Future of the Labour leadership transition

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Hello, good morning and welcome. It's Monday june the eighth, ten days until the Makerfield by election. Kia Stahmer wants the limelight back again. He's been meeting world leaders last night in Downing Street, making an eye catching announcement on social media curbs for children today But the attention remains firmly directed at Greater Manchester That's where Sam Coat is this morning. I'm Anne Mclvoy from Pillar Coat. That's right, I'm Sam Coot Skideews. Welcome to the twenty second floor of a hotel in Manchester City Center amongst. And it really does feel like this behind me with a huge vista among the skyscrapers that have appeared in the last few years in central Manchester as well as amongst the relentless Manchester rain that Andy Burnham in all these years as mayor doesn't seem to have been able to do anything about at all About twenty miles to my left through the Bluey Fog is Makerfield, the constituency where Labour MP's has been flooding this weekend O want to campaign for and want to be seen campaigning for Andy Burnham. MPs and activists of all levels of seniority right up to the deputy Prime Minister have been up even told Anne that one labor activist was so eager campaign in person that they cycled all the way from Hackney in my brief period in Makerfield isn't exactly the vibe around here, but God loves a tryer. Yeah, but do they go running as often as Andy Burnham? That's the question And that reminds me also of what I heard from the staff of a cabinet member's team. who told me that on this occasion, they were so determined to have no ambiguity at all about the data in Makerfield, Sam remembering the Gorton and dent and trauma there for labor that they'd knocked on every door twice over the campaign, which probably makes Makeerfield the most surveyed place on the planet But you've had your shoe leather on the ground there briefly, and to use a word that you hate, what's the vibe? Well, the vibe is that people at Makerfield are actually starting to get quite fed up with the campaign because there's so much activity Yeah it went' surprise you to know on the basis of a ple of hours, I'm not going to sort of call it outright, but I can give you a few strawlls in the wind Um You got to remember, right? It's greater Manchester, but it's also in a funny way, Greater Wigan, this seat with its own culture. U And what I thought yesterday in my couple of hours there Well, first of all is that you don't have to go very you know close to the campaign before they start telling you things like they knocked on half the doors of the constituency on Saturday, sort of by early afternoon And when you're proactively being briefed that, I did actually think that suggests a bit of confidence by the campaign They are trying to walk this tightrope between messaging for constituents, messaging for party ahead of a leadership contest and messaging for the country ahead of potentially Andy Berher making a bid for numberum ten and being Prime Minister. And I think even they would say they've done it with sort of varying success over the last few days actually on the labour side at the moment seems to radiate some confidence is sort of the ground game and just how it's going there. That was something I was talking to a couple of people about from senior teams who've headed north to campaign. And one of the things I was quite curious about, Sam, is whether Maker Field man and woman minds having local issues blended with a national race flyb by campaigners I was hearing and getting an ear full a lot on very detailed things like controversial warehouse development, what's affecting the green belt push for more housing and industrial development that some people don't like because of its local impacts. But essentially that's labor, build, baby, build policy so how do you cross that bridge? And I was told they were given quite detailed briefings on how to handle that And then you have the oddest wrinkle in this campaign, which is that the labor message is essentially von't labor to get the labour leader out. So the take that I was getting on that was that actually Makerfield didn't awfully mind being in the eye of the storm. It brings national attention to a place that hasn't had a lot of it in recent years. It doesn't get the reflected glory of Manchester where you're sitting, the skyscrapers, the development, the relative boom of the economy. But as someone said who campaigned a lot around Greater Manchester, it's not one of those constituencies and they cited Peterburorough, which was a big B big fight for Jeremy Corbyn against what was then the Brexit partarty, whether were local, but there were also national issues at play. He said, Well, well, we're not used to that here. And actually people didn't mind it and they thought that it might in the end bring them some benefit and that Labour definitely trying to use that as a vote Burnham, he will never be able to forget Makerfield would be the message Yeah, and some of the interviews that Andy Benham did last week ton of rejected that, but some of them didn't. there was a bit of a mix in how he it did It sort of raised the question of message discipline by him, I thought in quite an interesting way last week because there was a range of approaches that he adopted I'm There are just a lot of bigig wigs coming up here. as I mentioned, David Lammy turned up just got stuck in I am told, Anne that one prominent labour figure and the hunt is on for the name turned up at the Labour campaign offffice and immediately demanded to know who is in charge We know who's in charge. it's Louise Haig and Anlise Midgeley and was given their names. I mean, arguably should have already known. And then when he was told the names, he was like Well I want to speak to them now and was probably told that wasn't possible and just get out on the doorstep And what's interesting is I'm in this parade of figures coming up. on the West Coast mainline, Not all of them are doing themselves incredible favors in the manner and the way in which they are approaching this campaign and anybody for whom they give off a vibe, that they're doing Andy Burnham's campaign a favour by turning up. I'm not sure that is going to be remembered that fondly Um, but The fact that there are people on the train on a daily basis, more Labour MPs coming up here today, I know that shows you where the power lies, An and I hate to say it But it's not in