Gerrymandering and Future Political Outlook

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From the goals and thegory to the politics and the problems of the World Cup, if you want soccer analysis from a podcast that's been over analyysing the game for more than twenty years, then this is it. Join me, Max Rushon, and our expert team of soccer journalists every day of the tournament, canan England end sixty years of hurt? or will this be another year of falling just short Probably World Cup Daily, listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch full episodes on YouTube There are four months left. to what could well turn out to be the most historic election in our lifetime It could unleash and already unleashed Donald Trump Or it could close it down. How much wind is against coal at this point And if the wind is against Donald Trump as it seems now that it is. Th it's over. Donald Trump's capacity to shoot himself in the foot would never be underestimated. It would seem now that he has gone down the path to do almost everything to undermine the Republicans Michael. Joanna. Happy fourth. What are you doing for july the fourth You know, I live in the Hamptons so virtually every day is July Please, it's not every day as two hundred and fifty years of American independence. As you know, I think nothing of import happened that day You know, I It's getting my head around too. I mean, frankly, I'm still in two hundred because I remember that well nineteen seventy six. You toallps. Yes, guess where I saw that from. Wow. Trade Center. The World Trade Center. the wholees landscape of New York was different. Y So anyway, I haven't caught up to two hundred and fifty yet Itich seems an arbitrary number. Well, and who would have known fifty years ago because Donald Trump was on the scene then in New York, right? that he would be president for second time running. J justust coming on the scene, actually Okay, that was Both were just coming on the scene. We both and I, you know, and I saw him on the scene after that quite often Right. I mean, in fact, you could not for a for quite a long period go out in New York at night without seeing them And he saw you with your beautiful hair that we have had so many comments on since since we shared the photo of your magnificent hair when you were student body president All right, so we've got the midterms coming up It looks like the wind is against Trump of. Well, let let let's frame this, you know in with with more More graffy toss. I mean, there are four months left. to what could well turn out to be the most historic election in our lifetime Um And it could go either way. It really unleashes Donald Trump, could unleash could unleash an already unleashed Donald Trump Or it could close it down, forget it, Donald Trump over done with just clean up the' over. It's full lame duck. Donald Trump goes full lame duck All right, where do we begin? Do we want to think about the races that really are tight? No, I think do we want to take a bigger picture I think bigger picture I think that there is really only I mean mean, there's a central thing that matters here and it's It's that kind of psychological factor, how How much wind is against home at this point And if the wind is against Donald Trump as it seemems now that it is that it is Um then it's then it's over. thenen it doesn't matter that actually all every every individual race matters significantly less and it just means that the wave do not carry is going to carry everybody carry all of the Democrats into Congress and effectively Donald Trump out of Whash is Donald Trump's candidates away U And that could very well Um I think it's absolutely poised. I think he has after this This what will then be almost two years of Donald Trump, he has run from any political in any political context completely irresponsible, pollutant, let's not for policy forget democracy, just from a political point of view He has done It has been completely irresponsible. It has as though been designed to alienate people So So he's made it all about himself, which is actually one of the criticisms that Obama got when he was in office that he didn't do enough to support the party that he was very much a lone wolf candidate different kind of lonewolf, but I can't imagine anything worse right now than being a Republican Congressperson hoping to get back into office with this man as the head of the party and as president. He's done nothing to help anybody get back into office. He's only served to undermine them and to serve up candidates who have a significantly diminish chance of winning and therefore supporting the partarties majorities which which It would seem by every indication that they will lose their majority in Congress and every day they seem to have a better chance of losing their majority. Except for except for and I' going to antagonize everybody watching and every listening everybody listening by saying this except that the opposition is The opposition is Michael. The Democrats