The Impact of the Smoking Ban

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Try for free today at odoo. com OdWo. com Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day What policy changes should investors be watching Listen to Washington Wise, an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab to hear the stories making news in Washington right now Host Mike Townsend, Charel Schwab's Maging director for Legislative and Regulatory Affairs, takes a non partisan look at the stories that matter most to investors including policy initiatives for retirement savings, taxes and trade, inflation concerns, the Federal Reserve, and how regulatory developments can affect companies, sectors, and even the entire market and his guests offer their perspective on how policy changes could affect what you do with your portfolio Download the latest episode and follow at schwab. com slash Washington Yise or wherever you listen Those of you who've been listening to Radical for a while will know that one of our great interests on this show is social mobility. That basic sense that it just feels instinctively wrong that if you're born into a poor family, your chances of really fulfilling yourself in life are significantly lower than if you're born into a rich family basic sense of injustice that you shouldn't be held back. your destination shouldn't be held back or determined by your origins is something I think most people can relate to. And one person who's trying to do something about it is coming on this podcast and we would love to get your questions for her. She is Sophie Pendnder. She is the founder of the ninety three percent Club And that is a network that's challenging one of Britain's most entrenched advantages, which is private schools. We know that roughly seven percent of people go to private schools and ninety three percent or so of people in this country go to state schools. She is state educated herself. She founded the ninety three percent cllub at the age of nineteen after spotting that elite careers often run on social contact, social capital, if you like as much as talent And what began as a student society is now a really big nationwide movement. It's connecting her to thousands of state school students around the country. It's connecting them with professional mentors, employers, and each other. You might think of Sophie as pretty radical because she's not asking to be let into exclusive rooms, but instead is building ones herself I'd love to get your questions for. Sophie Penda, please do send in your questions by emailing radical at bbc d. co d. u or you can whatsapp us a voice note on zero three three zero one two three nine four eight z. That's going be a good one Hello, it's Emole here. Welcome to Radical. These are, as I think you may know by now, conversations about the local national global trends changing our world. and offering a safe space some pretty radical ideas for the future. This week, my guest is Ashine He is one of Britain's best known publicans. He's the former landlord of some of the country's most celebrated pubs. he's now better known as the co founder of the Devonshire in Soho, and since opening in twenty twenty three, the Devonshire has been much lauded by critics, constantly overflowing with customers and very difficult to book for lunch or dinner But this conversation is not about one successful pub. It's kind of about the opposite. It's about whet the Britain is allowing one of its great social institutions to disappear The pubs have been part of our history for hundreds of years. They have shaped our national identity, our literature, our sport, our music, our communities They're one of the few places left where people of different ages, backgrounds, politics and professions might still find themselves in the same room. And if you're getting the sense from this that I am a fan of the pub, you are absolutely right. I love pubs. I think they're incredibly precious social institutions, but they are closing fast. Did you know Two pubs are closing every single day in this country. and if it's a big if, if they kept closing at the current rate, they would all be gone by twenty fifty the disappearance of British pubs would constitute a pretty radical change to the way we live our lives. Why is this happening? What could be done? Or perhaps we should be asking whether anything should be done at all, whether these historic institutions are indeed outdated should be left in the past. Well, Ashine is trying to prove that a good pub can still be a serious answer to modern problems, whether they're cultural, social, or commercial doesn't simply want to preserve the pub like some sort of pickled onion behind the bar. He thinks the best pubs are not museum pieces or some ancient part of our inheritance, not just businesses selling alcohol They are social infrastructure, living, noisy, commercially viable spaces where people can eat, drink, talk, argue, celebrate, and belong He has got some radical ideas to keep them going Before we keep going, a quick reminder if you subscribe to Radical on PC Sounds, you won't miss future episodes, including your Radical Qestions, our episode that is driven by you, which is released every Monday, and where we put your radical questQestions to our brilliant guests Can we save the Great British pub? Is it worth saving if we do try to save it What is it that we're trying to save Ono this week's episode then, with Arhine Rogers Isn't this so nice? I have joined in the studio, the radical studio with I don't say an unlikely guess, but it'sort sort a cult figure, a hero figure, a radical figure with a pretty radical idea. It's Ohine Rogers. can I say one of Britain's most successful Rublicans? Well, I think that's unfair on the other thousands and thousands of publicans who are incredibly successful and brilliant, but I do appreciate it. Thank you. I'm good morning. You're an Irishman machine, is that right? I certainly am. Yeah. I've got to just establish for the very few of our listeners who've not been to one of your great pubs over the years, how a boy from Sligo came to be such a brilliant publican in Britain? Who is Ahine Rogers? Well, I was born in Sligo but very shortly after that moved to Dublin, educated in Dublin, ended up going to University colloege, Dublin getting sort of thrown because I didn't like lectures and exams. I like pubs too much. I became a barman when I was eighteen. What did you study? I studied engineering actually, Mchanical engineering with with a specialization in agricultural engineering. Were they right to check you out?? Well, they did me a favour because I didn't realize what my calling was going to be and it gradually dawned on me the more time is spent behind the bar What was the moment when a young As Shehe Rogers who would go on to work in many different pubs as we' going to discuss thought actually this what I want to do in my life was there a moment or did you just sort of I think I gradually slipped into it to be honest with you. I went for a weekend in nineteen ninety to to London. I got the I got the ferry over and hitchhike down to London ran out of money on Saturday night, so I decided to get a part time bar job on the Sunday and ended up staying So Since thenve I've been working all across London in the pubs and I had my first name over the door. It was called then when you got your first pbe in about nineteen ninety one, ninety two. So in thirty five years. Yeah. thirty five years of running pubs Let's talk a sort of broad generalities first. How has the industry very, very broadly speaking changed in the time in which you've done it? We'll get into some of the underlying current and tres at the moment, but sort of Compared to thirty five years ago, turning up in London off the ferry getting a bar job You know, could one still do that today At least so yeah, I think so. I think people who really want to work in our industry can find great jobs still U I think we're We're great at employing people who don't have high skill sets and we're able to train them to be really excellent at the job. I think it's always been an underrated profession And I think I'd love that to change because it's a world where you can have brilliant human experiences every day greatreat interactions with people and we're in the storytelling business and we're also in the happiness business. If you look at it from