Matt Goodwin on Reform's Prospects

The telegraph cast powers the world's best podcasts Here's a show that we recommend Hello American podcast, listeners., Max Roon here from the Guardian Football We week, which I think you should give a listen. It is good. It comes out three times a week and the podcast delivers you analysis, news, both the good and the bad from the beautiful game, and maybe even the occasional laugh He's angry about everything. He doesn't have a great poker face, doesn't he? I would like to play cards with Runo Fernando. You can listen to the Guardian Football Weekly wherever you get your podcasts. Hopefully see you soon ACast helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. ACast. comot It's the most important by election either of us can remember. Makerfield gets to pick a PM Andy Burnham and Wes Street are already tearing lumps out of each other over the EU, and Kir Starmer, as ever, is digging in As Reforms Matt Goodwin tells us, it is a gift from heaven for Nigel Farrage Welcome to the Daily Tam with me Camilla Tomini and me Tim Stanley I've finally emerged from my anesthetic induced fog. I had a tricky weekend. Right. I tried to play tennis on Saturday. it went very badly wrong. At one point between sets, I wondered if I could just lie down on the court. My opponent was like, A you all right? I said, I think I'm still suffering the effects of very serious fentanyl drugs. Yes. tried to get through my GBew show went okay then had to rest again, and today I feel back to normal. Right. When you were doing the show, did you think you sounded like Oscar Wild? I think I full of wit and wisdom and actually on air it was L la go tour some might say no, change there. And you've revealed in your column that you've made a little discovery about your furry friend Bertie dog deaf And I was mortified because I hadn't noticed. I think his hearing has been declining for about six months and the penny dropped a few nights ago when I came home and walked in the front room and he just didn't know I was there So I did some tests, some clinical trials, which include waving his box of biscuits behind his ear, and he didn't respond. And the next day I took him to the lovely people who look after him when I'm at work, and I said, I'm concerned that Bertie's hearing is going. And they said Oh he was deaf. Didn't you know? They thought I knew And they said, donon't worry, he's absolutely fine. and it's true. I've been to a vet, I've got an official diagnosis. I'm learning sign language for let goo of the sock Lve that. And I've just spent the weekend adjusting my behavior. and I now real I now realize what things I was doing wrong, I shouting at him, shouting from another room from another room. And it's quite simple. You now just have to be within visual range. and you just have to point when you do things and he responds really well He's always been what they called a shadow dog. He's always followed me around everywhere I go. And I think because he reads me very well, it's not a problem and he seems really happy. But I am wondering if I can squeeze some money out of this tarer's allowance Well you can getability c veryast at the very least I should get good parking at Waitroows because I've got a deaf dog. Or like just a cut price access to, for instance, the Tower of London. My dog is disabled.. Well, should we move on to the very weighty matters of state? Yes, that are the Burnham Streeting starmer I think we are facing One of the most significant bialections of my lifetime. If if not the most important. Because how often do people vote not just to send a message to send a man to number ten. Yes. And those are the stakes Think how Kia Stara looks at this If Andy Burnham loses, he can keep his job. Yeah. If Andy can he, then Well maybe challenges is with others. But if Andy Burnham wins the official labour candidate, he is toast So he's got to judge how he plays this. And of course, he has, as we speak this morning, he's spoken to labour staff and he's said, I'm carrying on with the job. I'm absolutely clear about that. I do want to fy the next election. Obviously I recognise that after the local elections the elections in Wales and Scotland as well, that the first task is obviously turning things around, and making sure that my focus is in the right place. The last ten days, there' been a lot of activity which hasn' not been as focused in my view as it should have been, and I remind myself every day that I was elected into office to serve the people to serve the country. That's what I believe in, and that's what I'll be getting on with. He's carrying on with the job and he will back whoever the labour candidate is. But this is a vote notot just to not just for Andy Burnham It's against Kierst Armour and to replace him with Andy B. Yes. And it makes it a curious vote for the leftft in Makerfield because You could want to eject the Prime Minister at all costs and therefore vote for Burnham But you might be an old labour Lty in that constituency that voted sixty six percent for leave, not wanting to support Burnham because Burnham is now flirting with reentry into the EU. Okay, we'll get onto this. He hasn't gone as far as streeting. But let's be honest, we know where Berurnham's allegiances lie when it comes to Brussels. and that's in bed with them. Yes. For political expediency right now, he's distancing himself from previous comments where he basically said in a manner of speaking that the referendum should be reversed. Y. He's been out referendumed by Wb Streeting saying Absolutely, Brexit was a mistake and we must do everything to stop it. And we can talk about Streeting's motivations in a minute Burnham's got this really difficult juggling act now. because he wants to capture both labor rightites that don't like Starmer But also labor rights that don't like remain. Yes. And that's quite hard, isn't it? That's like Boris Johnson level of juggling Red Wall and blue wall. So it's a d election that decides who is Prime