Cultural issues and future policy tests

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Sky News, The full story first Hello, good morning and welcome. It's Thursday may twenty first. The House will break up today for the Whitsen recess and not resume until the first of June, but there is a lot to pack in. The former Prince Andrew back to the forefront of attention We're set to get a document dump today, my nocturnal colleague, Andrew MacDonald at Playbook, confirming last night aboutbout a dozen files relating to the disgraced former prince will be released at some point lately this morning, and they should shed some light on the discussions in the Blair goovernment. over his appointment as trade envoy. and of course the role of Peter Mandelson Oh God, not another lot of mandles and documents What else is there? Rachel Reeves is doing another intervention on the cost of living. The government is set to finally publish guidance following the Supreme Court ruling on the meaning of sex in the Equality Act and MPs finding out whether assisted dying legislation is about to be revived. Yes, it is a bumper day I'm An McKlvoy from Politico. And I'm Sam Cos of Skley News, you pack in so much on these last days before a little It's fect to be half term break. We'll be back after the bank holiday next week for an addition on Tuesday, but just Tuesday. But it's you can see why there's a little pause because I think things are going accelerate again once MPs get back. There is a growing consensus, I think, about what's about to happen amongst ministers, MPs, civil servants, I've been talking to loads of people in the last few days And I know that Westminster consensus is a dangerous thing, but the presumption sort of central scenario for what happens is pretty settled that is that if Andy Burnham wins the by election in Makerfield, then things could move quite fast for him. And the ultimate consequence is we could now have a change of Prime Minister before the summer It doesn't feel to me wh they say in public that Kirarmer would put up much of a fight. He might put give a timetable, but we'll hear more from him after the june eighteenth by election date And it's not clear to me anyone will stand in Andy Burnham's way. We see from the front page of the Times West Streeting wouldn't stand in a contest. Interestingly, I think his team would deny this at the moment. and he'll go to his political grave insisting he has the numbers, But after last week, does anyone believe him? But all of that could well mean that we actually get on with the job of changing Prime Minister pre summer because so much is stuck until we do that We've got more Burnham studies in the podcast later on how his team are seeing all of that and their preparations. But one figure who seems to have just decided to enjoy the job while it lasts is Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor. reception in number eleven for sixty MPs last night, more announcements today. She's been writing op eds She's now on TikTok, a smiley mini video about helping the country with the cost of living and traveling around So here is the Chancellor amid all of those admes. Hi TikTk. I want you to be the first to know that this summer for kids aged between five and fifteen, there's going to be free bus travel in England. And this is just one of the things that we are doing to help people with the cost of living in these uncertain times I'd say Anne, as the rest of Whitehall feels to me to be frankly pretty listless. I love the energy she's suddenly got for all of those three hundred followers on TikTok that have signed up to her account, some way to go before she gets the seventy five million of Billy Eilish. but you know, it's important to aim high an appearance on sccreenrock backck on I'm sure Jacob and Jake will be kind if you know you know. But so welcome to a new phenomenon And if likely, you don't know at all what Sam Gates has just been talking about, you then move on to talk about speculation because I'm from the O worldld. and I'm going to talk instead about speculation on a Burnham preremiership and do the job of Chancellor. would go to and there's a lot of noise around Ed Milliband getting that role if indeed Manchester Man makes it back to the south and the FT reporting that Ed Milliband has played a key role advising Andy Burnham to commit to fiscal discipline in the last few days as Burnham sorts out which bits of the existing Starmer Reeve's agenda he's going to adopt and which bits he'd be expected to dump Yeah, there's a lot of money going on Edmund the Bander's Andy Berham's Chancellor. I wouldn't dismiss alternative candidates. just look out for Shaban Mahmud going to the treasury. She's a fiscal hawk who could reassure the market. And another person who looks like they're making a bid, a press release has opp in my inbox at this morning from Wes, yes, I've really got the numbers streeting, pledging to introduce a wealth tax that works. Now. It is a detailed complicated plan about various bits of capital gains, but I think that will simply be seen as not as his press release said, a bid for the leadership, but his bid for the Chancellor's chair Now interestnteresting because if you say it revives that what can you do with CGT but to get some more squeez tax out of it, but really it is being presented as a wealth tax. So he seems to be really positioning himself a bit more towards that kind of left view of wealth on that one Elsewhere, self inflicted wounds from the government. The big topic, I'm actually at a big security conference in Prague S the big topic here and elsewhere across Europe and certainly into Ukraine is the easing of sanctions on Russian oil processed in third countries amid concern about supplies of jet fuel and the cost of Living So emergency measures on that, yes, but absolutely rowing back against the passionate embrace of