London. I'm from the North, so I'm delighted that you said it. I think that might be predictive of some potential turf wars and power play that you, if it does turn into a Burnham administration and exactly that feeling that things will have to be different and there will be different people on the pitch. That sounds to me like that might be something we might be following up what you were hearing there in the national picture politics downown here, so to speak, Westminster is trying to pretend its business as usual. Kia Stmer will use an event at London Tech Week to give a speech on how AI will work for the British public and to assuage some fears about that and also to announce the launch of some online tools built by the Department for Work and Pensions to help people find potential jobs and get into work once they've found them and to target their efforts better. and it's described as a job centre in your pocket. But really the heart of it is the sources say they also expect the PM to announce that he wants new controls on social media companies to stop. anyone under the age of eighteen from able to take naked images of themselves and the PM also giving tech companies a deadline, quite a short one of up to six months, but not longer to implement. or threaten legislation. So that will be interesting because that sounds like a Bet a late. I don't to say last stand, but it's kind of an interesting thing to try to throw into the mix at this point in the preremiership. and that there will be a consultation on broader proposals so the tech wars begineth. I mean, if we're being honest, An, the tech wars have been going on for Link in ages I mean couple of things on what's coming today It still sounds like Prime Mister is going to stop short of a blanket ban on social media for the under six s. That's what his MPs want. That's what the Tories are pushing for. That's what the House of Laord has been pushing for. but the answer still seems to the sort of blanket ban. to be at no And u More raiser and Another consultation. And this one's kind of got a three, four week lifespan, probably a a little bit like Kstama. But I'm struck by the fact that even now he hasn't quite been able pull the levers of government to get change and announce it in a clean way and we're doing it in this peace meal manner. We'll talk about the defeense invvestment planl in a second. But again, levers pulled levers not causing change. And I just think Here we are in a potentially mission critical period for Kistarma. And he's unable to do clean policy despite having all the tools at his disposal And, you know So it seems like all of this will stop short I was told that Kistara doesn't want a blanket ban. in part. apparently he said this to Cabinet because his children are against it And I see this morning that the Times is reporting it end up being a much more granular package So there'll be restrictions on limiting certain features and sites to different age groups U so kind of departing from the Australia model W with all of this sort of set out late July and over the summer. I mean it just ends up being very, very kerced starory in a way that that adjective isn't always positive. It has a split the difference feeling about it, doesn't it? and not only on that issue, Playbook is reporting this morning, the Defence invvestment plan was supposed to come this Thursday, so often promised and so not yet delivered. But even that might be slipping. Now someone familiar with the discussions is telling my polito colleagues late last night, there was still no clarity on when the plan would finally arrive and that there are tense conversations continuing over the sums involved. Now to put it from Kir Starmer's perspective, he doesn't want anything. You've seen Heterlnyia Zelensky, other European leaders, Fidich Merz and Emmanu Macron in Downing Street talking about next steps on supporting Ukraine and probably the Gulf crisis as well. what he doesn't want is an investment plan out there which then turns out not to be deliverable or where details are not tied down. and that's number ten's frustration, I think, with the MOD has been along those lines. know just to put an in fairness point for for Kist Stammer about why these things don't end up being delivered as cleanly as people would like. But remember, we have the NATO summit and it's an absolutely crucial summit for NATO in Ankaror next month and he will definitely not want. that's not to coin the old phrase, It's not a chamber you want to go into naked, particularly when you have the threats in the world. And a lot's at stake in terms of what is Kist Amer's legacy on international affairs and defense. So I think that also explains why he would rather wait and have something big to announce. The problem is that the world keeps turning while everyone's waiting for the defense investment plan. But we seem to be in a world where to make this uplift in defense spending happen We're having to have a raid of other government departments You know stick projects to fund defence. I mean, This is incredible. We've been doing this defense plan for months, you know, and they're coming for growross projects, Gross projects in places like the Department of Transport in order to rattle the tin to find some cash for it, you know When I heard that I actually thought, Is Kir Starmer doing scorched Eth for his successor? I mean, just making life more difficult? Probably Andy Burner I'm All of which takes us to the sort of biggest question in British politics, which is what happens after june eighteenth. There's been quite a lot since we last talked on all of that provroviding that Andy Burnham wins the makeakefield by election. let's take that as a given. There was a story by Kitty Donaldson in the I newspaper that Kiss Ar will stand and fight any challenge, right? And you've been talking to people around K. What do you make of it all? Just quickly on your first point because you just reminded me of this apparently in cabinet when this was discussed last week and where the money was going to come from for the defefence Investment planlan.. The feeling was that Kir Stahmer's mood, looking around the table was as someone who'd been in the room put it later pass the hat round. you know, let's see what we can come up with. And I think as you say that, that rather unsettled. of ministers who didn't fancy having to scrape even more out of their budgets. So let's see where that lands and who has been asked to make an involuntary credible decion