Arsenal Squad Building and Future Outlook

Welcome to the football boardroom. This is our first post season show and Henry is embedded in the England camp down in Florida, getting ready for the World Cup kickoff We're going to talk about all those England players that may be on the move this summer. Who are they? Where do we think they're going and why But before we get to that We're going to talk about the big breaking news overnight, Ireola to Liverpool Please don't forget to subscribe We're going to be putting episodes out throughout the World Cup and we don't want you to miss them Re really hope you like the show CP Hi, welcome from Florida It's great to see you HN you're in Donald Trump country. I saw you saw you had a jog last night down towards Mar aago. Did you survive the seecret Service Yeah, I mean, I don't know how close you can get and also the humidity here is absolutely quite lively. but I mean I have to say, World Cup Fver hasn't quite hit this state, which is actually hosting one or two fairly important games. It's all Stanley Cup, it's all NBA. There's even been a little bit of polo going on on the screen above me. Otherwise it's Nicks against the spurs and it's not the sppurs that we've been talking about on previous podcasts. So I'm sure it'll ramp up But England are out here warm weather training and looking, I have to say, in fantastic shape Well, look, I think for our audience' benefit, it's going to be fantastic having you moreore or less embedded in the camp and I guess this is the first of our summer shows where we're going to make sure you stay across everything on that side of the pond. Little old me, I'm here in quite a Cld and cloudy England, the weather has turned and yet the activity in the Premier League is still pretty full on and of course, biggest news in the last twenty four hours is that Liverpool seem. extremely close to confirming Iola as their new coach Yeah, and that is I think it's terrific news for them. Obviously it was a bit of a shock when on a slot left, the timing of it, I think as much as anything. I think it was pretty significant that the fans had turned and they do sound like, I mean, you know the owners. they do sound like owners who do listen. We've seen them react to fans before ticket prices and issues like that. I think Mo Salar's comments, which probably reflected the views of a lot of the fans as well as clearly his own Dsatisfaction with the sort of direction of travel and particularly the style of football, the lack of heavy metal, you know, harking back to the much loved Jergen Klop days But you know, this needs to be a little bit of perspective. I mean off of thoughtot did win title in his first season. He was voted manager of the year in his first season. There were mitigating circumstances in terms of the terrible tragedy over Gioga Gota, injuries of some of the players. but look Cub gave him a lot of money and the team went backwards Yeah, well, I think a couple of things you mentioned there, the issue of the fans You know this better than most. You know, I I got my job at Liverpool in two thousand eight oh nine because I was a Liverpool fan and tootally unsuitable Americans at Basically Hicks and Goillette. Yeah. Hicks and Jillette essentially on a copycat leveraged buyout, you know, borrowing a load of money, copying what the Glazers had done at Man United. Unlike Man United, Liverpool got in financial trouble when results weren't quite there. Fans weren't having it and I got put in as a fan to get rid of them. And so I've always felt that Femway know better than any owners just how damaging it can be if you lose the fans certainly at Liverpool foootball cllub. arguably their opportunity to buy the club came from the fact that previous owners had so alienated fans they had to go. And so yes, whilst they don't always get it right first time up do seem to listen and It was very clear. I think several months ago actually, that the fans weren't having the football under A the slot and that was a big factor. That said, you've talked about timing, it was a bit strange because the messaging did seem to be consistently he was going to get more time changed on the backke end of last week really quite dramatically. and my suspicion is that contrary to again what we're reading. Seeing Chelsea move so quickly to grab Alonzso would have been a bit disconcerting. He would have featured on any short list for the Liverpool. Because he's a very good coach or because he is this Liverpool legend B. He's a title winning manager in Germany One of the most elite footballers of the modern game, World Cup winning, Champions League winning, title winning player as well as making a brilliant start to his coaching career So he would have been on any shortlist and I have to say, speaking, you know, Speaking as somebody who knows the way Liverpool fans think he would have been top of many people's list. And he went to Chelsea and fair play to Chelsea. They haven't got a lot right this season. But I think they turn the tables all those years ago, I remember when Liverpool moved extremely quickly to sign Jurgen Klop when they