that point of view, it can be one of the most fulfilling jobs you could possibly want to do. those jobs are still out there for young people and for everyone else. I want to outline in a second the scale of the challenges facing a lot of pubs and it's interesting you mention you worked a lot in London because I think outside London, the problem is much more acute. Can we just spend a moment I kind of want to hear from you. puubbies becausecause a pub It serves so many different functions And I think you could map some of the problems that we have today, which we've talked about a lot in this podcast whether it's economic problems at a national level or kind of social problems at a much more local level onto the declineer pub What to you is the point and the purpose and the kind of nobility of a pub I think pubes should be sacred. I think they're part of us as, you know, the people who live on these islands I think they create a space of leveling. And I also think they create a space of of democracy and of being able to just wander in. and I think They're so beautiful at managing a kind of chaos. that you don't get in restaurants. And I think they're underrated and I think in some cases, they're very underappreciated But they're so much part of our culture, our heritage and they're a timeless institution and I think they should be protected for that. You sdly remind me of I once asked the former director General of the BBC Mark Thompson what the case for the BBC and the license fee was. And he said, it would be good in a society as a starting point if there were certain places where everyone could walk in and be treated equally Isn't that a great thing to say, and isn't that exactly what a pub is? The Dustman and the Duke, the prrince and the pauber, you walk into whether it's your pub or any of the other thousands, there is this kind of levelling effect because the price of a pint is the same regardless. Exactly, and you don't know who you're going be shoulder to shoulder with. you can walk into a pub and be beside a high court judge or a CEO or equally the guy who sweeps the street outside who's probably even more interesting. Exactly. And we have an incredible uniquee history in this country. If you think about this famous story' like, you know, when there's a pub called the Eagle in Cambridge when Krick and Watson discovered DNA or the double helic structure, they walked in there and they kind of celebrated it. There's the amount of time that Tolkien spent as it happens in Oxford talking about with I think with CS. Lewis about plots for places that would go on to be called Narnia, or indeed where the Lord of the Rings was set And there is this kind of incredible sense in which pubs have kind of been weaved through our history, architecture. Meetings, political movements. You can't really understand Britain going back several hundred years without understanding the role that pubs played in sparking relationships and conversations and movements. I think that's completely true and I see that every day, not in just in the pub that I run, but also the ones that I visit, where people you know after a pint become animated and they open up and they can have honest, decent conversations without being overheard or recorded and they can discuss their future, their past and what they're doing. And that's a timeless brilliance and I can't think of many other places where that can happen If you compare it, for example, to a restaurant, you are going to sit with the people you've booked with and you're not necessarily going to speak to anyone else. Whereas when you're in a pub, shoulder to shoulder, you don't know who you're going to meet, you don't know what discussion you're going to have, you're also not sure how long you're going to stay. So there's a brilliant uncertainty about going to the pubs that I think is lacking in an awful lot of other interactions Why then are they struggling? I mean, the numbers are totally, totally nuts. And I've got a big thing about I want people listening to this podcast to always be able to sort of take away Really astonishing facts. in twenty twenty four And's obviously there's going to be a complicated number of answers to this question, which we're going to interrogate. In twenty twenty four, the British Beer and Pub Association said two hundred and eighty nine pubs closed across England and Wales. That's around six a week, six a week withith more than four thousand five hundred job losses attached, the huge Yeah, for four thousand five hundred people, A, losing your job is a scarring, painful experience. B, there is just this profound sense of like what are these people going to do if they've got particular skills that are going to waste In twenty twenty five The BBPA, that's the British Beer and Pub Association, warned Britain was on course to lose a pub every day. And in the first quarter of twenty twenty six, one hundred and sixty one pubs hundred and sixty one in the first quarter this year, close in Great Britain, roughly two a day. That's up six percent year on year. These are tootally astonishing figures. just to really spell it out. what is happening It's not the case that necessarily by twenty fifty all pubs will be gone because there'll be some that continue to be successful But we are talking about the accelerating disappearance of something that's been integral to our history ll get into the detail, but in broad terms, what do you think's going on? Well, I think there's a couple of reasons. I think The burden of tax, which has been discussed already, I know on the Redical podcast. Things are VT business rates. VAT business rates, national insurance, corporation tax rates. they've all grown. plus added that are the impacts of costs, the cost of our beer, the cost of our food, the cost of electricity, gas, rent, everything seems to be against us. And at the same time there's no appetite for our guests to be paying more. So we're getting squeezed. and I think those who would have been viable five years ago are finding themselves veering towards unviable and those who are doing really well are finding themselves viable So I think that pressure really needs to be eased for the future of the business to be to be fair and square against our competitors. So that's a sort of commercial thing and I'm going to dive into that. There's also, do you feel there's also a sort cultural undercurrent, which is drinking less, drinking at home. and the kind of, I mean sur slightly loading this question because I'm slightly obsessed with it. the kind of atomization of society. We've got al lone in this epidemic, lots of people scrolling alone on their smartphones, but kind of just a decline in the feeling that a kind of a good thing to do on a Thursday night is to head down to the local I hope you're wrong about that because I do find myself going out not just in London but outside London. I was recently at the top fifty Gastro Pub Awards in which there's a hundred pubs and everybody should have a look at the list to find out where their nearest one is. They're all amazing places run by brilliant operators and I've visited loads of them and I find myself in there surrounded by people having a great time Being full of drinkers and happiness is not necessarily a measure of viability at the moment because of the outside influences. And I think that is the critical thing and I wish the government would hurry up and do something about that. Right I want to dive into this in actually as much detail as you're comfortable with because I think there's a lot of people who don't necessarily understand When you go through that long list VAT rates, employer NI wages, inflation. What you're talking about To the extent you're comfortable, can you just give us sort for a typical pub, say you're pub in as it happens on the outskirts of London, suburban What are you paying weekly on know rates? what are business rates? What are you paying on VAT? and how is it changing? and how does that affect your margin? too the extent you're comfortable with, I went some detail on what has actually happened on the finance of the pubs What I will say is that the numbers are excruciating and really, really high. are I think the one that is the most contentious is VT at twenty percent And if that on itself was to be eased, I think If the government was to lose that to the treasury, they gain it in employment