But yeah, the bigger picture for stummer, It seems to me are that there are two pictures here. The one which was briefed out a bit over the weekend to various newspapersays here we will stand and fight notwithstanding Burnham wins and wins confidently that yet one last stand and that he's not going to back off having that option. Well, that seems incredibly messy, doesn't it? to have the Prime Minister fighting a figure who would have a by election win behind him and Andy Bernam's team, I think thinking, well, they will have momentum at that point. they'll have some dynamism. How's that going to really look for Kia Starmer? But Starmer doesn't want to take that off the table. Remember that his way of hanging on so far has been the kind of bureaucratic control. I don't just mean that negatively. he just feels like in a way standing just not accepting challenge has actually ensred that he's still in place. So could he continue with that? Or is there a more realistic option here what you think about this samwich is you know, we keep saying legacy period. final phase, etcera Is this really about Starmer finding a negotiating position forZivi Berham in which he gets to set a timetable for departure more on his terms and that he's then able to attend some of these big international convocations that he's not rushed out of the door. That seems to be more of the psychological truth of this But the starmer way of going about it It is never to acknowledge that he might have to go. And that I told was also very firmly the mood in the last cabinet meetings. He just does not approach the subject A all. Yeah, it's fascinating. I hear the readouts of people at number ten saying he is absolutely determined to hang on I've been trying to gain this question as well, but every which way I do it, I come back to your sort of latter conclusion that in the end He won't fight for that Long might do initially a little bit let's just go through a few reasons why I think that's just in plain sight, right Once he makes you to Westminster, I just don't think Andy Burnham can hang around for many weeks and months he'll want to get on with a change in number ten, he's clearly signaled he wants to force. You can't have this summer of stasis with the old cabinet and neglected briefs kind of still there I'm So You know, where Streets he might say he's got the numbers now, but in the frenzy post by election, I'm not sure that those people don't come a huge pressure to withdraw and back Andy Berner it looks like the winner So it all comes down to does Kir Starmer fight or does you know, does he put a fight for more than a handful of days? Right? Look at the facts. He's got more than one hundred MPs on the record calling for him to go doesn't have a permanent chief of staff. He doesn't have a permanent director of communications And if he does fight and this is a new point that I haven't heard made elsewhere. If he decides, having seen a challenge, having heard of a challenge, having fate having been told of the challenge from Andy Burnham Not only do the Poles say he'd go And he'd lose thirty seven to fifty nine percent twenty two point gap But here's one more thing point at which the contest begins between Starmer and Berer You know Hey members of his cabinet would resign automatically You know, the Lisa Andandys, the Ed Miller Bands, maybe even the Shabana Mahoods would quit to back Andy Burnham, I think, because they quite clearly side with him in any challenge and whilst everybody's been very polite to try and ensure that K Starma gets a sort of kind exit as far as possible it is to be a kind exit from this from this situation. at that point, people who actually back Andy Burnne will sniff that he's going to be the winners who want to be on the right side of the history just go. So does Keith Stalmer really have the gumption, the firepower, the fight, the enthusiasm to fight a leadership contest where he's defending his position beginning on day one with a cabinet reshuffle, doomed to almost certain failure and by going out in this way really ruining his legacy with the wider labour family who do not want you know the kind of blood and gore that that rot would cause. There is one option which someone put to me who's been historically very close to Starmer and knows how he approaches things, which says that you will tend to absolutely not acknowledge that there is this big problem at the moment, but he's perfectly aware of it, but that at the same time, he will find his moment to have detailed talks with Andy Berham. and that might be the way that you could through this so they didn't end up as you put it with an unkind exit or turn around your analysis into it being that kind of unkind exit where the cabinet forall like dominoos and so we know this isn't going to continue and we have to also prepare for our own futures. So there what this friend of Sam has called a back pocket argument, namely that he could make the case, Sam that what is good for Andy Burnham is not the Russian push analysis of just get Andy in their triumphant arrival in Down street, everything's changed. brring on the Manchesterism. because everyone knows that the details of that are not very well worked out in terms of how to apply it to a really difficult national picture and there are worries about the readiness of the Burnham team to take over and the big questions is, what he do about his Chancellor, etc. So you could say if you were king this K Stama gradual disappearance like the Cheshire Cat in Alice that you need some form of transition that doesn't feel like it is a joolt to the system. and therefore Kir Stama has some cards left to play. There was one Ie over the Prime Minister telling Claybook it would be both in Burnham and Stahmer's interests. for the King of the North to hold fire. when he gets back to Westminster saying I don't get the sense that Andy is ready yet adding that Starmer and Burnham would need to have a conversation at some stage. That's Andrew McDonald's playbook this morning. And that actually just by coincident bears out exactly what I had been hearing from this person who describes their job as cheering up. K Star if that is possible, but therefore that this idea of the managed transition is creeping onto the table. I think we can call it now. There'll be talks between Andy Bernam and KS Starmer in the days after the Makeerfield by election. and That'll determine how it's done, but Oderly just looks so much more likely than disorderly and a contest right now