sensed Chelsea might be moving on him Even though it's quite a long time ago, historyies repeated itself. I think Chelsea moved really quickly the morning after the FA Cup, they announced Alonso going there. and I think that left Liverpool's options narrowing if at the end of the season they were going to decide to move slot out. They were still briefing that they were keeping him then last week, back into last week, probably the other person who would have been top of a shortlist, Ireola. was rumoured to be talking A to Lea Kusin in Germany, B to AC Milan in Italy. And I think probably when Push came to shove, they thought If this guy lands at one of these two clubs, and if Arnna slot starts badly in the new season, the two stand out replacement candidates are going be on long term contracts at other clubs. And not only would our options have narrowed, they might have disappeared completely. And I think that was a big factor, more or less in changing their mind on slot moving and I expect we'll see Aola confirm later today. Yeah It might be because I'm looking at things for a worldld cup prison being out here. But do you think there was an element of it seems to be quite a few owners moving quickly to try and get their managerial business done before but before the World Cup. and obviously it helps, you know new managers settle in recruitment, preseason probably I mean, I know two managers who who are traveling around here, not working as pundits, but just keeping an eye on players and keeping an eye on their own players of the clubs that they oversee. But it does seem to me that Club's owners are moving quickly. Well, I think we discussed, didn't we for most of this season the likelihood of a merry go round in the summer. And it was very significant in my opinion that by the end of May The big six were all sorted and indeed Liverpool looked to be sorted by keeping on the slot and now change. So we've talked about the fact it really is so important to have in the building, working with the management team on the outs and inss that inevitably fill the diary in the summer. And whilst that will be different during the World Cup, World Cup years tend to affect timing of the transfer market really hotting up, and I think we'll talk about that in a minute. But fundamentally, the sooner you have the manager there, the better. So there are a couple of other outstanding positions in the Premier League and we'll see how they land. But yes, Liverpool have moved extremely quickly in the last few days. We've been talking about Liverpool and obviously You know Kenny Stlish. very well. I've written two books with him, Obviously John Barnes, the news from him and Kevin Keeegan as well. I mean, these are three Liverpool legends. C I mean I know we swap messages, but can I ask, you know, what's what's I mean, you know Kenny particularly well this, you know, Kenny Kenny's revealed effectively inadvertently that he's got cancer Yeah, it was it was extremely shocking news when that broke I just wish him and his family all the best fighting this and a nice speedy recovery and of course the same for two other Huge club legends in John Barnes and Kevin Kegan. Yeah, a sobering moment yesterday when everybody was talking about the arrival of a new manager when that story broke. Absolutely sending support. to the three of them. But as you say, very sobering where we put football and this great game that we love into perspective We are at the stage of the season where managers are moving and players are moving and one of the players I watched yesterday and looking very sharp, although he didn't get the number ten. shirt, which has gone to Ju Bellingham, but was Morgan Rogers and look, you know Astonvilla very well. It sounds from The sort of mood music last night is that they were going to fight to keep Morgan Rogers. He's obviously being linked with Arsenal who really needs someone on the left. I don't think I mean, Martine Elli, you know, he's not elite level. Morgan Roggers can play. They obviously can play more as a ten as well. So there's a logic with Arsenal being linked to him I mean, Astonvilla got an amazing deal when they brought him in from Middlesborough, I think it was eight million and then six million add ons and then five hundred thousand if he appeared for England. And now he's you know absolutely first chang at number ten for England So Do you think when they come out with suggestions like that is that they were going to fight to keeping? Is that a sort of the negotiation dance to push the price hike, which absolutely it should be? Or do you think that he will move Well I think the first thing to say about moves moves to the people you're standing on the touchline watching in sweaty Florida is that I was struck by a statistic. I looked at the Euro twenty four England line upp and squad. after that tournament None of the. Let's see the sort of view it as the starting eleven change clubs and only three of the twenty six changed clubs. I think it's worth pointing out that clubs over the years have been badly burnt by tournament purchasing Tarl Pobolski There's been many