National Primary Results and Trump

This is the Guardian In one of America's bluest states, it's a Republican who's making headlines People are very confused that this British politician is at the top of the polls. Elsewhere, established Democrats performed well And one of Trump's personal choices failed to make the cut, which is quite stunning because Trump has been on a winning streak. So what lessons have been learned from California and beyond? California is where the tech industry is based for the tech industry. Some of this is existential. I'm Jonathan Friedand, columnist at the Guardian, and this is Politics Weekly America I'm delighted to say I'm joined this week by Sam Levin, who is a senior reporter for Guardian US, usually based in Los Angeles, he's currently in London for a few weeks And Sam, big results that were watched closely. they're not all in as you and I speak. We're talking about the races in California. huge state. it can take days even weeks for the results to come in. but I know normally you're there rather than here. haveave these been an exciting set of contests to watch? As a reporter, they've definitely been exciting to watch. I think for residents of California and Los Angeles There was a feeling that it was kind of pressing and people feeling a bit apathetic, especially among Democrats know California usually produces these big political stars and heavyweights who become major national figures And this year, you know, when I talk to friends, they're like, who's running again? People just don't know. And there wasn't a clear frontrner in the governor's race for a long time. And so there's just a feeling of apathy and a little bit of depression around the election in California. Yeah. And you mentioned Los Angeles, there's a mayor's race. there will onto that, but just to dive into this Governor's race. I want you to explainain the rather unusual rules there in California the so called jungle primary. because what people know about California is it is solid blue. It's normally a reliably deemocratic state. There hasn't been a Republican elected there I think really for a couple of decades since Arnold Schwarzenegger became the governor famously there. but it is solid blue, solidly Democrat. and yet this year it got a little more complicated Yeah, the jungle primary system is strange even to voters in California and they've come to really learn a lot about it this year. But essentially there's the top two candidates who move forward in the race. And so it's nonpartisan in that way. And so whoever gets the most votes is going to advance to the next round. And so you had this really bizarre situation where two Republicans in the race and a lot of Democrats splitting up the vote. And so for a long time, you had polling showing the Republicans were actually at the highest of the polls, which was causing significant alarm among the blue residents of the state and the Democratic Party in the state. And there was a real fear that the top two candidates to advance were going to both be Republicans, which could mean California would have a Republican Governor. That turned out not to be the case, but it's a strange system. Yeah, because under these wirky rules the top two regardless of the party go ahead into a runoff in November and as you said, it could have been Two Republicans. A lot of interest, particularly here in the UK, about one of those two Republicans Now, as we speak, I think it's less than sixty percent of the vote that's been counted But he is at the moment at the top of the poll. Now that doesn't mean he's going to win. It doesn't mean he's governor of California, but in his very split vote, he at least is top of the poll now which suggests he will go forward into the primary. And I'm talking about Steve Hilton Now he's known to Brits because he was an advisor to a British Prime Minister, David Cameron and he is himself brit and yet he suddenly pops up not as a backrom adviser But as somebody who is a candidate and right now you have to say top of the poll, for Governor of California. So tell us about Steve Hilton and what kind of campaign he's had. So Steve Hilton is British, as you say, and he is a former Fox newews host, a conservative And it's been interesting being here in London for a few weeks because I amm seeing that people here are as baffled about his rise in California as they are where I am in Los Angeles. I think in LA, people are just very confused that this British politician is at the top of the polls And obviously being here, I've learned that He's, you, considered a bit of a Zany person and, you know, has everyone talks about him walking around in his socks. And so that's something I keep hearing from people around the guardian's office And he's come forward in California by presenting himself as the person who is going to finally tackle Democrats. Democrats, as you said, have controlled the state for a very long time. There hasn't been a Democrat elected to statewide office since twenty eleven. And so he's saying all the problems you see here in California are the result of Democrats being in charge and I'm going to change that system. so that's obviously resonated with some voters. and the fact is he was endorsed by Donald Trump and that really helped him surge over the other Republican in the race. And yet that may be the factor that really puts him behind when it goes to the general election in November, so long as he's opposing a Democrat, you would think as a Trump endorsed Republican. in California, that will be a big I mentioned he' had a couple of missteps in the campaign, but there was obviously the novelty value of being this Brit. In fact, so famous in British politics, he inspired a character in the thick of it political satire. There's a character thereough who comes up with ever more sort of wacky kind of slightly hippy schemes because Steve Hilton was known for proposing blue sky ideas including in onease actually getting behind cloud busting technology because it would cheer Brits up if there were sunnier skies. So he's a figure who's inspired creations from fiction, but he has not had a wholly smooth campaign. In fact, it's actually got a bit kind of thick of it during