AI and Climate Change Challenges

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Inest involves risk including risk of ls zero doar commission does not apply to custers designated by fidelities as a profional equity trad. limited number of TTFs are subject to a service of one hundred dollars.ee dails ofidelity d. com comm slash commissions, Fidelity broervices LLC meber andISCSPC Last August, more than fifty thousand people made their way to a stadium in the suburbs outside of Washington, DC They were there to see Beyonce during her Rnaaissance Wor tour Mother nature wasn't making it easy there was a storm front rolling in People were waiting outside. the organizer said don't want to go out to the seats where you're exposed to lightning strikes, stay in the concourse. That's Steve Adelman presresident of the Event Safety Alliance He's a sports and entertainment lawyer who works on live events And he spends a lot of time thinking about how things could go wrong. His biggest concern is usually the weather The organizers of the Beyonce concert only thing they didn't account for is that on a hot, steamy August night in the DC area putting thousands upon thousands of people in the concourses comes a health and safety disaster. because people got dehydrated and started fainting in the concourses. Edelmann works in just one of the many industries that hinge on weather Live event planners, airlines, retailers, farmers They all have to plan ahead and make weather related decisions Because as it turns out There's a lot at stake When is the storm likely to arrive What is the nature of the storm The downside risk of leaving everyone in harm's way when there's lightning in the forecast is extremely bad Free Economics Radio Netork. This is the economics of everyday thingsings. I'm Zachary Cracket Today, weather forecasts From the time he was eight years old Peter Neeey knew exactly what he wanted to be when he grew up You'll see this kind of thing time and time again for those in our profession You know, they were five years old and they saw a tornado at their grandmother's house or they experienced a big blizzard and they just sort of knew it Peter Neeelely was right He's now director of weather forecasting Sciences and Technologies for the Weather Company We're probably best known by some of our brands like the Weather channel, weather. com, Weather Underground. Predicting the weather requires a number of skills First of all Fundamentally, understanding the physics of how things work likeike hot air rises How much will it rise and how quickly will it rise How does a raindrop form willill it stay in the cloud or will it fall out of the cloud and become precipitation That's also sort of governed by details of what we call the cloud physics. We then can embody those details of the physics in algorithms Scribe evolution of the atmosphere based on a current state of the atmosphere Meteorologists reread the current state of the atmosphere from a huge host of observational tools that continually record data. We've had instruments to measure humidity, temperature, and barometric pressure for more than five hundred years But it wasn't until the nineteenth century that organized weather observation networks were formed across the United States Over the following decades, tools like the telegraph, the radio Sand, and radar allowed meteorologists to collect a wide range of data and detect patterns that can create a forecast By the nineteen forties, it started to become clear that making accurate predictions required a lot of fast calculations making it task for a computer overver the last seventy five years since the advent of supercomputers They've just incrementally gotten better and better Supercomputers digest all that data and feed it into algorithmic models crafted by scientists The meteorologists then interpret the output to predict what is most likely to happen next in our atmosphere precision by which we can run these models increases as there's more computer capacity going on. the science that's in the models gets better And so our forecasts have gotten better by about a day per decade And what that means is The forecast For five days in advance today bout as accurate as the forecast for three days in advance twenty years ago That improvement has meant good business for Neilly and his colleagues In twenty twenty three, a morning consult survey put the weather compomany in the top ten most trusted brands alongside UPS and Kleenex It serves more than three hundred million people each month through its digital properties alone And it was recently acquired by a private equity firm for more than a billion dollars There's a good chance if you're watching the six o'clock newews tonight, you're seeing a weather show, which is largely produced by the weather company or at least using the technologies and data from the weather company When it comes to predictions Even the weather company can't account for everything. We fundamentally don't know The temperature five miles above the ground out over the South Pacific Ocean right now We can make a good guess of it, but we fundamentally don't know it And we'll never be able to know what the temperature