and they gain it in sales and they gain it in happiness of people and they gain it in sustainability of business and they would gain it in so many different ways that I think it's an absolute no brainer and I can't understand why it hasn't happened yet. When when people win I want to draw this down When people are paying six pounds, how much is going to the pub and how much is going to the government? I think it's a very variable question, it depends on how busy the pub is, it depends on where the pub is and there there's a kind of attack on pubs that are in good areas because the The rates are way higher And there's all kinds of different margins going in there, but I do know some people who are operating at two percent and that is completely unsustainable. And people in those positions are hoping that it will change quickly. Otherwise we're just going to lose those businesses. What difference would it make to If VAT was significantly cut, say from twenty to ten I think there'd be an overnight change in in whole attitude to it because people be able to invest in paying their stuff more.'d be able to invest in painting the outside and fixing the toilets and making the place better. it would take the pressure off And I think it would make a big difference to the business. The first thing this government sort in the first budget that Rachel Reeves had, she said, we've got a big fiscal black hole, We've got to find a way to fund it. And one of the ways in which this government, which we should say, we're speaking shortly after Kistama resigned as Prime Minister, Rachel Reeves basically raised over twenty billion pounds by increasing em employer National insurance. you' got pubs that have got a margin of what's a two percent Basically just the employer national insurance change itself completely wipe out that two percent. Absolutely. And that did happen to a lot of people And bear in mind that that national insurance figure is related to the number of hours the person works and how much you pay them. it's commensurate to that. Right So so that affects everything. So that means you go from making some money and businesses need to make money so you can go you know feed your family and do things like that. You go from making money to going into a net loss because that one particularly change. So there's VAT has gone up, there's business rates have gone up. ploy national insurance that has gone up. there's also the minimum wage. and the minimum wage is an interesting.e feel kind of I'm It's becomes sort of an interesting political thing because people feel that if you argue against the minimum wage, you' basically saying you believe people should be poor. not necessarily the case. Interestingly, Rishi Sunak who' writing a column in the Sunday Times, wrote this piece recently saying that he got the minimum wage wrong. He was very conscious that there is a multi millionaire chancellor. he didn't want to be seen to be arguing against a high minimum wage But he thinks that it's now very, very clear. that the rise in the minimum wage is having an effect, particularly on the employment of young people And if you didn't have such a big rise in the minimum wage, more young people would have jobs. And we're talking at a time when one point, whatever million young people are not in education employment or training What kind of effect, more broadly speaking, whet it's your pub, what kind of effect is the rising minimum wage having on the capacity pubs to employ people. I think it's just it's just another It's just another pressure on businesses, on costs. But for me, it's the one that I'm least worried about because I love to pay people as much as we can. Exactly. And you like the idea that people that come to you are going to get good wage and they're going to kind of feel I think when people are paid well, they're happier and we're in the happiness business And you know, when the guests can feel that happiness, they feel happy too. So I always try and pay people as much as we possibly can. Okay, so these are all pressures that sort as it were centrially you know, come from sort of government decisions What about just inflation I mean, you use a lot of energy You get a lot of food and you have to buy an awful lot of beer.king we're talking a lot at the moment about the price of oil because of what's going on in the Straight of Horm moons How is the price of just beer that you have to pay, let alone punz have to pay. How has that changed in recent years and what affects it? I can tell you that the percentage it goes up increases every year. You know, we've just taken a five point five percent increase from one of our biggest suppliers We have to we have to look at the at the variables on each side and you know, and make a decision. And sometimes it's really hard and we don't know which one to make We stick with the decision we make. You know, certainly, if we hold prices We hope that we'll either maintain or increase footfall And if we put prices up, we hope that footfall doesn't drop so much. And that's the equation we have to look at at any stage. But we've been very reticent to increase prices. And we think price is more is more sensitive than it ever has been. And that's why we keep a pint on it four hundred ninety five so that it is accessible and you can come in. And that's why we keep that twenty nine quit three course menu for the same reason so that people can get come in Be sated and have a nice time without feeling that they've overspent or had a shock when they get the bill But you need large numbers of people do. You really do for it to be economical because your margins are people twenty nine pounds for three courses it might seem a lot, especially outside of London. It's really not within London You're not making a huge amount of money in that, are you? That'smost do you is that almost a way of getting people in? I have a really weird way of looking at this and I love being in the happiness business and I love people being able to tell stories. You didn't do this becausecause you wanted to be a billionaire. I mean you did itolutely not. I becausecause I love it. I do ' we really love it. But I know that when people walk out that door and they have a really good story to tell then we're going to have footfall. And that's it. that's the secret to what we do. What's a formula? What's the forula? What have you done? What have you cracked that I was having? We'll get into the Londonness of this before and I'm not sayingestly honestly I think pubs are far more important than pints and Scotch eggs. I think pubs are a cultural institutions where people come in And then they have some time and they have value for that time in the place. And when they leave, they feel better and they go out with a story to tell. It's not like other retailers where when you go into, you know, the Levi store, you go into Tesco or you go to Hamilies. You go in, you browse, you buy your thing, you put it in a bag and the value for what you've had is inside the bag When you leave the restaurant or the pub You don't have anything tangible. You don't have a bag. What you've got is up here and down here. We like to think that that's a great value. And when you get that right and people do exactly what you just did there and tell the story of What happened to you then that's our marketing and people keep coming back. And that's the secret of pubs you think if you're really honest, that there are some pubs that are disappearing because they do and you say this is a great champion of pubs obviously, but some pubs that are disappearing because frankly they're not able to give people the value for time that they need I think that's completely true And you know, pubs don't close if they're viable. when they become unviable It's a sad thing that happens But there's another element there as well, which is which I think we should look at, which is the fact that Lots of these great old pubs are in fantastic heritage buildings in wonderful locations So you've always got the vultures looking around at these almost vibible pubs thinking That would make a great McDonalds or that would make a great supermarket or that we could convert that into six flats or we could do turn that into a corporate headquarters And I think That's something which is unfair. because While it might be viable Its value commercially Pbe is way less than its valuue commercially