UK Relations and Rejoining the EU

This is the guardian . Hello. Hello. Well is recess this week. So MPs are back at home in their constituencies, catching up on constituency business, popping up many of them to make a field to do a bit of campaigning and we thought this week would be a good time to answer some of your questions. Remember that if you do want to get in touch with us, you can always email us on politicsweeklyuk at thegardian.com and we'll endeavour to get through as many of them as we can. We love hearing from you. Let's start off with something that people have been emailing us quite a lot about recently, and that is the State of the Labour Party, and Keir Starman's leadership and the upcoming by-election in Makefield, all of which are of course tied together. Pippa, as you say, there's going to be a lot of Labour MPs traipsing up to Makefield over the next few days. The polls there are fascinating. It very clearly is a two-horse race with Labour and reform way ahead of all the other parties, but on a knife edge between the two of them. Really interestingly, if there is any kind of uh split in either side of that vote, either on the progressive side or the right side, and the progressives maybe with the Greens just getting a few percentage points here and there, or on the right of politics, interestingly we're seeing restore the kind of really hard right party that split off from reform also doing well, that could have a a huge impact not only on that by election, but on who becomes prime minister. Yeah, but it's worth saying of course that they are still in single figures uh of percentage points compared to Labour and Reform, who are both up there fighting over 30-40% of the vote each. But they could, as you say, beat in eat into reform's vote. And I think what's really interesting is that despite the data in front of us, the polling that's been done on this constituency, constituency polls are really hard to do. But even if you look at how well reform did during the local elections a couple of weeks ago, winning eight wards across the whole Wigan constituency, and indeed if you look at the at how tight it was at the general election and of course reform has has pulled much higher ever since then, you'd think it was reforms to take. But if you compare it with with data on when Andy Burnham is a candidate, you go back to just a couple of months before the general election to the Manchester Mayor, he took 63% of the vote, which was way higher than Labour's vote share in the general election. And any polling which has been done comparing him, a Labour candidate versus reform, reform wins, a Labour candidate to his Andy Burnham versus reform, the probability of Andy Burnham winning is much higher. And certainly what we're already picking up in the streets is that there is this probably unsurprisingly Burnham effect. He's very well known in the area. He's seen as like a champion of you know people across Greater Manchester. That doesn't mean it's going to be a walk-in for him, but he's managed to be both the Labour candidate and sort of like the insurgent by by you know running on this campaign, which is effectively saying if you vote for me you can get rid of Keir Stormer. Yeah. Um and and so far um and it's very early days, obviously the election isn't till it isn't until June the eighteenth, but so far the momentum seems to be with him. Well, let's start with a question about Makerfield. Stephen has emailed to say I'll avoid a make or break maker field pun. Actually, that's that's not bad. I think we could work that one in. But there's been a lot of talk about how this is existential for Labour. Is it equally at least as important for reform? If Burnham wins, where does it leave reform? That's a really good question. I I'll just say I don't think it is quite as important for reform. But anyway, go, Pippa, what do you think? Well, this is definitely a proof point for the Labour Party. The argument going that if Andy Burnham can win in a seat which voted predominantly leave at the Brexit referend um, if he can vote if he can win in a seat which on paper at least as we've discussed is uh looks like it's reforms for the taking, then that suggests that Labour under Andy Burnham could start to win back the sorts of places they need to win or need to retain in order to to hang on at the next general election. Now obviously all the polling and all the suggestions has been that under Keir Starmer that would not be the case. And that's given lots of Labour MPs a little bit of hope. And this is obviously very complicated and whether he would be able to translate that sort of insurgent sentiment into government when you're under pressure to make all sorts of really quick and difficult decisions is a whole other thing. But as things stand at the moment, it's seen as being a proof point. The one little caveat I just add to that, Kieran, is that though Makerfield voted leave at the Brexit referendum, the whole country has shifted. And if there was an EU referendum again tomorrow, it would vote it would go it would tip in vo in favour of Romaine. And Makerfield is one of those constituencies that would just tip in favour of Romaine, which is why I think the sort of reform attempts to make very early on, first