Global Diplomacy and the G7 Summit

Hello, good morning and welcome. It's Monday, june the fifteenth. Kir Starmer embarks on a programme of frenetic activity today to prove that there's political fuel in the tank still. withith a press conferencer just after eight AM this morning banning under sixens from social media apps heading to France for the G seven. Up to ten social media apps will be banned, including TikTok and Snapchat, but not WhatsApp.'s a pity, meaning that you can vote at seventeen but not doom sccroll. My name is Sam Coat of Sky News. And I'm Anne McKlvoy from Politico. I've been in Geneva's version of the full metal lockdown as the French Swiss border gets ready for the G seven landmark summit hours after the U.S and Iran. announced they'd reached a peace deal and the reopening of the Straits of Hormz. The details of that are still under wraps, but it will be signed in Switzerland. We hear the markets already jumping with a small amount of joy at the prospect of economic gloom lifting. Yeah, fininally, after four very long months of relief. I was looking back. The assassination Ayatollah Homini took place on february twenty eighth and that's how long it's been with all the economic pain and global turmoil that's followed. And of course, that should be good news for a Prime Minister with an eye on future months, but it's not clear that that's what Kirara actually has. We'll get to the social media ban and other things going on and global affairs in a moment. But first, let's just talk about where we are with our current prime Minister who has four days to go until his nemesis could be elected in the by election in Makerfield great in Manchester, officially We are being told it's business as usual, but nobody, nobody believes that. It's our first podcast outing since the shock resignation of John Healy, the Defense seecretary who left accusing Kir Stama of failing to fund the defence budget adequately and indeed of making Britain less safe also claiming that he made promises on the international stage that he didn't keep it at home Any hope of a fight back appears pretty doomed after one of the most loyal and dependable members of the cabinet trashed his reputation on security justice the Prime Minister heads for G seven and the upcoming NATO summit. Yeah. mean Resignation of John Healley feels like something that just solidified where we were already going but has has sort of put the prime ministers future on a sort of more decisive path towards the exit door, I thought. The Brmers heard of the resignation on Thursday morning while he was at Checers. He was apparently mulling his by election fight backack. And, you know, news came through from his senior aid that that Healley had gone But at that point, on Thursday, when they apparently didn't speak to him. which I think tells you a little bit about how Kir Stara sometimes does politics in syable solo fashion than many people. u other in his position would do But I suppose the question is what do we know about his state of mind now? I think that solo point is a really interesting one, Sam. he doesn't try to talk people around. We've seen this pattern again and again. I think when he feels that he's under attack or someone has leted him down, be it we' streeting now, John Healley. He gets that kind of quickly. theapace around me doesn't reach out to them. It's often quite difficult in these situations aides of the Prime Minister, I think have said in the past that they found it quite hard to access him what he then does is plow on and then work all the hours God sends on other things that are in front of him. By chance, I also spent a lot of time with an old friend of Starmer going back to his university labour days. and it's interesting listening to that person talking about how it reminds us of the way that the K Stammer of his formative political years and the Kirstammer of now still very connected to They were describing to me the fact that from earlier student politics, sometimes lives, shall we say on a plane that is can be a little adjacent to what happens when you get real political power, but that he had this steeeeliness. he was very defiant. He often took up cases. He didn't particularly want others to knock him O course, he was not the biggest compromiser in those days. They also said he was very used to adversity and that he tended to think that tooughing things out was the answer two challenges That reminded me of the quote that he's given allowed to be given on his behalf on the record, It's my duty to stay around as Prime Minister conflating if you like his own interest with labours and the countries. So I had a bit of a dive yesterday. I was writing a column into what would happen if and when Andy Berer announces he's running for the job and I think they do have to sit down together, it may or may not turn into a contest. It may go another way, but there is a real danger for labour. It it just reminded me hearing about Stoma's personality He emerges from this, simply feeling he's been discarded. there will be great bitterness and that Labour needs to be quite careful about how it handles that, th the matticide of Margaret