition. So the system does cope with that, but it does rather put the big questions about Britain's future the ones that, you know, my day job at Sky News I've been sort of looking at in those in those films from, you know, the abute melt down in the court system to set, you know the next stage of seEnd legislation, which we're expecting within weeks to sort out that problem and as whole host of other intractable things inflation coming down from what's going on in the Middle East all of those things sort of on hold, you can't really get a big economic package to help with wherever we exactly we end up on the Middle East until that's that's all that's all sorted. So I do think that there is a there is a sort of a danger that labor looks somewhat self indulgent if Effectively, what we get is the party talking to itself for whatever reason and putting things on hold because people aren't quite ready to be prrime Minister. That's not why the publiclect landslides in this country, which you know didn't even happen two years ago to be honest. Let's have a quick word about Andy Berham about to be newly minted P today. it's just you made a great film about Burnhamism and Manchesterism at the weekend, which I think we should probably have a deeper dive into when we look at the lightly Burnham prospectives. But I just wanted to throw this at you, you sam, because I just happen to be looking at it from Caroline Wheeler, old colleague of us both in the I paper And she said this for twenty years, Andy Beram has being the man on the wrong side of the door. amering on it the Hillsborough families, the infected blood community, nuclear test veterans, and now the waspy women caught out by a pension age. But now he comes, if you like, through that door, most likely the famous black door. And it's not only about the causes that you take up and what you can support in terms of people who aren't being heard osing in some way, it's about proposing and governing. I just wondered if that was also something you were thinking about when you spent all those days on the ground making this really excellent film for Sky. Thank you very much, indeed. It's available to watch on Sky YouTube, Sky News apppp and you can see it on my social media fe feed eighteen minutes longoe intion, please do take a look. The things that Caroline Wheeler lists as causes that Andy Bunn and champions are important worthy. they have political constituencies and the tone and the manner in which he's done it I think he's one of the reasons that he is politically successful But one of the things that we highlight on the film, I think, is sort of justr throws a little bit of that into sharp relief, right In Manchester, Andy Berner's big success is the B transport network, the B bus network. where he took the buses back into nationalized control and generally tying up what was a pretty shoddy service. You know this is work done started by his predecessor, Richard Lis, but continued and a lot of the hardyards were done by Andy Berham. so big tick for that. What was interesting is I did a deep dive into the costs of that. be network system, which you can find the government publishes comparative data for all the different con connurbations and the big kind of combined authority areas. And the bottom line is that yes, it's a great system for the people of Manchester But the amount being spent on transport in the Greater Manchester Ten Councils is just more and has gone up by a lot more in the last decade than everywhere else bit of the key. to Andy Burnham's success was getting money spent That's fine where you're chumpioning one local area. But if you have to get money spent in every one of these areas across the country, the questions quickly becomes where do you get the money from? And as they listen to that list of kind of waspie women you know, some of the stuff around Hillsborough, although obviously it's a different solution to that. But in the end, the sort of bill does rack up and If you're going to please