Arsenal Interest in Bradley Barcola

Welcome to the football boardroom. withith Henry still embedded in the England camp out in Kansas. I'm here in London keeping an eye on developments both on and off the field We're going to talk about a recent landmark legal case between Burnley Football Club and Everton Football Club We're going to take a look at SpurRs's new transfer strategy. and in general catch up on what we see in the transfer market so far Please don't forget to subscribe And I hope you like the show Christian, Hi, good to see you I'm still embedded in the England camp, still delighting after that performance the other night. But I mean just looking at events back home, I've been particularly struck by whats happened with the Everton Burnley legal case I'm particularly just trying to get my head around the ramifications of what that means for those two clubs but also for the Premier League and other clubs going forward. I mean, there's just this open just a whole door for more lawyers coming into football boardrooms. what's You're the man to talk to about this? What's your reaction to what's happened? Well, I agree with you, this is a landmark case and for thoseose of our audience who haven't followed it closely. in the wake of Everton being found guilty of breaching atual fair play rules and as many of our audience will know which culminated in a six point penalty. It has been ruled by a panel of judges. There was a direct causal link between Everton breaching those rules and Burneley being relegated. The fact that the penalty was applied later has been ignored by this group of judges and essentially they have concluded that Burneley would have stayed up on the balance of probability if Everton had not overspent in that season. And the court have awarded Burnley an enormous sum of damages to compensate them for money lost as a consequence of being relegated somewhere between thirty five forty million pounds. I should say immediately a that Everton have appealed this verdict. and I think the whole of football Premier League and the groups for sure will be waiting with bited breath to see if Everton's appeal to overturn this verdict succeeds. They may have to wait some time. I don't think it's going to happen overnight But it is a seismic moment in terms of a complete change from a world where really the Premier League, like much of football has been a sort of closed shop for discipline. And obviously, if this verdict is not overturned, the implications for football are pretty significant in terms of other clubs using this to try and claim compensation when they have been on the wrong end of sporting outcomes when clubs have been found guilty of breaching rules. Just before we get into the ramifications, how do you prove causal links between someone spending and something that happens on the pitch, because you can look at clubs and say, oh, they've spent one hundred, two hundred million pounds. And actually it's not necessarily affected their position in the table that much There seems to be an acceptance that it has helped that the twenty one twenty two season that they they were looking at in terms of the breach. There was an element of sporting advantage confirmed by the overspend. But How much of a jump is that? and how do you prove a causal link to someone else then going down? Can you literally just say, look, we are spending more on wages, we are spending more on players, therefore we are more likely to stay up. But football and sport doesn't always work that way Well, in the case of the panel they used would you believe essentially statistical modeling to Analyze whether or not in effect Burnley's relegation was or was not. directly. consequence of Everton's overspending. and this this statistical modelling, would you believe produced an outcome, a result that the panel took into ultimate consideration, that there was a fifty one point seven percent chance Burnley's relegation was a consequence of Everton's overspending in that season. Or to put it another way, the balance of probability and that's all they had to prove as a panel, all they had to decide was that the balance of probability was that Everton's overspending led to Burnnley's relegation. Really tight I mean that's what one point seven percent swing on a balance of probability. You love your numbers. You know the maths. That's tight. Yep, it's been described by many commentators as effectively a coin flip verdict. I think the appeal will without doubt dig into whether or not, really, a mathematical model establishing probabilities is the right way to think about the relationship between spending and results. There are many other variables that contribute to a team's results Just think of a few off the top of my head, refereeing decisions, injuries, you name it. There is an element of chaos. to the way football plays out, which I think many people would feel more accurately reflects reality than a mathematical model, let alone a mathematical model where the result was so close to fifty fifty. I think it's very clear that that will be homed in on by Everton's lawyers in the appeal and there'll be other procedural aspects as well. I was quite struck by one point of procedure, which is that the panel that made this watershed ruling would you believe, was the same three panel members who originally ruled on Everton having breached FFP. if you remember when that first ruling came out They awarded a ten point deduction, which almost everyone in football felt was wrong and extremely harsh and it was rather quickly overturned to a six point deduction. Seems strange