Minister. It's a d election that decides the future of reform, because reform has established itself as the opposition And if it could win anywhere It is in Makerfield, somewhere where it' swept the local elections, where it's polling well in advance against a generic labor candidate. It won eight wards at Red wall working class almost entirely white. This has reform written all over it. So reform needs to win this to show that those are their people. They've got a lock on their constituency The Tories are dead in the water, reform is the future, and my golly, if they can be Andy Burnham, the so called King of the North, that proves that the wind is behind their sails But It's important for the Prime Minister, important for reform, It's also important for the future of the lefteft. becausecause left wing commentators are looking at Makerfield and saying Bernon can beat reform. thenen that means labor has a path to getting re elected. Yes Can Burnham twoo things. One, monopolize the left wing vote squeeze the greens, so he reconsolidates, brings the left back into the Labour Party. But can he also appeal to enough reform supporters to prove that his kind of politics Manchesterism, which is a kind of municipal socialism switching back to the left can also beat reform Yes. That's why everyone's focused on this because it's about not just selecting The current prrime minister, but who will be the prrime M minister in ten years time? Also, isn't it about him saying can I as a personality that is much more popular and more charismatic than Kir Stama brackets It's not that hard It's not that hard. And it's a competition between Runil and some other brand of wood varnish, right? I mean I've been watching Burnham all weekend. He went out jogging in his shorts show a bit of leg, far too short. his short shorts. And I've been watching a lot of interviews and things. and I'm struck by one I can see his passion for Manchester. Yes. That's great. There was an infamous interview about ten years ago when he was running for leadership for the second time at that time And he said, peopleeople are sick of Westminster insiders. And the interviewer said to him, You are a Westminster Inider. You went to Cambridge, you're a SpAad. You've then done nothing else but be in Parliament. So he went away and became elected Manchester Mayor in twenty seventeen. and you can see in interview,'s his genuine passion for Manchester.. And I spoke to a friend who lives in Manchester over the weekend right winger And he said, everyone I know says I'm voting for Burnham And he said part of the appeal is subtly conservative It's this sense that he's a pragmatic person. He believes in public private partnerships. He's not mad. He's not one of the green people. He's just about making sure that the trams run on time But having said that Does that scale up to the rest of the country? What are his policies on immigration In a speech in Leeds, which sounded very much like Andy Burnham's personal manifesto, he said the country had been run badly for forty years, even though he was part of the government in that time and pledged not to reopen the EU debate I amm not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU. I respect the decision that was made at the referendum And it's going to undermine everything said. I've said about strengthening democracy If we don't respect that vote. He has in the past said, I'll be honest, I want to be back in the EU, but now he's slightly pulled back on that because if nothing else, that ain't going to happen within this parliament. You wouldn't be able to do it without a second referendum. So what does he think about the marches that took place this weekend What does he think about free speech issues? What does he think about Donald Trump? What does he think about the war in Iran? But also that personality Does that work outside of Mare Because it's a very dry, it's almost the charisma of zero charisma. Yes. The appeal is he's not flashy Perfectly ordinary, never wears a tie. A bit like starmer. Well, we also need to be cognizant of the fact that Andy Burnham lost the Labour leadership to Jeremy Corbyn. Yes. What does that say? And perhaps to say he's pragmatic is a compliment. You could also say that he's grounded in absolutely nothing. Yes, that nobody can work out the answers to any of the questions you've just posed. I think he's vague to the point of Zen And I think he is a nostalgic candidate. In the same way, Nigel Farage is nostalgia for the nineteen seventies and eighties in a weird way. Burnham is nostalgia for the nineteen nineties Yeah A lot of it is about when Manchester was great, the music scene Et He's Catholic he's believing himself, but he'. Right, But he is a Catholic. All that sort of stuff.erately good looking compared to the average labour MP. Right, o. But then it is interesting the personality factor in all this because Polling from Servation suggest that if it was just any other labour candidate versus reform, reform would be likely to take the seat on fifty three percent compared to Labour's twenty seven. Yes. However If it's the greaty eyelashed one of short shorts fame then those odds tighten considerably and the pollosters favour labour forty five percent to reforms forty two. So this whole Mank celebrity factor is a thing. It is significant. And as we know, I mean, I don't know how it might not be such a thing in outer Manchester.ly not But also by the way, it's wiggan. Yeah. Some people have pointed out, this isn't his heartland in the sense that he has often been criticised for favouring the city centre over the outskirts. and many have said, look He's been great at introducing trendy cafe culture to the city and the Sulford Keys development in the BBC, but that's resulted in high rises, high rents. local people forord Rom. Young people can't afford to get on the housing. Romley is not Vauxhle. No quiteion. R. Northwest London is not Islington. right. And there is a temptation with the King of the North stuff, which