Impact of UK Leadership on Ukraine

This country is less powerful than it was before . It's also triggered this anger at elites, distrust of the governing class, desire to drain the swamp. Another British Prime minister on his way out the door. If you were counting, that is six in ten years . Now the UK is once again looking for a new leader. Will that mean yet another reset of the special relationship with the United States . This Sources and Methods for MPR . I'm Mary Louise Kelly and today is Thursday, june twenty fifth, which means it is Sources and Methods Day, which means we are diving into this week's biggest national security stories with the NPR reporters out there covering them here in DC , with me in the studio and PRPNAGON correspondent Tom Bowman, Hyatt. Good to be here . And making her sources and methods debut, Lauren Freer, our London correspondent, joining us from our bureau at the BBC in London. Hey, hi, Jerryo. Are you in the same studio in London where you have hosted the show from? Yeah. I have hosted the show and I hosted I think it was the fourth episode of this podcast because we were both there covering President Trump's royal visit . And I think we both said the words pomp and pageantry about eighty seven times in our exactly. If we need your autograph on the wall here I'll have to come back and do it. That'd be fun. All right, so let's timestamp. It is just past noon here in Washington, which makes it five PM in London where y'all have had quite a week. This week marks ten years since Britain voted to leave the EU Brexit . And in those ten years , Britain has lived through six prime ministers gearing up now for number seven. I was trying to remember when you took over the London beat, Lauren, like what primeis Mterin were we on? We were on five Rishi Sunak. Okay , it was new. Okay . And now so I've seen the end of Rishi Sunak's term, all of Kirstarmer's term and we're going on the seventh prime minister in ten years, and that looks to be Andy Burnham. Who we're going to talk about in a second, but first, I want to take us all the way back many news cycles ago, all the way back to Monday. The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election . I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question and I accept that answer with good grace . Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love first . That is I will resign as leader of the Labour Party. Okay, so again , that was Monday, that was Kirstarmer outside Ten Downing Street. The residence of the British Prime Minister, a house, people will soon be moving out of , I gather, Lauren, walk us through where you were, how Monday unfolded for you, what this was like to cover. I mean, there's been speculation that he was going to resign. His poll numbers are at a historic low for any prime minister of any party in British history. So it was kind of an only matter of time . And so on Saturday night, I started getting messages like, Hey, this looks imminent . And also on the weekend , his team stopped continuing to insist he would fight, that he would stay . And that was kind of a cue to us that he entered like a period of reflection. I 'm seeing quotes along those lines. He went tock Cershe the country retreat with his wife huddled and he was writing his resignation speech we know now . But the biggest cue is when that podium gets rolled out in front of Ten Down ing Street. So whenever this has happened and we've seen six of them in ten years they bring this podium they bring the speakers out, then they bring the podium out and then we know it's only a matter of time's. going He to walk out that door or she's going to walk out that door and resign. And sure enough, it happened at nine thirty on Monday morning. That's the only time they roll the podium at the prime minister doesn't address the nation from outside Downing Street the way that I don't know the President of the United States does from the White House ? I mean, he gives there is a briefing room inside ten Downing Street, but no, that seems to be where they resign and they have this sort of scary walk out to that podium where all eyes are on them and they're usually clutching their spouse's hand on the way and then they get out there. And in the case of Kirstarmer and several other prime ministers , it was tearful to my fantastic wife Vick who has been a rock by my side through good times and bad. I mean, his voice was emotional. He choked back tears , he thanked his family. I mean, this was a really hard decision for him. Why did he resign? So some reasons you may have heard of, the name Peter Mandelson. He a close friend of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Starmer appointed Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to Washington . Knowing he had this friendship with Epstein, not knowing the extent . He quickly fired him once the extent of that relationship became known, but it was pretty damaging. So that's one reason. But moreover, Starmer just never really connected with voters. He won Labor a landslide majority in parliament two years ago, but his own personal approval ratings were never really high to begin with and then plummeted . He comes off sometimes as a bit wooden. He just wasn't able to convince voters who were hungry for change after fourteen years of budget cuts and austerity under the Conservative Party before him. He wasn't able to convince people that radical change was here or coming. Okay, zip back large before we move on from how this week started and move to where it's gone . Monday, we're talking about the scene outside Downing Street, but there was a split screen happening for Britain's trying to track political events that day . So on one side, Kirstarmer tearfully resigning on the other helicopter above North London. A live stream helicopter footage of his likely successor Andy Burnham on a train from Manchester where he was mayor until a couple days ago streaming down to the capital to take that job . And it was like the OJ Simpson white van on the LA freeway. Anybody who's old enough to remember