Dynamics of the Makerfield By-election

This is the Guardian . Chase is the digital bank that gives your savings a boost anytime , anywhere. Even in the middle of the night. You bet. You could earn 4.5% AER variable, including a 2.25% AER fixed boost for 12 months. Right now with Chase, you could be boosting your way to our dream home. Exactly. Search Chase Boosted Saver. 18 plus UK residents available to new Chase current account customers for their first thirty one days, four point four one percent gross, interest paid monthly eligibility and term supply. It's possible we're about to have the seventh Prime Minister in ten years. A serious country can't do that to itself. We're all talking about politics when the key thing is to talk about policy . Over my political journey, I've become more and more worried about the gap between people and politics. It's inevitable that Keir has to go. I think he's lost the support of much of his cabinet, lost the support of much of the parliamentary party. And as we saw a fortnight ago, he's certainly lost the support of the country. It is beneficial for the person if there is going to be a new person coming in, that there is a a contest and a debate about ideas. There's a battle going on for the Solar Labour Party from leadership jostling within and from without as former Prime Minister Tony Blair attacks the vision of the party he used to lead. I'm Peter Walker and this is Politics Weekly for The Guardian . And for a special treat this week, I'm joined by Luke Trill, the UK Director of the Polling and Focus grouping organization more in common. Hello Luke, nice to see you. Great to be with you. It's nice quiet time, even though it's a recess. I know, and it never seems to stop at the moment, does it? Um it was funny. I remember the focus groups in the run up to the last general election, people just saying we're so looking forward to it all calming down afterwards and uh I now really feel for those poor people. As I do for people like us who have to uh live this every day. Yes, when Keir Starmer said he'd make politics boring, he didn't. There's been other criticisms of Keir Starmer this week. Um I'm assuming you read all five thousand seven hundred words of Tony Blair's criticism of basically everything to do with the Labour Party that's not done by him. Um what what what was your thoughts about it? I mean, as someone who understands politics a lot, can you explain them what the radical centre means? I mean, uh a lot of the radical centre seem to be things which Tony Blair liked and agreed with in uh uh in that particular uh essay. But I think, you know, I think what he was trying to do was to advocate for a sort of return to that style of I guess it was two thousands, early 2010s politics where Labour and Conservatives broadly shared the same sort of free market settlement , um, with you know some state intervention where you needed it. Um, but rather than you know earlier in the essay he attacks incrementalism and so rather than w wanting to appear incremental, he he posits it as this kind of radical centrism. Um whether it is that or a sort of back to the future, I'm not so sure. And the thing that struck me the most was this one of the specific policy uh elements where he said that Labour should have got into power and to reassure business people should have basically dropped half of what was in their manifesto. So should have dropped all the workers' rights stuff, dropped lots of other elements, and and and basically said, you know, we're gonna reassure business, that's all we're gonna do. From a political point of view, I mean obviously Labour MPs might be a bit miffed by that, but what would voters think if a party got into power and suddenly said all this stuff we promise in a manifesto we've decided we don't need to do it? It seems to me so um divergent from political reality to suggest that you could do that. Bear in mind we have a crisis of trust, right, at the moment. One of my favourite poll questions is Would you trust Kia Starmer, Kemi Badenok, or Nigel Farage to watch your bag when you go to the loo. Uh and fewer and fewer than one in five would trust uh any of them. Who who who comes out on on top in that? Uh I actually can't remember. I actually think when we did ask it might have been Keostarmer, but it was under like one in five for all of them. So it was very low, you know, people utely uh particularly just beyond that, I mean that th that's a slightly trivial question, but I think it gets to how most people think of their uh politics body , the idea that Labour could run on this manifesto could come in after the great breaches of trust that people experienced under the Conservatives and just go, you know what? No, sorry. You know, th the public didn't even buy the black hole argument. Yeah. That we've come in and found a bigger black hole. So the idea that you could go even bigger and do something more, it means just for the birds. And and the other thing which I think, you know, that we're we're in we seem to be stuck in this from a political strategy point of view, this those sort of endless debate about should Labour turn right, should Labour turn left, da da da da the glue actually which unites both wings of the party is their agenda around workers' rights on the minimum wage actually thinks around uh net zero. So so the idea that you could junk, you know, the only thing which is holding this, you know, as we've seen, a fairly disparate um coalition together, I I think is for the birds. Where I think he