Future Prospects and By-Election Scenarios

This is the Guardian Still waiting in line. Again That's time you'll never get back Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot comot Join them to save up to ninety percent off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail, and packages in seconds. then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps dot com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift taxes and fees apply the tool. Fresh allegations about Neidel Farge's undeclared financial gifts have been revealed He did give support to Nigel before he was a member of Parliament. He hasn't done so since he became a member of Parliament No rules have been broken whatsoever, willll look at what these allegations mean for reform UK's leader whether the party is on the brink of interernal collapse I'm Pippa Kara And I'm Kn Stacy. This is Politics Weekly. the guardian Well, hello Hi Pippa, how are you feeling? Are you tired like the rest of England's m You forget, Kira, I'm a Scot. I I didn't stay up for the match. I should say we're talking on Monday morning, obviously and the world is those who didn't stay up all night are waking up to the news that England has made it through to the next round of the World Cup having beaten to Mexico three two at the Ateeca Stadium. I decided my sleep was more important because I wanted to be bright and busushy tailed on this podcast this morning. Yeah, I set my alarm woke up, checked the Guardian's website and found out that the match had been delayed by an hour. so went back to bed Woke up, watched it live. then woke my son up in time to watch the whole game, which he is now doing as we record this downstairs. He is watching the whole game being shown asliff live on the BBC, but I've had to pretend to him that I didn't wake up earlier on. So I've been cheering the goals alongside him as if I'm seeing them for the first time. But yes, I am feeling a little bit groggy this morning, so apologies for that. Interesting to see how many people make it into the office or decide that they need a work from home day Okay so Kiran over the last few weeks, we've been very busy focusing on Andy Burnham, his return to Parliament, and of course he's now the Prime Minister in waiting, and we'll continue to scrutinize him in the run up to him taking over at Downing Street. But there's another big figure in British politics that's been rather missing from the spotlight until the last few days, and that is, of course, the reform UK leader Nigel Farage Now we at the Guardian have scrutinized Nigel Farage, looked closely at his finances for a very long time years, in fact, and particularly so in the last few months gift that he received from Christopher Harbourne five million pounds undisclosed gift. Christopher Harbourne's the Thai based crypto billionaire. We revealed that a few months ago, our colleague Anna Isaac, and there's been a steady stream of stories since. But of course there was another big series of allegations made over the weekend in the Sunday Times. You were working yesterday. What did they involve I was, yes, this all revolves around a man called George Cotrll Now we've known about George Cotrll for a while He's quite young. he's in his thirties, but he is a major donor to reform UK. There have been in the last year or so, some donations that Nigel Farage has declared. if you thousand pounds here and there for things like the old trip But it turns out that George Cultrll has been donating to Nigel Farash undisclosed for a much longer period of time. Again, a bit like the Christopher Harbourne situation before Farage became an MP. So it turns out that Cottrell had paid for two or three members of staff for Farage for his social media team. He also let him stay in a mansion that Cottrell rent somewhere near Buckham Palace. And he seems to have paid for things like trips for the reform UK leader. Now, none of this was disclosed, even though financial rules, electoral Commission, parliamentary rules say that you do have to disclose any gifts and donations that you receive in the twelve months before you become an MP what this all hinges on is Farage claims, bit like the Christopher Harble Money again, that these were personal gifts, nothing to do with his political activities and therefore didn't need disclosing The problem is that a lot of them, if you look at the social media team, for example, they were producing content that very much was political in nature. Farisha has to prove possibly to the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner that this was not political at all and was a purely personal gift. And the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner is already looking into that five million gift, which Farro said was for security and he's also denied any wrongdoing in accepting it. Equally, the defence from reform yesterday from Robert Genereick, who was on the media round It seemed to be that his relationship with George Cultral was a personal one. As you say, questions over what the money was actually used for. And then last night, there was a new allegation, in fact, a revelation, we should probably say, which was that the Sunday Times published a business card that George Cultral had been using with a reform logo on it