AI Market Bubbles and Economic Risks

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Book a virtual appointment at joinmidDi. com Midlifees MDi Results may vary, medications prescribed only if clinically appropriate based on a consultation with a clinician Welcome Ray Marr, I fromm Scy Callaay And I'm Jessicaarlv So we're doing a mailbag episode, makeake a short voice recording on your phone and then email it to raging moderates at propertymedia. com againgain, that's raging moderates at propergmedia. com. All right, let's get into it. America's two hundred fiftieth birthday celebration is kicking into high gear, but it's doing so against some lesson celebratory headlines The US economy added just fifty seven thousand jobs in June while inflation continued to outpace wage growth Average hourly earnings were up three point a half percent year on year, well below the current inflation rate of four point two percent The Turnout for the great American State Fair has also been underwhelming. Trump is apparently livid about crowd size at his kickoff event And we've all seen the dismal images on social media this week Looking ahead to the event on the fourth, there's a heat wave with temperatures expected to be over one hundred degrees on the mall and coolers and folding chairs are banned. Here's Trump talking about his appearance on the fourth On july fourth? It's going to be pproximately one hundred and seven degrees out And I'm gonna to go and I'm gonna make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything It's gott toa be a one hundred and seven All right. Charming as ever We were covering this yesterday and I pointed out that he had arrived In North Dakota, I say Teddy Roosevelt Library dedication on his new four hundred million dollars retrofitted Qatari jet. Well, actually, I think it's like eight hundred million once we finished paying for All of the upgrades and the protections for it. So I'm in DC It is indeed very hot. We are going to be shooting outside from the State Fair. and I think it's gonna be one hundred three degrees today, one hundred and four degrees Tomorrow. it's not good conditions. And especially when you think about who might come out to something like this, be older people and That's very dangerous. I mean, they with the HEatT advisories, they're basically saying that like kids and older people and pets should stay inside as much as possible So he does have the weather technically working against him He also has himself working against him and turning this into you know, a freedom two hundred fifty event versus an America two hundred fifty event, which was how it was conceived. that there's this bipartisan commission, right That's going to be running the festivities and things like the State Fair if they were to have it. Now that that's been wiped away, people don't feel the same way about it. and you know, you're asking a lot of to ignore the realities of their everyday life. And this doesn't mean that a president couldn't connect with people at a time of economic crisis. We have seen that through history that it's possible. I'm by it. There is no rallying cry. There's no I feel your pain There's just you're an asshole if you don't like me and I don't see that that many patriots are feeling it. There are also folks who have gone to the state fair and said that it's terrible. So what's the mood like? Like what's the vibe like down there? It's really empty around here. I haven't done that much admittedly yet. I will have more to report on later U but just from looking at traffic, which there is none. what was going on at the airport walking around a little bit in a very pulated area where I'm staying and going to work. there are not as many people as you would have thought. It is a different kind of event, but I think about what it was like getting around in the days even leading up to the inauguration where everybody had poured into DC to be able to see Trump and was going to do it in freezing temperatures That is not the vibe right now So the vibe, at least from the images on television. It feels a little bit like Have you ever been to a recommitment ceremony, Joss Uh no, I'm Mbe like a little Young for it? likeike they'll be coming soon? What age does that start I think it starts around your age. Anyways. I'll get there. So the recommitment ceremonies, the vibe was always like just off like, oh, we're supposed to be celebrating something that's a little weird Recommitment ceremonies mean two things. One, Dad is fucking a secretary and got caught and two. They're going to be divorced within three to five years. But This just feels the vibe is just we're supposed to be celebrating and we're not. And There's just no getting around it Things are better than the perception. And this was true during the Biden administration, and it's true now. If you look If you take the perspective back on the American story, Since nineteen ninety one, so just thirty five years childild poverty is at a historical low of fourteen percent. Violent crime has been cut in half. since nineteen ninety one Despite this, four fifths of Americans consistently tell pollsters The crime is rising So crime's been cut in half and yet everyone thinks it's going up. Crime in New York is at historic lows. We've had