perhaps has more of a point, and where you could have landed something with public opinion, is around this wasn't in the manifesto, obviously, so it wouldn't be uh breaking a pledge, was around employers' NICs . And actually, I do think the employers' NICs rise. That comes up a lot in folks who people worried about layoffs around small businesses. You know, I've argued for a long time, that Labour's main mistake when it came to the public was not saying before the election, look, these Jeremy Hunt's employees' nit cuts are unaffordable. We will reverse them. That suddenly gets you a lot of money. It means you don't have to do this tinkering where you have to go after farmers or pensioners or small businesses, and you could do something different. So I think that is a different argument. But you know, things like the workers, renters, or that rights agenda is about the only thing that we can get people to say positive things about this government on oh that no that and Iran and standing up to Donald Trump the other thing which uh Blair seems to advocate not doing. Yes. And I mean obviously um Tony Blair's big kind of thesis is that there's no point having a leadership challenge or even changing leader if there's not a fundamental debate on what the policy is at the same time. Do you get the sense that with all the kind of manoeuvring by, you know, Andy Burnham we're streeting Angela Rayn, eter cetera. Do do you get a sense of a big policy debate going on with it or is it all still just about the personalities? Well it's interesting, isn't it? Because uh their audience at the moment as well is quite squarely the Labour membership. So, you know, we're streeting who is supposed to be the sort of more Blair ite candidate, actually immediately um writing for The Guardian, um, comes out and says, you know, there's a fundamental error in uh in Blair's analysis uh around inequality and doubling down on free markets. You know, Andy Burnham basically says something very similar uh in response. And I think this is one of the challenges when your audience is a selectorate who are different from the public as a whole. I do think you know, again, you know, there's stuff that I think Blair gets wrong in terms of landing some of the public. I do think one of the challenges for Keir Starmer has been that the public genuinely don't know what he's about. They don't know what the sort of grand thesis and plan is . And you know, and that means that when you get the U-turns, well people go, Well, yeah, of course, because he didn't know what he was doing to start with. He's got no agenda. You know, it's why in the word cloud about Kiya Starmer weak he's right up there Damning stuff. Uh in in the middle. And I think, you know, uh I I think you can deal with criticism more if you're seen to have a plan. So if there's yeah, one of the bits of advice I think the leadership candidates should take from a public opinion perspective is sell a plan to the public. You know, tell them where you want to go and how you'll get there. And to go back to the polling element uh of it, if we work on the assumption that it's going to be one or several from Andy Burnham, Angela Raynor or Wes Streeting, who do compete for leadership. How how popular are they? And is there a sense of voters know who they are and what they want to do? So we've to take them uh in turn, I mean there is a clear winner in the popularity contest, and that is Andy Burnham. Yeah, when we do uh hypothetical polling uh of Andy Burnham as Labour leader, he you know turns a Labour deficit. They're behind reform, he actually moves them to three points ahead. Now that's hypothetical, has lots of limitations. Remember your party hypothetically polling ten percent. They're not uh anymore. But but you know, he hasn't he's also the only major politician we test who has a positive net approval. I think it's only around two or three, uh plus two or three, but you know, everyone else is underwater. So he's clearly got something uh there. And you know, particularly when we speak to people in the north of England, not just Greater Manchester, beyond it, as a sense he is different. With Streeting, um, you know, when you look at the polling, doesn't seem to make much of a difference. I think the challenge for him is he is just more unknown, though prior to his resignation , he was the only cabinet minister where more than twenty percent of the public had a positive view. Now again, it's pretty low bar, but you know, he he cleared uh that bar. So and you did get people in focus groups talking about what he'd done in the NHS, uh, which I thought was interesting. It wasn't that it was all sorted, but they we perhaps moved away, you know, you will remember that the stories you would get in the winter of twenty twenty three. Really bad. Uh you you've sort of moved away uh from that. Angela Rayner, I do think the big challenge that remains the tax stuff, even though, you know, uh HMRC Oh that's interesting, so that really cut through, did it? It it did and it hurt her in a way that I you know I used to run focus groups with Angela Rayner and again you've got sort of similar to Burnham perhaps even more so like she's different you know people go after her 'cause she's working class she, gets it. And I think that meant that when the tech stuff happened, it she almost had further to fall. And we've had people in focus groups going, I really liked her, and then she got there and she was all the same. So it's much less the sort of sometimes things which obsesses Westminster