and Nigel Farage's email address I think it' about four different allegations he's looking into with Farage. We' certainly expecting the results of the Christopher Harbourne gift to be published before Parliamentary recess, which is only a couple of weeks away. So even Kiran though, Nigel Farage says that this is an establishment hit job and that he's done nothing wrong. It is pretty uncomfortable territory for the Reform U K leader and sort of the scrutiny he's having on his finances now in a way that he never has. But why does this actually matter? It's really interesting, isn't it? Because until the last few weeks, really, Nigel Farage has been As you say, people are kind of dominating the political agenda, giving these regular press conferences every Monday, setting the terms of debate making everybody else in Westminster dance to his tune, but he' suddenly got very, very quiet indeed. And that really happened after our colleague, as you say, Anna Isaac published her revelations about the money from Christopher Harbourne These revelations about his closeness to crypto billionaires and entrepreneurs seem to have damaged him in a way that a lot of other allegations haven't. and it's kind of very interesting watching that play out If you look at polling, it suggests that the thing that voters dislike most about Nigel Farage are his links to some of his city connections. know there is a feeling among voters that they don't know who his friends are and they don't know where all this money is coming from. That might be unfair, All of these business dealings might be completely above board. But the more it comes out that there are undisclosed pots of money floating around that have helped keep Nigel Farage afloat for the last year or two I think that really does seem to be striking a chord with voters And let's not forget, all could end up in a by election in Clackon. I mean, that really would be something. Now we'll come on to that, but I suppose at the heart of all of this is the potential conflict of interest. And the allegation, obviously denied by Farage, is that these individuals are ultimately paying for access. This has been made more difficult for reform by the fact that it emerged, the Guardian again revealed that Farage in a meeting which he had with the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey actually lobbied against the bank setting up its own form of cryptocurrency, which would obviously be a potential rival for some of the firms that Arborne was involved with. There is definitely plenty for the commommissioner to look into. he may decide that Farraage is stuck within the terms of the rules. But regardless of the outcome of that particular strand of the investigation, I think you're right to say that this is the first time that the public of have suddenly sort of gone you it' like the smell test. People don't really like the idea of big money floating around British politics and potentially potentially people g access for it And while you know there will always be a chunk of reformed supporters, and I get this a lot of my social media, saying Well, we don't care. It's Nigel Farage, we think we'll shake up the establishment and actually we would back him come what may. This feels like the first time that actually that sort of middle chunk of voters who could be swayed by him but equally might putut off I sort of having a pause of thought and thinking, you know what actually this isn't really what we'd expect from Somebody that says that they are you know not part of the establishment, that they are you on the side of ordinary people, all the billions swirling around and this proximity to some of these very, very wealthy friends and donors, I think probably doesn't rest very easily with quite a few people. We should just tell listeners probably a little bit about George Cotrll himself because he does seem like an extraordinary character He's the son of British two British aristocrats Exactly where his money comes from is a little unclear. He has been involved in various kind of cryptocurrency businesses. But perhaps most startlingly, he's actually served time in a U S. jail for fraud for wire fraud, which was all to do with a plot to launder dark money. So He obviously has, you know some interestnting connections, he's wrapped up in a very complicated set of business arrangements to do with cryptocurrency there are accusations that he has . basically helped funnel money into crypto gambling companies, which he denies, but which aren't actually licensed in the UK. So there's a whole world here of crypto entrepreneurs who are operating, I think probably on the margins of what is legal. And part of the reason for that is because the law is still struggling to keep up with this fast emerging technology. that's why that nexus of politics and crypto is really, really interesting. We should mention, by the way, that Donald Trump has made billions of dollars recently through his own cryptocurrency businesses. So this could be big business for politicians willing to take advantage of it. and meanwhile, regulators are desperately trying to get ahead of them and figure out what should be allowed and what shouldn't be. So it's a very sensitive areariant in politics right now And then finally, should just