really irritates me. But there is a temptation with that to say The whole North is one all encompassing cliche that the mayor of Manchester can speak for Newcastle for liveright's in a bucket hat and says Matt for. Right. you see my point about scaling up that personal appeal. Having said that, we did vox bops in the constituency on Friday And I think we found one person who was going to vote against him. Even people who said I can't stand labor anymore, have not voted or even people said I'm a lifelong Tory. they all said, but I'd probably vote for Andy Burnnam. He is very popular and we have to be realistic about that I would say right now I'd put money on Burn and will'll win this se. Would you? Oh yeah, I might take that bet actually. Okay. I won't put money because I don't gamble, but I will bet you You're far too Christian to gamble. Canet me a packet of chocolate hob knobs. There you go. I'll bet you a packet of chocolate hob knnobs, which you won't eat No. ' you're too thin. I know, Well I'm of chocolate and carbs. I'm too Christian to gamble and I'm too thin You're too thin to eat the prie the winning. Okay. Well we'll settle on something, maybe to get them some high protein chicken some kind of dish. But also in Makerfield, who doesn't want to vote for a prime minister? Everyone's saying donon't they want a local candidate?one wants a local candidate. you want a prime minister to It's an alternative narrative to all this and it's actually pointed out by Paul a listener and a viewer of this podcast sayaying, donon't you also think that quite a few voters will turn around and say do you think you're playing at? Yeah. We are in a force right now We're in the fast that was Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy. On my GB newews show yesterday who had gone out in Makerfield to campaign for Andy Burnham, pretending that she wasn't campaigning for him to be the next prime mininister.. Even though we know that they're besties. And she's uncomfortable with the EU stuff, do. Yeah, exactly, right. So you've got her being critical of the EU stuff and that's intended as a barb against streeting because Streeting' the one who's gone fully throatedly remain. You know, he's the one who is with that prospect crowd with the membership He's appealing to the membership, obviously Burnham's having to appeal to the constituency. And by the way, I wouldn't put it past streeting to have said all that so that via osmosis, it gets to the good people of Makerfield, that in general, the labour candidates vying for the Starmer's job are all Romaniacs.. Therefore be very careful how you vote in this by election, because of course, where Burnham falters streeting could succeed.. Because if he doesn't make it to Westminster,ue he's out of the race and then streeting's facing off whom? M Band and Reyna who have both got their own optical problems. Yeah Streeting might, I mean, by some miracle, but of course we've got to consider the membership. However, this whole misnomer that the membership is overwhelmingly left wing There was an interesting piece in the observer saying how that membership has changed since the Corbyn era where there were over half a million members. Now that number's down to about two hundred fifty thousand. There was a poll in the mail on Sunday, when asked and this is Labour members, who would you like to be the next Prime Minister thirty six percent said Andy Burnham. thirty six percent said Sheer stara The percentage of labour members who were voting for the other candidates was in single digits. So this Very interesting. membership, and by the way That doesn't surprise me. I mean, Boris was controversial within the Conservative partarty. But one reason why Liz Truss won the leadership election was because she got a lot of votes from those conservatives who were angry, like that thirty six percent Via Stahmer Boris Johnson having lost the job So and it makes perfect sense, does it not that if you have joined the party in the last few years, you're probably a supporter of Kia Stara. Yes. And the union vote is critical as well. We know the unions have backed away from Kia Stara We know the unions will probably favour Burnhamina over streeting because streeting has taken on the junior doctors. But bear with me here The Unions do not like Ed Minipand Well hate him No I'm sorry that. And he's yet to make a pitch to them. Union people were coming up to us at the Labour Party confference. I remember a number of Union barons, if you can still call them, that it's a bit nineteen eighties. It's because I was watching rivals at the weekend that I am. living in a world of hairspray and blue mascara They came up to me and were absolutely slagging off Miliband what he's doing to the North Sea. So they're not going to be backing him as the next Chancellor no way. So then how do they exercise their vote in any two candidates against each other election down south. There's quite a lot to play for here. You do also have, I have a wall with photographs of sane labour MPs on You've got very few. You're not one of these people that like you open a couple of doors and you've got like different pieces of newspaper and like pieces of string, and then're like, Ohh my god, Tim Stany's a. But I am building a little wall of sane labour MP's and it's very little w. Who's in it? Well, Shabana in my mood would be in it. Yeah. But I think Jonathan hinders in it too. Yeah, he shouldn't be in the Labour party should he?s you're in the wrong party, Jonathan. I'm sorry you really arean Because what he gets that Labour doesn't get is labour, which, according to another poll, the membership, eighty seven percent would like to be in the EU. eighty seven percent, if anything, Labour is now a remainer party. But what they don' understand is the Brexit vote is not just about trade or numbers or figures, it's become a sort of cultural signifier A signifier of whose side are you generally on? and what do you think about the establishment ten years later to