Final Thoughts on the By-Election

Granger knows when you're a procurement manager for an office park You're not managing one building, you're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners Light's about to fail, filters ready to clog, HVac on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind Count on Granger for quality products, easy reordering, and twenty four seven support Call one eight hundred Granger, click Ganger d. com or just stop by Granger. For the ones who get it done. It's This is a global production. twenty four hours time in Makerfield, potentially the entire fate of the rest of the Parliament will be determined. You've got Burnham, he's got the wind in his sails at the moment. and so he's not terribly interested in being told by Kirama Just be patient feeles to me like is you've got a police van outside with a loud haler saying, comeome out with your hands up And you've got Kia Starmer inside number ten saying, you're going to have to come and get me. Westminster Consensus kind of moves to say, Burnham's got this in the bag. I don't get that sense of confidence whatsoever. from Barnon's team And I think they're right not to be Would you bring Bernham back into your cabinet? Oh Andy is a great asset. and yes, I want him to have a big role in government. came A going to call him at the weekend and invite him back into your cabinet? Well, I'm sure I'll talk to Andy after the weekend. Of course I will, I've spoken to him many times in recent weeks. And when I came into politics in twenty fifteen It was Andy Burnham's team that I joined him and we worked very well together. He's a huge asset. He's been a fantastic mayor in Manchester. and if he comes back into Parliament, I hope he wins by election. That's the Prime Minister speaking to Sky News And you can hear there political leader in the most uncomfortable place for a political leader to be. He knows that his fate is no longer his own. It isn't being decided in EM where he is at the G seven summit and it won't be decided in Westminster Instead Everything hinges on what happens here in the next twenty four hours here being Makerfield in the Northwest and whether Andy Burnham will be returning to Parliament and returning to challenge his leadership Welcome to the News agents News agents It's John, It's Louis. And obviously on the night of a big international football match, Lewis wanted to come to be beside a football pitch as want big time. and we are at Ashtonown foootball cllub. And a bit later in the podcast Emily is going to be speaking to a group of voters in some focus group that she attended together What it is that is making this such a keenly fought by election? Since it is a football day, Johns thoughts on the pitch here, Ashton. The pitch looks absolutely bloody fantastic. Apparently Andy Burnham's played here in fgrive. You know, the pitch looks good, ready for a new season. What's your prediction for tonight Prediction for today. No idea, but my prediction I'm more interested in prediction for tomorrow, which is, of course, in twenty four hours time in Micerfield. Here Basically the potentially the entire fate of the rest of the Parliament will be determined. We've said many times over the last four weeks or so that there has not been a more important by election in our modern political history. This next twenty four hours is probably the pivotal moment of this parliament because if Andy pulls off, which should be, something that should be on paper almost impossible right now which is a win in a seat where even in twenty twenty four, Labour only got a five thousand or so majority. This is very high up on the reform target list. I think it's in their top twenty or so of their targets. It only requires a swing of five, six, seven percent or so. If in circumstances where Andy Burnham is able to overcome the fact that the Labour Party is in the doldrums and still win in this most inauspicious and difficult terrain then he will have proof of concept to the Parliamentary Labour Party to go to them and say, Look, I am your Saviour and give him what he hopes and thinks the momentum he needs to seize the crown from Kiristan. Yeah, that is so interesting because It's clear that in number ten, they're trying to play for timepe They're trying to say, look, the most important thing after this by election, Andy, if you win is that we win the Manchester Meralty, which you will have to resign. So Andy, we want you to focus on that. And maybe then Andy. there willll be a cabinet job for you and you can come in and we'll embrace you. and you don't want to rush these things because you're not ready to prime Minister. They're calling it a steeple chase strategy. Exactly. Well keep jumping those fences, Andy What it feels to me like is you've got a police van outside with a loud haler saying, come out with your hands up And you've got Kia Starmer inside number ten saying, you're going have to come and get me. And that seems to be the Starmmer strategy right now. No I'm not going anywhere. No, I've got a campaign team that's up and ready. I've got a bank account set up. We've got a campaign manager. I ain't going anywhere and he' try he's going to try and make things as difficult as he can. Against that, you've got Burnham, who as you say, Lewis He's got momentum. he's got the wind in his sails at the moment. and presumably this is the moment. And so he's not terribly interested in being told by Kistama Just be patient. we can work this out over the long term. And that is the dynamic and into which of course, you've got West Streeting saying, you know, preared I'm prepared to give the Prime Minister some breathing space. You've got the weekend to think about it. But after that, you've got to announce the time of your departure. Yes, we've basically had it over the last twenty four hours. we've had the three, it seems to me, really important players in what is to come over the course of the next week or three of the most important players anyway Burnham has been silenced, he's basically not been doing any interviews since he didn't appear to remember what the fiscal rules were with the BBC. part partly, I think was a bit of Cy question, but there we go, you know I think his team decided that they wanted to pull back after that. So weve really heard very little from him. He's been focusing on the by election here and speaking to voters. That's why his team has been briefing. Starmer, the Prime Minister, very interesting, I think, that interview at the G seven conference, because he did move a little bit. On the one hand hisis team have been briefing relentlessly and he echoed that in what he said