Final Draft Picks and Wrap Up

No one goes to Hank's for his spreadsheets. They go for a darn good pizza. Lately though, the shop's been quiet. so Hank decides to bring back the one dollar slice. He asks Copilot in Microsoft Excel to look at his sales and costs and help him see if he can afford it. Copopilot shows Hank where the money's going and which little extras make the dollar slice work Now Aanks has a line out the door. Tank makes the pizza, Copilot handles the spreadsheets. Learn more at m three sixty five copilot dot com slash work. This the Media Kime show featuring Lenn Only NFO podcast, where of the hosts pronounce it pronounces it, pardon me. Tyler J. No, dang it Treredon No, it doesn't work. I was trying to do it ar piler Mostly because I don't even think Suff can rhyme with RF. I think I think we're reaching a little too far to get to that one. Yeah The shuck boys are shaking their heads right now I still haven't gotten credit for coming up the Sock boys. Anim I talk about him, I drop it and I reference you. I think it's one of the best fans of player groups we've seen in a while.yer Does't work. All right, well, we'll keep working on that. Tyie Sock is going to come up today. We'll see how much of a shuck boy I really am because It's here the annual quarterback draft draft pod Perhaps the episode that inspires the most wrath, the most controversial does it? I't know this God. I don't know if Ben knew that when he I gave him. I said, whichich one do you want to do? And he said, I'd love to do quarterback draft. Well Ben.ichell. Are you ready to get yelled at? Jayen Hurtzs nation is going to come for you. The Suck boys are going to be in your mentions the Purty prettyty boys No, the dirt prettyty workers, pretty birds? Anyways. Yeah, P prettytyirds, ye People are very mad about this episode. We do it every year. We draft the entire well, there's obviously some quarterback battles and whatnot and we can hash those out as we go. But we are drafting all thirty two teams quarterbacks. Some of them have to decide who that quarterback is you decide it with your pick, essentially And to remind folks how we do this, that's been soak, of course U we are drafting with and I've been stayed with this the whole time, a three year timeline Contracts don't matter and we're trying to remove the player from the context. So you are not drafting aforementioned Brock Pd pretty necessarily because he gets to continue playing in the San Francisco Roy Niners offense. you are drafting him because you like Brock Pury and his skill set. Does all of that make sense? Do you have any questions, complaints? Get the outou now. Yes, but the problem is like I've definitely found myself breaking ties by being like, okay, well his system is better than the other guys. And so he'll look better over the next three years and I'll look more okay at my team back in in the past So I definitely like it was very hard to say you know, fully context out Three years is always interesting as well because A couple of these quarterbacks are probably not going to be playing in two years. And then of course, it's always hard with the young guys, the rookies, right to a total blank slate. The system tends to punish rookie quarterbacks Um, And that's not really a statement about them necessarily. You can make you can be bold and say I think Mendoza is going to be X in the league, but you know, obviously, if you haven't seen him play, they're going to get punished and So don't get mad about it Cross vaccination or whatever. I like as I' have Mendoza, where I have Mendoza. But as a thought exercise, like, o, where would I put arch if I could do arch in this draft? I would have arrched Brit high you're already trying to infuriate people. Okay So I am going give myself the first pick I asked myself, is this the year Finally, I think every single year I've done this it has been the same quarterback att number one And if you consider context, there's a very strong case for not putting him at number one because of the context that he's entering into this season because he is coming off of an injury. This is a three year timeline. And then I'm sticking with Pattyy Mahobes at number one Part of the reason why is okay, so I thought to myself Okay Who would really unseat him And as much as I am, you know, a huge fan of Ol Mar Jackson and Josh Allen. the big four is always, you know, the big four, big five, whatever of the best years themselves, right? Like I think If we did this last year and Mahomes a season was last season, but then Alan Lamar season was That sounds confusing, but you understand what I'm saying. If we were coming off of last year's Allen and LMar seasons instead of the ones we just had I actually I would have put one of them If not both, above But when I kind of took a step back and looked at all three of these quarterback seasons It felt to me like they didn't make enough of a case last year to unseat The king The other thing I'll notice is that a note. is that despite the fact that Mahomes was perfect and also playing in a pretty awful offense. and we can talk about that He was still top ten and most veterans are just kind of crazy, right? Like he was six in QBR, ninth in EPA, eighth in success rate. He was first in QBR when pressured. hisis receiving group was thirtieth in catch rate over expectation, twenty ninth in drop rate We all know how bad the Chiefs offense was So you you're not picking here, but would you have taken Mahoness number one Absolutely. Yeahah. And the line that I had was But without question, The chief's offense has gotten worse than we ever imagined a chief's offense would with Patrick Holmes at the helm. There's no doubt when Hommes was at his peak, and if you had you know, given every single NFL analyst truth serum and say describe the absolute stinkiest a chief's offense can be with this guy, none of us would have gotten this low. So the bottom has fallen out further than we thought was possible is also the best cour of recckon league, rightight? So it is We never thought we'd get this close. We never thought we'd be this closose to a conversation. But still, like you said, like Allen from twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five, I thought played worse. I know that he had, you know, a very nice statistical run but I thought he played worse. Lamar Jackson from twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five P wororse had the injury. And so nobody really stepped up in a way where you feel emphatic about replacing the homes. And I also think that when you go and you context it out. to be asked to play in the offense he's playing in that is so PO oriented and it's very screen and run solution oriented and wants to live behind line of scrimmage should be put in the spot where, oh, we need to throw the ball more deep. We need to force teams to play more too high, but tyype one Th is your best downfield option. I still think that you can so easily forgive so much of what has gone wrong in the Chief's offense D tractors and those who heard all the Mahomess hype and the Mahomes glazing for years now like, you know, respond and say, oh my gosh, like you guys told he was this and the other thing. Now look at this. Look at these bad plays. It's absolutely true. It's worse than we thought it would ever get. He's still the best quarterback in the league. He had such a he had such an emphatic lead on the other guys that he's still in the poull position. I think the Alan the Mark conversation, which I assume we're gonna to have next U just a really big part of this as you as you said, like this is just they're just coming off of doubt. I mean, it is funny because I think we feel like they were, you know, like on his face. Josh Sam had a better season last year than Patrick Holes. When you take the numbers like They're not that much better and Um You know, Alan also like that when you Al guess is playing a te that can run the football Right And So when he throws it both those two teams are have very good rushing attacks Pedroom homes did not Um likeike I said, if we had done this, Be if Mahomes, I'm not going to whatever, do that complicated time travel scenario again, it's like, It's like or like like looper or something where I'm like if you take one quarterback and you travel you ever get to say a movie I' se. I was gonna be, yes, I willll respond to this reference then you went to one h haveouse You've never seen interstellar or Looper? No, I saw interstellar. so I thought But then you chang sawper and you left me outang hanging out out to dry Uh, okay Everybody's probably bad already. But I again Who's your guy? That's why I just keep saying. like you can absolutely say Mohomas is not blameless for last year. I mean, there were he struggled in certain areas. I think throwing the ball deep. someome of those misses were his fault for sure. My biggest point though here is obviously track record, threeree your view, but also who's your guy. I don't think either of these guys made a case to jump him last season But then you're going to have to choose between them unless you've got some wild card at too, and you're going to completely mess with me Y your number two quarterback in the quarteracks draft No, I took Alan here over Lamar and like, you know, if I woke up on the other side of the bed this morning it would have been Lamar and I would have been able to easily defend it. I think that the simplest solution for splitting the hair is I've got one guy who's coming off of an injured season where Lamar was clearly impacted by the lower leg injuries. We've had multiple years now with Lar lower leg injuries, whereereas Alan is an Ironman. And so how could I absolutely blow this pick on a three year timeline. It's by taking the Mar over Alen and then it turns out he's got, you know hamstring issues the rest of the way down whereas Allan doesn't. So I take Aen I feel like that runs a little bit safer Allen's offense and Allen's passing game. I do think that you know, the The improvement in accuracy and the improvement in decision making and ableility to read stuff out and get rid of the ball quickly, astonishing relative to what we thought he would be coming out of Wyoming. It also is the case that like he throws the ball deep less than Lamar and Mahomes do at this point. His off target rate when he throws the ball deep, is a little bit noticeable last season relative to some of the top guys. Now his overall off target rate led a league because he operates so well behind line of scrimmage. youin the first ten yards of the line of scrimmage. they have that Excellent quick passing game where he's gotten so much better just like mechanically and consistently and that plus the running game plus the scrambling ability makes them like a really, really dynamic offense for the fifty three and third yards of the field. I think you can look at the way the offense is devolved, the receiver room is deolved and say, well, the reason we can't push the ball down the field is because we were doing it with, you know, Tyroll Shavers and Ke on Cleman and Josh Palmer and just kind of not having that downfield body now DJoore comes into the building in the hopees they'll be able to stretch things out a little bit more. But when you're splitting the Allen Jackson hair, I think you split it on the basis of durability and injury proneness more than you do anything else If you want to talk about Alen in a new offense, you know, getting a new opportunity to kind of rediscover what it means to push the ball down the field with his arm strength. There is a reason to like expect a bounce back. you could talk about something very similar with Mamar in terms of changing that offense as well. And so there's there's reason to kind of hang your hat on both returning back to twenty twenty four form off of a little bit of a transitional twenty twenty five Durability is why I also had Allen too. I went back and forth, you know, I think Allan had a more like a cleaner season a little bit because Lamar was pretty we'll get to him in a second, a little bit all over the place last year. but Allen was more efficient. notot like incredibly so though. Like I thought his success rate would be much higher. It was tenth to Lamar's thirteenth last season, interestingly enough. but You hit on it. likeike he played small ball, right? twenty fifth in average depth a target, but he was at his best a first down machine. And I think I do think a lot of the lack of explicivity had to do with the past catchers and the nature of the bills offense. Also like Lamar took a lot of sx more seackx last year, but Lamar took, we'll get to that again, way more sex But Alan is twenty fourth in pressure to Sacarate too. So you know, I think by both of their standards, they were down seasons, I think His was slightly less. and I also think the health factor works in his favor when you think about the three year timeline. He was also the other thing that was a decisive thing was for me was he was just better on third down and got to have it moments than Lamar more consistent in that regard But they're both very much the engines of their respective offensces, right in a way like we'll get to some other the quarterbacks today where it's not the case And The truth is like if if I was Building a team I would go with Alan because of the durability factor like that you know, building team from scratch To that sack point because this is I think when we were talking about Allen's game last year and it was okay, what's the number one difference between like MVP Allen and this Allen we're seeing? Because if you look at like yards per attempt, like stuff like, a lot of it was very similar Third down Sac rate last three years for Josh Allen, twenty twenty three, five percent. twenty twenty four, four percent. twenty twenty five, fourteen percent. went through the roof, right? He really got into a mental headspace last season. where just the bullets have been bouncing off of his chest in twenty twenty four. and he said, I can do anything I want on these laydowns. likeike I will just I will shed off defensive tackles and I will make throws up against the sideline. and regression came back to buy him in a huge hu hge way. He put a lot of punt teams on the field last year, Alen. that kind of happened for both these quarterbacks though, right? It was kind of interesting. likeike they Lar more I think Lamar was more. he didn't have the same that he's accustomed to ha. Well that's a big thing I want to talk about with him. But I also think both of them it was a combination of like a little bit of Um, y's not being open for sure, a little bit of trying to do too much, but Yes. I think it was a little bit puzzling seeing them get sacked so much and have negative plays because that's sort of been both of their superpowers is like their evasiveness. They do it in very different ways, of course But u defenses are getting good man. They getting real good All right, so so far we are the same one Homes to Alen. I've got pick three and I'm going to take Lamar here Are we still in lockstep? I it'll be interesting. Yeah Okay Um So Look, we've been talking about this coming off of a down season. And I think you hit on something that for me is probably worth mentioning, which is when we think about like what happened in that season and why was there a bit of a decline. There were a couple things of the passing game. I thought he I mean, so you talked about the average at the target. I mentioned Josh All is twenty fifth. Lamara was fifth He always ranks pretty high and averageed up the target, but I did think last year, the offense was a little bit too vertical. There weren't enough gimmys The real thing that was noticeable and they still had hit on a lot of explicit plays, by the way. But the thing that was really an issue for him was just taking Sacks. And then also I would say not contributing