Future Implications and Foreign Policy

This is the Guardian . The environment has curdled like bad milk. That has given Democrats an opportunity to make inroads in states that are pretty hostile. We are twenty-five weeks away from midterm elections, and Democrats are hoping to take back control of the Senate. They're gonna have to play the political version of an away game. So is America's upper chamber going to turn blue in November? I'm Jonathan Friedland, columnist at The Guardian, and this is Politics Weekly America . And I'm delighted to say that I am joined here by Jonathan Martin, who is Politics Bureau Chief, Senior Political Commentator for Politico, host of their new show on the road, we might talk about that. And as the name suggests, somebody who travels the length and breadth of the United States and we are delighted because this, our very first ever full video episode of Politics Weekly America, you're in London. I mean, talking of timing, unbelievable that you time your week here, Jonathan, for an intense political week. You're an American and an observer of American politics, but what do you think of the goings-on here in Britain and in Westminster? Well, I'm thrilled to be here. I didn't realize it was the first video version of this a steam podcast, so it's good to be on camera. The camera does add 20 pounds. Your your viewers should know that. I'm a lot of spelter in real life. Um no well I couldn't have picked a better week. It's just months ago and um it just turned out to be an extraordinary moment in British politics and uh uh you know walking in here here hearing that streeting resigned and the race could be on uh it makes me mean you want to stay for a few weeks. The midterms can wait and uh stay here and cover cover this election. Although I think we have a pretty able crew of folks here at Politico uh to do it. Yeah, you definitely do, but it does make me think you bring political turmoil with you wherever you go. Wherever I go. But that's sort of the story of the last ten years uh between our two countries, right? Absolutely. It's like this cross-pollination between the two. If you do incidentally want to know more about the Labour succession, Tkiya Starmer, all the battles at the top of the British government. Do listen to Politics Weekly UK and also Today in Focus, where we're covering all of that in great detail, our colleagues following the drama. But uh on this podcast, last week, our guest was the uh legal scholar, Professor uh Leah Littman, who talked to us all about the Supreme Court ruling which appeared to just drive a coach and hoo horses through the Voting Rights Act. And really, you know, cutting to the chase, it seemed to change the chess boards i in such a way that Republicans really essentially are green like to redistrict, to redraw the boundaries of the district there for the congressional elections. And just to explain, obviously in November there's elections for the Senate, we're going to come onto those. But the House, four hundred and thirty-five, separate races, all those districts, the boundaries could be redrawn. Previously on this podcast, we've been saying that Democrats had hoped that all other things being equal, this was really going to be their year. They really should take back the House. Yes. Currently a wafer thin, razor thin Republican majority there, normal year, it would go to them. To what extent does the Supreme Court decision and Um it's not impossible, and it probably wasn't possible two weeks ago, but it's still unlikely. I just think the the political environment is so difficult for Republicans this year because the party in power, which they are, um has to hold the House and Senate uh with a president whose approval ratings are in the thirties, and that's driven in large part by a war that he started, which has caused gas prices to soar in the U.S. And inflation went up again, of course. And we're obviously a very car dependent country. I look there's no question that Democrats have got a bigger challenge now to get back the house , but you made an important point, which is the Republican majority right now is waiver thin. Now what could be interesting though is instead of picking up eighteen, nineteen seats, they only pick up ten or eleven. Uh I think that is certainly possible. And that has implications for obviously 2028, 2030 and beyond when the House is constantly yo-yoing back and forth if you have that narrow uh you know of a majority. But there's no question the Republicans uh in a lot of states now, especially in the South, can go back to the drawing board quite literally and you know, change the lines of these longtime black members of Congress who have lines drawn for themselves as part of the voting Rhtsig Act, and effectively draw out black Democrats to create more white Republican seats. Trevor Burrus And we saw that happen in Tennessee. They wasted no time following that court ruling to Alabama moved. To do that and effectively squeezing out black representation. I'm just interested, because I mentioned you're on the road, you're traveling, you're talking to politicos, polls, and voters alike all the time. Is there a sort of almost a resignation now about this? They're just accepting this is now part of the game that one side will draw a bound It's an arms race. Yeah, I I think the average voter doesn't pay close attention to it, or they hadn't, I should say, until recently. And this is striking, Jonathan, is that this is supposed to happen once a decade accord,ing to our census, after the the the uh decennial census. And they're doing this in the middle of the decade