The Democrats. do of and cannot get out of their way Absolutely. Before even going that, I just want to get the fundamentals here And the first fundamental is the wave. It just is whatever is everybody, if the thing in everybody's head is that we are tired of Donald Trump. We're tired of the drama, we're tired of the rudeness, the kind of chaos of it all, the unpleasantness of it all. But then the next, so that's one fundamental The next fundamental is turnout Mhm. Um I mean, all elections, that's That is the That's it I mean, if you don't turn out your people or if your people don't don't turn themselves out because they're not motivated You're screwed Now right now it would seem and all of the Um all of the races that we've seen, the primary races or the races to fill empty seats have shown enormous turnout for the Democrats. The Democrats appear to be uniquely motivated. And the Republicans, frankly, they appear to be depressed. embarrassed. I think of all of those things. And they're feeling it in their pocketbooks. They're feeling it at their checkout Hey, it's Ry Reynolds from Mit Mobile. Now, I was looking for fun ways to tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited preremium wireless for fifteen dollars a month is back So I thought it would be fun if we made fifteen dollars bills, but it turns out That's very illegal. So there goes my big idea for the commercial. Give it a try at mintmobile d. com slash switch. Upront payment of forty dollars for three mons, ninety dollars for six months or one hundred eighty dollars for twel month plan reired fifteen dollars month equalent taxes extra. initial plan term only, greater than fifty gigabyes me slow netork busy t. Yeah, no. I mean, I mean And we should just run down the the the issues that are going to be top of mind. So it is a top of mind issue. Is there the wave The wave is dictated by what is top of mind. Okay, so top of mind, it's the economy stupid Um inflation Donald Trump has said he doesn't care about, but everything feels Well there are two. it's the economy and it'sonald Trump Okay, thoseose are those are the two the two Which do you think's most important at this point Um, probablyably don't you know, that's that's the that's the motivator. And if he is blamed you can get a double whack out of this is he is if he is blamed not only for being Donald Trump blamed for the economy. And I think that's what we're looking at. But as you say And this is truly one of the interesting things to me, almost more interesting than Donald Trump because we know where that is. is the Democrats, their incredible ability to fuck this up So and You know, I mean, the Democrats basically, they only have those those ose those things to run on too. right They're running on Donald Trump. Yeah and they're running on the economy. Not that they have any idea how to fix the is. Well, they're running on affordability, right? So the kind of amorphous sense that everything's too expensive So they're running on not the Donald Trump. And they can and because unlesss are they are the party out of office. So they go into a midterm election with the expectation they will do considerably better than the Republicans. That's historically true That's almost s there's little way around that. Ecept for Joe Biden. interesterestingly, Joe Biden did so well at the midterms in his last, you know, last president we had, which unfortunately set him up to think that he would then win in the general election should have been the moment when he stepped aside and said ono the next Yes, what he did less poorly than it was expected Okay, but he still did fine. And but there's an also another point here, which is important is that the Trump Republicans do appreciably when Donald Trump is not a candidate So it's a kind of a mixed thing. We're running against Donald Trump U and that's a that's a major issue But in fact, we would be the Republicans would be helped or have historically over the last ten years, been helped when Donald Trump is a candidate So what would be inside his head if he loses bigly in the midterms? Does he take this personally? or does he just deny it and say, all it's He just he just denies it to somebody else. Okay makes it his issue. Okay. And I mean, and you can actually kind of get inside his head and That's what he's doing, that he is now undermining the Republicans in order to pererhaps blame it on them to reinforce the fact that they can't do anything if he's not running Interesting. So he's in a bit of a double bind. But get back to the Democrats just a second because I am just amazed, frustrated Um furious as so many Democrats are they screw it up Cstant Why is that There is just something so relelentlessly Let me answer my own question. I thought you might go on. Relentlessly phony seeming about them. Um I mean, it it's as though no word out of their mouth is a genuine word. It's as though it's all by focus group in the head It's all, you know, I mean, somebody like like, you know, you know, this