I think Liverpool's most notorious was Al Hj def after the two thousand two World Cup, an almost perfect example of the genre. And so I think over over a number of years, certainly speaking to other club execs, people are very wary about that phenomenon. So it doesn't follow that we will see a particularly active transfer window. But right now talking England players out there that you're watching. Yeah, I think it's no coincidence that there's a lot of speculation about Morgham Rogers. We have seen in the last few years, a number of really top players not at the Big six sold for regulatory reasons And we've often seen it done at this time, I in May or June and just for our listeners's benefit, our audience's benefit because in the case of a club that is really struggling to comply with Premier League rules on how much money they're allowed to lose in their financial year Most football club's year ends are may thirtieth or in some cases june thirtieth So if you need to boost your profits to comply with the Premier League rules for the last five, six years We've seen a number of clubs selling a player in May or June to balance the books again. examples we all know about Ellia Anderson from Newcastle to Nottingham Forest was a very good example of that. and Villa themselves have had to do it. over a couple of summers last year, it was Jacob Ramseay I, Newcastle I think there was a narrative in the last couple of months that Villa might have to do the same thing. And by the way, last week Anthony Gordon moved from Newcastle to Barcelona incredibly quickly after the season ended in May, and there's a good chance that was to help Newcastle boost their profits. Now the good news for Villaans, I'm not sure it's permanently good news, but the good news for Villafans is I don't think there is pressure to do a deal this month for any villa player. But I do think the less good news is that Villa like Chelsea before them, have been operating with a UEFA financial fair playay agreement. It's called a settlement agreement. and more or less, it means that they have to comply with some quite tight regulations, regulations that are tighter actually than the Premier League from UFA. and practically speaking, Henry, what that means is if Ui Eemy wants to Change the squad, improve the squad, grow the squad and managers like U A Emmeray always want to do that then I'm sorry to say that under these UEFA agreements, more or less He'll have to move somebody out to bring anyone in the nature of the agreement, thinkink of it as balancing the book. If you want to bring a player in You have to move somebody out for the same price on the same salary So that's where I think things are going to get interesting this summer, probably when the World Cup' over. If Uai wants to make changes and I think he will players will need to leave and that brings us back to you know, who in the marketplace is going to be the most desirable villa players. And I think most people would say Morgan today is kind of like Jack was when I was there. He's the outstanding player. He's probably the most valuable player. I mean if Jack went for one hundred million pounds three, four years ago, why wouldn't Morgan? that'll be the asking price or more? one hundred million I think it'll be at least one hundred million pounds There's a sell on to a cut G I think that goes back to Middlesborough. It's been reported at twenty percent. so they'll factor in that. Obviously England players go for that, you know, this's almost like a sort of luxury inflationary element to to England players. The other player Again, I'm sorry for Villa fans who love this guy. No one loves him more than me But I think Emmy Martinez is a big, big earner at Villa And he al went last year, didn't he? He was heavily linked last Heavily heavily linked. so true. And I sense again if somebody actually came in for Martinez on reasonable transfer fee then that would create a lot of headroom because they wouldn't have to pay a replacement goalie anything like the wages of a World Cup winning goalkeeper. So these are the sort they're going to have to box clever. It's a trible terrible thought, but More or less, when you get in trouble with UEFA, it's even worse than the Premier League. It's kind of like The Finance Department of UEFA is running your transfer strategy You know Hello, youefa. I want to bring this fella in And they say, yeah, well, who are you getting out? Nope, sorry, you can't. So it' it's let's not underestimate what these settlement agreements are like. And I describe it as a financial straight jacket, kind of like UEFa running, you Y sporting director department. That's what Villa are going have to cope with. during and after the World Cup, not in the next couple of weeks One thing on Arsenal, if Morgan Roggers does go there and it's someone at the close to the club mentioned this to me. He said that you look at Areta seems to be building an element of an English call there. I think this is what's most significant about Arsenal this summer I just have this feeling they will recognize the need to go again Take a leaf out of Alec Ferguson's