that I was seeing a tweet from, I want to say it's the economist Washington Bureau Chief who said this is like watching Yav ine Progosion march on Moscow a few years ago Napoleon, right? Like if Napoleon had had live camps and helicopters tracking him, this is what we might have I mean the import attached to this and then at the train station at the train station people were yelling Are you staging a coup? I mean, he was coming down to parliament to be sworn in as the new MP for Maker field. He won a by election last week. Gosh, it feels like a year ago . He won a special election for a vacant seat in parliament last week was coming down to be sworn into parliament , but all of this happened at the same time , and now he actually entered the capital as the likely new prime minister. So Lauren You got on a train a couple days later going the other way to go up to Manchester to hear what people in Andy Burnham's hometown make of all this. What'd they tell you? He was actually born in Liverpool, raised halfway between Liverpool and Manchester, but like Manchester is where he made his name. Incidentally , he's been in parliament before. He served sixteen years in parliament, ran for labor leader twice before . Guess who nominated him in one of those leadership races? Kirstarmer. Yeah. Fall circle buddy , a buddy, a fellow lawmaker of Starmer . But he went back to Manchester to be mayor and that's really where he made his name . Manchester is the birth of theustri Ialnd revolut ion, the sort of birthplace of the working class, and that's the identity that Andy Burnham has. It's also a demographic that in recent years have felt sort of left behind by globalization. And it's a demographic that every politician right now is seeking to tap into and represent . There's a term that people use in Manchester. They say it's Manchesterism . And I met with one of Bernham's advisors when he was mayor. Her name is Rose Marley and she unpacked what this term means Manchester Rism for us is people coming together to effect change , doing things for themselves and having a real can do attitude, that's what the Mancunians would consider Manchesterism. These kind of economic viewpoints, Andy will also talk about it as being an end to neo liberalism , but ultimately it's, the Manchester Bee, the Manchester Beef? Bee. Bees . So this is the thing. I didn't know what it was. You see bees everywhere, symbols of bumblebees on every municipal flower pot , every municipal lamp post , and they're worker bees . And this represents Manchester . And this is what people get tattoos of bumblebees. That's the Manchester identity, the working bees. They work together. I want to land us on just one more question before we change gears Seven prime ministers in a decade, in a decade in a few days , is Britain un governable . Like is anybody in this current climate able to hold on to the Prime Ministership for more than a couple of years Short answer, no , because we're going on seven in ten years. It's no coincidence that ten years ago this week Britons voted for Brexit to leave the European Union. And that set in motion a real contraction of the British economy by one estimate six percent of GDP disappeared. And so that has sort of reverber ated through the country and through the economy and through people's psyche. I mean, this country is less powerful than it was before and less upwardly mobile than it was before . It's also triggered this anger at elites , distrust of the governing class, desire to drain the swamp. I mean, that's something that you guys might be familiar with on your side of the pond. We are going to take a break when we come back, British political uncertainty, what might that mean for the United States and Ukraine and Iran? That's ahead on sources and methods from NPR . Okay, we're back. We're going to keep talking about the United Kingdom and its political turmoil right now, but I want to bring Ukraine into the mix because Lauren, you were telling me the other day it seemed like President Zelensky, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine, that he was in London nearly every week. There was a real relationship between Zelenskyy and Kirstormer and between their countries with Britain sending money for Ukraine to help fight Russia with Kirstarmer on the way out , do we know what the implications of that might be beyond Britain and start with Ukraine? Yeah, I mean, I think Zelenskyy has reason to be nervous. Starmer was really his advocate. And I mentioned how Starmer across as sort of wooden or unable to connect . The exception was Zelensky. I mean he would hug him in front of ten Downing Street. I mean, there was real affinity there and a real loyalty in a sense of responsibility. And I should say it's not just Starmer. I mean, the British establishment really this war is on Europe 's doorstep. And I think the UK is acutely aware of that . Even figures from rival parties, Boris Johnson, former prime minister from the Conservative Party, has written and spoken passionately about the need to support Ukraine . So Starmer's departure does leave a big question mark about whether the sort of trajectory that he had put the UK on in ramping up defense spending, in ramping up its own arms industry will continue or whether it could even accelerate under a new leader. Tom I think likely accelerate. We talked about Birnam, of course, is a big supporter of Ukraine. You know, another name to keep an eye on is Alistair Carnes. He's a labor member from Birmingham. He just stepped down as defense minister for the Armed Services because he said Kirstar isn't spending enough money on defense, and he's not spending it in the right areas . Artificial intelligence, drones. That's his big push. He is also a big supporter of Ukraine. I met him last year. Very impressive guy. I think he would likely come back in government maybe as defense minister. But also it's important to note that Britain and the rest of Europe they've loaned Ukraine ninety billion dollars, number one. And number two , the UK and Ukraine have this drone