Reform UK and Immigration Policy

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Hello, good morning and welcome. It's Wednesday june twenty fourth. Another big Blair era political figure is about to reenter our politics. James Poneneell, minister under Mister Tony, cabinet mininister under Gordon Brown, is set to be made Andy Burnham's Chief of staff. In the last twenty four hours, I've talked to so many people say they were sworn to secrecy about the appointment. It turned out not to be a very good secret after all. Last night representives of Business and Finance worldorld told me that the appointment would be a major reassurance about the Berlin goovernment to them. My name is Sam Coate of Sky News. And I'm Anne Nicelvoy from Politico Pernell is a close friend of Andy Burnham, first a spepecial advisor in Downing Street back in nineteen ninety seven when Tony Blair walked through the door of number ten. He was a pensions minister, later a culture Secretary to under Gordon Brown and then working pensions secretary before McCarzney resignationation in two thousand nine designed to unseat brown. Well that fail but Penal' just one of those Bairrightes who never entirely leaves the labour stage, however many jobs they may have in between and he's had a few. And I've known him sam through this pinopoly of different existences. But number ten just seems to be the place they all want to head back to Will it work out better this time than it did for his old school friend Tim Allen? He was in fact Allen's best many G Gone Head of commommunications for Kir Stahmer. Oh, that's interesting. After leaving Parliament, he moved to the BBC to oversee strategy and he was director of radio. And then he ran the University of Arts, London for his most recent job running the major business advisory firm called Flint Global. And we discussed a couple of weeks ago whether he might be in line for this job At that point, and I was kind of of the view was being led to the view that Glockney earned so much money and had such a large sort of slice of the equity of the pie of Flint Global which is one of the bigger, more successful advisory firms that he wasn't going to give up possibly millions in order to take this job, but it seems that he is about to take one hell of a pay cut in order to enter number ten. It does speak to the fact, doesn't it, that you just cannot take that drive to give it one more go. try make a labor government work. And it's telling that the most senior figures around Andy Burnham, those running his by election campaign have been MPs. he hasn't known them for that long or they've attached themselves to his Manchester project But now we're seeing a different side of burnham and I in a way, quite gratified to see this appointment of James Pinel because I had a sort instinct that Andy Burnham would reach back. But you know, I wasn't sure that he would do this. He could say he'd moved on that people don't want to see the Blair crowd anymore. But I think there is, you know, there is just something that binds those people that Burnham was always, I think was a slightly thinner brew of of blairism than say James Binneell, Tim Allen and and others, but they do all in some way hang out together. They see a lot of each other. and I think they even played together football in the new Labor demonized team back in the day So it's yeah, there's going to be a lot of those old references, but how is it going to be leveraged the problems Andy Burnham has now. Well, in one sense, it does start to answer the question of whether or not Andy Burnham will just represent one wing of the Labour Party or a sort of slightly broader church. I know labels like Blairright, the ones that you've just used are sort of a little bit unhelpful these days, but they remain kind of deep in the psyche of the Labour Party and so we do still sort of reach for them. And while we're on the subject of labels, In a remarkable piece of serendipity and a great piece of journalism, James Pennell actually appeared on camera last night to talk about Andy Burnham. It was in a piece by Gary Gibbon of Channel four News And he's a fabulous watch this film, but he was asked about Andy Burnham's politics and he said that he thought that Andy Burnham, is James Panneellll speaking, he thought that Andy Burnham was a blunky tyight who's of course, the Hard as Nails former Labour homeome secretary. So that's the image that James Pannell thinks should be projected by Andy Burnham, Rather hilariously Gary then cuts to an interview that he does with David Blunkett who says, no he's not. But that's I think rather by the by, but it's all well worth a watch. That's a very David Blunket thing to do. And I think you are right to maybe remind us to put aside some of the Iss and Ies for a second at least Because I would see Penel as one of the Pussy midlife labour elites who hail from the Bare to Brown years have had their differences about jobs they had and and who they served But they see themselves really as deliiverers and what they think is that the party has gone off track in over foocusing on listening to its own playlist if I could't All the stuff about you Here are my values and when you understand how great my values are, you'll vote for me. And I