to Beth Rubby and other broadcasters that he come what may will fight any leadership contest. Remember that as the incumbent leader of the Labour Party, if there is a contest triggered under the party rules, he goes on the ballot to members automatically. He doesn't have to get endorsements from his MPs in the Parliamentary Labour Party. They have been briefing that ferociously The Prime Mister, it is said, feels that he has a sense of duty to the country that he must undertake and he wants to continue the mandate. We can talk about whether that's true or not, but that's apparently how he feels. Yet in that same interview, he did also move a little bit on the question of whether he will fight the next election. So previously when he's been asked, will you fight the next election or not He has said yes Unreservedly, without qualification, yes. In that interview he said he wants to That was him saying to Bernamsteam. that you don't have all of the cards, this might have to be a negotiated settlement in order to ensure that this doesn't end up in a sort of fit of bloodlust within the Labour Party and toxin and poison then fuses within the Labour Party, you have a bloody acrimonious contest throughout the course of the next couple of months. And then on the other hand as well you have West Streeting also playing his own particularame, as you say, John, saying that if the Prime Minister doesn't come to his senses this time next week, then come what may he will trigger a contest. He presumably still trying to magnify and amplify his own power and his own sense of being in this as best he can I think what's so interesting about this by election is look, you frame it in its historical context and you know I can't think of any by election in my lifetime where so much has been riding on it because you know effectively you could be deciding who the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is, and we've never had a by election of that importance before And so you have got the most massive interest the candidates in this by election. And what they're doing in public is in inverse proportion to the amount of interest there is. You've hardly seen Andy Burden doing interviews, as you have said, he's kept his media appearances to the bare minimum. Rob Kenyan, the reform candidate who is the main challenger, has been on question time, but that didn't go so well for him They abolly entirely surprising. they've limited his media. No not at all. But what you've got is that you've got both camps trying to protect their candidates because with Andy Burnham, he's not being asked about what you're going to do for Makerfield. He's being asked about what you're going to do for the country and when you become prrime minister and if you become Prime Mister, are you going to challenge it? And you've got Kenyan, who let's be honest about it, isn't the sharpest tool in the box and has said some pretty unsavy things in his past and doesn't want to be questioned. So you've got both candidates being shielded to some extent. And it's interesting talking to people here in Makerfield. We went to the Labour Club where they were kind of organizing mass canvassing today. One, I'm struck by the fact that there isn't that much confidence around and two, how many people are coming in from all over the country be part of this. This is a group of people who'd come down from Cumbria and this was their third or fourth visit to Makerfield. The closer it is to the election de the really gates is't it so people really start to focus their minds Do you think it' be a big turn up? There's normally by elections. I mean there hasn't been a by election last. It be a big turn. This has been well canvassed and people have interestested That's what it feels like I think it's pretty tight as well.ence in this violation which obviously generates more interest. Yeah That's why we're positive and optimistic and we shouldn't be overconfident. Of course we shouldn't be. We can't take people's opinions and vote this for granted. we're not going to do that, but hopefully Any will win and deliver real change. that's what we need.'ve just respect the people and it's the people of Makerfield that will make the difference Yeah Are you more confident about Andy Berham winning O England winning tonight. Both results will be tight, but they're both wins. I agree, I agree. you know we are quietly confident, but we're not taking anything for granted, just like England. Come on Andy. Thank you. It's interesting talking to Labour people but also people just this morning over the last twenty four hours, you senior in Berham's campaign. They're feeling and look, preface this by saying there's always bit of expectations management with this stuff when they're talking to journalists. But I don't think they're completely flaneling me. When they're trying to get across that they're far less confident than the received wisdom has become. It feels like over the last five days week or so, the kind of Westminster consensus heard has kind of moved to say Burnham's got this in the bag. Yeah. I don't get that sense of confidence whatsoever from Burnham's team, and I think they're right not to be confident I think we're getting a bit or we have been a bit in the sort of West the lobby have been a bit sort of overauled by two things. One is we see these constituency polls which show that Burnham is ahead. Constituency polling is very difficult to do. It's often on small samples. The margin of error is massive evenven then it doesn't show Burnham so far ahead as to be outside offten that margin of error. And I also think that Burnham's own personal star p which is significant. and as you say, John, let's be clear. If it were anybody else in this campaign, any other labour person, we wouldn't even be here because it would be a foregone conclusion. know reform would be winning it atcanta However poor their own candidate is And so I think those two things are coming together to occlude from them and to make them forget just how tough terrain this seat is.ab, Labour could win if it do a general election tomorrow rather than a by election, and labour got a majority, just a bare majority, let's say, three hundred twenty six seats, three hundred thirty seats or so. Labour would still lose Makerfield on that sort of swing. That's how tough this is. even as I said at the top, even in the landslide of twenty twenty four, reform did really well There's more of the consonservative vote that they can drill down into It only requires a swing of five six, seven percent. They won in Runcorn last year, which was just down the road and with a way bigger swing, albeit