Mexico's World Cup hosting challenges

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First up though if you supported or voted for Donald Trump because of his promise not to get America involved in new foreign entanglements, boy are you disappointed. In January, American Special Forces snatched President Nicolas Maduro from his hideout in Venezuela. That brought Cuba's biggest oil supplier under American control . Mr. Trump thought that would at last bring Cuba to heel. Months later the only thing that's changed is the increased misery for everyday Cubans. No capitulation of the regime, no popular uprising, no deal to end that misery. So now come the threats of military action . On Tuesday, Cuba's foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla did not hold back at the UN's Security Council. He said America's actions amounted to war crimes. He said military aggression would result in a bloodbath. He said that at a moment that we hope will never happen, the people of Cuba will fight to the last consequence. But things simply cannot continue as they are now. Donald Trump is right to want to change Cuba . Sarah Burke is our Bureau Chief from Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. The communist rulers of the island are really vile. They have impoverished their people and locked up anyone who disagrees with them. But so far, Trump's methods for ensuring change have achieved very limited success . And by way of recap, we've certainly talked a lot on the show about how miserable the conditions in Cuba have become over Every time I've gone to Cuba it just gets worse. This is a country that for sixty seven years has suffered from imprisonment of any political opponents, squashing of free speech, and just a total degradation of the economy that has immiserated the people. Ordinary Cubans who work and have what should be decent jobs as teachers or government workers really can't even afford basic food, eggs, beans, rice. They have no electricity. It's getting hotter and hotter. So in that sense, Jason, since I was last there earlier this year, it has got worse. And the elites, meanwhile, are pretty insulated from this. They drive around in their nice cars and go to nice restaurants . And so the inequality is also growing. And you said Mr. Trump's methods for trying to change any all of this have not worked so far. What's been on the menu up until now? The menu has mainly been sticks rather than car rots. So from January he choked off Cuba's oil supply, starting with cutting off Venezuelas once he'd done away with Nicolas Maduro , and then also forcing other countries to stop sending oil as well. And that's mainly the stick they've used, as well as more recently threatening some form of military action. The Cubans are negotiating and talking to the Americans, and we have seen a few political prisoners released, and some offerings in terms of economic opening and reform s, such as letting Cubans abroad invest . But these are pretty small gains, and definitely far less than Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is Cuban American himself want to see, and indeed less than most Cubans would want to see. There's no sign really yet that there's going to be any wholesale change of the type that would satisfy people, or indeed any change of the regime itself. Aaron Powell So do you think the spirit of what's happened so far is an attempt to foment popular protest? Definitely at the start it seemed to be that. It seemed to be: look, let's make the situation source of unbearable, which many Cubans say is just wholly cruel. They're the ones suffering from the oil embargo far, far more than the ruling class. And the idea was that maybe they would come out to the streets and they would overthrow the regime a bit like Donald Trump called for to happen in Iran as well. Now obviously that hasn't happened, and there are good reasons why it hasn't happened. The Cuban regime cracks down very hard on people who come out to the streets or show dissent. And the other thing is most young people who are more prone to come out and protest have, left the islands. And so what you're seeing now is a look at different military options instead. What do those look like? So none of them are simple. When I've talked to people there are three broad options. You could do a wholesale invasion , which they're not going to do, I don't think. You could do limited strikes on key targets, which might scare the regime into concessions, at least that's the way the thinking goes, or provoke some split in the ruling class, you could easily imagine strikes on certain airfields on docks. The Americans there is no doubt could do this. Cuba's army is very degraded at this point. But no one thinks that is necessarily going to change anything either. The Cubans tend What about the kind of operation that the Trump administration carried out in Venezuela? So that's doubtless very tempting for the Trump administration in so far as they see Venezuela as a huge success for them. But Cuba is not Venezuela and everyone would do well to remember that. Raul Castro, who is presumably the person they would take out, he's the person they just indicted on may the twentieth, has no formal position of power, and so if you take him out, assuming you could and he's probably in hiding, it doesn't actually affect the power structure. Not to say he doesn't have power, he has veto power over everything that happens in the island. But either way, in theory, everything still would continue and it's unlikely that this would cause much to change. He's also ninety-four years old, in fact he'll be ninety-five on June the third, and it doesn't look as good. And many Cubans are indeed I wouldn't say fond of him, but they wouldn't react very well to him being taken off in handcuffs Maduro style in the way that Venezuelans reacted to that happening to their leader. It's not an obvious exit route either or success route for the Trump administration It's also a very different country that the Trump administration