Reflecting on Intuition and Trust

We spend hours deciding what to buy But there's a split second decision. that can make or break a sale Do you have the trust Bye now. Aentic commomerce is testing that moment more than ever And that's where PayPal comes in With twenty five years of checkouts, four hundred million consumer accounts globally and the benefit of purchase and seller protection All of which make sure wherever a purchase starts It ends with trust Buill for payments, growth and agentic PayPal openpen, built for all business. Visit PayPal openen Purchase and seller protections on eligible transactions only terms apply See payPal. com slash risk dash mananagement for details I have a friend named Dan I've known him for years He's in his seventies, lives outside Washington, DC. He's in the crisis communications business Companies call them in when they have a big problem In fact, that's how I met him I was working on a story about one of his cases And he called me up Den and I And last f He said something to me in passing about having to go for a bunch of tests He didn't say why It didn't seem like a big deal A last May My internist told me that he was pretty sure I had prostate cancer. And for me it was a I can't say it was a nothing reaction, but it was certainly a very modest reaction I said to him, isn't this the minor League of Ccers And isn't it a rite of passage if you're a man my age That's how I thought about it and it was reinforced when I have connected with a urologist who said to me anyytime in the next few months, have an MRI So I thought of it as a minor thing And My first contact with my reinforced set So I didn't even bother. to do anything until August from mate to August. and I go from a, uh So a blood test to an MRI, to a biopsy, to a PET scan And then it was Yeah, you got it and And then the next deal was You which just go and get some radiation and some Hormone therapy And it was And I had to draw it out of the physician and it was a Casual matter of fact. And that was sort of dumped in my lap at that point But at a certain point hing nagged at him He wasn't sure why, since everything thus far had been straightforward So he started calling around But as I was going through it because of my work and friends, I've had lots of Health clients and education clients, as you know, I asked somebody just to look at it Make sure There wasn't something. and I was even embarrassed. and hesitant to ask because I thought it'd such a minor problem. It felt like an imposition. and my friend wanted to do it and I I was even Pant and reluctant and , uh, a doctor whichich I will name Dr. Master at Emory, looked at it and said, you have a big problem You have an urgent problem? And it was like that And he said, if you were my patient I would have had you in my surgical suite Last week But you have an urgent matter My name is Malcolm Gladwell. You're listening to Revisionist History, my podcast about things overlooked and misunderstood. This episode, where we explore how and when trust decisions are made, is sponsored by PayPal Open. Trusted by consumers built for all business For over twenty five years, they've been at the forefront of commerce, helping merchants of all sizes grow So wherever commerce moves next You can rest ass shirred PayPal open has your back Sll openpen. com to learn more Over several episodes, we'll dive into the topic of trust. comes from the moment it's earned and how we decide Who to trust or not And I wanted to start with the story of my friend Dan Who out of the blue one day was told that a problem he thought was routine was actually threatening his life. and you had to decide under the most emotionally overwhelming circumstances imaginable. Trust Hey My firehouse. looked at my data and said, you have a big growph? And he said, others will tell you that you don't. But I'm telling you do. One of the many interesting things about Dan is that if I told you his full name And you gooogled him Almost nothing would come up. He doesn't advertise He doesn't give interviews He doesn't go to fancy Gallas. There are no pictures of him anywhere He's almost invisible. But in the very rareified world of Fortune five hundred companies and CEOs and political big wigs, everyone knows, Dan Because he's the guy you call when you have a problem you don't know how to deal with for the past nearly forty years I have lived what I refer to as the intersection of bad luck and bad judgment I helpope people who have managed to get themselves into really serious a kind of trouble that is career defining can be threatening to the existence of a business brings a level of scrutiny from the Justice Department or Congress or media uh, that is inescapable Usually to borrow the words of Fank Williams. These are folks who see their name at the top of the page And you are you're not going to blow your R horn but literally like if some Big shop person gets in trouble you like It's like ghostbusters. It's like Dan gets the call. You get the first call as far as I can tell For the last twenty five, thirty years I get the call And there have been Many times where I will see a story break And I'm automatically processing it, reacting, what do I think? What do I think going on And in the back of my mind, I'm thinking I might get a call In many cases, I do get a call And whether it's the General Motors bankruptcy or the Paterno Penn State case or the BP oil spill, the equifax data breach You know, e thereer limits on what I can say about what I did, but I get I get the call Now why do let's talk about this in the context of trust So you haveve spent your life walking into Fd rooms, executive suites, what have you people who in most cases, you I've never met before People just know you by reputation Why do they trust you is It's an interesting thing. I've thought about it sometimes because I've wondered about misplaced trusts The genuine trust comes through the process It isn't In the