quickly say since you're mentioning regulators that The government's actually going to launch a crackdown on large political donations today. know We've reported on this before, but they're finally doing it now, aren't they? And it's going to be a series of measures to make political funding more transparent, including restrictions on donations from foreign based benefactors, all designed, of course, to clean up politics or at least this perception there's sort of big bucks floating around potential overseas influence and so on in British politics. So we will be reporting more on that later today. That is a really interesting set of measures, PIPA. A couple of things that I pull out. One is that they're now going to put a one hundred thousand pound cap on donations for anybody coming into the UK It currently exists for anybody who's out of the UK, but they're safe for twelve months after you enter the UK, having been based abroad, you will not be allowed to donate more than one hundred thousand pounds They're putting in some more transparency rules for companies And they're also for the first time putting disclosure rules on candidates. So even if you're an unsuccessful candidate for Parliament, you will have to fulfill disclosure rules. What they are not doing, what the government has decided not to do, however, is just put an outright cap on donations. And that is something a lot of people in Parliament and outside Parliament want to see. One of them is the Labor backbencher, Stella Creasey, who says she's going to bring an amendment to the bill when it comes I think probably on the fourteenth of July. And it wouldll be interesting to see how many Labour MPs back her in calling for a hard and fast cap because I think opinion is changing on this one. OkayK, well let's pause here for a moment and when we come back, we'll be talking about the termal inside reform UK The World Cuubp is back and because we have no office which football Week is going daily. If you want a podcast with more footballing and heritage than a Brazil number ten, more talent than a French starting eleven and more predictable than an England penalty shootout, look go further. We'll have thirty three daily episodes covering not just the goals and the glory, but the politics and the problems of this year's tournament. Can England and sixty years of have hurt join me, Max Ruston, our expert panel and Barry every day of the tournament Welc up Daily, listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch the full episodes on YouTube Still waiting in line Again That's time you'll never get back Save time and money with stamps dot comot Over four million businesses have skipped the line with stamps dot comot Join them to save up to ninety percent off carrier rates from your computer or phone right now. Print postage for certified mail, registered mail and packages in seconds, then schedule a pickup right from your home or office. For a limited time, go to stamps dot com and use code podcast for a free welcome gift taxes and fees applly. Welcome back. And I hear in the turmil inside reform UK at the moment isn't just as a result of Nigel Faris's finances, although I'm sure that can't be helping. There's also quite a lot of tensions generally. And I think that probably corresponds with this sort of they haven't fallen in the polls particularly, but sort of this reaching this ceiling in the polling and this feeling that the momentum that they so clearly had you know this time a year ago has dissipated a bit and the rival in the party of new figures from the Conservative Party, Robert Generk, sob Brvman and so on Our colleagues, Rarina Mason, Peter Walker, and Ben Quinn did a great piece over the weekend, which will put in the show notes about what's actually going on inside reform, and whether it could even lead to Nigel Farage deciding actually he wanted to quit politics What have you picked up over the weekend? Yeah, I mean, it was really interesting actually watching Robert Genrick on the BBC on Sunday morning. He was doing the usual defense of Nigel Farage But I thought It was kind of fascinating what he said for a couple of reasons. So obviously Robert Jenererick is the most high profile defector. from the Conservatives. He is now the economic spokesperson for reformer. and as such he's probably the most senior politician in reform apart from Farage himself. And what he said a couple of times in recent days doesn't necessarily help his party leader On Sunday morning when he was being interviewed by Laura Kosberg, the first thing he said is he completely admitted all of the money had been given to Farage by George Cartrll. He didn't try and hide, he didn't try and obfuscate. He said, yes, absolutely, this money has been paid. There's no question about it. So o. that to fy, mayaybe that's the party line George Cottrll is an old friend of Nigel Farge's. He did give support to Nigel before he was a member of Parliament He hasn't done so since he became a member of Parliament No rules have been broken. What. He also said, well, look, we think that this is all within the rules and he tried to smear the Sunday Times in there, which kind of fell a little bit flat as an attack line. But he did say, and he said this a couple of times recently, I think these are