the lowest murder rate in history And The safest, most educated American history and convinced ourselves that America iss falling apart And I think it's a couple things. One A lack of trust in our institutions, social media constantly foursing our discourse. O leadership demonstrating poor and poor character whether it's our wealthiest people demonstrating this performative dominant you know, batched weird pathetic form of masculinity. or the emergence of the Epstein class or tech brothers or a general feeling that this extreme wealth is not trickling down to me. And also Your happiness is really, it's not a function of what you have It's a function of the gap between what you have and your expectations. And I think social media has algorithmically normalized the zero one percent life for everybody So let's bring this back to May When I was twenty five, thirty, thirty five, forty. When I went on vacation, I didn't take a lot of vacation, but I went to Club Med once. I was single in my twenties. My mom and I once took a vacation to Niagara Falls or we went to Magic Mountain because we couldn't afford Disneyland So when I went to Club Med And I went to this bad club met in Maazilan, I thought it was fucking amazing. I just thought, o my gosh, beaches and And you could get these things called daquiries. and I just thought it was incredible. And the reason why I thought it was incredible is I had never been to St. Bar's I didn't know about St. Bart's and I wasn't gettingetting images of people I My friends know or people I know know Harting In Saine Bards on You know, Paul Allen's yacht with John Legend playing Every day People are constantly vomited. other people pretend life and that we have basically a crisis of what I'd call wealth cororn shoved in our faces So There are some real problems around an erosion in the middle class. Middle income adults have declined from fifty nine percent to fifty two percent. And I do think that we have to acknowledge that the middle class, despite what the rightite says, is not a self occurring organism. It's an accident, it's incredible, and it needs constant reinvestment Also, we've seen marriage collapse from sixty nine percent to fifty percent. It's a combination of one, young people having fewer venues and young men not leveling up to the extent of their female peers such that they're less attractive and fewer people are Connecting, not finding venues to meet each other Um housing Prices have accelerated college because of incumbents weaponizing scarcity There's also no doubt about it I get paid, you know a lot of money to go speak places It makes for a much more interesting speech to catastrophize. If you were honest about data, what you would say is the following, you'd get in front of a large audience and say, I've done all the analysis and run all the models And here's the net net of the world, or at least the West. Every day, things get just a wee bit better That does not get you invited back for A keynote speech It's, oh, the AI boom is starting to crack, which I think it is. And these are the these are the thirty companies that are going to go bankrupt in the next twelve months This is why AI is going to destroy eighty percent of the jobs, which it's not. I call that apocalypse, no catastrophizing. But there's definitely a delta between how we feel about America and how America in the West is actually doing And I think a lot of it is because our leadership demonstrates such a lack of character because of an unwarranted attack on our institutions and an economic incentive across social media and our thought leadership to basically convince you things are really bad Anyways, I'll stop there U I agree with a lot of that and I think about actually pretty regularly going to see Bill Gates speak with Lyn Manuel Miranda and Melinda French Gates when they were still married. And it was this incredible conversation around good of capitalism. and how capitalism has been the most Positive force in society and he was rattling off all of the things that he's been able to do and all of the impact that he's been able to have across the world, like curing diseases and whatever else he was doing through their foundation because capitalism works so well. and I feel like that reduxed at this particular moment when folks are so down on capitalism. I'm not saying it's perfect It is Arguably the best system that we have I would just say though, that I think what you're talking about ties into This question of patriotism right now. and there have been tons of surveys and it always happens around Independence Day, asking how you feel about your country And there's a big delta between how much America means visa vis people's identities versus how they feel about their nationalism or their patriotism And Republicans, no matter who the president is always have the highest level of self reported patriotism. It's just something that's built into their politics that way or you know, how they're wired. But we now have the lowest share of U. S. adults that say that they're extremely proud to be American. And that's being driven by Democrats and independents. The biggest drop is amongst women and young Americans. And I don't think that that's all Trumpt arrangement syyndrome I really don't. I think What do