as much on the ground, right? And some of that was him not running as much. He had his lowest yards per game and yards per carry of his career as a starter. U And I think it'll be interesting to see how much of that was injury versus him de, you know just kind of not wanting to play that style of football, maybe necessarily anymore But the pressure to sac was equally concerning. thirty first league wide, he really just seemed a lot less evasive than he had been in the past. So me picking him third and obviously very high on him and have been over the course of his career, it's a little bit of like, okay, maybe he was injured and next year we'll get a return to form becausecause I do think last year, he never quite looked like himself, thenen I absolutely agree. And Lamar has always been such a good pocket passer that he's still able to not be himself from a mobility perspective and still he has like one of the lowest interception rates over the course of league He hass one of the highest exp leos of play rates in large part because of the verticality. And so the cool thing about Lamar is that there are some quarterbacks who are very if you can't move, like we remove a whole keystone from our offensive arch and the entire system collapses, right? I think when we saw Jade and Daniels banged up last year, you saw, okay, we just cannot be what we want to be offensively Mars banged up last year and the Ravens still could very much. move the football through the air because of how good he is as a passer. With that said Lamar without hot wheels is still like, you know, that is a step down that is a downgrade that as a question mark because the two plays a game where he just solves third and eight for you by just running around and creating stuff. But then also from the mathematics of it all. from oK. now instead of being able to be a readoption team and solve our running game problems this way, we have to do more stuff like screens and RPOs,Z fires, mineline of scrimmage, blocking stuff. and now like Patrick Ricard matters a lot more than you want Patrick Ricard to matter and stuff Lamar is N not immune to, not vulnerable to. the injury affecting his status. But Mars also still the third best quarterback in the league right It has a chance to be like argument to second argument to first because of just how ridiculously good he is at just playing football playing quarterback throwing the ball. I think that the it's important to kind of think about the running and lack thereof and how it impacted the entire offense in the context of these rankings because like him not being as effective as a runner It's kind of like the difference between him being like third or fourth and first or second. right? It's not the difference between you know what I mean? like what you're saying is there's other quarterbacks when they can't run, you go from like tencent to top twenty percent. Yes maybe. And so I think That's an important point. We're talking about like Okay What's the difference between him and Josh Sallen, N not what's the difference between him and an average quarterback? But like, you know, the third down thing was ultimately M Part of why I picked Alen over Lamar, Allan who was six in QBR on third down. Lamar was eightenth, numbers even worse on third and long. I think you just, again, saw the lack of escapability really affect his game and expose. I think that the Raven's passing attack has always been a little bit dependent on Lamar's gravity. Some of that has to do with the players around him Alan has similar deficiencies, I would say, in his surrounding cast through the air. But Lamar was third in QBR with kept clean, fourth against the Bitz I like, you know, I think it's a misconception to think he was he was bad he just was very uneven last year. I would say in a way that just felt different from what we'd seen in the last few seasons. And I think a lot of times when guys have incredible seasons and don't win the NVP, we expect them to come back and like unlock a new level. and Lar came back and just got hurt. right? And then also I think that like you said, there's the receiver room in Baltimore, I think really Do does Lamar very few services in a way that we talk about with the chiefs and we talk about with the bills but we never really get to with the Ravens where when you're wide receiver one is D Fowers and you just can't really use him in the middle of the field, you can, you know, stretch the field out's not a big guy. He doesn't break tackles. then we' shhot Batean Dower Hopkins like you're very much kind of bottom the roster delling there at wide receiver two and three like Ravens need better play at passast catcher. If they want to be a little bit more serious there as a passer Zi is such a weird one because he' A good player Like he is better than any of the bill's receivers, in my opinion. But then he is such a unique and specific player that he's got limitations. All right, awwesome number two. You were up at four. Are you taking the typical number four here This is the Joe Burow spot. And I think that it rightfully should be. I know that we talk about it like a big four to me, it's always a big three plus. Just burough does not physically give you the scrambling prowess, the running game prowess the way these other guys do. Now obviously, the Homes is all scrambling, whereas Alan and the Mars is a little bit more structurally inside of the offense. But that's a very serious thing in the modern NFL. If you go and you look at just what the most valuable plays are from a down to down perspective, sccrambles is number one. It is a it is a high EPA play. It turns a negative play a sack not just into a neutral play, like a throwaway in completion, but into a positive play again. And Burrow just is a fine scrambler, but he's not the calibimber of those three guys. So to me, there's a physical destiny that kind of liits him there I think that also You like if you look like, you know, I pulled numbers over the last three years. He's about even a little bit below the other the big three guys in terms of ePaper dropback. He's even with all of them in success, right. He's even with all of them in terms of average net yards per attempt. likeike I think a lot of times when Bengals fans talk about it, they run to Total dropbacks, total passing yards.s like how this guy not be above these other guys. We look at on a snap to snap basis, he's about those guys, right? He's impacting the game at roughly the same rate. So that plus then the lack of legs to me makes a little bit more of a three plus. Now we've talked a lot about Oh, you know, the limits of the receiver position, how that impacts teams. Burrough is in a spot where he gets te, he gets fromamar and he is so well suited to playing with Elite receivers in the sense that he's such a good distributor pre snap to at the snap. he sees things so quickly. the accuracy is crazy. The ability to throw contested into uncontested, covered into uncovered because the ball placement is preposterous. And then he has to start working with secondary pass catchers. He makes Mike Keski have games, makes Chase Brown have games because how quickly he sees all right defensively Chase Gravity is doing this. The Haggins matchup is that. I'm just going to be able to take Chase Brown for seventy receiving yards in this game. He is very rarely, very rarely And I think relative to some of the mistakes we've seen the big three make, where you know, I can pull you to games last year where like Alen against the Falcons, Mahomes against the Jaguars, like multiple times they were wrong. You don't see those games happen in Berlo as often as it happens to other guys where they get got in high level situations, third down on the red zone enough times to create negative place for the offense. Burrow just is very consistently correct. And so that's the superpower that, you know if for're talking about legs, the other three guys. I do think that Burrows, you know, at this point the like it's inarguable the reliability, the consistency with which he consistently gets the offense into positive spots and long and late down. And so Burrow to me is the clear for I think that I would love to be able to make it more of a hererbert conversation at five, but at this point, like Herbert's had so many hits and so many seasons and so many opportunities that yeah, like to me, it's three plus and the burl kind of stands alone as a link between tier one and through two Yeah, Burough six seasons, three of them pretty significant injuries. alsoso obviously a big part of this discussion, right? you know, similar to what we were talking about Lamar and some of his injuries compared to Allen. It really to me highlights out it's less of like a me making a point about these quarterbacks and now Mahomes himself is coming off of a significant injury. And I think it's more of a comment on like how rare Allens durability is and's of tight end. He's six five to, forty five craz a lot, especially given the amount of contact that he absorbs So yeah, I agree with everything you said about Joe. I think like with him, it's the receiver question is always an interesting one, but I really like your point about how he also very clearly elevates the other receivers who play in that offense. I think you know, the Bangals have really improved the entire infrastructure around him too. Like the offensive line has actually improved. U the run game has become like quietly very good. So he definitely of these four guys is clearly in the best circumstances offensively, and it's not particularly close. That point is a really important point because I think that Bengal's offense is very Je Buro centric in terms of like the shotgun style and the spread style. It's very much built for him. And so there's an easy convolution, I don't know if that's a word. You can easily convolute that into saying Oh so Burow, you know, drags the offense along and makes the offense work Oh, it's a little bit more like stylistically, it's so built around him, but he's not, I don't think it's pulling as much weight as like a Josh Allen is pulling in Buffalo, which you can argue me off that because how good the handoff game is in Buffalo. likeike sometimes Allen just turns around and says James Cook fifty yards, please. It's like you can get me there, but I do think that people conflate the idea of this is built around Borough skills set to buroughs that the only engine here. So I think those two are distinct. Je Faka proved me wrong, came in and looked pretty decent. That was actually It was an it was interesting because we have because of Burough's injuries, we've seen other people get the keys to the Ferrari, right with different And there's been receivers missing at various points And a year ago, Brownie was pretty good. He was awful when he came in this season. But then Flacko came in and like at various points you really saw like, okay, if you have a receiver who has a big arm and is reasonably accurate because of these you know, Pably a quarterback probablyably recever Because of these receivers, the offense can function without Burrow, but you know, his accuracy is on another level compared to those guys. All right That's we're chalk. Here's where we're going get spicy Pick five it's been the Justin Herbert spot for Three year, F, four years Do it to me I'm taking Drake May here Okay, so for those who are wondering right now, why not Matthew Stafford? Again, the three year timeline is coming into play. Now, last year, you could have said that as well, right? And then it's like, okay, well you have gotten two of the three years. But last year, you remember the conversation around him was like very muddled and nobody knew he was even gonna play. It was really weird. If this was a one year timeline, Matthew Stafford clelearly would have gone right now by now. canan we say that are actually, well, buddy Yly now Yeah. I think it was a one year timeline, which I would t them ab a borough. I was t them above borough I think. other three I feel confident I was taking Ba Who's in a better environment, Matthew Stafford or Borough Stafford. Yeah Stafford. Yeah. but also Stafford w the MVP and Burough has like, you know, tort a lot of passes. likeike you know it's a different level of achievement in their really good systems.. Okay So I again, I want to remind folks This is a three year timeline. We are trying to take quarterbacks out of their environment. And Herbert's in a pretty awful one, which we'll talk about, I'm sure very shortly But so is Drake May Uh N not as bad, but um You know, I don't need to repeat everything I said when I explained MVP voting. Um The Patriots offense We talk about like which quarterbacks are the engines that make them go. He was so obviously to me last season, what made that Patriots offense that was by the way, second in pass ofOA and twenty first in rushing, which has to be the widest discrepancy of any team in the NFL. He was where us like Yeah, it was He was so fundamental to their success and the reason why they got there, even despite some I think, better than expected play from the receivers. Again, we don't need to rehash the numbers. statistically he was The best quarterback in football last year during the regular season. Now folks are saying, yeah, but you saw during the playoffs is inexperience and that maybe we were a little bit over the skis with him. That's fine. It's probably right. But this is a three year timeline And I'm picking this young quarterback to continue getting better U so I feel pretty good about taking him here above Justin Herbert, who As much as he overcame his circumstances last year, and alsoth he was really about in the way off too, right? We have seen more out of Herbert and arrguably we have seen his ceiling and know who he is, although, you know, you could argue improving in circumstances would change that. Drake Mays in year two and He only played one and a half seasons. Right. Yeah. L like arrows pointed way up. I feel like people have gotten way too low on him after the post season last year and I am happy to buy all the Drake Make stock that anyone is selling Oh but D did you hear that his schedule was easy, whichich means that all of his quarterbacking plays just known boy doesn't count. notothing on the film was legitimate because he got to play, you know, whatever the dolphins twice and the Jets twice. The displ again. Yeah I really thought I was going to get May the Way that May as a rookie. Played A Risk averse, operate eight to fifteen yards down the field, you know, kind of pop gun, success rate, completion percentage oriented play. And then as a second year player walked out and said, Oh, we shoot now. All right, we shoot now And then just the explosive play rate jumped up, the attempts that went down deep down the field jumped up. the accuracy down the field was Excellent, which is exactly what it was in the UNC film. The fact that we are already seeing a quarterback who was able to modulate play style relative to his play call, relative to the weapons available to him, relative to the defenses that he's playing at this young of an age and despite the fact that he can't really set tempo with the running game where you can't say, okay we're always getting into manical down distances because we're this good in the running game. No he has to be able to both be the Edie Steady engine where're like, all right, we have to get to second four, We have to stay aad of the st. We have to win field position. and then also the big play guy off of the shop play stuff That's just not a U Chameleonness that you typically see from young players typically they win the way they win, they lose the way they lose and they have to grow into a new version of themselves May pretty quickly hit as I can do everything you need me to do, right? I think that when I you talk about how people have started