valid questions for journalists to be asking. Now let's remember that when Niichl Farage last did a media round, he told interviewers repeatedly, this is none of your business It's none of your business how I spend my money. This is my personal money, and you are not within your rights to ask that question Robert Genereick has made it very clear over the last couple of weeks he thinks the interviewers are within their rights to ask that question. And it just seemed to me there's a little chink of light opening up there between Farage and his most likely successor, which I think is causing his own problems. It's so interesting, isn't it? Because obviously Robert Genereich has been a leading light inside the Conservative Party for many, many years, including Lots of those years when the Tory Party itself was marired in scandal. So probably is quite adept at not just at dealing with these things as they come up, but also seeing what direction things are going in and making sure that you're kind of like ahead of any sort of outcome of any inquiry. But as you say, there' be plenty of people inside reform who are already a bit skeptical about his motives. I don't forget that Generek ran against Kemy Badenoock to be the Tory leader and lost and then left the party shortly afterwards. And this has been longstanding suspicion that he is well, he's an incredibly ambitious man, but that he's got his eye on the reform crowown now having failed to get the Tory one, that he's sort of seen what's happening on the right and decided that that is his best chance for eventually making it into Downing Street And there's plenty of people that have been involved in reform or any of its of predecessor parties, you know, Brexit partarty, UKip who' been around for a very, very long time and don't like what they see as this incursion from the Tory partarty. They think it dilutes reforms brand and it makes it too easy for their opponents to say, look, they're just the same as the Conservative partarty, look at the number of MPs they've got. There's a big chunk of ory defector is either current MPs former MPs and also at councillor level. who have moved over, and in fact, so much so that Nigel Farage had to say, if you want to defect before the local elections, you need to do it by this day, he tells us we're not going to accept you anymore. know now is your last chance because of their concerns, that people would just say, well, this is the Tory Party two point zero. And of course, the nation resoundingly rejected the conservatives at the last general election. So Genrik's personal ambitions, the concerns anyway within reform about diluting the brand And now as you say, the sort of language he's used in the last couple of weeks, suggesting actually the scrutiny of Farage, which Farage himself hasn't welcomed might be a sort of a justifiable course are unlikely to go down particularly well within the party. Yeah, we know that Zia Yusf in particular has been uncomfortable with some of these Tory defections and has kind of made veiled messages on social media suggesting that he is unhappy. I think you and I have discussed before whether it's a good idea to accept so many Tories into your ranks. And I've previously argued that I think it was good for reform to do that because the major barrier they had between being a kind of strong insurgent party and then becoming the most likely party of government was being seen as acceptable in the minds of relatively center right voters, the kind of people who'd always voted Tory in the past possibly seen Nigel Farage at his previous incarnations as a bit too far right wing for their liking. And this would kind of nullify some of that in their minds. but Having argued that, it was interesting to see that in Makerfield restore, that's the kind of further right party hard right, maybe far right you would say, led by Rupert Low, really eating into the reform voture. And you what people were saying up on the doorstep there was, well we do think that reform are starting to look like the establishment are starting to look like the Tories. So there are signs that it's weakening their electoral appeal. I mean whether they can keep such a broad tent of voters or not is interesting. But you know, you were mentioning that piece that Roena, Peta and Ben wrote over the weekend. One of the most interesting things I thought in that was this suggestion that maybe Farage is getting a little bit tired Uh Maybe, you know, he's been flat out for weeks, months, years, really And maybe it's all started to get to him a little bit. and even suggestions from some close to reform that he could end up resigning, which seems like an extraordinary thing, given he's taken them to where they are now But I do wonder whether you know, he's got the stomach for the next few years When he's asked, he says, yes, he does want to be Prime Minister. but there's been a couple of interviews he's done recently. I think of one that he did with Nick Ferrari on LBC, where he talked about himself being more of a preacher than a politician, thati. e. liking sort of the campaign more than he does the actual sort of the nitty gritty of parliamentary work. And also talked about wanting and this isn't the first time he's done this, talking about sort of wanting