week of the campaign, first days of it, to make Brexit a big deal, isn't really gonna hit home in the way they might hope. Yeah, that's probably true. What I would say is talking to Labour people involved in that campaign, they're much more concerned about the immigration question. Yeah. They're uh they are conscious that Andy Burnham, you know, has this appeal on what we call the soft left of the Labour Party. They're kind of roughly the centre of gravity of where the party is, much of which thinks that the existing government's uh approach to immigration has been too tough. Um, and they're worried that Andy Burnham will end up trying to appeal to those people and therefore alienate the voters in Makefield. Uh now our colleague Jess Elga and I did a story last week saying that Annie Burnham was actually going to back the um attempts by Shabana Mahmoud to make it harder to uh get settled status in the UK and to clamp down on both legal and illegal migration. That I think is quite an important thing for their campaign because they really don't want to be attacked on that flank during this election. So let's see what happens there. Yeah. But the reason I say I don't agree with Stephen that this is as important for reform as it is for Labour, because let's just think through the consequences of a loss for each of those parties. A loss for reform, okay, that is tough, but this was a seat where Labour had a five and a half thousand majority at the last election. There's a popular candidate, very, very well known candidate they're up against. That's a very unusual set of circumstances. They can turn around and say, hey, look at a general election, it will be different. We're not fighting Andy Burnham in every seat, come the next election. For Labour, if they lose this, you end up with a Prime Minister in Downing Street who has been completely hobbled, uh, whose power has seeped away , uh, you know, a hundred odd of whose MPs now think they should resign, and no obvious successor. You've got West Street in there, who apparently doesn't have the numbers. Uh, you've got various other people kind of jostling for position on the left of the party. But there is no strategy for how to get out of this situation for Labour if Andy Burnham loses. And that's why I think we are focusing a lot, although I take Stephen's point, but I think we're focusing a lot on what this means for Labour rather than for any other party. Talking of Labour, we've got an email here from Tiger, who's emails us to say they don't believe that Starmer has done enough to warrant the levels of hate that he's experiencing. And this is something that's been discussed a lot here and hasn't it? Is that he has become such a hate figure. Um, and as Tiger says, he's made some mistakes, but I don't think that's why people dislike him. If anything, the mistakes are just an excuse to dislike him. And makes the point that that they think that any Labour PM in this situation with the inheritance from the Tories on the economy and the lack of trust in the political classes, the sort of difficult international position, only really being voted in this loveless landslide to get the Tories out, and then sort of, you know, reform and the Greens, as as Tiger puts it, stirring up grievance from the left of and right, would seriously struggle. So Andy Burnham might not find things any different should he make it back to Westminster and should he make it into number 10. And this is a really fascinating point. We've actually written about this before as well and talked about it lots, um, Tiger, about why so much of this, you know, why there's so much victory off Kirstarmer. And you hear this from Libre MPs out of the doors and maker fields and elsewhere, that the sort of the first thing that people say to them often is not about the cost of living or immigration or whatever, it's just like I want that guy out. And and yes, he has made mistakes, and we've covered lots of them in the podcast, but he is it's almost disproportionate, this dislike for him. And there's a couple of things as I say, and I'm sure you have your views as well, Kieran. But um I thought very early on, what we saw happening was that this huge sort of sense of distrust and disaffection that has been that was aimed at the Conservatives. When Labour took over , it just transferred over towards Labour because Labour wasn't brought in on a sort of wave of hope and optimism for you know a better future and yes they haven't as far as many voters are concerned delivered change fast enough, but it wasn't sort of like a massive endorsement for them, it was as much about kicking the Tories out. So there's a lot of people that still felt felt disgruntled about the about the political system, didn't feel it worked for them, understandably, in many cases. Um, and so that dislike and distrust translat ed over and the focal point obviously becomes the prime minister. So I think that's sort of like at at at its root, that's why Keir Thomas found himself in this position. I think all of that is true, but I think there's something else here and I think there's something personal. Um, and you do pick it up when you talk to voters. People may not like the system, they may not like the situation they find themselves in, but