Analyzing Quarterback Prospect Ty Simpson

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I love when the ESPN headline stack is all about what Howie Roseman is saying and just that he keeps repeating the same sentence over and over, which is AJ Brown is a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, which as an Eagles fan, you gotta be thinking as we head out of sort of the beginning stages of NFL offseason and get deep into NFL draft stages, which is what we're going to be talking about today. I love that the NFL so dominates that Howie Roseman's repeated comments about AJ Brown's status is one of the top headlines on ESPN.com this past week. Yeah, it's the click business, Chad. You're in the click business. We're not, we're not total sellouts, thank God, though. Like you've never told me to say something to go viral or anything like that, honestly, which is a blessing. Um, but that's what a lot of media is, right? There's a lot of people in sports media where again I'll never put a name out there because it's it's never a good look to just talk down on people. There are some people that I truly think are horrible for the sports media, spreading lies, and it just gets people going. And it's just it's such useless conversation now. The AJ Brown talk, it started last year, right? And I kept saying to you, the money doesn't make sense. The Eagles, if they were trading before last season, it was going to be like 50 million in dead cap. Well, you played the season, you heard he was gonna be traded at the deadline all season. It didn't happen. They kept it. Now there was drama, obviously, right? There is smoke where there's fire. But once again, people are acting like he's gonna be traded again. It's it's a dead cat move. So well, how we do it, I' think its after like June 1st, instead of being 30 million of debt cap, it's like under 20 million. Yeah, like to me, Miles Garrett, Max Crosby, those type of moves make sense. If the Patriots want to give up a first round pick for AJ , who's you know 29 years old, still has a couple good years ahead of him. Yeah, that makes sense. But um I I loved how his comments just because it's it's basically what it always is gonna be, right? It's like, I'm not gonna give anything because there's there's no no benefit to it. Same with AJ Brown's camp. You haven't heard AJ go on Twitter or go on Instagram demanding a trade because it would hurt his value. And he's just not that type of guy. He's the captain of the Eagles. He's one of the five captains. So um yeah, as an Eagles fan, I told you I was very bitter after the playoffs, those three drops. But now the cooler heads have prevailed. No, I don't want to move AJ. I want to have him and Devontae Smith. They're really good receivers. So um, yeah, this offseason, it's all about the clicks, it's the dead part of the year. So to me, Eagles fans like me, we get mad, we get riled up. We're gonna click on stuff to read it to see if there's any truth to any of it. But someone that again is in the business and talks to people, it's like everyone I talk to is just like, no, it's not gonna happen. At least not until June. So yeah, if you're New England radio, radio New England Patriots Radio , you need something to talk about for three months, right? So AJ Brown coming to your hopeful team, I think it makes perfect sense. But I'm sure you're as a fan of the Bears, if you're here every week that Caleb Williams is on the trading block, you'd just be like, this is stupid. So that's wrong. Well you know what's funny? Is when I I didn't I didn't think I was teeing you up to get angry about media and and give a media critique, I actually was thinking something entirely different, which is that's the kind of aura and respect and respect and mysticism that surrounds Howie at this point. He's been such a brilliant GM and such a master of manipulating the cap and building a roster that even when he's saying one thing about a star player, and I know this has been an ongoing drama, so there is interest in it, um, that becomes news. Is like he's reached the levels of GM where everyone expects him to figure something out that will make his team better and pull a rabbit out of the hat uh in ways that other other GMs just can't do. That that to me what was was interesting to me, that was the signal to me about the story, not a media critique that there's just nothing else to do, so they're going to make noise about how we don't. Like to me, there is a ton of drama. You brought up the referee drama. There is a lot of stuff to talk about. That's why I don't get why they keep getting a dead horse, but they have to get clicks. Obviously, they're getting clicks. That's why they keep talking about it. So, um, to me, this is as someone's a football fan, this is like one of the best weeks because you get a lot of interviews with coaches, owners. It's a great week if you're a football nut like me, and you want to hear people talk who don't really talk. So um, you know, you literally had Sean McVay who hadn't talked about that two-point conversion against Seattle, literally talking, you know, about it with the head coach of Seattle. And it's like, this is the best. These two guys don't like each other in the same division. They haven't talked at all. And now they're talking about a two-point play that is decided potentially the Super Bowl winner. So um, yeah, these winner meetings. I