SpaceX IPO and Emerging Token Panic Trends

Today on the AI Daily Brief, this weeknd AI for terrifyingly busy people The AI Daily Brief is aaily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI. Quick note before we get into this episode On Friday evening, as many of us were settling in with our families or watching the first US game at the World Cup, the tides of power and AI shifted in a fairly fundamental way Based on a report from at the time an unnamed party, which later turned out to be Amazon, the US government directed Anthropic to cut off access to all foreign nationals for Fable five and Mythos five in order to ensure compliance with the request, andntroic took the models down entirely for everyone There are many implications of this, not least of which is that the recommendations at the end of this five minute recap episode to go out and try Fable five don't exactly work at the moment. I will be recording a full emergency episode to go out later today on Saturday, june thirteenth However, I did still want to have this five minute recap as I attempt to continue to make this show more accessible for an even wider audience. So enjoy this partial recap of what ended up being an extraordinarily consequential week in AI, and I'll be back soon with the full news about the Anthropic Fable five shutdown All right, friends, welcome back to the AIaily brief Today, we continue our experiment in these hyper fast five minute weekly recaps. I had a lot of positive response last week and for those of you who miss that, the idea of these episodes is two part First, a lot of you have colleagues, friends, family, who don't have time to listen to a whole slew of twenty five or thirty minute episodes in a week, but who do want to know broadly speaking the most important stuff that happened in AI, this is the episode that you can send them Second, even you die hard listeners sometimes have weeks where you're just busy doing, I don't know, real work or sailing around the Mediterranean or something Consider these episodes for you as well Now we kick off today with the biggest story of the week, which happens to also be the biggest release of the week, which is, of course, Claude's Fable five Yes, we finally have a Mythos class model. for the last couple of months ever since the news of Mythos broke and was then confirmed by Anthropic Us of the pub class have just been waiting as big institutions get to check it out through Project Glasswing, eagerly anticipating the day when we too would have the powers of mythos. Well, this week we got them and powers they were indeed All of the benchmarks were obviously massive, but was it actually better Well, aside from the controversy, which we will get to in just a minute, on average, I would say, the vast majority of people that I saw that really dug into Fable found it to be incredibly powerful and a distinct jump up from what was previously available In fact, there was this clever little narrative running around that we'd reached the point where AI was so advanced that unless you were using it for really powerful things, you wouldn't necessarily know the difference Citrini research tweeted, I think we've reached the point where normal people can't really determine whether new models are better than previous ones. Like Fable doesn't seem that much better to me But every one hundred and fifty IQ person I know is like, wow, the singularity came sooner than I thought Now, I think this has a hint of truth to it in that where Fable uniquely shines is super hard things, but I also think that this is kind of wrong too, because in my experience, Fable five is way, way better for the basic things as well It is in my opinion, a much better strategic thinker, and it is also a much better first prrinciples arguer in that it doesn't cowta and isn't as easily manipulable by the person prompting it That makes it a much more valuable thought partner. So if you are doing anything with strategy, even if you are not coding big unwieldy web apps, I think you will find a lot of benefit to Fable five TLDR, I definitely think that if you haven't yet, you should go try Fable five soon In fact, by soon I mean really soon because you only have a limited time to do so That's because Fable five was not only the biggest story and the biggest release of the week, but also the biggest controversy of the week The part that I just alluded to is that Fable five is only available in normal plans until june twenty second. After that, you're going to have to pay for it through the API on a usage basis This certainly continues the trend that we've seen of companies moving to a usage based model instead of a seat based model And so some of the impact of that was dampened by the fact that it wasn't all that unexpected And yet, when it comes to the controversy, that was small potatoes compared to first The fact that there were incredibly stringent guardrails on the thing Biomedical engineer Daria A Newt Mazz wrote, I can't even say hello to Fable, excepted in cognito mode because it knows I'm a biomedical researcher Fable F also launched with data retention policies that said that they could keep conversations for thirty days in ways that basically made every enterprise sit up and say, I don't think so Already, we saw Microsoft limit employee use of Fable five as they figure out what the data retention policies mean for them And yet the biggest deal in the controversy was for sure the secret sabotage for LLM researchers While the approach to the other guardrails around things like biology and chemistry was to explicitly tell the user that it was shifting them back to a previous model like Opus four eight, when it came to certain types of LLM research, Anthropics said that Fable five would nerve its responses without telling the user This led to an uproar the likes of which I've never seen, ultimately leading Anthropic to walk back that policy in less than twenty four hours Now it turns out that what people were really turned off by wasn't just that specific policy, but the realization of just how much power anthropic and frankly, any of these frontier labs really has to control who gets access to the tools of the next stage of the economy In fact, this week, I think we saw the confluence of the three great challenges for AI labs power i. e. the inherent power they have over our economic destiny policy In other words, the choices they make in terms of how they wield that power, and PR in terms of how they communicate that stuff Honestly, Anthropic got all three of them wrong this week Now the one other biggest story sneaking in at the very end of the week was of course, the SpaceX IPO If you were watching mainstream media, the big thing that they wanted to talk about was Elon Musk becoming the world's first triillionaire. But for us over in the AI industry, what we were interested in was the performance and what it might mean for future IPOs Well, on the first day of trading, the stock popped nineteen percent Leading allspring gllobal investments, Robert Grundke to say, it bodes well for the market and for these other IPOs are coming that are going to be quite sizable as well. They clearly priced it right, at least on day one. It should make you optimistic for the markets, especially for growth stocks Now in terms of narrative to watch this week, the big new one was tooken panic We've gone from token maxing token panic in a whiplash inducingly short period of time The specific idea of token panic and one that I think you're going to see coming up a lot more, is the negative market consequences of companies starting to put caps on the amount of AI that their employees can consume. Uber was the first example of this, but just as I was recording this, it broke that Meta was going to be putting those caps on as well This was given voice in a specific research note by Citadel Securities. although as I explained in my Friday episode, What they were saying was quite different than what social media said they were saying. The thing you shouldn't take away from this token panic is some big idea of token demand rolling over The thing you should take away is that there's going to be a lot of push for token efficiency in the foreseeable future with implications for all of us So what should you be watching for next week One big thing is that the first day of trading doesn't really mean anything with an IPO. and when it comes to the implications for the other AI IPOs, I want to see what SpaceX does next week before I really start to make any sort of assessments The other big thing to watch is how openAI responds to Fable. Do we get GPT five point six? Do we get what the Wall Street Journal reported might be coming in significant price cuts? Basically the ball is an opening ice court and everyone's waiting to see what happens Lastly, in terms of what you should try this weekend, here are five tests for Fable five If I were you and I hadn't played with Fable yet, I would test it on one strategy Some sort of big question you're pondering To, some sort of first principles debate where you can see how well it pushes back on you without being just subservient to your opinion. Three and four, I would test it on research and writing some tasks that actually come from your normal work experience And five, yes, I would try to find some big old coodating project to really see how much farther it can go in a single shot Fable five has certainly reignited my excitement for a number of different projects because it gets much closer to completion than any of the previous models before So friends, that's going to do it for this week. I hope you are heading into a beautiful early summer weekend, watching the World Cup or bing Widows Bay in anticipation of this week's final. but for now, that's going to do it for the AI Daily brief. Appreciate you listening or watching as always, and until next time peace.