Future Outlook and Potential New Conflicts

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We negotiate with them and then we always have to blow them up Do you want to go blast the hell out of them? I prefer not. Donald Trump keeps changing his mind on how to deal with Iran. And if it's not a great deal when I'm making it. So are we any closer to an end to this war? I do believe that the odds of getting to some sort of a framework are around 70%. I'm Jonathan Friedland, columnist at The Guardian, and this is Politics Weekly America . And I'm delighted to be joined this week by Ali Vez, the Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group. Ali, you spoke to my colleague Rachel Line Gang on the podcast back at the start of March when the war had just broken out. A huge amount has happened since then. But the key point is that a ceasefire was eventually agreed in April. And yet the messaging since then has been very confusing. It's gone sort of back and forth of whether we're going to turn the ceasefire into an actual outright agreement or whether we're back in war mode. One minute, progress the next Trump saying he's gonna blow Iran off the face of the earth, or words to that effect. What's your account of of why there is this mixed messaging? Well the way I imagine this is that there is an angel sitting on one shoulder of President Trump and a demon sitting on another shoulder. And he's basically hearing different messages all the time from those who are telling him uh that this war has uh been uh much costlier uh and much messier uh than he expected and I think he does realize that uh the president often likes short, very decisive, very clear-cut uh military interventions. So he does realize that the continuation of this conflict, the escalation trap that he's in, uh is going to uh come to uh eclipse his presidency potentially. So he's wary of continuation of the conflict. On the other hand, he's also not getting what he wanted uh diplomatically out of this. Vietnam lasted nineteen years, uh Korea lasted eight years, uh Afghanistan lasted many years He expected the Iranians to capitulate to US terms, uh at least on a range of issues, nuclear, regional, missile. If not, at least getting zero enrichment from the Iranians. So when he ends up in a in a situation that he's all he 's getting is a framework uh agreement uh that a lot of his allies are criticizing as even worse or weaker than Obama's deal or very much similar to it. He hesitates uh to call it a win. This is why you constantly hear this mixed messaging coming out of Washington. And of course what you're saying there relates to this notion that Trump is often influenced by the last person he spoke to, whether it's that angel Really well and said an im an agreement actually been largely negotiated in his words. And then on Sunday uh Trump is not at his own son's wedding in the Bahamas because uh to do that seemed to change his plan when he said I've got Iran to deal with . What happened in this week in particular in terms of this zig and zag that he keeps doing? Well um uh one of uh the administration officials had said to the press that ninety five percent of uh the text was uh negotiated. In my experience, I've been covering this for 20 years, that five percent remaining is exactly where uh the difficulty lies. The and the devil is in the details, right? Uh there was this question of the Iranians getting a lot of what they wanted out of this framework agreement, um, which basically prioritizes the urgent over the important. The urgent being ending the war and reopening of the Strait of Hormos versus the important which is uh addressing the nuclear uh issue in a in a comprehensive way and sanctions relief also in a comprehensive way. Do you accept an agreement with Iran that just calls for further talks on the uranium or is the only option for the other I would for some of it, yeah, because it's a memorandum of understanding for speed. One of the things that will happen is the uh street will open immediately. Immediately. But it's gotta be perfect. I'm not gonna do this. I didn't do this to get a crummy agreement. But the Iranians would also benefit financially in in the initial phase of this when, they reopened the Strait of Ormose, there was also a degree of upfront sanctions relief. And that again for a president who had criticized Democrats for uh giving Iran pallets of cash is very uncomfortable uh territory. Um so again, this is why um you know the president just pushes to the brink uh and has to step back because he hears all of this criticism coming from his own Is there any evidence that the crowd in charge now is any less committed to destroying Israel? Going after us, the great Satan, purifying Islam? I think the answer is no. So we aken them further and you may get a deal later. But you're not gonna get a deal with this crowd until you hurt them more. Remember that this is an election year in the United States. We have midterm elections in November. And in a way, pressures on him are building in two different directions. His base is uh unhappy because of the high uh energy prices, but his donors are unhappy about uh the president giving money uh to the Iranian regime which has survived this war. Hence this sort of paralysis and indecision because he's being pushed and pulled in different directions and not getting the resolution he wanted. Uh and these US uh strikes that were on Sunday, uh they again overnight uh into Thursday, the administration officially saying these do not violate the ceasefire. In fact, if anything, they're actually designed to maintain the ceasefire. They're purely defensive moves. Again, trying to maintain that sort of position on the fence, I suppose. He's got, as you've said, a whole lot of people on his own side uh unhappy uh with this. There were Republicans, a wing of MAGA, they didn't war in the first Then there are others who uh as you've