to me that those three people who were perceived to have basically got that Wrong would then be put in post to rule on Burnley's claim. And Why on earth did that happen? Surely no, but I'm fairly sure that that will also form part of the appeal. But I think for our audience's benefit, I just want to, I think finish on this by by landing why I think it is seismic, why we're sitting here talking about it today If you think about it, Henry, if This verdict stands and it is established when a club is found guilty of breaching financial regulations that that directly causes another to lose the chance of being in the Premier League It could also be applied to the argument of losing the chance to qualify for Europe or losing the chance to finish three places higher, which makes you another nine million pounds a year in revenue So the notion of loss of chance flowing from being found guilty of FFP applied by many clubs in a situation where a club is found guilty. Now we know that so far Everton Forest and Leicester have been found guilty of breaches of regulations, and so I'm sure clubs will be looking at those three seasons and those three and seeing whether there is any argument that that cost other clubs, real revenue opportunities, But of course, the thing that's hanging over all of us which could have wide ranging implications is of course the Man City case, which I know has dragged on whichich I know, of course, Man City have denied all those charges, but in the event they were found guilty of having breached any financial regulations. in any number of seasons then you could see from top to bottom in the league. how many clubs might be tempted to use this to claim compensation. So As I said at the OS. fromrom our fans and audience perspective here This appeal will be watched by everybody in the Premier League extremely closely. It could have wide ranging ramifications if the verdict isn't overturned, and that's why I wanted to mention it today. I mean, as you say, the ramifications How does the Premier League keep a lid on this? You've been in the Premier League boardroom, you've been at three Premier League clubs. How can they actually get all these this sort dysfunctional family or actually avoid such things because as you say, this is going to scar every season, isn't it Well, I think a couple of things that people perhaps don't realize it's actually enshrined in Premier League rules that a club is allowed. via the internal disciplinary procedures of the Premier League, so not with recourse to English courts of law, so So still staying within within footballs, shall we say, rather closed shop legal and disciplinary system, but they are permitted to seek compensation if it can be shown that they have suffered loss because of another club breaching regulations. So that's been in the rules for a long time. A very old concept of English civil law, this notion of loss of chance has been applied within the Premier League's disciplinary framework and that is what has such potential wide ranging ramifications as you suggested describe it as a potential Pandora's box of claims if applied broadly across all sorts of breach. I have a funny feeling this verdict is vulnerable. heel. ll certainly be watching with baited breath when that result comes through. CP can I throw some other numbers at you? fifty two million for Van Hecker Spurs it looks like from here have been quite busy? or did we expect that? I mean, they've got Robertson and Sanesi have come in. They're being linked with Tanali, I believe. What is happening at Spurs? They seem to have arere the owners putting money for it? Is this deserby? They seem like deserby signings? Yeah, I've been quite struck, you know, in the several World Cups where I was in post in football clubs It really did go extremely quiet and I've been struck by few clubs trying to get quite a lot done while you're over there enjoying yourself and spurs have caught my eye all the most because as you say The volume of activity they've managed to get done already. I think it kind of reminds me of my time at Villa in the summer of twenty twenty. I get the feeling that the owners of Spurs have more or less said to their management team Never again We cannot put ourselves in a position where we're flirting with relegation, exactly as my owners said to me in the summer of twenty when we survived with the last kick of the game West Ham And that summer, you know we basically built the spine of a completely new team signing more expensive, more gifted, more experienced players who've gone on to have great careers, by the way. I sense that's gone on at Spurs. and think I think there's a secondary element to it. One is Never again do we want to be flirting with the bottom of the league for a club of our scale and magnitude and with owners, frankly, with the resources they have. And I think secondly, there has been a subplot really to draw a distinction between the way the club is run now versus the way it was run under Daniel, specifically, I think in the area of being willing to sign players on higher wages. I also see from the CEO's comments, from Vini's comments, a sense that they having recently been focused very much on younger players, bringing in a bit of experience, epitomized by taking a player like Andy Robertson on a free transfer but albeit I suspect on very high wages. So they're definitely backing Derby. They're on the front for building out a team that has a bit of experience to add some quite exciting young players. And I think they're worth keeping an eye on this season. I always say to you, Henry the most