book when he had title winning sides, he used to call it cutting off the tallest wall flowers going again strengthening And strengthening means with teams that have won a title and gone to the Champions League final, it doesn't mean having a deeper broader squad, which was another strength of arrsenal this season, by the way I think the challenge now is to add world class players who go straight into the starting eg. Okay, so who? justust go out in the field this afternoon. okay Let's look at them Marcus Rashford You know, Will he won't he go to Barcelona, it's quite clear that you know, Man United really don't want him to come get no sense that that's on their agenda. So he's a top class player who is certainly available. Elliia Anderson we're going to talk about, he is certainly available for the right price and is likely to be an England starter at the World Cup. You know, would they be upgrades on what they've already got? Yeah Ellot Tanderson's an upgrade on Zubber Mendi. Absolutely. Rashford is an upgrade on Martinelli or I mean, I quite like Trosser because he always chips in. he never lets you down but you don't my point I do take your point, but I think, well let's take them one by one. I mean, you look at Rashford Do Rasy want to come back to England? I mean, you know the only time I had a proper chat with him, he was his eyes were very much set on the continent I think partly because of the scrutiny over in England, whether that's media, whether that's fans. I think the key to Marcus is seeing him play with a smile on his face and he's been doing that at Barcelona. So but look, you've been looking at the Barcelona situation with Rashford And obviously it's been complicated really by Anthony Gordon coming in Anthony Gordon's not going to start ahead of Rashford for England, judging by all the vibes from Thomas Toull who adores Rashford, whether it's going back to his PSG team getting taken apart by by Rashford, you know, when he was in his Manchester United pomp But I mean, Rashford in training, I mean, wow, I mean, I've never seen a collection of people. Gave him the number eleven I noticed on the tele last night. He did. So talk me through that sort of where you see Rashford going? Okay, well bear with me, I need to do some numbers here for our audience. You love your numbers. Crunch some numbers for me Okay, so Marcus Rashford has two years to run on his Manchered United contract Widely reported to be on about three hundred twenty five thousand pounds a week which means by the time you load in employee costs, employer costs, I should say probablyrobably a nineteen to twenty million pound a year Cost. to Manchester United putut another way if Marcus Rashford leaves a forty million pounds saving. Big money for a club that has been trying to get its costs under control So he went to Barcelona on loan. And that means simply that Barcelona picked up Some are all of his salary this season right now sitting here in the summer of twenty six. and by the way, Marcus, I think had twenty eight goal contributions for Barcelona, so has been a real success out there Gordon thing may complicate matters, it certainly makes Barcelona's interest less urgent, but I don't think it makes it any less likely. the most The most probable outcome here is that Barcelona and Man United find find a new deal. And the question is what that deal is. If Barcelona want to play cute They could sit and wait try and get another year on loan, notot have to pay a fee maybe get some element of the salary, not all of it As I've sat thinking about that, I really don't think that works for anybody in this deal. because I think Flick will want to know his team a lot earlier than august thirty first. I think Michael Carracam Man United would like to know where they stand a lot earlier. Most importantly, I think Marcus Rashford wants to settle and it's quite clear he's loving life at Barcelona So I think we may see a transfer, Hmry. and that probably is one of these deals where everybody takes a little bit of pain in other words Cocus may have to take a pay cut Manchter United may have to take a reduction on what they would expect to be paid as a transfer fee. Barcelona are going to probably have to give Marcus a bit longer than they might otherwise have done. And when I add all that up I call it the ten million pound give backack deal. If Marcus was to take five million off his salaryqu is currently earning best part of sixteen, seventeen million quQid If he took a five million pay cut for the last two years of his deal That's a ten million contribution If Man United instead of getting twenty six million the option took fifteen million. That's a ten million reduction Barcelona give Marcus an extra year on the end ten million pounds maybe be thirteen forty million euros That feels to me like the sort of deal that gets done. Three year deal be ten million pounds a year and a fifteen million transfer fee And I think that would sue all parties and that's why I expect to see happen. Yeah, well, I mean, it's great that we're discussing these talalents who are being sought after by these great European