know people poo-poo them. I love it. Like, I can't get enough of it. I'm all into all the drum. I'm reading everything I can because it's a really interesting time and you know there's a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes. So um yeah, 18 game schedule, replacement refs, chad. There's there's a lot going on right now in the NFL. I youf're a fan of it, and obviously the draft, what we're about to talk about, which is the best two, three weeks, it's here, people. So um, yeah, time is time is moving pretty quick here in the offseason. Let's freaking do it because we're gonna talk about the draft with the help of a very special guest, a grizzled veteran over at Betting Pros, co-host of the very popul ar Fantasy Pros Football Podcast, right here in the volume podcast network. If you're not listening to that, you might be the only person because that show does massive, massive numbers, most importantly , absol ute fanatic , fanatic about betting the NFL draft and all of the trials and tribulations that come with betting the NFL draft. Not like, you know, who's the best offensive lineman who graded out at the combine on the second day of workouts? I mean, betting the NFL draft where the opportunities. Welcome to the show, Derrick Brown . Guys, thank y'all for having me. And uh I'm sitting here in the green room and I'm just nodding my head at all the how we talk and all these kind of stuff. And I'm giving Simon uh the business on the Eagles before we but I I have to be honest here um outside of giving him crap about stuff i do have a signed jalen hurts uh jersey on my wall in my office for a large sum of money that i won uh betting eagles and things like that so i i will come uh come clean here . Well you know what we appreciate that and we appreciate you you're you're agnostic when it comes to winning because clearly that's what matters in the end. But here's something else. What people don't know. And this to me is fascinating. Before you were doing any of this media stuff, you were working as a pediatric nurse at St. Jude's in Louisiana . That feels like a way hard job to do. And then how do you make that transition Oh, guys. Um a lot of part-time work, a lot of time where I never thought this would be a reality. We're currently I'm sitting in gym shorts and we're talking about football and that's how I provide money for my family. Um long hard road fought, guys, where you're doing anything and all things just to get your takes in front of eyes. And then at the end of the day, when you end up doing this for a job, you're like, really? Anybody cares about what I gotta say? Okay, cool. Let's rock it. Let's rock it. So it's been it's been a long uh winding road, but yes, from the medical streets to football uh 24-7 . Uh really, I mean, it's it's been one of those things where it was uh a hobby and a passion and I feel blessed to do it every day. What was it like being a pediatric nurse? Oh man. Uh you talk about things that were incredibly rewarding and something when I got into that field, I thought I was gonna do it until they rolled me off of the uh the the hospital floor in a wheelchair. I I thought I was going to do that until I was 60 or 70 or something. Loved it with every ounce of my being, um, especially with the population of kids that I got the chance to be a part of the uh you know of these kids and these families' lives for multiple years. You get close with people and you get invested and it really it really means something. So a lot of respect to everybody in the medical field. Yeah, we my it's so random. It's so random that that you're on the show today. Yesterday, one of our neighbors came over and in the morning and her and my wife were gonna take the dogs for a walk . And they we started talking about the medical field. Her husband is in the medical field. And about people who, which is not us, people who are like so warm and loving, like they they just have to be so selfless, right? And she started talking about how like when her kids were born, the nurses who were so warm and happy and excited that these babies were born. And it they weren't their babies. They were never gonna see these kids again. But like you could tell, like the genuine thrill they were getting just being in the room and being able to take care of these kids. That's who's doing that. That's you, Derek Brown. It's one of those things with nursing people really say, you know, there's a lot of fields in the world where you get into it because you love what you do and you believe in what you're doing and it's not about money, it's not about all these different things. Because if you did if you did it with that being the onus of why you're doing it, then you wouldn't be doing it. So it's one of those things you truly at the the end of day I got into it and and one of the things that you know it translates over to this field and talking about football is whether we're trying to make people better in one way, shape, form, or fashion or trying to educate people. Like I wanted to do things with my life where I felt at the end of the day I was helping people in some way, in some way. Well, listen, welcome to the dark side, where we're generally mercenaries and care about nothing other than winning and ourselves and the people that can help us win today. Derek Brown, that is you. Before we get into it, like for the uninitiated, the NFL draft a