about how serious is she, that kind of thing, you know, the you know vaping, drinking, you probably basically don't care uh about any of that. But the the tax stuff. And so were she to run I, think she would need a more compelling story about that or more compelling response than she's had to date. Um and to switch to the news of the day, um basically as we're talking or quite soon afterwards, we're gonna have Alan Milburn , the former Blair-Era cabinet minister, is going to be launching the first part of this big investigation he's done into young people who , in the Westminster phrase, are NEETs, not in employment education or training. And I've I've I read the report uh under embargo uh yesterday it's quite long it's 217 pages and it's really interesting about all the kind of reasons as to why this is but this is a big problem of people aged 16 to 24 , there's about a million who are currently basically in employment or educational training terms, not doing anything. And there's all sorts of reasons for it. But what struck me was that even only a few years ago, the UK was at kind of roughly the EU average for this, and now we're one of the very, very worst. Presumably, this is something that people will notice in their everyday lives, because even if it's not one of their own kids who's basically stuck at home, not sure what to do, presumably it helps generate a sense of drift in a country that doesn't know where it's going. Yeah, absolutely that. You know, this is an area of which I have in a past life uh some experience of when I was a special advisor of the Department for Education, we were absolutely obsessed with the neat numbers. Because the thing with with becoming neat is that if you don't get into a job and get into an employment quickly, it then makes it much less likely that you will at the rest of your life. You know, that start really matters. And when we talk to people, young people who need there's real concern actually, I think it's become starting to become, you know, along with failure to tackle channel crossings, along with things like uh waiting lists, uh it's becoming one of those sort of almost signals of broken Britain for lots of people. This that a whole generation of young people just isn't able or isn't able to get into work and isn't being sportive and and there are two elements to that. You get on one side, you know, this view of well am I a mug for doing the right thing? You know, that I go you go though, you know, I go out to work, I work hard and yeah, other people don't. And, you know, for some people that's a sign of the broken social contra ct. On the other side, you know, and people often hold both of these views in tandem, this strong view of we're not doing enough to support these young people. And actually, we've just done some work with the Joseph Roundtree Foundation, which actually found that despite some of the caricatures of public opinion on benefits, when you present it as short-term benefit restrictions versus long-term investment in the causes of joblessness and supporting people into work. Many more people, in fact twice as many, go for the investment in the long term. And again they're like, why aren't politicians doing this? And because it's so widespread , and this is always a killer in public opinion, is when everyone has a personal story of it. And now pretty much everyone, because of the scale, knows a young person who is neat, who this a you know doesn't come out of their room, is stuck at home, is miserable, isn't getting into the job market. That makes it even more compelling. It's not an abstract political debate. And all this kind of stuff builds in, as you say, this sense of a country not working of problems that the main parties cannot tackle. Um, and obviously, we've seen, you know, this is the most amazing polling situation, I'm sure, that you've ever seen, that we've had this atomization of politics in terms of where loyalties are. We've had recently, um, in certain terms of uh England five parties within almost ten percentage points of each other. In terms of the rise of outsiders, insurgent, almost populist parties, like reform and the greens how much of this is down to people thinking well we tried the other people and you know this stuff isn't working we're gonna roll the dice yeah I think it's uh it it's really good point in fact just before joining you, I was uh writing something about what I call the Netflixification of politics, which is you know, this idea that you know in the past we had four TV channels, maybe five. Some people were habitual switches, but most of us, you'd watch your channel if you really didn't like it, you'd move over. Same with politics, right? In the past, you had your big um, you know, three, sometimes a fourth would emerge on the thing. Some people would switch a lot, most wouldn't, and now, just like you can go on Netflix and find viewing that you absolutely matches your taste, you can do the same with your political preferences. And so I think it's a combination of three things. I think the biggest driver is exactly as you say. It is just a sense that look, we've given these guys so many shots, and yet at least since 2008, nothing's got any better. Uh, the social contract is broken, it isn't working for me. And what what what really struck me in the run-up to the local elec tions was how common that sense of the social contract being broken was amongst quite different groups. So I remember chatting to you know a pensioner in Sunderland who said, you know, I've worked