Brexit at 10: What comes next? With Anand Menon

How to win at AI (if you’re not the US or China), with AI minister Kanishka Narayan

Jun 26, 202639 minSummary

In this episode of The Economics Show, host Samaya Kaines sits down with UK Minister for AI and Online Safety, Kanishka Narayan, to explore the nation’s strategic position in the global AI race. Rather than attempting to compete directly as an AI superpower against the US and China, the discussion focuses on how the UK can leverage its unique strengths to remain a key player. Narayan breaks down the AI stack—spanning physical infrastructure, model development, and applications—and argues for a surgical approach. He highlights the UK's potential in niche areas such as computer vision for robotics, drug discovery, and materials science, where the country’s academic and industrial history provides a competitive edge. The conversation also addresses the challenges of national sovereignty and "strategic leverage," particularly regarding access to critical chips and frontier models. Narayan emphasizes the importance of building state capacity, such as the AI Security Institute, to manage risks and foster international partnerships. Finally, the episode touches on practical hurdles, including grid capacity and the need for creative planning reforms, as the UK seeks to balance its burgeoning AI ambitions with the protection of its creative industries.

China wanted western tech. Now, the tables have turned. With John Minnich

Jun 19, 202642 minSummary

In this episode of The Economics Show, host Samaya Kainnes and guest John Minnich, assistant professor at the London School of Economics, explore the history and strategic mechanics of technology transfer in China. The discussion centers on how China successfully leveraged market access to secure foreign innovation, a practice that initially caused significant friction with Western multinational corporations and policymakers. Minnich explains that China’s developmental model was not unique, citing historical precedents like the United States in the 1800s and later, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. However, unlike those countries, China was not a U.S. Cold War ally, which forced it to trade market access for technology rather than relying on geopolitical cooperation. The conversation details how China utilized joint ventures and local content requirements to build industrial giants in sectors like high-speed rail and wind energy. The pair also analyzes why these policies saw uneven results, examining the complex challenges of the automotive and aviation industries versus the export-reliant semiconductor sector. Ultimately, the episode provides a nuanced look at why industrial policy has returned to the global stage as Western governments now grapple with whether to adopt similar strategies to compete with China.

The US-China decoupling fantasy, with Jessica Chen Weiss

Jun 5, 202632 minSummary

In this episode of The Economics Show, host Sama Aainnes sits down with Jessica Chen Weiss, Professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins, to examine the complex economic relationship between the United States and China. The discussion moves beyond the common narrative of an inevitable, zero-sum struggle for global dominance. Weiss challenges the popular notion of China as a monolithic, master-planned juggernaut, highlighting instead the inherent contradictions within its own system. While the Chinese leadership has successfully pursued greater self-reliance, this strategy has often come at the expense of domestic household income and consumer spending. Weiss argues that the idea of full economic decoupling is a fantasy that would only serve to harm all parties involved. Instead, she advocates for a pragmatic shift toward identifying non-strategic sectors where both nations can benefit from trade and cooperation. The conversation covers critical topics, including the weaponization of supply chains, the realities of China’s domestic policy limitations, and the necessity of finding a way to coexist. Ultimately, the episode encourages listeners to move past the rhetoric of "great power competition" toward a more nuanced, realistic approach to managing global economic interdependencies.

How to win a trade war, with Paul Krugman and Chad Bown

May 29, 202630 minSummary

In this episode of The Economics Show, guest host Paul Krugman sits down with longtime collaborator Chad Bown to discuss their new book, How to Win a Trade War. Moving away from the traditional economist’s consensus that championed free trade, the authors explore how the global economic landscape has shifted toward a more confrontational, power-based system. They examine how the breakdown of the rules-based order, driven by factors like China’s industrial policy and geopolitical tensions, has forced nations to rethink their approach to economic interdependence. Krugman and Bown dive into the complexities of modern trade, questioning whether current protectionist measures, such as those used by the United States or discussed within the European Union, are effective or even sustainable. The conversation highlights the "messy" reality of modern trade policy, where nations must navigate supply chain vulnerabilities, national security concerns, and the delicate balance between domestic industrial capacity and global market efficiency. Ultimately, the hosts argue that while there is no simple fix or return to the status quo, understanding the history and mechanics of trade conflicts is essential for navigating an increasingly chaotic and fragmented global economy.

Can African countries mimic Asia’s economic success? With Joe Studwell

May 22, 202628 minSummary

In this episode of The Economics Show, host Samea Keynes sits down with economist Joe Studwell to analyze whether African nations can replicate the dramatic economic success seen in Asia. Studwell, author of the seminal book How Asia Works, compares the developmental trajectories of both continents. He posits that Asia’s rapid growth—led by countries like Japan, South Korea, and China—was driven by a specific policy mix: strong support for smallholder agriculture, a focused push toward manufacturing, and strategic manipulation of financial systems. The conversation explores why Africa has historically struggled to achieve similar benchmarks, with Studwell highlighting factors such as low population density, a high disease burden, and a lack of early infrastructure. He argues that the historical narrative blaming African governance alone overlooks these structural challenges. Despite these hurdles, Studwell expresses cautious optimism. He notes that agriculture is already flourishing in many areas, and as the continent’s population grows, internal demand will likely drive a significant manufacturing boom. Ultimately, Studwell remains hopeful that by focusing on clear, proven policies and emerging regional success stories, Africa can move toward a more prosperous economic future.

