Speculating on Future Cabinet Roles

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We certainly want solutions, but we have less and less faith in Westminster. being able to deliver that Ronald R Reager said, there's no more dread sentence in the English language than I am from the goovernment and I'm here to help I am going to do things differently I am going to break with the more of the same approach that has got us here I am going to give Britain the circuit breaker it needs by building a more collaborative politics in Westminster by taking power out of the centre and putting it in the hands of the people and places who can use it best and in so doing, creating a new sense of agency, possibility and hope flowing around the country. We will make politics work for you and the place where you live. I know it can be done Because we have done it here. This was Andy Burnham's first speech of his premiership even though He's not even Prime Minister Yet setting out a radical break Everything that has gone before even within his own party and his own party's manifesto It was optimistic. It was conversational It was folksy But it was also promising a revolution in the way that we are governed Burnamism means anything It means radical change is coming Welcome to the News agents The newews agents. It's John. It's Mayelis and there was energy to Andy Burnham this morning, which activated the room and I say that as somebody who is very aware of the herd like manner in which journalists and quite often commentators work, which is we all get behind the brand new thing because we want to hear what the brand new thing is and we want to be sort of optimistic about the brand new thing that is coming at us But I still think even beside that, there was a way that he spoke to the nub of what a lot of people in this country would agree with, which is that the country has had a terrible decade, it has been broken since Brexit and in his words, broken since the financial crash. That is twenty years on a plate, he said, in which it hasn't really worked And at that point he pivoted and said, The reason why Manchester has worked, the reason why my policies, this place has worked, is because we've made everyone face the same way. That was his line. Everyone make face the same way and move forward in the same direction. And he set up this idea of Westminster and Whitehall being constantly in conflict as opposed to collaborating to get things done. And we often talk about that, you know the very shape of The House of Commons set up in an adversarial manner, set up to have the sword's length between your opponents. So you are literally fighting those on the opposite side of the bench And I guess This is where it becomes a really interesting question for whatever Burnhamen visages happens next because When you're just talking about Manchester, when you're talking about one place, your enemy, as it were, is everywhere else in the country. Your enemy is, can we succeed without being bossed around by Westminster or the center of Power or Downing Street, whatever it is When you are that center of power Do it work to start sharing things out and expect every single region to be able to do that to the same extent We've got to look at the significance of this. Andy Burnham knows he is going to be the next prime Minister. That is absolutely as certain as anything is certain that night follows day. And so for him to be making a first speech about the rewiring of government a really important moment Because actually, That sort of speech For those who go to Labour Party conferences or Liberal Democrat Party conferences, or even Conservative partarty conferences, that's the speech you hear on the fringe. It's not a central kind of main platform address. it's about people who are interested in government and the electoral system and the way councils should interact with the centre and all that sort of stuff And yet Andy Burnham has put at that at the absolute epicenter of his offering And the epicenter of his offering is that there should be no epicenter that Westminster itself should start handing out power, should start devolving power to the regions, that there should be a number ten of the North. And we heard him saying that that will be the kind of thing that inspires Britain to start delivering in a way that it hasn't for people before. And I suppose what is the political gamble in this is You know, if you're listening wherever in the UK and you're worried about your mortgage or your kids' education or whatever it happens to be the bread and butter concerns of people. Are they thinking the problem is government and the way we are organized. And that's why I think it's really interesting to say, no, no, this is so fundamental. this will change people's lives and it's an argument he's having. And then you've got a bigger question, which I think we should address is does de evvolution work Let's just listen to Andy Burnham setting up how he wants to take that centralised power away from Westminster with a very catchy alternative. Change will be driven through the Prime Minister's office in an extended operation based here in Manchester But here's the important thing It will only be based here. The job of Num ten North will be to make power flow into the Midlands into the southwest into the east of England, and yes, into London, as I said before, as much as into the Northeast, Yorkshire and the Humber and here in the Northwest. It will be about offering new opportunities to extend evvolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland by taking power deeper down. The people of Dundee and Banger feel just as distant from Hollyroood and the Senate as they do from Westminster.ook that wentn't done very well in the hall. You're talking to Manchester.. You're talking aboutank