Long Term Consequences for the Alliance

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As the US and Iran try to reach a lasting end to the war, a major threat has emerged, the volatile conflict in Lebanon President Trump needs Israel to stop attacking Hezbollah there in order to get Iran to agree to a deal But many supporters of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu feel betrayed by Trump's actions Today, my colleagues Ronan Bergman and Mark Mazetti explain the growing tensions between the United States and Israel And how this moment is testing a decades old alliance It's Wednesday, june twenty fourth. Ronan, Mark, welcome back. It's great to have you both here again. Thanks, Analie. Pleasure being here. Thank you. In the last several days, we have seen a stunning break between the US and Israel who entered this war in Iran as partners and are now very clearly at odds over how it ends. And this is a split that you both said was already developing in April, the last time you were on the show And so I want to start by asking how big of a deal is the rupture that we are seeing over this new ceasefire and peace negotiation? I think not only there's no at least not in my vocabulary English or not even in Hebrew There are not enough words to describe the magnitude of what we are seeing from the point of view of Israeli politics of Netanyahu's legacy present chances to be reelected And of course, from the point of view of the Israeli public Three times he was able to convince Trump to allow him to strike in Iran. Then he convinced Trump to join him in June And then he convinced Trump to fulfill his life dream a joint U. S. Israeli strike together in order to topple the regime Until then Everything went very well for him This overnight shift of the American administration is the undo of everything for him Yeah, is it fair mark to say that now the strength of that alliance between the U S and Israel is in question now that we see the terms of this MOU between Iran and the United States Yeah, it's not only fair to say it, I think it's also even potentially an understatement. These two countries knew how to get into a war, but they had no idea how to get out of it. They were on or they are on two totally different pages about the outcome of this war. And once the war didn't go according to the most wildly optimistic comes that they hoped it would in the first few days, things began going off the rails, the relationship started to fracture, and this is where we are today Walk us through how we arrived at this point So let's go back to when the MOU was signed last week and where things stand right now Iran's regime is still in place Iran's ballistic missile force is diminished, but still intact. Iran's nuclear program which was ostensibly the biggest reason for carrying out this war is very much diminished, but the future of it is sort of for a later negotiation. They've sort of punted that issue So the main goals of the war haven't been achieved evenven President Trump said, Sir, you shouldn't let them have any missile. When asked about Iran's missiles, Trump said, Well, I said, well, they're allowed to have them. What am I going to do? A going let Saudi Arabia have missiles, but they can't have them Yes, sir. Kent doesnt work that way, you know implying that if other countries like Saudi Arabia, like Israel have them, Why not Ian? missiles aren't the problem. missiles are They hard a little location, but they don't blow up the planet Of course, there is the sort of central issue of Hezbollah and Lebanon and the fact that this new agreement restrains Israel's movement's freedom to hit Hezbollah is now restricted. And this is, I think, as we talked to the last time we were on the show, a fundamental issue for Netanyahu politically because he's made this pledge that He will protect Israel from Hezbollah. Right. Israel wanted to haveave these two issues the fronts totally separated The Hezbllah issue and the Lebanese issue out of the agreement, that the agreement will only deal with Iran, the U.S., nuclear, etca Iran wanted to make the connection because they felt their debt because K Bi intervened to help them. Now they need to help b Iran won Israel is in this kind of extraordinary position where because Iran just had so much leverage in these negotiations and the US agreed to these terms, Israel's ability to fight Hezbollah is now restricted, even though Israel was not at the negotiating table and they wouldn't have wanted this sign the deal anyway That's right. And so we ended up on ground where Iran came out with the better end of the deal So what has the reaction been in Israel So usually the massive machine of mouthpieces for Prim Minister Nan and the Israel media The radio stations and mainly in channel fourteen, there's a TV station They think maybe can be equivalent to newsmagics on steroids Very, very supportive for Netanyahu. Doesn't matter what Netanyu does can flip and turn and he can say one thing and the next day, the other, they will support him And also, until last week, they also supported Trump. their admiration, their compliments, their flatick to the president was second only to their attitude towards Prime Minister Netanyahu. But the second it came s clear that Trump is going to sign the agreement. They flipped all of them al Russia. And they started a slandnder campaign. They said that that Trump betrayed Israel. J M But They turn on Vice President Bz V Heck M Mi Rocello, Vere Berbe Vzar Gvlod Bantishemut Lishma They called him anti Semite. They