totally unique betting event, volatile, unpredictable, roller coaster for betters, more so than fans, even like from your point of view , how has and Simon you too, how is betting the draft changed since legalization? Because there have definitely been like big, big changes. The volume of markets, the timing and availability of the availability of those maca markets, the odds and the pricing . Both of you Derek, let's start with you. Give us your sense of the changes that have been taking place. I mean, the first few years we got this, and I've been betting the NFL draft for the last four years, covering the league full-time for the last six, and I mean you've seen the market shrink and you really have to be strategic in bets. Like I one of my best years in betting the NFL draft was the year that Jaden Daniels came out in that quarterback class, having him as my QB1. I was able to make a lot of money early, uh, with betting him as being like the second overall pick and and kind of forecasting that versus the mark and leveraging where I was versus that with information and what have you. Uh and you just you don't get as much of that now where you don't get lines that are dropping for the NFL draft as early as they did before. And a lot of that is obviously the books wised up after a few years of like, okay, we're not we're not dropping this stuff as early as we did before because that didn't work out well. So uh to a lot of the things you're speaking about, like the volume of bets that you're able to make even right now versus what you're able to do uh a week before the draft . And it depending on you know, you get more bet uh players out there in draft positions and different ways that you can bet it um it's definitely changed over the last three to four years where it's gotten more constricted you have less books or some books that are pulling back because obviously they're probably just taken a bath w uh for the first few years of it. Yeah. I mean Simon, you and I have talked about this a couple times and we go back. Our favorite betting story is you having to sweat will Mac Jones go third or lower in the draft, and you were heavy on him going lower because of intel you were getting, despite what the reporting was . But these markets, like a lot has changed even in the five years since Mac Jones was drafted . Yeah, I would say the worst part is what you know what we're talking about here. They just the first couple of years, they just wanted to be the first ones out of their lines, right? You still have the wind totals this year, right? Books are putting it out as soon as they can because they want that first initial wave. They want that first action compared to the other books. Cause most people aren't going to make one or two of those bets, right? And then you're done until said draft or until opening season, right? So it's change in the sense they're not so quick to get that money because they have been crushed and it's is way tighter. And to me, it makes me hyper focused on certain lines where I really do just play into the quarterbacks is to me that's the easiest way for me to get info. Um I , you know, am pretty locked in with a lot of teams and not like a lot of people in the business and especially people that bet the draft like that's their that's their thing, right? People that really lean in the draft and that props during the football season. The draft is a whole nother season for them, right? They really get into it. It's come even harder now to make money doing it, especially in clean markets. So um yeah, to me, you know, you already know my position, I took a heavy one on Mendoza and that was tough where it's like to get fifty K down, you know, I'm having to use a lot of different people, different amounts of money, getting limited, going to going in person, you having to go every day or every time they switch to counter people, which means I have to have a guy sit at the books. Like, hey, she just rotated out. If you want to come in, it's a new person at the counter. If you want to come better again, a lot of that, just to get maybe $500 or $1,000 down, Chad. Like it's a ton of work for such a limited amount. Where I joke at the Super Bowl, I could go in there that morning and bet if you wanted to a million dollars on a side, and they're happy to take it. So that's the tough part. It's so hard to get max imize your profits and your money on the draft, but I love it because it is so much hearsaying. Like Chad said, that those certain drafts where I'm getting info and the media is totally wrong, and I can capitalize on that. And I always say, I'll give it on the show. As long as I'm getting my money in and getting the right number, I'm happy to give it out to people. But that's honestly getting tougher as we get we keep moving along here. Like teams are getting tighter. That old wave, they are kind of leaving the league now. And this you new younger wave, they are very much tighter. Don't leak as much stuff. And you know, I'm I told you Chad, my biggest fear is always getting the the head fake, right? Someone giving me bad info costing me a lot of money. So um the draft, I I can tell you I try to be more patient and you know, like Derek here. I I want to hear from smart people that are betting it a lot. Like I want to hear people what they're taking a position on because if I like something and he says he likes it too, maybe