Starmer's Future and Final Acts

Granger knows when you're a procurement manager for an office park You're not managing one building, you're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners Light's about to fail, filters ready to clog, HVac on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind Count on Granger for quality products, easy reordering, and twenty four seven support Call one eight hundred Granger, click Ganger d. com or just stop by Granger. For the ones who get it done. This is a global production. There is something quite sort of Shakespearan about this, isn't there? In that speech, exactly the reason why he has been a failous prrime Minister. It now is another prime Mister who has come to power by a general election but left via a coup. It is the world's most painful popularity contest. He never established any emotional connection with He was simply a vessel to remove the tourist. Where is the power? Who are we looking at? We look at you? We look at him, who's in control? The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question And I accept that answer with good grace Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love first That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour Party. Kir Stahmer becoming the sixth PM to resign from office in the last ten years. And as he did so He grappled with a question, staring him in the face Why has his own party turnurned, it's back on him. and turned against him viciously, so that it is now almost inevitable Andy Burnham becomes the next prime Mister of this country Is Andy Burnham ready Is the country ready? Welcome to the News agents. News agents. It's John. It's Mateless. It's Lewis. It is less than two years since Kir Starmer won a landslide general election less than two years since he said that politics trade less heavily on people's lives and that stability be returning. And here we are The left turn out again in Downing Street Kir Starmer announcing his resignation. pushed from office his backbenchers, his own cabinet realizing deciding that he was not up to the job to face the populist surge from the right of reform and they wanted someone else to take over. This used to feel special you know, When one Prime mininister gave way to another, it used to feel like a moment.f course this still does feel like a moment, but not but even our pretty short history on this show I was counting that we've done this four times now. We'veen this is the fourth prrime Minister we've seen appear before the electorn. This is where I say correlation nlation. I don't think it's our fault or it's anything to do with that to be absolutely clear. Just to be clear, the news agents isn't yet four years old. Indeed so. So we're getting through them at a hell of a pace. and we can talk about the bigger structural things, maybe, because I think a lot of people want to see those addressed and are wondering why it is that we're going through primises at such a pace now. But obviously just for the moment, this was Kest Stara's moment. And obviously this followed A weekend where Star was holed up at Checkers with his family, with his wife Victoria, with his remaining loyalists Having a debate, I'm told a serious debate, this wasn't sort of done and dusted until quite late on about whether or not he should fight And Starmer's instinct to get I'm told and I and this is well documented for much of this period was to fight when he's been saying over the last couple of weeks as late as Friday morning after that make a field result, that he would fight come what may. wasn he wasn't lying. That was a real open possibility and it was his intention. But over the course of the weekend, Following in particular on Friday afternoon. a series of what have been described as brutal. conversations with his cabinet colleagues, even some of those who are not necessarily friends or allies of Andy Burnham Cabinet mininister after cabinet minister basically telling him that the game was up, the support within the Parliamentary Labour Party had all but evaporated. and if he did choose to fight, which he could have done Andy Burnham would contest the leadership and he would almost certainly lose with the membership in what would be a bitter, protracted and acrimonious contest that would damage whatever is left of his legacy. And clearly That is something that in the end he's decided not to do But you could tell, I think in in his resignation statement, which you know, it had dignity to it, it had emotion to it, but it was also pretty tse And what I think it certainly lacked And what revealed is the extent to which I don't think Kir Starmer is sat in downowning Street today thinking that you know what I screwed up here or I've made a series of mistakes, I think what is clear from his language and his statement is that he blames the Labour Party. He blames and I think clearly Lows Andy Burnham very revealing that the two men have not spoken this weekend, quite extraordinary that they have not spoken with all these rumourors that they would try and hash out a deal or some sort of timetable, that has just not happened And so you've heard in Kir Starmera as you say, John, basically, his analysis of this is that the herd moved, there's