sanctions, which Kist Darma got personersal plaudits from Volodymyir Zelensky only recently. So the Department of Business and Trade blindsided the rest of White Hall by slipping out a statement on Tuesday stating that it would allow these imports of relevant processed oil products from Wednesday and both on the facts of that and on the way it emerged a massive political row This blew my mind For two reasons, I mean, first of all, ministers have spent months telling us there's not a problem with jet fuel, right? And there they are taking emergency measures because of potential supply problems with jet fuel moreore importantly, you know, if Kirammer's reputation legacy stands for one thing and one thing only. It's his role on the foreign stage, particularly standing up toia Russia. So this does incredible damage all sorts of sort of knock on effects for this sort of DBT Department of Business and Trade authored kind of move Foreign Secretary Ette Keper literally on her way to a foreign minister's conference as this all broke to tell other foreign ministers they needed to do more on sanctions on Russia, right How embarrassing is that? right? Backlash was immediate and intense like we saw Ukrainian ministers way in, but I understand that other countries were on the phone within hours going. What on earth are you doing? particularly those who are more on the front line against Russia, just, you know, immediately picking up their phone to Britain going, hang on. this is a complete mix signal contradiction But I've learned something else at President Zelenssky is actually going around Europe Union capitals this week. and there were hopes that he might check in and come to the UK on Friday. Now there's not a fully fledged announced plan. We would have noticed that. but there were hopes in Whitehall that we'd get a visit Yesterday morning Around the time that Ukrainian ministers were weighing in on social media, word came that the visit was now much more unlikely. Now, I can't call the visit as being cancelled for good and there was no firm plan in the first place. And there's a chance that it was all patched up in the late night call between Stombber and Zelensky last night. so we'll see That's the scale of the damage that Peter Carl's department inflicted on the rest of Ryal It's an odd sluag of this one, isn't it? I mean because it is true it is Kyle's department But it would appear The Starmer has also shifted his Stan to mean, he must have known about this. so if we're allowing imports of jet fuel and diesel made from Russian oil refined in other countries, but that's just the way these things work And then having it come out the way it did, it just looks like very unjoined up government unless there was just a nobody really wanted to be the one to announce it. I mean, that's my slightly cynical view of this. Now that the Prime Minister is having to say and make clear at PMQs yesterday, he's not lifting sanctions on Russian oil in any way whatsoever Well it appears at the same time that we just did, I suppose the only way out of it is just to say this is very temporary, but if you notice there's no timeline put on this. So the whole thing has just turned into a very confusing story. And as you point out, someamone, I'm around here with with some officials from the G seven countri who had also been at this meeting in Paris of finance ministers on Monday, and the topic didn't appear to have been raised there. And that has very much flumixed the major allies. Now since then we've had that apology via Chris Bryan, a trade minister, but I suppose speaking on behalf of his department really overall, saying the way that this has emerged was clumsy and that it will be revoked or suspended as soon as possible. But then what does that mean? I mean, either you're short of jet fuel enough to do this or you're not And clumsy is really about the communications and the manner of it. whereereas exactly back to what you're saying, for Vlodyimyr Zelensky, for Ukraine and also very close allies, they just think it's the wrong thing to do in the first place. It's not the way you did it that's wrong. That's absolutely fascinating. By the way, can we just pause for a moment on the subject of the UK annoying the hell out of our European partners at the moment Right. you're sitting in Prague, but if you're sitting in Berlin or Paris or Dublin or Warsaw You're watching an incredible series of mixed signals coming out of the UK on a number of things, but particularly our relationship with the EU You know, you've got rejoin, not rejoin the single market, not single market customers and blah, blah, blah blah. And then promises from Tourys and reform to unpick anything that that's agreed now All of this is coming to a head, Anne, because Kir Stahmer, remember him, demanded a big EU summit this side of the summer And you know, we're running out of timeing, right? and I understand that they're probably going to announce the date next week. One date penciled it is around july the thirteh also that's a Monday, might be. A few days either side of that, but sometime around then Look expectations in White Hall are already incredibly low for this summit. They're not sure that there's a lot to announce perhaps just redoing the announcement on getting rid of food and drink and agriculture borders known as phytosanitary standards SPS. But Even there If you're sitting in a European capital wondering just how much to give the UK at the moment, all that uncertainty is just going to mean the answer is not very much. And if you don't even know who the Prime Mister is, you're not really sure what their policy position is then you're just less likely to play ball. So, you know, maybe You know, this summit is the moment that Andy Berham introduces himself to you know, Ersveondline and potentially some mother European leaders if you if more turn up, although it tends to be