for political advantage. Voters don't like that. It just has the stink of politicians trying to claim power for themselves through sort of unsavory means. And I think that's starting to break through for the first time. The problem is neither party wants to give up the arms race because then you give the other side an advantage. So it's gonna take, I think, a federal law to basically stop gerrymandering and it's hard to find the votes to do that. Yeah. And I suppose when you're talking about people noticing it, black voters are certainly going to notice it when they're in states that have large black populations, Louisiana, Alabama, And I wrote that in this in my column earlier in the week, Jonathan, which is for Republicans to do this, I understand the temptation, but they should be more considerate of the implications of this. So let's turn to the Senate. That's the focus of our conversation today. For a long time it was just taken as read. The Senate was just impossible. The map didn't favor uh Democrats. It was too steep a mountain to climb. Just to explain there are thirty-five seats up this time in November. It's the whole of the House or every single seat, but in the Senate it's usually a thirty thing. A third, a third, a third. Third, a third, a third every couple of years, and there are thirty five seats this year because there are special elections in Florida and Ohio. Now of those, twenty-two are held by Republicans. They're incumbent, very, very hard to dislodge. But it's thought that Democrats could actually make with net gains of four seats, that would be enough to take control of the Senate. Now, given that before it was just a matter of conventional wisdom it was impossible, now people are talking about it. What's changed in between? Maybe it's this point you've made about gas prices. That's really the driver. What made it worse is this war and the gas prices. And that has given Democrats an opportunity to make inroads in states that are pretty hostile. And herein lies the challenge for Democrats. So they're gonna have to play the political version of an away game, right? No, absolutely. They've got to go in deep into make inroads into red state American American. Or they haven't won in years. And Democrats used to win in rural America. They used to win in so-called red states. In our lifetime, hell, in the Obama years, you had you had five of the six senators from the two Dakotas and Montana were Democrats when Obama first took office. That's not very long ago. And that's a thing of the past now. And so the question is can Democrats win back basically half of America, which is what you have to do because every state gets two senators. Now you've already explained exactly how the environment is is inhospitable to Republicans. Surely that has been compounded by this remark of Donald Trump's this week that when he makes his calculations, uh, the economic plight of Americans does not even factor into his thinking. The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about Americans' financial situation and I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing. We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all. What does that do for Republicans campaigning in midterms? Oh it' its's just one more rock in their in their bag that they're carrying up the mountain. It just makes the burden that much heavier. But Trump says and does so much, Jonathan, that it it almost overwhelms the circuits. Now this is one that did break through because it was just so crafted with democratic ad makers and mind you couldn't create a better line. Um but still I think the American voter on Trump is they kind of know what he is. It's almost like he he gets a discount. But it gets to the heart of the moment, which is Democrats' message is as simple as Trump's was in 2024. You gave them a shot to improve the economy and they failed. They're not getting the job done. It's just a very straightforward argument. When you don't have power in America, you don't have to have your own platform or message. All you have to do is blame the other guys, right? Yeah. And affordability, the cost of living it's becoming the It was central in twenty twenty-four, and it certainly is now in the cost of gas. And we can talk more about this. But diesel fuel, fertilizer, and aviation fuel are all part of this. And that is unique Yeah, affect those rural states in particular. Next up we're gonna look at the specific places Democrats could could flip in November and why Jonathan Martin thinks they're focusing on the wrong places. Now, if you are enjoying the conversation so far, please do subscribe to the Politics Weekly Channel. It really does help us out. We'll be back after a short break . I'm Kai Wright. I'm Carrie Sherman. And we are here to tell you about our new show, which is rooted in this feeling that at least I have, I know you have, where you know it's kind of like when you wake up in the morning and you pick up your phone and you're just hit in the face with a fire hose of news, right? Like there's war, there's authoritarianism, our planet is learning. I could go on and on and on. On and on and on. But like we're trying to figure out how to manage it, right? Like how do you manage it? I manage it by leaning in and trying to learn more and trying to figure out, okay, how can I be smarter about this particular topic? And who can I talk to that's going to make me feel better about it? And who can tell me who's responsible for the mess that I'm reading about? So that's our mission. That's the show. Welcome to Stateside with Kai and Carter. We're a new show from The