beginning, it's hope It's and it's panic and it's fear and they've been told by somebody that they do trust This is the guy you need. they, you know, they're in such difficult spot They don't know where to turn. They are desperate to find someomebody who can help them. you know, an irony for me in my medical situation as they used to say to clients sort of jokingly that I'm a urologist and that I'm the person you don't really want to see. But when you need to see there isn't anything more important You want to see that urologist and you want that problem solved There is a sense of urgency that is focusing in a way that nothing else matters And then I end up in this situation needing my urologist, but It is Um But I what I know is they know quickly if they can trust me You they can tell Your tone the first things you say are so critically important. the manner your style your sense of confidence. All those things communicate absolutely instantly. People are processing Is this a person in my in the most critical situation of my career Should I give him time? Should I give him space shouldh't pay attention to what they're saying And what is it in that moment are you If you had to summarize as simply as possible what you're bringing to them in that moment What is it It's a good question. It's a hard question because is I've explained I will be the least knowledgeable person in any room I'm in and partly it's because I'm in the rooms on calls and meetings in boardrooms. with people who are phenomenally experperienence capable educated credentials. leading scientists engineers, MBAs, lawyers, CEOs, board chairs tremendously accomplished and they have a world of advisors around them There' a lot for counsel In House couounsel on the communications Front Marketing leegal. outside advisors, business consultants, So what do I bring? I don't have any of those credentials. Um, I bring a depth of experience of being in Truly, truly difficult situations hundredundreds of times. where the stakes are so big and the pressure is so great I think if I have a particular skill, is synthesize Clarify U I hope and believe that I bring a common sense perspective to it which relates to the clarity And I want to help them prioritize what they're doing and how they're processing it and then Inevitably I'm involved in what do you say about it What do you say? Who says it? When do you say it How do you communicate that? And that It can sound easy, but then you've got You know all the technical aspects, the factual side of that, you got the legal considerations, the regulatory considerations and all those pressures are there How can you help them fight through that. and get them to say something real people can understand There's an honesty and integrity and a value to it In a meeting with a client, have you ever raised your voice? You do have Speaking of Why it is, peopleople trust you You do radiate kind of Calm end So There's something dispassionate about the way you see the world And I imagineing you're doing the people who are often highly emotional Oh o yeah. I mean, I'm in a room But there's always, there's lots of screaming. Um, there's jockeying People are desperate to sort of seek an advisory role. others are trying to get out of it There are people who are trying to take credit and they're people trying to Um Lay blame And there's just tremendous emotion You know, when I what I know I'll just tell you a few things I really have never talked about I need to get to a point where the CEO will tell me anything And I mean, tell me the personal side because The personal emotional toal of these things is never really factored in and it plays a huge part in what they're going through So I It's not as much what I say as what I hear. I want them to feel if they reach the point where they want to contro Tuly confide in me And I know. U m I'm going to play a role. The other thing that I know is it is absolutely essential. for me to be candid in my very first conversations Really candid So you mentioned earlier about do you tell them how bad it is In a sense I do I'm not telling them something they don't know But I want them to know two things that I have a sense of the situation without all the factual command that they have. I have a sense of it and that I am going to be absolutely direct with them I'm not I'm not trying to shock. I'm not trying to make them feel worse. But I'm unafraid tell them what I think And that's that's and those first literally those first conversations. It's it's your role So you go and see Doror Master. Tables are turned Dan had become the client. person in a state of emotional distress and confusion Talking to a stranger and trying to decide whether to trust him We'll be right back We spend hours researching products online and deciding what to buy But it's a split second decision that can make or break a sale Do you have the trust the byy now button The way we discover and compare things is evolving, happening faster and influenced by new forms of intelligent advice But the underlying trust question doesn't go away If anything, it's more important than ever. That's where PayPal comes in For more than twenty five years, they've been a trusted way to pay And now PayPal can make the agentic era of commerce work for merchants Letting them maintain control of their brand The customer relationships, So even as the way we shop changes, the moment that matters most stillill feels familiar Bilt for payments, Gth and agentic PayPal open, built for all business PayPal openen d. com getet started Purchase and seller protections on eligible transactions only terms apply See payPal. com slash risk dash mananagement for details This is fascinating under Dan because in a you are in a moment There's a moment here when you start to treat this problem you're having in the same way that you actually said this to me. There was a moment when I started to treat this problem I understood this was no