hard. I thought I'd be heading towards an easy retirement. I'm now really worried about stuff. I'm still working. And you know, in her case, she said it was because of benefits and because of migration. She was voting reform. Literally a day later, I spoke to a dentist in Tottenham who said, young dentist, who was like I'm still living like a student. I've literally done everything I was supposed to do, gone to unique, gone into a public service job, I've got this student debt I can't pay off, I can't get on the housing ladder. I'm voting green. And so you know, you you've got the got these two people, very different worldview. And in the case of the green voter, he blamed billionaires and the the Uber Rich. You know, blaming different people, but just this sense it's not working. So that's a big driver. As you say, then it leads to this. It's not. I think the big mistake some political analysts make is thinking that reform the Greens are you know, people love them, and some do, there's some true belief, but there's a bigger group of people who are just like, do you know what? Let's give it a try. Let's roll the dice. And actually, I think Blair alludes to that as in his essay. And then the third factor, and I suspect we're going to come on to this, is that the barriers to entry are much lower for new political parties. So you've got a public mood which wants to move against me. The barriers to entry are much lower. And that means that if you're a figure like Rupert Lowe, with your one point three million, I think, Facebook followers. This is Rupert Lowe, who is the leader of Restore Britain, which is basically Britain's first in decades uh mainstream openly far right party. Yeah, I mean it's a party the uh mainstream remigration uh party which we haven't yes uh see much closer to some of the far right parties you see on the continent and does not have you know whatever people you know there are clearly elements of reforms, policy that people find distasteful, problematic, go too far. You know, Farage has a series of red lines that Rupert Lowe clearly goes beyond. But again, I think part of that is A, he's able to he there are these low barriers to entry, he's able to reach people directly through particularly Facebook. Uh but also it's that sense of, oh, I can get exactly what I want. You know, reform too many compromises for me. And if you're part of that, our work suggests there's about uh it's around six percent of the population that basically don't adhere to or don't support traditional democratic norms. Uh, you know, there's a group who are more comfortable using violence during the the asylum uh protests have ethno-nationalist views, there is then a party for them as well. And so, you know, you've got these really interesting dynamics there. And of course, for reform, they will think, you know, do I you know uh uh you know, if they lose in Makerfield because rif the difference between Labour vote and reforms vote is the restore vote, I think it will trigger all sorts of internal angst of do we pander to these you know more extreme views because we need them back in the 10. But at the same time we risk losing the what I call reform second fifteen they've got since the general election who are much more moderate, much more risk averse, much more female, um, I should say, uh as well, who for them the biggest barrier is reform being too extreme. So it's sort of weird. In a space of years, reform is now facing the same dilemma the Tories have fac ed uh or that Labour have faced uh albeit with uh against a newer political party which is different in that it doesn't adhere to those traditional norms, guardrails and um calling out of prejudice. And I want to very quickly mention one thing connected, I think, which might explain why reform and greens do quite well, which I always describe as a lucral unifying theory of how politics works, which is your idea that politicians who look like they actually enjoy themsel ves do better. And Nigel Farage and Zach Polanski, certainly unlike say Keir Starmer, look like they sometimes have fun. This is, I think, is you know, the after I heard this theory, I thought it makes a lot of things make sense. People enjoy politicians who look like they're actually not it's not a chore for them. Exactly that, right? I think uh I think there's something in the British psyche that sort of, you know, really resists these politicians who looked slightly pained by their job, you know, particularly sort of, you know, what you might call latter stage May, you know, Sunak, uh, Starmer, Brown even, uh, at the time. And yet politicians Rachel Reeves has got a bit of that as well. Rachel Reeves has got a bit of that. But interestingly, when we polled on Rachel Reeves pushing back against that Heckler, very popular because it displayed a bit of, you know, she was she was into the fight. The the comparison that I'd make there is with Kemi Badenock, right? W whoho, you know, Conservative Party's still in big trouble, but her personal ratings have gone back up. And you know, certainly from the focus groups, a big part of that is people say, Oh, yeah, she's up for the fight now. She seems to enjoy, you know, had one uh I won't use the language the woman in the focus group used because it wouldn't appropriate, but you know, she said, you know, she so fiercely doesn't give a blank. I love that about her. You know, and it's just like, you know, there is something about that. People want politicians who are enjoying the job that they uh and that they can almost