with only a small majority of it with a way bigger swing. let's look at the recent local election results Reform won every single councillor in those elections in this part of the world just a few weeks ago. And so you put all of that together And actually on paper, The fact that Labour is even competitive, the fact that Burnham is even competitive, I think, is actually pretty remarkable Yeah, I think that's absolutely spot on. And you know, I was talking to one of the labor organizers this morning and he was saying that in Gon and Denton in the Gorton and Denton by election A few months ago On the day of polling, Labour had a thousand people knocking on doors, you know, making sure that people going out to vote. And he says, this time it will be even bigger. I mean the resource that is being for someone told me that the Labour machine, which is as you say, been invested entirely in his constituency for purposes thing, they have knocked on every door in his constituency six times. six times. doesn't mean that everyone always was answered but they have knocked on every door in a constituency six times And that's just the labouror part in fact, one guy said with bad language just as a warning. One guy was telling me, he was like, to give us a warning. I know well, I've learned for the best. He was basically like knocksed on some guy's door. and he turned to me he wass like, Look, I've told you, I'm voting for you. Please just fuck off because otherwise, if youote knock on my door once more, I won't be. four people.ook just as we were walking here, I just saw guy putting stuff in his rubbish bin and he wouldn't go on camera We've recorded his voice about what he thought was going on This gentleman has just opened up his Wheely bin and it's full of election leaflets ahead of the by election. Are you fed up with it? I am indeed. That' sixteen last count w this morning makes it up to seventy. And it's just been non stop, has it? every day. A knocking on your door as well? Knocking on my door as well. Yeah, and you obviously don't want to show your face because you know, you've got a job and you don't want to see it. But this is crazy, isn't it? It's just overwhelming. It is, I can't believe. and they talk about saving the planet and the paper and the trees, etcetera. And I've got literally a tree in my bin People around here will be absolutely relieved when we bugger off out of it and the place comes back to being a place free of politicians, free of canvassers and free of journalists like you and me. because there are an awful lot of people who are descended on Makerfield to be part of this. We spoke to the guy who's the commercial manager of Ashtown football club who's kind enough to let us film here, Mark Cowley And he was telling us that actually, you know This election would have been so different if it had just been an ordinary labour candidate running So Mark, have you had the whole media circus around here over the last? Forbody yes, everybody. Everybody Yes. We even here I'll be season town The LBC wanted to pound to shoot out on the pitch, reform the labour but may be a breach too far. And they're in the worst problem in Makerfield, you tell us Yeah, I can't name it, but yes.. How do you think it's going to go on Thursday? I think maybe Libour may just win the Andy Burnham effect is a big thing around here. That's not a political bias me, it's just my thoughts. I think Libour may just win. Well let me ask the other question. then what happens if it hadn't been Andy Burnham standing and had just been Some nobody or know local councilor or whatever. Well, the recent council elections of twenty six wards in the area and reform one twenty five. and the only one that didn't win was a local independent who basically builds his own little area like a little hero. so labour was nowhere and I think it would probably would have been the same. And you talk to load and businesses and you know people here every week What do they think of brand labour? So leaving Burnem out out of it? What do they think of labour do you think? think what I think I'm a local businessman and I think the economy is completely flat. People aren't spending.ither the pensions are sitting on the money or the young ones are frrighting to spend. and it has that feeling and I've discussed that today at work, we have that feeling that we're stumbling along and I as a businessman, don't want to stumble along really for another two or three years Mark, can you explain to me the impact of Bernham? Because I mean, look, here you are, Ashtonown football club. If Andy Berham becomes the MP, becomes the prrime Minister, this is his local football club, is it? That has an impact and are thinking well this could be huge. Yeah, of course it could Andy has played here And he says he's a support of Ashton Town. He's played it many times. He only lives up the road in Goldburn. and hopefully if he does become Prime Minister, he will support his local football club. because He's a big football supporter. so yeah, that's what everybody hopes. And do you think that has an effect on how people are going to vote? I don't think it would have an effect on Ashton Town People won't think of Ashton Tone. I think people in Ashton may just think that if it becomes Prime Minister, then it may benefit Ashton, yes. I think that would sway a few people's votes, notot my particulare, but I think it would sway a few people yes. And reform? I mean do you think I mean in terms of how they're perceived because they are still relatively new. Why do you think so many people find them so appealing. It's a protest vault. people have fed up with tourism and labour, and it's just a protest vault People feel as though they don't know where to go, they don't know who to complain to. They're not listened. everythingvery is London. no one's bothered about actually make a field. Suddenly we're the center of the universe. no one's heard of us before. no one's heard ofig earlily, no one's heard of wigon and all of a sudden, people don't know who to complain to. So although on one level, you'll be pleased when this is all over and people like us disappear and you know life goes back to normal It has had an effect in terms of know making people aware not just about Makerfield and Ashton, but also about the fact that people feel they're fed up with the two main parties they're fed up of not being listened to. Yeah, definitely. People are fed up as Ive just said, peopleople are fed up It's a process v. That's what reform is. and far just tapping into it nicely and saying the right things and people want to listen, stop the votes, etcetera People want to