woman, Molly John Fast who the Democrats for some reason pushed out in the media never had one original thought ever just a kind of cotton mouth constantly echoing what what you're supposed to say, trying to anticipate nervously what you're supposed to say. Okay, well, what are her talking points? What are the democratic because I don't feel like this. I have spent quite a lot of time over the last few months interviewing lots of Democratic candidates and Congress, men and women I'm increasingly impressed by how serious they are, how disciplined they are. Many of them come out of the military and they seem mission oriented to win. Tell me what the mission is. the mission other than m is to win. What The mission is to win the constituency? Tell me an original idea Well, Republicans are full of y original idea. Well I think I think the original idea is And it's not an original idea. It's James Carvill and the Clinton thing. It's the economy stupid. It's just now called affordability. and it's about m. they just changed the name of an old idea. But at least it had to be with heaven and no demonstrable abilities. to actually fix the economy I mean, Joe Biden they do have a plan to fix the economy. It would be hardly to tax the rich, which of which you would be one. Um I mean, I think it's I mean I'm being slightly fstigious But I don't agree with you. I don't also actually about the And also the Democrats that you have been talking to, by the way are the Democrats who are do not seem to be ascendant at this point. You haven't James Talorico, he's totally in ascendant. I knowt have yetat. You know, Democratic socialists. I don't see them coming on this this table. I don't see you talking to what's the name of that woman who is just just who's going to defeat the entire Republican party. Chevalier, you haven't interviewed any of the Democratic socialists or whatever they. Well, Graam Platner is running on a progressive a platform Winfield Graham Platner. Yes, prorogressive You like Graham Platner? I do like Graham Platinner. I think he's a sort of versus Susan Collins. Susan Collins, we've said this before. Susan Collins is the an. Okay. I you ved against the high demand. You don't want to know I got it. You're Co. You're a Democrat. Molly No, I'm pro, I'm pro Wen having choice over their own bodies and'm pro women having options if they get pregnant If that's a Democrat position, then I'm a Democrat It's a lot of Republican women's positions too. and Susan Collins made that less possible. Would I rather have Graham Platner in Maine? Yes, I would. Reese Witherspoon here checking into my favorite hotel in Paris. Bourjour Bjour. I'm traveling with my Wells Bargo autograph journey card, so I earn rewards wherever I book travel fiveive times points with hotels, four times with airlines, three times on restaurants and other travel, and one point on other purchases Pheews, that was a lot. I need to lie down. Is the room ready Visit wellsfargo d. com slash autograph journey. Terms applying. You know, I would be, I mean He's been there enough time, enough, enough now. These jobs should have, I think there should be term limits. The president is You know, term limited.. Yes Nevertheless, the contrast here and I have no, I don't know who should who people in Maine should vote for and I assume and I hope And I hope it's a Republican. It turns into a Democratic Senate. Nevertheless, you have Susan Collins, is who is a professional who has done this job, who knows how to do this job, who has who has been elected who is viewed enormously favorable by her constituency. And then you have someone who who's just a wild card. This is what we know about Graem Platner. Nothing. He is a wild card. He has And there's all kinds of indications that he is up A serious wild card So if you want to vote for that, this is what you know U and it is someone who has who has in certainly demonstrated their professionalism And this is someone n' But this is exactly what got Donald Trump elected. People don't want professional politicians anymore. They see them feathering their nests, they see them lookingooking out for themselves. Yeah. Do you hear what you're saying? That's what that's what got us Donald Trump So we're going apply that same logic to Graham Platner. Okay, well, that's a good argument. Okay, well argued. I arued myself into a corner there. Okay, I can see that. Nevertheless, I think it's time for fresh blood. Ed Markey I don't know I don't even know what that means fresh blood. I think it means people who haven't been in Congress or Senate for fifty years. Well, that's most of the people in the country You know, that means anybody off the street qualifies for fresh blood. And a lot of these people no awful to run. We have, you know, Chevalier, you know grad student, grad student, grad student, Chevalier going to Washington Well, that's because you got the endorsement of Mam Danny, right? Yeah, no. I mean, Mum Danni himself. Yeah, no, mean. Well, yeah, I'm just always do that people