Challenges Facing a Potential Burnham Premiership

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Tune in on Ted Talks Daily, wherever you listen to podcasts ACast helps creators launch, grow, and monetize their podcasts everywhere A Cast Duck My fear is that he's also in a long line Recent British prime ministers Politicians mediocre disposition. And over Little experience. and little ability to make them so who felt they could be prrime Minister And turned out they weren't up to This is the Andrew Neil Report with me Andrew Neil. and it's an Andrew Neil report special on the Makerfield B election, the crucial b election which took place in Britain on Thursday a constituency just north of Manchester and the north west of the UK overver of England and just south of Wigan Let me try and put what happened into some kind of international perspective throughout the deemocratic world The mainstream center right and centre left parties, those parties that have largely governed us almost since the end of the Second World War and The various democracies They've been desperately trying to find ways to see off the populace left and the populous rightite, particularly the populous right, which is seen is an even bigger danger than the populous left And almost nowhere so far have they succeeded. Indeed, in America, the mainstream Republicans have pretty much given up the ghost and accept that their Republican partarty is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Donald Trump and his AGa movement. in the Democrats, the U.S Democrats, they the moderates, the mainstream there They've held on to the positions of power, but they are under now threat from a growing left wing of the Democrat Party, look at the new mayor of New York self described deemocratic socialist time we see that the left of the Democrats Sving to make gains fromrom New York to Washington to California. In Europe France, which has long had a populist right party which hasn't gone away indeed grown in strength The prospect now for the next presidential elections and they' in just a year's time, may twenty twenty seven is that the center right In the center left may not even be part of that presidential election that it willll be the populist hard right in the shape of the national rally and the populist hard left. In this shape of Jean Luc Mill and Chan, they'll be the two fighting it out in the final round in May of twenty twenty seven. Germany the AFD, which is a very hard right party, that now clearly leads the polls ahead, not just of the center right Christian Democrats But ahead of the center left social Democrats as well. And again, the Christian Democrats, social Democrats basically run Germany since it emerges as a democracy from the rubble of the Second World War And in Australia, I was in Australia in October of last year, I warned them of this danger of the center right and the center left being eclipsed. They didn't think it was going to affect them Well, that was less than a year ago and now Pauline Hansen's one nation partarty, which is a kind of nativist right wing party. Some people describe it the as her as the Nal Farage of Australia. Well It's now outpulling not just the center right coalition parties But it's outalling The Center left Labour Government party as well So That is why There's a struggle going on as these mainstream parties try to find an antidote And of course, in Britain The Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage used to be known as UKIib, It has been leading in the polls against the mainstream left and right well for at least eighty months now. So it's been a struggle for the mainstream partyies, Labour and conservatives. They used to dominate British politics They've been down around twenty percent in the polls Now the significance of the Makerfield bie election is that labor Now thinks it's found an antidote to the populous right to the reform UK Nigel Fage party And that antidote, that holy grall. that it now thinks it has is Andy Berham Andy Burnham, the labor candidate in Makerfield won. a resounding victory in the mic offield by election, betteret than even his people thought. He took fifty five percent of the vote. just far better than Labor did in the twenty twenty four election. He sw reform into a poor second place The right wing vote, which was split between reform and restore and even more right wing parties and reform evenven had these two votes together, they came nowhere near. Andy Burnhams fifty five percent He did this in a constituency which had voted strongly for Brexit in the referendum in twenty sixteen And in the local elections only last month reform swept that constituency, the local seats there and had a lead overver labor. of twenty percent So you can see why labor is thinking, huh? It's been difficult, but now we've got the answer. It's Andy Burnham He's the one that's seen off the populous right. He's made this a safe leather seat. once more. He's the one that can do the same. nationally And this is likely to propel Andy Burnham to be the next Prime Minister. of the United Kingdom. and to make it difficult well nowigh possible for Kia Starmer, the current Pime Minister hold on. which you see. These are matters for Westminster politics. I want to try