as an industrial unit or apartments or change of use and that might be something that could be tackled by the government to golden brick those famous places, those places that are centre of the community and make sure that doesn't happen because it happens a lot Sounds like we're on the verge of hearing a radical idea Why do you say that the commercial value would of say a beautiful, know great two listed place in a beautiful town in the middle of the midlands Why What are you saying about its commercial value? that it would have greater commercial value if it wasn't a pub And therefore we've got a lot of pressure on the publicans to sell up Well, notcessarily the publican but the free holder of the building. Yes, of course becausecause say, for example, you have a viable pub that makes two hundred thousand pounds a year profit In some cases, the value of that business would be five times that amount So if it was an office? No, just to sell it as it is as social whichich gives it its value as a pub as a million pounds. Right, right, right. So can you imagine that's on the corner of your favorite street in Oxford? And it's a beautiful Victorian building with four floors and accommodation above and it's in a premium spot. Anybody can look at that and go I'm pretty sure I can get five million pounds for that or three million pounds or whatever the number is. And that puts un fair stress on its viability as a pub Do you see what I mean? Oh interesting. What could you do about that Because you're saying Golden you said a moment, the government could golden brick it. What can you do to protect that heritage? Well, you know, the listing them is one thing that can be done and there's lots of pubs that are listed, which stops them from being viable as others. But I don't know what the government could do to change that, but I'm certain there are ways. There's another thing called making a business an asset of community value, which I think I'm sure you've heard of villages which are going to lose their pubs, they can apply for it to have a particular stasis as an asset of community value, which means it has to stay as a pub. But the process for that to happen is convoluted, complicated and involves a lot of support from the community for that to happen. I think that should happen a lot easier. And when you're running a pub you don'tcessarily have a huge amount in your hands. You certainly don'. You've al got so much paperwork It's last thing you want to be doing. Wh you work seven days a week, anti social hours and all the rest of it. It's so interesting what you said a moment ago about whether or not some pubs which U and you say I should be clear as' a great Champion pubs. Sometimes which aren't viable will inevitably fall by the wayside. I just want to read you something that James May, former guest editor of todayoday Pgrame, former presented, top gear and so on and so forth said to LBC a few weeks ago. So he's a pub owner. He's a fan of the Today program and he said, and I quote I, I and James May, get very conflicted about all the save the pub stuff that goes on. The honest truth is, if things need protecting, they're not doing themselves any favours. Pubs are not actually institutions, they're not historical monuments or any of that stuff. They are essentially businesses first and foremost. But beyond that places that have to work. pub will be saved by the pub, notothing else It'll be nice if we could have lower rates and lower duties and so on, but that's not really the issue. The issue is the quality of pubs themselves. That was James May. Would you go along with that? I love James and I mostly agree with him, but I would disagree and say that most of the pubs that I love and that I go to are institutions, they are important to me and they're equally important to those who feel like they are part of them And you know, if you're a regular in a pub of which most pubs have dozens, if not hundreds. maybe thousands of regulars, then all of those regulars have a kind of a funny memorable ownership of that And I think that needs to be celebrated. and that should give it some heart. and something that's not commercially measurable and something that should give it value outside of just being a commercial business. Is your sense that it's easier to make a pub viable in London or a big city compared to the country pub. U, you know, it changes. I remember after the pandemic, everybody said that that you know, big cities would be hollowed out in the middle and there'd be a dut around the edge where everybody would be working from home so residential and pubs in areas of high chimney pots would do way better and the town centers would know annihilated And weirdly the opposite seems to have happened. I can see Central London pubs doing very well. I can see Central Manchester pubs doing very well. Birmingham Central pubs are doing very, very well. And I do think you know the good ones in residential areas are flying too, but I think it's the smaller ones in the residential areas and the ones in the countryside that that tend to be the most challenging. Although there's always brilliant diamonds in the rooough as well and I'll go back to My friends at the Ratn in Anak, which is in the middle of nowhere and it's packed all the time. It's it's up in Hexham, just just outside Durham brilliant, brilliant place. It's one of those ones in the top fifty Costroom Post friend ofine. The Parker's arms up in the Rbble Valley. You literally it takes four hours to get there from here And every time I go up there I see somebody I know is come from London you know so it is possible to to bring people down. You got you got the one down in Seaalter as well, the sportsman. You know, once again, beautiful location, really hard to get to, but because it's great people will go there and great pubs will always attract people So as you know, we do this Q and A episode, which goes out on Monday. It's called Y Radical Questions We punt for contributions from our listeners and we got one that was so good and so informed and so detailed that they actually wanted to bring it forward into this conversation. It's from Dr. Lauren Lek. She's a quantitative data scientist at the University of Reading and she has been looking into what causes clures and she logged every pub closure from two thousand nine to twenty twenty two. And having done all that work She sent us this question. Have a listen to this I've been modeln what predicts pub closures across Britain, and you've got famously strong instincts about why pubs live or die But the strongest signals in my model were almost all things a landlord can't control, such as the location and not the offer So my question is How much of the pub's fate is really in your hands and how much is already decided by where it sits? Lauren, wow, that is deep. What a fantastic question. That's a really quest. Thats Okay. Lauren is basically saying the strongest signals in her model about looking into how you predict whether or not a pub is going to close. there were almost always things a landlord can't control, such as the location and not the offer. So Laurn's question is how much of a pub's fate is really in your hands and how much is already decided by where it sits? I think Lauren probably right. I think that when when a pub is on the edge of viability, There's not much a great landlord would be able to do if he or she were to take it over. However, on the flip side, I think when is viable then there's an awful lot that a landlord can do to make it better And that's all from my point of view about making sure that People have a good time and they talk about it and they come back. It's all about footfall. So If Lauren's right that the fate of a pub to some degree is decided by where it sits, just to spell it out, what is a bad place to sit? Where do you not want to be? Is it based in the middle of nowhere? Usually? Yes, because pubs that do survive in the middle of nowhere do it because they have reputation and they've been there a long time and they've got great value and they become destinations worth going to I think when that stops to turn that around is very very difficult I would love to see Lawrence Data though. I think this is a very, very interesting study. Well, Ehine, we have O the best researchers and producers in the business and they tell me in this brief who Lauren is. So Lauren is doctor