to bring on the next generation and let's see where we are at the next election. there might be some sort of bright new hope or something which ultimately suggests that He actually isn't one hundred percent sure about whether he actually wants to go into Downing Street. And look, he's been in the public eye for a very long time. He may have failed to win many seats, but he has been you whether he was a member of the European Parliament or a head of successive right wing parties in the UK, he has been had a public profile for a very long time And I do know I believe them when they say that he gets a lot of security and u You know even if's just walking down the street getting a lot of negative attention because he is such a divisive figure I'm And he also has I guess this sort of another option, which is to have a life which is you know he's closeted behind closed doors. He's obviously got a lot of money. He could make a lot more if he wasn't in politics and people like us pouring over his finances. And he's seen what can happen stateside that you know, he has a profile there. There's currently a president in the White House who is a friend who seems to have a much more relaxed approach to making money out of a public profile that's rowned through politics And maybe there's an option for a different life for him. And while I'm sure he would say if pressed that you know he's determined to lead the party to general election success and to end up in Downing Street It's not entirely clear to me that that is actually what he wants Maybe the summer has come at a good time and he gets a bit of a break and he'll bounce back in the autumn at Reform confference. we'll have to see. But certainly as think St stand at the moment, I can understand why there are people inside Reform UK who are questioning whether he's in for the long haul I also think I would just kind of set this in a longer context Discussions about Nigel Farish is fitness and his health have really dogged him for years, ever since the plane crash where he was quite badly injured back in his UCKip days And since then, he hass had recurring back pain. And I remember when I used to report on UKIip, lots of people in the party saying, you know, he's really struggling. he's in pain a lot of the time. He won't be able to keep this up he does find a way to just carry on and he does seem to have the stamina of an ox. So there are often internal discussions of people around Nigel Farage doubting that he's fit enough to carry on, but somehow he often seems to manag to do so. We should say, Kiirin that the allegations around Nigel Farage's health, as our colleagues report in their piece, are dismissed by those in Reform UK as Tory smears. But let's go back a little bit to the prospect of a by election in Clackton. Now if the Commissioner of standards Parliamentary Commissioner decides to suspend Nigel Farage to spend him for more than ten sitting days, that triggers a potential recall petition in the constituency, which basically means that there's the option of his constituents voting for a by election If that threshold is then met, then of course there is a by election. Now as things stand at the moment, I think my money would be on Nigl Farge winning again. But you mentioned the restore threat and the fact that that is rising on the right of reform. And Farage has struggled a bit. We saw this during the Makerfield by election when having tried to sort of present his party as a sort of a bigger tent on the right He leaned quite heavily into anti white racism and he wred to substack on it and sort of went back to sort reform of maybe eighteen months, two years ago, presumably because they were worried about the threat on the right. So you'd imagine Rore would also stand in Galacton and then of course, there's Conservatives as well. It' be interesting to see what Labor did. I suspect that they would kind of take a back seat on this one Farage inevitably would want to make it into if it happens, would want to make it into a big moment to try and sort of get back some of the momentum that his party has lost. You know, they've kind of peaked at sort I think it was just over thirty percent in the polls and have been lower than that since. And while low thirty percent is enough to make them the biggest party after a general election, it would be very difficult to get into Downing Street on their own. They would need you they wouldd be unlikely to have a majority, and would need the support of other parties on the right to do so. So by election for Farage would be an opportunity to try and inject some momentum back into the race to characterize him as the only one take on Andy Burnham, who at that point would be Prime Minister and to sort of reframe the fight with not just on the ground in the constituency, but with the Labour Gvernment nationally But you mentioned what Labour might do if there was a by election in Clon, and I've spoken to labour figures about this and they are actually thinking about this quite hard. And I think what they would really like to do is come up with an independent candidate that can run mayaybe with labour and the Tories taking a backseat and an independent candidate who perhaps has the trust of voters and doesn't look like a party political stooge