initiative. They're cranking out tens of thousands of drones for Ukraine , they hope to get to get this one hundred fifty thousand drones by the end of the year. Now the US is talking about a similar initiative. They haven't even started it yet, but Britain and Ukraine are moving forward quickly. And again, getting back to Carnes, his big thing is drones. He said the future of warfare is AI and drones, and Britain isn't doing enough at this point to make that happen . It's so fascinating and it gets at a thread we've tugged on a few times on this podcast about how Ukraine over the four plus years of its war with Russia has evolved from being like the poor child recipient of all the aid to the ones who are setting the pace for everyone else. Right, Lauren raised a good point. This is a huge issue for Europe because Ukraine is on their doorstep, especially Eastern Europe . So there's a great focus on Ukraine, great support for Ukraine, and you're going to see that continue not only in Britain, but throughout Europe as well. Lauren, back to you , back to changing times in Britain, you know, we've been talking about the very warm relationship between Kirstarmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Kind of a different relationship from Kirstarmer and Donald Trump, which like of President Trump's relationships can run hot or cold depending on the hour that you catch him at. But I want to note how much the war in Iran seemed to rock the boat in that relationship. Here's Starmer. This is not our war . We will not be drawn into the conflict . That is not in our national interest . And the most effective way we can support the cost of living in Britain is to push for de escalation in the Middle East and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. So Kirstarmer, that was him speaking back in April, when he was told solid Prime Minister and we didn't know what was coming next, but it is jarring to hear a British Prime Minister talk about, hey, America, that's your war. Nothing to do with us. I mean, historically, Winston Churchill would be turning in his grave . Starmer got actually a huge boost in the polls from that speech. And that is one other point where Starmer really came alive and put down his foot against Trump 's war in Iran in a way that he had never been willing to disagree with Trump before. Mary Louise, as you know, you were over here covering one of Trump's two visits to the UK last summer , Kirstarmer was very careful, has always been very careful not to contradict Trump. And he saw himself as, you know, halfway and he's seen the UK as halfway sort of between Europe, the quote unquote social ist governments of Europe , as Trump might see them, and the U. S. And he sought to use that special relationship to bring Trump on side . The UK under Starmer also deployed King Charles to try to be a Trump whisperer . And that 's one thing that Starmer will be part of his legacy. He did have initial success on that for months . And Trump called him a good friend. And even on news of Starmer's resignation, Trump said, He's a lovely guy. I hate to see him go, but he made mistakes on XYZ. He mentioned what he calls windmills, wind turbines. It's not one of the reasons Starmer is leaving office, but it's something that miffed Trump. Okay, after a short break, you know we can't end this podcast without talking about Iran and the war, so we will check on what the latest is. Plus, we open up our reporters notebooks for Oscent. That's ahead on sources and methods from NPR. We're back with Lauren Freyr and Tom Bowman. And Tom, I was thinking of the many threads I could ask you about regarding the war with Iran, whether the ceasefire will hold or not, whether diplomacy talks will deliver a durable deal or not, whether the U. S. will succeed in its stated goal of reigning in Iran's nuclear program or not, all of those , let's just go straight to the street of Hormuz . Is it open ? It's not open, it's not closed. It's somewhere in the middle, somewhere in the gray area. Now forty ships today have gone through the strait increase. How do we know? This is according to the ship trackers that watch this stuff . About forty ships and mostly they're going through pathway set up by the US that's along Oman , so pretty away from Iran . The U. S. is still working on de mining , but this area has been demined , but they're expanding their demining activities with ships, helicopters, drones, and so forth . But they say we can demine this area in thirty days. I don't think that's likely . Former Navy officers I talk would say is going to take at least a couple of months to make that happen. So we're far from the one hundred and thirty ships per day that we're going through straight away moves before the war started . And also the US says that we're doing it on our own, but also the Brits and the French have said we will take part too . The HMS Dragon is in the Arabian Sea . Kirstormer before he stepped down said the HMS Dragon and also sea drones will take part in this de mining activity. We haven't really seen anything on that yet . So that could happen in the coming weeks. Lauren, what are you hearing about the UK's contribution to all of this? Because Kirstarmer, as we have noted , wanted to stay well away from this war. Wanted to stay well away from the Iran war , but has used the contribution of this HMS dragon as I think a political tool to build goodwill with President Trump . And it's a little bit similar to the contribution by the UK to future peacekeepers in Ukraine. The UK says it will send peacekeepers to Ukraine once hostilities cease. The UK will also help demine the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities cease . So that HMS dragon, I just looked up, the dates, it deployed in early March, it crossed, it passed through the Suez Canal in May , and it's still just hanging out there waiting for one of these ceasefires to last long enough for it to get to work. So it is not exactly racing full steam ahead for the Strait of Hormuz. I think it's sort of motoring maybe I think it's hanging out