unions. and off course they're going to welcome a number ten of the North in Manchester. I think if you were listening to that in Plymouth or in Cornwall and you were thinking, well, it's hard enough to get to Lond from here God knows how much more difficult, you know, another it's five and a half hours instead of three hours to get to Manchester to s s to feel that we're at the center of power, then that is not going to go down quite as well, which is why his line was so important afterwards. You know, this is not just about the Northern South, this is about the southwest, the East, you know everyh is Scotland, West. Exactly I think there is something really important about localism. To your question of whether people feel that the way they governed is important. I think the same applies to government as applies to local journalism actually, which is that People have more trust when they can see it with their own eyes on their doorstep. You can see if things are working. You can see if your council's working, you can see if things are improving in your neighborhood. In the same way that if you have local reporters, you start to trust the news more because you actually relate to the stuff that they're telling you because you can connect it to your own lives So I think that that is not a stupid place to start rewiring the state. This whole idea of localism is what actually brings people's trust back to government I think where it gets complicated is when you say, well wider picture of devolution so far in the UK has not always been a great one, right? If you look at the health outcomes in Wales, which was devolved, they're terrible. sameame in Scotland. They have been bad, they have been behind Westminster they've been behind, you know the rest of England where Health is much more centralized And you have not had a positive outcome from devolution. And I suppose that is also what you're opening up. You're opening up the fact that you give people more power and some people will use it brilliantly and some people will use it terribly, right? No, it's interesting. because in America, of course, you have very much devoped power, but America geographically, of course, is way way bigger than the United Kingdom with five six times the population Do was they there during COVID and What happened during COVID was that all the individual states were competing against each other to get hold of PPE equipment. There was no one centrally saying, right, this is what we need to do so that we've got everything everywhere You had individual states trying to cut their own deals with suppliers of PPE. It just happened that the may that the governor of Maryland, I think it's a guy called Larry Hogan, who was married to a Korean She had good contacts in Korea. and suddenly this Korean airplane is landing at Baltimore Airport, chock a block full of PPE that no other state could get their hands on. And you had this auction taking place where individual states were driving up the price of PPE because they were bidding against each other to get their hands on it. Now that is the weakness of different regions, different areas with their own elected mayors competing against each other. Britain, we've always tended to have a very different attitude towards government than America. I think it was Ronald Reagan who said there no there's no more dread sentence in the English language than I am from the government. and I'm here And I'm here to help And of course, you know, in Britain We say, what's the government going to do about this? And in America, they say, this has nothing to do with the government I think we have become Our viewers change. We certainly want solutions, but we have less and less faith in Westminster being able to deliver that. And therefore, as you say place becomes important whereere you live, your community and how it's represented. And I think that is what Andy Burnham is tapping into. I think that the the ambition is massively admirable. I think the reality of you know how you deliver this, when you've got decades and decades of kind of, you know, institutional centralization turning that around is going to be bloody difficult. And does he want his time in government as Prime Minister swallowed up turf fights over who's going where, which jobs are being redeployed, which bits of the civil serervice are going to be going to somewhere else. all of that that is very exhausting work. You talk about America Um, It's probably just worth playing you over the weekend, Mer Mandani of New York was actually speaking about the World Cup and the Kicks, I think he was appearing again about the Kicks. Wellready He was definitely talking about the World Cup. He's talking about football, I think, and obviously he's going to be hosting. he is going to be hosting the final there towards the end of July. But he was asked about Andy Burnham And it's interesting that he does this kind of mayare to mayor thing. Just have a listen. When you won the Mor here, the mayayor of Greater Manchester congratulated you in a tweet. He now could become the next Prime Minister of the UK. I'm interested as a mayor of a city and I know you can't be president as long as the rule stays they are here. But what I'm interested in is, do you think the skills required to be a city mayor can easily be transferred nationally I don't think anything comes with ease at that kind of a level do think they are very important skills because Many people have lost faith in government, the place that they earn that faith back or they They decide to trust again is at the most local level That's where they see what it can look like to have a government that delivers for them. And if you're able to respond people whether it's in Greater Manchester or New York City It is at the heart of what people are looking for for any