Voting Intentions and Progressive Coalitions

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Hello good morning and welcome It's Tuesday June second. It's raining. There are che strikes and at nine AM in Downing Street this morning, K Starmer will have to look Pat McFadden in the eye. after WhatsApp messages published between the W and Pension Secretary and Peter Mandelson revealed his private despair about the government's direction Can Pat McFadden survive in his job, should he Or is he staying in post because he knows the cabinet in its current form isn't there for much longer My name is Sam Coates of Sky News. And I'm Anne McKlvoy from Politic Cope McFadden told Peter Mandelson that every meeting he had with members of the Parliamentary Labour Party concerned the question who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others? An idea that opposition politicians seized on at once a modern day update perhaps to Liam Byurnns's twenty ten cry There is no money left Elsewhere, McFadden said that those in number ten didn't really know what they wanted and sought ideas and people to rebook the operation last summer but didn't appear to want to be part of that. It was an idea Lord Mandelson clearly thought was pretty hopeless as well. All of this from the unprecedented WhatsApp disclosures, of which basically Pat McFabden was the biggest victim pages and pages of his exchanges with Peter Mandelson. what matters is that Pat McFadden is just about one of the biggest loyalists in the cabinet. He was one of the figures in the mananning the barricades last month when colleagues were coming for Kir Starmer, he is somebody who routinely is wheeled out on the most difficult occasions to defend this government. He was also somebody who was very much at the center of the election effort and spent the first year or so at the heart of the government in the cabinet offffice trying to make it all work and that's the job he had. point where these messages were being, you know, exchanged but for him not to look like he felt bounded, not to push back on Peter Mandelton's many, many criticisms of the government, I think really is significant about just how sort of narrowly Terstarmer's writ extends across that frankly should be his closest allies or people that we expected to be his closest allies. And I think that's why cabinet at nine AM this morning will be tricky I spent all day going through the Mandelerson files yesterday. I kind of felt they were as we predicted, so much of the policy stuff was stripped out of it that we were just left with quite a lot of raw politics. But Anne what do you think that all amounted to? W someone else having a sweaty start to the day, Sam is Nick Thomas Simmondons on the broadcast around Not least because as my politicalo colleague, Aam Blewitt revealed his message as to Mandelson couldn't be recovered because he had to admit to having his phone stolen in October last year and yes, that does keep up to labour folk What we have got laid bare in the files, and I think you are pointing in this direction, Sam was the discomfort and the back biting in that sense that the lack of grip of government, particularly in number ten revolves around a man who isn't really there in the sense of guiding the political strategy and aim of the government one H Starmer That's one I think you do get those sort of messages. I don't think Matt Ferden was just intending to be kind of bitchy about the Prime Minister when he talked as he did to Peter Mandelson. I think you could sense it comes through, he's very worried about it as on that welfare and Tax point But he can't see a way to break out of that cycle, which as you say, must make it quite. strange this morning to sit very close to the person that you' effectively saying is a vacuum And I thought there was also something else just in the hours since we've had to think about this since we started getting through or using AI to go through the the files yesterday to find what we were looking for or not is it does pose a question, I think for Andy Burnham and the line that he has been pursuing that the party needs to have the conscience of the PLP. It needs the backbenches to stop it going truck and doing things that are too rigorous or too tough and but actually It seems really that McCerden is saying the problem is the other way around. We can't get anything done on welfare because the party is stuck in this trap of just thinking it wants higher taxes to pay for welfare and bene It's not hard to see a road to electoral problems there, is it? No, absolutely. I just think the sheer electoral difficulty of having McFadden's words, who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others being the subject of every meeting that he goes into and plastered across, you know, pretty much any opposition leaflet for some time to come is just is just very, very painful and somewhat careless from somebody who, you know, I understand that these messages weren't designed to be released, but from somebody who's normally quite careful you know, you mentioned Nick Thomas Simmons with his phone stolen. you know the pattern of WhatsApp disclosures is very uneven in these documents. Some people didn't message Peter Mandelson, Others must have had disappearing messages on, as we were saying yesterday and they're and their contents and therefore their ability to embarrass this or any color of labour government, you know is much much curailed, but that wasn't true the working pension seecretary, and I'm sure he feels quite bad about that this morning, but those is the breraaks in politics, I fear. You've got news from playlaybook about another kind of intervention from Pat McFadden that plays into the politics at the moment? Yes, Andrew MacDonald picking up on another Pat Mac moment which slit by me yesterday anyway, namely that he had agreed with Tony Blair's intervention against Ed Milliban's rapid pursuit of net zero policies. In a note, this was after, if you might remember that Blair intervened in May last year saying that the zero quest particularly as Miliband is pursuing it wasn't working because people were being asked to make financial sacrifices and changes in their lifestime when they know the impact on global emissions is minimal. Well at the time, number ten defended the policy strongly, but when you look at what McFerden was saying, he says TV content bang on therefore suggesting that perhaps this opposition within Cabinet or a dividing line about Edge Midiband's approach. was there and thus, by