been disloyalty showed to him. And I think what we can see from the reporting and the statement is that Kir Stahmer's analysis and belief is is that if all of this st dis loyalty occurred that he would still be in place and this is an entirely needless coup Look, there's a moment when you write a speech and the first version of it is the The fuck you speech, quite frankly, where you say what's really on your mind and what you really think and how hurt you feel and how humili aged you feel And then the good friends and hopefully spouses next to you say, yeep, you've got that off your chest Rrip that up, put it in a drawer and give the dignified speech that you will be happy with when it's replayed endlessly on a loop in the days, weeks, months and years to come. And so I think that's the version that you got from Kirst Starmmer today. I don't think he has let go of what he genuinely believes have been his achievements in office. It reminds me a little bit of that. Do you remember the whole debate about the gold dress and the blue dress, where you see very different things and the speech that Starmer wrote, was the gold dress, where he could list what he'd done to waiting lists, what he'd done to immigration, what he'd done to asylum hotels, what he'd done to relations with Europe, to relations arguably with America as well. And I think he does see these as actual tangible achievements lifting know half a million children out of poverty. He hails now as one of big achievements of his government, slightly skirting over the fact that obviously that wasn't what he was originally going to do, lifting the cap on the two child benefit, etceter. And that a lot of people will look at his list and say, you don't realize how close you've come to putting my business into a recession, how close you've come to making it impossible for me to hire new workers or impossible to vest But in a sense, what he is doing today is having to paint the best possible picture of the two years that he's been in office and to the point about his position changing. I mean, yeah, I think you're right L' fundamentally position only holds for as long as it can hold when everyone around you is telling you that the ground beneath your feet has gone. So on Saturday, night, Friday, Saturday, we were understanding that those conversations were going on And I think one by one the skittles were falling. And it sounds like when it got to you know, Evet Cooper, amongst others, his foreign secretary, he was saying, sorry, it's over now There were certain key people. Lord Fulkner, Charlie Falulkner was basically saying it's over, it's done very publicly. And I guess once you've had enough of those conversations Whatever you inwardly think, you can do, however strong the fight is in you to keep going If there's no army behind you, if there's no one backing you then there isn't There isn't a strategic or viable way forward. and I think it was Rachel Sylvester for the observer who went first Saturday night, wrote the piece that we all sort of know opened late on Pisco Ss down, to be honest, going That's it. He's going to resign on Monday and this is now over. And I think that is the point, right? that it wasn't that he was lying. It wasn't that he suddenly lost the stomach for it. It wasn't that he said one thing publicly and did another thing privately. just didn't find a way to do the thing that he wanted to do, which was stay in. Look, Lewis, you said a moment ago that the herd moved. The herd didn't move, the herd stampeded I mean, this was the Parliamentary Labour Party saying, K, you're not up to the job And I'm told that the cabinet were kind of almost ringing aroundound each other Yeah before they spoke to Stara so that there was a sort of agreed line among a sizable chunk Cabinet. on those Friday phone calls that took place And that even until last night those cabinet members didn't know what Kir Stamber was going to come out and say when he opened the door of Downing Street today, or whether indeed he was going to open the door of Downing Street today. They were still in the dark. They assumed because of the Rachel Sylvester story that in the observer that he would come out and announce his resignation, but no one knew for sure. And again, I think the fact that he came out On Friday morning I said I'm going fight on Okay, I understand you're trying to give yourself some breathing space. But again, it just shows his lack of political judgment. Why would you say that on Friday when it was so obvious Everything had changed overnight notot just by Andy Burnham's victory, but the scale of that victory which meant that labor MPs were thinking You know, our saavior is not the guy who's in Downing Street at the moment Our savior is the guy in Manchester who's coming down on the train as we speak now. I think that Kin Staler's resignation statement in its own way adverted to exactly the reason that he was leaving or the reason that he's lost support. Look, I think two things can be true at once, we always say, look, I can totally understand why Stahmer is really pissed off. I can totally understand why he must be furious. I can totally understand why he feels utterly grieved and angry at burn and and the rest