Guardian. We're talking to big thinkers and the best journalists, just trying to understand the world through smart conversation and honest reporting. We don't have billionaires telling us what to say. Stateside with Kai and Carter is out now, every Mondayday, Wednes, and Friday. Follow on Apple Podcasts or catch us wherever you watch or listen. We're back with Politico's Jonathan Martin. So So Jonathan, where could Democrats hope to make gains? Well they have to pick up net four seats to get fifty-one, because if you get fifty, J.D. Vance breaks the tie as the vice president in the Senate. So you need you need net four . Now you may have to get net five because John Fetterman may change parties. We can talk about that shortly, which will be a classic American maneuver after the election. But net four right now. Like I I think the most straightforward path begins in Maine. Susan Collins is the last member of the U.S. Senate who has a seat that the other party has carried in presidential races for the last three elections. We don't have Democrats set senators in red states or Because Maine is a state that has consistently voted Democrats. Yes, she's a Republican. She votes with the Republican. That does tend to be Democratic and presidential elections, and she pulls it off. It's harder this time around for a couple of reasons. One is Trump's not on top of the ticket. Now that may sound counterintuitive, but what she needs Trump to bring out Trump's voters who may not come out for her, especially in rural Maine. The other problem is that so she she she doesn't get the Trump benefit and she gets all the Trump drawback, which is deeply enthusiastic liberals who would crawl across glass to vote against her because they hate Trump and they view her as an enabler. Because she herself is a kind of liberal Republican. There's a again a dying breed, the New England liberal Republican. But that's a vanished endangered species. And she's of that but uh but in bottom line she votes with Republicans and so Democrats want around. They've they've ha picked a candidate who is we would say interesting with British understatement. Graham Platiner is one of these Democrats who's talked about online more than like Lincoln, Jesus and the, Beat les. Um and you know, Taylor Swift these days, I guess I should say to be current. Um, you know, it's just the constant online conversation and obsession about him, which we can talk about more shortly. Um he he is a fascinating background, grew up fairly privileged, got sent to boarding school, uh prep school for us, um and uh you know, went to college, but really was kinda like like aimless and then joined the military, served overseas. When he was overseas he got what was a uh Nazi style tattoo. Now it's not a swastika, it's it's a part of the SS. But that tattoo of the sort of skull and bones , yes. That tattoo along with all of his comments on Reddit, we're in this digital era where everything you say online lives forever, um has created a storm about him and and he's a very left wing candidate, kind of a Bernie Sanders type type uh uh left winger uh in our country. The race has never been about me or really about one person. It's about a movement of working maners who are fed up with being robbed by billionaires and the politicians who own them . We are now taking back our power. But he's worried a lot of Democrats too that maybe Collins can pull this thing out one last time because he does have that baggage, which could alienate centrist voters in Maine. So it's a really interesting debate within the Democratic Party, as to how risky this is. But the state itself, by far, is the most gettable for Democrats broadly, Jonathan. So you start in Maine. Then I think the other two, which Democrats have won in recent years, but have gotten har der are North Carolina and Ohio. These are states that Obama won, but they they've they've really not elected many Democrats in federal elections in in recent years. Roy Cooper, the former governor of North Carolina, probably the best recruit in the country for Democrats, has been on the ballot every four years since 2000 . This is gonna be his seventh statewide campaign. He was the AG, then two-term governor, uh running against kind of a Trump proxy nobody for what was the Tom Tillis seat. And then in Ohio, Sherrod Brown who's the former senator who's now come back for one last ride. Trevor Burrus And he's another one who fits that kind of Bernie Sanders mode a little bit. He kind of worked populist Those are two places you rose wrote a piece recently which began with your tongue in your cheek, I rise in defence of white guys. I mean old white guys, rather crucial. Old white guys. I'm inspiring on myself. But you know the point being that they're they're not glamour candidates, Sheryl Brown or Roy Cooper. They've been around forever. But in a way, it's the fact they've been around. Voters know them. Even in states that otherwise would go red, they feel these guys are the exception. They know them well and they're ready to back them. We should just say as a closing thought on Graham Platner that he's made a whole lot of remarks. But he has apologized for them and said that even with the you know t tattoo he got, he didn't realise what it was, he wasn't in his right mind, uh right head having cut from the yeah and he' hadd and he'd been dr drinking too. So those are states to watch. And you would say that in a way those sort of old meat and potatoes campaigners should be the the ones we watch more than the kind of glamour candidates that have attracted a whole lot more attention for, example , in