you think it is Well, I think young people are lookingoo around graduating college saddled with this level of debt, right? All the stuff that you talk about, right? L notes on being a man is about this crisis, right that they can't get out of their parents' basement or they have four roommates. And yeah, social media is messing with them and they're seeing these influencers, like the dangerous ones, like the Andrew Tates of the world, you know, out there living those lives. But generally speaking, I think that Americans are good and decent and they just wantna shot at whatever version of the American dream. is possible. Then for the drop with women, I think it's two foold. I think it's the moms that you always talk about, right? who are concerned about their jobs, their husband's jobs to save the economy, but also their kids. And I think it's also a class of people who feel like there has been a governmental assault against us and our rights and our ability to live the American dream, which includes control over our bodies and how far we can go in society. And huge strides have been made. I'm not trying to take us back to the Stone Age There's obviously you know, real palpable stuff going on there. You don't have those kinds of drops and levels of faith in the system, and it did to a large degree kick off with the first Trump administration. and then it has like everything else accelerated in the second and I get asked a lot on the five because they They love this topic, right? Like whyy do you guys hate the country I don't think it's about hating the country. I think it's about hating the condition that the country Is it and that so many people in positions of power are unwilling to do anything about it. The collective sigh of Well, I understand that all of these norms have been broken or I understand that we are hollowing out the middle class or that it's impossible for you to get ahead And what can we do when you are the people that we send to Washington to actually do something about it is universally frustrating. It was thinking back to the conversation, you know we had with Ruben Galliego, the Arizona senator and something that he also had talked about where, especially for Latino Americans, that they don't begrudge anyone their wealth. They just want the chance themselves, right to have the big aftering truck, as he put it And yesterday, I was talking about this dilution in patriotism being linked to the fact that the system is rarigged against us and that the president is flouting the system so brazenly in our faces, like literally saying, well, your stocks went up too when he made twenty one thousand trades or this Qatari jet or making one point four billion dollars off of crypto. And I think that stuff does have a real palpable effect on how you think about the country on the fourth of July. to just say this wasn't what the founders wanted Right? It doesn't mean you don't believe in the ideals of it. But you don't see an elected class that wants to live up to it Yeah, I I One, there's been research showing that these social issues take more of an emotional and mental health toll on young women Yeah than they do on the rest of the population. Also, I think it's fair that for the first time in our nation's history. when a right has been taken away. We've been adding rights as time moves on. And the first time we took a right away, was when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. And it just so happens that that the most probably arguably most fundamental elemental right for a woman domain of her own body this administration and the Supreme Court took away. So I think you can understand, especially why Young women don't don't feel especially positive about the nation and are polling at the lowest levels of patriotism. I think you also have William Gibson said the futureures here it just not evenly distributed, I think the same thing about prosperity We have registered so much prosperity It just doesn't feel like it's evenly distributed And also the wealthiest have not acquitted themselves well All the headlines about the wealthiest and most blessed fortune among us. are mostly a story of depravity or a lack of empathy And then you have a political system where essentially in a media ecosystem where because profits enjoy enragement, It's just about making everybody look bad. But the data, if you're really honest about the data, it tells a different story. And there's points of Re concern. America is about providing opportunity to everybody, not about identifying a super class. of freakishly remarkable people are rich kids and turning them into billionaires, but giving as many people as possible a chance to be millionaires or as you put it, get that big eff in truck And I think people feel very discouraged, especially young people. especially around what's required to form a family, begin saving money and all of those things, colloege certification and buying a house now just seem out of out of reach. but there is definitely something unusual going on. and my kind of new intellectual role model, Jimmy Carr says this, happappiness isn't a function of what you have, but it's about the delta between what you have and your expectations. And people's expectations have just gone abbsolutely ape shit in terms of what is a reasonable life that they deserve to have Here's a question. 