of it. I can see in his head he' sat there thinking, hang on a minute. I won a huge majority in twenty twenty four. I won a majority Out of six hundred and fifty constituenies, we won over four hundred This guy out of nowhere, after I've put six years of hard bloody graffs sacrifed family time, I didn't have to do it his choice, but you know, sacrificed a lot because politicians do at that top level you know, is coming in after all of that and all that hard craft wins one constituency, albeit in spectacular fashion, no doubt U and it's taking my job Like what the hell? L I can totally and by the way, all these people who bat me like ten minutes ago, whereere are you? totally understand that and he wouldn't be the first prrime Mister to feel aggrieved or betrayed. And yet at the same time, yet and yet and yet We can see In that speech, exactly the reason why he has been a failure as prime Minister. I don't think he's been a failure as Labour leader. I think he's right to point to his record six years as leader of the Labour Party, actually the longest le serving leader of the Labour Party since Tony Blair did transform the party's fortunes. so he'll always get credit for that, picked up the pieces after the twenty nineteen election, put the party in a position where it could win again A lot of people would have won after the Tory impmlosion, but he did that. He'll always have that to his credit. But he has been pretty much a failure as Prime Minister I think historians will look back and marvel how it could be that a prrime minister with a majority of over one hundred and sixty could throw away and spend all of that political capital. In less than two years. In a weird way, I think of him as the kind of inverse Rissy Sunag S Nak's reputation, I think sort of will get better over time because people will conclude I think this is already happening. Look, this was a guy who was given a terrible hand and he played it probably just about as well as he could be he was playing basically with you know a pair of double twos You've got Starmer who is given a royal flush And somehow he managed. Yeah, there were loads of problems, somehow he managed to throw it all of the way. And I think a big part of the reason for that and of course there were big structural problems that any Pime Minister will have and Andy Burnham will have. But part of the reason for that, when I think of Kiistama, I think this is a man who really enjoyed being Prime Minister And he did enjoy politics. And I think those two things could only cohabit for so long ght Ultimately he had. And I remember the first interview I ever did with him when I was starting to ask him about where his politics was and at the start of his leadership campaign and which labour figures from history he most admired. And he sort of tutted at me and dismissed it and sort of said, Oh, these silly Westminster games, silly political games. I don't sit up in the morning at night and think about politicians from the past I admire or politics. He had, and I can totally understand that, and that's fair enough But he had a sort of abhorrence of politics or the game of politics. Sometimes he almost thought he was better than politics. and I think in the end, that lack of political ability, that abhorrence of politics, you know, in the end if you don't have much time for politics, politics won't have much time for you. And I think that that is the story of Kirama. This is a man who in lots of ways was competent at being prime Minister but was incompetent pursuit of politics in the end that did for him. I think it depends what you mean by politics because you know, weirdly he was savvy enough to see that if he let Andy Burnham stand in Gordon and Denton, I mean, remember Gordon and Denton four months ago, then this whole story could have been written much earlier. He was savvy enough to see. there is something quite sort of Shakespearan about this, isn't there? that we have known since at least last September, since at least the last Labour Py conference that Andy Berham was coming for him. And what we've essentially seen is sort of Stam are doing the blocks, you know, blocks at conference here, blocks at Gordon and Denton there. and this was the final one that didn't I'm sorry to go for one, but it reminded me of this do you remember the end of Henry of Richard II, where Richard's imprisoned in his cell. And the exiled Bolingbrooke, Henry Boolingbrooke, is marching from exile towards the throne and he basically sort of confronts him and that's the end of Richard, you know, Richard basically sits in prison saying, I have wasted time or has time wasted me. And I guess that is where we are. like all the things that Starmer is thinking that he could have done that he wanted to do, that he didn't get the chance to do because the inexorable burnham was on the march really Henry theV was a Lancastri, so that' suit burny. Comtely It completely works, you know. And And this idea that I think it's not the politics he's not good at. I would say It is the policy itself and I think I'm just going go out here because it's something that I've thought about for a long time and I feel a slight traitor to my sex in doing this. but so many of the really dreadful