kind of politics. So I wish him well U I don't think he's an arsenal supporter though Noon's an Evertons voice. I mean, at least you can respect that someone has suffered. Yeah, and interestingly, Andy Berdham retweeted that exact exchange saying suffering doesn't begin to cover it. If you recognize the voice that was the sports agents Mark Chapman doing an interview there for the BBC for their World Cup coverage What he's saying there is about the importance of localism and you talk about the sort of US being very state centred I mean, Canada actually is one of the most probably the most evolved country on earth. They have different drinking ages there. So depending on which state you're in, you know, different drinking ages, taxes, minimum wage, health care systems, even languages, you know, you go into the Southern provinces and clearly French rather than English. The Swedes do their NHS entirely devolved. So there is no federal health carere at all, right? can different healthcare and different healthcare outcomes because it's all managed by regions. So I guess the thing is we're saying is yes, it sounds really energizing, it sounds really exciting and And in a way, I'm sort of full of admiration. We've been saying for a long time on this show We kind of just want at this point somebody to do something with a big idea and sort of hef behind it. So I'm sort of full of admiration for a big idea But I guess do have to accept then that while some things will improve, other things will get worse, right? Because that is what happens when you devolve power. You don't have the same standard everywhere else. I think there were a number of other interesting bits about it, which was, you know, I'm all for decentralizing I'm all for collaboration. and I think the collaboration piece is fascinating What does that mean in Westminster Term, where you have got an adversarial political system You have got hisis Majesty's opposition and you have the government How much more closely is he going to seek to work with Kemmy Baitno, for example Is he going to work with her? over social care proposals, which is something that he tried to do when he was last a cabinet minister you know, thought he had the back of Gordon Brown and it didn't happen. Does he return to that Does he return to welfare reform where Kemmy Badenoock offered to work with Kir Starmer and Kir Stahmer rejected it? Does he call Kemmy Badenoock's bluff and says, yeah, come on, let's sit around a table and deal with the problems that have been plaguing British society for decades and we have failed to grapple with. And I think that that would be a really interesting area to see what Burnham does. I thought there was something else that he did that was interesting. And maybe this is Niche and maybe this is just us as journalists take any journalists questions. He wanted this speech to be about what he wanted to talk about He didn't want to be distracted by one of us standing up and saying, who's going to be your Chancellor? Do you think Donald Trump's a wanker or whatever it was? He wanted to stick to his topics and he said, no ot going to take any journalist questions today. Now you can't do that forever. I think that you know there was a seriousness of purpose and a sense of self confidence that I can do things the way I want to do them I don't think Kirstala ever displayed that much There is a strange thing going on isn't there that we do have Prime Minister You know, we do still have somebody in the job who's power is sort of fading by the minute, but who won't be disappearing from that role for another three weeks, who's made clear he still wants to get his defense spending signed off, who's made clear he still wants to be the representative at the NATO summit in Istanbul in July. and then you have this completely parallel sort of power base of the incoming. I mean it's so strange. you'd have to kind of stop for a minute and say When he stands there in Manchester welcoming All the MPs, he said, were in the audience They have now sort of had to do what? Leave leave their their jobs or leave their leave whatever they were doing in Westminster and sort become part of the audience for Berham because they need to be seen now. they need to be part of the new shape of this government. I mean, it is sort of it's bewildering both How kind of smoothly this is all happening and in a funny way how slowly it's happening And I think Frankly, it suits both of them that it has been. sort of measured out like this because I think Starmard probably still wants, you know, to finish his work, and I think Burnham is not quite ready to be inside number ten. I mean, there is a lot of stuff that still needs to be done, but we are still in this sort of interregular which feels Slightly bizarre. Well it's very unbritish. It's what happens in America. You have the election on the fourth of first Tuesday in November and the president gets elected and doesn't take up power until you know january the twentieth. And we call it the Lame duck period. And we call it the Lame duck period. Kir Stammer must be hating being in a lame duck period, but at least he's still in number ten And he still thinks he's got things that he's going to do Meantime, Andy Burnham has a bit of breathing space To try and work out some of the things that will happen And he's, you know frustratingly for us, he's not announcing who his Chancellor will be or who the defefense secretary will be or know whether he's bringing back David Milliband as well, probably will. You all these things he's not going to answer just yet He's got a time to think but it is an extraordinary period I suppose the bigger question is What does he do next year or even later this yearet. If he's got a big bounce in the polls and people are saying Go on go for a snap election Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. 