Lauren Leeeke, quantitative data scientist at the University of Reading, who logged every pub closure. this is so interesting. logged every pub closure from two thousand nine to twenty twenty two. And during that period, Britain went from having fifty four thousand pubs to forty thousand and she worked this out by number crunching the number of closed businesses on companies's house with a SIC code, which is pubs and bars, SIC code five six three and two. This is a great brief. She's looked at the UK Business reggister data to model the survival risk of every pub in Britain. And she disagrees the decline is because people stop going. The Bigger culprits for her are policy, taxes on beer, The twenty seventeen business rates evaluation, COVID. We haven't even talked about COVIDus, COVD huge things and the twenty twenty two energy crisis. and her conclusion is that pubs don't die because of what's inside them because of what's outside of them Lauren thinks that London's success, quote unquote when it comes to pubs is an illusion. it's more to do with ownership than anything a landlord has done. In London, the land that pubs sit on is valuable, so if someone closes it, it can be easily turned into a bar or taped Burnley, for instance, the land isn't worth nearly as much. so it makes more sense to sell up and turn into flats. Dr. Lauren Lee, that's one of the best contributions to a radical episode I've ever come across. And Luren also mentions the twenty two Eergy crisis, which obviously had a huge devastating inflation impact but COVID. What did COVID do for Britain's pubs? Well, it was a huge shock. I think it was it was veryery, very difficult The government actually under R Baris Johnson and Rashi Sonak really helped us with the for a low and the COVID loans. I think some pub companies came out a lot weaker, some came out a lot stronger. I think there was a a reckoning. But I like to think it's in the past now because it was that traumatic for us. I've put it behind us and and And happily so I really hope you're enjoying this conversation with Ashine Rogers. Please don't forget to subscribe to this podcast on BC Sounds where you won't miss future episodes, if you do subscribe. makeake sure you've got your push notifications turned on That way you will get an alert whenever we publish a new episode to Ashine Rogers. Can you do anything And should you try to do anything? or how do you respond to the fact that Younger people, the evidence shows are drinking less Drink Aware reported in october twenty five, the proportion of UK drinkers choosing no and low alcohol drinks to moderate consumption had risen from eighteen percent in twenty eighteen to thirty one percent in twenty twenty five, with half of young adults choosing no or low alcohol options. Alcohol changed U cases, twenty six percent of sixteen to twenty four year olds reported not drinking alcohol in previous twelve months I mean, mean they really are drinking. That's up from nineteen percent twenty eleven. I mean there is There is a cultural move amongst young people towards drinking less. And I have to say, I remember a few years ago when zero percent beer was kind of taken off. Oh, this is This is mad. Yeah. Whatould you be beer without beer? I mean I was like, this is absolute bonkers. I I always think of Dragons den test where you'd go in and say, guys, I've got this great idea. It's going be called whatever the brand name is. and it's going to beer but it's going be zero percent. I thought the dragons would turn around and go what are you talking about? And yeah, it seems to be kicking off. It seems to be working Yeah How should pubs respond to that Well, I think we sell really good quality, zero and low alcohol beers and you know, give it as an option But you know, I think anecdotally going out, yes, of course, young people are drinking less But I also think that when they do drink, they're drinking more carefully and they're choosing where to dec in a discernion. Yeahah, and they will decide where they're going. and it's not It's not quite as spontaneous. They'll think about going to a really great place and spending a great night out with their friends. And I still see you know eighteen, ninety, twenty twenty three year olds, twenty five year olds going out and having a brilliant time with their friends and and really enjoying the pub. And I think that's really, really great I hope that the decline in actual consumption is what they're drinking at home and what they're drinking more casually. And you know, I think that the pub has still got great future and people still come and have a couple of pints and you know, I think people are moving away from strong spirits when they come to the pub We're seeing the number of pointints really increase. We don't sell any shots at all. And you know, obviously wine consumption is really, really solid. But you know, anecdotally looking around the pubs, I think there's still loads of young people who are really, really enjoying the idea of it, the culture of it and the experience of being in a wonderful place. I know it must vary enormously by pub, including by location and the rest of it, but broadly speaking, do pubs make best margins on boode or food. I mean I mean is that just very according to the pub in Norm? It does. and to be honest with you, there's probably not a huge amount of difference. If you've got a really successful In other words, you don't se much food at all The great advantage is that you've got lower staff costs because you don't have to have the chefs. But of course the percentage margin for food can be higher or can be lower. It depends on the location. And it also depends on how much people are paying for their stock. So it's a complicated question But I'll always go back to Successful pubs are the ones that are full of people And another interesting thing about pgs is that busy popes tend get busier And pubs that are quiet tend to get quieter. So you can almost feel it if it's on the slide. And you know, if you' go into a pub that's quiet, you're much less likely to go back than if you go into one that's vibrant and busy busy and of happiness and life and you feel that energy of being in in a communal place with other three dimensional people and it's a complete difference to being in a dimensional world, which is where a lot of people are spending their time. Okay, I'm going to ask you for the sort of business advice that were you not a very kind, generous guest or radical, but charging someone, you could really charge a huge amount of money for this. Let's do this anyway. free business advice. G on. hypothetical radical listener I'm going to call her Sheila And Sheila is, I don't know forty two. She's worked in PR for a few years, notot really feeling very satisfied about it. Sheila lives in a suburban town. It's a commut town. it's in Surrey. Pretty busy, notot a village, pretty busy, commute town lots people run it to Lond Sheila spots, there's a pub people b And Sheila's thinking, it' a big gamble. I hear pubs are closing very fast, but you know what? I gre up going to pubs. I love pubs and I'd love to you know, this' is a passion project mind. By the way, that's how the huge number of people get into pubs. They think there's a passion project mind. And Sheila's husband Mark is a bit like, oh, I'm not so sure, but if you want I to work longer hours at the old recruitment firm But if you want to do this, my sweet, go for it What does she need to think about? She needs to first of all think about whether or not how big a factor food is She's thinking about how to keep her cost low What does she need to do T begin with to make sure she's got a pub absolutely. She needs to make sure that she's going to be there at least six days a week for the next year and a half. Herself. Herself. She needs to make sure that she's able to surround herself with people who really believe what she's going to believe who are going work alongside her. She needs to make sure that she has enough investment to make sure that the environment within and outside the pub feels comfortable safe clean welcome, well looked after. So we're talking tenensities. you've got to spend tens of thousands of pounds doing up this pub to make sures you you would come in there and its, you know, it looks classy. It's got to feel It's got to look and feel Cred for and it's got to look and feel that it's a