appreciated advantage in Premier League football is when a good manager with good players has no European football. And I got a feeling. S spurs are going to go well this season with Deser Be very much now at the center of their strategy. I mean, he's almost become a sort of a manager at the club as we've seen with managers higher up the table in terms influence. I mean Van Hcker is obviously a player he knew from Brighton wanted to bring in as you say this all the more Experienced players, but I take absolutely your point. They're going for more experienced players. They're also going for leaders as well, particularly a player like Robertson and Van Hecker to an extent. But also they're being linked with Matches Fernandez, who we thought was very much interesting Manchester United. I' see the midfielder at West Ham. He's only twenty one And ye but I think Tanali is Tanali Tsali's first choice And And it's interesting, you know, Thinking about Deserbe You know, there are very interesting links between Derb and Tonali Deserbe comes from Bussia in Italy and began his life there and also ended up playing there as a professional footballer Tanali came through at Bresia as well. I sense that that is their number one target. What better way for Tottenham Hotspur to symbolize a shift in their approach O than buying a twenty six year old international footballer from Newcastle in the form of Tanali for B money big wages and that would be the symbol of the deserbi regime really kicking in. I am struck by how hard they're going at that, how early they're going at that I think it'll be interesting to see on the other side of that deal, Henry whether Newcastle will learn the lesson from last summer I've sensed in the briefings in the last couple of weeks, particularly around the very rapid sale of Anthony Gordon to Barcelona at the end of the season. There's been a lot of messaging out of Newcastle, sensible messaging But last year, they've realized hanging on all summer for the inevitable exit of Ezac, going finally on the last day of the window That drawn out process actually meant they missed out on a lot of targets and no one really knew where they stood So I have a feeling that they'll want to resolve the Tonali issue much, much earlier than they did the Eac issue. It's inevitable he's going. That's my view And I think that yes, other clubs will be linked But if I were Spurs, I'd be pushing really hard now Maybe just maybe you've got to hit the magic number to get it done. really quickly, but I don't think Newcastle this summer are in the market for drawing out sales if they can get them resolved more quickly. So let's watch that one. What's the rumblings back in London about Arsenal making a bid for Barcola, who's already lit up this What's actually I have to say he's been for the amazing World Cup so far. But with Barcla with France, the goal the other day, how much is there in this interest of Arsenal who need a left sided play? I they can play either side with with Barola because that would be quite exciting signing for the champion. Yeah I my sources are telling me, you know Barola for those of audience haven't followed it closely Obviously had another brilliant season at PSG after an injury mid season, struggled to get starting slots with Kovveratgalia and with Du both sides and Den Bailey through the middle. I don't think Bakola started a quarterfinal, semifinal or the final of the Champions League player of that ability, as you say is already lit up this tournament, not home grown, very few of PSG's players are. He came through the Leon Academy They paid, I think forty five to fifty million euros to Leon for the boy. I'm hearing he wants a move to England Arsenal are looking like they're at the front of the queue at the moment. As you say. We said in our Arsenal episode how we felt Ateta would be tasking his sporting director Andrea Beta with the task of bringing ready made starting players who improved the eleven player who has starred for the European Champions for two years running. and is getting serious minutes at the World Cup for the favorites for the for the World Cup France he definitely ticks the box of an elite player who would start for Arsenals. So I think that's one to for and the balance of probability is, I think that deal gets done. When? less clear, but I'm pretty sure that is a marriage made in heaven. So all in all a Sitting here as I am in a very warm and sunny London I am struck by the fact that where as normally I think most agents would be literally on the beach or on their boats. U and a lot of chief executives would be taking a little bit of rest time I am struck that some clubs are trying to get some strategic business done while the World Cup is well and truly underway. I'll keep an eye on all that for our audience and I will enjoy in the meantime like everyone else tuning in for my three games a night, although I confess I haven't yet made the two AM kickoff. I'm glad you've been enjoying it and keeping your eye on all baldroom issues You enjoy your time in Kansas and I will Well we will see our audience next week with our latest update H hope you enjoyed it. See you Corevad Aazzona Is that a word In the twenty twenty six Kyiaportage Turbo hybrid, it might as well be, because it can be one road trip. It's all about turbocharged power and hybrid efficiency working together. So you get the thrill of quick acceleration and the satisfaction of fuel efficiency. Book a test drive and keep the adventure going. Kia, Mment that inspires Call eight hundred three three three four KiM for details. Always drive safely.