to undersell May and not appreciate what he pulled off. My thing with May whenever we talk about him, people always don't talk about the physical toolkit Right? He is like ninety five percent of Josh Allen's height, ninety two percent Josh Allen's weight, ninety one percent Josh Allen's movement skills, right? I mean, he is just like a little bit of a baby knockoff target version of what you get from Allen in terms of the runa awayay from linebackers, you know, bust through arm tackles from defensive lineemen, the arm talent throw on the move, the way to hammer these tough windows. like he he was he was the sort of athlete that always gets drafted top. five top ten at quarterback period. and then he's got himself a really good head on his shoulders. There's there's no reason to be anything less than like, you know, shiningly gloriously optimistic about May moving forward. And so yeah, he was very, very high on my list You had did you have Okay, who's your five or your six pick On my board, I have Justin Herbert ranked by Kayla Williams I really have I had one objective. I was telling the producers this in the show. I said I want to leave this draft with Caleb. That's like what I want more than anything else. I want to make sure I have Caleb when I leave this draft. I'm guessing you don't have Caleb this high. No. you're going to take Caleb Williams above Justin Hurt. I don't want to give the rest of my board. I have him High ish, I thought, but several slots lower You are going to do this Probably not. I really want to. I mean, now you told me you're not gonna to take them. I think you'll getem on the I I getem on the next pick. have Herbert to dis agrew with you. I'll take Herbert at five. We are not doing we're not x. We're not doing context. However, I would like to be buying Justin Herbert before the Mike McDaniel year. That feels good to me. I like like Well we are doing context when we talk about who these cordters have been. We're not doing context when we talk about what they're going to be. But context when we talk about what Herbert have been has been a just essential to the conversation. An offensive line that was thirty second in continuity, thirty second in past block win rate. Herbert was hit two hundred and eight times last season, rightight? That's that's total context. That's in the pocket on the run, whatever was against him for me because I was like these hits are got to add up at some point all right? Like I just and he has he has been last year he was playing through injury. He was an Ironman. He watched that in the NFL anal us we love it. We love his toughness, but like that adds up, Ben It was brrutal to watch less. He was tanking teen quarterback hits per game, which is like that's like Justin Fields numbers when he was a starter and he was running the ball like ten, twelve times a game, rightight? now Herbert the In the scramble rate was actually a very big deal for Herbert last season. It was something that the offense desperately needed was okay, you tend not to be a guy who like wants to talk around the football, but we're going to need you to do this because we just cannot protect in the interior let alone on the edges once they started to accumulate injury there. eight percent scramble rate was up from his his career average about five point five six before that. So a big leap there was a big leap in time to throw as well. He's playing in a Greg Roman offense and they were very oriented on these long developing play action, shot play pass plays I think people forget and it's been a long enough time now that we forget this, but when Herbert first broke out under Anthony Lynn and Shane Steiken was there and like that offense, that was a quick distribution offense. And when Joe Lombardy came in to kind of become the new offensive coordinator, the hope is that they would remain an offense that could get rid of the ball fast. and Herbert's got like a super compputer brain up there My one of my number one critiques of Herbert before this season was Herbert will too much just like stick to the rules of the play. like I will read the leverage of this player and do this and blah blah, blah, blah. And that means we're getting nine targets Tyl Conlin. We're doing nine targets of Tyler Conlin baby I know that didn't happen. But like in general, he can be a little bit too willing to color exactly the lines and not color outside of them a little bit. This past year, I thought he had to learn how to do that more and that was to his benefit When we get a m mato offense into the building, I think people will will get a new vision, a new realization on the combination of prorocessing, accuracy and arm strength, which is like very, very clearly. Howian quarterack are made up Um So you know, there's a I talked about the offensive line stats. I mean, one thing that jumped out to me, I was looking at percentage of targets over ten yards that were to open receivers and next gen stats. Yeah. First and second the Ses and the Ramps, right? Those are two offenses, a combination of, you know receiver play and also the scheme and the all of the things that they did, the play actually did all of it. So The trivers were twenty eighth last year. Reminds me of those great Roman the Marjatino offenses. Oh wait, why did we hire this guy And so that's obviously going to change with Mike McDaniel, who's extremely good at if I had to capture what is Mike McDaniel do? And we know there's like a lot of complexity to this with regards to how he uses formation and motion to do this, accomplish this, but in like extremely dumb, layman's terms, whatever He gets guys open first read, it is going to be open. and vertically And right, vertically. I think you make a great point, which is like that's such a good stylistic marriage for quarterback who is extremely smart and accurate like Justin Herbert, right? Like so I think yeah, like we've been wanting him to be like a little bit more loose and play outside a structure and he obviously brings abilities that to it doesn't to Mike's offense in that regard. But if this thing works, He's not going to have to do that as much. And I think that's why we're all optimistic about it. Look, want like He was still like, it's funny because I actually threw him an MVP vote and I don't know if anyone noticed that. I was When I was like building my fake MVP ballot Sepmber, I did it for like an article, I think. I'm pretty sure I had May one, Herbert two and I had Stafford three because The there was a point. There was a point last season. Yeah where like Yeah, it was against the in that cowboys game. This was like early December. Herbert had plus twenty three point nine total EPA again on pressure to drawbacks against the cowboys. It just he makes pressure not real. like it made it not matter. Now He went and played the Patriots in the in the post season and it was without question the worst Justin Herper game I've seen him play. He was not throwing the ball to open receivers. He was missing stuff on the scramble drill. It was making bad reads. like I think I am not one to buy into Oh we'll never do it in the playoffs. but two of the five worst Herbert games off the top of my head are both playoff games. no question he has wilted in January football The next three seasons, ninety five percent of those games are going to be regular season games, and I'm confident my hypothetical team's ability to figure out how to make it work in the post season around Yeah I'm just going with ciling with me. Did you have Herbert over May or you had May over Herbert I had Herbert on my left Williams Yeah. On my left side had Herbert above both Williams and they. Yeah. Okay. All right, so I'm not going to take Caleb I know I was trying to be funny here. I'm taking Dack Prescot At seven Uh on how good Dack Prescott was last year. I mean five in just about every meaningful metric. onene that caught my eye was just how accurate he was throwing the ball downfield H completion percentage over expected off target rates were both top two in the NFL, I think behind May, who was first in like literally everything. He was excellent kept clean. He was excellent against the blitz. He was efficient, he was explosive. Now he obviously got to play with u in an unbelievable situation with George Bickens and CD Lamb and the run game was good too. But I do think it's worth noting that offensive line had a lot of injuries last season in Dallas, you know, missing two other starters and for much of the season. So like I just think at this point Prescott for me has built up enough of a body of work consistently over the years where I feel comfortable that in the next three years likeike when I think about when I was thinking about this category and like, what who's going to give me what I expect, which is five to eight quarterback play. I just felt comfortable with that Yeah. The key is probablyrobably the most known quantity of this next tear for me. And at seven, I feel great I mean, like last three seasons, he's eighth and E paper plays eleventh and success rate. last season, he was top ten in both. He also was he was third and off target rate last year, fourth and incion percentage of expectation last year. A lot of what you say about Burough where yeah, you're playing with elite receivers, but I've seen a lot of guys play with really good receivers and A not deliver the ball accurately and B not of a high catch rate because they're delivering the ball to inconsistent locations, bad relative coverage. We could call this Justin Jefferson, JJ. McCarthy theorem whereere it's like, okay the Jefferson has his worst season as a pro. Yes, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that he doesn't agree with his quarterback. Dack is extremely receiver friendly, right? He precipitates out the best of some of these receivers. Nobody really was saying of George Pickinens Oh a clear like elite duo guy. right? I think the film was. We liked him as that. But like that wasn't what he wasn't P Dack precipitates that out of him in a way that other quarterbacks don't So you can like set your watch being like, you know, a minus B plus quarterback. It've been doing it for the last like decade and he has also like the postiesason reputation that Herbert does, but if you look at No he's been he's been better Yeah. Yeah. He''s been the bugsam is like one of the best post season performance by a quarterback at that we were I was there for that one. That's why back Rcot Joe Burrows, same E paper drop back in the playoffs one of my favorite stat To this is a little bit for me taking him over, the next little group of guys is a little bit more of a floor versus ceiling play for me. because there's a couple guys below him. There's a few guys who I actually think have higher ceilings, but I'm just this feels safe. Like the floor I get with Dack Prescout for three years is very high All right, are you going to do it? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, like I'd I I had one objective in this draft and was to walk out with Kale Williams. There's I want to be if if I want to be a Then so like as a blank guy, and like that's my reputation. I'd like to hit my wagon to the Kale William source Number one, last season, he's the only quarterback who bottom five in both sack rate and interception rate. He does not have major negative plays. And he was avoiding interceptions wonderfully during his first season with the bears. obbviously taking Sacks at a preposterous clip, but he didn't just solve that problem. He dramatically when he swung hugely from really, really bad to really, really good. Yeah That pendulum will probably come to settle somewhere in the middle. but you are below average sack rate guy while also being a league leader in terms of low interceptions, then' I'm buying it because you are avoiding the negatives C I interview you really quick. sac you mentioned sacarr. I want to high, you know, the pressure to sacarate in part because people might hear that say, Well, the beararss offensense line was great. But even when Caleb was pressured He still was not sacked. And I think that's worth mentioning because that is a quarterbacks trait that we're talking about and he had the second lowest pressure to sacerate in the NFL. There' the sort of stuff that Caleb can do in terms of pocket feel and pocket escapability. He still can be shaky as a pocket manager where he will like step himself into pressure, step himself in the tougher throws. His feet will come off of the correct timing with the concepts. But in terms of pocket escapability. there's big red siren spinning. I got to get out of here. He has a prenatural feel unbelievable balance,' crazy contact, you know, balance the ability to break tackles, like special, special, special athlete in terms of getting out of the pocket H youve seen this guysy thall football in? you see that actually I sling the rock between pretty good armz Unbelievable the I was going back in watchhing kale this week. You got to pick the guy who throws the ball like that. Like it goes back to like draft philosophy. goes back to how do we decide who first overall picks are. If you can achieve things on the football field that are geometrically unsound that are reality breaking, that are coverage unpooling, you got to get that guy in the room. and what Caleb can whole off in terms of The velocity on his throws his ability to get them up and down over coverage, the touch that he gets into the sideline and then the throw on the move and the throw from bad platform. there' like We have so much evidence from last season that you just never have to say die with this guy in a way that is not true of Drake May and Matthew Stafford and Dack Prescott and Just Herbert, let alone, I think like, you know, you can put Caleb into the Josh Allenter and into the Patrickon Homeser in terms of resrect bad plays and creating really good throws out of it overver the course of the season You saw him settle into the timing of the offense a lot better. operationally they got a lot smoother. The off target rate was still bad, but it got a lot better. The explosive pay rate still pays it off for him. So he's still one of the best quarterbacks by first down per touchdown rate per dropacks because he's creating big plays for the negativ ones he' leaving on the field by missing throws. If the bet I have to make on Caleb Mina, if the bet I have to make is that he'll become more consistent throwing eight yard slants I'm willing to make it. So the top of the bet you're willing to make and I think something that jumped out to me. And I think this is why I'm so high on his trajectory and also his ceiling. but I did also ultimately he was lower for me just because of the variance aspect. And you know there were some bad misses last year or too. and I think sometimes the accuracy can be still a little spotty. But here's something I found fascinating So Cayleb Williams had a three point two time to throw, which was thirty third in the NFL, right? And that's always going to get dragged up with a guy who tries to make plays and sometimes pulls them off and It's fine When Caleb threw the ball in rhythm two and half to three seconds is a quarterback throwing in rhythm under two and a half's quuick game over that is extended. He was second in EPA for dropback to Drake May and third in QBR. So I think what we need to see in the coming years and I think what we can see and he's got the coach to do it who was who you know had Jared Goff playing like an absolute a machine is Kenny keeps some of the magic in the extension while just continuing to play a little bit more on time because When he plays on time It's so good It's all about finding that balance then. And I think for him to be like truly for me, a top bot, whatever guy that has to come a little bit more into equilibrium Yeah, and he, the thing the number one thing has to learn how to