just remember one of their number saying to me, there is always this delta that you have to deal with in the Labour Party, there are people who who will come to it because you say the right things for what they want it to be, for their values and the others who would say, can we just get elected? And we can get things done. And I think one of the things that Berham will will'll have to do is try to pull that delta closer together because I think that's what's gone a bit wrong into Alia. The other thing I would say, mean just having seen these chief of staff roles, which he seems to be nailed on for down the years, going back those near thirty years, is had changed quite a lot. If you look at Morgan McSweeny, he was more like a conciigiarary Pina. an arch strategist And I think Pna will go back and do it slightly different way and it was more in the way that it was done under Bear, but obviously modernized for whatever is needed now. And that's driver and facilitator of big pololicy wins That's where his work in pensions background, which is quite deep and he's still deep interest in will come into e let's remind ourselves. you he's been pretty radical over the years. I think he felt his job as pensions seecretary work in pensions was unfinished Oh fell out with the Gordon Brown vision by two thousand nine. He then went on to author of pamphlet around twenty eleven. and went on TV talking about it call for cs to winter fuel allowances, Oops, I doubt he's going be doing that one didn't you thought you could pay for lots of changes in the welfare system are getting rid of some free bus passes TV licenses. So ye he was in that zone of I called them the laborators, sort of laboratory hybrids who were looking for things to reform and how to do it Painful to the Labor backack bench view of what should happen. interesting Has he mellowed in the meantime? see? We will find out. What's interesting, Anne, I think at the moment is actually I think inside the Parliamentary Labour Party, there's a pretty widespread recognition that they've got completely on the wrong side of the welfare debate. It's now routinely an attack from the Tourriies and for reform And I think after the Alan Milbourne report about young people and work business, there's a desire to move quite quickly on that Andy Burnham is installed. You know, there is just a big bold kind of settlement that could be offered by an incoming prrime mininister prepared to use some of his comp political capital to do traditionally difficult stuff you know on the labor side, something that Kirstan was just abjectly unable to do after last year's welfare defeat. So I think I do think this business of the welfare background of Jamespena is important, not because he'll be taking the decisions, but because he understands how it works he' able to navigate it and you'll have some sense of both the technical aspects of it and what represents a landmine in labour circles. So that's so I am putting at the top of my watch list for Andy Burn government. Big stuff on welfare I'm Interesting fact sent to me last night by a labour figure wants the name Penell emerged. Andy Bennerman Jose Panell, the very first chair and vice chair of the newly established all Parliamentary partarty group for private equity and venture Capital when there were new MPs. So that's one of the reasons's just they're not kind of particularly authoritative weighty groups, but it is a signal. to you know, the business and finance community about the kind of things that they understand and appreciate, which again is not completely the sort of soft left cliche that you get from some castings of Andy Burnham. You would expect though that this could have to be some balance in this system, isn't there for Andy Burnham and for those who've backed him up to this point, more from the soft left wing of Labour to be happy because this is giving it fairly sort of good welcome here to James Pinenell coming back. I think a lot of people will have some concerns, Sam about what this means for the welfare debate in labour. How is it going to be reframed? The signs are that his old friend Pat McFerden, who's in post, of course, at least for now, as welfare secretaries, that there's big change coming. I think you're absolutely right about that And yet how far How they go to shake off the failures that really dogged Kia Stahmer once he couldn't get those reforms to the benefits system? through there's a side of the Perel argument, which I think over the years moves much more towards the system that we have in the UK. It's just very easy to end up with a ratchet effect. benefits and people relying more on benefits than going to work just because the incentives are poorly aligned. And he got very interested at one point in this Bismarkeian Europeanrib contributory so early to say that, a system where the public feels greater connection between what it pays into the system and what it gets in return. It's more of an insurance idea. Now that's never really flown in the UK. That would be a massive reform. Personally, I doubt that there's even time to do that because it looks like a two to two and a half year roll up to the next election We will see, I think, quite an interesting constellation there. Who are they going