this campaign. Just tell us about some of these missteps. The misstep that caused a lot of laughter in California was him going to this taco restaurant and basically saying, here I am with a street taco. and he was holding up this taco that was extremely not a street taco. And this was at Del Taco, which is a big chain, right? And you associate street tacos with street vendors who are very popular in Los Angeles and throughout California. And so that was just a moment caused a lot of laughter and a lot of, oh man, look at this this guy from, you know, the UK. He doesn't know what he's talking about. But he's he's has these very energetic, you know, campaign events where for Republicans in the state, there, you know, are people who really resonate with what he's saying and really just want change and are really angry and frustrated with the state of government in California Yeah, and we should say that what he's been doing in between being a political advisor to David Cameron here in London And in the UK is he reinvented himself as a Fox TV host in the US. and you know we know that Trump, that's the talent pool he draws from. Steve Hilden hass been part of that. He's had a know well regarded show there, I think on Fox or well regarded by the MAGa rights, certainly. So his opponent come November, We obviously don't know that for certain right Because these votes are still coming in, it takes a long time, millions, I think vote still uncounted. But just tell us who the front runner on the Democrat side is and whether you think if he does emerge as the challenger against Steve Hilton, if that's how it plays out how you rate his chances The front runner is JXavier Bisera. He served in the Biden administration, Health and Human Services And he's the former atttorney General of California, which is often a stepping stone to becoming governor in the state And he's really presented himself as this kind of moderate guy who's going to hold steady and be a good good sort of presence in the state. He's he's the son of immigrants and so he has that sort of family story. but he's not someone who would consider himself very charismatic. He's not someone who a ton of name recognition People in the state are like, who is that again? He's not someone who is really considered a major leader in the party at a national level, but he surged to the top of the polls sort of very suddenly and to some, it seemed a bit random. There was just, you know, weeks ago where he was seen as at the bottom of the polls and people were calling for him to drop out And he benefited from a scandal where Eric Swalwell, Congress member, had a horrific sexual misconduct scandal that caused him to drop out. And Bisera was really the beneficiary of that And so it seems likely this is a very democratic state if Bisera is the nominee who goes forward against Steve Hilton, that he would prevail against the Republican Yeah, I suppose the wild card is just politics is unpredictable. And if you have somebody as the steady hand candidate, the sort of continuity status quo candidate in Bisera and then you have the insurgent offering to change everything in the form of Steve Hilton. Well, politics can be unpredictable. but as you say, it's a reliably democratic state. You would have thought the very fact Steve Hilton backed by Donald Trump would mean that race goes to Bisera and the Democrat. Nevertheless, Bisera himself has a challenger on his side. As we've been stressing, the votes are not all in, so we don't know for certain if he's fended off this challenge. And that is from the billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer you know, he's on the results that currently in, he's around the twenty percent mark a lot of m he spent a huge fortune of his own money, but there was a lot of money that went in against him. Just explain why sort of established Democrats, others were worried by this character, Tom Styart. It's a very interesting situation. Tom Steyer is a hedge funds, billionaire who has really staked a position in the race as the most progressive And so you have this strange situation where Tom Styer, a billionaire, is the one who the leftist and progressive groups are supporting. The Democratic Socialists of America endorsed Tom Steyer a bit begrudgingly because he is a billionaire, but said he is the candidate who is the most progressive and making the most progressive promises. And so he has actually supported a proposed tax on billionaires in the state, which is a one time five percent tax on all billionaires living in the states, something like two hundred fifty billionaires meant to raise money for healthcare and education. And he's been a vocal proponent of that. and his message in the race is I am a class traader. And so people in his class took that seriously and were really against him because he is seen as progressive leader in the race. Yeah. and this is att tackax of course, he himself would have to pay were it to come to that. But is that this a reason why a whole lot of tech money, tech bros lined up in a major way spending in this race? Yeah, a lot of tech money flowed to a candidate we have not discussed yet, named Matt Mayhan, and he is the mayor of San Jose, not someone well known outside of San Jose, but he's the chosen candidate class he's in Silicon Valley And he got all this financial support from tech executives and from tech companies. And the idea was all this money that flowed to him was something like fifty million, mostly from tech was going to help just build his name recognition. People didn't really know who he was And that just seemed to not pan out as of this moment we're talking. He's in sixth place, very few percent. And so that was an extraordinary loss for the tech money. And and Tom Syer, as we see, is not advancing, you know, as far either, but It's still early to call it. Yeah. And our colleague Daric wrote a very strong piece about all this and we'll link to that in the show notes about how Silicon Valley was spending a lot of money. I'm interested they, you know, obviously they backed you know a long shot, but what was their motive? Why did they find this race so important California is where the tech industry is based