just the European Commission. chief that leads it But in substance terms, you know, I think all of this argument gets pushed back in terms of the UK's relationship with the EU. I'm now trying to imagine this little von de Lyion game, not another one I think it is looking a bit like, you know the youth mobility scheme is going to have to be the pesta resistance. it's going to really have to work. pooor Nick Thomas Simmondons has been b. crafting away at this summit for most of his adult life, but as you suggesting, I think that's the logic of where we are that a prime minister without authority, struggles to lead the system. the system then becomes very diffuse, although the idea of rejoying a lot of Senior you figa saying to me this week you're not really going to rejoin if ever are you? And you know, so at the same time you've raised all of these things while, you we have some very serious stuff be dealing with not least Ukraine and of course st of of Hormouz, but it does now also flick attention, doesn't it to Andy Burnham and What would he actually actually do if he were, as you suggested at the top of the podcast? It could end up in number ten very fast indeed. So Dan Bim Politico has a piece up today on the behind the scenes peddling on all of that from almost feels like a Burnham administration in waiting. It would be very disappointing if he doesn't make it in the by election for them. and pointing out that they're trying to do three things at once. got it we're in the by election any leadership election done and dusted, it could fall away, but you never know and a transition to government and a source there saying it's got to be done and knitted together in a way that works for all of these audiences for Makerfield, the Labour Party and the country. And of course there is an option that he could be Prime Minister within days as happened when Rishi Sunak caght the crown in twenty two. Just one thing on your really good point about the rest of the world and Europe, particularly not knowing what we stand for someone who spoke with Dan saying that Burnham would not likely to be doing a lot of foreign policy in the way that Kia Stahmak clearly owned it and eared the Kia miles saying that they thought this is somewone close to Andy Burnham, that he'd be the opposite. He would do not much foreign travel as little as humanly possible And the foreign seecretary therefore would be a really big appointment, which is interesting and also the suggestion that it could be a different foreign secretary. who knows That is very interesting Andy Benham is going to have to move at pace. There's no doubt about that There's a couple of issues that are going to be caught hard on the news agenda later today, which I think are great tests of where he comes out on stuff. They' two issues that are cultural issues and they're issues where There's no way of avoiding a row over what he thinks because peopleople are just very divided. One is how you deal with single sex spaces in the light of the trans rights row because we've got the equality and human rights guidance being published by government following the Supreme Court verdict on single sex basaces last year. Weve wait a long time for that. And the other is there's the private members' bill Balla over in the Cons and there's pressure on whoever comes out quite high in that to pick up Kim Leedbeaters's assisted dying bill And on both, there are basically quite a lot of calls for Burnham to clarify his views. The times go in quite hard on Burnham pointing out that he once said that the notion of single sex spaces was a minority view and called for transgender women to be able to use female toilets m Now, I am told that Andy Burnham will clarify his view on all of this area to do with the guidance from ten o'clock this morning on his BBC Manchester phone in So that is very much on his agenda. So, you know We'll see where he lands on that But we don't have a position on assisted dying I really struggle to think that MPs are going to want to go through all of that again at a point where the whole of the rest of the political system broken, you know, the idea that an NP iss going to put their hand up and go, I want to be the face of one of the most contentious issues at a point where Our political system can't do the basics feels unlikely to me, but there's a lot of lobbying on both sides. It' be interesting when Berham gets back into that hot seat. he dropped out last week, didnidn't he? but he was figuring out what to do and how to do it. I think also you can feel the mood around this and the way that labour has struggled with the single sex Sace' question, Sam that I think the days are gone when you can just keep fudging it and keep trying to sort of, you know so you know I'm going to take both positions at once and just tell everyone to be kind. I think people want some clarity on where people stand. It' obviously it's hugely contentious and very difficult subject, and I think particularly for a lot of people on the left of Center, but we're quite interesting to see like when Andy Berham has to talk about something he really doesn't want to talk about How will his communication style come off? because this week he's actually been able to toold the Cch on his own terms, hasn't he? So I I'd really intrigued to how that goes One of the biggest political things he did this week was a total U turn on his fiscal position Bloomberg interview six months ago, where he was suggesting fiscal rules might have to change You saw a pamphlet by the soft left group of MPs suggesting over time, fiscal rules need to be looked at. but he absolutely committed, his team absolutely committed to the fiscal rules staying as they are onene of the biggest things in politics and he's totally changed his view, but with very little political heat in that moment, it won't be as easy to do things like that in future