to work with as Chancellor? Right, Zombie government latest. we now know that Darren Jones as everyone expected isn't going to stand for the leadership. cllims he was never going to stand for the leadership, but Al Kens is still mulling it, still hinting still showing a little bit of flesh. but again, can't see him getting the numbers, so I think that's all a flight of fantasy. At midday, we see the artist forming know Kistama for the first time since his tearful farewell. Yesterday a note went round from Cabinet Secretary Antonio Romeo, saying that there's no major government announcements until the new Prime Minister is in place But there's one big exception, which is on a lot of the front pages this morning, the deffense investment planl released before the NATOs summit still A lot of people An are suggesting this is the source of a big row between Andy Burnham and Kirst Armer But you know what? I'm just not sure. I can't see any quotes to that effect in the papers. And the logic to me just isn't quite there. As emerged yesterday, Kizarmer and Andy Burnham are actually having meetings. and Stahmer has opened the door of Whitehall to Andy Burnham saying that he should get access talkks to the civil serervice in the sort of interregnum So of course, Andy Burnerham can come back later and top up the defefense investment plan. be the case that Andy Berham would relish Donald Trump going at Kst Amor at the NATO summit in a couple of weeks time That is not in Britain's national interest. So is he really opposed to something coming out before them? I'm just a bit a bit skeptical and this fact of everybody playing nicely behind the scenes suggests to me and the lack of quotes suggesting a row. off course they can come and change some of the sums later on, but but I just wonder whether it's It's quite as tense as as I read. you know, I think the fact that every other announcement has been paused It tells you that the government isn't trying to be difficult to the incoming Andy Burnham administration. And according to Playbook, Burnham still lies he wants to go beyond Starmer's thirteen point five billion settlement to that proposed settlement sum that caused the walkout of the Defense Secretary John Healley and that John Hy has been sounded out and find a way to get the uplift towards meeting the Russia threat. I mean one thing, I think for sure You are re pretty sure, right that there hasn't been as much of a busos stop as was perhaps being suggested between Starmer and Burnham. But I think Burnham knows full well, also in terms of his positioning as well as what may be the right thing to do, that he has to be seen to be really implacable on the Russia threat and that if he doesn't, you know he will be seen to have landed. There is an attack line already on Burnham that he's not very well prepared for this job and if he comes in looking like he's at all wobbly on this big national security matter and how to fund the defense, I think that could go very badly for him. So the final funding for the Defense invvestment plan does not appear to have been settled so says my colleague, Mason Boycott O, who follows a lot of these defense things. And he goes on to say that Dan Jarvis as the new defeense seecretary is still leaning on the treasury to get a bigger settlement. Personally, I don't see the treasury being able to resist this because when you just look at what happened, last time there was a stalemate, and the entire government imploded. So the precedent here is somehow to find as he say somethingomething you can work with now probably look to bt on more spending once Andy Burnham gets into place, gets all his fiscal advice about maybe where he could flex and where he could take a different view of those iron clad rules that strangled Rachel Reeves. Right, a little bit of a handbak, Tyron. Other parties are all trying to work out how to deal with Andy Burnham. None more important try to reform UK because I think a lot of MPs think that Andy Bernerman's arrival heralds a you know, more robust approach to reform. You sat down with Robert Genereick yesterday and you got him to talk about Andy Burnham let's listen to that. You need to have someomeone coming in with a very clear idea of how are we going to actually fix the country A set of Sious, well thought through plans to do that Go and put that to the people. That's what Nigel, that's what reform stands for And it feels to me as if Andy Burnham is just trying to cruise in. to number ten. without any idea what he's going to do. I couldn't tell you. I mean perhaps you can and what he's planning to do. It sounds to me as if it's just going to end up being continuity kissed armor that you're going to end with in Andy Burnham basically kissed armor in a dodgy polo shirt And he stands for exactly the same kind of pol. It tells you about his polo shit? Well Look it's just vibes, doesnn't it? It's basically the same politics that has failed this country for more than just two years for a very long time dressed up in a slightly more human way. Yes, Robert Jenick, floor crosser, treasury spokesman Sadow Chancellor, as at least as reform would like to see it. Interesting to hear what he thought, Sam about how to approach the early Burnham years. So he went off