say now I'm a Brexiteer Re a shorthand for I want self government, I think immigration's out of control. and I feel the elite have screwed me over in the last ten, ten years and tried to stop me from doing what I want to do. It's not just so people like West Streeting they just think, donon't you want to be back in Look at the numbers, lookook at the trade barri. Don't we're back in right now. Let's go back in. You're up against a large number of people who would just go you're repeating the mistakes in the last ten years of trying to tell me that I don't know what I want and trying to overturn what I voted for. This is the Glaspurn argument and he made it really well yesterday. So this is the blue labour peer that backs Mahmood over anyone and he is a socialist, but he puts it down to This is not a war being waged over right and left anymore It's about the sovereigntists versus the globalists. Jonathan Hinder is in favor of greater public control of the economy. He is not right wing labour. Where streeting is right wing labour He's the kind of sell the NHS off on eBay kind of labor, the progress crowd People like Lasman and Hinda are actually in favor of more industrial strategy, more public control, but they are pro Brexit for this because they've read it correctly.. And Hinda represents a kind of a red wall, could go Tory or now reform sort of seat And it is true, John Curtis argues that if you look at the local elections, what happened is Labour lost because their vote went to the greens. And that allowed the reform who have gained from the Tories to beat them just about So there is an argument within the labor of saying the real problem remains a divided left that we're not appealing to the right. But there are even if the vote that's gone from labor to reform is small It is enough to cost people like Jonathan Hinder their seats. Yeah. But also when you think about the sovereigntist versus the globalist Davos crowd of which Starmer is Lanyard wearer in chief. at my Davos Pass. In fact he's the kind of man that keeps and frames his Davos passass probably puts them up on the wall, right? If you're in that sovereigntist I don't think you should underestimate sort of old labour or some lefties embarrassment at the notion that we would go crawling back to Brussels. Yeah. It's just a basic thing that many, many people left and right will think This is thoroughly unbritish. We're not going cap in hand to Brussels to then frankly have to cout out to all sort of being rule takers, not rule makers. Oh, by the way, while we're at it, you have to use the euro. We would look absurd. We'd look absurd. From the point of v of whoever is the next prime mininister, it'll be great. You'll get to sit in French drawing rooms with Louis Canne's furniture and discuss progress and gay rights and we're going to bring down trade barriers and you'll think it looks great. From the outside, it'll look appalling. Well it look like what it is, which is Britain begging like it had to do in the sixties and seventies to be allowed into the European tent. Also it'll be a different European tent, won't it? Because Le Pen may win. It'll contain fascists What's going to happen in Germany? And what the next British Prime Minister thinks he's going to lead a coalition of the Willing with some of these new incumbents What are they thinking, Tim? Yeah They're not thinking. Well, what are they thinking We're trying to figure out now what's going through Kir Starmer's head. People have to understand There is a kind of a fog of war taking place And through that fog, you get little glimpses of action Someone will insist for days that they're not going anywhere and then suddenly they'll resign. And there's a flurry to understand the motivation And what we have to rely upon is reports from the lobby, which are very often sourced from one or two individuals So people will build a narrative around what's going on in the labour camp based upon speaking to one person Right now, it was reported in the mail over the weekend that Kir Starmer has a timetable to go. that after his week from hell, he retreated to checkers And he spoke to his people and he is torn because if he announces a timetable now, well, Burnham could lose that by election. Yes. then there's no need for a timetable. On the other hand, if Gistarmer waits to announce a timetable and Andy Burnham wins the by election It's going to look like Burnham is pushing him out So for the sake of his own dignity He has a timetable in mind, but it's a question of when he announces it. Now that could all be true But as I say, that will be based upon maybe one person with a perspective of what's happening It could also not be true And if you look at it if you just study what Kir Stama has actually done, this race, he has just sat tight. Yeah That's what he did at the historic Cabinet meeting last Tuesday, when people turned up expecting to discuss the leadership for several hours. Instead, he just said at the beginning of the meeting, I'm not talking about this today and I willll see you in my own time. Yeah, he's just digging in. that's his character. And Carl Turner spoke to this last week. He is stubborn Yeah. Okay, he is unmovable at times. Yes. He is thick skinned Yes because he doesn't have that much of a personality. So he kind of doesn't engage with people in the te room. Yeah, but you know these people are kind of oblivious to criticism of them. Y. He also feels he's kind of guided by something higher than petty politics He was elected prrime Minister and if you don't mind, I am going to do what I was elected to do for as long as I possibly can because that's what it says in the rule book. Yes. And he and his people Again, this is based upon what we get out the lobby. Now hate West trezing Yeah. But wonder if Streetings actually messed this all up. Yeah. because didn't have the numbers. What's the first rule of politics? Learn how to count. Right. And the theory was that of anyone who Kistama would want to succeed him, it