are constantly pointing it out. therere like Michael says yes, Th then he says no, then he clearing it's a clearing of palate cleanser of and trying to acknowledge that these things are Nuance are complicated, but nevertheless, at the same time, Mum Donnie, who is also is a person without a job, without experience U you know, a There is Well thes is no logic that would have made him the mayor. and I'm not saying he's not going to be a good mayor and he hasn't had a H up had a really good good good runs since his election Um Come on. Well part of this is who you're running against, right? Mamdani was running against Curtis Sleer. who's an eccentric on the New York scene and nobody thinks could do anything. And Andrew Cuomo who'd resigned from being governor Um after being accused by multiple women of sexual harassment and had been seen as an incredible opportunist over COVID when he accepted five million dollars to write a book on American leadership Yeah which he made his staff do apparently. Nobody likes Nobody lik me Andrew Cuomo. Of the three of them. me, I always lied them. His time had been and gone I get it. I get it. I get it. Anyway, let's go on midterms. Wh wins? Wh loses I think it's too early to know whether or not Trump is going to pull something out of the hat or whether or not people are say over Donald Trump that whatever he pulls out of that. Well, we have a couple of things he could get shot at again. Remember how helpful that was to him, the Buter of Pennsylvania moment? Totally. And there is the thing about, you know, what everyone and everyone who works for Donald Trump almost immediately caution you And we' say You know, remember, it's Donald Trump. right. And somehow, I mean, we're here ten years later. How did this happen and he has He has This remarkable, first thing he has remarkable lucks And then he has that one gift No other part he has a gift A gift greater than any other politician, which is the gift to be able to command attention Right. So what an attention And there are there are four months and Four months is both a very short period of time. I mean it's a very short period of time to pull prices down. It's a very short period of time to fix the economy. It's a very short period of time in which you're trusting that people are not going to remember this catastrophic and ludicrous war in Iran. But on the other hand, it's four months in which anything can happen. Well, and he may also now he's reduced his messaging. It's as if he started the war and he didn't quite know what he was doing. He's now got the message for the war you know four months in, which is Iran must not have a nuclear weapon. And now you hear people out in focus groups on voxpops and things saying, well, you know, I know the price of gas is up, but Iran must not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon And you're like, o, the messaging might be getting through. No again, on that other thing that Trump Give. Simplify and repeat. Simplify andpeat, even if it's completely un Democrats pllicate and digress Um, well Do we want to look at specific races? I mean, we've talked about. No no, no, we've got Maine and Texas in the Senate are the two really interesting races. So Maine, let's just so Maine is now. is now inc incredibly close. I mean Platinner is would seem to have a slight advantage at this point over Collins Well, and I do think there's a favorability to new candidates versus old I really do and I think there'll be you know, clearly a ton of money flooding into me I think his was the most expensive primary No. I mean, I mean, I think it is and I think he certainly could win I think we have a bet on this. I tend to think that he will you know, screw it up. But um And I tend to think also also, you know, there's a reason these people I'm like Susan Colls and win again and again and again because they know something, they understand something about their constituenents. So I'm not saying she's not a formidable opponent. Clearly she is, but I just think he'll win we will'll see, we've got money on it. What have we got on? Whatever. An inside Trump's head mug Inoeyable Um, but then, but then the more Perhaps the more interesting race because they're ne neither of them are incumbents. Y. So it's complete' Texas Yeah. And it's Texas Well, it's Texas, so it's eccentric, and Donald Trump has Well, Texas is not that eccentric. It is actually reliably Republican and has been for talk the better part of twenty years now So U So Talarico is it would be extraordinary if he wins. and he may win. so it may be Extraordinary Met dejulio Nespera tmina Operaco Tempo Ge Mundo Mes presrespondero Al Gamadoinolo unospoos Garan la galaserroanjosllol Ganesto Operaco T boys, Cado Sidos, Martieta deculio Port T Mundo in peacock Well, and extraordinary because Donald Trump has really put his thumb or tried to put his thumb on the scale by supporting Ken Paxton over the incumbent John Cornyan uh, who Actually, there wasn't incumbent who is the word scooped out of