do is how to take some speed off the pitch, some mustard off the throw and some urgency and some intensity. the weirdness is d Yeah They allow that is Baker Mayfield Theorem where like Baker has to throw every single ball as hard as he can throw it because like arm strength wise, he's not a guy who has like a ton of de his g Caleb has like every single throw and oftentimes will'll throw fastballs when he needs to throw curveballs and change ups and level these throws. The most important thing for me, and I remember he played the Vikings in week one, the lines in week two and they choked that Vikings game and they got destroyed by lines that're ow to. everybody was like, man, we knew B Johnson Cable would never work. He's not like Jerk offff was terrible. You went back and watch the film and's like ripping twenty yard digs to Roma Doomsday on time with location. there was a myth that Caleb wasn't doing it. And in my opinion, the truth was he was doing it with great inconsistency. But it was very clearly there. When it was on, it was on. And so the entire process of last season, which I think to a lot of people was an experience of, oh wow The light bulbs turned on. like all right, they're figuring it out. To me, they were like they were two steps ahead of that narrative arc the whole way down. to me the proof has been in the pudding for longer. And so I feel more comfortable, I think than probably the average person in saying, no, like this this trajectory has been clear, this direction has been right. Like you said of Drake May, like the arow is pointing way up. I think if not Drake May, then for no other quarterback in the league is the arrow pointing up higher more rapidly, more steeply than it is for Caleb Williams. I fully buy everything Benz Johnson's doing with him. I fully buy everything Caleb's done to improve his game talking again about the sac rate and the pressure rate. to me like again, like This marriage and what it's demanding from Caleb how it's making him grow. I needed this guy. I needed have my name to be next to him on my little Google sheet. This my bad draft ps. This is not the greatest draft picks are made is when you really need him. And it's not the worst draft picks are made when a GM gets emotional. This is your your emotional drafting right now. It's like a Zach Wilson proro day throw I watched that Caleb touchdown against the Browns the DJ more in the back of the end zone and I said, I can fix him. thr any whatever whatever it takes. All right Number nine is the quarterback I had above Gaya Biames I'm going to give you his rankings and I want you to just tell me who it is if you can. So blind guess this quarterback This quarterback was, let me finish them. don't interrupt me. thirird in QVR, second in EPA per dropback, third in DVOA, whichs for accounts for opponent. Allright He was second when kept clean. He was second on third down QBR and first on third and long. So everything I just said, this was a top three quarterback in the NFL, name that quarterback. That was all just last year last year life. Thatsd left discse around Jordan love to the third and a third long st, I think in the process. F first and third l los crazy. Yeah. I find the discourse around Jordan Love to be like the dumbest in the NFL right now Good take. goodood take. cllip that, Jack. Clip it Owen. It's so like odd to me that people won't acknowledge how good he's been U that he's clearly a top ten quarterback in this league. I have him higher. I would have had him higher than you I And when you watch, like it's it's yes, I think Lifler is the scheme is good. guysu are open It sings because of love's aggressiveness to push and ability to push the ball downfield to throw over the middle of the field, to throw guys open I think he is incredibly accurate And Yet he's got this weird reputation as like Like I don't know, Bret Fart like the worst of likeike like as this like irresponsible erratic gunslinger that is absolutely not consistent with the quarterback I saw the when we talk about guns slingers and specifically in the case of Jordan loveove, we use the terms say Oh he is irrationably and unreasonably pushing the ball down the field when there's something healthier for the context of the offense. When you watch how the Packers call plays, M Matafur calls plays, it's like, right We got to push the ball. We have this guy who can make these throws from these platforms. We We want to be taking these one on one shots. The gunslinger idea is that there's an alternative and our guys is unreasonably taking the alternative. No, for Jordan Love like, you want to build a plane of the fact and he can drop the ball in buckets, thirty five yards on the field. His ability to throw against leverage. We talk about man coverage, talk about dropping the ball in a good spot relative to coverage is just so sick. He's a hooper, man. I mean, he just feels any leverage is thing that really jumps out to me. L like sometimes when we watch my cover it's like do they does this guy receivers who are cllantly winning or do you have a quarterback's constantly placing the ball perfectly and I think that's something that stands out with him. Also like, you know, again, not the greatest like the offensive line was really like up and down receiving group yours injuries, you lose your best pass catching option who's a tight end before the halfway point in the seat. like you know, I think I don't know. He just doesn't give enough credit for elevating the offense around him. I think part of it is because Milos comes in and he looks great and we'll get to him. But I A huge Jordan Love fan and remain so. All right, ten, we got we got to move Oh ye, we go. All right. I really didn't want to have to make the tenth beck. To me, like the top nine were very obvious. We have I know want. We've taken my top nine players very comfortably. I think obviously like Now becomes the question of how early are you willing to take a Matthew staff? I'm not willing to take him here. So to me, this is the Jaden Daniel spot. I want take Jaden Is that your guy No. I had Stafford ten and Dana's eleven. I is again, it's so hard with now you Stafford because it's such an unknown variable of how long he's going to keep playing And you could be taking him now. For me it was kind of like it sounds like he's going to give us at least two more years based on the way he's talking, but yeah, me to me he's year to year like no matter what he says, just because when you're thirty eight years old and you have a back problem, you're year to year. And like I would put the percent chance that he plays two plus years at below fifty percent. And so to me, that was that was the limiting factor that made me run to Jaden. Now if Jaden had his If Jaden's twenty twenty five was his roookie year and Jaden's twenty twenty four was his sophomore year, the Jaden versus Drake May versus Kaylea Williams conversation would have been like a fascinating one here in that, you know, pick there in the seven and eight range. as it is, Jaden. clearly had a worse year last season when he was healthy, the accuracy came down. He wasn't as effective in the scramble drirokes because teams had a better feel for the fact thatkay want to keep this guy in the pocket. We want to make him have to make throws from inside of the tackle box when he gets outside of us, That's when he breaks our defensive structure. So we're going to challenge him to be able to get more through his progressions. That put a ton of weight on the commanders wide receivers two and three and four, which are players like Yo Samuel and Zach Earth, which was a huge limiting factor. Well, also much of the entire McLauren didn't even play. So the the wide receiver one was Yeah. and then you're getting a running game, which when it was Brian Robinson in twenty twenty four and when Jane had first onawned, Cliff was in his bag. The thing is Cliff has done best in the league is aect the running game from the shotgun with the RPO game. He's always been a great running game designer. twenty twenty five, they move on from Brian Robinson. We're going to do this you know, Bill crossame Merit. We're going to do this Chris Rodriguez and it just did not work. They were terrible breaking tackles the running back position So Jane was consistently put in long and ls and that's just not a winning position when you want to be a run first team I want to be buying Jane Daniel stock because I think that what they're going about to try right now with David Blaow as the OC and with some of this Ben Johnson style offense. is going to Jaden that which was done to Caleb last year, which is I for you to learn a little bit more about it play on time in the pocket, play on time with your fee from motter center dropbs, turn your back to the defense. But if you can get there, and Jayden has been so much better of a decision maker and throw to the middle of the field than I ever thought he would have been coming out of LSU. If you If you can get there for us, now we can be a modern passing game, right? kind of the modern met of how we throw the football while also wrinkling in a ton of really dynamic quarterback move stuff. and that sounds Absolute bear to defend. And so I am worried about the consistency. even pre injury and I think even at times in his rookie season, you saw some of the scatter shot accuracy that was problem for him at LCU. you saw some of the late decisions he wants to see it before he throws it. But in general, I have elite physical tools. I have proof of concept from twenty twenty four and I like what I can envision him becoming as he's forced to develop in this new offense. so I take Jane at Yeah, I'm a huge fan of Daniel's and I think he deserves a lot of the like we' talk about Herbert and A lot of that stuff applies to the commanders last year Um And like terms of context, right? becausecause it's always excuse I like to use word context. if we're notaking excuses. We're trying to provide context. If someone can control F's context on this podcast transcript, we can get a of a lot of results. It was bad. I think what I like the most about him, you know, you hit on a lot of the things in terms of like, Yes, defeense were a little bit better at taking away some of the things he wanted to do. And yes, you saw when he is definitely his game is affected when there's not that dual threadability, but I think he has within him and we saw that, especially his Roie season, the ability to play very fast And and be a quick trigger decision maker. And so I think that's always going to give him a floor for me You know, and I think that I agree with a lot of your sentiments about the offense next year and not considering it, but I liked the Antonyo Williams edition. I think I like this scheme change. So Cutiously optimistic about the offense, but I think what I my general point is I've seen enough from the young quarterback to feel good about him Moving forward. Durability remains concerned though, for sure. that is undeniable. going to be the whole way down, yeah U Okay. we don't need to talk about Stafford. I think we hit it. if we were doing this on a one year timeline, he would be top five This is the three year timeline. We have no idea how long he's going to play. So he lands eleventh. I had him tenth, but entirely about The one thing I noticed in Stafford during the prep is just that he is the tenth biggest change among fifty quarterbacks last couple of years in pressure paper dropback on pressure dropack vers on pressure drobacks which is just you are starting to notice it's so hard for him to beat high pressure teams because he can't move. And there's a fragility there, right? Because when you have that discrepancy and there's other players that will talk about the pocket passers where that's on display, you take out one chain on that offensive line and this thing could As much as people talk about the ramps not taking Mcai Leemmon and the fragility of the receiver group The offensive line, look at the depth chart and ask me what happens if you take out. one of those tackles. It's Okay So I took staff at eleven, so you're back out. We don't need to spend on time on it at twelve. Okay, this is an interesting. I have like Four guys tiered here I'm between I'm between two. I'll say the two that I'm between St Sroud and Trev are the two that I've got here. But what order what order? Very similar age, right? Sroud is twenty four point six Trevor L is twenty six point six. veryer similar in terms of some career arc messiness. Trevor started terrible. had a really good season. went back down. now great year with Liam Cohen and S you just stroud. greatreat season, twenty twenty four, no good. Bobby Ss fired. muchuch better in twenty five, But then the playoffs. like there's just Both them feel like like EKG quarterbacks, right? big peaks, low valleys and it's tough to calibrate to them I will I have Stroud above him and I'll take Stroud here. I think that Sroud's twenty twenty five was a lot better than people realize. It is colored and tainted by how poor he was in the post season, ten turnovers and two games, terrible. If you look at it an e paper dropback perspective in a successory perspective, Stroud had equivalent numbers in twenty twenty five to his rookie season in twenty twenty three where we all crowned him as the next guy He's going be the fifth best quarterback in leeague for the next decade In that rookie year, it was all about explosives, right? They were a play action team. He was hit in the middle of the field hard and they were creating these big gains. Not nearly as many explosives in this past season. But Nick Kaley would ask him to do more in terms of you know, reading out quick game, half field stuff, getting to the correct ID's and Strout is an aggressive thrower. He throws on time between zones, he places the ball correctly. He asks his receivers to make big plays for him and they've got the right bodies for that Nico Cology and taking some of these big catch guys And so he will be consistently correct for you. He has a couple of games like that lions's game sticks out where like his head just really starts spinning. He unspools a little more quickly than you'd like him to. But in general, he is Really, really consistent getting the ball where it's supposed to go on some of the basic halfield quick game stuff and then on the more of the play action shot play stuff The thing for me is the Texans running gam since Strouout has entered the league is thirty first in e paper rush and in inter terms of success rate. Only the riders are worse. So Strouout sees more third and longs per game any quarterback starter over last year years. Tim and Cayleb the only two to see like seven third longs per game. If you can Sroud in his rookie season saw tons of base defense. That's all down. saw tons of single hide, That's all down. If you can reintroduce a healthy Rushing attack to Houston, Shroud will look more like the quarterback we expected today. So I'll take him at twel. It's so rare for quarterback to not get affected by lungs bad line play not being able to run the ball. Like I know everybody correctly criticize Dad for what happened in the post season. But I think what you saw with both him and Herbert is stuff adds up And it can break you and it can cuse some bad habits. And so we can look at that and say like this dude's having a meltdown, an average quarterback would win that game. Yeah, but an average quarterback hasn't been saddled with this for the course of a season, hasn't been taking hits, hasn't been playing with an unreliable offense. So it's just I think you got to both quarterbacks deserve heat for how bad they were But It's really notable that that happened one against very good defenses and you know the think it heads up over the course of the season and you see that. That'ss a reason why it hasnds to happen at the very end, Ben