would be where Streetings Yeah. An ally of Morgan McSweeney from the moderate wing of the partarty. Well. I don't know whether this has been briefed by somebody who is anti streeting, but Right now, the telegraph has just gone live with an exclusive story. saying that West Streeting before he left the health department decided that we should have a pilot to allow doctors to deliver millions of virtual hospital appointments at their convenience What we're talking about here, Tim is We've already had it with GPs and a remote service We're now going to have hospital doctors. wororking from home. for which they will be paid ight They have a chance to boost their earnings while working from home They would benefit from qu offering a small amount of additional time to seeing more patients in a way that is convenient and attractive for them, i. e. the doctors. But don't you think this is extraordinary that this virtual hospital is being piloted on gynecology Uurology gastenterology and ophthalmology. The most intimate parts of the body which if you want to understand what's going on, You have to be there in person. Re do have to be physically examined, I would imagine, in any of those medical fields. Yes. I'm sorry, this is nothing annoys me more, frankly, as a GP's daughter, retired GP than the absolute contempt in which patients are held these days in the UK. You can't get into your doctor's surgery And now it's being suggested that you can't even get into hospital once referred to see someone face to face Can I just make the very simple point? Doesn't matter what happened with COVID or the advance of technology Doctors and nurses have one Sob to physically see and examine and diagnose patients. This is terrible. There are some appointments where theoretically, perhaps you don't physically need to be there. For instance, when being given results But then of course, it could be the case that you want to say to the doctor while being given the results Can you have another look or something else has come up? are we moving towards cancer diagnosis by NHS app? Yes. Have we literally become that debased that's what this amounts to, that everything can. I just I always speak up on this because I think you and I, it's fine We have a throat infection, we want an online appointment through our private health or whatever. We can see someone down the line.'t have private health carry on. I know but that's mad and we have discussed it. becausecause it is offered by this employer. We see someone, we can get it sorted. Yes. For an eighty eight year old with complex medical needs that is constantly being referred onto a phone, laptop or computer and doesn't know how to operate that system who has paid tax and national insurance their whole working lives I'm sorry, I consider it to be a complete and utter insult and aberration. Well, and also I once accompanied my mother to a hospital appointment to receive a diagnosis and there were several doctors present And she couldn't understand any of them because they were foreign born. and I had to act as translator. which is tr. And I know that the standards have chang in the NHS. theoretically now you need to have a very high standard of English. but It's to do with accent and the ability of an elderly patient to follow and understand an accent they're unfamiliar with. Imagine that scenario down the phone. Yes. with I'd rather not imagine it Honestly, well, that story is live on our website now and we will link it to the show notes Coming up next, we're going to speak to Matt Goodwin The Reform partarty wannaby MP that lost Gordon and Denton but has got some great insight into how Make a Field might play out Goodin, good to see you. Good to see you Tim and I have been analyzing the seismic nature of this by election. Are we overstating it? or is this basically a precursor to the general election? The local election that's going to map out the electoral map for years to come No, I think it's massive. I think this is an absolutely enormous political battle because it's going to tell us many things. It's going to tell us firstly just how much of a threat Reform UK really is to the Labour Party in its heartlands. We've had the local elections which have shown that actually reform is now a serious proposition across the heartlands, but I think this will entrench that. And I think fundamentally it's going to tell us the future direction of the Labour partarty, which from my perspective, is now teetering on making fromrom the Labour Party's perspective, a catastrophic decision, it is clearly deciding that it wants to be a political party for pro EU pro immigration, progressive activists, not a political party for the country. That's what we can see with the Andy Burnham and Wed Streeting positions. They both want to rejoin the European Union, and that's what we see with Angela Ryna's positioning as well being very pro immigration and critical of those who have called to control immigration like Shaban and Mahmou. The Labour Party is basically teetering on no becoming a sort of self indulgent, self absorbed, amateurist political party that really has no serious interest in its heartlands. And I think if reform storm Makerfield, which I think is likely, given what we've seen in that area in the local elections we've seen in that area in previous elections then that really will introduce a very big question for the Labour Party, which is is it even a national political party anymore? Is it a serious political party But Matt, your party does face a potential hurdle here, which is that According to the few polls we have if Labour selected any ordinary candidate Reform would win this seat very easily Burnhem in the running It's close and you might even lose If you lose this seat on the basis of Andy Burnham being the mayor of Manchester and from the early vox pops we've done in the constituency, he's very popular It just comes across to most people like a decent local bloke If he wins this seat, on the back of his exceptional