hear things like that and it has that effect on the vote as it did in the local elections. Okay, Mark, greatreat to talk to you. Thank you very much indeed. Thank you,mire. I think what Mark said there is a really interesting point. I think there's been a lot of I think sometimes slightly patronizing commentary from some of the Westminster press basically saying that Makerfield Local people always want local politicians. And actually people are way smarter than, you know, what Mark was saying there is completely right. People as they said in America, you know, they can smell pork, a bit of pork barrel politics which might be coming their way. I. e, you know what? haaving the prrime minister as your local MP, particularly by the way, this will still almost certainly be a very marginal seat. You know we will have a prime minister withith an unusually marginal seat, you would have to be thinking about how do I retain my own seat in a general election probably does mean that I think Makerfield would not be think the old government investment project. The the old potter funding, the od perhaps new stand here Ash you know I mean Ash The Andy Burnham stand just to just about sixty foot high, I think. you really get this football club going. D't think that that's well, I think people are smart enough to be completely alive to that. And you know It sort of actually made me think a little bit about Makerfield itself, just listening to that. how unbelievably crucial it's been, right in terms of maybe the future of our politics that Makerfield has been the seat that's been chosen. Be imagine if Burnham had been allowed to stand in Gorton, how different this campaign would have been. If he was campaigning to his left this entire time, he would have made a lot of different decisions, had to in order to win that seat, whereas having to campaign in Makerfield with a very different sort of seat than it is, very different sort of constituency profile, different sort of voters has meant he's hat to tack to the riot, bit more socially conservative, bit more in reforms direction, given that Those are his princial challenges. Basically the choice of seats which has been t pretty contingent really, could easily have been the other way around potentially be utterly instrumental for the future of the rest of this Parliament. So we've just left Asston Town football cllub and we thought That's a wrap And let me came across the reformed bus and two people on it who are local councillors in Bolton, we wanted to speak to them about what is happening here in Makerfield. J we just introduce yourself. I'm outook a reform cououncillor for Bolton. Yeah. And I'm Trevor Jones. I'm the leader for Reform in Bolton Council. Right. J newly elected. Well, congratulations on being elected and you're here with your buss because you I'm the reform boss driver here The reform boss driver' been for the last four years. It's all glamour at top of localvernment isn' it U yeah. the bus it's a fantastic machine. It's promoted reform no end all over the country and it's also promoting me you know, a lot of people know me because of the bus. In fact, most people put me first, they say, What's the bus driver? They don't mention that I'm the leader of the Council for Reform and a councillor and the chairman of Bolton. They don't mention that stuff. They mention the bus driver. Right. So what's going to happen tomorrow It's going to be claose. I think we can just pick it. I hope we do because there's a lot of effort going in, a lot of effort when weform it here You know, signage wise, we've got a lot more signs up than anybody else. I just hope There's no damage done by other parties. I'll be honest, you know. What do you mean by that? restore. Oh, yeah, we've got to win this. We need to win it because the last thing we need is Andy Berham getting back in politics into this level becausecause, you know, what, you know, we we From a party's point of view be easer getting rid of Starmer than than him. he's better, isn't he B? Well you be more youd be afraid of Beron? No, I'm not afraid because I just think the old setup of him becoming Prime mininister.' he's just Total rubbish, isn't he to be honest? What he's done in Greater Manchester. I live in Bolton, which comes under Greater Manchester, he's done absolutely nothing for us. He's been depressing. I they call him the king of the North, I have no idea. I just want one other thing. I when we were just just John was speaking to in the bus and we were just here. Cples up Young ladady is in the car She says We don't even speak to her. She just says, Rob Keny is a sexist He's a sexist So we've just met you just in your car, you were just going to u Let's go to the shop. Yeah. And I heard you over here in front of this reform bus with Bob Kenyon. you just said sexist. Yeah. Why'd you say that? Well, I've seen lots of videos and stuff of what he said about women and that he's sexist and he doesn't care. What' you say they say they're not those things. They just say they're saying common sense. Proof that there is though, the proof that they are. like there's literal proof that they are. Like he literally said He said I'm sexist. He said it himself, didn't he? So how can you really argue when he said it is himself What'd you say to young women like that? Be people out straws aren't they? they you go back on anybody, go back on you, go back on you, go back on me twenty years. We've all said silly things at certain times. You don' You've never endorse anybody online. No I said they're going to lick Carol Holdeman. say things It's a normble working town. You go in any of these pubs on Saturday night and they hear what they're talking about in the language and youll say, yeah But you think I don't agree with things like that. No I think it's wrong. but we've all done things wrong. You can't pick stuff up from twenty years ago of what somebody said It an effect. Would you say it's had an effect? No, not really, notot with the people here. M mightight have had effect with people in London That young lady there wasn't from London. She lives here. I don't know, I didn't hear her, but you're saying she said that but she didn She may well' done, but on average No, I don't think the people are worried of about things like that. They want a local lad who's going to do good in their neighbor to represent them. But do you think the local lasses want a lad like that? I think a lot of people who know Rob know what a decent chappie is and I think he would represent the area far better than Andy Bernam who was just using it as a stepping stone, which we all know. He made these comments a long time