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I think that was the phrase you used last week, Emily One other thing about all of this in a wider political context is it also seems to be at a time when reform is having all sorts of problems. and Nigel Farage did that round of interviews, which were a disaster trying to explain away his five million quid bun and You just wonder And I heard it over the weekend from various labour people, Wow, maybe a general election is not waiting until twenty twenty nine. Maybe it could come even sooner with a big burn and bounce, particularly given the agenda that he has sort of sketched out today You can hear the sighs, can't you from our listeners who are sort of going, o my gosh, you guys are getting ahead of your skis. It's not enough for you to see one prime M minister off in one week and stop welcoming in another P prime Mister before he's even become Prime Mister. you're now trying to rush us all into a general election. Here's why I don't think that is Fanciful Two things that are important to bear in mind, and this is going back to polling, some of which is pretty old, right? But we have seen transitional prrime mininisterships before. One was Theresa Mayays into Boris Johnson. O was Gordon Browns from Tony Blair and There is a big question when this happens as to timiming of a general election in terms of solidifying your own mandate to the country. Now, if Andy Bern had come in and said I'm going to do exactly what Kirst Aarm and Rachel Reeves did, but hopefully I'm going to do it a bit faster I think that that question goes away a bit. It's further down the road If Andy Burnham comes in and says, The whole thing hasn't worked for ten years. The whole thing hasn't worked for twenty years. The whole thing hasn't worked because it's been Westminster foocus rather Manchester Focus and I know what works because I've done it in Manchester And I am going to literally devolve power to every corner of the UK It is a radical enough suggestion Bear in mind, he said he sees it as a ten year project It's a radical enough suggestion for him probably to have to think does need to get this signed off by the country So then the question is Do you wait or do you go early? Prime mininisters tend to be. Tritional prrime mininisters tend to be at the height of their power in polls, in the polling terms, within three months of taking office Now that is scarily short. If he comes into power at the end of July, we are talking about the hy of his power being probably what sun lounnges in somewhere. Exactly. So if it's within three months, I think that's pretty unlikely. I don't think anyone can contemplate an election genuinely in October, that sounds crazy actuallyually If the polls respond in the way that historically we have seen, which is that you lose more power the longer you stay in in that first year Probably he is thinking about something fairly Close to next spring. Right? Well, you use two examples, which you know, of, you know Gordon Brown taking over from Blair Thesa Maay taking over from Cameron Those are examples where you go for an election and things don't work out that well. Well, no, sorry I should have explained. Theereresa May went to the polls too early. she didn't need to and she failed. Gordon Brown didn't go to the polls and he should have done, and he then failed when it got to twenty ten. So let's look two examples. Yeah, so let's look at the one which actually worked brilliantly which was when they got rid of Thatcher Kanet was way ahead in the polls As the Labour leader, when Thatcher was Prime Minister, the poll tax was at its height, there were the splits in the cabinet over Europe and you know everyone wanted to see the back of Margaret Thatcher And it all looks certain for Neil Kinnick to become the next Prime mininister at the next general election. And suddenly the Tories get rid of Thatcher, John Major becomes the prrime mininister. he gets rid of the poll tax. and people think and you know for a moment, the arguments over Europe subside and people think, well, we've got what we wanted now And so John Magic goes to the ninety two election And against all the odds pulls off a victory, a clear conservative majority. Now Obviously all started to fall apart after that. but that was a moment where you changed the leader And you change the dynamic, and suddenly John Major is riding much higher in the polls general election and wins it. And I'm sure that there will be people around Any Burnham If it you know, if there is this bounce and of course our politics is very different today than it was in ninety two or twenty ten when we've got you know, when we've got the Greens now, we've got reform now, we've got restore now, you know, we've got all these parties that are now kind of vying for power. It is perfectly possible that something comes along and that Andy Bannon thinks there is an opportunity Yeah. I mean It wass very funny actually show. It was George Osbourne on Thursday night and He said, well, if Andy Burnerham's brave enough, he'll just go for this in three months time because you know, that would be the kind of the strong thing to do. And I said Really? Like would you, would you do that? And he went, No, no, I'd probably check it out. And so I think there's a sort of moment of honesty where you kind of go It's very easy to tell everyone else what looks sort of obvious from the sidelines I be Boris Johnson you know famously got his snap election and a big majority. Yes, he was up against Corbyn. I'm sure that played a big part in the sort choices that people were making at the time, but he secured that with a very quick election. He took over in July And we went the polls on the, I think it was the thirteenth of december twenty nineteen, right