Thatcher lefts scars in her party for years. Can that be avoided in labour? I mean, I think it's a great question It's interesting, isn't it? You know, somebody's qualities that acts of a strength when they're in a strong position, like that kind of robustness can seem like a negative quality when they're in trouble, you know, churishness, weakness I thought we learned quite a lot about Kstama's state of mind over the last few days. and you talk about the need to treat Kstarma with dignity that there is also a question about whether or not he's sting that and that's also ended up causing quite a lot of damage to the Labour Party One of the biggest pieces of evidence of where his head is in recent days And I think a lot of Labour MPs saw this and and from the ones I talked to slightly recoiled to it was the absolute chlishness in the tone of his letter replying to John Heeeley's resignation. Now I know that John Heeley had done sort of damage in the way in the manner that he had departed from the cabinet, saying that there wasn't enough spending that Kist done was was leaving the country less safe H Tummer you know needs to understand that in the thirty years that John Hillley hass been serving the Labour P partarty, he's generally seen as a able and loyal foot soldier who had defended Kistab on many, many occasions in the past. and Any sign of petulence of the Prime Mister and there was a tone of petilence about it, I thought will, well, I was told it was pushing people towards opponents and does not look like the kind of dignity that goes with office. And there was a further set of claims over the weekend that in this drive to get more money, even more money for the defefense investment plan with now Dan Jarvis as defefense seecretary we could be in a world where figures like Ed Milliban, Svona Ramouud being pushed for more cash and we could even be in a situation where almost deliberately pushed into resesigning orr the Prime Minister in the showow of Strength could just sack them for disloyalty, perceived disloyalty for both of those having relationships with Andy Burham while serving in his cabinet, that kind of wild and slightly out of control stubbornness, I think doesnn't help his position. However sorry, I think Labour and peace feel about him and and I do think there is on one level sympathy, but he's got to be careful not to drain that. Yeah, that's interesting. I'm slightly thinking if they don't come up with some sort of plan. It's not about feeling sorry for Kiiaama or not feeling sorry for Kiaama, that the whole kind of Burnham succession might be underweighting the fact that you're just going to have as you point out someone who can be a bit vengeful can feel churlish doesn't hold back when he feels that he's been wronged. sitting outside the tent. So he's going to need Andy Benhami going to need his allies. It' be interesting who stays in the bunker With Starmer towards the end, it does appear there was some sort of disagreement with Rachel Reeves over defense investment. though in the end, he was not prepared to overrule his chancell. I think there's always been a sense that Starmer, I was about to say Karma, Karma might be coming for us quite soon in this Starmer feels her ironclad fiscal rules are the s safety rail of his premiership The businessiness secretary, Peter Kyle has been pretty much openly wondering if he can stay in his job if there his a contest were heated back. his friend was streeting. The A atttorney General Richard Hermmer, I think we know will be in there until the end as the prime ally. Nick Thomas Simmons still trying to get his Europe reconnection over the line before any change at the top is described as having the role of chief Cira upper of Kia to me, they do text a lot about football results, which this podcast is passing over lightightly. Sam anyone else on your radar? Ministers have taken to texting the prrime Minister out football in order to keep his spirits up. That's how they cheer him up, apparently. Wow That was an absolute shocker. Did you say that accord? What a referee. I've also told, I think Rachel Reeves is, yes an ally but she's not in the bunker. She knows, I think that it's all coming to an end and I think that's an interesting nuance on their relationship. We were talking a second ago about hyper progressive moves being considered by some close to the center I'm told that that fight, fight, fight mentality is being put down to a familiar name. Yes, it appears Morgan McSweeneie is back on the scene. I mean he never really went away outside government as somebody who would phone and write to the Prime mininister I was told by a Starmer allally last week that actually McSwweeney wrote a memo to Kir Starmer in the last few days. And then lo and behold, in the Friday column by Patrick MagGuire in the Times, he quoted an unnamed close ally as writing a memo which said that on the early hours of Friday morning Starmer should stand up and tell Andy Burnham that it's not in the interest of the country or the party or Andy Burnham himself. to launch a leadership contest. and think I think we can read across that that is the McSweeney memo that I heard