ago And of course, you beure As you get older, you get more experienence, you get wiser about things you do When you're younger, you do things that you regret and a lot of people likeike he was fourteen years old I mean he was a fny grown man when he was making those comments. But I mean, I'm sixty and the things I've done in the twenties, I' go put my hands over me head, you know I shouldn't have done things like that. But you learn over time and the thing is you got the professional politicians who can rhyme off things. I can't do it. But he can't rhyme off things. He's honestly a new person who's really wants to make a difference in his local community. He wants to And he's put himself forward Everybody's got bits in the past because any top professional politicians' got bits, its always comes up. Unfortunately, you know, he regrets saying those sort of things now. I mean, at the time he probably is a joke and stuff like that But he didn't think he was going to be in politics. No one does think they're going to be in politics because I'm about sixty two. and I've just started in politics. You know what I mean? Never been in politics myself, never been on TV or anything like this. So this is all new to me But he's an honest guy who wants to do the best All the people of Maker field And he wants to support them. where Andy Bernin, he just wants to use this place to jump into PM's seat And that's that's the only reason he this guy's you know pulled out, you know, stopp being an NP and giving his place to Andy Berin so he can get in to become Pime Minister. And far as I understand, he's a lot more left than Kst Armour, which that's not going to help the country at all. It's going to make it even worse let's hear what Makeerfield voters think because they're at a focus group with one, Emily Mitless When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant, you keep production lines moving and quality on track because there's no room for slowdowns. With Granger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts, and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place, so nothing gets in the way of getting the job done Call one eight hundred ranger, click ranger. com or just stop by. Ranger for the ones who get it done Things are feeling a little less human these days, aren't they But isn't the whole point of progress to make things more human? That's why, at TD, when we design a product, whether it's getting you paid early or making debit card replacement easy, we ask one simple question. How does this help people That's how we're making banking more simple, more seamless, and more intuitive. But most importantly, that's how TD is making banking more human It's not just any by election. The ramifications of it are going to be massive, aren't they really? It will determine possibly Who the next prime mininister is? People don't look the facts. It was almost like Clue Cluook's clam behaviour. I't I could describe it. If Burnham does get in, it's on his personal brand and his personal mernd. Be it does kind of make you think is he disassociating himself with labour? Is he disassociating himself with starma We didn't come out of Europe. We had Brexit, but we never came out. We're still tied to them still saying what we what we can do An thatom me is what's wrong. Perar's problem has been from the word go. They broke the manifesto promises, he' weak He's a weak prime minister. I think he had a lot of inherited challenges, but I think the major issue has been his communication. Yeah I just think it's the media that portray reform as racist. but when you look at the top people in reform, they're not actually racist. I think he is using language like invasion, floodgates. We've got people, We' now migrants who have committed crime. been found guilty Yeah I'm the walk in the street. I'm sitting outside a beautiful old Victorian building, a library long since mothbald, sadly. in Ashton in Makerfield, we're about to talk to A group of locals, people from Brrynn, from Ashton, from Wigan as well who have all come to be part of a focus group For more in common and Luke Trill And the thing that really jumps out at you as you listen to them speak is how extraordinarily politically engaged every single one of them was They knew the candidates, they knew their names, they knew their TV appearances, they knew what they'd said, they knew what they thought of party leaders too. And you're going to hear some of their voices in my interview with Luke. as we go through the main issues and the main decisions facing them Just twelve hours out from the Make of Field by election result. So Luca, I want to start with your s spiel at the beginning because I guess the point about a focus group, the only thing that really matters. You can believe it, right? that you know people are telling you the truth. How do you know people are actually telling you the truth I think the important thing with focus groups and I think this is something that people sometimes miss is what we're not trying to do is get together a load of people who like talking about politics day to day, you know, a sort of question time style audience because actually they're not representative of normal people. So what you're trying to do bring together a group of people who when they're first recruited, you know very often don't know if they're going to be talking about types of chocolate, mouthwash, a new ad campaign or about politics, Obviously, you tell them before they start the group. And so what that means then is you've got to in the beginning of the discussion create the environment where people can talk about things that they're perhaps not used to talking about d They'll talk about with their friends, but actually they wouldn't imagine talking about it with a group of strangers. And so setting rules around there's no right or wrong answers, actually saying from the beginning, not just it's okay to disagree, but I expect there will be disagreement, but also agreement, sort warning them that I will often play deevil's advocate The most important part of a focus group is the first five minutes becausecause if you don't set the sort of comfort in the group at that stage and make people think, I can say what I think and it's fine, then and you know there have been times when I haven't done it well enough and the whole group' felt a bit stilted as a result So we are one day out from The vote. I mean, some people have already voted by post Was there anything in what you heard today that surprised you Well, I think, you know, I mean having been u, you know talking to people in Makefield for the best part of a month now. I