withithin what's that? fourour months? Yeah F months. I mean, with a very short lead time into that election, which sort of you scared the bejesus out of all of us, right? In the depths of winter, still managed to do it I mean I guess the question is, you're trying to work out Why you are asking people to go to the polls? It's all very well us' sitting here sort of politically going, o well, it would shore him up, you know, make him stronger. But you have to have a reason. to go to the polls. You have to have a question for the electorate. Boris Johnson had a very simimple ta question, which is do you want to get Brexit done And frankly, the phrasy of that was, well we want to get Brexit behind us, whether that's done or just out of the news or just never talked about again. It worked as a slogan because it was the thing that people wanted to see Done What is the question Andy Burnham takes to the country, which is not just, could you make me feel good about my own position Because that's not enough of a question to ask the electorate, right? The unique thing about Andy Bernam And you can't stress it enough is that he did not stand on the twenty twenty four Labor manifesto. He was not a candidate in the twenty twenty four election. And if he wants to feel that he is liberated Rome. The commitments that Kir Stama made thenen maybe he does think I need to get my own mandate because I don't want to be the person who's accused of ripping up Labour's election promises But I never said I'd promise them And that is, you know, Boris Johnson was an MP. You know, all the other people we've talked about, Tresa May you know, John Major. they were all MPs. Yeah. But it comes back to the same question that I'm asking, which is Andy Burnham can't go to the country and say Can you give me a mandate? You have to go to the country and say what I want to do. Say, do you agree? willill you vote for me if I offer X Yeah And that's the point. What is that X then? I mean, is the X is devolution enough has it got to be a firmer offering than that? Because he's not really saying, as Kistara could do, I'm going to get rid of fourteen years of toory pain Right? He's not going to say I'm going to get rid of the last two years of labor indecision. That's not quite enough of an offering. Be he's already there.. So the question is what does he take to the voters that makes them feel like yes yes to Labour, yes to Berham? Well, we didn't get anything. I mean, look, that speech was really interesting in terms of him setting out a framework of how he thinks Britain should be governed But the questions about you know, child benefit, the triple lot. You know,, he's not addressing that now If you're going to an election manifesto, people are going to say, how is this going to affect my balance How is this going to affect my kids' education and their prospects? And that's where they will want specifics. And I just don't think that Andy Burnham is at that stage y Or if you know, maybe there is a blueprint, maybe there are ideas that have been sketched out But I think that, you know, This has all happened unbelievably fast I mean really unbelievably fast that he is now very the next prrime Minister. Very fast and also very slow because we were talking about this happening. nearly a year ago in September when we imagined that that would be the the pch, right? We talked about it coming And the Labour party conference. And then we all laughed at Andy Burnham when he skuled off back to Manchester, having been sent away with a flea in his ear Well, I mean, it came because he'd clearly set the hairs running at that point. He did that big Yeah interview with Thomac Tag and the new statesman. he arrguably slightly arnished his copybook over comments about the bond market, and he was sort of scared back into the shadows, but I think in a way it hasn't been quick. It has been a year in the coming. As I said, You know last week, there has been an inexorability to this. It just feels, what's that lovely phrase, slowly and then all at once And now we're at the all at once To go back to your point, which was about sort of consensual politics, I do think there's something really interesting foot here as well, which is that Badenock offered Kir Starmer Her supports with welfare reform famous the welfare reform that never happened, arguably the welfare reforms that sunk his armour because They didn't take off I wonder whether she would be as forthcoming with a Burnham preremiership. And I say that because there was this kind of unspoken secret, I think Between the two main parties, when reform seem to be such threat to both of them. that the Tories and labour could do better by working together to prove the electorate that the old parties could still get things done, that they could still be effective, that they shouldn't let reform and farage in the door I now think that it's a very different landscape and people have you know predicted The death of Farage and his parties many, many times. so I'm not going to sort of go down that level But I do genuinely think to your point about the interviews last week, he was spooked by that He is still waiting to find out from the parliamentary status Commissioner, whether he has to forego a period as MP And if If if it comes back against him, if it finds against him that he shouldn't have received this five million pound donation without declaring it, then it is possible even that he could face a recall in his own constituency in Clact. Does that mean you and me can go back Clecton? We can get the fish and chips again. Championships. Yeah. We can go and sit on the beach in Cecton. I mean, we don't know how much time Farraage has genuinely spent in Clton. We don't know how weded he is to staying as the MP for Clackton But we might see within the next few days, this