personality But while saying I want to rejoin the EU You know that the very next day everyone's going to say Brexit's over people of Makerfield, a leave leaning seat, have just voted for someone who wants to go back into the EU. Reforms moment has passed. I'm not sure how we could say that after three point eight million people just voted for Reform UK at the elections in England, Wales and Scotland. Reform did just finish first in England, second in Wales and joint second in Scotland. So the idea that a pro Brexit anti mass migration party is somehow entering a cul deac, I don't think that would be borne out by the result. But let me just give you my view on the Burnham factor, and I'm happy to be wrong on this And I'm saying this as someone that's knocked on seven thousand doors in Gorton and Denton. I know the Manchester landscape pretty well. I do not believe that Andy Burnham is as popular as Andy Burnham and many people in London think he is. Andy Burnham, especially in outer Manchester, where Makerfield is He is seen as somebody who has often prioritized inner Manchester the expense of the outer boroughs. Nobody yet has picked up on this, but it's an important point positioning at this by election is going to be all over the place. He wants to rejoin the European Union, but not right now He's asking people to vote for labor in areas that have been absolutely decimated by mass migration. And by the way, in Wigan and the surrounding area, HMOs, housing for multiple occupants. It's an enormous issue in those areas. illegal migrants being prioritized over the hard working majority in the housing sector. reform will undoubtedly target that issue And I think more generally Andy Burnham is sort of He's now projecting himself, I think, as being about Andy Burnham, that Makerfield is becoming a stepping stone in his quest to become Prime Minister rather than the by election in Makerfield being about putting the people of Makerfield first. Now I've no doubt Reform UK and whoever the candidate is will go in there and say this is about putting Makerfield first, not Andy Burnham. Well, let's talk about your candidate because there's two ways you could go you could try and find an equally famous Mank. I don't know what the Gallagher brothers are doing right now. Maybe some retired Manchester United or Manchester City star, some maybe Gary Neville. Maybe Gary Neville. I'm not sure if he's on your side of the fence, Matt, Goodwin. So you could go down that route now you could describe yourself as a celebrity candidate in the sense that you have a presence on GB News. You're well known nationally in certain circles and it didn't work out for you because perhaps you weren't considered local enough The alternative is to revert back to Robert Kenyan who fought the seat for reform in twenty twenty four. This guy's a plumber. He's got a good backstory unlike Burnham He's had a job in the army, worked in NHS. Exactly he' had a job outside politics And actually that degree of localism could outburn and burn them So The first thing to say, not to relive past battles, but Gorton and Denton, we did defeat Labour in Greater Manchester, which was an enormous achievement. and of course at the local elections, what many people have missed is that Reform UK went on based on that and they absolutely decimated labor across Tameside. Every single seat but one in Angela Rayna's backyard just went Reform UK. Now we're told repeatedly that Angela Rayner understands the working people of this country Well, actually, if she turned around and looked at what's just happened in her own backyard, like Lisa Andandy and Wiggan every single seat but one has just gone reform UK. I suspect what reform will do is go for a hyper local candidate from the area who has a history of political activism has stood at previous elections. I know a number of the people being considered. I think they're very solid grounded, hard working, patriotic people that reflect the reform cooalition, if you like I don't think whoever they stand will be just NX Tory. I think you'll see reform leaning into reform. because there are basically, I think two wings. there are Tory reformers, and then there are who I would align myself with Reformers reformers,, Tue reformers who really understand this isn't about becoming a Tory tribute act, the kind of Tim Montgomery' of the world. This is actually about genuinely taking on the establishment and really reshaping this country. And I think a reform will go for a local candidate that really reflects that. to meet the Burnham factor, but they're also going to go really hard on the issues that the Labour Party has clearly got no serious interest in talking to voters about HMO's, mass migration, respecting the vote for Brexit. And to be honest, and I do I sort of agree with Tim to an extent The thing about Brexit, though to me is, it's not so much about should we be in or out of Europe? At this point, it is about do you respect democracy? Do you respect popular sovereignty? Do you respect the right of people to have voted for a different constitutional settlement? So it's become about democratic legitimacy more than anything. And I suspect the people of Makerfield will say exactly what the people of Gateshead and Hartleypool and Wiggan and Wakefield just said, which is we no longer recognize this radically progressive pro EU pro immigration Labour Party that looks more like a student union society than a serious political party that's interested in representing the patriotic majority I think reform has managed to monopolize a vibe of people who feel left behind and ignored by Westminster And what Berham is trying to do is tap into that He's trying to send you and he's actually said it. This is about making politics local again. It's about moving Labor back to what it used to be when people felt more comfortable with that brand, when it was more kind of culturally familiar, if not quite conservative And the irony is is that if he does win this seat, and it's