Texas. Yeah. Look, the the the online culture that we live in in American politics and obviously global politics, and especially the sort of Democratic Party, um they forever trying to find the next hot young thing, which is not abnormal. It's understandable. But what it does when it comes to Senate races is it elevates people and states that perhaps aren't as central to finding what matters, which is fifty-one , fifty-one seats, uh, then it does sort of get folks churned up, whether because they like them or they hate them or if they just are good cause for for conversation, right? There are some Democrats who believe that Alaska actually at this point is as gettable as Ohio is. That's a fascinating conversation. Alaska is a state that has elected in modern times only one Democratic Senator. That was 2008. He lasted for one term. It's a pretty Republican state, but it's a quir ky state. Yeah. And the Democratic nominee is an Alaska native and that gives her immense credibility in a lot of the villages there, w where where she'll get big turnout. She's running against Dan Sullivan, who's fine, a traditional Republican ? But Sullivan isn't that well known there. And what's important to know about Alaska is they have what's called a rank choice voting system, which is hard to explain. We don't have an hour to do it, but effectively it's an instant runoff in which on your ballot, you can pick your second , third, and fourth choice. And so that helps the more moderate candidate win because they get the n the second and third choice. So Peltola is formidable this time around. That's a fascinating one and she's got some attention. But the other attention has gone, as I said, into Texas I should have not skipped over Texas. And people are talking about this guy James Tallerico. Now there's often people in can Democrats uh fall in love with these Texan candidates. Beto O'Rourke was the was the pin up for a while. But Tallerico's got people excited in a way he isn't just a sort of liberal crowd pleaser. He's a man of faith. Yes. He's uh seminarian. He's seminarian. So uh it feels like a really long shot, but every ye every year people think this is the year where d where Texas will turn blue. I'm getting the sense, uh Jonathan, you don't think this is the year. Your listeners should know, your viewers should know. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since Lloyd Benson in nineteen eighty eight. The junkies among you will know that that also was the same year that he was on the ticket with Michael Dukakis. Uh he actually, because of Texas state law, was able to run for Senate too that year. And famously said Senator Yorno Jack Kennedy to Dan Quayle. Yeah. It's that Lloyd Benson. Right. So they haven't won since Benson in eighty eight. They haven't won a governor's race since ninety, Ann Richards. It's hard for Democrats to win statewide in Texas. Beto Aurort came close in twenty eighteen. Tal Rico is now getting tons of buzz, raising a ton of money. What he's not doing is trying to find a way to run toward the center or find a way to make himself more palatable to Texas right-of-center voters. I stood up to the billionaire mega donors defunding our public schools. I led the fight against politicians redrawing our districts to rig elections. And I fought the most extreme abortion ban in the country . Now I want to take that fight to the U.S. Senate. It's a hard state to win if you don't try to win over folks who are right of center because of just the nature of Texas. That said , if Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee and beats the incumbent John Cornyn, well Paxton's got a lot of baggage, and that race gets a lot more interesting. It will certainly be expensive. I just think Texas is difficult and it's very difficult for a liberal to win. And Talarico is not taking steps to sort of moderate himself. Yeah, no, I've I've clogged that too. He's speaking still to the base kind of thing. They could do well. We won't get into that because I want to ask you about the scenario you mentioned, which let's say the Dems Democrat s make those big gains, but at the last moment there's this play in which uh somebody who's already in the Democrat column and already in the Senate, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, flips. Now he said I think to you that he would make a qu in his words a shitty Republican. Now I looked at that quote and thought, great quote, well done Mark J Mark. But I did also think it's not a denial. He's not saying I won't do it. Exactly. People were very excited when he was elected, why do they think he might be uh ripe for flipping? Trevor Burrus Well, this is one of the most fascinating stories in American politics right now. So Fetterman uh was elected as kind of a Bernie left wing acolyte almost in twenty twenty two, um anti establishment candidate, six eight, tattoos, doesn't wear a suit and tie, walks around with a hoodie and shorts on, even in the Senate. He had a stroke. He's had mental health challenges. And he got radicalized after October seventh when, you know, he stayed where he's always been, which was fairly pro Israel, which was a little different about him than most left wingers in America. And the rest of the parties have sort of moved certainly against BB's government. And it it started with that, but now it's become something different. He knows how to get attention now. And he knows that the way you get attention is by punching left. And so he's become Fox News' favorite Democrat because he will criticize Democrats, basically ignores Trump's excesses, and just finds ways to agree with Trump. And