and For the tech industry, some of this is existential. In terms of regulations for AI, Tom Steyer, the most progressive candidate in the race, was proposing the strictest regulations on AI and actual sort of tax, and that's something that could have a huge impact And so these companies think that it's worth spending this amount of money and obviously these tech executives because They don't want their industry to be regulated in a way that's going to hurt their profits. And so they've poured a lot of money into races as Dara reported. And it's interesting because they've poured a lot of money into local races. So it's not just the governor's race, but they've been looking for candidates, you know up and down the state and really supporting different people. You know, they got involved in the state insurance commissioner race, which is not something that the average voter will know much about, but that's something they've been involved in as well. And so they've invested record numbers of funds to have people who support them in office. I mean we know their play for governor didnt their chosen candidate in fact conceded throw in the towel pretty early on, but you know, in those smaller races have they had better luck there in terms of getting their anointed ones in? They have. it seems most of the candidates that these suuper packs have supported our moving forward to November, we'll obviously see how that plays out in November in the general election, but they're going to be spending a lot of money and already are to fight this billionaiire's tax because that's something that they are very, very opposed to for prettyty obvious reasons. Yes very obvious reasons. So you mentioned those more local races. The biggest of those is to be mayor of Los Angeles. There is an incumbent there, Karen Bass Democrat. She is, I think pretty clearly going to make it into the November runoff, as it were in the final ballot. She But she did, it seems, get less than fifty percent of the vote, which is not great for an incumbent Democrat in a city like Los Angeles There had been speculation she was going to face her main challenge from a Democrat from the progressive wing of the party in a way enter stage right from nowhere, a Republican, posing as something of a superhero in a viral ad. Just tell us about who that is and what his chances are That is Spencer Pratt, who is most known in the States for being a reality TV villain from the show The Hills, show that I will admit, I have never watched, but he certainly is known for being on TV And his main campaign story is that his house burned down in the devastating Palisades fires that happened at the beginning of twenty twenty five And he really became kind of the most vocal opponent of how the city handled those fires. There was obviously a lot of anger about the handling of the fires directed right at Karen Bass. And so he really became a champion for people who were upset about that And he has a sort of Trumpian style to him saying wild things being sort of out there on social media. AI has made its way into some of his videos. He's done campaign videos where he's standing outside Karen Bass's house saying she lives in this nice house. Look at the homeless people that, you live in the city. You know, he's promised to get much tougher on homeless people, prettytty sort of standard, more conservative politics. He was formerly registter as a Republican now says he's an independent. The LA Mayor's race is nonpartisan, but he is seen as the Republican in the race and he is doing quite well campaigning on change. It's worth saying that Nitia Ramman, who's the progressive challenger to Karen Bass does still have a chance at this moment. She is in third place, but the way that votes work, mail and ballots come in later and those tend to skew Democrat. And so we've seen her rise a bit in the polls and that could still be a chance for her. So she definitely is not conceded Yeah, and my superhero referenceces to one of these AI generated ads in which He poses as a kind of Batman style figure interrupting this sort of anon regime style party attended by incumbent California Governor Geavvin Newson, Mayor Carambass And they're sort of laughing while everyone below on the streets is suffering from crime and the presence of homelessness and so on and he comes in as this sort of crime busting Superhero, very, very TV, very AI And I've had a few people say to me, pay attention to this her. This is the future of American political campaign, you willll see that for the midterms. But after this we'll be looking at some of the other Fascinating primary contests in the rest of the country nter. I'm back with Sam, Levin. Sam. our attention so far has been on California, on LA There were elections across the country and other places, primary contests. we should stress, just deciding who are the candidates in November. I think it's fair to say Donald Trump will be, you know, perhaps pleased of that his choice in California, Steve Hilton did quite well But he will be less pleased with the results out of Ie Yes, and Iowa his chosen candidate did not win, which is quite stunning because Trump has been on a winning streak. Every candidate that he's supported since March and endorsed has succeeded until now Republicans who've been standing up to Trump have been losing. We've seen that in Kentucky, Louisiana, Texas, Indiana. And so to have his candidate lose in Iowa is quite a stunning defeat to him Although it's worth noting that he endorsed that candidate, I think a week before the election, it was pretty last minute and so it just did not seem to have the intended effect it usually does. Yeah, that's Randy Finstra there in the race to be goovernor Iowa. I mean, Democrats looking at the Senate map have been talking about I will more and more as being one to watch Partly because a lot of farmers, they're hit badly by Donald Trump's tariffs I mean, this result will look like another tea leaf pointing at trouble for Trump. and for Republicans in that state, or would that be overreading it I think that is correct. And I think you see that Democrats are hopeful about Iowa in a way they haven't been in a while. There is some hope that they