Should economics have fewer taboos? With Alvin Roth

May 15, 202625 minSummary

In this episode of The Economics Show, host Samea Keynes speaks with economist Alvin Roth about the role of markets and why society should reconsider its taboos surrounding certain types of economic exchange. Roth, who views marriage and labor as complex matching markets rather than simple commodity transactions, advocates for a more nuanced approach to market design. A central point of the discussion is the urgent need for a regulated, ethical market for kidney donations to address critical organ shortages. Roth argues that current bans often lead to inefficiencies and suffering, suggesting that a well-designed system could save lives without exploiting vulnerable populations. The conversation also explores other contentious areas, such as surrogacy, sports betting, and the influence of prediction markets. Furthermore, the pair examines the ethical boundaries of economic research itself. They discuss the backlash surrounding experiments conducted on junior economists on the job market and the broader question of whether economists are sometimes overly squeamish about testing new procedures. Ultimately, Roth emphasizes that when societies ban markets based on moral discomfort, they often inadvertently facilitate unregulated black markets, suggesting that deliberate, transparent design is a superior alternative.

Will AI help the Fed conquer inflation? With Austan Goolsbee

May 8, 202631 minSummary

In this episode of The Economics Show, host Samea Keynes sits down with Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, to explore the complex relationship between artificial intelligence, productivity, and the future of monetary policy. Goolsbee provides a measured perspective on AI, acknowledging its long-term potential to boost productivity while cautioning against short-term hype. He emphasizes that economic history shows technological adoption is rarely instantaneous. A central theme of the discussion is the "grubby question" of how AI-driven productivity gains interact with interest rates. Goolsbee warns that if markets fully anticipate future wealth from AI, it could lead to an inflationary "wealth effect," prompting businesses and consumers to pull spending forward. He draws parallels to the late 1990s, where similar optimism necessitated proactive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to prevent overheating. The conversation also touches on leadership transitions at the Fed, the role of forward guidance, and the importance of maintaining diverse viewpoints within the Federal Open Market Committee. Goolsbee advocates for a more deliberative, debate-focused approach to meetings, reinforcing the value of independent thought in navigating economic uncertainty.

How will falling fertility rates hurt the economy? With Melissa Kearney

May 1, 202633 minSummary

In this episode of The Economics Show, host Samea Keynes sits down with economist Melissa Kearney to analyze the complex economic and social implications of declining fertility rates in the United States. Kearney, who recently directed a study on demographic headwinds, argues that while some may view falling birth rates as a private matter, the macroeconomic consequences—ranging from fiscal strain on entitlement programs to reduced economic dynamism—are significant. The discussion explores why the current U.S. fertility rate, which has dipped below the replacement level of 2.1, presents a long-term challenge. Kearney highlights a concerning generational imbalance, where a shrinking working-age population faces mounting pressure to support an aging society. They also examine the phenomenon of labor market congestion, where older workers remaining in the workforce longer can crowd out career advancement opportunities for younger generations. Throughout the conversation, Kearney emphasizes that while policymakers often look for quick fixes, such as minor financial incentives, there is little empirical evidence that these measures can easily reverse deep-seated cultural shifts and economic pressures like housing costs. Ultimately, the episode serves as a thought-provoking call to reevaluate how society balances support for the elderly with necessary investments in the youth and future workforce.

Why didn’t the Iran war cause a recession? With Tyler Goodspeed

Apr 7, 202632 minSummary

In this episode of The Economics Show, host Sama Kainnes sits down with Tyler Goodspeed, chief economist of ExxonMobil and author of Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It, to examine why the global economy remained resilient despite the dire recessionary warnings triggered by recent conflicts in the Middle East. Goodspeed argues that modern economies are better equipped to absorb energy shocks than they were in the 1970s. Key factors include lower energy intensity per dollar of GDP, a more diversified energy supply, and the strategic use of stockpiles. He highlights that recessions are rarely the result of a single event; instead, they are usually the product of multiple, compounding shocks. Goodspeed further discusses why common predictive indicators like the yield curve often fall short, comparing them to newspaper horoscopes. He also explores the structural differences between the U.S. and U.K. economies, explaining why the latter was historically more insulated from recessions due to its national banking system and coal usage. The conversation concludes with a discussion on speculative bubbles—such as the current interest in AI—and the sobering reality that recessions, rather than acting as a cleansing force, primarily hinder long-term growth and innovation.