definition, seeing as it's all largely the same people is still there and I thought that was a good example of finding one of those dogs that isn't barking but actually at any moment could growl and bite. And do you have any sense of how the Mandelson files are going down elsewhere? So we had the first reaction from Andy Burnham. He said that Westminster needs a fundamental culture change, which you know isn't straightforward to do if he becomes Prime Minister. I'm interested to see how he goes about doing that But the most extensive reaction, An, I think is one that won't necessarily have been picked up widely in Westminster, but I think we're going to give everybody a bit of a flavor of it And it was the unlucky ask of Lucy Powell, deputy Labour leader to respond to everything yesterday because she was giving an extended interview to the comedian Matt Ford who's the labor supporting podcaster who has a podcast pololitical partarty. And he had her on the stage yesterday to talk about just about everything Now she was praying in aid yesterday that she hadn't actually read the Mandelison files. She was saying that the you know they're absolutely huge. and she was pointing out she didn't get old with Peter Mandelson and that the only thing in in these huge books that were dropped were three messages that he sent trying to get her to vote for him to be Oxford Chancellor. And he ghosted she ghosted every single one of them. which is why she's she's not in there She did range more widely and I think in the spirit of sort of Pat McFadden, you also get a sense of where she is on things like Kirst Darma, which you know the timing is pretty awful on that. Yeah, so what does she really reckon to Kirst Daharma and his survival hopes? Well, my excellent colleague, Ben Block, I think, was in the audience last night, which is why I can read you what he was saying So she was asked, do you think Kia has to go And rather non commommittally, she replied, I think it's completely up to K what Kay wants to do She was asked, do labour members want here to stay And she replied, I think there's lots of views about this, and the crowd all laughed And then she was asked, if Kar stayed could Labour win the next election? And Lucy Powell replied, I think it's going to be difficult for Labour to win the next election generally On the question of K's feature absolutely wasn't urging him to stay. She absolutely wasn't giving her his backing. She absolutely wasn't doing what she'd done in the past to bat away these questions So I mean, Lukewarm doesn't even, you know, Tid, you know, that was that was that was a cold shower for Kir Starmer, frankly, I thought, from somebody who is his deputy in party terms. Absolutely. Tepid was the word that sprang to mind. It's completely up to Kir what Kir wants to do It's one of those statements that says nothing but says everything. If we look back to that deputy leadership contest when Lucy Powell was competing against Bridget Philipson She was very clear after that. She was going to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Prime Minister. This is a long way tone. It sounds actually saying it's up to him when he you know wants to go, I'm not really that convinced that he should stay. And I think either way it's going to be hard for us to win the next election. There's nothing there to give him any comfort. No. And actually she allowed herself to be dragged further down the rabbit hole of, you know, Labour's future potentially without K Ama. She was asked whether or not she herself might go for Lida And on this, she was definitive. She said, it's not me Why not? Because I don't want to do it You know, but Matt Ford pressed. But if you want to stand for Dpy leader, why not leader And she goes, and this I think is really interesting. particularly in reference to the gender debate that's going on in Labor at the moment, she says, because I don't want to. I mean, it's horrendous, isn't it? I literally wouldn't wish that job on my worst enemy to be honest with you Could I run the country? Yeah, I could probably run the country. Could I run the country politically? Yeah, of course I could Do I want all the absolute S star star star that comes with it? No, thank you So I think you know there is a debate at the moment about why labour seem to trend towards men only. I think that's the most honest answer I've heard from any leading female politician. Let's see how a potential contest shakes down, but he's actually the bit, I thought in the whole of the podcast interview that for me is the most lingering and politically striking She was asked by Batford, do you actually think Labour members want a contest And she replied, probablyrobably not no. I don't think so. Contests are difficult, aren't they U there are times for introspection, big things are happening. It's not that people say they want K to carry on. It's not the same thing. but party members like conflict the le look the least, they don't like the conflict Now and I think that can be read in two ways, either. She doesn't think Labour Party people want a change of leader, but she's quite careful to make it clear that's not what she's saying. I think what we're getting is a road testing of an argument that you can have a change of Prime Minister without a contest, which is, of course, drum roll a coronation. And we were talking about this yesterday. So I just think that what we're going to get after the Makerfield by election on june eighteenth, peopleeople like Lucy Powell making the argument that a contest heightens division And actually there is a, you know oven ready answer to Ka twenty nineteen. orest junpsonism to replace Kara and actually you can avoid the bitterness of a contest and you know the contest with Bridget Phillipson that you referennce was bitter. All labour contests will end up being bitter And I think there will be and L Town may well be at the forefront as a major labor figure is the party's deputy leader going, let's sk get the contest and just do the coronation. I think that's incredibly presressent. I think that's exactly what is being road tested here. I don't think she's the only person who thinks that. And I think that coronation versus contest is now a structural conflict, which is bubbling up about how to make the leadership shift And just to say something in plain sight when we were thinking about our response to yesterday's revelations, Sam, I think one thing it does do is it makes it harder for those who are attached to the Kia should stay or Kia should stay for quite a