wonderful space that you want to see the inside of Basically what she needs to do is to create a world that everybody wants to see the inside of. because otherwise you just look like everybody else She's got to think about who she hires One thing that she's got to think of maybe, which you wouldn't have had to in the nineteen nineties, but you've now, if I may say, become something of a master of is social content It's amazing. Ashine Rogers is this sort of is this kind of giant of Instagram, right? You know this Come on comeome on. You you've got a pretty hot social social media game and you do interviews, you do lots of clips, you have one of you have, I don't know if you've got a team, you have peoplealking into the demonstration And how exciting is it that if you've got a business these days and it's a bricks and mortar business, which a pub necessarily is, you can use social media to create a buzz. I don' I just say this because I don't want to get in trouble for people saying I'm being too nice, but there's a very particular thing, which is that Devonshire, you've got very, very world famous Guinness and you get people who are on TikTok and elsewhere coming from around the world to taste your Guinness, which is a particular thing. That's all Ill say about it important is it for Sheila or anyone who runs a pub is listing to this or believes in pubs to try and create Let's just use the word viral moments around the produce that they sell I really think that you shouldn't think about that at all Really think what you need to think about. Th thinkink about it, D. I don't really, to be honest with you, Amel, what we think about is being good in the first place we focus everything on the on making the simple things look super simple making the consistency amazing. You mentioned that product in the glass. We were absolutely besotted and fastidious about every pint, looking the same, tasting the same, being the right temperature We're the same with the lagers. We're the same with the wine. we're the same with the sparkling wine. We're the same with the steak, we're the same with the steak knife. We're the same with the wine glass. We're the same with how we present the cooking over the coals. We're the same about the way every table is presented. And we know that if we get the details really right peopleeople will photograph it and that will go out. We don't actually do that at all What we do, if you think about what we do at the Devoner, we don't actually post very much at all. We repost what other people post, but they'll only post that if we got it right in the first place. So what we do is we concentrate on getting it right in the first place. That' So interesting. And that is a very useful corrective to what I said. But she also needs to think how people should feel when they're in that space becausecause we're in the sensations business, we need to think about what people see, what they smell, what they taste what they hear and how the place feels when you touch it because that's where we get all our inputs from. Well and that's our only outputs come from our inputs. and we must think about those sensations. Well when you think funny mentioned Smell, when you go back to a slightly younger Ashine coming over from Slago to to on the ferry No, no, no. where you go back thirty five years and I think it were about the pubs that you would have landed in in London in the early nineties They smelled different and they smelled different because people smoked. Yeah. and I'd be really interested in your analysis of whether or not the smoking ban was this because I remember the debate around Pus is going to kill the pubs What has the smoking ban done to pubs and has it been a net loss of damage? I think from the point of view of working within the industry at the time It was an earthquake. It was a huge. It did have a magaz. Oh, it was a huge change. So many things changed because as you say, They were completely full of smoke and they stank upntil then, although we liked the smell Yeah. They stank. You go there and you come out and you stink sm sm My clothes smelled of cigarette smoke for twenty five years and afterwards that kind of disappeared and weirdly I think they felt cleaner, they felt safer. peopleeople were much more confident to be able to eat there. That's when the gastropub thing really started to rise. I think we were much more confident to be able to do really good quality food and charge a little bit more for it I think the whole atmosphere inside pubs improved. I think we got a you are diverse customer base because people who didn't smoke obviously younger people, women, pregnant people were able to come and really, really enjoy it. And I think it's been great in the long run. It was very tough in the short term because we lost a lot of customers because they refused to come because they could smoke at home and get their cans from TEesco and that was a short term shock those of us who' had a Those in the business including some of the big pub companies at the time who had vision to invest in food and invest in the environment and paint them different colors and put better quality you know soft furnishings in that didn't stink anymore It really gave the place an impetus. That's so interesting. That's a classic. I mean, we think about this I don't want to make this about UK politics, but you think a lot about the trade offs between short term pain and long term gain. Yeah. You know there's quite a lot of the hardest things that you got to do in this country would involve really annoying some people in the short term and they're being a shock. And you know, the graph of the kind of you know, the commercial outputort are dipping very badly and going violently into the red before it sort of comes back. Smoking Ban is a very good example of that because as you say, short term, A lot of people are very upset about it, but long term, you know twenty years on or have many years on it is you're happy with the smoking ban and you wouldn't reverse and say people should be allow to smoke ban. No, wouldn't I wouldn't. Although I do fondly remember you know, people been able to light up and have a chat at the bar and the smoke going over and back. And you know when when you' in a foreign country like like in Austria or you're in Switzerland late at night and they'll let the smoke and come in. you have this this sort of lovely sort of timeless memory of what it used to be, but it is really a memory. and I think sometimes our memories are tinged with positivity that weren't necessarily there. Story of my life, boss. What about the drinking age? Rutf has just whispered to me and it's a great privilege of doing this job that you have clever people tell you things That in Germany you can drink wine and beer, I think within that sort of environment from the age of sixteen. Yeah. that's something we should look at in this country? I mean I don't really think that it's a driver. I think it will be transformational. You know, if you bring your sixteen year old to a restaurant in the UK, you can still buy them beer or Parry or cider. Right. So as long as they're accompanied and you purchase it but, you know, I can't see that Being a massive upside, I don't think children under eighteen should be allowed to drink unsupervised in public spaces for their safety. and I think in general, licensing on children and safety of children in pubs is pretty strong and I would support it. I had this really remarkable experience way back when I was yeah, probably fifteen, eighteen years ago, I was working in the newspapers Someone said to me, I really want to come and meet this couple who' taken over a pub in South London. It was in Camberell And they basically a friend of mine who was a kind of the bridge was basically trying to get a bit of coverage for the challenges back then that people who take over pubs from pub companies face But the basic complaint back then was that a huge number of Britain's pubs are run by pub companies. and what they do is they get you in. I'm glad you're smiling because I don't know enough about this They get you in by kind of offering pretty low prices entice you in because maybe Sheila and Mark and other people have got this great dream of running a pub And then they operate something called the tie, which is that because of the relationship commercially you have with the pub company, they control