different from the problems I deal within my work. Yeah, that's when this whole thing turned. When do you have that sense of o This is something I've been doing my whole life. Well, so Dr. Master is telling me I have a serious problem It needs to be addressed and that I need surgery He's not the one to do it. Then I followed up. And I talked to two surgeons. who said to me Surgery iss out of the question can't be done And that my problem was a lot more complicated, a lot more advanced. And now the script is have changed dramatically. We've gone from doctors shrugging to doctors saying It's so bad, we don't even think we can do surger And when they say that, so what are they telling you your options are at that moment Um, that you're gonna need other All the treatments that are available And they kept saying, Malcolm It's a very interesting thing because you know, I pay Again, it was my instincts I listen to exactly what they're saying and the way they say it and the order in which they're saying it The first thing They would say to me is we can keep you alive. And that was meant as a reassuring message and it wasn't. Not because I fear death because I thought They thought that I feared death And what I was worried about was quality of life more than length of life and consistently It was about we're going to keep your life. We can keep you lifeive And then it was But surgery is not an option you're too far gone And then it was of radiation, extensive Hormones the rest of my life U and chemotherapy and an ordeal that would be I'm bl. grateful for anything, but exceedingly unpleasant a life that was Tremendously compromised I talked to these surgeons and their language was One surgeon said, Oh, oh, no, no, no, no, no, no immmediately after he told me You know You can stay alive, rightight You don't want the surgery. He said, I I would be I would not want to do it, but he said, I'll do it if you want me to And I don't, you know But he literally said, I'll do it if you if you really want me to You know, no one, of course is thinking of that. A second surgeon that I talked to kept saying and I'm not exaggerating. I think he said it. I made notes Seven times and I had a video chat with him He said It's at least ninety percent that I will not be successful. And he said it's probably below Probably single digits to have any chance of success here. And he was so worried that I wasn't hearing that. He kept repeating it overver and over and over again So after I talk to them, I talked to another doctor who said to me finally, the magical message for me, which is You're the only one who can figure out what to do her Dann. The doctors can't figure this out for you and I immediately understood what that meant. And I was immediately comfortable. I thought I distress Interestingly The challenge was great, but the stress receded I thought I know this. I know I know exactly what he's saying What did he mean Not that I had been talking to incompetent doctors. Not that I was getting bad advice can argue about elements of it but that it is a problem that doesn't have Ncessarily obvious clear advice attached to it. that what no one had said, but which I figured out The tests are not clear. they're not definitive, they're not perfect And that the science is incredibly complicated. and that I could get extxtremely accomplished people from different fields, oncologists, pathologists, surgeons Looking at this And they could legitimately come to a wide range of different views I thought, I've lived my life in that room. I know what that means So what was your next step Wit att the moment he says that So that's the moment where you say, okay, I've been here before? No, I know, I know the deal He was in a crisis. And what had he spent his entire life doing Solving crises What was a change in your perspective at that moment? Did you you said H you tremendous comfort? Yeah was It was I am a hundred percent confident and comfortable making this decision myself Not because I thought I would be perfect or that I knew more than the doctors, I knew that I didn't but that I knew the right process to go through to arrive at the best conclusion I could arrive at And it was it was a tremendous calming experience for me But I was blessed because of this experience, notothing I'd ever planned on, notothing I would have ever thought about when I started this but I've been through it Dozens and dozens and dozens of times on incredibly complicated high stakes issues, careers, billions of dollars and that I had a network of people that I could All on for perspective So I knew I would get advice. So I just from that moment, I just said, this is my newest case assignment First trust was misplac trust Second trust stage was You can trust yourself. I Dan can trust myself on this I can trust myself in this process. So he started over doing exactly the thing he always does when he takes on a new case You read everything there was to read He went through his medical records with a fine tooth comb flagging the things that he didn't understand or that needed clarification He was guided by one of the foundational principles of his work First facts Al wrong Always wrong, always wrong Always. Wait,be explain that a little bit because it's super relevant here. 