all come to Another pretty speedy head, right? If ten percent of the electorate of Clackton decide that they want to have a recall, then he has to fight that by election all over again I think it's absolutely fascinating. I think that You have People have always said that I look, we've seen with Farage where he has past suddenly said, rightight I'm leaving the stage a doz of Ben Stokes midway through a cricket session announces he's retiring his capaptaincy I think it's perfectly possible that if Farraage is found against by this inquiry by the Parliamentary Commissioner The Farr say rap'm not fighting it. I'm. And so that changes, I think Again Yeah know, when we were saying a few months ago and reform was riding high in the polls. It's a long way to a general election. And I think that, you know, this is a marathon for Nigel Farage not a sprint. It was really interesting that David Bull who was the chairman of reform until relatively recently had these words of advice for Mr Farage. He claims that he's not claimed any expensenes. Is of a one and David what do you think of this idea that when you look into a reform party meeting, it's like the bar room in the empire strikes back What does that mean? Well, it's a bunch of sort of Oh I see misfits. Misfits. Yeah, that's Martin. I don't think so. I've been there since the beginning with Richard. Tyice, for example, I'm very proud of what we've done. And what we're now doing is professionalizing the party. The party iss bigger than Nigel The party is way bigger than Nigl Does that mean that?? Does it mean that they are preparing for the worst, preparing for him to take himself off and say, to your point, the Stokes moment, you know, I'm done with this. I don't need this anymore And I guess have to say, we can still shore up vote, we can still shore up the party without him at the helm. but it would be a very very different prospect, I think. I mean Rupert Lowe, for one, would be delighted to see Nigel Farraage from that I mean, we are probably getting way ahead of ourselves. but the reason that we're raising this is just that Daniel Greenberg, the Parliamentary commommissioner is going to come back within the next few days. and so this could become quite a live issue over the weeks ahead and I think all this will play into the bigger picture of What do the Tories think about an early election? Kemy Badnock was very cautious not to call for on because she's doing pretty well. You know She is seeing her fortunes, if not her party's fortunes change. She is starting to really make headway, but she doesn't want to go too early You know, she'd much prefer to wait for the Burnam bounce to be over, presumably and on the way down and then go right, I'm here. I'll pick up the pieces Exactly. I think that's so true. Also just going back to what David Bill said that the party is bigger than Nigel Farage You don't think it is. Yeah. Well, you know, I's like when Republicans in the state say The Republican Party is bigger than Donald Trump. Well, not right now, it isn't And you know, when Donald Trump isn't there and he's opposing It's a real problem And if Nigel Farage, you know, just think of the way The twenty twenty four election. was transformed in that moment Wayne Nigel Farage announced he was going to stand And I bet you that contributed towards probably six or seven points, not forget Clackton but around the country with people thinking I'm going to revoke reform now because Farage is back in the race. He commands an enormous amount of public support. I think that the Reform party, if it is Richard Tice does not look as anything like as big without him We'll be back in a moment talking about a curious row in the homeome office and what that might do to some of the runners and riders Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahangian breeze. Baham Mar, located in Nassau Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, the richly refined Rosewood, the playfully hip SLS, and the stylishly modern Grand Hayatt, with over forty five restaurants, bars and lounges Bahamar serves up delicious dining from world renowned chefs like Daniel Balud and Marcus Samuelson, nightlife venues like the New Jh Batesee Jazz Club, and the Caribbean's most luxurious casino. At Bahamar, you'll find every pleasure under the sun and one of a kind experiences for the entire family, like Baha Bay, our fifteen acre lush tropical water park interactive wildlife experiences, including our daily flamingo parade, world class golf, tennis, spong, and so much more. Visit bahhamar. com today and discover a vacation destination where memories are made for a lifetime Bahamar, life Sctacular Britain is heading for a summer of chaos We have a caretaker prrime Minister. Barely in office, definitely not in power All major policy and spending decisions have been put on hold The last Defense Secretary resigned because the money needed to keep Britain safe has not been found Ministers of the Home Office are fighting each other In fact, the immmigration minister has been banned from seeing government documents. That is not hyperbole from Kenvy Badenock. There is the most extraordinary kind of Unfolding, it's like the glue that has bound a government together has suddenly dissolved And everyone's going their own way and thinking, I can do whatever I like. It's like the teacher has left the classroom. And all the pupils are thinking, whoopPe, I can do what I like. And so we had this extraordinary scene last week where the immmigration Mister, Mike Tat, unveils his thoughts on what should happen about indefinite leave to remain in this country. And it was not home office policy. So Shaban Mahmou, the home Secretary s He's got to be sacked. You can't do things like that. Kir Stama says, I'm not going to sack him And you're just thinking what