the way by Donald Trump who has found a character very much like himself who's been impeached. He was the former AG biblical scale divorce and a brilliance also like Trump of commanding attention. And being shameless, utterly shameless So' whichich is why Talarico has a chance here because he's running against Ken Pax. And he's popular in the state. He's been a state senator for some time. He's a former teacher. He's training to be a minister and he has a very mild manner and he talks about wanting to repair the culture that he says as you know, but w I wonder if that's if that's his if that's his strong card. I think the strong card is Ken Paxton. but It may be clelearly his card is Kemaxed. do you actually want this guy representing you? He seems to be an alleged crook. Um He's also very mild mannered and whether or not he can H suuggest to people that he knows what to do for the economy. I don't mild mannered in politics in twenty twenty six is not necessarily a calling card. Well, unless it's the big switcheroo and the pendulum has moved and you know Unless Light wide legged pants mild is back. in which case your friend Andy Bashir, might stand a chance in twenty twenty eight because he's super mild. He's like craft cheese slice. No, if you think I mean, would that would be great news if we all if this all went back to boring And then Andy Bir is really the poster Tump And Bashir, again, taking a strraay in our conversation. I think he took a straay last time and he's getting another one this time. So the other So those are the Senate races. let me let's talkough inside Trump's head if Ken Pxton loses What does he And I can't really figure this out How does? I mean, clearly Well, he will clearly blameame John Cornan Somehow Clearly Trump is responsible for this. Ken Paxson does not exist without Donald Trump. And if they lose Texas Which then may mean they lose the Senateenate How does he come back from that? How does he How does he create a justification. Who does he blame for that? I don't think he'll blame the Republican senators. He's going blame John Thune, He's going to blame John Cornyn, the outgoing senator that he primaried. I yeah, but that doesn't. I mean, there's got to be mean, he's good at blaming This doesn't seem even Even for Donald Trump, this seems like a bridge too far. No, no, no, there is no such phrase even for Donald Trump. But how can you even say that out loud? You know there is a bridge fther You know there is a bridge further. All right, so that's the Senate race. So Maine and Texas, very much in play, incredibly tight, very exciting races. This is like the playoffs at this point so exciting. It's like. The Democrats need to win four seats in the Senate. They need to not lose any seats and win four seats. That that's That is what into the do order. That needs the the the the wind that win the hurricane against Trump. Right. So they need to win four seats out of a hundred, right? The house is much more interesting because there's probably thirty to forty seats in play. and two of them are local, which are quite interesting Local for us. Local for us our audience. Yes, notot for our audience. sorry about that veryer self absved. Well, let's let's do the one that's that's that's so eccentric I think I think it would appeal to anyone anywhere. No it's a fascinating story. Tom Keene in New Jersey. rightight? Who has missed a hundred, I'm going to say that one more time, a hundred votes because he just disappeared. Well, he's disappeared. It's not it's not even that. I mean, some you know, there are occasions when when u When a member of Congress gets sick and there's a much discussion about about that person's health and what's going on and And a certain sympathy is engendered on that basis. Right Be everybody wants to be empathetic to someone who's Cine Junior, who is the son of a former governor of New Jersey, has just disappeared. Literally. no one has known where he is, what he's what is going on, what his health issue? He said there's a health issue. No one knows what that is. Is he dying? Is he Is he something else? This has been absolutely opaque, a mystery, almost as though as though it was set up to be a mystery and then there would be a reveal a mystery of the missing congongressman. lastast Tuesday, he returned to Congress and then that was his reveal what was up. He was suffering from depression I would be depressed too if I were a Republican that Trump. In other words, that he was Um, get mental health issues I was going to say that where where was Tom Kane? He was in the loononey bin I don't think you call it that anymore. No, I'm sure you don't. I'm sure you're going to take this out No, I'm not going to take it out. Okay. That is I mean, that also prompts the question, okay, so you couldn't have told people this? Right, I don't understand why they didn't tell people because first of all Well, is I mean mean, one of the reasons you don't tell people is that you do consider it still the loononey bin, which we don't