so there's now an effort to recruit him. Trump has said openly, whatever kind of money you need, I'll clear the field, uh, and we can get you in 2028 when he's up, we can get you nominated as Republican. The problem is that federal men on abortion, on gay rights, on mar ijuana, on labor issues, is still pretty liberal. He just he he just he's kind of a contrarian. The best guess uh Jonathan is he doesn't run at all in 2028. He deserves one term. But it matters though, because if you have a 50-50 Senate or a 51-49 Senate Democrat, even if he doesn't become a Democrat, let's say he becomes an independent, that puts him in play. So because of the nature of the Senate, he could have a real voice for what what may be the final two years of a one turb career. Yeah . And we listeners uh to this show will remember the how the impact uh Joe Manchin of West Virginia could have. Sometimes the Senate can come down to the whims of one person and John Fetterman could be that person. Tough for me to do this to put you on the spot. But if you and I were speaking after the November midterms, what's your gut telling you? Is the Chamber, the upper house, the Senate Uh I would say today it's narrowly blue. Yeah. By a hair. Yeah. Yeah. Well by a hair is how these things are settled. And for in terms of the uh let's say that scenario does happen, the impact it would have when you still will have a Republican president in the White House we obviously don't know, we're assuming that the House will flip as well. What control, what power given that system, uh, would Democrats actually have if they did take back the Senate? Well the important element, whether it's House or Senate or both is they would have subpoena power in at least one chamber, which means that they can haul up corporate executives, they can haul up uh Trump officials, uh uh demand documents. Now, a lot of us will go to the court because Trump will will fight it and try to pull it out, but they will have investigatory power that they don't have now and can can control the sort of um what you would call the inquiries uh in a way that would be constantly in the news. Yeah. I mean the just the pardons and a lot of the the the corruption um would be constantly exposed. Yeah. And the power of course over nominations and court nominations and the like. Exactly. As you know, Jonathan, we do always like to ask our guests a what else question, something a bit different. As we speak, Donald Trump is wrapping up his trip to China with a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. There's been, you know, so much on the agenda, whether it is Taiwan, whether it's the trade war, even uh the Iran war. How do you feel it's gone? hold up a piece of paper that he has signed and say they have a deal on something. The details don't matter. It could be a cocktail napkin, Jonathan. He just wants to get the image of doing a deal with G. And he wants to be able to say that we got a great deal. He's the biggest salesman in the world. Now , that's a different approach that the the Chinese government has. They actually they actually want a substantive deal if there's going to be be be one at all. But look, there are a couple things. Number one is what the Americans want is the access to the minerals in China, right? The rare earths fairly unfettered. We also wanna want to be able to sell our planes and our soybeans to the Chinese. And so I think there 's hope for some kind of an agreement on those things. Maybe the Chinese could take a more of a role in ending the Iran war. I just I have a hard time seeing that happen. I'll tell you what the big conversation back in the States is is Trump going to be so desperate to get any kind of a deal with the Chinese that he sells out Taiwan? And there's a lot of concern about that. Especially on the right by the way, because the hawkish right in America is still very much pro-Taiwan and deeply skeptical about Beijing. Well, if you want to know more on that trip that Trump has made to China, a lot is at stake. Do make sure to listen to Thursday's episode of our sister podcast today in focus. But Jonathan Martin, thank you so much for joining me on Politics Weekly America. point this year. I don't know who we're going to talk to. Somebody in British politics. Maybe Kier. Maybe he'll be gone. Maybe it'll be Nigel Farage. Who knows who it's going to be? Tony Blair, are you available still? We'll find somebody and we'll talk about food, politics, and place. Hopefully somewhere here in the UK. Thank you, Jonathan. And that is all from me for this week, as you might have picked up. You can now watch episodes of Politics Weekly America on YouTube, if you've ever wondered, how I react, how my eyebrows move as I hear about the latest Trump truth social dump. You can now watch in high quality. And plans are in the works for more politics weekly America content coming on some of your favourite social media channels. So I will make sure to keep you posted on all of that. Meanwhile, stateside with Kai and Carter, the new video podcast from our New York office launched this week, hosted by our colleagues Kai Wright and Carter Sherman each week. They're going to be trying to make sense of some of the biggest stories happening right now. Their first episode was with the former Democratic politician and voting rights activist Stacey Abrams. You can find that in full video on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. But for now, it's goodbye. The producer is Danielle Stevens. The executive producer this week, James Tyndale. I'm Jonathan Friedland. Thanks as always for listening. This is The Guardian.