I'll hit it again. Like that's what I'm looking for. I want to hear other people's thoughts. And if he says something and I disagree with it, I'm not gonna just shun his opinion. I'm gonna relook at my position and be like, oh, I' mismreading this totally. I remember, I think it was a freedman we had last year. He was saying how the quarterbacks, you know, were gonna drop in the draft, and you know, we could get Dart in the first round. He wasn't gonna be a second rounder. Sure enough, you went what a 20 chat. So that's the info you're looking for. You want to hear people who have a good read on it. The media has a wrong read of it, and you can get huge value. So yeah, it's it's tight lines, people. Like if you want to get bets down, as soon as we talk about it, and you hear it here , you kind of want to bet it. You don't want to wait because stuff can move huge, huge movement, like we've seen sometimes 10 rounds or 10 picks, I should say, uh, in live movement. So it's it's really fun. It's a fluctuating market. That's why I love Bedding it. Well, look, you just said something really interesting, which is the way inform ation is being communicated is changing. Derek, I wonder from your point of view, even in the past few years that you've been betting the draft and enjoying betting the draft, are you seeing draft strategy change and how teams are approaching the draft? And and if so, what does that mean for betters ? I think you've seen how, and some of this goes into just the free market. I mean, let's go to the the biggest piece of news of relevancy over the last few weeks, the massive uh contract that JSN has gotten and what the wide receiver market. I think that has been huge. You look over the last like since uh so 2016 to 2019, no more than four wide receivers were selected in any one of those years. And in two of those years, only two wide receivers went in the first round. And the reason I'm I'm hyper focusing on the first round is because if people are trying to get action on the NFL draft, that's really where you're you're talking about it is the first round. You don't get a lot of other action out there where it's like you can bet guys in the second and the third or where they go and pick positions and stuff. We are hyper focused on the first round. And what teams are doing, and some of this is the market economics of paying these players ,$40, $50 million dollar contracts. So wide receivers since 2020, those last six years, no fewer than four have been taken in every first round of the draft. And in five of the or excuse me, four of those years, at least five guys have gone. But two years with they had six guys and one year, seven wide receivers drafted. And so looking at that, yeah, the NFL is telling us, okay, uh, we want to get in early and we want to get these guys on rookie contracts and want to be like because a the other part about all this is a lot of these talented players aren't hitting the free agency market where teams are locking up some of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And I mean, I we're dropping bets here live and stuff. I mean, right now you can get over five and a half wide receivers at plus one eighty-five plus money at some books. Yeah, in this uh economy of wide receivers, I'm taking that. And the other thing I'll throw in here is you're seeing more teams draft offensive tackles specifically . Like we can go in a lot of the markets are just offensive linemen in general, but when you want to dial down just to the offensive tackles and then zoom out larger to the offensive line market, there's money to be made because over the last two years, eight tackles, not even counting like centers, guys switching to guard and stuff, guys that were projected as tackles. Over the last two years, eight of them have been taken and back-to-back years. And now you can get the line. Uh last time I looked was at seven, seven and a half. Uh yeah, both of those give me the overs because history is showing in a lot of these markets, and again, going back to the economics of the NFL, Tower Linderbaum, like other interior offensive linemen, when they look at the franchise tags, are getting bucketed into getting paid like tackles, and some guys at the top of their position are getting paid like tackles. It's changing the economics and what teams are focusing on in the draft. All right. Those are two great points. Let's do a quick uh message from Hard Rock because I got an important question for you, Derek, coming out of that. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet Florida's Sportsbook, the biggest weekend in college basketball, is almost here. The semifinals are set. International champion is just days away from cutting down the net. Now's the time to step your game up with daily dance and boosts on hard rock bet . You'll get a live profit boost and a parla profit boost for the games. More ways to shoot your shot, more ways to cash in with boosted odds when the stakes are at their highest. Plus, Hard Rock Bet is handing out $25 bonus bets if a team you bet to win or cover hits a buzzer beater because when the lights are brightest, every shot matters even more. If you haven't joined Hard Rock Bet yet, now's the time to check in the game. New signups can double their winnings on their first 10 bets, max $50 . That means if you would have won $100 bucks on your first bet , now it's 200. So don't sit on the bench, download the hard rock bet app today and get the party started. