Labour Leadership Race and Strategy

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Hello, good morning and welcome. It's Monday june first. This afternoon, over a thousand pages of documents, emails and whatsApps to and from Peter Mandelson are going to be released. How bad can it be My name is Anne McKlvoy from Polito. And I'm Sam Coot of Sky News. Well, awkward and uncomfortable are two words used to me about what we're being braced for, rather than resignation worthy. I think it stoped short of that. We'll get the private thoughts of ministers, top officials, political advisers to disgrace peer all go into the public domain. And curiously A, I'm told that initially Some of our friends in those categories didn't hand over the messages that government initially demanded of them, and they had to be asked several times. I wonder if we'll ever find out who that was. That might be an unpopularity contest All electronic communications in the six months prior to Mandelson's appointment and for the duration of his period in office as Ambassador will be included in the data dump Today, we know that one exclusion, however, is material the met police have requested to be held back while they continue to investigate Mandelson for misconduct in public office, so we don't the vechting foil prepared ahead of his appointment To Washington, Dan Blumer Politico wrote a few weeks ago, however, that it's not as much some thought Parliament initially voted for and that that had been agreed to, but then sections damaging to international relations are excluded to some extent from the disclosure. And that I think will still remain controversial. Yeah, We've been hearing over the last twenty four hours from members of the intelligence and seecurity commommittee, Lord Beamish, that's Kevin Jones when he was an MP, who was reassuring people that due process has been followed. We'll make our own minds up a little bit later today. the role of the ISC Intelligence and Security Committee and an interesting one here. government gave them documents and they say they then decided what should and shouldn't be released. But of course that does depend on the government giving them everything in the first place. We'll see whether they all agree that they got everything that they should have done I do understand and we're going to get quite a lot of redactions. There's going to be a lot of black this afternoon because I think that's what will happen to an awful lot of the memos, the internal memos that went backwards and forwards Visa Vis. Peter Mandelson's day job once he became an ambassador. So I do wonder whether bits of this will end up feeling a little bit short changed and just how aggressively the government ended up using that international relations exemption. Yeah, that will be really fascinating to see And the way this is going to roll is Darren Jones, the Chief seecretary to the Prime Minister and also a possible leadership contender we read this morning. So he gets up at some point after three thirty answer questions on the document, judging by what happened last time, the emails will already be released into public domain by that point. so we'll all be pouring over them And Jones himself was in the treasury throughout most of the time that Madelson was Abassador and yet, this is the latest in a long series of statements he's had to make in the Cments Sam on this topic. You can make the argument that he is showing a certain grit here someone who is playing a neutral role when there will be a lot of very strained faces behind him on the labor benches. So I'm wondering if that potential run for the leadership is a kind of masochism strategy. Yes. This is a sense of taking one for the team here from him I'm told that the juicy stuff is still in the disclosures, which is why ultimately has been judged uncomfortable by Those people have been working on the material. But y wonder, Anne How much of what we're about to get will end up being superficially embarrassing. So niceties to Peter Mandelson that now look out of date, given everything that's happened, the fact he's been utterly disgraced, people sucking up to him. and then a sort of slew of opinions offered by Peter Mandelson who really couldn't keep his views on pretty much anything to himself, but were then perhaps politely ignored or part by the recipients of those messages, you know Given the redaction process could be quite heavy handed, I do wonder how much the actual substance that the combinations of Whitehall and the ISC have managed to keep out of our hands. A lot of the worst stuff, by the way, seems to come from the government's preferred method of communication, which is WhatsApp as far as I can glean. So it's sort of print out of WhatsApp messages that will be the stuff that that catches the eye first Again, I have to say Much of Westminster's WhatsApp, as you and I both know, is on the disappearing messages setting, seven days, thirty days. This stuff just doesn't hang around people are pretty careful now And what I think this will mean is that some people turn that setting on and aren't in the firing line and there's not a lot from And some people didn't turn that setting on and we get a lot of messages. So I think it'll feel quite uneven And there's a third category of people who will pretend that disappearing messages were turned on and it turns out that it wasn't. but nobody can ever know because there's no central database. I couldn't get an answer to the question of whether or not Kar Starma's WhatsApps and texts are included in this disclosure. So that'd be one of the first things that we look for a little bit later when I'm sitting next to the big screen from about three thirty this afternoon But I do wonder whether at the end of the day, critics of sort of the Westminster process once again taking the keyboard warriors are taking to their keyboards and accusing Westminster of engaging in an orgy of Titittle tattle but if that's the case, Then I think that willll be a big tick for the new cabinet secretary and Tony Romeo, who would chalk that rather than a mega diplomatic incident that upsets Donald Trump. I think she should chalk that up as a win. There's going to be plenty of armament for the keyboard warriors, whichever side of the keyboard wars they're on today. The political embarrassment is nailed on to be guaranteed. onene person familiar with the files content telling Andrew MacDonald at Playbook this morning that it was going to be toe curling with various public figures private mutterings about each other