consider that anymore. And it's just a health issue that you're addressing. R. I mean, but obviously they've turned this into some Well, they've now turned it into something because the minute you don't tell anybody something, nature abours a vacuum. It's filled with all sorts of conspiracy theories Especially online. So he was depressed. He went into an institution to have some help. There's no shame in that. peopleeople do it all the time. Actually it's one of the good things that Senator Fetterman has talked about this thing of feeling depressed. though he was depressed post stroke and he has other issues in office, but it shouldn't be an issue of shame by not admitting to it in that kind of a role. Alas you draw attention to it. And also he missed a hundred votes and nobody understood why At any rate, he is being Um a seememingly very eligible Democrat is running against him. Yes, whoo is that?' Rebecca Bennet, isn't it Right. and she's, you know, She's phenomenal. She's a helicopter pilot. I mean, these young military candidates, well Let me just stop you there to She's a helicopter pilot. I know.'s let's Does this mean Luren Sanchez is going to run for Repeat that. She's a helicopter pilot who wants to go to Congress. Be a helicopter pilot and being in Congress. There is no crossover in Experience, skill sets temperament Um And anything else. These are two I think you have to be quite calm to be a helicopter pilot, don't you? Be what if you hit turbulence I don't know. I'm sure you've never met a helicopter pilot. You have no idea. I think there's this very interesting generation of military Um Mikey Sherroll is another one, helicopter pilots stormed into the governorship. Okay, you're talking and I don't and I don't disagree, but when you talk about this new generation, you also have to talk about this other other part of the new generation of Democrats who will probably be complicate things for the Democrats, which is these Mamani group of Democratic socialists. who are who are first thing far left and and against Israel. So that really, I mean, the other with the helicopter pilots and the military people, that's that's That's That's from one piece of the Democratic game book play. They're largely moder book And they're they're all moderates. As S good example. E veering toward the conservative side of the of the liberal agenda And then you have the exact opposite people who are not moderates people who are Um D. represent an altogether new direction for the Democratic Party. Well, and they're sort of they've inherited the mantle from Mittens's Bernie Saunders Ver much so. And I mean, he is. so it's just not it's not it's the combination of M Donny and Bernie Sanders and AOC and AOC. So and this is a This is This may be or this is a question that we will see if this is if this is u, it Which way this is going that this is the ascendant group of the Democratic Party. I mean, that's the fear of a lot of people and it's the hope of the Republicans When it's time to scale your business, it's time for Shopify. getet everything you need to grow the way you want Like all the way. Stack more sales with the best converting checkout on the planet. Track your chhingings from every channel, Ride in one spot, and turn real time reporting into big time opportunities. Take your business to a whole new level Switch to Shopify Start your free trial today But I think locally It's not I mean, the primaries are over now, right? So that sort of civil war going on in the Democratic Party has sorted itself out for the mid terms. I don't think I don't think that that's true at all. I think this will become the issue against Democrats, that the one of the issues that the Republicans will pursue. Chevalier, Chevalier We're going to come to know we barely know this name now. We are going to come this is going to be the best known name in America the grad student chehevalier. becausecause her platform is essentially Gaza that and she said all kinds of, I mean, there's a whole litany of social media, a social media trail of things that that that many people in the country might consider reprehensible. So do you think that she will lose the seat for the Democrats? I mean, it's a pretty safe deemocratic seat. No, she will probably she will probably win that seat, but she but she or her presence and the other people are who she will come to symbolize might well damage prospects for other democrs especially swing situations I wonder if people will just vote locally this time around though Well, I I mean, that's a that's a that's a hard thing to say because Because in effect, the Democrats are asking people to vote nationally. This is against Trump We are against Trump Um So we're the Democrats are trying to nationalize this election. That's where a wave, a blue wave comes from, a blue tsunami comes from So And then But then alsoso asking them to forget about Chevalier. It's not really And I think in the that the Republicans are going to come storming back. Civalie, Cvali. Right. But, you