said, very unhappy about the idea of uh the prospect of uh cash going to Iran, the Israelis unhappy. All told them when you put it all together, I mean does Donald Trump have enough at this point, even if it's just the ninety five percent and not the five percent, to sort of declare victory and call it quits? I think he does. Uh because the key point is that Iranians would agree in the text of my understanding that there will be a period uh of a moratorium on their uh enrichment program followed by a period of restrictions, even though the timelines and the numbers would would uh would probably not be in the text and and the parties are giving themselves a renewable period of 60 days to negotiate those details after the memorandum of understanding is finalized. But the very fact that Iran would agree to suspend its enrichment is something Obama never got and Biden never got. This is just because of the facts on the ground uh that were created as a result of the twelve day war last year that Iran's nuclear program was significantly degraded and has Iran uh has not enriched a single gram of uranium uh over the past year. So the suspension of enrichment is fact on the ground. But its recognition would be something that President Trump would be able to sell as an achievement that his predecessors uh were not able to obtain. Yeah, and I suppose just if he does get restor ation of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, even though that was not a problem before this war started, he would be able to present that as a win. He is nothing if not a salesman. Uh we're gonna take a short break here . If you're watching on YouTube, we'd love to know what you think about this deal. Do tell us in the comments. But after the break, Ali and I will be asking who Trump is actually listening to when it comes to making these decisions and why Trump's demands on the Middle East are being ignored. We'll be right back . Stonehenge, an ancient mystery. How did they build it? And what was it for? More than 4,000 years of history still standing strong. You've seen the Stone Circle in pictures countless times, but being there, right by the stones in person is something else. Their size is immense. Their energy magnetic. It's an unforgettable bucket list experience. Start planning your summer trip to an English heritage Lationoc at theguardian.com forward slash a day out in history. This message was paid for by English Heritage. Did the kids get home safe? Where is the dog? With Arlo's early warning system with emergency SOS, you'll always know. Arlo's AI doesn't just detect, it recognizes your dog on the sofa, your kids coming home, unfamiliar faces, and even fire. Get real-time alerts and connect to emergency services in seconds so you can act before damage is done. Arlo . Home. Where you need us to be. Discover more at arlo.com . Support comes from WISE and their smart current account for home and abroad. Living across borders, a UK salary, USD investments, or a mortgage in France. Multiple accounts are a headache. And do you know how much a bank's inflated exchange r ate could cost you? Manage over 40 currencies with WISE and save up to 75% on international transfer fees versus other providers. And help give your everyday money a boost by investing with WISE assets. Peace more. Get Wise capital risk growth not guaranteed teas and c supply learn more at wise dot com back with Ali uh Ali uh to get this latest proposal over the line it seemed um Donald Trump asked Gulf states to sign up to his Abraham Accords um saying in effect these Gulf states owed it to the United States to do that. And we'd like to have the countries we were talking about with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and the others, we'd like to have them immediately join theed and Steve Woodkoff is working on that with Jared and some others, but would like to have them join the Abraham Accords. It'll be historic if they do. have been reacting to it? Well the Abraham Accords um uh were negotiated in twenty twenty and uh basically normalized Israel's relations with uh several Arab states uh including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, even though there was not a state of war between Israel and these countries, uh it was a milestone achievement for the Trump administration. President Trump is a transactional man. A lot of the Arab states in the region, and actually non-Arab states as well, like countries like Turkey or Pakistan, they have really urged President Trump not to go back into uh another round of hostilities with Iran, given the risks that escalation could spiral out of control, and the region has already paid a very high price for a war. President Trump is basically now asking them to do something in return if he is to uh uh comply with what they're they are urging him to do. But there's also another dimension here which, I think is is critical to understand. In the memorandum of understanding, there will be language about non-aggression between Iran and the United States that would implicitly apply to their regional allies. And And President Trump is bound to describe that the salesman that he is as a as the first step uh of Iran uh joining the Abraham Accords. And he's already started talking about it. And so this is why for him to be able to frame uh a one page agreement with Iran that doesn't really fundamentally resolve any of the problems as part of this five D chess that he's playing , which is going to make Israel much more secure and the region a safer place, is a good way of pitching uh an uncomfortable deal to his own constituency. Yeah, and you're already hearing some people saying that's a bit lipstick on a pig, really. He's trying to dress up what is not a great breakthrough as if it is something much bigger uh than it is. Um there's been reporting that Oman, one of those Gulf states, uh and Iran have been in talks to charge tolls to countries who want