on a knife edge, but if he did win this seat, it's almost a trap for labor because they could misinterpret his victory as a repudiation of reform When in many ways, I think he's tapping in or trying to tap in to some of the same dissent that reform is riding I think that would work And I think Burnham would be stronger if we were still in a politics that was about people feeling left behind economically. The problem Burnham has and the problem the Labour Party and all centre left parties in the West have is we know that lots of people also feel that they are being pushed aside culturally and demographically. So long as Andy Burnham doesn't want to talk about those issues. so long as he doesn't want to talk about HMOs, mass migration, cultural collapse, what's happening at the borders, also what's happening with free speech, the way his party is treating, even people who are marching through London at the weekend This sort of inability to accept the entirely legitimate views of the patriotic majority in this country, he's going to constantly run into really big problems. I think Burnham is popular in parts of Manchester. I think that he is he is an okay campaigner, but he is not as strong as people are suggesting. And I'd say again, lots of people might disagree with me. I was on the ground I really do not think Andy Berham would have won Gorton and Denton because the greens And they're standing in Makerfield The Greens were very strong on the economic populism They were very strong at bringing that fight to labor from the left But we were just as strong at really appealing to a combination of white working class non graduates Patriotic voters, fed up of labour and the ground game that we actually mastered in Gorton and Denton. No one has yet, I think, written a story on this. But the ground game that will now be applied to Makerfield, you know the use of digital science, the use of really strong canvassing, the get out the vote operation. I think we have a tendency when we think about Nigel Farge's parties to think about the UKIip days and it was a bit It was a bit chaotic and it was a bit, you know, all over the place. but now what Nigel has led and what he's presiding over is the full blown professionalization of an insurgent party, which is why we got nearly thirty percent in Greater Manchester and why I really do think. reform will win Makerfield. I really do think that. I mean, judging by the general election results, obviously a lot has happened since then. At that point in twenty twenty four, the Greens weren't really at the races, but I agree they could gain popularity and split the vote on the left Let's talk about the vote on the right. Now this is not a seat that the Tories would expect to win in any stretch of the imagination. However, two years ago, they did secure nearly five thousand votes I asked Kemmy Bade, not my opposition leader on my GB newews show yesterday whether they would stand aside for reform in the interests of the country. I'm not playing games, Camilla. All this game playing and doing deals and we'll work with you winning It doesn't matter whether he wins or a reformed person wins or we have kiss armor. The thing that reform and labour have in common is that they think politics is a popularity contest What is the agenda? Well I laid out. Look, I laid out an agenda at the King's speech. I gave a speech and I said, here's what we would be doing, on oil and gas, on welfare, defense investment plan, all of these things Rijer Farge didn't even bother to speak in that debate. That's the debate where every party leader turns up. He won't turn up for work. So why does it matter which random person he picks for Makerfield? The people of Makerfield, I'm afraid to say, are the ones who are in a bad place because the only thing that this election is going to be about is Kase Armer or Andy Burnham Jacob Posemarker said that's a mistake They should stand. Yes. Should they stand aside, Matt Goodwin I don't think it really matters at this point. My theory on this by election and the general election, what we're going to see in this country now is mass tactical voting on the right. Now we talk about tactical voting on the left. Will labour voters go green, willill LibDMs go labour Go back to Gorton and Denton, twow things that happened there. Ag, a few people picked up on it. The conservatives lost their deposit And there was a party to the right of reform that polled fewer votes than the Monster Raving looononey partarty There was mass tactical voting on the right of British politics Fast forward to Makerfield. If you're a conservative in Makerfield, you know it's a wasted vote. You should vote reform to stop Andy Burnham and Labor. And if you're flirting with anything to the right of reform, you know hands down. It is a wasted v The only credible, competent, coherent alternative to the establishment is reform. Now fast forward to the next general election, and I think we're going to see that en masse. A lot of conservatives that will end up saying, look I don't agree with reform on everything, but we cannot entertain the prospect of a coalition of complete chaos with Zach Polansky, whoever succeeds the Labour Party, the SMP, We are going to have to line up behind reform. And I think that this tactical voting on the right, which we saw on the ground in Gorton and Dnton, We will now see Makerfield. I think it is being massively underpriced in how people think about the next general election because also the writes might think just on a national level, if the Makerfield by election being won by Andy Burnham results in Ed Milliband being the next Chancellor. It's not for them. When Tommy Robinson spoke at the United Kingdom rally this weekend He said, you should all go home and join a party. and it said, I don't care which one it is, Tory, reform, restore And people started cheering Rupe at low Does that not concern you I am not a fan of Rupert Loow and Restore. I've said that publicly. I think that what is within that