thought what was really interesting because this is our final focus group before the result is that A, there are still who genuinely seem conflicted and undecided. and we heard about the sort of different currents that were going through their minds. you know I mean there was a strong view that you know Kest Stama Really and whether he was outright bad or just a bad communicator varied in the group And then the question was Would Andy Burnham as PM benefit Makerfield? You know, And there was some people who said, yeah, now having the Prime Minister from Makerfield be great. There were other people who thought that would be the end Makerfield would get no representation. Let's hear from Mike who said nothing at all for about the first ten minutes and then suddenly just came out with a banger Kase Stormmer call Stan the guy is very wishy washy. It comes across as having no personality whatsoever. You can't make a decision without backtracking or going and checking that it's the right decision with somebody else people he's surrounded himself with One comes to two that come to mind. One is Rachel from acccounts who hasn't got a clue She's in the process now of screwing pensioners good time by cancelling the triple lock She's already screwed veterans, I'm paying tax on my. Veterans' pension already Um And the other one is David Lammy, who keeps losing prisoners And he hasn't got a clue. Estalm's dead too be honest with you, he stands up and just the No personality whatsoever. Andy's got a bit of for him I don't agree with his polities, he's held bent on taking us back into Europe and we fought long and hard to get out of Europe. So he says basically Starmer's dead, but he's not anti labour entirely. Was he? When it came to Burnham, he said, Oh he's personable. He usees word personable. Yeah, it was interesting. He clearly thought that Burnnham would be an improvement on Starmer was important. He had some specific areas where he was worried about labour policy. He was a veteran himself and he was worried about legislation around Northern Ireland. But he was still weighing up, you, which way to go. But the interesting thing again was for him, it was that worry of If you get an MP who's the prime mininister Do they just abandon the seat? And he actually made a proposal to the group, which is that actually if your MP becomes Prime Mister, you ought to get a second one and everyone in the group seemed to like that idea. it seemed to sort of asuate say completely. Although saying that you know I was talking to former cabinet minister about just this recently and they said, you know, what a lot of people don't realize is that if your MP is the prrime Mister, actually you get a lot of attention because no cabinet minister ignores a letter from the Prime Minister about something going wrong in their patch. Exactly. So in other words, you're on the map and they all talked about sort of feeling like it was at the center of the world and being on the map talk about Sam because she raised U protest that had happened here locally and shse th as we're breeding I just want to play you The clip of her saying she was really worried about the kind of language and the kind of threats that the protests would bring. We'd to Reformers, the people that it actually attracts and the mentality of those people and I am really like this on who I'm going to vote, I'll be honest with you But I took my little girl bus sking for the first time wonderful thing. I took her to Wiggan and it was the day the protests were around on And people were screaming, seend them back, send them back the hatred and the twisted look on these people's faces But what broke my heart was kids were shouting this and I thought, we are reading like be and it doesn't matter who you vote for, but to take your childces and have this scream at somebody else But what I will say is If I was needing a bl blood transfusion, I would take the blood. any colored person that was in this country and you would say So she's against open borders, but she wants to make the point she's clearly not racist. She also said she got a lot of stuff from her kids And I think a few people here said know it was their own kids, their fourteen year olds, clearly very online and very engaged that were helping their parents understand politics, maybe for the first time. Yeah And I thought what was interesting was that across the group people saying that actually that level of engagement was a good thing that they'd you know their children someone, I remember it Samow said you was flabbergasted to have her children talking about politics and debating, you know, some of them being labour, some of them being reform. And I think said there was a conversation in the back of the car with two ten year olds. I find the young people an absolute inspiration because so my son is well our children are ten He was telling me about a discussion he had with a friend who's a reform voter and he's for Andy Berhaman and it was such a mature discussion and I questioned him and I said, you know, well, you know, but it's going to be you're going to reflect me. He's gonna to reflect his parents. What did you answer to that? And he actually went away, he did some more research and I said and what about at the end of the discussion were you all still friends? And he was like, yeah, of course. I said, you know what? That sounds like one of the most mature violation discussions that I've actually heard. And Yeah And it's same with the students because Winstony College has had a lot of attention So a group of my students actually interviewed Sarah Wakefield, came up with all their own questions. they've been involved in the hustings and The way that the young people that have come into contact discuss politics is just fantastic, it's respectful, it's reasoned. And I think there is hope for the future, but some of the wider discourse has been a bit more divisive. They thought that that level of engagement was a great thing know and they talked about the green candidate having visited the local college as well. And it was clear, you know they thought that was a really good thing in general, you know, not just the kids. I mean, what was striking was, you know, I do these groups for by elections all the time Most of the time, people can't name the candidates. half the people, you know, aren't aware that there's a by election going on. They'll talk about national politics. This is serious. People are following the twists and the turns of it and it means that kind of almost every moment counts and to that point about Sam. The interesting thing about Sam is I think she's quite reflective of