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Trump is now calling on Congress and birthright citizenship after a six three Supreme Court ruling struck down his executive order looking to end birthright citizenship. MAA supporters are taking things even further with Sean Davis CO of the Federalists taking the social media to suggest alternative options to circumvent the court's decision, including denying entry to all pregnant foreigners, denying entry of all female foreigners requiring sterilization of all foreign visitors prior to entry. Jesus Christ. Heonics. or a dissolution of the nation as a solution. Here's Trump talking about next steps. We'll take care of the birthright citizenship because that was That was not meant for rich people from other countries, that was meant for Actually, it was meant for the babies of slaves If you look at it It was a month after the Civil War ended that it went through, that's because it was meant for the babies of slaves. It wasn't meant for Rich people from China It was that came over and Gulf streams it was bed for the babies of slaves. What What the fuck is he talking about? Is he trying to say it's a good thing or a bad? Jess, What's going on here? Well, bad thing, but also, you are at the dedication of the Teddy Roosevelt liibrary. Like that's where he's saying that. I mean, Sean Davis losing his mind on Twitter. Stephen Miller You know, made a weird comment on Air as well about like you know, pregnant women, etcetera. like is they're going to stop letting pregnant women on airplanes. But They're scrambled, And they also see an opening that the vote was so close Like there were many smart people who thought that it would have been seven two, right? because language really couldn't be clearer. So you figure maybe you're going to lose Thomas and Alito just because They're the most crazy, I guess. Everybody else would see what Amy Coney Barrett saw and wrote beautiful defense of birthright citizenship Im so I think they can't really handle the rebuke and it just has become one of these racist animating features of the administration and they're hard pressed to let go of it. I feel like they got You know, ice flooding the streets of liberal cities taken away from them. knock on wood that continues. And so they're like, where can we go from this? And it is going to become one of those crazy pet projects for the rest of the term. And I just want to add, if birth rightright citizenship born around forty years ago, no Chance and Cash Patel as US. citizens, they're both anchor babies themselves. And our American soccer hero Fullerin Balladin The guy who scored last night and got the red card. I don't know how you feel about the red card controversy. I also maybe butchered his name, but I wanted to put it out there. I mean that guy, his Nigerian mother They live in London, comes here, seven months pregnant. They won't let her get on the plane to go home because she does want to deliver at home. So he is born here and goes home at two months and now plays for the US team That is first right citizenship in action. And I'm sure they won't be commenting on it. But those are the cases that we're talking about. Does birth tourism exist Yes, it does exist. There are very real stories about what rich Chinese people are doing, but this is in the Constitution and net net, it's a benefit to the country Well, just as the left wants to obsess over whether someone went through transition puberty, which enables them to play in women's sports And we're talking about a couple dozen, maybe a couple hundred people And we're going to make that our issue and the Republicans are going to seize on it. and And where our likelihood of taking Congress will go from you know, seventy percent to sixty percent The Republicans want to create a weapon of mass destraction and talk about something that just isn't that common And I love that you incorporated the World Cup into this Both America and England advanced, which is huge. Americans look incredibly athletic and strong The UK, unfortunately, they're to have to play Mexico in the Mexico city anyways, but just on a broader level, the World Cup is so much what we needed, right? And the analogy I used is that cousins that just love each other finally have a sleepover because they're parents who are constantly fighting or out of town And also the absence of Trump, thank you, President Trump and Stephen Miller for getting no fuck nowhere near the World Cup. I think that has been the nicest thing about it is there hasn't been this poltergeist showing up And just just shit posting the end shitification of the World Cup has not happened because the administration and Stephen Miller have stayed away from it It also reflects just how wonderful Americans are u to see you know, people in Seattle in Philadelphia. in Kansans, the way they treat tourists It just makes everyone feel the correct way about America and that is on the whole, Americans are an interesting, funny people that eat really fattening fried food that is wonderful It has been the World Cup is really is has been probably the best branding event that we desperately needed for the United States. Now I have a personal story