And the truth is I'm reminded of this watching the NBA post season. where're like the pistons can drag Jayalen Duran through an entire regular season. no problem. You to the postseason, teams start picking on you, right? Yeah like the teams they'll take okay, you've been able to hide this for thirteen of the seventeen weeks of the regular season, but it's postseason football. We're after it, right? We're empty the bag of our best pressures and our best defensive looks and we've got a large sample now what you like, what you don't like. And so When we get to post season, ition no matter the sport, your Achilles heels start to really see a lot more attention. And so in the case of the Texans and the charargers, you had I think two quarterbacks who were doing a lot to drag some shaky offensive lines into postseason football. Well the moment you know, we get a Patriots defense because patriots for both those teams that's really keyed in on this then, you know, we're going to be able to break you where you your weakest in a way that we don't see in regular season bowl All right, I had I had Trev thirteen. All right. So so we're thirteen. I' you you know but I don't know but I had him in the same spot as you did Yeah So to me He's a little bit of a tricky one because I've actually been lower on him at various points in his career than I think some of you guys, you guys mean you and Nate who I know you know is kind of like the Trevor guy Hsters as friend of the Podo Koti would call us. And you know, there's been games with him, it wasn't just like, oh, man, you're getting like there were games during the regular season this year, even the beginning of the year. likeike there's just been games where I watch him and I'm like, this dude is just not consistent enough for my taste But I do think in the second half of this season, we saw an unleashed Lawrence who was benefiting from not just the improvement in the receiver group of the T for admers, but the play calling, the coach, despite the fact that this team so they weren't runing the ball particularly great and the receivers were still dropping footballs for him. But in the second half of the season He was top five in just about every meaningful quarterback metric One that I would highlight is he was slinging it. nine point four aa yards per attempt which was third league wide And I think When you see that version of him where he just trusts the structure of the offense, but also is able to make plays outside of Stucture two you remember that he is one of the most physically was physically gifted quarters the NFL that feels a little bit strong. But he's he can make every NFL throw. He can do everything. He has the size, he's got the frame, he's got the arm talent. Um, and remembering that ceiling and seeing it play out really over the course of like several weeks. was enough for me to feel like, okay, I'm going gonna bet on Lawrence's ceiling because it is as high You know, his ceiling is that of a top eight quarterback whether or not he'll consistently hit that. I don't know. I can't tell you that with confidence, but it was like, all right, it's there The so I like, you know, when it comes to my relationship with Trevor Lawrence and my belief in him over the time, it's funny because I find myself now more like at to your point you were Lower on and previous. I find myself a little bit more dubious of him now and the idea of being like, Yeah Okay, Liam Cohen is one hundred percent fixed him. Tv was really good at like seeing the first read and ripping it accurately. and he would just like, you know, grit his teeth and he will throw in the tight windows and he will throw to coverage rotations just think you can solve the problem. He's the sort of guy to me that like when the coaching falls away when you get the good defensive coordinator, he is not good at adjusting his game and kind of calibrating. He was kind of continuue to throw his you, head into the brick wall there a little bit in a way that you would have hoped he would have matured out of by now. so Why I I want to fully believe on Trev. It was back half of the season last year where things really got figured out. I'm definitely at least a full half of twenty twenty six, you not a little bit more from like being full throated in terms of you know this he's he's turned the corner. When I look at him relative to like some of the guys later like that are on the board for me right now, Yeah the physical toolkit isn in a massive massive difference maker relative to who's left. Ultimately why I chose him over the next two guys who I have in the same tier. Who do you have next We on fourteen I don't like this pick at all I will take I'll take Jared Glf here. Okay. I was deciding between him and another guy. Yeah there in this year the other I had go way lower when I first started doing this because last season was so bad. And then I went and got back into last season. I was like, oh wait, like When Gf was pressured, he died. When he was unpressured, he was pretty solid relative to what I thought would be post, you know, exactly Ben Johnson. S secondcond highest delta in terms of EPaper dropback when pressurered on pressured and Gar Gf And then I sa I was like gu right like, you know, you got to knock him down. And then I sat and I said, wait a minute. I already knew that about Jerk golf. Like I don't want to double count that. Like last season reminded me of much you can impact this guy with pressure, you know, through the middle of the field The Eagles game you know, the defensenseive attackles are dominating. It's cold weather, likeike there's limits on the guy. But I don't want to double count that. And I ended up moving him up quite a bit because when it is on relative to like, you know, we haven't taken Brock Bertd', Sam Donald, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, all these guys like when it's on, it's on, when it's off, it's off. But if you go and you look from like a personap perspective over the last three years, Gfs on this is above these other guys on this is' right. We were So I was doing the thing like if this was a one year draft for Stafford, we would both have them top five Let me reframe this. If this was a every te every quarterback plays but with a good offensive line like a top ten offensive line, where would you draft if you could guarantee ten offensive line play How high would you take Jared Goth? I' mean probably like fourteenth, like probably where I'm doing it right now I mean I would have him player? Aove like okay, so like because the four could J line The thing is like, he he's not getting above Dack for me He's notking aboverake and Caleb for me. like Stafford's talking abveafford for me. It's like, maybe's getting to ten. But like I think I'm more I feel like I'm already drafting on know. I mean, it's hard to crack the top. The top ten is hard to crack and then it gets it gets kind of frroggy. Yeah So so for the sake that right last three seasons, Jer Glf's like second EPAer play, rightight? And you know, Brock Py we haven' drafted is also first of there and we'll have a Brockty conversation. But gof lets me get to a lot of throws ten to twenty yards down the field that other guys can't make because of his way he sees it because of his comfort hitting those and some of the aggressiveness. He gets to checkdowns and adjustments of the line of scrimmage And throws underneath to keep the offense on schedule that some of the younger and more erratic quarterbacks don't get to I would really love if Gf could get his deep ball to like a league average place and then I would buy it so much more just some of the deep ball consistency drives me insane with him. And then obviously, we're talking about going to be a high a high pressure toack guy going be a high pressure is you guys. I really did not push the ball downfield last year, Yeah but just just the vertical ball was so good at Cal and now it's just not a part of his game anymore. It's very disappointing. For what he is. Yeahah, this is fine. fifteen, almost at a halfway point. this is where I take Brock pretty Okay. So Perdie's always the like The stats are so great and yet Why are we, you know, How much of this is Kyle Shanahan, how much of this is the team you know, because statistically he did C stop five and everything right? he always is The thing that really jumped out to me by the way is like the He was was he first in pressure to sacrate? Yes, first Wh because because we talked about Kaleb being second. I was like, Oh my Godd, Purty again. He's unbelievable on third down Thd and long, he's unbelievable. So when you try to like take out you know, u try to isolate quarterback play a little bit more. He's still very good I do think I have seen enough Purie struggle games against elite defenses, defenses that are able to confuse him, turn him over, that I'm okay ding him for that. But I also think the fact that he managed to prodroucce the way he did last year without Obviously Brandon Iuke with Kiddle missing a good chunk of the season with Ricky Piersa missing good chunk of the season. We got to give him credit for that Now the other thing I think worth noting is, you know, Mac Jones coming in and being as good as he was also a little bit of a point against him But if you're talking me three years I think I've seen enough from Brock Purdy where even without Kyle Shannon, as much as he benefits from him, I still think you're going to get a good quarterback play.. I really do. I don't think it you're going to get disaster like I think you can and right now we're at the above average point of this draft. Do you feel the same way? I thought I was going to haveurty higher than you. I thought I was going to get Purty. I' honestly a lot of notes down because I was pretty common I was going to talk abouturty just because of like you know, how we talk about him, you know, how much he gets helps by that Chann offense. I was like, all right, L I think can put him here. I think I can snag him. Pty I've always been a prettyty guy From like snap one prettyty guy do. He took over for Jimmy, playing the boxs, to playing the dolphins He started pushing the ball down the field and he started scrambling around and I was like, this is it. Like this he's going to bring a level of mobility and creation to the ninerss office that hasn't been there. The base office will work. Now we'll have some second reaction plays. This is good. But then when you weren't willing to like Christen him as MVP god of the leeague in twenty twenty three, you you immediately became like anti Purty guy I've always appreciated Perdie's game. Limits are very clear that Because he is so reliant on Kyle getting the first read open, it's a bit like Trevor, where once you start to fool him, he will throw himself into some terrible, terrible interceptions, But in general, we'll keep your off plays outside of structure, which is one of the things that differentiates from. And I do think his scrambling ability is both legit and an important part one hundred percent. It's a massive differentiator with him from past forty nine Carvex you know, the SOX have been on the receiving end of that. but also they have now at this point kind of owned they started to really put them on the struggle bus as well. So All right, the final pick of the first half Are you going to do it Is this a spot So here's my question, and you can answer this or not answer this. You know what I mean by it? Where are you going to take Sam Using this I have a tier of three right here. Yeah. I'm trying to figure out who I can push down my board and still get later.'m tell you So when I took golf, my highest ranked player on the board was Fernando Medoza, and I took golf Now at this point Ill think I'll take Mindoza. I'll take Mindoza here Yeah U Mendoza' a really good prospect.' been a top five quarterback in any single draft. ideal heightweight size. He's got excellent arm talent, right. It's a little bit more of the Trevor Lwrence conversation and the Josh Allown conversation where it's can make every throw. It's not going to be like you know, the on the and one highlight mixape, but like very clearly has it. excellent processor, great accuracy has scramble ability, has tackle breaking ability. there is, you know, the Fabricated concerns about him coming into the league are the concerns with the under seenters dropbacks and what be looking like timing wise, no RPOs. I'm extremely confident in the processor that I saw at Indiana. I'm also confident in the individual and the way that he's prepared and gone through the pre drop process in anticipation of the offense he's going to play. I think landing in Clint Kubback offense is going to be good for him in that regard because Clint's been really good at getting multiple quarterbacks who did not necessarily major in this style of play to become successful some of the rollout stuff, the halfield stuff And then he also gets a Brock Bowers Ashen Genti sort of an offense, I think as the weapons that and an office a line that isn't great, but I think will be good enough that it won't, you know David Caran. And so forer Nanna Mendoza here at sixteen, I want to be buying on the future of this young guy relative to some of the more average veterans who I think are good players, but Mendoza gives me a high tail outcome that those guys don't Who is the angriest? Which fan base is the angriest right now? Philadelphia. Philadelphia by a mile every time ' going to be feisty Denver, Dver' Denver. Yeahah, I think those three teams, I don't want to say anymore because I' start giving away my boards Um, I was I actually I thought I put Mondoza higher than When you say you're going do it you were't talking about taking a nose you don't No, I was asking about the quarterback who I'm going to take after the break Get summer going with a Firework Freeze five hour energy shot. You get that iconic freezer pop flavor, but with zero sugar and a five hour energy boost. Bursting with cherry lime and blue raspberry flavors, Firework Freeze five hour energy shots bring a caffeine kick without the sugar. Inite your taste buds with Firework Freeze five hour ennergy shots, available online at fivehour ennergy dot com and on Amazon As you know, managing maintenance, repair, and operations is never easy. but for the ones who always rise to the challenge, Granger has your back. From professional grade products you can count on to fast, dependable delivery, they're there to help you keep things running smoothly Plus, their technical product specialists are here to help answer your toughest questions. And because Granger knows safety is always a priority, they're committed to being your partner in protecting both your people and your facilities. Call one eight hundred at Granger, click ranger d. com or just stop by Sock good, so good so good. New summer arrivals are at Nordstrom Rack stores now. Get ready to save big with up to sixty percent off brands like Rag and Bone, Levi's, Adidas, and Free People. Join the Nordy Club to unlock exclusive discounts, shop new arrivals first, and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack All right, we're back. I'm taking hurts here. seventeen. Okay. Eagles fans. Uh, probably well, I don't finger under the pulse of evagil' nation right now Um Jayail Hurts and Shaan Manion are friends now, so optimism is through the roof. Ton of excitement about the positive relationship there in June, May Like so okay, Hurts was not good last year. He wasn't Like, you know, any measure, anyw way you slice it And I think this is obviously I would say it's not a make or break year for his career because I think he has a skill set that'll enable him to be an NFL starter for years, but this does feel like a make or break year for perceptions of whether or not he is always going to play with limitations. Do that fair to say? I think that's there. I