Escalation And Unresolved Strategic Goals

The New York Times app has all this stuff that you may not have seen. The way the tabs are at the top with all of the different sections. I can immediately navigate to something that matches what I'm feeling. I go to games always. Doing the mini, doing the word all. I loved how much content it exposed me to. Things that I never would have thought to turn to a news app for. This app is essential. The New York Times app. All of the times, all in one place. Download it now at ny times.com/ app . From the New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily . Over the weekend, the United States military pulled off a stunning rescue behind enemy lines in Iran. The mission to save an injured airman was as complicated as it was daring. Today, my colleague Eric Schmidt explains how the U.S. pulled it off and why this victory may be short-lived. It's Tuesday, April seventh . Eric Schmidt, welcome back to the Daily. Thank you. So over the weekend, the administration pulls off this operation that seems like it could have been ripped from a Hollywood movie, right? And we're gonna get to the details of it. But before we do, Eric, just set the stage for us and tell us what was happening in the war in the days leading up to this rescue mission. Sure. So by Friday it was the end of the fifth week of the air campaign that uh Israel United States was waging against Iran. In retaliation, Iran had closed the Strait of Hamus. That sent gasoline prices here in the US skyrocketing and economic reverberations across the globe. And in the polls, the war was also unpopular, but the administration was trying to sell the point that they were winning. This was a successful military campaign. And that the United States had actually achieved air dominance over Iran. Trevor Burrus, Jr. Meaning that they controlled the airspace over Iran . That's what our military was saying. That's right. And then early Friday we got the news that an American warplane had actually been shot down over Iran. The first time that had happened in the in the war. And so this was a real jolt that wait a minute, you know, we've been hearing from the administration that everything's the United States has such control over the skies that they can fly just about any mission, then suddenly we hear about this F fifteen E strike Google plane getting shot down. Trevor Burrus And what was the plane doing in Iranian airspace to begin with? So we don't know exactly what its mission was, but most likely it was carrying out a mission to strike one of these many military targets. It's a heavy-duty bomber, drops bombs two thousand pounds or more on targets. And so it's been one of the world workhorses of this campaign. And who was in the plane, Eric? So the F-15E is a two-seat plane. You have a pilot in the front, and then the officer behind him is called a weapon systems officer. These are both Air Force pilots, fairly experienced. So early Friday morning over Run, this F-15E gets hit and they immediately eject from the plane. The first thing that happens in an ejection is the canopy of their plane pops off. They then eject one after the other, but it's a few seconds apart. So when they parachute down, they could be miles apart. They don't land in necessarily the same place. The winds could be different. There's all sorts of variables that make it difficult to determine exactly where they land. So once this happens, the military is immediately alerted that there's a problem on the ground, and they go into search and rescue mode . Now, these aviators are wearing special vests in their flight suits that have communications on them. They have a special beacon they can use to signal their location. And within about six hours, the pilot is scooped up, you know, by search and rescue teams. It was came under fire, but they were able to get him out of Iranian territory and back to Kuwait. And the other guy though, at this point, what does the military know about him? So the problem with the weapons systems officer was hours went by and they had no contact with So they don't know if he's injured, they don't know if he's dead, they don't know that he's captured, they don't know anything. Exactly. And they're worried about that. But this is how pilots are trained. They want to get to someplace safe and someplace where they can communicate their position without being detected. What we now know is that he climbed this 7,000 foot ridgel ine. Even though he's injured. 7,000 feet. Yeah. He's scrambling up, you know, this rugged mountain space, and this is in southwestern Iran. Again, it's now in daytime . And he is scrambling up, but he's also conscious that he doesn't want to be seen or detected. So he eventually makes it up to the top, even though he's kind of bloodied and injured, he makes it up to the top of this ridgeline and he finds a crevice to hide in. So meanwhile, the military still doesn't know where he is, and they enlist the CIA to help them. The CIA has all sorts of super duper technology, including some, it seems to be possibly very secret surveillance drones that would help them locate the aviator where he may be. And sure enough they do . And they pass along that location to the Pentagon. And at right about the same time, the aviator who's been in his mountain hideout, he surfaces to communicate on his beacon. Think of it as a super duper beeber. That'll communicate a signal, an encrypted signal, to the Americans looking for him . Okay, so at this point in time, Eric, obviously this airman is trying to evade capture by the Iranians, but can you just explain the stakes of that a little bit? So the stakes are huge for both sides. For the U.S., they're following through on their cred o to leave no service member behind. And they'll basically pull out all the stops to do it. For the Iranians, however, this would be a huge propaganda coup if they can capture an American airman and bring him back to Tehran and parade him in front of the cameras, here would be another way that they could push back by saying, We've got one of your service members and we're going to use him and leverage with whatever bargaining we go forward with. And this matters so much that the Iranian regime put a huge bounty out for anybody who could help locate the airmen. And by some accounts it was much as sixty thousand dollars for people who if they could turn in information to the Iranian forces who are searching for him now . So it basically sounds like this is a race against time at this point. The airmen knows that he has to evade capture, the Iranians know that the US is probably looking for him, and the US probably knows that the Iranians are trying to grab him, right? That's right. So both sides kind of marshal their resources. The Iranians send