know, it's I I mean, I don't I mean, you're going to come back to this, which which has always, I mean, this has now played out over over over ten years. the Republicans trying to pin this left wing communist, whatever kind of thing on on a set of on the Democrats which haven't shown no inclination. Even AOC seems like So it just seems like a regular old political career. Well and this right, and the squad which once seemed so there has had the corners rubbed off it. Right? Yeah, it's not as though the Republicans don't have an issue here. So that should, you know, I mean, it seems overwhelmingly the Democrats have an issue because what what issue is bigger than Donald Trump? Right. But, you know, Donald Trump exists in part because a not insignificant part of the country found the Democrats you know, a hard pill to swallow. Well, and you remember how effective the trans ad against Bys and girls sports. was at the general election, it's highly possible they could do that with Chevalier and turn her some of the things she said into one of those ads. You know, To what extent do you think the problem here is also that there seems to be that there's no overall leader yet, national leader for the Democrats There's no singular voice. And of course, they say, well, we're a big tent party. We don't need a singular voice. you've got to vote local The Republicans they're usually relively with one voice. But there is usually not a singular voice in the midterms. U and that's usually that may be an advantage because because the focus then becomes becomes the person who is the singular voice, who is the incumbent Wh is Donald Trump So the the Democrat the Republicans can't go after that singular representative of of what they're asking people to vote against So it's not like a a general election where it's a binary essentiallyight. No, it's more likeoice. Dulliver which is Donald Trump. And then the Liliputians, which is the Democrats Okay I think that's a suitable analogy. So of course As you're saying, people When you're talking to them in the White House, say, Well, you can't rule anything out, it's Donald Trump He could pull something out of the bag. No one would have anticipated Butler, Pennsylvania and the incredible lift that gave him. rememember when Elon Musk came out and said, o my goodness, he's my candidate On the other hand, right. It's very possible that he will do things that are Detrimental, deeply detrimental to the Republicans You know, Donald Trump's capacity to shoot himself in the foot should never be underestimated. So, and he's, you know, all I mean, it would seem Now that he has gone down the path to do almost everything undermine the Republicans. I mean, he's now literally under I mean, he has he's literally so far refusing to sign this bipartisan Housing Act. Yeah get made law anyway, but what he's stolen from the Republicans is the ability to show that they care and that this would have been very helpful. This was actually a bipartisan win that might have helped them during the midterms. Right. And he's calling this marginal or some I mean, he's literally dismissing this One of the if not the pivotal issue in this campaign pay no attention to that. That's not That's what I want is this voting bill that is never going to pass. And which people don't care about because actually don't care about. And also I suspect that people think, no, he's screwing around with the election Do you think they are thinking that Um, yeah. Democrats might be thinking that I don't know if Republicans are thinking that. Well, there's Democrats and there's Republicans and then there's the people in between who are at issue here Right. Okay, f. All right, so Should we take a bet on it were We're four months out. how many seats do you think the Democrats are going to win Oh, I should first just say, what about the gerrymandering To what extent do we? Well, no, mean I mean, I think I think obviously, obviously that is that will play somewh appears like it will play somewhat to his benefit. But of course, if the wave bllue wave Um, is the hurricane B enough, it's not to make any difference Well it might give him a few seats here or there I mean, we're in Mississppi but not no not notot necessarily. I mean, it actually could have the opposite effect that this could be a significant backfire. Remember, because, you know when you when you When you move Republicans into another district, you move them out of the district that they were in. This is a comp this at some level, this is a zero sum game. Okay, I'm not sure I understand that Just just just think if you have you have to move Republicans You have a Democratic district over here or a district that was that was formally weighted to the Democrat side or it was a swing side. So in order to make that more Republican, you have to take Republicans from somewhere else and put them there Therefore, if you take Republicans from somewhere else then They're not going to be where they once were So you're going to