the price of beer and they control your rent and they jack it up and eventually go out of business really quite quickly. How much of a problem It are pub companies in this country in terms of the future of pubs and is the t what is the tie? is it unfair I think the tie can be unfair. What is the tie? What am I even talking? So some pub companies will give you will lease your pub in other words, a tenancy or a lease hold pub a at a rate that looks very commercially exciting. Sheila and Mark are thinking great, let's do this. Well what we need to do for Sheila and Mark is look at the price that they're going to be paying beer because they have to buy it from the same company. That's the deal find you'll find that that figure will be inflated against what they would be able to buy it for on the open market. So Sheila and Mark look at this pub in this place in Surrey where they think this is really exciting. We could do this. They look at the numbers. Mark's going to work even harder and hope to get a promotion. They can make it work. you know, they get it for cheaper than they might otherwise have done But what they need to think about is that the Not Sheila and Mark, but the pub company will decide how much they pay for beer. Yeah. and therefore, Sheila and Mark in the first few years are not going to be making any money on their beer. That's not necessarily completely true. They will make money on their beer, but they need to look at the footfall, they need to look at how much they're going to be selling and then they need to look at how much food they're going to be selling So for example, if Sheila and Mark are going to be turning into a restaurant where the average spend is forty five pounds ahead and most people are drinking wine then what they're paying for beer becomes a little bit less important If they're only going to be selling Sotch eggs and they wanted to be full of people drinking after work then they need to look at the fact that their percentage margin on the entire business dropping down might be a bit lower. So what you need to do is plan for what you think it's going to look like, how much you're going to be selling on food, how much wine you're going to be selling, how much spirits you're going to be selling, much beer you're going to be sell? Work out what the cost of all those things are and then you'll have an idea how much will drop down And from that, you've got to pay all your wages, your rates, your taxes, your insurances and then all your power and gas and all the other stuff. And you'll find how small the little bit gets at the end. And usually Sheila and Mark u will will run a mile when you actually get to this end of the scale That's the thing. Yeah, is that if Sheila might put all the costs in And they put their kind of price in, they'll end up finding that it's very, very hard to make money as lots of people are clearly finding. Do pub companies get a bad rep Hm tie and for kind of selling people false promises M I think I think there might be an argument to say that's true, but I don't think saying that pub companies are necessarily bad is something We should be saying Because would say they would say they enter into a commercial agreement with They tell people that they want them to be flourishing. And what's good for the landlords and the tenants is good for the pub companies, right I think they have a point, but also you can't put them all in the same basket either. If you look, for example at Weerspoons who who buy places that weren't pubs before. They turn them into great commercial businesses. They're a great social hub and you know they do what they do. They don't lease pubs to people and charge them silly money. There's lots of pub cs in London that don't do that And you know, there's there's a few there's a few that you could single out, but I'm not here for that. And also it's not the actual story of what's going on. There are places where that's happening, unfortunately to people But but most most people are on their att least some kind of level playing field. Yeah I've had some of the happiest times in my life pubs, I've met people in pubs, I've deepen the connections with other people that make life worth living in pubs But I also think there's a very particular current problem, which is actually one of the main things we've talked about on this podcast in previous episodes which is that we We are living through all of the evidence suggests, something like a crisis of social capital. Yeah. something like a kind of You know, the institutions not of central government or of the family, but the intermediate institutions, the social institutions, the neighbourhood, the little platoons They're disppearing And those places and spaces where people come together from sports clubs to trade unions, to voluntary associations to the church and mosque and synagogue temple. where people come together and they just relate to people in their neighborhoods They're disapparing at an extraordinary rate. And one of the reasons the evidence would suggest for that is because of technology, a lot of people are just on their screens a whole time If we're going to save them, if the new Chancellor, whoever she or he may be were to take a phone call from. if they were going to call you and say, Ashine, youve become something of a champion in of the British pub, you've done really well We heard you on that really amazing podcast with that really gorgeous host. Tell us a couple of things that we could do tomorrow to save the British pub. What would you say I would say that They lowered VAT down to as low as it could possibly be You get an instant impetus into the businesses to reinvest. Why would that work? If they say why? we've got to find billions in this.'ve got loads of people giving us grief. I've got this charity here, I've got that lobby group there' why should I do that? Why would l VAT make such an incident? Because it would do so much for so many communities across the UK. it would stimulate employment, it would stimulate training It would stimulate all of that money would go back into investing in the pub. So the local painter decorator window cleaner, they would be in there cleaning tidy and making it better. I think it would make people feel better and I think pubs themselves would instantly have an uplift. And they would say okay, I should you like your idea about VetT? There's not much we can do about inflation, mate. There's not much we can do about the cost of energy or the cost of food, which you know, Donald Trump and his people decide to start a war alongside Israel in Iran, and that means the price of oil goes up, There's not much else we can do about that What else can we do? So lower in VAT, is there anything else that you would like to see happen to try and from a eteral government point view to try and save the British pub I think they should look at the amount of tax we pay in other places as well, especially the national insurance contribution. Did that have a really big effect? Yeah, it was you know, it was I can't say exactly for us how much it was, but I know for bigger businesses, was it was enough to be a serious hit And if they did all that and it meant that they slowed the kind of decline of the pub Just reminds us why you think a pub Why pub is worth saving Well, you know, they've been part of the British cultural landscape for thousands of years They don't really work outside of these islands, you know, Ireland, England, Scotland, Wales. You got a Well because they're culturally embedded and part of where we are and they've got this timeless heritage You know, I'd say they're the most unradical thing we have. You know, and you know, that's why I've been on the radical podcast about pgs is difficult because I think They need to be der radicalized if anything, you know, because you think about, for example How Britain's portrayed on TV. What do you mean by that d radicalised? What you mean? I think they should be more normalised. I think going to the pub should be a thing that everybody should do and can be afforded to do too go and meet your mates in the pub or people you don't know and just wander in. I think people should think about doing that more often because it's wonderful and I love it and it's part of my life and you know I'm a massive advocate for it I think people are forgetting about it But I was going to say about the representation