Stand back a bit though and suggest that it's not quite as simple. as Labour thinks The labor that Andy Burnham not quite be the Messiah. from Manchester that they think he is and that it may be more difficult to replicate the result of makeup makeer field on a national scale And let me give you an example. There was another b election in Britain. on Thursday too. was in Aberdeen South up in the north East of Scotland, But where the Tories, the Conservatives had is just a resounding victory in Aberdeen South as Andy Burnham had in Makerfield. They beat the SNP fififty percent share of the vote So the SNPs twenty nine percent share of the ve. Yes, the Tories in Scotland not noticeably Try country quuite some time now But it was all to do with North Sea oil The Aberdeen economy has been strong and N see oil For three, four decades now It's winding down an theSNP Along with labor has seemed reluctant to continue to exploit The oil and gas fields of the North Sea Jories When they were in power, yes. Now they're in opposition, no. and they benefited from that But I would suggest that the reason they did well in Aberdeen South was for very local factors and that the same and that it cannot be replicated on a national scale and that labor equally will find Andy Burnhams inccredible victory in Mcerfield Much harder to replicate on a national scale. That doesn't mean to say that Mr. Burden isn't going to be the next prrime Minister. Everybody seems to think he will be You know, I think he's unstoppable and that he will be maybe indeed in the next couple of weeks, given the scale of his victory. We shall see. That's where all this closer to Westminster pine on The wider question is whether is that even if labor does change Will it have done enough to see off the populace left or the right. Is he really The holy grail when it comes to seeing off in Britain reform, UK in particular. Has Labour done No other mainstream Center lefte or center right party has so far succeeded in doing Finding the antidote So the populace And I have to say, I'm not so sure. I'm not so sure because I think to use the Latin phrase Mcerfield was really suey generous. It was really a one off. It was unique Why do I say that? I say that because It was unique But everybody knew Andy Berham was fighting this by election in the UK as a stepping stone to challenge Ko Starmer as prrime Minister. If you hated reform I wanted to stop them You' voted for antibono A eighteen K Starmer Andenra wanted to move him as Prime Minister. You voted for Andy Burnham. Either way, you voted for Andy Burnham, it explains why he got fifty five percent of the vad. He got all the left wing The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, both to the left between them barely got one percent of the vote. He swept up all the left of the vote. and I think These are conditions unique to that Makerfield blection They won't exist anywhere else in the country. cannot Do it anywhere else. and great as the victory was I think it's a big mistake to think, ah, this is the shape of things to come I also say that because My great fear is that Andy Burnham he's a decent, he's a likeable chap He speaks human, he speaks human with a Northern accent. And he can relate to people in a way that killed armor can't H But the reason why I've got toas is that my fear is that he's also in a long line of recent British prrime mininisters Politicians of mediocre disposition and of Little experience and little ability to make them so who felt they could be prime Minister and turned out they weren't up to it. T resasona May Boris Johns This trusts a stara and now perhaps Andy Berno this group in recent time of British politicians who thought they had it Inem to be A prime mininister It turned out they didn't. explains why in the past ten years The United Kingdom has had six and now with Burnham Probably seven prime mininisters Seven prime mininisters in ten years Whereas in the previous thirty seven years We had a total of five. Prime minister Five and thirty seven years. Vessies seeven in ten years. It's a real sign that Britain's got into the habit of picking people to be Prime Minister or allowing people to rise to become Prime Minister They just don't have it in them to be Prime Minister And there's a lot to suggest that Andy Berham will be in that same category I'm Greg Richard. It is hot outside and now it's time to cool down. At PC Richard and Sun, we have the largest selection of air conditioners all at the guaranteed lowest prices. Come see our knowledgeable salespeople to help get you the right air conditioner today H Being mayayor of Manchester very limited powers and a budget of three billion pounds a year. really doesn't quite Get you into conditions. be Prime Minister country with immense power and the one point four Australian and you Budget Andy Burnham has railed against forty years of neol liberalism. As he calls it. Im not quite sure what he means by that I think he probably just means Anti Thatcher because you know, Mrs Thatcher was not that popular in the North. so ust make out that it's all done to Margaret. It's all Margaret, That''s fault. forortty years of neoliberalism What he doesn't say is that for sixteen of these forty years, He was at the heart of what