said that he is the legitimizer of terrorism The legitimizer of hisbala. Wow . And I think the worst was what they said against Kushner and Witkof And one of the pain anchor person for Channel Fi said that because they're Jewish. What? Aonim Kahotanut work case S speicat out. I know it sounds Unbelievable. But in the Israeli television They said that they are Jewish Jew boys You know snder terms about Soes They said that They received bribe from Qatar Once they identified the enemy Vice President Dance and The two advisors They don't care. they just lashed on them. Ronan, can you just decode that? Be it sounds really difficult, honestly to parse. these are Israelis who are lobbying anti Semitic attacks against Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff What is happening there These people They don't care about anything except one thing which is to support Prime mininter Netanyahu Someone, I know called them the Zomibi They do everything Prime Minister, what to do have support any of his policies. The other thing is that they always look for a scapegoat Whatever goes wrong for Nanyahu They look for someone to blame. Now, they cannot blame the head of the military or the head of Mossad, the head of the Sidbed, or the attorney general The only person they could blame is President Trump You're saying essentially that they'll sink to any level in order to defend Netanyahu even if that means perpetuating these anti Semitic tropes They will do everything they believe can assist im Minister Netanyahu Yeah flapping the blame on someone else, even if this includes anti Semitic phrasing And ruin relationship with someone who might be the next president of the U.S ministers, Dough Netanel tried to keep on a short leash They were a little bit more disciplined. They didn't went down to this level. Anim Lam Skif all Belvanon. Anavim. Lam Sk that's my They did say Israel is going to defend itself whether against Iran or against Lebanon Israel Hv Rmohuta who gotut V toagit Ao Abitoni Malay, Mona Fac Cium The corn is sonar. They say If the situation is so bad And we are all alone, there's only one person who can take care of the situation and knows how to handle this situation. O course Prime Minister Netanyahu. whatever the truce agreement WU says Israel will continue to do whatever it believes it's necessary and believe it's necessary Israel will continue This is basically led to an ongoing more friction and more clashes between the Israeli and American administration. Government figures are essentially saying we will defy the truce when it comes to fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is pretty amazing. Yes As that happens, that elicits a reaction from the vice president, from JD Vance. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world Talk to me about that. Yeah, Vance comes out publicly and is extraordinarily blunt, he said, to Israel, effectively, we're your only friend in the world Two thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars And you should be grateful because we're keeping you afloute. We're defending you. And anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in. Be careful in your criticisms because we always have the ability to cut off the things that help defend Israel So with this veiled threat of cutting aid, cutting military equipment, which of course, Israel does desperately need from the United States, but it's sort of playing this card which you have not seen a senior American official, certainly American vice president do perhaps ever. that you've seen people in their system Benavere and Smofridich who have attacked the deal. And I guess my response to them would be What is your exact proposal And then Vans also talked to our colleague, Ross Dfitt and said that these two hard right ministers in Netanyahu's cabinet, Ben Gavir and Smotrich should not be attacking this deal without offering any other way out of the war. You know, you're a country of nine million people You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have Taken together, this was just quite a remarkable set of direct criticisms of Israel from the Vice president Yes, and then late last week, we're starting off with some breaking news this morning as you're taking a live look right now at the Israel Lebanon border Hezbollah attacks into Israel, which elicits an Israeli military response on Beirut Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed at least seven people includcluding two children, hours after reports emerged of a ceasefire agreement, creating this flare up that once again really imperils this very fragile deal This is not a reality we can accept. And this is exactly why the IDF continues to operate in Southn Lebanon And in that way, Lebanon is sort of looking like the center of the question of whether this will hold or not Right, Iran said briefly that the strait had been closed again. and again, it seemed like maybe this whole deal was off. This was really a moment where everyone looked and said, oh no. Israel and Hezbollah are possibly going to sink this entire peace negotiation? That's right. And I think that's really where the danger is right now is that Hezbollah has moved from the periphery to the central front in the future of peace between Israel, Iran and the United States. and to this question of control. just how much Iran can keep Hezbollah in check So it doesn't blow up the deal And how much the United States can restrain Israel from attacking Hezblah alsoso, which might potentially blow up the deal Cancer is loud when it enters our lives. 