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital L L C and all other states must be 21 or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling,? In Florida call 1833 Playwise. In Indiana, if you or some you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-8009 with it. In Ohio, call 1-800-MY Reset Gambling Problem. Call 1 800 GAMBLER in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, or Virginia. Everybody knows Shaq, but off camera, he's just a regular guy. People never believe me when I say I'm just like them. I take out the trash, do dishes, and I struggle with moderate obstructive sleep apnea or OSA, and a lot of adults with obesity also struggle with moderate to severe OSA. You know those scary breathing interruptions during sleep? The loud snoring, choking, and daytime fatigue. I knew I had to talk to my doctor. Don't sleep on the symptoms. Learn more at Don't SleepOnOSA.com. This information is provided by Lily, a medicine company. Welcome to a place where discovery means more, where connection begins in blooming gardens and grows into something deeper within you, where brilliant details inside storied hallways turn curiosity into inspiration , where dinners shared at sunset become memories that linger long after you leave. Welcome to Biltmore, where every experience is built for more hi, I'm Bob Pittman, Chairman and CEO of iHeartMedia, and I'm kicking off a brand new season of my podcast, Math and Magic: Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing. Math and Magic takes you behind the scenes of the biggest businesses and industries. I'm talking to leaders from the entertainment industry to finance and everywhere in between. This season on Math and Magic, I'm talking to CEO of Liquid Death Mike Cesario, financi er and public health advocate Mike Milken, take to interactive CEO Strauss Selnick. If you're unable to take meaningful creative risk and therefore run the risk of making horrible creative mistakes, then you can't play in this business. Sesame Street CEO Sherry Weston and our own chief business officer, Lisa Coffey. Making consumers see the value of the human voice and to have that guaranteed human promise be Listen to Math and Magic, stories from the Frontiers of Marketing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Well-intentioned, ferocious, and wealthy mother looks like in the black community. This women's history month, the podcast Keep It Paz Sweetie, celebrates the power of women choosing healing, purpose, and faith, even when life gets messy. Love is not a destination and you have to work on it every day. Keep it positive, sweetie creates space for honest conversations on self-worth, love, growth, and navigating life with grace and grid, led by women who uplift, inspire, and tell the truth out loud. I have several conversations with God and I know why it took 20 years. To hear this and more, listen to Keep It Positive Sweetie on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast All right, so you just dropped two great facts about bets you want to make over five and a half receivers, over on offensive tackles specifically , and you're doing it based on what past history and how some of these players are now getting paid . How much do you lean into when you're doing your research on those kind of metrics and that kind of information versus what you're hearing in the marketplace and studying and sort of trying to glean from rumors and innuendo. I I think you're trying to p paint the most complete picture you can with all of that. And and a lot of this going back to a previous point we you know we're discussing is right now I'm not gonna say we're in lying season, but we're in the board time where we're seeing a lot of um, I'm not gonna say pundits, but media, the media consortium pushing up certain players, a lot of this intel is coming from agents and what have you and stuff. So it's it's a two-prong approach. It's looking at market trends of what the NFL is showing us because the the the media and the NFL and everything, they could talk their talk and and now have the head coaching meeting and all that kind of stuff and things that will kind of leak out through that. Teams tell you what the real of it is with their moves, whether that's free agency or the NFL draft. So I think it's trying to paint a complete picture, but this also goes back to what are you what are you hear ing? Is that from a trusted source or somebody that you know in the business and the league and what have you, versus what is getting sprayed out there, you know, uh via the media and trying to make the most sense of it? So for me, it'sing truck is talk to people that I trust around the league, as well as looking at you know the team needs and honestly like the last few years of the draft. So it's it's I mean I know I kind of talking out both sides of my mouth, but it's really just trying to lean on the totality of the of the overall picture. How do you guys know? And Simon, you and I have talked about this, and you just mentioned it . We all get reached out to by people in professional sports, and we all have relationships. And in situations like this, specifically around the draft, how do you know when someone's giving you a head fake and trying to use the relationship to get you, Simon or you, Derek, to talk about it