long time. mayaybe even the argument that he could see out the next Labor Cerence, I do think it's a harder one now to sustain because we've now just got proof for everyone to read black and white. Tex on green or whatever, that there' been so many doubts about him. It's not just It's not just interpretation So therefore there is a push to get on with it. That's definitely what we heard from West Streeting in his interview at the weekend. I think we're going to hear more people saying that. Andy Burnham posted something didn't a big tilele on social immediately sort of saying something like there's no time to lose along the lines if we need to move all of this along Not everybody does agree with Lucy Powell's view about this avoiding a coronation Because if your basic criticism of the key years is there was a lack of Fresh ideas. It's been a closed shop in number ten essentially. There wasn't enough testing of the ideas and policies on which the government was going to run thenen you just pop in someone else who hasn't even been in Westminster in the case of Andy Burnham, the likely winner you could see that it would look even more closed and an argument that I think streeting is running because he wants to be in the contest, obviously. But is well, if you don't do this, how are you going to say that you in any way faced up to those challenges and also you've got a very difficult job with the public anyway, explaining why you changed Lider. but at least you can say you were able to put people Streeting in Burnham and maybe some others side by side and have a look at them and the labour membership will make its choice. So I don't think it's quite as simple saying that you gain only by avoiding contest. You certainly avoid some conflict. Do you sacrifice some sort of claim to be the renewal. There is an attempt in Bs of the Labour movement to sort of try and avoid division. That's one of the things going on this morning with Mark McVitty, who is from the Labour Growth Group And Matt Lawrence from Commonwealth and he wrote that big essay in the New Statesman about Manchesterism And I think broadly there are two figures who are, you know, big policy brains who are coming together from different wings of the Labour Party to say, there are big ideas that Ati Bedon can implement that we traditionions to the Labour Party could unite around It's essentially, can we fix the foundations, things like energy water, transport, care, local infrastructure, possibly with a more state based solution, public corporations, that kind of thing, in order to make the market know work better in the areas that the market actually can work. That's the s of root of that argument But I think it's interesting their drive just as we had from, you know, the tribune and the growth groups a few weeks ago is to try and present a united Labour partarty behind one candidate. So I think yeah, as you say, it's structural. This is the debate that's going on behind the scenes. Right. well where's all this leaving what people actually thinking of voting If when they ever get the chance.. What scores on the doors on voting intention? Weekly UGv Sky Times Voting intention has reform UK prettyrety much out in front again, twenty seven percent up three Labor and toys tied on eighteen Greens's on fifteen, LibDM's on thirteen and restore, which if you go into the figures is there, unchanged on three. I actually think that, you know, given everything labour time with the Tories in second place on eighteen percent that did remarkably well given Everything and actually the thing that stands out to me is the shine coming off the greens. rememarkably well might be a little. You're right. Optimen bit panglossy in there, os eighteen percent. I mean sorry, reality check. But you know, I think you're right. this is seems to be the baseline. for labour doesn't there? It's not really changed much I think you just get down to a sedimentary layer of labor and that's probably what it is. Conservatives, you could also argue not doing too badly. know we had a look at how they're faring and the fact that they're quite chipper at the moment on the Westminster Insider podcast. But you did at the end of it also think, ye, guys, it's still only eighteen percent The greens, I would guess, are struggling a little bit now that they're out of the limelight as when they are not. fully on the pitch and engaged in some sort of either a contest directly for a seat. and of course, they are there nowadays in pretty much every by election an election. But if the limelight is not on them, then I think that's just difficult for a small party, isn't it? And it's kind of media machine to to stay in the news. I mean Lb DMs also shine off a little bit there at thirteen percent as well. But I mean, I look at this and just keep making the point. It's like looking at something like the German party political landscape in the first part the post system and that's the big crash awaiting us, isn't it? It's really interesting you mention, you know first passast the post, voting systems, electoral systems because Andy Bn, of course, does advocate change on that. But he also leans into another big, big change which is causing a Big row overnight in Labour and maybe we would just end on this quickly. I'm There's a big big old row caused by Neil Lawson. He's the director of Compass. He's quite close to Andy Burnham He gave he did an event at the weekend where he talked about forming a new council of cross party figures to discuss working together to stop reform So you'd have people from Labour, LbDMs, Green, Clyde SMP all working together, swapping ideas basically working out which seats to contest and which seats not to s unofficial pacts in order to stop reform and the right And u The probleblem is that this is a red rag to a bull to a large part of the Labour Party that thinks that labour go putting labour in government and electing as many labor MPs as possible, not cooperating with a kind of progressive majority and trying to help the other parties on the left to beat reform. Labour stands for labour. So labour first, which is one of the sort of right wing labour griefings deliiveing an absolute thumping kick overnight to the Lawson idea, saying, Well, they need to live the change we promised in beat populism by governing with labour and trade union values, we must reject alliances with rival parties. So while policy ideas people are sort of coming together on On this fundamental question of how does politics knit together and how do you fight reform