bring you with them into that enthusiasm. Yeah, Boris Johnson is another example. Tony Blair um was another, you know, the sort of cool Britannia era as well to close where we started. And yes, people have said a lot of things about Kir Kirstama, but they've never said he doesn't give a beep because he doesn't seem that right. Right, we're going to pause here for a minute. After the break, and I apologise in advance We're back and I'm joined uh once again by more in commons Luke Trill. Um Luke, the maker field by election is you know, everyone keeps on describing it as the most consequential by election for years, and that strikes me as the case. But um I was up there to see an Andy Burnham speech last week. And you know, obviously I'd done a bit of reading about the area, but but it it's's you know this idea of this reform friendly gritty northern area is actually quite mixed. You know bits of it are quite plush, it's quite rural. I mean it's outside Wigan but it's not like Wigan, is it? No, it's not. And actually, it is easy to because it's, you know, was a place that voted quite heavily for leave, that reform did very well uh in the general election. I think it was their thirteenth best second place in uh the country that it that it falls into this sort of left behind stereotype. And look, there are no doubt there are wards in the constituency which are very deprived. I think the interesting thing about Makerfield is it it has some quite deprived wards. It's got you know Ashton in Makerfield itself , which I think does fall into that category of somewhere with a sort of high street which has struggled and it has felt a bit down in its look. But then you know some of the wards, particularly in the sort of west of the constituency, much more affluent as well. So you really do have this kind of more diverse mix. I think what makes it more prime reform territory is actually less on that kind of affluence measure on the demographic s. It is it is very white. Uh it is older than average. I hope that's one of the things to say about it. Um you know less degree uh educated than average again, you know, reform tend to perform better with non-graduates. So so it's that element which I think gives reform its base in the constituency rather than the idea that the you know maker field is an entirely sort of down-on-its luck uh constituency. And an area like that, if you can stereotype, what kind of things are voters most interested in? Is it immigration, cost of living? I mean does does Brexit still come up at all? So cost of living is the number one issue uh in uh Makefield when I was looking at our uh MRP, I mean it is, you know, in line with the rest of the country, you know, real concern and this sense that you know, it's why actually I think you know, the Chancellor's intervention on little treats, I think, you know, a lot of people in the sort of commentary mocked it, but actually it kind of goes to what a lot of people uh are frustrated with at the moment, this sense all the fun things in life are now unaffordable. So cost of living is one immigration is very definitely an issue again in our um MRP, which in fact is a sneak preview for listeners of uh the the podcast. We we've just done today mapping out constituencies with the highest level of immigration concern and maker field is up there, right? It is one uh where immigration uh is an issue and particularly you know small boats uh and channel crossings there as well. Is Brexit an issue? No. I can't remember the last time someone in a leave voting seat brought up Brexit as a big you know as in you know I always I start focus groups with uh what are your big issues at the moment? And it just doesn't come up. It's very low salients. Uh, and actually, again, when we model , if there were to be a rerun of the referendum, looks like Makerfield would probably vote narrowly to remain, actually. You know, I mean, such a now, that doesn't mean that would actually happen in a campaign, things would shift and I think the bigger risk on Brexit is always about it's it's nothing to do with Europe. It's what was Brexit about? You know, d does putting Romaine back on the table make you think oh we've not learnt any of the lessons of Brexit, which were there's you know a great number of people in this country who feel very unhappy with the economic and social settlement. So I think that's the issue, but I am not surprised that Andy Burnham very quickly said that, you know, whilst he might tweak the Mahmood reforms, that the sort of spirit and essence of them he would support. And um one of the things that interests me is that Robert Kenyon, the plumber who is the Reform UK candidate there, who also stood for them in 2024, is getting a lot more scrutiny of his prolific online posting. One of the things that amused me was that it seems he might have actually not voted Brexit. But there's been a lot of newspap er articles about things he've said which have been some slightly scurrilous, some cosing up to far-right figures, praising Donald Trump, being vaguely sexist, being kind of skeptical of COVID and vaccines and things like that. It's worth noting that both Kenyon and Reform UK point out that these were comments from before he entered the politics world, and they basically say it just shows he's an ordinary person, not a professional politician. Does stuff like that actually affect anyone or is it just a way to fill you know newspaper and website space? So I don't think it's the biggest driver. Um uh you know I think again it's those big