'ause in your case, the first facts are wrong Why are first facts wrong Well, um It it's the kind of thing, you know, I had to learn through experience. Again, you're in a room. You have brillant doctors, Brilliant engineers MBAs Fabulous lawyers outside couns And so when they're telling you something You believe it You you're based on their credibility, their integrity, their experience P problem is where did they get what they know And a crisis iss coming too fast How's it been processed? How thorough is it? How much can you know? And how's it being interpreted? Who's interpreting? And Sometimes there could be some obvious bias, sometometimes there's Unintentional bias, but What I what I always know is you don't have it all What you think you have Part of it's wrong. And you need to Be extremely careful the decisions you're making based on those facts and what you're saying Be you're going be reversing some of those decisions, and you're going to be eating some of those words And Malcolm, I never even thought about that in my case I did what all my clients do. Well, I've good sererious lab test. I've got an important experienced doctor. I've got Other experts have looked at it Surely these things A right, you can rely on them. And I did, and I was absolutely wrong What he learned was that the tests that everyone was using to make sense of his case Where was his cancer How bad was it? How much had it spread We' flawed not because of anyone's incompetence. But just because trying to get an accurate picture of cancer when you first find it is really, really hard And that what happens is when doctors speak to their patients, they sometimes forget to communicate this fact They pretend that they know something for certain when they actually don't whichich meant that you couldn't put your trust in the results of biopsies and scans You are of necessity, in the world of subjectivity and judgment And Dan knew all about the world of subjectivity and judgment. It was where he had spent his entire career. Then When he felt that he was at least informed enough to ask the right questions He put together a list of doctors he wanted to interview Put everything on hold for two months. and had a zoom call one specialist after another to you You go out, how many doctors do you interview U I had conversations with eighteen doctors. eighteen eighteen and of those eighteen How many told you Can you kind of quantify what they told you? like How many told you surgery or fififteen told you what Don't do surery. Don't do surgery One was split and two said yes Tell me about two who said yes U It was u And I never shared the information between the two of them I want to just objective views And they both almost exactly the same thing, almost exactly the same way And they said They both acknowledged Okay I'm certain this will be A distinct minority of views that you're going to hear If you talk to other people Almost anybody else will tell you. Not to do surgery and that you can't do surgery and but they're wrong And U The factor in it was they also both said Your chance Beating this isn't great But it's non existent if you don't have surgery. And mattered a lot to me. you know, in the other calls, again Good doctors Eience doctors put saying The Likelihood of being successful almost nothing. N we know from the start we're not going to be able to get it all out U It's going to give you with a lot of difficult side effects thenen you're going to have to start these other treatments The side effects for the follow upp treatments will be compounding with the side effects you're having after surgery And I remember An oncologist say to me It is the absolute worst course of action you can take So what was different about these two guys I disagreed. Oh The funny thing because It really does relate to my life experience and my work Cfident clear Concise unemotional. senative and convincing I'm not just words and manner, but Factually the way they presented it. and listening to that combined with I had already reached a point withith all the information I had realizing that there were you know, it's cloudy information and differences of opinion. And I thought I know that. I'm comfortable with that now. and that I thought based H you know, I don't think I ever took a science class and High school or college The science Convince me There was a very good chance that these doctors were wrong. Um, the dude that these tests head fllaws that some of it just didn't add up in the ways that it had been looked at And I combined my own instincts, my own reading and information with the way these two doctors talked and I thought My life open them. Dan ended up choosing a surgeon at Duke University He wasn't a prostate specialist He was just someone who did complex cancer cases of all kinds He was used to looking at things It seemed impossible He has a different lens. Yes He's seen a broader range presumably of problematic And again, that's something I can relate to I'm in rooms. Years ago, Malcolm, the CEO of Disney said We would never be good at handling a crisis because we've never had one. And I thought that can't be true Be true You Disne. And what I realized in most of the rooms I've ever been in They've never had bet your career, bet the company P. We think that everybody has You've had all kinds of tests, but For most people, it's a new experience. or the stakes are so big. Are you talking about the doctor? So in this case The doctor had seen Yes, C see scientific cl And I have been in Hundreds of boardrooms. where I'm looking at a CEO and he or she's wondering Is this the end of my career? Is this how I'm going to be defined? Am I going lose my net worth? Am I going go to jail? Am I going to be humiliated in front of Congress Am I going to be embarrassed with my family? That fear and You know, I've had them say to me My God, my communications people are under their desks You're scared to death My lawyers are arguing with each other My board, strong differences of opinions there And then, you know, what you also have in those situations is They've got their friends, their neighbors, their country club, colleagues They' their business peers and friends Somebody inevitably says to me, My wife's brother's neighbor's cousin says I should do X You've got it coming in from all directions So you're trying to figure out who do I trust as I've communicating you before the facts are wrong, I one hundred percent guarantee you. You don't have all the facts and some of the facts you think you have are wrong So how am I supposed to make a decision now and So I end up with this surgeon He broke it into two