around An anchor baby And it's the following, I am an anchor baby. My mom and dad immigrated from Glasgow and London separately on a steamship in their late teens and early twenties. and landed in Canada And my mom was a stenographer, my father sold candles and I met at a dance got married, got pregnant. I'm pretty sure it was the opposite way around, but they didn't tell me that and They got they could not handle the idea of another Canadian winner. And they were reading, I think the Gobe in Mail. And my mom read an article that said the best weather in North America was in this place called San Diego And so they packed up my mom's Austin Mini Metro, which is basically a lawn mower with doors My mom was seven and a half months pregnant And they drove across the nation staying in people's homes and staying in cheap hotels and got to San Diego, I think seven or nine days later And I was born It was something like twenty nine days later, I was early It's at La Jolla Memorial or something or San Diego Memorial Hospital And if this law were enacted, my mom would have either been stopped at the border Or what I would like to know is given that my mom entered illegally, do I have the tax obligations of an American citizen, because and this is a fllex, but I'll make it, me and my companies have paid well over a hundred million dollars in US taxes over the last thirty years So can I have that money back if I renounnce my citizenship given that my mom really had no rights to enter, meaning I am not anchor baby. thereby I'm not really a citizen suchuch that if I peace out to Dubai on my next liquidity event, I'm not subject to American taxes because I'm here for it. The notion that we don't benefit whether it's incredible forwards and strikers who were born in America or whether it's you know, angry angry professors who get very lucky courtesy of big government at the University of California You know, this anchor baby thing, first off, it's a small number of people. And I think if you really did the analysis, you would find that these anchor babies are accretive to the nation. that they are a net positive And something again, we don't like to talk about is the people that take those kind of risks and come here Their kids inherit that DNA And generally speaking are productive citizens So It's an unimportant issue that they will use as a cudgel to tap into the darkest racist fears of Americans who feel W some legitimacy that immigration is out of control and that their life and their culture is being taken from them by immigrants are eating cats and dogs, so to speak This again is a non issue that really doesn't affect many people. And I would argue that people who risk everything and get an Austin mini metros and drive across the nation and give birth to their kids in San Diego. than on the whole, the nation is a better place for it And instead we're going to try and weaponize this, tap into people's worst instincts, and pass unnecessary laws that are ineffective don't really have any real impact other than to say to the world, donon't trust those people in Kansas. donon't trust those good people in Philadelphia We Americans are actually a really fucking awful people which is not good for our brand, not good for our trade, not good for our soft power abroad and also it's just not true We not only have a minority government We have a minority complexion of how and what America actually feels like and how they behave just to add to that and I love your personal story. the real promise of Like we're going to go somewhere where we're going to have a better life and doing it. Better weather. Well, better weather, yes, leads to a better life. You know, having been seven and a half months pregnant The idea of taking a risk like that in that condition feels very far flung to me. So I grit through the bad weather. Anyway, very cool story just to add that at a moment where Americans have very real issues, and it doesn't mean that some indicators aren't going in the right direction, but where they feel a financial pressure like an anvil sitting on them that the Republicans seemingly want to run an election on fake story is like election fraud with the Save America actct you know, fake immigration problems with birth rightright citizenship is not really speaking to the needs of the populace To say the least What I think is amazing is that make America great again appears to have made Canada great again. Americans aren't the only ones trying to gin up patriotism this week Happy belated Canada Day to you speaking of Canadians, Jess How much do we fucking love Canadians? Can I just remind everybody again that My favorite test of Wh is a true friend? was by what the Holocaust S survivor said to Warren Buffett and she said, my litmus test is would they hide me? I heard that and it was one of those things I thought That is so puncturing, would they Hide me And just to remind everybody, Canada hit Americans in the nineteen seventy nine hostage crisis and put themselves in real physical harm. hid Americans in the embassy, got them out safely and then stuck around in enormous personal arrestk. Canada is the largest undefended border in the world U Unfortunately, they fucked up and trusted us and created an economy where seventy percent of their