exposed to the public. And we know that Peter Mandelison was always a major gossip exchange point, Sam. So yeah, we don't expect that that's going to go down without some blushes especially from those who had a trusted and lengthy relationship with him, but the expectation within government wasnt youggest the same thing, I think that the content wouldn't necessarily be so bad that it would lead to any resignations or at least not directly It's also worth noting that we know a lot has been sifted out. So it's worth looking for what is not in the files as well as what is in it And that's before we get to the folk, as you described it, prescient enough to use or cynical enough to use disappearing messages. Although one minister did say to me, you know a lot of us were relatively late to this wheeze to ensure that their thoughts remained temporary as as he put it. It does seem odd that you could still delete messages after the humble address, but There is no way, at least as far as I understand, there's no way that that can be gone after unless you're part of the investigation So the big question seem to me to be how does all this play into the leadership race Does it kybosh any hopes for the Kia succession plans and the runners and riders Does it do fatal damage or not to people we think might be in the frame here for the major embarrassment. So that would probably be the old blare right nowadays, sort of blairite faction such as it is in cabinet and among senior ministers And just one one thing as well, this is I think also a major systemic failure. It did lead to the departure of Ollie Robins at the foreign offffice when Stahmer essentially blamed him for the handling of the vetting all the the vetting. failure and there's also a question that the guuardian is asking, which seem to us the politically a good one as to whether If Mandels was considered a borderline case, which is what the vetting said wasas that in any sense reasonable or did the system fail so utterly that it failed to understand the risk of appointing Peter Mandelson and then also failed to put in the mitigation, so called, whatever they were supposed to be for him to do his job while taking on board that risk. So I think there is a bit more to this than just the red faces. Yeah, well we'll assess that comes out, I do wonder a little bit about the timing of all of this. And at this point, I'm going to sort of pull out and look at the bigger picture of where this government is. A bit of me wonders, well it's not just me. also labour sources were wondering whether or not this couldn't have just happened a little bit earlier to lessen the embarrassment for Kir Stahmer's government And the way I say that is the reason I say that is because we're now firmly in the legacy period of Kir Aarmer's preremiership, I have to say. I believe he's got anything from maybe a few weeks, possibly a few months, but probably a few weeks left in the job And yet here we are. they've left this so late that it's going to dominate one of the sort of three critical weeks that he's got before the Makefield by election on june the eighteenth. And if he's going to sort of you know set out what he's done for the country and even make a pitch to stay in Durning Street for know, perhaps to the other side of summer, I don't think that what's coming today will help his case Last night I was getting complaints from Labour figures that other than the substack essay, there wasn't really much kissced armour last week apart from pictures of him on a football pitch U and As I say, it's hard to make an argument that you need to stay in Daming Street if you're not doing anything. There's no defense investment plan this week, despite the rumors that bubbled up a few days ago in the week of the by election, I think he's at a summit for a couple two, maybe three days. He doesn't look to me like he's got much meaningful time left. So it is quite important that, you know, that he chooses to spend it wisely Sam Cates counting down the Kia Starmer egg timer there. Sam it doesn't sound like you're very convinced by the starmer fight backack, which I take your fightack last week and it was a bit of masterfulul inactivity, apart from that rather chinstroking substat in response to Tony Blair because it was really Tony Blair week, but it doesn't sound like you're remotely convinced by this fightback strategy, which we are still hearing by loyalists from loyalists Kst Dber. Look, count me a skeceptic and I'll explain in a moment why I just don't think that this period of stasis can go on. We've got seventeen days to go to the Makerfield B by election that could trigger a Stummer's departure. So far, we've got the by election candidate, one Andy Burnham, the running man. We've got one self declared leadership candidate in the shape of where streeting and I've been having a look at his campaign, also parallel campaign to what's going on there with Andy Bernam And lots of rumours, figures, including Darren Jones the Masochism man today who has to get up and confront all of this to the government on the Mandelon files Bridget Phipson I think we're hearing might eventually consider entering the face in the eventuality that there is a contest at all. and of course there is still Angela Reno hasn't really made ar one way or the other, what she might do or not. Well, let's hear about the individuals in a moment. But a lot of this, Anne does come down to this question of timetable and when a contest should be if it ever happens because I think that we might end up having transition the Prime Mister sooner rather than later. I've been banging on about this now for a few podcasts. Whatever's being said and whatever is being planned for. Be I saw over the weekend, we've got allies of the Prime Minister and Andy Burnham kind of wondering whether or not there could be a sort of period until conference effectively so he can get his ducks in a row and then hand over at conference, which superficially makes sense But I do wonder about that once we get down to brass tax, and I'm skeptical that a timeline could be that slow. Look ministers over the weekend were telling me again, Officials are telling them that once we get into any greater period of instability or leadership contest, they are effectively in Purder That means that no effective government, no big decisions, nothing controversial can happen and will happen. The civil serervice will just sort of make sure it doesn't happen during that period But I ask again The idea that we wait until October to get a new prime