ecosystem is very ugly I've seen some pretty disgusting views in and around that political party which clearly either Rupert Low does not know about, or is not bothered about. And I think that's for him to answer. But Rut Lowe's candidates didn't do well in Great Yarmouth, and I believe they denied reform control of the council. Well, in one particular area of the country that represents er point three percent of the country, a local MP is popular and channeeled that into local council wins, but As for context, Reform UK just contested ninety nine point nine percent of all seats in the country. To be honest, that's what saving your country looks like, which is giving everybody in this country a serious voice. Nigel Farage has made this argument time and time again for much of the last fifteen years And I used to sort of discount it, but the more I've got to know him, the more I realize it's true and it's powerful He is a firewall in this country against some very things. And he is the person who is able to convinceced the British people to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and the policy of mass migration put the hard working majority of tax paying, law abiding British people first. and for it not to become something that violates are democratic norms that violates our civic culture that stays within the boundaries of let's just say Britishness what I see to the right of reform UK now, particularly online encouraged by a lot of Americans who don't have an understanding of our civic culture is something that I don't want any part in, but it's something that I think the vast majority of British people will look at and say, I'm sorry, this is not part of who we are. And I expect that rejection will be pretty strong and unequivocal. I was very interested in something you said earlier about the risk of reform being perceived as the Tories two point zero Explain that to us. Is there a faction within reform that wants to turn your party into just the new conservatives Well, I think there are people in and around reform who have joined for perhaps different reasons to the reasons that I joined the party. Perhaps they're driven more by instrumental concerns pererhaps are driven more by a desire to have power themselves pererhaps they're driven by the fact they think this is a route into accumulating more titles and you whateverking about Robert Jenrick, whoo youre talking about? No, I'm just making an observation being somebody that, you know I'm in the grassroots, I'm with the members, I'm with the activists. My view of reform has always been This is either an anti establishment political party that is fully committed to ending mass migration, leaving the ECHR rebuilding our economy around the British people and putting them first, unequivocally and unashamedly U or this is, you know this is going to become a sort of Tory tribute act that that I think the vast majority of people at the grassroots want nothing want nothing to do with. and when I see former prominent conservatives you know, in public debates and public forums criticizing who have been in reform for a long time have been doing a lot of hard work, have been building up the local branches that is the kind of toory politicking that reformers don't want and they Sorry what you referring to? Have some new reformers in inverted commas been critical of old reformers Well, I've just seen, let's just say Tories are known for enjoying the art of plotting. They enjoy going on podcasts criticizing one another and reformers have very little time for that. Reformers have very little time for that. And I think a lot of people in reform did ree the sigh of relief when the may the seventh deadline passed Yeah meananing no more conservative MPs effect to reform. and I know that A lot of people at the grassroots were really counting down to that day. Wow, but will Farage honor that? What if he gets a bigiggie wants you to come across It's up to Nigel what he does. I think the challenge reform who's left the challengell stride tell someone? I think the challenge reform now has, which everybody can see and Nigel would say himself is you what we now have to do, given that we're back polling at thirty percent, which is phenomenal, we have to ensure we not only stay there, but we look for ways to add to that. So more working class labour voters, more non voters what's left of the Conservative electorate. Let's get all of those groups together and let's save this country because I do think the other thing you hear at the grassroots, A lot of people in Britain really genuinely believe What an eighty two year old lady in the British Jewish community told me a month ago in Barnet, which is if reform does not win the general election. the next general election. Pform does not win that contest There are lots of people who will leave this country, who are actively planning to leave this country. They really do feel that it is not just about policy or even who will be Prime Minister necessarily. It is almost civilizational in the way that people now think about what's happening to Britain? Is this a country we still recognize? Is it a country where we feel at home to reference Roger Scruton? O is it actually a country that's becoming a hotel? where you don't really know who lives next door. You don't know what language they speak, what culture they cling to. Everywhere I go around the country and I do three or four events every week People say the same thing which is, you, they feel like the pace of change is now so great they no longer really recognize the place they once called home. That's a dangerous place for a country to be. That's why we're so unstable and divided. It's why Kir Starmer doesn't quite understand who is pushing us down a dangerous path. and it's not Nigel Farage. It's this insane policyy that is being imposed by the Tory governments and now the labour government. we have to change courseuse or I think we really will end up in disaster. Can I say one thing in Nigel's defense