clubs. It's also it's good that they're going to play in a league where there's a winter break and they might get a breather and it' keep them fresh for the summer and for future tourn well current and future tournaments for England. But it's certainly added a little bit of an extra intrigue, shall we say to training sort of the Barcelona dilemma And yeah, there's been a banter about oh, that's pure Barcelona with when Gordon had one finish as well. And I'm sure Rashord will will rise in a good way to that challenge. So just on, I mean Arsenal have a vacancy on the left, but just on the balance of Arsenal, do you see some outgoings at Arsenal as well Yeah, I definitely do. I think that, you know, you don't collect footballers and well Run cllub definitely won't want to collect footballers. So if I'm right and Stan Kronkey and Josh Kronkey agree with Mcl. I noticed he was on the front foot pretty much in the post match interviews that this is, you know, we get a day of celebration, but we go again and need to strengthen Building dynasties in football and in sport is a multiye commitment. That's what a dynasty is. It just continues to get better and continues to deliver year in year out. There's an opportunity for Arsenal to do that The rivals for various reasons are in transition arrsenal have been steadily improving under Arteta with steady ownership from Kromkey. So I expect them to go again. They will tidy up The squad And there will be more outs than inss, but maybe the quantity of outs will be higher quality of inss, I think will be much higher That's Berta's job. You don't hire a guy like Bertta from Athletico Madrid to you know go and sign junior footballers and build out your accademy program. And last summer, I'm not sure whether they viewed it as squad depth I think they probably hoped a few of the signings would have made a bigger impact in the first eleven this summer, I'm quite sure Arteta and Josh Kronkey will have said to Berta, go get us players that get in the starting eleven. And by the way, on Rashford, as we were just talking about Hmry, you know, the fact that he is flying, the fact he's coming off some fantastic stats, I was looking at twenty eight year old forwards, you know what the normal transfer fees are Harry Canain went for eighty five million quib when he was thirty Antoon Greesman went for the best part of one hundred million when he was twenty eight. Even Rommulou Lukaku went for eighty five million as a twenty eight year old. So So if you can pick up Marcus Rashford in the teen to twenty five million pound range on the back of twenty eight goal involvements for Barcelona It's not just Basa who will be looking at him And that's why I think a deal gets done because there will be competition. We saw with Gordon, if you get two big clubs in, that's all you need for the price to move up. and Bayer and Bassa went after Gordon and Newcastle got a fantastic result. So I think there'll be action around Marcus Rashford. And it won't be because he's played well at the World Cup. That's not the point It's because he's just had a really good year in Barcelona. He's his absolute peak Man United w him out the building. I see a lot of interest in that. You mentioned Michael Carrick And obviously you make quite rightly the point about Rashford very, very unlikely to go back there. I mean, last night they look like they brought in Edison from Attalanta, a midfielder. I have to say, I've not seen too much about him, but he's obviously he's not a Brazil squad, but he's obviously very highly rated But isn't the impression that you get that they still need a couple of more elite talents, particularly a player like Elliot Anderson, who you mentioned, could there be a tug of war between City who he's reported to favor and united because he would be pererfect, you know, that balance with a Menu and a Fernandez. I think the term and I hope I'm this because I think he would be tailor made for Mged United, but up my My take when I saw the news in signing the Atalanta midfield player is you know that that probably means they're not going to stretch for Anderson Actually, I think that's bad news for otham Forest because, as we saw with Gordon It takes two to tango and when you've got two deep pocketed Titans like Barar and Bayyon fighting for Gordon, the price moved up pretty quickly from I think starting at sort of fifty million pounds and ending very quickly at seventy. Well, I think if Man United and and manan City were in a tug of war for Elliot, then maybe the price moves at north of one hundred I think it's more likely that he ends up at City and United let that one go, which I think a lot of United fans might be sad about, but that's how I see that. Well, I'm going to go and seeee if I can turn on the television without being encouraged to get some botox. every time I watch it, it creases me up and then I'm going to watch them all think Dany come. I think I might need that. Well, I'm in the land of the beautiful, so I've got to raise my game. but As always, good to see you CP And we'll catch up next week L look forward to it see you next week, Age. Bye