about. Another thing I'm told that was Eden that memo would want to cheer the Prime Minister up is an assumption that much of the government payroll So in other words, serving ministers would remain loyal and locked in in the event of a challenge. But I have to say, That remains questionable given you there are even people in the cabinet that don't fall into that category. But I think opponents of Kir Stahmer would say that even the mere return of Morgan McSweeney to the background of this contest advising Kir Stahmer with a particular type of politics and the political approach that he brings might be enough to nudge some labour MPs fther away from the PM. Our listeners might remember I bumped into Morgan because you know my travels talking at a security conference recently. And from that and Sam, what you heard and Patrick was also reflecting, I would certainly glean that he does consider it a major mistake of for labor to get rid of Stara. naturally enough, he worked so closely to craft the Kia preremiership But in the bigger context of world affairs right now, I think his view of Morgan McSweeney probably telling the Prime Minister you can make the argument that this is not in the national interest. I notice it's a line keep hearing a lot and getting closer and closer to conflting that with the continuation Starmer, I think that's a lot harder after the John Heeeley resignation on the terms we discussed just a moment ago this all happens very quickly. we get the by election result currently expected between one and two AM on Friday morning, nice long night for us all there events are going to move very fast. So if you're advising the Prime Minister, and McSweeney has done this again and again and I'm sure would have thoughts about how it should roll from then onwards Things are going to have to move fast on both sides and the momentum also can't only be with Andy Burnham. Do you think I'm on the right lines? Yeah, no, absolutely. Look, I don't think there's going to be a huge vacuum after one or twoM on Friday morning. I think Andy Berham will in all likelihood repeat what he said during the campaign and say that he is interested in number ten, but his remarks will concentrate if he wins on the fact that he can defeat reform, but we'll know the direction of travel pretty much. straight on. That's not the same. as launching a contest immediately And the reason that nobody could say whether or not that'll happen Because nobody knows exactly as you say of what Kir Starmer will do and just how big his fight back will be and how long it lasts because it could be that Kir Stahmer pushes back across the weekend, but folds you know at the beginning of next week. The bottom line is, we don't know whether there's going to be a contest because we don't know what Kir Starm' is going to do and we don't know if Wes has the numbers, his team say they are sort of skeptism about that. One blow for the Prime Minister today, even the Institute for Government, normally a bastion of dependability for the state has called on Kistdan to think about setting up a timeline for his departure if he concludes the game is probably up. The more stubborn he is is their argument that the less opportunity for sort of transition talks that Eddie successor will get. That's what Hannah White and Alex Thomas have have written So I think you there is a constitutional propriety point about the obligations on the PM that they have reminded us on. and also just remind you that there'll be a special debef edition of this podcast at E Record Time on Friday morning. It goes without saying that we don't actually know the result of a Mfield by election, Andy Bernam might win But he might not. It could be one of those figures who is named in the show notes. They're all the candidates listed if you follow the link Right, enough on that we go to the G seven where you're quite close to the clashes I read so stay safe. and we've got this massive announcement overnight between the US and Iran Concrete details are slightly scanned. What do we know and what's its significance? Yes, Playbook pulling together these threreats handily for me. The US and Iran announcing a peace deal that would end nearly four months of hostilities in the Gulf and unblock those vital supply lines for the global energy market and everything that is downstream from that. Let the oil flow that was Donald in Donald Trump' style announcing an end to the blockade of the Strait of Horm Nooz as he celebrated his eightieth with a UFC cage fight on the White House lawn as You do Switzerland, as you say, S the eye of the storm at the moment, which is always very disconcerting here to the population and the authorities. So the streets are absolutely full of police and military. It looks a bit more like a conflict zone than a conference But that's also because that road between Evianne France and Geneva is going to be this prime diplomatic territory in the next days and when Donald turns up to make that big announcement. I gather that's happening in the Swiss side. You know, there's going to be an entire world coming to town feeling here. Trump's trruth Social post is talking about toll free