on your shows? Or how do you know that they're giving you real intel that is going to be actionable? Simon, you go first. Like you said, it's tough in the early relationship where you know this is my twelfth or thirteenth season and it takes time, especially where, you know, I didn't really know that many people in the NFL honestly until we did this show. And then yeah, people come out of the woodworks and I did get burned. Sometimes you get burned though, and it's people just like you said, they're fishing for information themselves, but at the time they're giving you good information, and a minute later, that's gonna change for them. I am number 100 are the people you need to reach out to now and tell them the information's change. And sometimes I don't get to reach out to. So as time's going along and say I became friends with scouts or different people within agents on different teams, as they move up, that's the best part to me because you can start trimming the fat. You don't need to talk to so many different people. If you get the guy who's three out from the GM on a certain team, I no longer need to talk to anyone else from that team. I have that guy now. I don't need three, four people to message constantly. And um, they're using me because I might save them five phone calls, right? If they can get information for me on different teams and hearing what I'm hearing, uh, you know, that helps a lot. But it's also like we said, it's a game. Like this whole thing with Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback, it's really fun for me because I knew this was coming. And as soon as I gave him a second-round grade, the second round grade of quarterback now is an early first round pick. Like that's just the way the NFL has moved . Like Jalen Hurts going to the second round. If he came out now, he probably would go the end of the first. Like that's just how it is. These quarterbacks have just been bumped down. So to me, he's got this frail build. He's one hit away from being out. And that's why it's like a guy like Purdy, we all really like that. Was the knock on Purdy coming out, right? He's got a small build. Purdy's body is not really held up. He's been banged up a lot since he's coming to the league. That's the same fear with this kid, right? Like he's got a ton of tools. But then you have someone like Dan Relasque that makes a ridiculous statement that no one that's really breaking down anything agrees with. That's why people freaked out on him because it's like, Are you doing this for the clicks? Are you involved with the agents? Someone like me, I try to always keep it 100% clean. Where it's like, I don't everyone have people thinking that way with me. It's like I don't want people to think I'm biased. I mean, I'll never forget the year we were killing um the draft of you know how how are the jets gonna move up and take Zach Wilson, the number two pick. And we were getting killed for it. People coming out of the woodwork about that. And it's like that's the hardest part of this. It's like I don't want to be killing this kid either. But me and you were on the same page of like everything about this kid has a bus written about him. That's the same way I feel about this kid Ty Simpson. It's like he's got ton of upside chat, and I'll talk to some GMs that are like, dude, I don't even have this kid on my board. Like that kid's body, that ain't making it to week 10, let alone holding up for 10 years NFL. So there's some GMs that just don't even have that kid on their board. There's other GMs that, yeah, like Dan Orlovsky, they might have him as a first round pick. I have not heard from a single person, a single person in the league chat that has him above Mendoza. So that's why it's like, yeah, I like see, I see Derek shaking that too. It's I feel like everyone in the know is just like, what a stupid statement. That's why, you know, he's getting killed in the media, because I I think me and Derek in the same lockstep, it's like this kid is not better than Mendoza. Uh Derek, before before you get into that, because I there were two answers there. And the question was about how are you sort of deciphering the signals from the noise when you're talking to a lot of people around the league and trying to use that information thoughtfully? Answer that second question. Answer that question second. Give me your Ty Simpson take since that is the conversation that everyone is starting to have right now. Well Ty Simpson is not a first round quarterback, has never been a first round quarterback for me. Um he,'s not even my QB2 of this class. Uh there's a litany of other guys um that we could talk about that I have ranked over Ty Simpson. I think you could point to a lot. I think the thing that's helping him is that he comes from an SEC school. Some of this is helmet scouting. So it's literally the newer, different version of Kenny Pickett or Trubisky or whoever you want to talk about of previous years, where small starting experience, he goes to a big program. If Ty Simpson was coming out of say Georgia Tech or Iowa or what have you, he wouldn't be getting all this buzz. So um I I think it's a big mess and to the point, it's like I saw that stuff hit the news lines and I was like, okay, you can throw that out there, so it's noteworthy enough because he's basically everybody's consensus QB2. So you don't sound totally like you're talking