is going on in the government right now Yeah, I think it does play into the point that we were making earlier, which is These are not normal times. So you can't pretend really that everything can go on as usual. I mean, in a way it's weirder to have The wheels of government turning as if nothing had changed, you know as if a policy was coming in, as if sort of a spending announcement was coming in. because we know, if you talk to anyone in or around White Hall or numberum ten, they'll say that this is a paralysis, right? You can't have a spending commitment, you can't have a policy, you can't really have an announcement because it could all be undone within two weeks What are they actually doing? And I guess the answer is, well argue with each other. I mean, you know, is Mike Tap right to say he wants a change to Shibana's immigration policy? Well Maybe he's thinking that she won't be his boss for long because she's going to move somewhere else and maybe he's thinking, well, I might come in and get that job. so I want to lay out, you know my claims to what it should look like early. He writes for the time. she doesn't sign it off And you've got this sort of almighty row. But in essence, this is just, I think, the mechanics of what is going on anyway in the ether, which is sorry Who's in charge and what is going to happen? It is not a. I mean, the country is still being run by Kistama. allegedly. He is still the Prime Minister. There is still collective cabinet responsibility until there is a change of government and the idea that a minister will just kind of completely go off one and You know, it's an intellectually interesting idea that he's talking about and it's in clear opposition to what Shabana Mahouud wants. But you can't have That is the kind of way to operate right now and then to say Shaban Ramou says, rightight, he's got to be fired. and then the prime Mister says no it's fine. And what you've got is people just laying out their own stool. They're just thinking not about the collective of the government. they're thinking about what's my next job going to be? I could get a promotion here. I think Andy Berher might like this. So why don't I lay out my, you know, my frilly underwear and see if Andy Burnham's attracted to it. Literally at the moment, you've got a whole cabinet who doesn't know what their next job will be or even if they will have. an next job in this government. A week ago, this time Last week actually it was the Tuesday of last week, I was told that David Milliband was very much in the running for Foreign Secretary. and I kind of like we sort of chatt it over together and we were like, that doesn't sound right and how could he come back in? and would he really be the right one for the job? And actually over the last sort of three days or so that has started to sort of take shape, it feels a bit stronger. I mean there was There is still a chance that it could come back in the cabinet, maybe not as foreign Secretary, maybe as Europe mininister, sort of a reinvigorated Europe mininister trying to help Burnham sort of shape a sort of post Brexit or a you know, a sort of EU role for relations with Europe I've also and I should say this has comes with a big caveat because Andy Burnham very sensibly didn't take any questions at the end as he pointed out because he didn't want to be asked who his Chancellor was, but inevitably those conversations are still going on And so everything that we're saying at the moment comes with huge caveats, which is that he is probably still making up his mind and maybe the people that are the runners and riders have not actually signed up to anything yet because they're still going to hear from him. from somebody who was who is Right at the center of things, I've heard a few interesting rumblings which I'll run through and you can sort of treat them as you choose Lucy Powell could be going to education U Louise Hig, very likely to be Chief seecretary to Andy Burnham and that Rachel Reeves has kind of accepted that she won't be in the Chancell of Job anymore, you know finally and is now lobbying to go to trade. The big question of the Chancellor. still The most central one still up in the air It's, you know, could actually be looking more like Ed Miliband. I think they've been right through the houses, you know, we've been through the kind of Shaban Mah mood, we've been through the Pat McFadden, we've been through the John Healley, but actually there is an argument which says if Andy Bernam works closest with Ed Miliband and he is at the center of his policy thinking, then you just go fuck it. let's get on with it. I bet you some of you are thinking, you're talking Bllocks Andy Berham has made clear that he's not going to do any announcements and that will come at a much later stage and everyone's just speculating wildly and doesn't know what they're talking about, which is a perfectly reasonable view to take of what Emily hass just said. On the other hand I've spoken to cabinet ministers who have had conversations with Andy Burnham, who have had been given some reassurance about their role in the next government. So you know, we may not have firmly High down Who's getting what jobs Clearly, Andy Burnham is preparing. The question of the Chancellorship, I think is fascinating because I'm speaking to people who are mounting a reargard action that says if the Britain's greatest problem is its borrowing costs, then the best thing you could do is to keep Rachel Reeves in place as Chancellor. Should we shake on that one? No, no, But I'm also hearing that you know because there was a backlash from some public sector unions about Ed Miller Band becoming the next Chancellor because of his stance on net zero and oil and gas. there is now also A lot of people's talking up, Ed Milliban And as for David Milliband,