exports come to us and then we got someomebody who decides to provide comfort to his enemies and should post his allies So but anyways, having said that, happy Canada Day. I absolutely when we did that tour, the pivot tour, hands down best audience is Toronto. It's just it's a wonderful ally, but new polling shows that Trump has actually managed to foster Canadian patriotism And Canadian pride and flag waving had been on the decline until he returned to office. Nothing unites you Like a head up your ass neighbor unjustifiably shit posting you. An thoughts And he's also trying to undo this act trade act that he actually himself signed between Canada and Mexico in twenty eighteen, which makes that he thought it was a great deal. thatough was so much better than NAFA Yeah An thoughts on this, Jess? I'm always happy for a Mark Carney story. exxcites me. I love when you said that he's become the leader of Europe, actually, de facto ripping up the USMCA is an interesting choice. am Not a trade representative. I do not know every line the agreement. We do know who originally picked these terms and it was the president himself, and he hasn't had a complete lobotomy. So he used to think that this was a good deal It's going to have huge repercussions if we do pull out for the auto and agriculture industry is the most. I think it's probably a little bit of a negotiating tactic. So the USMCA had like a ten year range and they needed to renew and then you would get another sixteen year deal. He's trying to though have bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico, which is not what they want. They want to have a North American agreement. Seinbaum has been pretty defiant as she usually is. And I think that Carney's just kind of like thinks that we're a bit of a yawn. point Like he's been working so hard to America proof Canada that I notot saying he doesn't. need to have a relationship with us, but I think that he's so used to the bluster. the kind of faux showmanship of Trump and the Trump administration that he's not sweating this particularly hard and knows as well that the auto lobby and the farm lobby will not allow Trump and James and Greer, the trade repepresentative, to do their worst essentially, But it feels like, you know, since Liberation Day, there has just been these dominoes falling and the idea of undoing You know, their own version of NAFTA is just another one tipping over heading in a very bad Well So a few years ago I invested in a company called NVa And the reason I invested it was It was essentially subscription search and this guy named Sridar Ramaswani who is ran Google search for alphabet and just an enormous brain and you speak to the guy and you're like, take my money. This guy just sees the matrix So I invested in this company and his thesis and I agreed with him W was that it was the ad model that made search Um bad for people that if it was subscription search and they just It too it just took you to the right place as opposed to a place you could further monetize, it would make search better. So fine, I invested never got traction. It ends up to people would rather have free ad supported surge that might take them to another place where they can further monetize And the company was acquired by Snowflake, this SaaS company or workflow company, I actually I don't know what the fuck they do. Snowflake And the reason it was clear, the reason they acquired the company and gave the investors their money back was it was an Aqua hire that they just wanted Sredar. and now Sredar is the CEO of Snowflake. because they met that team and said, okay, Streetar is worth two hundred million dollars. So we'll acquire the company My idea is, I'm absolutely. in favor of the U. S invading Canada And then thinking of it as an aqual highire and putting Karney in charge of all of North America I think we should acquire Canada and put him in charge. And I think that the world would or the world would just be a much better Please Support for this show comes from Fetch Pet Insurance. Do you have a pet Every six seconds, a pet owner in the US gets hit with a vet bill of over a thousand dollars, and it's almost always an unwelcome surprise That's where Fetch pet insurance comes in. Fetch is the most complete pet insurance. Get paid back up to ninety percent of vet bills. You can use any vet in the US and Canada. All vets are in network. Go to fetchpet dot com slash save right now for your free quote. That's fetchpet dot com slash save. You want to get your backyard summer ready, but you don't want to break the bank? Wayfare gets it, planning on dining alfresco or relaxing poolside Wayfair has everything you need to prep your space. Shop now and save up to seventy percent off during Wayfair's Fourth of July clearance. sccore huge deals on outdoor furniture, area rugs, and more. We're talking thousands of products for every style and budget. Plus, surprise Flash deals July sixth. Don't wait S shhop Wayfare's Fourth of July clearance now through july sixth at wayfare dot com d Way fair every style every home It's me the We don't need the jingle twice. Stop it. This is about vacation inflation and how priceline negotiates amazing deals on hotels, flights, and rental cars. Sems like deced Yeah, but I didn't mention that you