reduce One becomes One becomes more less swing but the one becomes more swing So and if you have a wave then, that means that you're going to you're going to potentially yourour design for Gerrymandering may go in a in a counterindicated fashion. It really should be fantasy political leagues at this point, shouldn't there? Why is nobody doing that, or are they doing that? There may be Right Would we know? But this is our we're such nerds, this is our sport Why are you looking like that? You're a nerd? Well, no, first thing, I don't think that that's that that's that that's true. Matter of fact, you know, you know, one think you're a nerd I once in my No. Uh, I' um I don't think I'm a nerve. and I don't think you're I've known you for years and years. we have never had a political discussion. So I don't think you're interested in I don't think you're a political nerve Um, I don't even think you're interested in politics. We're just pretend here What are you talking about? I'm riveted by this stuff. I'm interested in the people, I'm interested in the characters. And that's the change of that has been Donald Trump. I once ran a political magazine. What was that called then It was it was actually a trade magazine for politicians and it was called Campaigns and Elections U I can't imagine you doing this. Yes. and This is a the whole side of real life, I not? There's all in my chekered checkered career. but U when I came into this magazine, Washington based magazine, I came into this magazine and And they kept saying, well, you know, who's your audience And They would say political junkies. Don't say that anymore. Don't call your audience junkies Anyway Are they self appointed junkies though. They want to be called junkies because it suggests that this is an addiction. But I am interested in the people and the characters in this. I do think that's interesting And I think the change of the world we're living in is incredibly interesting. And how Donald Trump has changed is interesting. And having grown up in Europe, I'm interested in the future of NATO. So in other words, you got interested in politics Be because of Donald Trump? Totally, tootally, as did a lot of other people. Actually. I mean, to be fair I've always been quite interested I was never interested I'm still not interested I was interested in British politics, especially when Tony Blair came to h But I feel stuck with Donald Trump Donal Trump Donald Trump, my character, yourour character. All right. Well, I think it's time that we go and enjoy Um july the fourth I think there's hot dogs to be had and burgers and flags to wave. Are you coming to my neighborhood? I might be coming to your neighborhood I might be coming to your neighbourorhood. Yes indeed I am. I'm a Ganet. I'm going be out in Se Harbour actually. veryery much looking forward to it. and you know, fireworks, enormous fireworks I'm just sorry we didn't go to the state fire. Fireworks State Fire, you hate firework. Who hates firework? It's so boring. the same They are a bit boring. the time. Jeez. Well, this year at the state Fair, everyverybody waiting for them to be over, when's the finale? Is that the finale? I. That is true. The good news is that the fireworks on the mall are going to be the best ever. It's going to be the biggest firework display that's ever happened in the history of the firework world The Firework community are going to be thrilled by this. Where is he going to be He himself. I guess he'll be Well I'm assuming he'll be at the White House, won't? I don't know. Does he come out? Do Do you see the AI golden eagle that he wants to put? I'm sure he's going to come out on the balcony and look at the fireworks I did see something about this golden eagle He's planning to put an eagle on the Truman balcony U We could get you one for your Amagana house if you like I know you're going to have your flag there. I told you I've got a flag which I'm going to put out. It's time for hot dogs. It's time for corn doogs And we'll go to the next state fair. Michael, happappy fourth. Happy indndependence Day. Not independent from Donald Trump, though with're symbiotic at this point independent from you If you have been, thank you for joining us Um Don't forget to subscribe to the Daily Beast and happppy July the fourth Ryan John Heather and we have an intern Max the intererm inter. Happy forth everybody and we'll be back on Tuesday. So the good news is we have so many bebeast tier members now. There are too many names to read out and we really appreciate your support. Some personality quirks are really funny. talk to my left foot. more than I talk You know what's not funny and not a personality quirk? OCD. Although the term OCD is widely recognized, it's misunderstood by most people. It doesn't mean being tidy or clean. It's having obsessive fears, thoughts, and urges. You question your character, you question your safety. That's OCD. Breaking the OCD cycle takes effective treatment. 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