would be dealing with, right? In that Venezuela, broadly a far richer one. Yeah, I mean I should have mentioned too that there is no equivalent of Delci Rodriguez, who took power after Maduro was taken out. But yeah, it's a very different country. Oil is a big difference. Venezuela has oil, it has resources. It had a way of reconstructing the economy. Cuba doesn't really have resources in that way. So there's not necessarily clear how you could rebuild this complete economic devastation. And on top of that, Cubans don't have a political opposition in the way that's organized like Venezuela does. Not to say there are good local leaders or one couldn't be gathered together, but it's not as obvious or clean cut as in Venezuela. So you'd need an awful lot of private investment, and there Cuba does have a plus point. There are lots and lots of extremely well off Cuban Americans in the United States who could and would be willing to invest. But you're talking about a recovery that needs to be m much more profound and would take much longer, and a political transition that would be much harder than in Venezuela. Aaron Powell I guess one question is how much Cubans on the street support American interventions of any of the kinds you've described. I think that's changed over time, Jason. Cubans are very nationalistic and obviously don't like the idea of America coming and invading or occupying or doing anything in their country. But it's got to the point that people are so desperate that you hear all the time from Cubans, let's just get it over and done with. We don't care how. Things can't get worse. And so I think we've really got to the point where the suffering is so big that people want change anyway. And if that means the Americans, and for many people they think that's the only option that now really is on the table for them, then great, let that be the option. Aaron Powell And so do you think a military option is a good option for the Trump administration for Cuba, for Cubans? Aaron Powell For all the reasons we've just laid out, Jason, it doesn't seem like it's one that is going to work. And it seems one that the risks are very high. When I've been doing calls with people over the last few weeks and months, and we try and game this out, and you go down one route and you come to a dead end, and you go down another and you come to a dead end, and you go down to another and you come to the dead end. This is not an easy problem. This is a regime that has been in power for 67 years and does not want to let go of power. And the idea that you can beat it with a stick or you can offer it such an incentive, these rational economic ways of thinking about things don't necessarily fly. The best possible outcome would be a negotiated deal that leads to a huge economic opening and a gradual political transition. You would have to leave the regime in place, but you would have to do some of the things that have been made public. Oil would come in and the Cubans have to really open up the economy. They have to release political prisoners. They have to not crack down on people. The army's corrupt business empire needs to back away from some of its control. You could see that working. But whether it's a realistic option or it's going to happen is another question. Sarah, thanks very much for joining us. Thanks, Jason. I'll be honest, nothing tests my patience quite like sitting on hold, listening to the same four bars of music on repeat. Turns out all that time adds up. 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So whether an agent supports one user or the whole enterprise, Okta turns risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI . I've met all three leading and startly different presidential candidates for the elections coming up this Sunday in Colombia. Kenny Salmon is our Latin America correspondent. One of them, Abelado de la Espieya, is a hard right figure he dubs himself El Tigre. I went along to a rally of his on a recent trip and his supporters run around in tiger costumes. It's got the feeling of a spectacle, there's pumping music, there's sparks flying on stage. Ivan Cepeda, the hard left candidate, his rallies have a very different feel. His standard prop is instead the pages of his speech, which And then it's Paloma Valencia. She's really the establishment sort of center right candidate . She is more centrist, but she's still pretty tough on security. She says she's going to get Colombians their security back. And these three represent really just radically different visions for the future of Colombia. And right now it's still possible that any of the three could yet be the next Aaron Powell And before we talk about the three, tell me about Colombian voters, what they're thinking about what Colombia is like now. What's on the docket? Aaron Powell Well it's a bit of a split picture. I mean the security is bad and, voters are worried about it. Last year a presidential candidate was assassinated. Cocaine production, this is a country that produces two thirds of the world's cocaine, that production's at record highs. More civilians have been caught up in the violence then at any point in the last decade. So that's all pretty grim. And that's partly because the government's been pursuing something called total peace, an attempt to negotiate with all these rebel groups who are really just drug traffickers at this stage, at the same time. And that's basically failed. But the flip side is that voters are feeling quite a bit better about the economy. Consumption's up, Petra, the current left-wing president, has hiked the minimum wage by 17%. That's a big feel-good for a lot of people . I mean the government is overspending trying to kind of pump up the economy. It's a bit artificial if you like, that it bullying the central bank to lower rates. But of course, jam today is popular. And that certainly helps the left and their candidates appear. So tell me about him. Well he's in a good position, arguably a favorite or close to it, partly because