out your butt, but then the way that you're saying it with your chest, you can grab all the clicks and the clips and what have you. So you know we could have a long conversation about all this EAA stuff and if that's real or not. Probably some substance. And to the second point , it it's kind of a do I trust you and how far does that trust go if we don't have a previous relationship over years and years of good intel and things that I can actually put my finger on. And uh so some of this is I take it with a grain of salt and if I'm able to, I cross-check it against other people that I know uh around the league and try to, you know, do the tin can approach like, oh, have you heard this too? Okay, so it's not just, okay, cool, cool. So it's a lot of like casting a wide net. If you're getting a lot of different sources that I trust to corroborate a lot of the same things, then I'll tr ust it. It versus am I going out on a limb for somebody that reaches out to me or I have a conversation and something comes up. There's definitely a trust factor and the and a lot of that trust is over proof is in the pudding. So I trust things more from depending on the sources that I get it from and if I can cross-check it at times. You know what's interesting about this? There's two things. Number one , this is how guys end up going higher. I remember this from when I used to cover the combine and you'd start talking to agents or coaches and they're walking around the lobby or you're seeing them at St. Omo's or having a drink or whatever. And everyone's sort of having the same whisper campaign, you know, it's like it's like Whisper Wednesday at the Kentucky Derby, where everyone starts talking about the same horse that warmed up well, it's the same athlete that performed well, and everyone is getting excited about it and that rumor spins into fact. Number one. Go ahead. Well, say the key to all of it too, what you're saying is all it takes is one team, right? Yeah. But that's the hard part with like Stor Sanders I got I did get fed bad info last year on him where I had heard there was a team that really was like liked him liked him was going to take him the first round it was all purely leveraged for them to try to get some to trade up for their pick. And you know, that's the hardest part of this where it's like I I invested in that that info, which was sound info, but it was like, oh, they were just playing another game on top of that game. So that's the scary part, Chad. Well that's what that's why the the second part of this is if you are if you are not someone who has connections to the NFL and the ability to speak to people on a regular basis and maybe suss out fact from fiction and you're just a regular Joe betting this you're at such a severe disadvantage because anything you're getting is so third hand and you're pulling it from the sky and there's no way to know if it's real or not. Whereas it goes back to what Derek was talking about earlier, looking at the past history and trying to forecast, all right, what positions are going to be the most valuable? How can someone leverage that future state now by drafting someone really well and not have to pay them for five years, that to me ends up being a much better way to try to make decisions about betting on the draft than Derek leaning into anything you might get from , you know, quote unquote sources in the NFL. But they're good there giving him props. He's kind of telling you the secret sauce, right? Is if you can see the way the peak is going, yeah. Follow that. Like if he gave us the answer. Yeah, exactly. And it's like if you think the league is going to keep drafting more running backs and this is a good running back class, you bet the over one and a half running backs in the first round. I think we talked about last year. That went from minus 120 to minus four hundred by draft night. So that's what I'm talking about. These lines will swing super quick because it's just not just me and Derek have this info now. Everybody that listens to our shows now have it. And they've all bet it. I know those lines are racing. So that's the coolest part too, is you see instant movement of this show. Like I remember we used to have Sean on Kerner, he'd give out his props and I would watch in live time on my screen all the different websites moving their props with his bet. And it's like that's the same thing happens in this draft. If he came on here, Derek right now and said something crazy outlandish, like I don't know, just something insane. That he's like, Okay, this third quarterback, I just got word, this guy's gonna be a third-round pick now. You would see the over two and a half quarterbacks before midnight tonight, Chad, move huge. Even if it's just 50 people from our show betting it, that's how sensitive the books are. They just move off air. So that's what I keep telling people to be careful of. Do not chase the steam. You got to be ahead of it. And if you miss the wave, don't chase it later because you're going to get burned that way. And that's how you lose big on these type of units. So uh that would definitely be my biggest advice. Don't don't just chase the steam. You if you're not ahead of it, you missed it honestly. Don't don't don't waste it. There's so many different ways to bet the draft. Derek gave us the best piece of advice that we've had about the draft since the Mac Jones heyday. I