on the line as we've heard, about a continuity. Kia Stahmer mocked the new Makerfield's dress down style thing basically Kia Starmer in a dodgy polo shirt, We you know then had a discussion about what was dodgy about a polo shirt. Ironically I then got into the lift with Robert Jenrick in Reform HQ and three guys got in all wearing polo shirts in the Silence descended in the elevator. The line is to call for an election. We had a long riff on that. That's unsurprising if you're the challenger party Maybe what stuck with me was that Genrick was badging Andy Berham Not so much as a big soft lefty threat. But just more drery here, the knock about had a purpose, I think, which was to say we've had a lot of failures. He acknowledged a lot of failures since Brexit while he defended Brexit But it was very much along the lines of now it's time to do the radical thing wa two more years or so with this guy in the polish shirt. It's not to make any difference. Move rightwards do the radical thing. It'd be quite interesting if that remains the the line that reform runs on in the Burnam ira. So one of the really fascinating things about reform at the moment is the kind of spats that we've had between Generic and Zia Yusf. and they sort of around just how tough to be on migration policy. We know they want to abolish and definitely to remain, only admit high skilled people on visas you know and you got into the territory of the fact that they will not allow people to get You know the sort of visas, the rare visas that they'll sprinkle a few of for high skill people if you're in social housing. And the question was always just how much Generick would leave into the very toughest. of policy positions such as deportation, including deportation of families with children. And that's what you got into with him. this is ninety seconds of your exchange with him. It's quite something. You can't say in all good conscience that a British military veteran or a British victim of domestic abuse be living on the streets or in precarious temporary accommodation. and then there's somebody who's a more recent arrival to the UK who's not a British citizen who gets the house. But leave to remain. They would have in many cases children with them How do you see I mean you see was seemry as a reasonable person, How would you feel about deportations and how that was supposed to happen And what that would require in terms of basically a use of pretty much of some form of state coercion for that Well, if you have no legal right to be in the UK, then you have to leave, don't you? But I suspect the vast majority of the people will leave voluntarily. are are reasonable people, they'll realize that they no longer have a right to remain in the UK and they'll choose to leave of their own accord. But if you're asking me Will there also be the need for some people to be deported? Yes, absolutely. And that happens in every other country in the world It's a curious mindset that we've got ourselves in in this country where we seem to be prioritizing the interests of people who are not British citizens. over those of our own. you would have people who were living in cancellment or social housing, who would have children, some of whom would have been born here who would be deported? Well, if their parents have no right to be in the country, then yes, I mean that' loical, isn't it? We say saying the people who are illeal migrants Well children also have cled citizenship Well, I don't think there's I mean, there's no reason why people who are not British citizens who do not meet our economic tests should be allowed to stay in the UK. Yeah, it was a bit of a tussle by the end, because I was just trying to get some clarity on it, but what I took from it, don if you read it the same way, Sam, I did think he bent quite a lot towards the Ziause of position over who would potentially be on the block for reform deportations if indefinite leave to remain is abolished and the party is pledging to do that. pushing him on and this was obviously for people in council or social housing was that that is pretty hard to deliver. whher one thinks it's a good idea or morally acceptable or not, but what happens if you've got a UK born partner with UK citizenship, your children are also UK citizens. What would happen then? And I think he then did a bit of a segue into saying, o well peopleeople will get the message and they will either get private sector accommodation and we should free up council social housing for native Brits who need it most. was you that was quite a signal. But he wasn't giving ground on that. He said deportations were fully okay. He's not at all scared of the D word. And I think what we're going to see is quite a line there between reform and restore who would even further and faster and the other parties on what that would look like. But reform will have to fill out some of if this is what they want How you go about it, how you enforce it? that's still going to be a huge talking point. You can listen to that interview, by the way, in a special edition of the pololito podcast Westminster insider. It's in your feeds now with lots of other bits of Robert Genrick thinking, including his plans for a deregulatory big bang if they win power, that would be