dreadful decisions from this whole government have come from the choices that Rachel Reeves has made. And for ages people were kind of calling her Rachel in accounts, and oo Rachel. and I found it very sexist and very classist and I really push back on it But I do think that Kir Stahmer didn't have an eye on what his own Chancellor was actually trying to do and I do think that's not just the original sin. so many of the problems stem from him appointing her to that role in the first place and not seeming to mind what she did. And I'll just give you one example. I talked to somebody over the weekend who's a chef, you know, works in hospitality And he just gave me the top lines. In the last year, they've gone from one hundred and twenty employers employees to ninety. Their profit has gone from twelve point five to five. The NIC contributions, the minimum wage, the business rate increases have demolished their margins. They're sitting on the edge of recession. And that's just one person who's I think speaking for many people in that same industry and saying This is not somebody who is a raving Tory or reform friendly, somebody saying I was totally backing this government to do great things for working people and they've stuffed it. But I don't want to be the coniliator here, but I think you and Lewis are saying exactly the same thing I't that is him being bad at politics. Yeah. That is him not taking an interest in what the hell was happening in the treasury, letting Rachel Reeves kind of you scrap the windter fuel allowance, causing massive unpopularity coming into an election saying we've got to have growth in our economy and then putting up employers' national insurance by two pence and giving workers rights from day one, which again puts costs on employers and makes them less willing employ people. Those are things that if you were a politically agile ime Minister and you it says on the letter box, you're the first Lord of the treasury. These are things that you would say whooa Hang on, you can't be doing that. I mean he'll throw back. We've improved workers' rights. We've made their you know tenants rights, we've done loads of stuff for But I think it was I think it was the He abdicated responsibility for so much politics and was very bad at people management. You know, I was speaking to someone over the weekend, very senior in the government talking about My problems aren't ideological My problems are that it was just so everything was so badly managed. There was you bringing people in, building alliances, working out how we sell a story or sell a message. Who do we need to get on board? How quickly can we get them on board? You Just the tight decisions, the tight judgments, and Kir Stara wouldn't make those judgments I think it's very easy to go down a narrative and you know, look, people are right to point out seventh Prime Minister in a decade And I think there is something, know maybe in the periphery about governability, maybe Brexit, whatever it happens to be. Well look, we are literally on the custp I know of the tenth anniversary of Brexit Brexit Eve. And so it would be very tempting to say it's all because you know the uncertainty caused by Brexit. I think there are particular circumstances about Kir Starmer And the way that he ran the cabinet and the way that he ran politics and the way that he did politics, which was not to do politics, is what has cost him hisis premiership right now I don't I think that he is the author of this, I'm afraid, which is a harsh judgment because there are a lot of decent qualities about him, and I think that he's right to say, lookook Look at waiting lists, lookook at some of the achievements we've had But I just think that the You just look at public opinion. It is it seems to me totally disproportionate the amount of hatred there is for Kir Stama, given that he's quite a mild mannered so I think that's Jong because he never ever established prerecisely because of his lack of political skill, he never established any emotional connection with the public on any level. He was simply and I think again, he didn't He didn't he and his team, I don't think, paid enough attention to this fact. They just talked about the size and the majoracy. He was simply a vessel to remove the toys. That's what it was And from that did not build a successful political programe, cognizant of the fact that the support for him was skinnyep. Look, I think that of course there will be achievements. I think that he certainly, in terms of foreign affairs, we've discuss this many times, restored a certain dignity to Britain on the world stage. You've got to give him some credit for that after years of not just sort of tumult, but frankly Yobbery from conservative prime ministers, you know, just for the sake of it, just how many good get to hate us. Yeah again a good headline, you know, the Mill Wall approach, you know, it is pathetic. and Starmmer to his credit had none of that and he definitely restored certain respect. And in fairness, you've seen that in terms of the tributes that have been Cing from comoming for him from v V Lin, the president the UU commission, PresidentZelensky All of them. and I don't think it's just the normal bomides to be