can save up to sixty percent off hotels in the prriceline app. Timel No one deals more deals than Please stop The AI race is shifting fast. Open AI is reportedly proposing the U.S. government take a five percent stake in leading AI companies While Palanteir CEO Alex Carp says open AI and anthropics expensive AI models are already losing favors cheaper alternatives cch up Let's watch a clip from his interview on CNBC this week. In this country at every single enterprise I deal with these people are living. They're like I am paying for tokens that create no value These people are stealing the weights and alpha of my business and they're creating a wealth tax that does not help the poor. It just punishes Starts with the billionaires, everyvery single person at this table is going to be paying a wealth tax only to punish us. And the reason for it is because these models have been completely over, irresponsibly overseale This is it I need you to work my way through this. I mean, I know that open AI offering a stake in the country in their company is a facet of Trump's personality, right? that everyone knows that they have to kind of pay a bribe and then he's turning us into you know, a quasi socialist enterprise here, but I'd love for you to explain to me what Alex Carp is talking about. It seems like he's pissed that he doesn't have the direct relationship with the government that he used to, that now that the other companies are getting in on it. So I turn it to you to help me out here Well, so Open AI is saying it wants government equity and Palantir says cheap AI wins. So Open AI proposing that the government take a five percent stake in AI is essentially a protection racket We'll give you some equity, a give in exchange you favor us over everybody else. It's It's essentially cronyism dressed up as patriotism, or at worst, it's what I've been predicting and that is a bailout of AI companies whose valuations can' or CapEx commitments can't in any way be justified by the demand that you're already starting to see is not nearly as a fraction of what these guys were all claiming it would be What they're really saying or what Alman is really saying is we would like you to regulate our competitors and give us a government anchor client and favorable regulation or lack of regulation, exchange for equity It's I mean, it's arguably it's brilliant, but it's mostly gross and carp I mean Whenever you have the far left and the far right agreeing on anything, You know, it's a really bad fucking idea They both come together on anti Semitism Bad idea. They both come together being anti vaccine. bad idea They both come together on socialism The far right believes It makes sense to take make an investment in Intel That's socialism, that's picking winners They think it's a good idea to have a golden share. in U. S. steel. That is socialism. They think it's a good idea to start taking investments in certain AI companies and not others. That is socialism and what you end up with is warehouses full of unsold Doloreans in Ireland or France. And the left believes the far left believes in government run food stores, which I would just refer to as government sponsored food lines that somehow government knows how to do this shit. You don't want your produce by the guy running the DMV, and you certainly don't want Donald Trump weighing in on what Intels should be doing, you know, what kind of chips they should be producing We're not producing So carp is actually right on the economics and I've been thinking about this a lot Commoditization of AI models is happening fast And the expensive frontier model business is getting squeezed and that is Uber ripped through its AI budget in two months and the CFOs of every business are saying These bills are out of control and I need people managers to start telling me what we're getting, what the return is. When we spent forty million dollars at Uber on AI, how is that getting Jess is you know, QX sixty to her house faster. How is that making the ride to Say Margot for Scott nicer? Like what what exactly are we getting from this? And managers are having an increasingly difficult time justifying the spend and CFO's. are starting to say, okay Maybe we said pull back this spend. And what you're seeing in the market, Is it supposedly the safe place was an infrastructure spend, you know, big data centers And what we're starting to see is that there appears now to only be two customers for data centers, anthropic and open AI We thought Facebook would be a huge player for demand. It ends up, they built all this infrastructure, now they're leasing it out Musk built a huge colossus in data center infrastructure, thinking that his XAI or GroC would be a huge hit. It's not. And now he's renting it out. It looks like we're going from a demand crisis to a supply crisis. on the infrastructure side. So as AI is essentially following the exact same curve as cloud computing. Margins compress That is an infrastructure players win. I don't think that's true But what we're seeing right now is the application layer is getting commoditized and slimming down to one or two players. The question people are asking is who owns the pipes? And rightight now it's a three way race between Microsoft, Google and Amazon And everyone else is