of Britain And you think about any of the big dramas or even the soaps you think about E standards. you think about Coronation Street, you think about Dammerdale or anything. When you when you've got, you know, sort of these familial soap uperas and you want to bring people together They always create the pub atmosphere so that that impingement can take place place. So you know, you've got the Queen Vic in East Anders that goes back for, I don't know, is it forty years It it's always been there and it's always a staple, but it's never really celebrated and it's always been part of the background noise. And that's what pubs are and they're so important for that And they're sort of so timeless and they've never been hypey and they're never about you know you know spike and disappear. They're always sort of there steadily in the background. And I think that's the wonder of them. and the best ones are like that. And I think we really need to protect that best ones What's so interesting about what you've said over the course of this conversation, which I've enjoyed so much, even though we didn't have a glass or something in front of us Mostly done radical sober, I think is a good way to do it is that the best ones will survive What I find so interesting, if I may say about what you're say, not only is the urgency and the passion with which you talk about, but the reality where you say some pubs will disappear. And there is a kind of not Darwinian, but there is a kind of market discipline where like James May, you would say that actually in order to and grow the great tradition and stop the decline of the Great British pub You've got to be honest about the fact that some aren't doing their job well enough and that even as you try and get some to flourish, others that aren't serving the needs of a community and aren't commercially viable are just going to disappear and that's just the kind of the way of the world, right I'm afraid so I'm afraid so and you know, I've been close and connected to British pubs, London pubs in particular for over thirty five years. And I think it's true to say that You know, when you bring a load of publicans together, it doesn't matter what year you bring them together Nobody ever goes Try K, we've smashed it this year We've really, really made it this year. It's always felt a bit like a struggle It's always been a situation where people look at it as a vocation and they make the best of it and they really enjoy it as much as they can, but it does feel like it's always a slight struggle. And you know, when you get these extra pressures that we've had in the last few years, it's not ideal However, at the same time, I love meeting my colleagues who are doing well. and you know you go to these conferences and round tables and the awards things and you meet so many incredibly happy Fantastic, hard working brilliant people and it's a wonderful community to be in. and I just wish we could bring more people in to have a great time with us. And they do it because they love it. being being this being the BBC It's very important in a spirit of absolute accuracy and fairness. A I don't know notothing you're saying is anti government, you're asking for a bit help making pubs survive. I just want to put you what governmentays because they would say A few things. I just want to what you think about them So Peter Carl, who I think at the time of recording this is the business secretary, who knows where he'll be in a in a future Andy Burnham led government if Andy Burnham does become Prime minis ed about a business sector says UK's pub sector is famous around the world, loved by locals. I'm proud of the significant contribution it makes to economic growth and social life. And while I know many are facing challenges, we have the right economic plan to put more money in people's pockets to spend in pubs and that governments say That's why we're cutting this year's business rates bills by fifteen percent followed by a two year freeze, extending worldld cuut opening hours and increasing the hospitality support fund to ten million pounds to help venues grow. and this comes on top of capping corporation tax, tough action on late payments, cutting alcohol duty on draft pints and six cuts in interest rates. benefiting businesses in every part of Britain haveave those things I mean, did they be fair to the govern? They would say, those are specific things they've done, they've heard you out. Are those things going to make a difference? I think each individual thing will make a tiny difference, but when you weigh them against at the margin the headwinds they're only a small margin. I will comment on the on the letting us open late. you know, some of us don't want our staff to have to work you know, extra long long hours into the night and for some pubs it's not necessary. It is I'm sure welcome for some, but You know, some of us don't even have TV's because we like to have a chat. What sort of hours do you work U so the pub opens every day at eleven and we stop serving at eleven at night as well I tend to be in Tally eight, eight in the morning. I Always have a nap in the afternoon? Do you? I do every day. Oh my goodness, I have done for years andew Ye. you've got a reputation, if I may say, having for being a very adored boss, but also a ferocious work ethic You work six, six days a week at least Sometimes seven. I try to pretend I work five, but's more it's more six, yeah. And you have a nap in And do do you have the nap at the pub? No, I have a little flat just around the corner from the pub and I never take meetings after two hundred thirty And I'm always back to work at four thirty or four forty five. How' do you successfully nap? Do you put a little one of those things on your eyes and just? Honestly, I'm all I've I've been doing it forever. I can't learn. I can literally sit down, close my eyes and be sleep in four minutes and I only sleep for forty Or maybe fifty if I'm very tired And I'll automaticallyly wake up. I don't set an alarm and I'm straight up and ready to go. I've done it for years and years and years and I think I'm weird, but I get away with it. Little yes. Well you stayed await for all of this, which is an incredible achievement and you're very, very kindly going to stick around. We've got lots and lots of questions, including from some people that are a bit like Sheila and Mark, who've sent in questions for you if you're happy to do our Q and A. The only thing I've got left to do is say thank you very, very much indeed for. Am all, I've really enjoyed it. wished to talk so much about regulation and tax and VAT as much as I did, but I'm glad I did. and thank you for asking and You know, I think Not only our pubs incredibly important But they're also brilliant and they're underrated. And I wish people would use them more and I'm certain they will because there's so many good ones about Ashine Rogers. Thank you so much for being so radical Thanks I' all Machine Rogers is someone who believes very, very, very strongly and he's given thirty five years to this belief really, that pubs are a very essential part of our history and our identity on these islands But he also thinks that they're an answer, a solution, a radical solution to many of the problems of our modern age, probleblems that we've talked about a lot on this podcast, issues like loneliness, like isolation, like the collapse of social capital and the crisis of community, the fact that we need third spaces, places that are not the family home, they're not the workplace, but something in between. And he thinks pubs need more protection from the government, both on tax and in terms of protecting their heritage. He's got that specific idea about so called golden bricks or finding some sort of way and a planning system to recognise the heritage of these buildings. And he wants the government to be radical. He wants the government to cut VAT. He says if you cut VAT from twenty percent to ten percent or even further, that would pay for itself because you get more people working and pubs creating more economic value. He also wants this radical new legislation that m more difficult for pubs to be sold off just because it might be more economically viable to treat them as commercial offices, for instance, rather than as these wonderful pubs. And he argues that we should value pubs in a way that can't be measured in money alone