their ships to use the Strait of Hormuz once o once opened. We're gonna watch over it. We'll watch over it, but nobody's gonna control it. That's part of the negotiation that we have. They would like to control it. Nobody's gonna control it. It's international waters and uh Oman will behave just like everybody else who will have to blow them up. How that would play with Trump and with Trump's own critics and whether or not him making these threats saying we're gonna re go back to war, we'll blow up countries that get standard way, whether that's effective and does push the Iranians to try and forces in in the past few days during the ceasefire. I think in and of itself is a testament to the fact that the Iranians are not cowed by the threat of use of force against them. Uh because otherwise why would they do provocative things uh that would then uh result in the US taking defensive action uh and striking Iranian military assets. Clearly uh the the military threat um has uh I think lost its utility against the Iranians. Using it against US allies like a country like Oman, I I think would f just further diminish US credibility uh in the region, uh, because this is not how you treat allies. Now on the question of uh service fees and and tools uh in in in the strait this deal uh is going to have a period of thirty days for um Iran uh to remove its uh blockade of the strait and the US to remove its own naval blockade. But in that period, uh both sides are going to engage in minesweeping uh of the international water ways. So in that period, traffic, if it's if it resumes, it has to still go through Iranian territorial waters. We might have some sort of a temporary arrangement, but if this is to turn into a longer term arrangement . It definitely needs to have Oman on board. It definitely needs to have uh the uh blessing of the UN Security Council because otherwise it would be a violation of the UN convention on the law of the seas And it would have to be temporary in nature so that it doesn't set a precedent for other critical choke points in the world. Yeah, I think that's going to be the hardest thing of all for Donald Trump to spin in a way because people will say that's a setback from where we were on February the twenty seventh, that things were uh you know in a better place before. But w in terms of what's happening in Washington, there are signs that even as we as you were explaining, people on his own side are losing patience. And that is being expressed where it matters actually on Capitol Hill, where we've had not just Democrats but now some Republicans joining. Uh the Senate at the eighth attempt, we should say , voted to advance a war powers resolution, which the purpose of which is essentially to oblige Donald Trump to end the war in Iran unless he gets congressional authorisation to But what was interesting about it was four Republicans broke ranks and joined the Democrats on this. To what extent do you think that is becoming a big factor in Donald Trump's calculations, this pressure he is feeling from the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue? I don't think it really fe atures much uh in terms of his calculations because at the end of the day, uh it's true that in the Senate you might have uh better odds of passing this resolution, but uh but you need to also have the house on board with it uh and that's a much uh higher bar. And most importantly remember that uh President Trump would have to sign uh this legislation and if he doesn't, if he vetoes it , then you need a two two thirds uh majority in both houses in order to overturn uh a presidential veto. And those numbers are just simply not there. Obviously this war started without consent of Congress. It is not just violation of international law, but also of US law. It ran its course of 60 days. And if it resumes, uh the Trump administration is thinking of naming it something else so that basically the clock is reset instead of calling it Operation Epic Fury that they now say it's over, they they're planning to call it sledgehammer operation so that it starts a new clock. But this is all because at the end of the day, uh for this administration, uh legal matters are of secondary source of conc Yeah, we've absolutely come to learn that uh over the years, and also because he doesn't really fear congressional opposition, partly for the reasons you explained, which is he can always override it more or less. So tak,ing stock of all of this that you've guided us through, as you and I speak, it's Thursday afternoon here in London. Uh, by the time listeners or viewers uh hear or watch this, things may well have changed. It's an unpredic table uh story with an unpredictable central character. But what's your gut telling you? Are we heading for a deal? And let's say there is one, and b you know the I Iranians and and Trump do sign on . To what extent I know it's not the whole story, but to what extent will the main problems between the US and uh Iran to what extent could we say those have been resolved? So look, Jonathan, President Trump is predictably unpredictable, so it's always very risky to predict what he's gonna do next. But I do believe that the odds of getting to some sort of a framework understanding um are around 70%. Um and the reason I say that is is just simply because the framework agreement at the end of the day, as I said, gives him enough to be able to um sell this as a victory and move on to other things, Cuba or other priorities. But it let's be honest about what this deal is. It is the best off ramp um in a road that should not have been taken to begin with. But it is also a superficial understanding that doesn't really resolve uh any of the fundamental problems between the two sides. Iran would still have a pathway to nuclear weapons. The stockpile of highly enriched uranium will still be sitting uh somewhere in Iran and unaccounted for Iran according to US intelligence