what I call reform second fifteen percent. So the group that get them up from the fifteen percent that they got at the general election to the thirty percent or above that they would need to start forming a government. And look you know on issues like channel crossings, very clear they need to be controlled, but what was giving her pause, what had put her off reform was a was being in wiggan whilst there was that anti immigration protest, seeing you know, she described kids saying, you know, send them back And I think For her, that made her just think, actually, what is reformed going to unleash. And we speak to a lot of women like Sam who are like, things are pretty bad. I do want to roll the dice on something new just worried reformer a bit too extreme. And I think she summed up actually their challenge and it seemed very likely now that she was going to go for Andy Burnham. It felt like there was a gender difference. like the people who voiced their concerns about racism or about the language or about approach were all women Right There was also a really interesting sort of dialogue going on between John and Jeff and Jeff is a fact checker. He takes his analysis, you know, fact checking really seriously And he was cross with John who just sort of spewed out stuff that he'd heard without checking it. I guess this comes back to the whole question of how quickly some of the fake news stories are traveveling at the moment, particularly the one about Burnham's wife being the CEO of an electric vehicles company. So ye I researched it and I found that at the time that decisions were being made about the clean air zone Benham's wife was not actually on the board at all initially. She was her marketing company did some work for an EV fun And so Andy Berham recused himself from all of those decisions regarding like contracts and and her role in one of in that firm has increased since she's still not the CEO. She is she is she has now got a position on the board, but Andy Andy Berham through Andy Berham did declare that interest. So he went he did he did absolutely what he' supposed to do. that he declared the interest And he recuced himself from being involved in those decisions. I think we were barely ten minutes into the fooccus group and that allegation that either the clean air zone had been imposed because Burnham's wife was CEO of an EV company or that Burnham was trying to force people to get EVs came out. And there were a few people, I mean, John clearly, you know believed what he had read. Others in the group said, Well, electrro vehicles company I think we were barely ten minutes into the focus group and that allegation that either the clean air zone had been imposed because Burnham's wife was CEO of an EV company or that Burnham was trying to force people to get EVs came out. And there were a few people, I mean, John clear believed what he had read. Others in the group said, well, I haven't fact check it, but you know why wouldn't it be true? Others, Louise the teacher, had gone away and had a look at it and found out that that wasn't quite the truth, simimilarly with Jeff as well. But it was interesting, you know it had permeated across group whether people believed it or not When I asked people, Where'd you heard that? Where'd you got it from? It was from Facebook. Yeah. they had seen it in local Facebook groups and you know they still call it the news. The news if it's a thing, right? They absolutely call it the news, which I think tells you something about the fact that Facebook is now seen as on a par with traditional news. It's also interesting, if you look at someone like Rupert Low, his rise has almost entirely been driven by Facebook. People talk about X, but actually for , exX is for more politically engaged people. Rupert Leer has one point two million, I think, followers on Facebook. I think the Prime Minister has seven hundred thousand So he is reaching people through that medium and it's made him turn a one man band into a party which was being discussed in this group even if people weren't planning on voting for them. When it came to reform, the language of Robert Kennan came up, you brought us up And it was quite interesting that the women in particular were divided between those who kind of went Yeah, I don't care frankly. you know, he sounds a bit of an idiot, but but I just don't give enough of a dam And the women who said actually it's setting a really horrible example for our young and for women who want to go into public service and for anyone who thinks that that's fine. But it sort of came ended up coming back down to Farage and why he hadn't sort of slapped and down enough. I'm from a generation where Men may make comments like that. women gave as good as they got, you know, they just batted it back really And I just think it's No, I don't know how long ago we made these comments, but There historical, I think, some of them. I And I don't it doesn't matter to me, to be honest. You've had people on Facebook patronizing me saying, you know, you're a woman and you feel like that, but It's personal, isn't it? I do get that you don't want to be no one probably wants to be judged by the worst thing they've said when they've had a pine, which is probably what he's had when he's made some of them. I don't like the way that it's been handled. My concern is for me, if he would have come out and said I made those really stupid comments. I didn't actually know any better when I made a lot of those comments. some of the most recent ones were two years ago. so that is a bit typical, but you can still change in two years and you've come out and said I am committed to doing better now, although I obviously didn't intend to cause offence. I am sorry to those who I've offended and I am committed to Pitive language, I would not say anything like that and I do not want to encourage young boys to Iitate that language. What I'm worried about is what message are we sending to our young people when we're saying, o that's just how normal bus in the are you speak. And it's not really a generational thing from Rob. He's like literally, I think he's three years older than me. We went to the same high school. We've got very, very similar upbringing like Like we werere very very like much lives intertwined. We've chosen different career paths, but Aside from that, like we're both ordinary people in the wigan area. My brother was my dad, well my dad's actually come from S. Helenens as well, but they wouldn't speak like that and like I don't want my sons to speak like that. Iree Exactly. I thought that was what was really interesting I say, you know, you know from some of