wanted to go back to one, I think, very sage point that you made, Chad. The Intel cycle for all of this, it starts at the freaking combine, man. Some of the best stuff that I've gotten over the years has been from the rumblings and talking to people at the NFL Combine, where it's like, this guy is the workout concerns. Is there this? Is there this? And all the rumors. So if you're able to to Simon's point to get into markets early with some of this intel and and from sources that you trust, the information cycle starts then. It's not the week or two before the draft or trying to follow guys and their mock drafts and who have you like of of the NFL consortium and it's like, oh well that that guy's at the end of the first round. He must be going for round one. And you don't know if if the agents or what have you or like, hey, can you put this guy in the back end of your first round? I mean, it makes a lot of sense. You're not going to get blasted for it, I swear. You know, so I think the the information cycle starts even at that point of the combine where we're trying to put all the puzzle pieces together even that early. Derek , I have this vision of you as a crazy big football fan in Baton Rouge on an overnight shift at St. Jude's and in between taking care of precious young human beings , you're knee-deep in three ring binders that you created yourself about football like just paint a picture for me of what that was how like how you managed being a caregiver and a human saint with being a you know crazy football fan. I can definitely tell you uh there were a lot of bets made from very infrequent uh bathroom breaks as a nurse. Uh and number two, I did work a lot of night shifts. I worked night shifts for about six years and there were a lot of um bets made during my lunch break uh as short as that was so you had to be very efficient you had to get all of everything down whether it was uh betting and DFS and all that kind of stuff. I'm at 2 a.m. and I'll even hearken this back to COVID times. I'm not ashamed to say, and I feel like this is a safe space, boys. It is. Um, many, many different times uh betting on Korean baseball at two and three A. M. Um, I have done it. Uh I know we're not talking about Korean baseball leagues, but that has been um a focus of mine uh very much uh early at or early in the morning or late at night, however you want to approach it. I just love that someone who genuinely went into a field that is so selfl ess was still working on his bets in his downtime. Gotta grind that EV, man. You gotta grind a grind that EV. All right. Speaking of EV, pretty slim pickings right now. We've talked about how they've changed NFL draft betting and and books don't lean into it as much 'cause they start to get burned a little bit. Of what you're seeing out there right now. Um, you've mentioned a couple of things, Derek. What else are you seeing? And for both of you, when do you expect the markets to open up a little bit more? Do you want to kick this off, Samuel? You may take this? Yeah, far away. All right. Um, for me, I mean being very calculated, kind of like we talked about. The early lines that we're getting, I think one of the most interesting markets out there right now, uh, and I usually don't go too heavy about these, um, in the sense of certain players to go to certain picks in the draft because again, the volatility and things can go sideways very quickly. And really if I'm making some of these like selections at certain pick numbers, it has to make a lot of sense whether that's based off of information or again we're seeing trends i i 'm not making these bets at like especially like guys that are like minus one ten even plus one hundred plus two hundred because if again with the volatility, we want to lean into the leverage points. And if the NFL does things that maybe because this happens every single year, one of the best spots right now is pick number two. I mean, you on some books, you're getting plus one thousand, plus fourteen hundred on Ruben Bain. Yeah, I'm witting my whistle on some of that. Because you look at, okay, everybody is mocking an edge to the Jets at two. It's Arville Reese. It's Arville Reese. He's the steamed up player. Look back to yester year and people talk about the arm length of Ruben Bain and we can have a very long conversation about what's real and what's fiction, considering over the last two years the NFL has changed how they measure arms and the pro days and the senior bowl and all the arm length stuff isn't lining up from like all these different sources. So that doesn't matter to me. Like when we go back to the Jets, Aaron Glenn was part of the Detroit Lions when they selected another highly touted edge rusher from a big program with seven percentile arms in Aiden Hutchinson. And if you want to talk about just stacking up production, if I'm gonna get plus one thousand plus fourteen hundred in some spots on Ruben Bain to go second overall. Um, yes, please. Considering the top three defenders above him, I mean two or three guys are like at plus two hundred, plus one hundred. Arville Reese is at minus two thirty in some spots. I'm not no. And you can team that if you wanted to uh again go with two sides of this coin Arville Reese over two and a half. So basically the books are saying he's going at two. You can get that at plus money at some spots. And not to just spray the board here, but um