he now calls that neoliberal project. And GD ended up As a cabinet minister in the previous Labour government Three different cabinet posts over three years And yet in these three positions Since it was three posts in three years He barely touched the sides. So it's not clear that Andy Burnham really has it in them. to be an improvement on the Litany, the parade of mediocrates They'd have Call it been in recent years our prime Minister Now one of the things that has brought cissed armor down is that it's no clear that when he came to power on a landslide Two years ago, july twenty twenty four He was totally unprepared for power He just hadn't done the homework He didn't develop the policies that were required. he had He was he was simply swept apart on a wave of dislike. or was hatred for the Tories Time to get rid of them and he got in And he was quickly rumbled. Because when he faced the immense problems, that the country has didn't have the policies. he didn't have the blueprints. he didn't have the agenda to do so. And that has been the undoing of Well, let me tell you Andy Burnham is even less prepared in state cased armor He is no blueprint, he is no agenda He has no distinctive policies that will change things for the better When he was elected in the early hours of a Friday morning He gave his victory speech and he talked a lot about change. this was a turning point. Politics as usual couldn't go on and so on. But we have no idea what he means by change When he has outlined some policies or when he's takaking a stab at policies, whether it's a the debt markets or welfare for migrants or a particular thing about women born in the nineteen fifties and their pension Here's quickly down a uter He's quickly changed. So we' really no Where he stands We don't know what he thinks about the great geopolitical issues of our time we don't know what he thinks aboutb how serious the Russian threat is What's his attitude to Trump's war in Iran, which has ended in such a shambles. What's his attitude towards British defense spending which is falling behind The rest of NATO and which is leaving us as an also rnd in the rearmament of Europe. We know none of that on domestic policy He said he would actually stick to the existing government's fiscal rules and that he would not depart too much from the twenty twenty four election manifesto on which Labor won a landslide. probablyrobably seeing that to counter any arguments that When he's the new prrime mininister he should call an election and get his own mandate. He doesn't say he certainly doesn't want to do that. though when the Torriies changeed Prime Minister, naturally, he called for that But if you stick into these rules, the fiscal rules, which control how much as a nation we borrow, how much we tax, and how much we spend And if he's broadly sticking to the labor manifesto two years ago How much changey change can there be if he's going to do that. And I think that leads also to doubts about whether he can be much of a change bank I was literally getting pennies using Wealthfront. Judging There's this much that I'm getting in interest and I didn't have to do anything. Clients like Angela earn up to four point two percent APY on their cash with the Wealthfront cash account. Get started at wealthfront dot com Cliients paid one thousand dollars for their testimonial creating a conflict of interest outces. point three percent base API as of janu thirieth twenty six is representative viable earn on funds swep to programs.er point five percent new clients whos for three months up to one hundred fifty thousand dollars. Direct deosit one thousand dollars a month fund invest account for a point fivecent incase cash account offered by wealthfont broerage LL mem F S ICn in a It'll be difficult for him because he has suggested we need a massive expansion of social housing Council housing they call in Britain, public housing in the United States. Fine We've not done a lot of that In recent years But whereere's the money going to come from? It's tens of billions. Ned it C can't do that. You're sticking to the existing Fiscal Rose, He has also talked about the need to improve social care all incoming Prime mininisters do that. a national social care service partarticularly for older people in retire Good idea We've held it before Again, tens of billions, where's it coming from So there's a great risk No long after he becomes Prime Minister, it turns out that Andy Berham Isn't that different from Kiss Armor Yes, he'll be less robotic. Yes, he'll even be a bit more articulate. Yes, he'll be more human Will the possibility the policies be that different, I'm not so sure. And if he tries for them to be that different will The bond markets have their say Will the people we borrow from and you'll need to borrow more or increase taxes or do both willill They haveave their say and stop him from doing so. And where's this Praetorian guard? Where are the best and the brightest? They're going to come in with them to make the change that he says is so necessary Ed Milliband is Chancellor Really Louise Haig, who had to resign from Starm's government. Really? Lizerandi The culture secretary who's still in the government, really? Pase He hasn't. We don't even know who would populate