the women, there was sympathy in a sense that you know women can give as good as they get as well, But where they seemed to be united as a group almost united was this sense of why hasn't he apologized? Why did Nigel Frage come out and double down on it It makes me think. I think every time reform go wrong or where they make a mistake, where they fall out of line with public opinion is when they confuse the UK with the US And I think that what Farage was trying do was that kind of Tumpian, actuallyually if you apologize, you're losing, never apologize move forward That works in the US actually. Britain or fair minded on this stuff. If you say, look, you know, I said some stupid things, I'm really sorry, I shouldn't have done that. That still works, Absolutely in the UK. mostost people don. But the lack of apology was what seemed to frustrate people more. I also thought it was interesting that Bigger criticism of Robert Kenyon was just people didn't think he was up to it They'd seen him on question time. they worried that you know he wasn't able to articulate himself in a way that they wanted from their representative. We've sort of got ourselves in a knot because you know you hear that conversation the whole time about how we need real people in politics and we don't with professional politicians And we want anyone to be able to step up and then of course, It is probably harder than And we really li likeed to sur it Yeah, absolutely. and a sense and I think it I think sometimes people in Westminster Certainly based on what we've heard up here in Ashton and other areas in Makerfield is, I think they misread it. It's not that people want people who you know are totally sort of unqualified. It's that they want people are in touch. and it's interesting that hearing what they said about Andy Burnham, somehow he manages to get be in that sweet spot between polished and impressive enough that people think he's up to the job, but also we kept on hearing We kept on hearing relatable. We kept oning, you know, weaken to his core. you know They knew what school his kids had been to, they knew exactly where he lived. So there's something in it, I think there's been a bit of a misdiagnosis in some of the commentary about what people want from their politicians. and it's not quite as simple as someone who's never done politics before. So I'm trying to think if I heard anything in the hour and a half was spepecifically negative to Burnham And you raise the fact that people worry about Makerfield getting left out, or they worry that it's a stepping stone something more, or they worry that he's been out of politics for a while and he hasn't got his sort of mojo back in Westminster. But I don't think we heard anything today, which was a specific criticism of him himself, did we Not really, not notot in my group John didn't like his buses or the abortive clean air zone. as they you know Mike was a bit worried about the veterans pce, but not there wasn't really that thing. It was the central question of this by election hasn't changed in a month, which is four people here Will we be better or worse off with Andy Burnham as MP and prrime Minister? And some people think they'll be better off, someome people think they'll be worse off. And ultimately, that is going to be the decisive question. Reform haven't been able to land a knockout blow. I think it's arguable this is the second by election in a row where their candidate has held them A little bit and we heard someone else say that, you know, they wished that reformer Karen said they should have pick Yusuf U as the candidate, someone like that. Now look, you might still win. polling shows the race is tight, there are still lots of undecided and there were undecided. and quite a few Kby fans in the room. When her name came up. Itelt like sort of bubble of the chair all night and friends, you know of my age group and everything absolutely love it because She she's been compared with that my friends comparered it is so Margaret Thatcher with Yuma She u she's she's growing into her own as well. It was and again That has to been pretty common in In whatacy not just in Makerfield, but around the country this sense of we like Kemmy Bejenock, Pauline described as Margaret's with humour And yet in the same breath, they say, but you know, we're not very conservative. It's a sort of it's almost like what people used to say about Nick Cleig and Charles Kennedy, right in the twenty tents really like the leader, but there's no point in voting for the party. Last question, when you've I mean you've been here a few times now. I you' using plenty of sort of journalist us around. Have you seen a lot of have the cabinet come up here? have you seen Labour how do they play this? If you're a labour MP, do you do you campaign for Burnham or is that seen as aith I think a lot of the cabinet have been up here making visits. In fact last time I was getting the train down, Pat McFadd and I had to do a limbo on the train from Wigon Northwestern back to Eouston in the aisles. So people are up here, you know you've obviously got the board that you have to sign when you come up to say You've been up, I think there are lots of Labour and pe keen to have their name on that board. But even today when my colleague was getting off the train, I think Swella Braaman was there as well. So you know it almost is like the whole of Westminster has descended on Makerfield. It's like we've adopted the EU's Strasbourg Parliament system kind of by default where, you know, you spend most of your time in one place and then you go up to another for the thing. But but yeah, it's clearly become, you know, it has become as people said, the epicenter of the universe.. Thank you. Thank you. Granger knows when you're a procurement manager for an office park, you're not managing one building. You're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners. Lights about to fail, filters ready to clog, HVack on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind Count on Granger for quality products, easy reordering, and twenty four seven support Call one eight hundred Granger, click Ganger d. com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done Things are feeling a little less human these days, aren't they But isn't the whole point of progress to make things more human? That's why, at TD, when we design a product, whether it's getting you paid early or making debit card replacement easy, we ask one simple question. How does this help people That's how we're making banking more simple, more seamless, and more intuitive. But most importantly, that's how TD is making banking more human