they also just do not like Keir Starmer. And I think that part of that is they pick up a sense from him, and this is just from my conversations with people, but they pick up a sense from him that he talks down to people. And that is one of the things that British voters really hate the most. And if you look at the most popular politicians we've had in recent times, they're often the ones who don't talk down to people, and often the ones who kind of with a nudge and a wink let the voters know, hey, this is all a bit of a game, but you know, I'm letting you in on this game with me . So it was often baffling, I think, for people, especially on the left, as to why Boris Johnson was so popular for a long time. The reason I always thought is because he never took it seriously, but he made it clear to voters he wasn't taking it seriously and therefore they didn't feel like they were being talked down to they felt like they were being let in on the joke and that is a much more powerful thing to be able to do than to do what Keir Star mer constantly does, which is kind of very in a very serious way, kind of lecture the nation on what it should be doing. And I and I think there is just something personal about that that people don't like. And I suppose the other personal thing you could add is that Keir Starmer made huge play of being uh no, this wasn't his term, this was Lisa Nandy's term, Mr. Rules. Yeah. You know, all the the way through pandemic, all the sort of attacks on Boris Johnson over party gate and and you know, sort of conduct within the Conservative Party, you know, it was always we would do things differently. We would hold ourselves to higher et hical standards. And yet when Labour came in initially with the sort of the freebies gate row, and then subsequently there'd been other examples, look, politicians are human. People make mistakes, right? Angela Rayner and her tax, you know, there's lots of examples. But because Labour had sort of, or Keir Starmer specifically, you know, this North London lawyer as he's seen by many people, had set himself, set the party such high standards, they were never going to be able to meet them. And I think that has that has intensified the sort of the feelings um that people have towards them which I think the reality is is that when you you are so disliked and this personal approval rating is a lower, uh you know, they're record lows. And while if you take um if you there's a great Ipsos chart which shows approval ratings for every prime minister since Tony Blair. And if you can imagine a downward arc, and apart from Liz Truss, who's kind of off on her own as being uniquely, um uniquely badly thought of by the public. They' allre had sort of the latest step down on this arc. So there's no, you know, suggestion that whoever comes next with Nigel Farage or Andy Burnham would be anything different than another step down. Um but I think all of that probably helps explain why uh you know hopefully answers your question, Tiger, as to why Keostarmer himself is so disliked. Let's pause here for a minute and when we come back we'll answer more of your questions. I'm Kai Wright. I'm Carrie Sherman. And we are here to tell you about our new show, which is rooted in this feeling that at least I have, I know you have, where you know it's kind of like when you wake up in the morning and you pick up your phone and you're just hit in the face with a fire hose of news, right? Like There's war, there's authoritarianism, our planet is learning. I could go on and on and on. On and on and on, but like we're trying to figure out how to manage it, right? Like how do you manage it? I manage it by leaning in and trying to learn more and trying to figure out, okay, how can I be smarter about this particular topic? And who can I talk to that's going to make me feel better about it? And who can tell me who's responsible for the mess that I'm reading about? So that's our mission. That's the show. Welcome to Stateside with Kai and Carter. We're a new show from The Guardian. We're talking to big thinkers and the best journalists, just trying to understand the world through smart conversation and honest reporting. We don't have billionaires telling us what to say. Stateside with Kai and Carter is out now, every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Follow on Apple Podcasts or catch us wherever you watch or listen. Welcome back. Uh West Streeting's been doing the rounds this past week. He gave his resignation speech in the House of Commons last Wednesday saying that Labour needed to change course or hand the keys of number ten to reform. Pipper, you spoke to him last week, uh and that episode was on camera and is on our YouTube channel. We'll provide a link uh in the show notes below. But what did you think of him? We've we've interviewed him on camera before. Uh he's he's obviously pretty slick at these things. What what kind of a mood was he in? Yeah, it was actually quite surprising, Kieran, because he was pretty upbeat despite the sort of tumultuous week he's had before. And I think what came through to me is that he, you know, he's a politician to his fingertips, right? And he is able to he he's he's now in a position, now he's out of cabinet where he feels I guess a bit liberated