mean, like who I don't know who outside of like, you know, a strong Eagles faithful would say Chan Hurtss can play without limitations. likeike can give them the right offense. likeike there's no here Yeah It's not like I'm not one of those people who's been like, Jaylen Hurst doesn't throw to the middle of field because of his play callallers. I obviously don't believe that. He has had multiple play callers and multiple opportunities However, I am of the belief that if Jalen Hurts is willing to run more it does change the complexion of the offense changes the run game in a way that helps him. It creates coverages that are more favorable to him. And when I say this year's make or break, I really believe if he is not willing to run more then all right, we're I feel like We've got a pretty U low, not low, but the ceiling is suddenly just comes down And so I want to see it. Like, willill he do it Is that fair Absolutely. Design runs per game last year four point three the lowest of his of his career as a full time starter, right since twenty twenty. Now, I'm not filtering out Tush bushes here and so you know, that's hard to do. But in general, his involvement in the first and ten, second and six design running game was limited. He also did not scramble nearly as much or nearly as successfully as he had in the past. He had the lowest first down per rush that he's had at any season of his career was not impacting the game with his legs nearly as much. If I have a quarterback who is not the same run threat he used to be doesn't access a area field in intermediate middle, throws to one of the l most rates of all quarbacks in the league. And he also gets dramatically more affected by certain coverages, zone relative demand coverage than other quarterbacks do. Like we have stacked too many Limiting factors, ways exactly, ways that that can affect you. Now before AriJ Brown leaves Right? And so we're also now we're seeing like, you know, like if know, Eagles, Oh why ist Jail Hurts higher? Well, Jail Hurts is about to we're about to learn something about him without AJ that like, you know, we haven't had a chance to learn about like Joe Burrow without Jamar Jason D Higs Nack Rresca without Cie Lamb. And AJ Brown was the L leagues best man coverage receiver in his time Philadphia Le league and targets perout and yards per rout r, L he was the man coverage slucion. So Jalen, who' already a lot better against man than was against Zone is now losing the receiver who kind of was the man problem solver for them. So Jayalen's never been more exposed. There's never been more visibility on his warts and defensive game plans to attack them. And so it's hard to buy stock upp right now. Now if he walks out there and starts killing it in the San Manion offense great. But how much of that is going to be because The running game gets boosted back up, the office lign more consistent guard to guard and it's just the same it's always been when it's jailed as a contributing but not engine factor in in an otherwise very healthy offense. I think what I would say is Um, His skill set is one where if you do have And I feel this way about another quarterbak was also in Green Bay, who's going come up at some point. When I look at Jaylen Hurts, I feel the same way I did about Russ various points of your career, which is because of his abilities and he does have a few special abilities, If you can run the ball at a top ten level. Let's say that. It often's going to be enough. I really believe that So good when I say good enough, I mean goodood enough, and we obviously we've seen this, but and they had more than a top ten running game and they had more that, you know,, but I'm just saying, if you could tell me right now that the Eagles offense is going to be top ten in efficiency and explosiveness I will tell you, this offense is good enough to make a deep playoff run ly because of his russian ability The fact that he throws such a beautiful deep b Um And it ssort of just kind of like the way he the style of play However when, you know don't you don't want when you're dfting quarterbacks and you're building in a vacum, which is what we're doing, you don't want to say this quarterback needs a top ten rushing attack However It's seventeen. So there's the draft for. L. I feel fine saying that Did you did you not have him next? Wh you're up next? Who did you have next? eighteen So he was Well and truly in this tier. I'm not sure I probably would have taken calamary above him and this is where I'm gonna to take calamie. Really? Okay, I had slightly below. All right. Yeah So Kyler, Sam Donald, Bon Nx Baker Mayfield. likeike we are in the conversation. Jaye Hurts, We're in the conversation of all right, I know how to win with you. I also know how to lose with you. rightight? I know how I know how to beat this guy. and I know what the limiting factors are The A Bone Nx has been statistically so much better than Calimer last few seasons. Sam Donald has been Jayl Hart has been statistically so much better than Calimer last two seasons drafting for the next three years, and I think Kyler outside of Arizona is about to remind us what it's like when you have a quarterback who has this much movement skills and this much accuracy Let's talk about something with Kyler. because I obviously've talked about him a lot and how, you know he raises the floor for Minnesota. And even in his last couple years in Arizona, though they weren't great and he was injured, he was basically average right, which is you know incredible for Minnesota. I a killed for average last year. But I have a question for you because I did have him. I had him in right a little bit below happen in the deepball because his first few seasons in the NFL, he was one of the best deepball throwers in the NFL And that has dropped off precipitously And there's a litany of reasons for that. I think one of them is Surrounding cast. Nature of the offense But do you think there's something about him s becausecause you now he go to a Minnesota Vikings offense with frein Jord Madison. Why to say Jordnison for Jon T Jay Hakinson. That's they built the passy around. Justin Jefferson and Jordandison All So the if he can approximate anything close to what we saw earlier in his career. Bombs away. But like, Kenny Like what happened in your mind So I wrote about this and I couldn't find it fastly quick in my drive, and I'm sure that I'll find it later. It'll drive me crazy. The first thing that comes to mind is that cliff offense is and we saw this with Jayen in twenty twenty four, very oriented on okay, spread out and formation everything in the moment you get the one on one outside the numbers, you throw it. And so a lot of the Kyler deepball stuff to me is are throws that were like twenty to thirty yards fld twenty to thirty five and just like up against the sideline one ones. throw the ball to D Andrew Hopkins there in Arizona Like, that's a great setu versus like ripping the post and like the deep over and some of the throws that I think are more like within the process, you know, first read, secondad a little bit later in the down. I think a lot of Murray's verticality was like, you know, what I would call a college ered verticality relative to like what we expect from NFL deep concepts the They're also like knee injuries, right? And so you have there's a foot injury in there as well, right? And so you also can talk about like mechanically, he's not getting the same power from his lower body that he once was, But she's a guy that needs that he's not a big dude. So he needs to get the whole mechanical chain torquking in order to actually get like a real mustard on the football. It's how Cayleb Williams like it's to see his secret sauce is he's got like just he's like a coiled spring Yeah. Deep accuracy is also if you at a league wide perspective wide receiver stat as much as the quarterback stat. a lot of his is your ability to adjust and win the ball above the rim. Now he's been more off target for sure, but like, you know I think that they wanted Marv to be good down the field and Marv just has not been good down the field. That impacts it as well Kyl large think that the The office we saw him in with Cliff was like well suited to what he was as a young in and okay coming up and like out of the college game. But he is a much better fit L I should say that. Now he fits with Kevin O'Connell it's such a different offense. People say like, all right, how is this going to work? He can't thow midd of the field. Yes, but he still does so much in terms of like throws into the sideline and velocity on the ball and the quick releases that a good offensive coach should be able to schem around Kyam Muray, the veteran in a way that's much more NFL, much more healthy than like the clliffs offenses with all his strengths It with all of its warts Murray is not a guy who' super involved in the design running game for his movement skills because he's not that big. so you don't want to taking hits as a scrambler. still Murray remains one of the more dangerous turn a negative into a positive playu one of the highest first down rates on his scrambles among all quarterbacks in the league. And so we're still talking about to me, a guy who impacts the game in two ways, legs and with the arm and a guy who makes well enough throws good scheming coach with the good wide receiver Core to be able to create explosive plays nineteen. I'm going to take the quarterback who was nineteenth in QBR and that's Sam Darnold 's well done Isn't the tier? we sounds that we have a lot of the same guys without giving way too much in the same tier. Um, kind of a funny like an odd season to characterize because started off It's actually similar to the quarterbcho, Ipect it's going to come out very soon who who we've been talking about a little bit. in that his first first half of the season, really, he was unbelievable. and then the wheels kind of came off a little bit in the second half Um, and you saw some of the issues with pressure and that have ailed him at various points in the career. And then he has the best single best game of his entire season when it mattered the most in the NC Championship. insane And then The Super Bowl He's not really the you know, the catalyst for the success, but he played fine U So it's a weird season to characterize Ben and it kind of makes it hard to rank him. I think the what I'll say is and why I feel comfortable with him here is you saw what he is capable of, which is he if you have a receiver like Jackson Binchigba, who's was the best receiver in football last year. I thought you played defense He plays O offense. says defense. I look like it said defense. It actually said o Oense Um Darnold is a quarterback. and of course, you saw this with Jefferson as well in Minnesota who is capable of aggressively delivering him the ball downfield. He is, you know, he he can sling it. He can throw it over the middle of the field. He's a great play action quarterback. So it's funny because we talked about Hurts and his constraints. And Darnold's kind of different in that I don't think he has constraints as a passer His problem is how he sometimes responds to pressure and sometimes can make bad situations worse and again you saw that in the second of the season. But I do think the ceiling is high enough for me to feel like we obviously saw theeiling is high to win a superowl Sam Donald twenty eighth last year, twenty eighth last two years among quarterbacks in terms of ePaper pressure drawback And I think that the When we talked about Sam coming off of the week eleven Rams game, it was like, man, we all know what the issue is with Sam Donald. like this Rams defense pressure teams right You can't do it. And then he has a great end of the regular se or excuse me, he had a shake hand of the regular season, but he has a great postseason run. and it's like, all right, like Now you'll never hear this mentioned. But it's the same thing like, Jayalon Hurts' twenty four run and aain. Donald's twenty five run Demons don't get exercised, they get banished and then they return. And so like the idea that Sam now is this is to me like wrong. Sam is what he's always been in his totality and his goodness and in his badness. Now Sam when he got drafted third overall, like The arm on Sam. Sam's the best arm we've drafted in the last like six, seven picks. And so on like you know it's it's nice to get Sam here this low because of the throws that he can make down the field, But it's important to remember that like Warts on the guy or soil warts on the guy even when he wears the ring on his finger. Like everybody knows the Payb for beatating' Sam and teams are doing it. seeven months ago, like that was happening I feel like you just inadvertently gave like four or five pieces of relationship advice in that description of sand ye ye. Youons don't need exercise, they just return Yeah. The warts remain even when he's got the ring on his finger. lot of a lot of bars. I mean like as a you know, married for six years, two kids now, when my buddies text me with like, hey, there's like dating advice. I'm like, please this is the only drama I get in my life. L let's hear it. What's going on deents don't get exercised, they just return. That'd be a tagline for like a scary thing. like tinkles over the head nine nine o'clock on ABC. this episode of the Bachelor. All right, twenty, who you got All right, I'm very pleased that I get to be the Bonx guy because it means maybe I won't get yelled at That's unlikely. yell honey gonna yell at you anyways. This is about where I have them as well. Yeah. Bonx, a play who I've always found unoffensively fine in a way that deeply offends a lot of people in Colorado is A highly ris averse quarterback who keeps the office on schule. since he entered the league lest stack rate among all quarterbacks, three point six percent. He does have more of a league average interception rate. A lot of those games come in flashes, right? whereere he' be like zero zero zer zero two, zero ero zero three, where he has these very high interception games. If you look at deep accuracy. Since he entered the leag. He has bottom two, bottom three in pretty much every matchpe completion percentage, off target rate, success rate, not a reliable deliver of the football. we start to hit fifteen, eighteen plus. He can hang a ball out there forty fifty yards down the field. And one of I think the dissonant conversation points for Broncos fans is we say Bow is not reliable throwing the ball down the field, Bo can't throw the ball down the field. And they say L at this Mvin Mims touchown against the Browns. What are you talking about? Like It's a beautiful seam ball forty fifty yards on the field. Bo is awesome at hanging the sucker out there on the home run shot doubles to triples. He's got to hit Cortland Sutton in a dig window. He's got to hit, you know, Mvin Mims on and over before the corner gets involved extremely unreliable placeacing the football gets their late throws those receivers into hits. So you have to operate really more within the ten to fifteen yards, right? moreore like the eight to fifteen yards and then occasionally ring the bell and go for the home run. Now Bow from the moment he walked in with Sean Payton understood where his bread was buttered is really good at distributing that ball fast. does it accurately at or behind the line of scrimmage to maximize yards for the catch. He can place it very well against one coverage in the shorter areas of the field. He just struggles with it when he has put mustard on the football. And so you can keep a passing game on schedule and then something that I don't think it's talked about with Bow enough as we saw in that bill's playoff game. you can walk out with the bow running game plans, right? And he like, you know, when they beat the Texans. it was on the back of a huge bow scramble in the