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Donate today at doctorswithoutborders dot org slash the daily This podcast is supported by Bank of America Private Bank You're cut from a different cloth And with Bank of America Private Bank, you have an entire team tailored to your needs. withith wealth and business strategies built for the biggest ambitions like yours. Whatever your passion, unlock more powerful possibilities at privatebank. bankfammerica. com What would you like the power to do? Bank of America, official Bank of the FIFA World Cup twenty twenty six. Bank of America Private Bank is a division of Bank of America NA member FDSC and a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation Okay, so The stability of a deal here hinges on whether the fighting in Lebanon stops, which in turn hinges on how much control Iran and the U. S have over their allies. That's right, correct. So Ronan, let's start with Hezbollah How much control does Iran have? Because as we saw, Hezbollah continue to send drones over the border to Israel after this deal was signed. That attack provoked a response Iran has the full control over what Hezizbollah is doing I suspected the Jones was sent as part of the Iranian tactics to improve their position in the negotiation because from their point of view, it's a win win If Nitanyui reacts or did the idea have to react then he gets himself into another conf confrontation with Trump. If he doesn't, then he gets into a confrontation with isult constituency at home is base Because they say you're not reacting to what Kbala is doing What you're saying is that what we saw in terms of the attacks was Iran potentially intentionally baiting Israel here Because if they didn't want Hezbollah to attack they wouldn't have. Yes. and more You R I think believes it can control the level of the fire without jeopardizing the deal leading to further friction between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump And at the end to an anger of the president, that would lead to forcing Israel not just to a ceasefire, but to a total withdwal from Lebanon In a sense Ting to set up a pitch battle between Trump and Netanyahu, stirring the Does that feel right to you, Mark Yes, although I think there's a dangerous game here that Iran might be playing. And they recognize that, right? They do not want to return to a full scale war They have locked in an agreement right now that is very favorable for them, right Yeah. Effectively, all they had to do was open the Strait of Hormuz, and now they've got a lot of money coming to them in what were frozen assets, right? So a return to a full scale war imperils that deal, but also brings a lot more violence to the country of Iran T Ron's point, I think there's this question of if they can the sort of temperature at the right level where it can continue to imperil The relationship between Netanyahu and Trump without going back to a full scale war. And that's the sort of danger here But thus far they've been playing it quite well And it seems like the bet Iran is making right now is that Israel will react really forcefully to any attack from Hezbollah by, for example, attacking Beirut. And that kind of response has gotten President Trump's attention recently. I think they could do better in a bad way. With respect to Hezbollah. Right? That's right. When two drones are shot into the desert and dropped Harmlessly, you don't have to knock down buildings in Beirut They could behave better. So Netanyahu has framed these attacks as defensive, right? We are responding to Hezboahist attacks on Israel and we have a right to defend ourselves. So we're going to hit into Beirut. That is also a card that Netanyahu will continue to play to see how far he can push Trump and test Trump's patients, right? Kning as we said earlier, Netanyahu has this sort of political situation where he has to deal with the security of Northern Israel for his own political future But also he can't entirely blow up his relationship with President Trump. So he's going to see how far he can push it Okay, I want to turn to the question of how much Trump can do to keep Netanyahu in check. Because obviously whatever the incentives and reasons that Israel has for attacking Hezbollah in this way, Th These kinds of strikes are precisely what threatens a deal that Trump seems to care very much about preserving Yeah, I think that since Trump became president again Netanyahu showed highigh sensitivity. notot to cross that line to force Trump to outcast him publicly when he felt that Trump is just about to explode. He said, Okaykay, I obey Something is different now Nitsanyo maybe has now a different calculus. The calculus is the coming elections And he believes that if he is just obeying Trump, he will come up is something very, very weak canannot stand up to an American president and is trying to say to his constituency, I am not obeying President Trump when it comes to national security And this road lead to further friction between them That in a sense tells us that Netanyahu may be thinking he has more to lose in obeying Trump than to gain from it. Prim Minister Netanyahu, I think is deliberating between Obeying Trump or going againgst him and supporting a much stronger war in Lebanon I don't think that he already made a call But his call will not just impact the relationship between him and Trump. It will also impact the deal between the U. S and Iran. And Mark How is Trump responding to this test of just how much his ally in