and the precipitation and the moisture and everything is at every place all the time There's this little gap between how good we are now and the theoretical limit to how good we ever could be Lots of folks are trying to narrow this gap Can they? That's coming up Payfidelity Wh can I remember to invest every month With the Fidelity app, you can choose a schedule and set up recurring investments in stocks and ETFs That sounds easier than I thought You got this? Yeah, I do Now, where did I put my keys? You will find them? whereere you left them Testing involves risk, including risk ls Fidelity Broker Services LLC member NYSE SIPC The economics of everyday Th is sponsored by Mint Mobile Mint mobile plans are only fifteen dollars per month Wondering what's the catch There isn't one. There are no gimmicks and no gotches. Just unlimited talk text and data, fast reliable coverage on the nation's largest five G network, and an award winning care team. That makes MintMobile a catch. You can bring your current phone and your number, choose from three six or twelve month plans, and say goodbye to a monthly bill. Ditch overpriced wireless with mint mobile. It's so easy. Sign up online and get three months of premium wireless service for fifteen bucks a month To get your new wireless plan for just fifteen bucks a month, go to mintmobile. com slash economics. That's mintmobile. com slash economics. Cut your wireless bill to fifteen bucks a month at mintmobile. com slash economics. That's it. 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Wh knew Interest in the weather has never been greater, which means there's money to be made The global market for forecasting services has recently been valued at over two billion dollars. That includes things like subscriptions, apps, advertising revenue from weather stations, and special weather services purchased by businesses Wall Street has taken an interest in weather too There's now a twenty five billion dollars market. built around buying and selling weather derivatives. Basically bets on future weather patterns within a certain period of time. Yet, up until the last decade, the mightiest tools for gathering weather data like satellite and radar systems belonged mainly to government agencies The weather company iss Peter Neeey says that's been changing. Increasingly in the last ten years or so, been an advent of commercial enterprises employing their own weather observing equipment. and oftentimes it's some new technique that will provide us a different way to observe or learn some more about what the atmosphere is. Private companies have been able to launch satellites into space to measure atmospheric conditions All because the cost of doing so has dropped significantly over the last few decades. Hundreds of millions of dollars to around five million doars in some cases All those satellites have been contributing mountains of additional data which helps increase the accuracy of forecasts For these companies, the cost is worth it. My study a couple decades ago estimated that over thirty percent of the total U.S economy is dependent on the weather in some form or other you know agriculture foundationally dependent on the weather Transportation is disrupted by weather events a lot. Construction onward and onward. a lot of ingrained dependency in the weather fewew fields are more dependent on weather forecasting than the aviation industry where expensive decisions are made on a minute by minute basis. Certainly at the Weather Company, we have meteorologists who are embedded inside some of the major airlines around the country sitting next to and helping them make decisions, for example, should we put a little bit more fuel on this flight? Because when the flight gets to New York There might be thunderstorms in the area which will cause the flight to need to circle around for a little bit because of delays of arrivals into the airport And if we put a little bit more fuel on that flight The chances that it might actually need to be diverted to an alternative airport go down When it comes to the airlines, it's easy to see the value of ever more precise weather predictions So forecasters find ways to measure how confident they can be in their forecasts One big factor is what's known as atmospheric stability. which is notoriously hard to measure Yeah, that gets a bit tricky and it has to do with the chaotic nature of our atmosphere When it's unstable, the little differences at the beginning translate into big differences at the end The thunderstorm is a representation of a very unstable atmosphere. And so If we don't get the temperatures exactly right We may not know whether or not the atmosphere is going to be stable or unstable According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Since nineteen eighty, the US has seen three hundred and eighty three weather events, with damages exceeding a billion dollars And so, meteorologists are increasingly turning to another tool to help individuals and businesses tryry to make better decisions when it comes to weather Artificial intelligence has hit the scene only in the last two or three years or so prorogress has been nothing short of stunning