fair, I think they feel it But domestically speaking I think that Kissed Armour's fundamental problem Everything always went back to this was a profound lack of intellectual curiosity about politics and sense of what he wanted to do. Even his speech betrayed that. H speech today which you know, I'm not expecting him to self lagellate. you know, ultimately they've all come for him. He doesn't need to sit there and sort of you know attack himself endlessly. but normally when Pime mininisters go, they at least offer a little bit of contrition and sense of where their own deerits and faults might have led to the moment that we're in a little bit of frankly guidance for the country as to why the hell I'm resigning. Kirstarers went as far as to say My party no longer wants me Why care Why do they no longer want you? It hasn't come from nowhere. In fact, most Labour MPs would dearly like not to have been in this position. Yeah, Burnham has been gunning you for your job from day one But most of them your median labour MP wasn't there. Why have they become there? Because they have become convinced that you are incapable intellectually politically, of answering the essay question that you yourself set at the Labour Party conference in September October. Wh is best placed to beat reform? You set that essay question, another strategic mistake, which Burnham has answered for you. and I'll just say this finally. I think ultimately, So and this is where I do think a little bit of seingness really sort of kicks in which is that I think Not only it was Stara uniquely intellectually incurious about politics. He had no sense of what his growth plan would be, he had no sense or theory of change of the state or the economy. and fundamentally he always thought he didn't need one Because his basic analysis, I've said this on the show before, but I do think it's fundamental. hisis basic analysis was that the Tories were feckless, reckless and useless, and he kissed armour being competent and efficient and managerial and better than them frankly, would fix our problems. Now, they were all of those things, but the extent of the Maes in British politics was that that was a necessary condition to fix British politics, but it was not a sufficient condition. He had to have a program of his own and a political programme of his own. And not only did he not have one, I don't think he ever really wanted one Yeah. I think it's hard to argue that there wasn't a clear vision, but there is one thing I'd say and it's this. I do think it takes real bravery to go into public political life for sure. And I don't think we should forget that. We don't always get the person we voted for. You might not like what they do in power. But genuinely, it is the world's most painful popularity contest where people tell you daily and unambiguously how much they hate you Every time the response to You know a good person going into politics and sort of ending up humiliated I do think the knock on effect will be people just looking round and going Not me, not for me, not doing that. do not want to do that and there are mistakes made and The trouble with being a prime mininister is you don't get to practice, not really. You hit the ground and you have to know what you're doing. And I agree with you, Lewis, that there was not enough preparation that went into that But I just really worry that people are looking at this now. I mean, my son got texted by a sort of friend of his overseas who said, is it now illegal to complete your full term in office in the UK? right? This is the sort What we're projecting out onto the world that nobody stays in their job and we do not give anyone time and two years is basically you know you're done or you're out. And I do sort of think that demanding so much of these public figures if we just mince them up. we just mince them up having sort of, you know brought them to a place where we're saying, We think you can do this. We've all decided you can do this. Oh no, fuck off, you can't. So politics has always been a brutal contact sport I think what may have changed is It' the speed with which the sport happens. you know It's like a boxing match which was fought over fif r It's now right. smmash bang wallop in the first round. if you're not standing, you're out. And I think that has changed. The speed, the patience, the tolerance of, you know have we got time? I mean, Kia Stammer did come to office saying, look, some of this is going to take two terms And we're going to need a long time to change this around and we can ten years. Yeah ten years He wanted. And you know, and unfortunately and this is happened in a weekend. And this has happened Fridays weekend where people just the cabinet said to him, enough is enough. And so I think there's an element of that in it about people going to public life. I also think to your point, Emily, about who'd want to do it? I mean I do if you if you haven't Andy Burn, but if you haven't seen it Look at the picture, the face of Victoria, his wife on the steps of Downing Street after he's made his statement, they have a hug And they go onto the step of Downing Street to face the cameras and her face looks like thunder. Of course. And we know his kids didn't want