Netanyahu will really follow his lead Well, so publicly, he is flexing He's basically pointing out how much he kind of controls Netanyah. He said, in fact, a direct quote that Netanyah will do whatever I want him to do. okay I think he's also willilling to give Netanyahu some space to a point Any that is going to blow up this deal that Trump desperately wants That's the breaking point It sounds like for Trump, the core tension is how much does he care about preserving this special relationship with Israel versus how much does he care about preserving this deal with Iran and how far he's willing to go to make sure that it doesn't fall apart I think President Trump has shown that In his view, alliances are dispensable if they get in the way of something he wants In this case, what he really wants is an end to this war and a deal And moving on before the November elections He's thinking about his own political future Obviously, Mark, the big thing President Trump could do is make aid conditional on this ceasefire sticking Beyond rhetoric What is the actual leverage the U. S has Would Trump use that Well, I think it's stillill unlikely that President Trump would takeake that drastic step to make aid absolutely conditional. And of course, he's not the only player here, right? Congress has a role But that was certainly the threat that JD Vance was raising when he told Israel, you know, back off, we're your only friend and we're the only one keeping you all safe. Right. But the fact that this is all being discussed now, that there's these real questions of, you know might the United States actually condition aid or pull aid? L we are in uncharted territory in the sense that just a few months ago, we were talking about this close U S. Israel partnership on the Iran W. If it's unlikely that the U S. actually would pull aid or make it conditional on the ceasefire sticking, Is it possible that Netanyahu may just say, okay, I'm going to call President Trump's bluff I don't think that Netanyahu would like to go down this road. He has already lost so much. in the Israeli public opinion that accelerating the clash with the presidency would only damage him more towards the elections. I think that Israelis don't understand How much damage Nanyahu's moves in the last You know six months And the way that it's seen that Netanyahu has convinced the president to go This adventure where the president Maybe this is going to be just another Venezuela D found himself and the U.S. find himself in the quick sands of the Persian Gulf And the damage of that will last for for very long time Natalie, let me just add that. we talked about Netanyahuu always sort of saying his great superpower was his knowledge of American politics and his ability to play American politics. And so it's sort of a great irony here that the legacy ultimately might be driving a bipartisan consensus between Democrats and Republicans against Israel and sort of driving this relationship ultimately into the ditch by the guy who said he always knew more about American politics than anyone else in Israel Right. And the other irony is that Iran may end up being this key factor that really drives a wedge between the US and Israel theoretically they theirre common enem Something that Netanyahu for decades has been trying to get an American president, any American president to do would be to attack Iran gets this moment and he gets this opportunity And this is where it ends up. And when you think about where this has ended up ad. is the damage to this relationship be smoothed over if the ceasefire ends up holding if the fighting dies down O has there been more permanent harm done here? somethingomething that could lead to a fundamental reshaping of this decades long alliance I think The future of the relationship depend on what would happen with Iran And what would happen with Kisbana becausecause Now Israel is sort of handcuffed by the agreement And if the agreement ends up with Iran having nuclear capability of sort, they having the higher rge uranium. Nothing would happen to the missiles. They would continue to support the proxies then the Israelis would have difficulty with that But this is for the future and for the negotiation with Iran I think Besides that the Israelis would be happy to forgive. would be happy to put this away. The Israel Lkes the U S more than any other country in the world by far And this friction, this reallys would be happy if this is over And Mark On the U.S side I think in the short term Things can survive in terms of the aid continuing. fences can be mended, things can appear on the surface to be basically normal However I do think that there is this fundamental shift in American opinion. That has played out over time, but it's been particularly acute in the last two and a half, three years Since october seventh, the Gaza War Tw Iran wars, the war in Lebanon. There's this view, especially among younger people, but not entirely among younger people who associate Israel with Netanyahu and they don't see the benefits of America's alliance with Israel, in fact, they see more negative And that is a political shift that it's hard to see reversing given where American politics are going, where Not only the Democrats, but the Republican Party is going And so this, I think, is sort of reflects what Ronan is talking about, the fear in Israel evenven if it hasn't sort of sunk in yet in Israel that they're losing America And I think that's a very real phenomenon And that could in the end, be one of the real lasting legacies