fourth quarter, right to get that that game when he field goal. And so he is a little bit in the Purdy Joe Burrroier where Burr's wrong. He's in the Brock Purd Tier. Yeah Purdy is the one in near ryes me. Yeah, exactly. whereere when he scoots he can scoot on you That's impactful Yeah, I think both both There's things that he's already obviously good at. I think the scrambling is important to mention. he avoids negative place the pressure to sack you know, like the Branco' offensive line is very good, but he is able to point guard the offense, keep out of way or keep the ball out of harm's way and stay out of trouble and keep the chains moving Um He to me is the biggest concern I have is just the off target rates when he throws the ball downfield. I will say that did improve somewhat over the course of the season And so I think part of the bet here and I love getting a twenty, especially with Waddle coming in, is if that improvement can continue And to me, that's what has to improve for him to leap into the top fifteen or the top, you know what I mean like to be a u upper half quarterback in the league because that was what ultimately held me back from putting him there, even though I think, you know, like there also some variants too. I mean, people forget last year because it ended well. There was some pretty rough outings for sure. Yeah. I do think that The Broncas receiving group was not great though, and that's as good as the offensive line was and as much as occasionally Sutton would make him right on, you know, throws against man coverage and whatot on the sidelinine. this wasn't like a group of world beaters by any You know like the imagination. So This is a year where they got him they they they they got them ready, locked and loaded, armed them up with every military thing I can come up with with Jalen Waddle But I think I feel comfortable that he he's kind of Because you know what he's good at and he also has, I think some unique attributes, if you can just improve with that one thing, then you could easily imagine him, but that's a big thing to improve We're talking about being accurate right now that' kind a big part of quarterback. But the regression part is important. And also like I said, deep ball accuracy can be receiver stat. Waddle, like if you made me rank biggest moves of the off season Draft, trade fighty to everything. Waddle the Broncos is like easy top ten has the chance to just be the be the tipping toally slpped on now because I happened so far before the draft that I feel like you forgot Be the first reaction was like,, how does this affect AJD Brown Where's Adri Brown gocause that was a new cycle the time. Waddle the Broncos is a big de Okay, I'll go Baker twenty one. You know, he was I was alluding to when I was talking about Darnalold, although Darnold, I think did it for longer. Baker will look like the best quarterback in football for six weeks and then It's funny because I wouldn't even say like he was horrible the rest of the season. He was just wildly inconsistent the rest of the year. There were high highs and then very low lows, a lot of turnover worthy plays. he made a lot of Again, this speaks to the variances like good plays under pressure and on third down, but then he would try to force a ball on early downs and It was Just a very inconsistent season from him. twenty one, however, feels like good value for me We're at the point now where like every quarterback you take if you just remember their five best games. So like Mac out Sy twenty one likeike this is crazy. Baker just from Cleveland to Carolina to Tampa Bay just struggle so much to calibrate. Just when he is on, he is on when he is disagreeing with his receivers, when he's throwing in into tight windows when he is getting pressured. I mean, he just continues to Hammer high velocity balls into coverage and just lives and dies kind of on the one sword that he has in his quiver. and the toughness is impressive, the scramble ability is impressive, but also like the pocket management is just so rough at times because he's running to go be the tough guy and be the scrambling guy. Like he just He knows how he wins and he runs to it and only plays that way and never really modulates when he's getting something different from the defense when the offense see something different from him. He just marches to the beat of the Baker Mayfield drum. So he's not a guy thought I was going to leave this draft with with where had him ranked Serves a little credit, I think too, for the sort of general decline in the run game and last season, he was in more difficult circumstances than he was the prior year. All right. I think I know you're going to take a twenty two Kimward Camward. Yeah. So am I thrilled like, you know, forty ninth out of fifty three quarterbacks love EPAer dropback Cam W. Let's just start here. The stats are horrid last year. are ye as somebody who's been like, Oh, sacrate pressure dropbacks. I got a stat you on Cam Ward. Every was bad. However I watched him play and when I watch him play, I made him my first te all rookie quarterback at the end of the season and I got gotough from Giants fans and Saints fans alike. and I think that we'll talk about both those quarterbacks cases in a little bit. But just to me, Ward made High difficulty throws in long and late context in reed zone context in trailing by seventeen points context and first and ten context just across the board made more high difficulty, you know, spectacular playthrows than both Tather Sock and Jackson Dark did. They bothoth those players certainly had those moments, but watching those three W is the one where I say, okay Who's becoming a top ten quarterback? whose arm is is elevating his offense above a scheme pl to a point where like defenses fear him even outside of the pocket. to me that player is Clearly Cam W. He has to play more on time. He has to has to has to has to run the football be willing to scramble. He would not cross the line of scrimmage last year. He was looking for kill shot after kill shot after kill shot and understandably he wanted to score M he had he had it was it was nine designed runs on the season and seven of them came after Callahghan was fired. So with Callahghan, the plan was clearly never to use it. never to run him. So he ran two times.'s not You know but he's Baker, right? Like he's got a nice dense body and he can scoot a little bit. like you have to be willing to scramble and get the second and four, but he's just trying to score ten points in every single play. And he knew he was he was fighting a big uphill battle. They get Carnneel Tate into the building, you know, they they have a new offensive systemistant to the Brian Dable, Wande Robinson We going to be able to work a lot better in the short areas of the field. He's got a little RPO popgun game that's great, little arm angle change that's nice. and then he has some of those Really nice whistlers there into the scene up into the sidelines. So I'm buying the arm talent on Camp Ward at this stage So I bunched all these guys together, the rookies. And I honestly funny 'cause we're not really having this conversation like because they both all had I mean, it wass just not I more chuck and dark I'm speaking of. Yeah It was such a You know, I think they all had challenging situations, shall we say And I honestly amo of the belief that you could probably put the three of them in any order right now. And I don't think it would be that objectionable. I agree I think Ward. it's a beted on the ceiling. He played one of the best games against the C Yks of any quarterback by the way B. moment I saw that it's got of picking this guy twenty second the quarterbackon in May It's hard like, you know, it's some I mean, Caleb also had abysmal stats season one and it's absolutely like we have examples of quarterbacks bouncing back from that. Um, go shuck here. Yeah. that's that's. And I went back and forth because I think Dart played the better like two games, frankly, of any of these quarterbacks U but There's some things with him that concern me Whereas Sck, I think I saw a level of and he also he also they all had bad setats. so whatever. throw that out U I saw a little bit more consistency from Suck as a thrower as well as and this was like a I wouldn't say surprise, but it was pleasant to see a level of aggression maybe that I didn't know I would see necessarily from him throwing over the middle of the field intermediate throws trusting Oave at points to make difficult catches Now you add, I mean we're not supposed to consider context here, but you add another really good receiver who can make difficult catches in the middlefield. And I just feel like the arrows pointed up U againgain, you know, took too many sacks, I thought it. had some misses and I don't think you know, the mobility was quite what you'd like and certainly not as good as Dartt, but I feel like he showed me that he's got a floor as an NFL starter that maybe people didn't know he's capable of the Agressiveness, I think is a very important point. bothoth edges of the blade, right. Shuck was pushing the football down the field and making throws into tight windows more Eager than I thought he might now his open target rate numbers are pretty good, right? Kellen Moore' doing a nice job scheming some of that downfill stuff up Suck also is one of the worst pressure to sack ratios in the league, right? And Rokie quarterback bad pressure to sack ratio, suunr rises the east, right?ike when you know, not out about that you're all bottom five and pressure to sack. Suck's big thing year one to your tail is figuring out where to have the dial, right in terms of okay, like how much can Kellammore scham up for me? How much do I need to get chunk plays? Are we doing it within the structure of the offense so I can get rid the ball quicker.'sy going to throw theall way more, but also like some of the best stuff is some of his arm talent stuff. He's got a very nice placement on some of those arc throws. And so I very much am a buyer on Suck like on the rookie contract right the next three years. likeike you know Sain's long term, he's older and he's injury history. I' a buy on shuck. I'm a buyer on when I saw from Kellin Moore. they went to improve the running game, which was very, very bad, especially during their shuck stretch in the back half last season. Yes. So I'm a big, big, big saints buyer overall, but the way that this Saints Avenence fall apart is if Suck can't calibrate how aggressive he's supposed to be and he starts too many sacks, too many turnovers, and that kind of hamstrings the offenseive too many drives Are you going to take Dart next or some else? You gott to complete the set, right? Yeah, I'll take Dart here. I had a couple of guys who have been comfortable here and I'll take Dart just as we go through these rookies. becausecause like you said, I think that while like war to me was clearly a cut above, Dart, I think having Dart or Shuck above him is not what I would do, but it is defensible. And I do think that both Dart and Shuck had their flashy moments of brilliance. I think that Dart when you look at how good he was as a scrambler and accordingly as a third down playmaker, right? Some of the throws he got against the Eagles against the Broncos in that game that they should have won where he's able to create throws outside of structure because he has established the thread of his legs in a way that is surprising relative to what we expected coming out of O miss. Now. numumbers wise. I mean, Jackson Dart was hit. Where's my Jackson Dart piece there it is. Dart was hit. times excuse me one hundred forty eight times in fourteen games. So over ten hits per game. League averagees eight. It's no good and he doesn't protect himself when he does get hit. to protect him from that more, you'd like to either A get the ball out quicker, but they were already running like a shotgun orPO offense that got the ball out very quickly or B you know, have him stylistically. throw the ball way more, check the ball way more and not use his legs. But that was really the strength of his play as a rookie. And so there is a Chalis process that has to happen here where he play style wise, he simply has to change if he wants to have a long NFL career. but again, it's a calibration things. you still need to use legs to a degree. I was just talking to our producer this because this is coming up. we're talking about a John Harbaugh like culture question coming out of Baltimore. and I mentioned that I'll be interested in seeing how he, obviously, he's not calling plays. but how he approaches the utilization of DAart on design carries, which he had the most of if any quarterback in the NFL despite playing fewer games, which is Insane It's insane. Yeah right He's and he's fine size. He's not big Like' for quback. know, what I was saying in the producer is like, yes, he comes from Baltimore Lamar was a very different style of run. I mean, there's never been a runner like Lamar in terms of his ability the way Lamar avoids contact. like Lamar's injuries have not come from taking hits while running, right? Like you designed running it's important to mention for the most part. and like I'll be interested in seeing how Harbaugh approaches that balance. and whether or not they feel they can run the ball better without having Dart as a part of that Russian game. You know, you add Francis Maonoa to the mix, same back, Scattertb coming out from injury I think that's This was part of my discomfort with Dart was the contact and the potential for injury. I was thinking about that compared to these other two quarterbacks moving forward. Yeah. What that Tyler Juck He said like multiple insane injuries, right? but like Yeah. One of the great myths of quarterback and mobility is the guys who run more get hit when who get run more get hit more and then they get hurt more. when the reality is the guys who have run more in high school and college have learned how to get hit. And so they go down and they protect themselves and they get tackled or they know how to brrace themselves. Dart was not really a runner. like you would scramble. it was there, but he's not a runner in college. All of a sudden when he's getting a hge menu of quarback run, he does not know how to protect his body. He's not used to taking this many hits Chronic migraine, fifteen or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more, can make me feel like a spectator in my own life For Botox, onnabacha Linum tooxin A prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those with fourteen or fewer headache days a month. 