to say what he wants and he's got all these things that he wants to say about the Labour Party, about policy, we talked about tax, we talked about um housing, we talked about social care. Um and he was able to actually sort of land the sorts of political attacks that he wanted to. So who's very sort of upbeat. And I should say we're hoping to do similar interviews with uh Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham if you're listening. Um so that so that we we can ask him um all sorts of questions about what his platform would be as well. And indeed, maybe even the Prime Minister. We'll do our best to get that anyway. But the the thing which really cut through to me with West Streeting was how confident he was, even though we know he didn't get the numbers to launch a leadership bid a few days ago, even though he says he did. And he kept talking about how it was inevitable that Keir Starmer was going to go and that there was definitely going to be a contest and all of these things about how he would be in a good position to win over the Labour left, the Labour membership, who of course he would need to do were he to get beyond the MP's nomination stage. And it was really fascinating how self-assured he is. Now, of course, that is what also people also what people don't like about him. And I had various messages from people that watch the the um the video on YouTube , including um some Labour MPs who were absolutely furious with him because they think he's doing far too much to undermine not just Keir Starmer, but the whole government. Because of course the one thing we know the public doesn't like is sort of inter Nissan warfare and Labour is on the brink of launching right into that. Well that's interesting because you're talking about Labour MPs being furious about him undermining the government. That suggests that there are still some MPs out there who are committed to this government and this Prime Minister. If it ends up that Labour lose Makerfield, or for whatever reason, the leadership challenge we're expecting doesn't happen, what what where does that leave Keir Starmer? Is there a way back for him? I think it's a really important question, and obviously there's different scenarios. This is th this particular scenario is is is based on or is predicated on Andy Burnham losing in Makerfield, and on West reating not meeting the nomination threshold to launch a contest uh against Keir Starmer, then Keir Starmer kind of hobbles on, doesn't he? Until such a point as there's another challenge in future. Or there's a scenario where West Streeting does manage to get the numbers, and either Keir Starmer or a figure on the soft left of the party, probably Angela Rainer or Ed Miliban, standing in and joining a contest, um, then Keir Starmer obviously has a big decision about what he should do. And I think were there to be a soft left candidate, he would somebody would be saying to him the numbers aren't there in the Labour Party, you can you can maybe beat West Streeting, but you can't beat somebody on the soft left. However, for all the sort of different permutations of what could unfold depending on how Labour does in maker field, leadership contests, all of that . I think we can't underestimate in this sort of like very tumultuous political time in which we live, the significance of events . Picture a world, Kieran, where Russia and Ukraine reach some sort of agreement and that conflict comes to an end. The security threat on Europe's border decreases. Uh energy costs come down. That obviously is a direct impact on the economic picture here. The economic backdrop, despite everything, is not yet being felt in the real economy. You know you, know the fallout from the Middle East. Um it may well do later this year as as people start turning on the heating and so on, but it's not yet being felt in the real economy and the government's talking a lot about cost of living. The government feels that it's sort of in crisis mode, and as we know, Keir Starmer is never as good as he is when his back's against the wall. Um, so you've got a fighting prime minister, you've got events, uh, goodness knows what could else could change domestically. Then potentially you have a different you have a different outcome. You have a prime minister who, if he could get through the next few months, pro probably much of it by luck, by chance, then the backdrop changes and maybe then there is a route through for him. Now I have to say, I think the probability of this happening is very, very low, but I think do still think it's a probability. And as we know, we said countless times, you shouldn't uh you shouldn't rule out anything happening in British politics these days. Even the most unexpected outcome of all, which is the status quo remaining in place. Who knows? Might just happen. Um let's just wrap it up. I think we've got one more email here from Linda on a slightly different topic, but one that keeps coming back and has come up again this we week. As were mentioning earlier in the episode, uh there has been a clip doing the rounds of us talking to Andy Burnham at last year's Labour conference about his thoughts about rejoining the EU, where streeting has been talking about maybe we could rejoin at some point in the