it. You know his daught I think it's no secret now, his kids were really nervous about him becoming prime Mister. His son really didn't want him to bring in the social media. I mean, maybe he's happy because the social media ban doesn't get it done now The impact on all your family, the humiliation of seeing your spouse basically picked up, squeezed and thrown out is impossible to get to grips with, I think. But to the question that the mate of your son asked about politics, you know It now is another prrime Minister who has come to power by a general election but left via a coup And it is you know nineteen seventy to seventy four, Edward Heath, the last time a prime minister won an election and came to power via that and lost power by losing an election over half a century. since a prime Minister in a way that sort of shows. in a way that sort shows it's not unusual I mean, our system is That is the most incredible It is the norm, but it's become even more the case and more exaggerated. that we now have who as a way of becoming Prime Minister or coup as a way of losing power And not because of the people's vote at the ballot box. And so we're now going to be in a position where Andy Burnham from some market town in the northwest of England and that is not to demean Makerfield, but is, you know it's is demaning little bit There ist a market town called Makerfield as it happens. Exactly. Ashon upon Makerfield or whatever it is. and he is going to become the next primeister. D don't need to get it right anymore, John. We've moved on now. I know, I know but what does it say about our democracy that we have chosen, in effect, our next prime Mister and he has not yet even been sworn in as an MP as we sit here and record this at ten to one. Well, we should talk a little bit about the future and what the timetable is going to be for this transition that is coming up right after this Granger knows, when you're a procurement manager for an office park You're not managing one building, you're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners Light's about to fail, filters ready to clog, HVac on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind Count on Granger for quality products, easy reordering, and twenty four seven support Call one eight hundred Granger, click Granger. com or just stop by Granger. For the ones who get it done. The wait is over. Live table games have arrived in New York City. Experienceced Blackjack Bakara. Craps in Roulette twenty four seven only at Resorts Wor, New York City. Gambling problem callall eight seven seven eight Hopeen Y or teeax Hopeen Y four six seven, three six nine. M must be twenty one or older to gamble. St standard misageres supply. M youew your recck in Prime Mister, July alling then people make it build is the most important thing. intention to stand today. I'm going to hold the platon. Any message for the regent? S it down to London? Iose. So Henry Boningbrooke never had to contend with of anti trains famously. Andy Burnham is leaving Manchester, Piccadilly, I think the station there with quite a throng around him. And it is an extraordinary moment because he's just you he's not even an MP yet. He has not even been sworn in. He's in his t shirt Black t shirt, sort of the uniform, the Mancunian uniform and jeans. Banam Normcore. Yeah. and he's about to get on a train. to arrive into totally expectant Parliament And he will be sworn at two hundred thirty. and I guess there is some U sense that when Kistarma took to the lecttern at nine thirty this morning, it was precisely to avoid there being this overlap of, you know, whereere is the power? Who are we looking at? We look at you? we look at him, who's in control So Starmer had his his Time in Downing Street first thing this morning. Burnham will be sworn in at two thirty this afternoon We don't know if we'll expect Starmer to be in the comments for that, will we? I mean we will may be extraordinary an execution. So I have to say, when we were talking about this over the weekend, we did imagine a contest which opened on Tuesday frankly and was sort of all done and dusted a week later by the ninth The way Starmer has set it out is slightly longer, which is it opens on the ninth, in other words, a sort of What is that? a week tomorrow? and It is finalised by the sixteenth of july. So Unless it's a contest and it'll run until September. Exactly. Now, we know that W streeting has in the last couple of hours, pulled away from his own bid to be leader we can debate whether that means He didn't get the numbers or he did get a deal a big sort of offer of a sort of big state of office job And we are waiting to see if anyone else will come forward. But if no one does probably would bet money on that as we speak Th Andy Burnham. go from being an MP today to being a PM A week on Wednesday. I mean, look, this is, as you've already said John, we've never seen anything like this before. We've never seen we really feel like we've moved on to Makerford, but we've never We' have seen an MP or someone become an MP literally on the Thursday and basically become the de facto Prime Minister. by the Monday I mean, Starmer clearly, I think by all accounts wanted to actually the reason he's done it