could actually win the governor's race. That remains to be seen and that would be considered a long shot. that hasn't happened in a long time. But I think they are looking at that state as hopeful. and I think broadly recognizing that there's a lot of anger and disapproval of Trump in places where he previously had support over the economy and people really struggling and suffering. And so Democrats are hoping that they can leverage that to really perform very well in the midterms And what about elsewhere? The Democrats did do well. You know a lot of establishment backed candidates, in other words, no people who weren't challenging. party leadership seem to have come through their various primary contests. I mean, there's been a lot of attention on the state of Maine where Graham Platner very much out of the mold of a usual Democratic candidate. He did well, but elsewhere it does seem as if mainstream as it were or regular Democrats are flourishing or have come through It's very hard to know what's going on with the Democratic Party right now, isn't it? Because you do have these sort of battles that are going on in places like Maine and then elsewhere, someone like Bassera, even in California, pretty much a sort of party man. Well how do you read what's happening on the democratic side of politics right now as we do run up into those November elections does feel a bit like an identity crisis inside the party. I think California is an interesting window into that in some ways because it's been a very bizarre race, but at the end of the day, you have this is a likely establishment Democrat moving forward. and the mayor who's a former congressperson in LA moving forward. And so I think there is a question about what is the party offering that's different? and are they going to inspire voters to come forward? I think people really want to see folks who are more than just anti Trump, right, who are not just we oppose these policies, but is there a forward vision And, you know, someone like Zoran Mamani in New York is someone who's really inspired a ton of ch and inspired a ton of Democrats to feel really energized, but you don't really see other candidates breaking through in any kind of national way like that. And I think that's something that Democrats are surely thinking deeply about as we head into the midterms and then look towards the presidential race Exactly. I mean, twenty twenty eight is not far off people's minds and You're right, there is that sort of question about which path is the path? In New Jersey and Iow where they went pretty much the sort of tried and tested establishment route. So as you say, in places like New York City and now it seems in Maine, very, very different approach Sam, as you know, we do always like to ask a what else question on the podcast, something completely different. Now we reported a couple of weeks back on the creation of in a way what critics called a slush fund, this one point eight billion dollar fund Donald Trump had created to compensate people who were, in his view, victims of the weaponization of the justice system under his predecessor Joe Biden, meaning anybody who had been on the wrong side of the law including perhaps the insurrectionists of january sixth, twenty twenty one There would be a compensation fund where they would be in effect paid in cash for whatever it was they had been either accused or convicted of it seems that that didn't last long What happened Yeah, and what also feels a bit rare, you see Trump backing off of this anti weaponization fund This came out of him complaining about his tax returns being leaked in the first administration, as you know. And It ended in a settlement which does say that he and his family are protected from future audits And that part has remained. so it's worth not forgetting that because that is quite significant. And There's not been anything like that in the past that gives him this kind of immunity This fund, they have backed off rather suddenly and doesn't always back off from these kinds of fights. Obviously a judge ruled against the fund and so that was part of it. But we have seen him back off and I think part of that likely has to do with intense Republican backlash to it. It was bipartisan backlash to this. You saw that there was a major immigration funding vote that wasn't moving forward because there were Republicans who were not happy with this And there was a poll showing that neearly half of MAGa voters werere not in favor of this fund. So it's interesting to see this kind of backlash to something that is seen as corrupt. It's worth noting that when Trump was asked about this by a reporter yesterday, his response was a bit equivocal. he was sort of saying, I have to ask the lawyers about it. You know, he didn't give a really clear answer and then went on a kind of rant about january sixth and how those people were victimized Yeah, and he does seem to fit a pattern in which Donald Trump's power is waning just a bit. There are signs of it, not getting his way in Iowa, not being able to get his way with this. slush fund for Republicans breaking way to vote against him on this war Powers actct in Iran. There does seem to be a little bit, just the first signs of what he fears greatly, which is of course being a lame duck. We're not there yet, but there are those Signs, Sam Levin. than you so much for joining me on Politics Weekly America. Thanks so much. Great to be here. Before I go, the World Cup is just around the corner and my colleagues on the Guardian' Football Weekly team are heading to America to cover the highs and lows and everything in between from the biggest World Cup to date spanning three countries multiple time zones. From the eighth of June, foootball Weekly is becoming World Cup daily for the duration of the tournament. The regular rotation of expert guests will be covering every single game in their own inimitable style. So do make sure to search for Football Weekly wherever you get your podcasts or on YouTube But for now, it's goodbye. The producers were Nada Smilianich, Maay Robson, and Danielle Stevens, the executive producer Maz Ebahj. I'm Jonathan Friedand. thanks as always for listening This is the Guardian