reopening of the strait. and it's interesting that both Stahmer and Eertkeper the Foreign Secretary are stressing the need for those to be the terms. I guess sense a little bit of nervousness about that in the fine detail, because why are the allies, including other countries France and Germany, Italy also giving a joint statement saying that there must be clear and verifiable steps to limit the nuclear program. So everyone at the last minute is just trying to get the fine print to say something that means that whatever the terms are the end of this conflict that they are inked, they are ar And they can end up being reliable, whoever is in number ten to get, I suppose, what the global energy markets are going to be something of a guardian angel to a new prime Minister or the continuation of the old one. That's what's going on internationally. Let's just do ninety seconds each on the two big domestic stories today. And do you want to just take us through a bit of the detail around the social media ban, which is a huge piece of domestic policy? And is these tougher than they were considering just a week or two ago? Yes, it is. and actually it surprised me the extent to which the Prime Minister Maybe there's a part of him which is in legacy mode, although he is so lohe to admit it, but a gather also very personally exercised by us he's got more into the detail. I was told by someone close to him on this topic that he now does know the detail inside out and he has strengthened his position b So that's why he's talking about an Australia plus version of limiting children and young people's access to addictive social media platforms. Whiteall officials telling my polito colleague who's gone into this in more detail on the text side that lessons have been learned from D under about workarounds young people being pretty good at working around most things, but there will be plans to deal with that that go beyond what the Australian example has delivered. So that is definitely worth taking a look at that Secretary Liz Kendall, again, following that line, enforcement is going to be tougher here in Britain. She will be among MPs talking about that today, expected to give a statement in the comments sometime this afternoon. One official telling Playbook that a fresh bill, however, is likely to be required to implement some of this because it does go so far that you couldn't just Bolt it on to existing plots and plans. I spell a little bit of ID cards around this, compulsory ID cards because quite how this happens in practice is far harder than the announcement might suggest, for instance, How do social media companies know who is under sixteen and who isn't? What data do they end up having to collect on individuals and all of that kind of stuff there are worries around that. Let's just very quickly pivot to the other big domestic thing today. and this will ruffle figures and feathers in Parliament. It emerged overnight that assisted dying is back. The Labour MP from Rochester and Stroud, Luren Edwards, who came seconded the ballot for the private members Bill, decided to use her slot to bring back the legislation So she will publish the bill as it was amended in the comments on Wednesday and there'll be a debate on it in September. my goodness you know, that not only looks quite highwire, but people don't look terribly happy at that. Not just opponents like Andy Antonia Bance who wrote that she got her head in her hands. But there is a question of prioritization given everything else that's going on Interestingly, people who want to know A Andy Bernam think, well, we don't have a clear ster there, but his campaign chief Louise Hig U Now she voted for resisted dying Gardian article which opponents have resisted Dying are pointing me to, which points out that she's written to a voter in Sheffield in her constituenies saying that really that they shouldn't try and use the Parliament Act to circumvent the laws if there's if it gets stuck in the lawords again and she said that she believed it was extremely unlikely that the Parliament Act will be invoked to carry over the bill and can confirm I would not attempt support attempts to do so. It's just a straw in the wind, but it does point to how complicated this is. Obviously supporters of assisted dying outraged that the Lords blocked it They would say for legitimate reasons, supporters of assisted Dying would say, they were filibustering It's a tricky one, isn't it? It's also a reminder that Andy Burnham has been off the national stage for long enough and focused on what he's been doing there in Manchester as mayor, Greater Manchester, these are issues you don't really have to make a big statement about get smoked out on in the way that you do if you are at Westminster,s There's quite a lot and the fine grain detail that we don't know. about what Andy Berham now thinks in some ways he says he's changed his mind since he was last around in ministerial position. So yeah Pig a poke that one? As will we be pigs in pokes, that is, if we go on for very much longer. Thank you very much indeed for joining us from Geneva this morning and we will see you tomorrow. See you tomorrow, sir