Minister And also not just a new prrime Mister, but cabinet new cabinet figures in each of the big briefs, probably, or at least some of the big briefs you know, no work can start on so many of the most challenging, most difficult issues facing the country until there is a new set of cabineta in place. Are we really going to put everything on hold until October? That's four months time So as much as I read plans for an orderly transition across many months to give Kistmer a polite exit, Well, that's four months that this government can't really afford to put everything on hold That is exactly more or less what Wes treeting needs to happen if he is to turn the coronation of Andy Burnham into a contest that he can take part in I'm which is, you know goal of West Streeting, But Anne, you've been looking at his campaign Is it possible? Do you think he can do it? What's he up to? Well, I just got intrigued by what's going on planet Wres really after the last weeks because it was striking to me there's a bit of a widespread view in Labor that he's essentially blown it by not getting a contest started to oust Staran when he resigned in May as health secretary or didn't have the numbers or you know as far as his campaign is saying, well I had the numbers but wanted to have a fair fight with Andy Burnham, maybe anyway. So I just was intrigued by that. And by the fact that Streeting is conducting what looks like a kind of parallel campaign. He was up in Newcastle last week is very active. I think we'll hear more more of his ideas as we saw some in the Sunday Times interview yesterday that balanced out early sort of lefty wes stuff by talking about wealth taxes and then appealing to the kind of hardline or Romaniac tendency on could you get us back into the EU? But now he seems to be flexing many more reformist muscles. He's critking NI rises, National insurance rises under labour as job killers or stopping young people getting hired. sameame kind of argument Jeremy Hunt is making in his new book, The forer Tory Chancellor Streetings also taking on Ed Milliband over the North Sea. Oilfield saying there is revenue there. Times are a tough you know, we've just got to flex some of our climate change principles and get on with it So it struck me that there's a bit of a war gaming going on on here. What is he trying? to achieve. One is I think to get Kest Starma to move sooner rather than later by keeping pressure on And I think actually streeting does accept your kind of analysis on that you just can't you have this go on forever. The contest, I think, is absolutely what he needs, because obviously coronation is not going to favor him. I watched your video back about the gap in opinion and labour between opinion on Burnhamand and streeting that was a Sky youug go a couple of weeks ago because I watched it again yesterday. And you're right, he's so far ahead with Labour members Burnham that it looks impossible for West streeting. So I did wonder then at the end of year, just a column that I wrotite, whether Does it mean in the end that he's really looking for a role as a big player in a Burnham government and that these interventions are about showing that he can move beyond the health brief because he's intervening on fiscal matters or energy, etcer. and that there's a politeness that he keeps using about competing with Burnham against him, but the word compete It's still in the air as in I'm still here. ye I'm not going anywhere I think that's fascinating I do I think it's for Team Weare treeting to prove a couple of quite hard things. I've heard this business too of how, you know, we can have a polite contest, a polite leadership contest that doesn't need to descend into personal rancor just to sort of kick the tires on various policy positions of differing leadership candidates. I do wonder I've never come across a polite leadership contest or depthity leadership contest in my life. I think just that argument may Let's just say, Westteron may need to prove that's the case. But he also needs to prove that he would be fundamentally different, that there is a need for a contest, that he would be different to Andy Burnham And he needs to do so probably sooner rather than later he has a self denyingud ordinance while the by election is on from actually pointing out the areas of difference between him and Andy Burnham because he doesn't want Andy Burnham to lose the Maker field by election, or at least that's their campaign's position. So it's very hard to justify the need for a contest where you don't know what the differences are because you're deliberately not spelling them out in plain the sight. So I think those are two of the hurdles for the WeS amp but we'll see that like in his defense, I would say that you don't win anything by not making arguments in politics. and he's quite clearly being the person that he wants to be at the moment. and there's not enough of that politics, people who just stake out their policy positions argue them and present them to the party, whether or not the party is receptive or not. and it's kind of quite refreshing to hear people having a batt a bit of a battle of ideas. So I think that's possible, but it's an uphill task. I just wonder on the contest point, whether the argument that he isn't making with Bernam is Aually it's good for you to have me in a contest, know, even if he is facitly accepting that he would not come out That remember the whole that was the whole point, wasn't it? We've got to open up this field of ideas. We've been too closed. Kistamos been in this sort of ellse in war inside number ten, not hearing anything going out outside the walls. So you could see that all of this kind of bouncy dynamic, Wes is everywhere. He's bouncing around ideas, someome of them seem to be in slight tension, but that's where's treating But at least it does have dynamics to it. and that you could then say that he's basically doesn't need to challenge Burnham's ideas. He just needs to say If you don't take these on board, it will look like you didn't want to listen and you don't want to go back there again. So I suppose that is one way in which they could some point sit down over some health giving sports drink because they run nearly as much as you that they could come to some sort of terms about contest. I don't want to say inverted commerce, but one in which you know would allow both Wes to lay out his ideas and Andy Burnham to show that he didn't take it for granted because there' a little bit of a criticism about that on the papers today as well. know