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Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings, and eligibility vary by state All right, twenty five, I'm gonna to take Bryce Young here. I had trouble figuring out what to do with him. This is your biggest reach so far on my board Yeah. Well, at this point, I don't know, man. like we're at the point of the draft With the remaining eight got, what is it? twenty five organ we got to move pretty quickly here where it's it's so weird. They're all There's all big There's nobody I So I didn't I had them. we actually have had all the same tears except for you had Caleb, I think a few above mine or a couple above mine. and and Mendoza, but I don't this I'm done tearing them now. I'm just throwing darts. Yeah. The case I'm going to make for Bryce and I think this got a little bit slept on how bad the offensive line was in Carolina last season. and I thought which you know, I talked about this when I talked about most improved position groups, the fact that you know, they were missing Robert Hunt for the entire season pretty much and a Kan who was up and down and whatnot. But realize like So I was looking at quick pressure rate for Herbert Bryce Young faced the court the highest quick pressure rate in the NFL last season And I don't And he took too many sacks and obviously his numbers were not great over the course of the entire season, but like Maybe it's appreciated The run game was really inconsistent and the offensive line was kind of bad Yeah, they structurally they also do they do some like screen stuff and some swiming stuff where like Bryce just getting pressured fast because they're not blocking guysight. But I think that no, like Guard Center guuard was a problem for them for a lot of the structures last year, which Bryce is a smaller dude. And so you really want to have like a wall there on the interior and they did opt for him. I just like I have like, you know, My I'm where I'm at in Bryce, where like the physical size is so limiting and then We talked a lot about op peque plays for like Nicks and for Hertz and for Purdie. evenven the Bryice young peak plays are a lot of times like T please go be taller than the corner over there at, you know, to a point where like if I'm just winning on deep contested throws, I just feel like I'm not winning reliably. is for that. I think back to I because I was thinking back to the Rams game, which obviously was He got to finish the season on a high note. It wasn't all like I understand what you're saying. There was a decent amount of fifty fifty balls, but he also like He'll have like weird stretches where he's just oddly accurate throwing the ball to tight like not just tight w, but throwing ball downfield. And I don't think it's just I don't know, him leaning on his receivers per se I think that's very good That's good, That's good. All right. you you had him later. you have next twenty six. I'm thrilled to get the quarterback with the highest ePaper dropback over the last three years here in Malik Willis. what a win for me. This is crazy. So unfair because I was I said to myself if the Steelers had signed Malik Willis instead of Aaron Rogers I probably would have taken Mullig Wellis twenty certainly, which is so again, that's we're trying not to do that in this exercise Holy mackerel at Dlphins receiver group. And it's not fair. it's not what we're doing. We're trying to do this in a vacuum, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it knowing what's about to ensue. I'm just I I have every player left has massive, massive, massive physical limitations. Daniel Jones specically specifically about the Achilles, everyvery left has massive physical limitations exxcept for Mill Willis, who has an NFL calibber arm truly like you know, near elite, right? Great to excellent unning ability as a quarterback, right? The tuck and run the ability to break tackles and the design end and the sccramble game is very much there. You can create an offense that will give bad defense coordinators problem because you get to play eleven on eleven football. I joked about the EPAer dropback numbers. you have to lower your thresholds to get like, you, one hundred dropbacks over the last two years to get Willis into the sample, But when we have seen him throw, there is clearly accuracy when he gets to throw to his first read, right? He can throw guys open against man coverage with placement. He can do it to all three levels of the field We don't really know what he looks like as a to drop back for the entire second half of a game because we're trailing quarterback. and I think they're in Miami, when they're going to be losing these games. he's not going to have great receivers. We're going to see just how inconsistent he is as a passer, But I have peak passing and then I also have peak rushing. And so at twenty six yes, veryy happy to take mali equals here. All right, twenty seven is where I'm going to take Daniel Jones. Yeah. And I wanted to ask you this question. So Daniel Jones, the reason he's going twenty seventh after coming out of best season of his career is obviously well, even coming w at Um He is he is coming off an Achilles injury. We't exactly when he's going to play. We do know that's a very brutal injury and we have seen quarterbacks take a long time to come back from that. N that stopped the Colts from giving him a contract extension and talking about him like he's going to be absolutely fine. Um And that's really what I was just feel like I'm not there where they are I did want to ask you So if he didn't It's an impossible hypothetical because we don't know how we would have played down the final stretch. And I do think we started to see some warts crop up during the season, which maybe don't get talked about. But if he did not have the Achilles, how high do you think you would have taken him? I mean, like seventeen hurts, eighteen Kyler, nineteen Sam, right? Like I think like like let's say he's like average the rest of the way. the Colts losing the division aroundound and Sam has the the run that he hasn in Sam was the Superowl Jones' peak stretch. the first half of the year would have been better than Sam's peak stretch, but Sam actually got the hay in the barn. so you're probably putting Sam above him. So like there. the thing about Jones is like Let's say he' finished last season and and he had like the Colts had been, you know, the ninth best offense in the last twenty five years in terms of points for drive because they were on pace be the first, right? So let's say they were top ten last twenty years. I still would have been here being like, all right, do it again I we saw too much Daniel Jones over his time with the Giants, too many issues playing against pressure, too many issues with the sudden high turnover high sack games to be like, Oh, and now he's fine. right? So even if he had finished the job This is as obvious of a, okay, do it again before I really start to rank you sort of a player. And then you fold in not just major injury, but like Achilles injury on the plant foot for a quarterback asking to drop back. We just have seen that His mobility is so important to his success and that's going to affect his mobility. and then it's also going to affect his arm strength if Kurt Cousins and Aaron Rogers are any indication. And so now I've got massive physical limitations on a guy who wasn't really killing it from like the mental game perspective anyway. So it's now I need to see it again. and I also like really, really, really, really, really, really, really need to see it again Wh do you have twenty eight? All right, we're down we' we're We're in the drags. Nobody I like. I mean like I'll take I'll take Gino here. I mean, Gino's thirty five. How much theest cest quarterback I have right now is Jared Gof. And so I feel comfortable. I'll take one one geratric quarterback and I'll take Gino. He's thirty five turning thirty six. Geno's last season with the Raiders was highly, highly concerning from an arm strength perspective. would not be surprised if we're just not going to see Geno be successful for the rest of his career because he is such an aggressive quarterback who wants to push the football. So the moment his arm is consistently failing him. he's just going to be a high inter reception player who cannot reliably hit the windows he would like to try. If we get a Frank Reich season where A like the let's say the arm comes back a little bit because he's got another year off of some of the injuries and the hits he was taken in Seattle. If Frank rightright gets into a point where he's more comfortable playing short and close to line of scrimmage, then potentially we have ourselves like a nice veteran quarterback here who consistently gets to the first read his accuracy isn't incredible, but it's good enough. Yes, he's going throw you a lot of pick. He's also going to throw some spectacular touchdowns. He's tough in the pocket. He will play seventeen games for you You know, that to me that splits him off of Ta where I'm like all right, I'll take T a, but how many games over the next three seasons am I actually getting of him in the field? It's I'll take J youo there I The thing I'm most interested in seeing and obviously I've taken my lumps with Gino is whether or not arm strength is going to continue declining this season That was probably the thing that there was certain throws last year in Las Vegas Look, it was a horrendous situation. And This is a better one. And I think we're going to see a better quarterback. I really do think he's going to be better. But there were throws that like kind of died on him. And I think because he's such an aggressive quarterback It was almost like there were moments where he thought he could make throws. he wasn't making anymore, as well as throwing to guys who justn't you know, it was a bad offense. So think if that stabilizes and that's always I think it was impacted by his the offensive line and pressure and him wanting I think that the pressure he was facing affected this style of play as well and like some of the bad decisions and the bad whatever. Anyways If the decline continues, that's concerning And I think over three years, it is concerning But I do think there's a very realistic world where he's better than what we saw last year. Yes. I mean possible. I would be surprised if he is. It's the degree to which he is, that I think is the question. It's okay C he play with any bad arm strength or is it no arms actually back a little bit and now I can get twenty yards down on the field more consistently. But ye, easy easy to wash away a lot of the raaiders from last year. like h hired highest paid office coordinator who they fired by midseason, one year coach Pete Carroll, like everything there was very clearly mess. And so yeah, I'll'll clean sllate Geno for the jets in twenty twenty six. whichish it was another team but I'll clean sllate him for the jets twentyw nine My ninees, thirty, thirty one, thirty two. We have one two three, four quarterbacks slash T I here Uh don't do that. donon't do that Your pick is easy and fine. It's my pick at thirty that's awful U and this means that I think he's going get the job over Panics and that's the best case for Falcons fans is that actually that doesn't happen, in my opinion, that Px comes back strong and that he improves in certain regards, but it just it seems like such a long shot at this point U Tua was really bad last year. th he had like stretches of competent play, but I think the thing that was so alarming about watching him was He was bad in new ways, right? L He's always been a quarterback who isn't going to give you much outside of structure. He's not going throw th orertain has to feel in. But he was also like making really horrendous decisions last season at times He was bad when kept clean. U that was weird. So, but I do think And this is obviously risky given his timeline, but A hiss inury isistry, pardon me But I do think we're not that far removed from seeing him give you adit at least average quarterback play. So He was leaving in Yeah in like legit passing stats three years ago. like that happened. And so it is much it's more convincingly capable of happening again than it is the other guys. You go Dude like Can I pass? No No. No quarterbacks left. Yes. they are of the Steelers Browns and the Cardinals. I will I suppose I will take Aaron Rogers because I'm most confident of getting sixteen games out of seventeen games out of him than I am out of getting the two alternatives. I have written about Aaron Rogers now in the news that he is signed dealers. Thank you. He cannot move. his accuracy down the field has fallen off precipitously, his accuracy under pressure is fourth worst of any quarterback' se see the last five years. The ball's getting out extremely fast behind line of scrimmage because he just doesn't want to get contacted. So we have a quarterback here who is too old and is continuing to play to play despite the fact that he's too old. You made I know I know where I'm just like throwing out counterfactuals, but you made a really important point in that pace and I talked about this a little bit yesterday reacting to the contract about how we know Rogers at this point in his career Palls come out fast, zero. we doesn don't want to take pressure But he's still accurate And He could still, you know, he make most throws Anne. you knew that Mike McDaniel was the play callaller in Pittsburgh Do you think Aaron Rogers could put up a top fifteen season? fifteen is rich. on I think Daniel, those past catchers, Pittsburgh Steelers. I think the offense is good. A lot of players are good. A lot of what Mike is good though is taking the decision making away from the quarterback and Rogers would Well, you know, he's never going to do that. Yeah I just think like his skill set is one that you could hypothetically build a competent offense around, but like we don't trust. Yeah. And I do hear Steelers fans when they say, you know, we need better pass catchers because when you're going to live with this much yard sort of the catch, it would be nicer if you weren't thrown to like Michael Pittman and you know Johny Smith. I conflated two years there. But in general, you know, the rooms have not been as good as you'd like for it to be. You said Rogers have been accurate to can make most of the throws. I agree. He did lead the league in off target rate on downfield throws last year, right? It's important to remember when he throws downfield, it's extremely early in the down and it's usually because he's panicking and's supposed to throw one on one. And so he just and he hates throwing picks. He's consistently every single year one of the lowest pick guys. He throws out of bounds and then he gets mad at his receiver for not doing something. And so it's just so hard to believe in fifteen offense kind applies above average. And just like there's such a hard average cap on an offense that decides to play this style would have been really interesting. All right. Tyler Murray would have been What five percent of the price So bad Okay, Brissette and Sanders, we're calling it Brissette and Sanders because you know, it's obviously a B I want you to think about the headlines that will happen off this pod if Saterss goes last. And I want you to save us the you and I twenty four hours of awful hell and prevent him from going last Shador had a thirty seven percent success rate whichich is great.'s the only quarterback I was using FTN's number success rate, you know, it was different. The only quarterback below forty percent on the football Jacobbe was not great, but That cowboys game Mall prettyty good. It actually at times at least looks comp like an NFL offense The realistically, neither of these quarterbacks, I believe will be starting next season, which is also so So we're only playing for this season. Oh go shouldor here. why not? P holding out is the funniest holdout of all time. It's so good. It's perfect content. Do I'll take Shador here and you can have reset All right Kobeeret M go just a long time ago he' a better quarterback Yes I would say I would say likelihood of starting am plus games for the next three years. Jacobbei ero, shouldhor like one percent. So you you're actually getting some longevity there. theds. And the Browns, I do think have pretty improved circumstances for him. so There you go. That's it. That was very long. quarterback draft. Wh's going to be the angriest Eagles fans always Giants maybe. I don't know if Cult fans can be Eagles fans, I think Sahawks fans, Darlen at nineteen is going to get us into trouble Steelars fans, they get it 've He heard from them. Yeah me taking Kyer over Sam is going to get me a lot of trouble Oh I forgot you did that Yeah. Yeah. that's gonna be tough. You're in love haters. Fine Come at me. I'm this my guy. Wrong. All right, that's it for now. Ben, that was a lot of fun, Working folks, cheheck out your work ESBN dot com the Medicime show featuring Lenny, celebrity Jeardy season three, No just kidding. meane already won that and we're done. or ESBN's bowing out now. M mean is the go the champ