in the Arabian Sea. There's no sense it's on a course for the Strait of Hormuz or Af an. All right , with that , as always, we will end with Oscent open source intelligence , not secret, yet telling details we stumble on in our reporting. Tom Kikisov. Well, first of all, there's very little information coming out of the Pentagon about the ceasefire, about how the war is going And that's been true for quite some time. The last Pentagon briefing we had was on may fifth, somewhat six weeks ago. And not only are journalists not getting much information, lawmakers aren't getting that much detail about what's going on with demining the way ahead . Also, I learned that the Pentagon is not allowing any embeds. And I've done dozens of embeds that explain an embed. An embed is when a reporter goes out with troops in the field, writes about what they're doing, what their policy is, are things working, not working, sometimes times coming under fire . But there since there's no, you know we can't go anywhere with the troops now because they've stopped all embeds. So you couldn't get on a ship in the an, you can't go to any of the bases in the Middle East. And I'm told you can't even go on training missions now. There are no embeds for training missions. Again, it's very controlled information or lack of information. And it reminds me back before the Iraq War, we had this briefing with this retired general by the name of H al Moore , and I think some of our listeners would remember that name. He made his name in Vietnam, the first major battle the Ayadrang Valley . They made a movie about this. We were soldiers once and young and also a book by the same name . And he met with a group of reporters and he said , every place I went in Vietnam, I took reporters with me because the American people have a right to know what their sons are doing in their name. And I never forgot that. But that's all gone now. I mean, just to underscore why this matters, you must have gone on, I don't know how many embeds in Iraq in A,fghanistan , different places. My wife's from Oregon. We've been married thirty five years. I think I spent more time in Afghanistan than Oregon. Then in Oregon. So what's lost if you can't embed? I mean, you could fly to the Gulf tomorrow if you wanted to. What's lost is a sense of, again, what these troops are doing in our name and also what the policy is, does it work? Is it not working? And when I was in Afghanistan, the best part of my career, by the way, you really got a sense of what was working, what was not working. And the soldiers and marines, they'd be completely honest with you. One guy said, Hey, Tom, this is my third tour in Afghanistan. I don't think these Afghan soldiers are ever going to get their act together . So again, it gives the reporters a real sense of what's going on, not only Pentagon briefings , but in the field with the real soldiers, the grunts to really get a sense of how things are going. That is lost now. Okay, Lauren, you're ursent. Okay, so I'm going to tell you, I think you intelligence wonks know about acronyms, right? I'm going to tell you about some of the subject No , okay, yes. The acronym NPR . Non proliferation. That's what comes to mind for me. In every beat I've had, I work for NPR, and yet up in Manchester this week, everybody's talking about NPR NPR. I'm like, I'm so flattered. It's Northern Powerhouse Rail. It's one of Andy Burnham's key projects to bring more train service to the north of England. Incidentally, in my last beat, there was I lived in India. NPR was the national population register. Horribly confusing, newspaper headlines saying, NPR is doing this and this and I thought it was all about me. It wasn't. Can we get an NPR t shirt from Britain? Absolutely, with a little train on it. There you go. That's a little train. All right, my Osent is I was at this cocktail reception the other night here in DC to mark the occasion of the upcoming twenty twenty six NATO summit in Ankara in July , because that is the kind of crazy nightlife that we have here in DC in the summer months. Have a kirstarmer there. It's his last thing you'll do in office. There were people from the British embassy at this party. There were ambassadors walking around and canopies being passed. It was that type scene. A US senator , specifically Democr,at, Chris Ko ons of Delaware started telling me at this party the importance of snog . So this is my Osen SNOG , which by the way, Lauren has a very specific meaning in Europe and in the UK where you are. Just explain snog in Britain is it's more than a kiss, it's like a full makeout session. It's like a very non platonic kiss. So this is not what Chris Koons was talking about. I'm glad you learned that Snog in his world means Senate NATO Observer Group , a bipartisan group of senators. He is a member. It's actually co chaired currently by Gene Shaheen of New Hampshire and Tom Tellis of North Carolina . And their mission is they monitor NATO and its budget and its military capabilities and they are trying to strengthen transatlantic bonds. So this came up because there is a snog delegation headed to Turkey next month for the NATO summit. Senator Coons will be there. It will be snog in action . So that's my challenge. I will leave you that t shirt. I want that t shirt. That's a better t shirt. You can have a snog cap and a NPR train t shirt. Don't snog any of those senators. All right, that is it for today's episode you, than forking listen. I have been speaking with NPR London correspondent Lauren Freyer and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Thank you. You're welcome. Thank you so much . And a note before we go, you have been hearing me all month long mention newsletters. That would be NPR journalism tailored to your interests right in your inbox , whether you want the latest in pop culture or deep dive investigative reporting, we have a newsletter for you. You can check out the full lineup at npr ot org slash newsletters. I'm Mary Louise Kelly, and we are back next week with another episode of Sources and Methods from NPR