renting from them. But I think with both Open AI andanthropic delaying their IPOs to next year. and both XAI and Facebook saying we're going to rent out our infrastructure because we overestimated the internal demand for it. I believe you're starting to see, a cracks in this AI wall. and there's going to be nowhere to hide it. I don't care if you're a Japanese bondholder or in private credit or an investor in infrastructure, whatever it is, there's going to be nowhere to hide. when I think this coming drawdown happens But what Carp is saying, I think is is actually true that These models are all of a sudden, it ends up there's only two big customers for all of this driving all of this spend. And those two customers have shelved their IPOs, meaning they did not want to display open the cupboards and show their numbers This is all mean in my opinion, it means the storm clouds The storm clouds are forming. And what we're going to see here is the biggest bailout since the PPP loans or the bailout of the banks in two thousand eight, and it'll try to be Trump will try to cosplay or pretend that this is growth or an investment or the government's going to make money here. Instead, all this is will be a debt fueled tax on future generations to try and bail out AI, which America has become a giant bet on. in some Capitalism on the way up, privatize the gains and socialize the losses on the way down. That's not actually socialism, it's cronyism. But the far left and the far right, are both meeting at this dangerous place that somehow socialism makes sense Well, that was an uplifting story. There you go. Thank you Glass hf empty. I'm not here with a message of hope, Jess. Except. England is bringing it home. England is bringing it home Do you really think that? I mean, your Sweden pick was like a little off, so That hurts Fucking anyone but France. Anyone but France, my God Did you see that gol from Ibak? Jesus Christ, France is good Yeah I didn't I like it. I mean, I saw him in the twenty eighteen World Cup and when he was like fresh, you know Yeah, I think did we figure out we were in the stadium together Uh, you went you were in Russia We talked about this. We did talk about it days of Russian food. I can I can really hang with. Yeah Anyway, sorry we missed you there, but Embape is He's so good and he seems like a really sweet guy too. I know that's very ladyli of me to emphasize that that matters to me. It does Yeah fucking adorable. I hope Morocco beats some. Morocco' amazing too, but yeah, it was very exciting to see both teeam England and team at USA addvanced. This is very exciting. Okay. Yeah. spepeaking of very exciting Let's talk about those weirdos that went to the top of the Empire State builduilding. What were they doing up there just? Well, they were making a statement about making love, not war and they got engaged. It is the most insane Ring pick ever taken. Hopefully our editors will lace that in here. It was fun though. I was at work and every network then changes to live coverage of a couple scaling the Empire State building over four four hundred feet tall. They're the couple from a twenty twenty four Netflix documentary, so had a lot of experience with this They were arrested. I did love also that Jessica Titch, the NYPD commissioner used the body cam footage of what the rescue looked like. She's like, okay, well we better get in on the idea that like we can do something really and well too, right And I Yeah, I don't know what kind of jail time or what's going to happen to them. They're not going to serve any time in jail. It was very exciting and pretty cool to me. I saw someone posted that it's An amazing thing when you can find someone insane as you Right? And then you can go on to marry that person. So Oh that's fucking adorable. I see it as Narcissists that don't like each other that much that hey look at me and also You know, if the other person dies and falls to a fury death, I'm okay with that. It's not that big a deal. I mean, These are two people. It's just I like, okay, Th these people love attention And they like each other, but they don't love each other. They don't They don't love each other enough not to endure the risk involving your fiancee Um, I think it's easier just justust to have a recommitment ceremony and get divorced two years later. I was gonna ask, so low odds of a recommitment ceremony for this couple. I think those things are literally the most ridul I've been invited to two of those or refuseed to go. I'm like, just tell us when you're getting divorced And I'm sure he's sorry and, you know, whoever was fucking someone else, you know Hopefully, hopefully it was just an errant thing But Th these are the most ridiculous things in the world. We just had our fifth wedding anniversary and I or original wedding was really tiny. It was just in a restaurant. It was peak COVID. I was pregnant. my dad was dying. it was like You know, not any sort of it was a fair. mad during COVID I didn't know that. Yeah twenty twenty one, june twenty twenty one by for our fifth anniversary, I was pitching like Party And originally That's fun Yeah, but originally I said like, you know, we could also get married because I wore like a pink cocktail dress. I didn't wear like a wedding gown and he was like