issues and I think , you know I literally, you know, I this contest I genuinely think is a battle of Burnham's personal vote versus the reform pool of the of the seat. Where I think it makes a difference again is with you know, and I meet them very often that kind of wavering reform voter who thinks, Oh, is this gonna be a bit too much? You know, is this gonna be a bit too far? And I remember in another greater Manchester seat, I think it was Haywood in Middleton, uh chatting to some uh to a woman who kind of summed it up for me when she said, You know, I'm really scared I'm gonna end up voting for reform 'cause I feel I have to and then it all goes wrong. Or you know, another in fact interestingly, someone else who said to me, um, yeah, it's like, yeah, I really want to vote reform but then I i this was during the time of the IC stuff in Minneapolis, Minnesota . And she's like, I'm really worried it ends up like that. And I just think that there is a there is certainly a group of people who this stuff it it gives you it might not stop you voting reform, but it gives you pause for thought. And I think reform's big challenge in the run- toup the election, the next general election, lever side maker field is how can we reduce those pause for thought moments? And I think the the Robert Kenyon stuff plays into that. I think there's a risk the other way though, like if I were Andy Burnham, I would basically ignore it. I would let others do it. Which I think he has done largely. Yeah, he has he has. Because you know, there is another issue that you're seen as you know this this phrase which has crept into the English vernacular which I don't think we've ever used before of locker room banter. We don't have locker rooms in the UK. We don't have locker rooms. That's what I mean, but if you look like you're being dismissive or disparaging, that is a risk. Yes. And one of the things that interested me this week was the Greens have finally made up their mind and said they're not gonna throw the kitchen sink campaigning wise um in makerfield, which to an extent makes sense. It's not really the sort of seat they're likely to win. But it is looking like then it's gonna focus voters' minds on it being very much a reform versus Labour race. How much, if at all, do you think the other parties could affect it? I mean would some people on the left who are just really, really angry with Labour vote green anyway, will that make a difference? And restore Britain if, we mentioned earlier, could that sway it the other way? This is why I think this race beyond the Labour reform fight, and I do think it's hugely consequential just, you know, for that alone. But let's say Andy Burnham wins and also in doing so squeezes the Green vote. Well, he's basically slain the two dragons facing Labour at the moment, not just reform, but the Greens as well, and shown he can bring disillusioned progressives back into the fold. If, on the other hand, that green vote proves unsqueezable, to use the technical term, I think it shows that Labour has a much bigger structural weakness. And no, you know, I speak to some voters who are like, no, I'm I'm gonna vote green, I don't care. Um if that means you know others get in. On the right, I mean I am uh absolutely fascinated to see how restore do because I have been, you know , entirely, you know, conflicted about this in the sense that, you know, from everything they seem quite online when my uh fellow uh polsters at jail partners do a Rupert Low name recognition, you know, still pretty low actually, despite his big platform certainly compared to Farage . Versus I now do increasing numbers of focus groups of people on the right, so they're reform voters, where at least one person will say, Oh, I really like Rupert Lowe and I wish I wish it were him. And if restores vote proves unsqueasable the other way, that would have just profound consequences for reform strategy more widely. So so I do think that those smaller parties um there are going to play an outsized role. And we will learn, as I say, not just about what the Labour reform fight looks like, but a lot of what the two Yeah, and they are the the uh two big parties at the moment with apologies to the Conservatives, even though they're just behind Labour and national polls, but you know, the government and biggest uh opposition party, we'll learn a lot about what the contours of the race looks like for them going forward. And then one final Meckerfield thought, what happens if Andy Burnham doesn't win? I've I've put this idea to a few Labour MPs and they just generally look a bit pale and don't quite know. I mean i is it basically game over if he if he doesn't win? I I mean I certainly look. I mean a lot changes in you know in just a few years. I certainly find it very hard uh to see how Keir Star mer leads the Labour Party into a success ful general election. And and and I think, you know, the thing is for Randy Burnham in Makerfield, when we've been running focus groups, I think one of the challenges for people is, you know, in every f yeah, people have been split on Burnham, but pretty much almost down to a person they've been anti Kiostarma. And the challenge for people is it's a really difficult in terms of voter psychology message to go your best chance of getting rid of Kiostarma is to vote Labour . Like in it and people no when I've spoken to but they really it it just it's just not politics as usual. Right. And Andy Burnham has been really helped by that. But if reform beat Labour's most popular politician