out s multiple search parties looking for this guy. Again, they've offered this bounty, so everybody's on the lookout for some kind of American air man in a you know or a parachute or any signs of life from where this guy is. On the other hand, the Americans, they mount this massive operation, dozens of aircraft. They get SEAL team six and other special operations guys mustered, they got to try and get in, allocate this guy, and get him out before the Iranians on the ground can reach him. And so they come up with a deception plan because they're trying to buy time for this military search and rescue force to get there on the scene. So again, the CIA comes back into this picture here and they basically start putting out word covertly that they've already recovered this guy and he's over here, miles and miles away from the actual location. What they're doing. The whole objective here is to confuse the Iranians on the ground to think, you know, where is this guy? Is he over here? Is he over there? We see bombings happening all over the place . We hear these messages that are fake messages saying, you know, the Americans have got this guy. He's coming out by the coastline. No, no, he's over at this mountain line. It's all to buy time for this big rescue force that now knows where the guy is hiding. They just have to get there in time to grab him . So the United States sends in under the cloak of darkness these two C-130 cargo planes that are especially made to land in austere land airstrips. And inside the aircraft are several small helicopters. Because remember, this guy's up on top of a 7,000 foot mountain. They don't have time to hike up there and they can't land anything in that. So they have to get a special helicopter that's small enough to get to this area and fly up. So off they go, up the mountain, and sure enough, the aviator is there. He's waiting for them. They come in, their guns are firing to keep anybody else away. They pick him up, and it looks like this amazing drama that's now gone on for over 24 hours may finally be over. I'm actually getting texts from sources saying we've got him. He's safe. He's recovered. And we're about to publish our story when somebody else says, whoa, wait a minute. There's a problem. There's a serious problem . The problem is as these C one thirty planes are maneuvering to try and take off again, getting they've got all the helicopters back in, everything's ready to go. Gets stuck in this kind of sandy, dirty soil. It's apparently kind of wet as well. And so they can't move it. So after all this, these planes are stuck in the mud essentially, stuck in this dirt. Physically stuck they can't move. They're physically stuck. They can't move it. They're trying to figure out. Finally, they just say, we can't do this. We have to go to plan B . And in this case, it means they're going to send three new planes, different planes, in to basically, get the comm ando team as well as the downed airmen. And so this means that the Americans have to buy themselves more time. And what they do until these new aircraft can arrive is they basically, create a ring of fire around this airbase where they're basically blasting away from high-altitude bombers, anybody that gets near it. So the replacement planes finally arrive. They were able to load up the commandos, get the airmen on board, and off they go. One, two, three in succession. One plane takes off, then about 15 minutes, the next plane takes off, and finally the third plane takes off. The last thing they do, the military does, is they have to destroy hands. So this is kind of the irony of all this. At the end of the mission, they actually bombed the planes that we're helping to rescue. Wow. But by now, the three aircraft are airborne and they're on their way to Kuwait. The airmen is being treated aboard , and soon he and the pilot, who they've obviously been treating, will be on flights to Germany in a medical hospital there . So the successful rescue gave President Trump a huge And we're here today to celebrate the success of one of the largest, most complex, most harrowing combat searches . I guess you would call it a search and rescue mission ever attempted by the military. Where he praised the military. He praised the CIA. So in a breathtaking show of skill and precision, leafing Talking about only the American military could have pulled off such an amazing rescue operation. Rescued the stranded officer, destroyed all threats and exited Iranian territory while taking no casualties of any kind . But despite this , this still leaves a very unpopular war that's created all kinds of economic consequences around the world, and obviously in the United States, and it still leaves many of the president's strategic goals unfinished. Hi. You're a regular listener of the daily. You like knowing what's going on in the world. Well, you could know way more if you subscribe to the New York Times. I'm Michael Simon Johnson. I'm one of the producers that makes the daily. What we can cover on the show is really just a sliver of the incredible reporting that's being published every day in the New York Times, unexpected, insightful articles you might never otherwise come across. For me, that's this piece about how states legally classify butterflies. It has to do with whether they're considered wildlife. It's hard to explain, but it's fascinating and you should just read it. The Times obviously delivers the vital, essential news of the day, much of which we cover on the daily, but there is so much beyond that to explore. And yes, you support all of this journalism when you become a subscriber to the New York Times, but you also get to experience it. You get your curiosity fed. You get to know cool stuff, and you get to be informed about what's going on in the world. You can subscribe at nytimes dot com slash subscribe the United States and the Trump administration are obviously touting this rescue operation as a huge victory. How are the Iranians viewing it? Well, the Iranians are also touting it as a big victory, for different reasons, of course. They were successful in shooting down the first American combat plane. No doubt about that. They also basically demonstrate that the Americans don't fully control the airspace, as Secretary Heggseth has talked about this air dominance, that they are still able to launch ballistic missiles and drones. And in fact, some of our other reporting has indicated that the Iranians are still able to fire off about 15 to 30 ballistic missiles every day So they still have significant capability, whether it's to fire at American warplanes or to fire at energy infrastructure around the neighboring Gulf countries. It's still a significant problem, and thus it shows the Iranians still have some will to fight and some