of this pumping of the economy by the current government. But he's a very different figure to Gustavo Petra. Petra is a sort of impetuous character. Sopeda is severe, austere , serious, he likes Nero collar shirts and cardigans. I met him last year in his pretty unflashy apartment in Bogota, and he kind of almost academic or certainly carefully explained his very left wing views, and in particular his unflagging belief in this approach of total peace. He promises to carry on with that despite its failings. And economically, he wants a left wing slate, he wants land distribution, he wants much greater welfare spending, he even wants state procurement to favoured small players like community kitchens. And of course, some of this alarms business and markets. But he tries quite hard and quite clearly to assuage fears and the claims of right-wingers that he would somehow turn Colombia into Venezuela, which next door of course collapsed into a sort of socialist dictatorship. The right, of course, does not believe him when he says that, or at least much of it doesn't. Well, tell me about then El Tigre, the candidate from the farthest right. Well he's really surging in the polls right now. And you can see why to some extent you attend his rallies and he's just a hyperactive performer. He was dressed in a bulletproof vest, dancing around behind bulletproof glass, but in a kind of excited way, pumping up the crowd. I met him in person as well. He was more soft spoken, but he never misses a chance to flash a pearly grin with his spectacularly perfect teeth. He says to me, I'm not a popul ist, I'm popular. It's different. But many do compare him, and his own beard resembles the populist president of El Salvador, Naird Buk ele, just like Bukele del Espiega promises to build 10 privately run mega prisons in the jungle. He said to me, right now, Colombia doesn't But his past has been criticized. I asked him about, for example, the fact he represented as legal counsel Alex Saab. Alex Saab was a close ally of Nicolas Maduro that recently ousted president of Venezuela, and Saab has been extradited the USA on charges of money laundering . Well Esprella says this was just a product of my work as a defense lawyer, he says I did absolutely nothing wrong, and he offers up a slightly gratuitous, a bit sexual analogy to ram home the point. He points out my wedding ring and says, Do I love my wife? He's inquired about my marital fidelity yet, and then followed up by saying, But when I was single, did I used to date a lot of women? And the role of a married one. So at the very least he's quite a character. And lastly, tell me about Paloma Valencia, the establishment candidate. Well that's right. In some ways she is a total insider. She's the granddaughter of a former Colombian president. She's the political protege of Alvaro Ribe, a very influential, more recent former president. And she's got a team of experienced politicians around more. She is, frankly, in many ways more sensible than the other two candidates. She's tough on security, but she cares about the informal economy. She wantsation educ to be a priority. And she'd be the first female president for Colombia. But she didn't seem that optimistic when I met her. She sort of complained about having to run against these populists who promise more or less anything. She by contrast says she's trying to sell decency and realism in the road of long work, but that looks like a pretty tough sell next to have your cake and eat it. And is it? I mean it sounds that way from here too. Well she is trailing in the polls at the moment. One thought is that she is from a more traditional party, as you'd expect, and they might be better at getting out the vote when it comes to the crunch. But I don't think it's looking very good for her right now. So there's a real chance that the runoff which is likely will be between Abalado de la Espriea, this populist hard right figure, and Ivan Sepeda, a very strongly left wing figure, and that really is Mexico has a long history with the World Cup. John Fazman is our senior culture correspondent and is counting down to this summer's FIFA World Cup by introducing us to ten of the teams taking part. The country first played in the inaugural World Cup in 1930. This year marks their 18th appearance and their third time as hosts. And at this restaurant in Mexico City, people are feeling pretty optimistic. He said it's a source of pride because Mexico is the first country to have three World Cups. And she said, Well, I'm happy and economically speaking, it could be a good boost. We're gonna have a lot of visitors, and in these difficult times As for the squad, they'll be looking for the home advantage. But their recent record has been shaky. At the 2024 Copa America, they didn't even make it out of the group stage. And at international matches this autumn ahead of the World Cup, they suffered a series of poor results against South American teams. The home crowd even booed them off the pitch after a scoreless draw with Uruguay. They'll face South Africa, South Korea, and Chechia, but the biggest challenge for the team may be psychological. They have experience under coach Javier Aguirre and stars like striker Raul Jimenez, who plays for Fulham in the Premier League. And like all sides with great expectations and demanding fans, they're no stranger to criticism and pressure, but they need to channel that into positive results rather than anxiety. Coach said , because the fans are demanding and expect us to win and play well, and that's why I want the players to not shy away, to not ask to be substituted just because they've got a cramp. But a lot of the drama for Mexico around this World Cup is off the pitch. In 2018, when Canada, Mexico, and the United States won their bid to host the World Cup jointly, their slogan was United as One. But heading into the tournament, North America's unity is under strain. The discord can be heard most clearly in its leaders' language. President Donald Trump has threatened direct