future. Linda has emailed to say, Hi Pippa and Kieran, is it possible to rejoin the EU? What are your thoughts on this? We are worse off now, she says . Um, well, maybe is it possible to rejoin the EU? And I would just say actually it's a good question because when I have been writing stories about, you know, where streeting saying let's rejoin the EU or Andy Burnham in the past saying let's rejoin the EU. I always write it as Westreating has called for the UK to try and re rejoin the EU because there is absolutely no guarantee that the EU would have us back. In fact, as our colleague Jennifer Rankin was reporting last week, there are people who have negotiated round after round of UK negotiations over the last few years who say that we would not get back on anything like the terms we used to have. And Jennifer also reported on Saturday, and do check this story out because I think it's absolutely fascinating, that this government actually has pitched to try and create a single market in goods with the EU. So that would be a fair ly major shift towards integration with the EU, but was rebuffed. Yeah. And it looks like that desire from this government to take the biggest step towards you know joint relations with the EU in several years is not going anywhere. Yeah. What do you think? I mean, it is this something we should be talking about or is it just a pipe dream? No, I think it's absolutely fascinating. And I think at at the so the starting point of all of this, of course, is um Labour's manifesto pledges in 202 4 not to rejoin the European Union, the single market or the customs union, this side of or in this parliamentary term. But as we've since discovered, and as Jennifer's story is a brilliant example of this, the government wants to kind of get everything but, you know, everything shy of in terms of closer alignment. Because of course, especially on good s, it would be better for trading, it's sort of less impact on businesses, and it would be a boost to the economy. We've talked many times about the the impact the Brexit's had on the British economy. The problem is that Brussels is not a sort of a nimble negotiating bloc and represents all the countries within the European Union. So everything has to get signed off by leaders. And there is lots of opposition to giving Britain any sort of bespoke deal that maybe some of the more populist Eurosceptic parties on elsewhere in Europe might capitalize on and you know try and use with domestically to potentially even to pull out of the EU at some point. So they don't want to set a precedent, even though there are some bespoke arrangements, for example, with Switzerland that have been talked about . But the but crucially, and I think again, Jennifer, coming back to Jennifer's story, what she writes that is that when the when the EU rebuffed Britain's suggestion to join a single market for goods, they instead suggested that Britain could join a customs union or economic alignment through the European Economic area. But the problem with joining the EEA, which is basically a single market of um authority, mostly EU, though not exclusively countries, would also mean accepting free movement of people. That of course is a labour red line. You know, come back to Makerfield, you mentioned migration and how the crucial uh an issue that's going to be there in the by election. Um the gut the government just can't, it feels, make that case this side of an election. What's going to be fascinating, however , especially if um Andy Burnham or indeed Wes Streeting ends up in power, but even potentially Keir Starmer is what it might put in its manifesto next time round. And whether finally, in order to have that closer relationship with the European Union, the government accepts that there has to be some sort of agreement on freedom of movement. They would presumably make the argument that they could argue for a break on free movement, but of course in reality that would be very hard to nego tiate. Um so uh while this is all being thrashed out now, I think we'll only get so far as long as the government sticks to its red lines. I see nothing to suggest that it wouldn't stick to its red lines for the next two or three years, but watch the future. Yeah, absolutely. And we will get some sense of that in probably July, which is when we are expecting the UK EU summit, at which we will find out what has been agreed in terms of a youth mobility scheme and various other bits of uh reintegration that the Prime Minister has been planning. Thank you all for your questions. We received so many great ones and are always happy to chat about them, so please do keep them coming. Especially thank you to Tiger who I know has emailed more than once. So please do keep your questions coming. Well, that's all from us. Thank you for listening. If you haven't already, please like and follow Politics Weekly UK to make sure you keep getting our episodes in your feed. And if you enjoyed the podcast, then why not leave us a review? Keep your emails coming, as we said, the email address is politicsweeklyuk at thegardian.com. That's politicsweeklyuk at thegardian.com. This episode was produced by Frankie Toby, music was by Axel Kakutier, and the executive producer is Maseb Tej . Bye-bye. This is The Guardian.