capability to fight. Given all of that, what does it tell us about what the United States has actually accomplished in the war? Because right now, this is week six. And I bet that a lot of people had either assumed or understood that the United States had destroyed a lot of Iran's military capabilities that, as you've said, seem to be working to some extent. That's right. So you've got a military campaign that by many measurements is actually succeeding. The United States military, along with Israel, has been able to destroy or degrade much of Iran's missile program , much if not most of its drone program, its Navy and its Air Force. But two things can be true here. You can still have a resilient Iranian military that's able to pop off missiles and drone when it wants at the same time where the American military is badly degraded what the regime can do long term. But the political goals, the political and strategic goals are not necessarily on track. The president has given contradictory explanations as to what his end game really is here. And at his news conference, even as he was touting the success of this rescue mission, he angrily lashed out and threatened the Iranians to if they don't come to the bargaining table and have a resolution to this by some time on Tuesday night. That is such an existential threat that he is making. I feel like this rescue mission, this victory that he just had, has almost emboldened him in some way, just listening to some of these threats. Well, you know, it's it's interesting because a lot of us thought that it would actually chasten him. It would kind of show him the risks of this kind of military operation when the so much of the success of it hinged on the rescue or not of this one airman. But I think you're right, Rachel, that he has basically taken this and said, you know what? This amazing American military machine that I have, they can do just about anything. And I'm going to take this rescue operation and I'm gonna double down now and I'm gonna increase the threats and use this bombing power that I have to go after this infrastructure that supports not just the military, but millions of civilians across this countr These power plants, for instance, are used both by the military as well as just regular civilians. And many legal experts say this would be unlawful. This would be against international law to carry out these kind of strikes. Before this plane went down, Eric, on Friday, and this rescue mission happened, so much of the reporting on the war focused on whether there could be some kind of an off-ramp. And I wonder if both the United States and Iran are claiming victory right now after this rescue mission. Isn't that some path to an off-ramp? It's possible, certainly, and listening to the president at the news conference, he is still at least saying he wants a diplomatic res olution to this. And in fact, Iran on Monday submitted a new ten-point proposal that included terms that would allow for some kind of protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but it would also include the lifting of sanctions against Iran. Now the Vice President J.D. Vance is going to be traveling to Europe lit this week, so it's possible he could be involved in meetings if these negotiations were to get further along, but much of this is still unclear , and a lot of experts that we talk to still believe that negotiations are a long ways off. So where we stand right now is that the president has set a deadline as of now it's Tuesday evening for the Iranians to either capitulate and accept a US proposal for ceasefire or face a barrage of attacks on its infrastructure. How should we be thinking, Eric, about where that leaves us in terms of what stage of the conflict we are currently in. Well, I think if we were to be hopeful, we could say maybe we're on the brink of some kind of resolution where both sides could try and claim something out of this. But I think we're still a long ways away on some of these key issues. And the president seems to be moving in the direction of escalation, of threatening more bombing, even if it takes days or weeks. The Iranian regime, however, believes they're in the driver's seat right now. They have the leverage by still holding on to the Strait of Hormuz, that economic bottleneck that they have grapped so quickly, and by being able to shoot down an American warplane, by able to continue to fire at energy infrastructure around the region , they've demonstrated that even though they're badly degraded in terms of military equipment, they still can launch a punch every now and then. And so I think both sides are hardening their positions at a time when at least the public rhetoric is to try and find an off-ramp. This rescue operation, as we have described it, could not have been more cinematic. And also, it is coming at a time when the administration is really struggling, I think to sell this war to an American public that is looking at the gas pump and seeing prices go up and up and up, and wondering why are we doing this? And so it feels like you could not have handed the White House a better narrative than this one, this unbelievably heroic story that shows American military might, ingenuity, bravery, that, as we said, could have been ripped from a movie. I think that's right. And I think the White House and the Pentagon are going to try and milk this for as long as they can. The success of this operation is cinematic and the rescue of an American airman are dramatic. But in the end, look at what you're left with. You're still left with the Straits of Hormuz closed, economic hardship throughout. You're still left with a hard-lying government that thinks it's winning, not losing. And you're still left with this fundamental problem of how do you deal with this nearly thousand pounds of highly enriched uranium that's buried deep underneath the Isfahan site. And what do you do with that? The president said on Monday that that is still his main goal is to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. But he has not laid out any of the objectives on how you do that . So even with the military success overall, and even with this very successful rescue of these two airmen on Friday, the administration is still left with a lot of really difficult problems to address. Eric Schmidt, thank you so much. Thank you . We'll be right back . Here's what else you need to know today. Four astronauts in the Artemis II spacecraft made history on Monday afternoon, when they officially reached the farthest distance from Earth that human beings have ever traveled. The astronauts passed 248, 6 55 miles, the record set by the Apollo 13 mission in 1970. And they passed behind the far side of the moon, seeing parts of it never before observed with human eyes . And