pieces. Can I do the surgery technically? Absolutely. Yes Is the surgery going to be a success Differe question Differe question Will it save you You That's a whole separate conversation from can I perform the procedure and succeed at that so that you can have the chance to talk about these other things So his first was one hundred percent, yes. his second was fififty, fifty that it's going to help you Best And if the studies are what these other doctors are saying You do have a single digit likelihood of success If they're wrong You could have fifty percent or better So it's how do you interpret all the information we have and And then it was also saying to him I've got to have sort of the free rein to do whatever I think I need to do once I get in. And do you move from this is my guy to The actual surgery. What's the time A H And by the time I spoke to him U One of the things I liked about my conversation with him, I was told that You should talk to this guy and he's confident he can help you when I talk to him said, no, no, no, no, I'm not confident. I'm confident I can do this procedure successfully I can't give you false confidence about your outcome and And that was helpful to me. It was honest I didn't need somebody It's another Jiew of mun People who tell you they can solve your problem be extremely suspicious Extremely suspicious Your problem is multi layers Evolved over a long period of time. All kinds of dynamics at play And so in this case Um, I knew that he could do the surgery I hadd already factored all the calculations from the others. I knew it was my only really good chance And I had concluded that the analysis I was getting was flawed from the others And I just I said, let's go and within In weeks, I went from my first conversation with them to ha surgery Tell me about that first conversation you had with him after the surgery was over The first thing was There were certain Cancerous spots that were in doubt could get them. And so I needed to know immediately Did you get them? And he said, yes, got them because the cancer had metastasized And I got them And then it was you know, how far and See you know, he had to He said I had to nip cut from A move mostost of the things inside you Um I told him Thank you, but I'm as partial to as many parts as I can keep So He had to do a lot , but he was confident He got everything he wanted to get And the initial pathology after the surgery was positive, but you don't know. But it was a It was exactly what he said, which is the surgery was successful Now we wait on the outcomes And and I was I was reled, but I I don't want to sound overcfident, but it was what I expected And how long? I forgotten now There was there was there was a six week. There was two six weeks And you get a blood test And my You you know, you get a PSA score and mine had gone down significantly. was not in a great zone but a good zone That's six weeks And then at another six weeks I went down and I, you know, I have my My text from him which I O K ' it's the only time I've ever gotten a text from a doctor where he used miraculous three times. And in one paragraph to me come with my test scores. I believe I got a screenshot of that one So and my, you know, my doctors The two They were like kids. high five and, you know over the phone to each other, they both joined on a conference call to call me to tell me the results. They were Ecstatic this There's three Trust laayers here. there is The misplaced trust in the beginning. Understanding that you would You would offered, you would extended trust Prematurely U both to doctors and I had assume Trust was justified Trust in the doctor, trust in his experience. his approach and trust in the tests There was misplaced But and and andm I'm, you know, I'm more critical of myself than I am of And then the second layer was understanding C trust myself in this. This is, I know this. I've done this, I have experience in this Yes. And then the third layer was This is there person. I'm going to place my trust in for this surgery Exactly right. I mean, I Trust myself. I don't know how people that may sound to people. It may sound arrogant or Naive or whatever. It's It was hard earned from deceades in rooms where People would turn to me and say, Now, what do you think And if you can't add value or which you're say doesn't make sense You're going to be out of that room. You're never going to be around. And my my my work was one hundred percent referral based. so If they don't have value in the room, I don't have any I don't have a care So it was that. and then it was person and the process he laid out what he said he would do and how we would do it and what the equation was Putting all that together along with my reading and analysis I had a high degree of confidence that there was the right choice. And and I can honestly say, didn'tose a moments sleep hadad no second thoughts I was certain I had chosen the right course. The idea that you didn't lose and have a moment's sleep is It' so I lost why did it I lost more sleep over your condition than you did. I was waking up in the middle of the night worrying about you and you're like sleeping like a baby I once I decided I was I was tally confident. I can't be confident that how it's going to turn out I was confident that I had all the information I need to make an informed decision. that I had processed it thoughtfully in a way that with the same rigor that I would give to a client and that It was the best option available. What's going to be is what's going to be, but That's what I came to. And with that, How was a case In the span of six months, he went from You should get this looked at at some point too You should put your affairs in order two I can't find any more cancer Hi think that I countounted The idea of instincts and intuition in my work. I lived by But there was an eld to me that discounted it that it wasn't credentialed I didn't bring a Harvard MBA to this