today is because he didn't want the sense that The humiliation, frankly, it is humiliating enough of Burnham kind of getting the train and kind of chasing him out of town. That's basically the impression that would be give him coming for his job, launching all of that I think now that streeting I mean and streeting, as you say, Emily, I mean he, despite the fact, of course, I mean, only a few weeks ago he's on this very show telling us that He would one hundred percent come what may fight any contest within I think about twenty minutes of the starmer statement coming to an end, he tweeted Bonam. had basically he'd been in discussions with Burnham over the course of the weekend and he was sure that the sort of ideas that he had been articulating and he had been talking about would have a place in the new government so he would not be contesting because it would be a waste of time. Thereby shutting down The most likely route, I'm still not convittced at all that Sting had the numbers, but if he did thereby shutting down the most likely route for a contest. I was talking to someone well pased to know and I sort of said, you know is there anybody that you could think of who in this circumstance now could get the eight eighty one that you need? They said the chances are absolutely nil and therefore and it is hard to imagine who that would be. Therefore Burnham It has set course to become Prime Minister quite quickly. Now, he actually wanted Team Burnham, although neither he nor Starmer had actually spoken, so there was no way they could affect this. But all of the briefing at the weekend was that Burnham wanted to actually have a longer transition for September without a contest to give him time to prepare for office. Now Starmer clearly has decided I'm having none of that, that I'm not just going to stick around like a sort of wax mannequin in Downing Street, being a kill of caretaker, prime minister waiting for you to get your ducks in right So Stalmer's sort of last acts or minor act of vengeance against Burnham has been to puncture that possibility of giving him a longer transition. My view actually is now as you say, Emily, that if there is no contest, even this sort of three week period feels a very long transition to me and it's potentially a bit dangerous for Burnham Because what happens now, let's assume within the next few days it becomes categorically clear that there's not going to be a contest. Where does the media pack run to? Well, there's going to be a vacuum And it's not going to be starmer stories anymore, and it's not going to be starmer leadership stories anymore. And it's not going to be contest stories anymore. It's going to be whoo the hell is Andy Burnham? What the hell does he plan to do? What do you think about X? And what do you plan to do about X, Y and Z? And this time, he can't hide behind Makerfield. He can't say, lookook, I'm focusing on Makerfield. I'm focusing on this by election. He will be the day factor Joh's favorite market. Primeister indeed his favorite marketer The de facto Prime Minis And I don't know, I think and without if he was moving into number ten straight away, you would have the momentum of that and that would carry him forward and have announcements and the excitement. But you know, as we all know, the media repores a vacuum and if there's a vacuum over the next three weeks where he's not really in a position to command the story, but is still a de facto primers, I know that's quite dangerous for him. So I think if it becomes clear there's no contest I'd be quite tempted to be pressuring the NEC and Stalman to say, you know what? let's just bring it forward I mean, ye it would be a very interesting thing for them to do. I do think that It's interesting what's happened with West Streeting because is this a sign of whereest streeting strength or weakness that he has come out and said what he has said. Is it because he has been offered a great office of state like the Treasury Or is it because actually he didn't have many cards to play and that Andy Bernon probably knew he didn't have many cards to play and therefore it's whereays playing nice because probably thats he has no other option. I that's been promised Yeah, that someone told me it felt very unlikely he's been promised anything because he doesn't have the numbers. And so you know what is I guess we'll see when the jobs get done. Yeah. Is it Chancellor or is it Lord Privy Seal? Yeah we'll see. We'll see, exxactly. think I think it's exactly the latter And I think that Wes pissed off an awful lot of his colleagues actuallyually when he did the interview with you, Lewis and talked so openly about what was happening in Cabinet and you know, although it was accurate, people felt it was premature to be doing that and would s further division Soandy Burnham to work out What is he wants to do? I was with somebody at the weekend who was you know, used to be very senior in the treasury saying it's very good. the sort of stuff that he is doing now like he's talking to Richard Hughes, who was the former head of the OBR And you know, and there is somebody who's a proper grown up and knows about the economy. and will Andy Bernerman, I think this is a really interesting question feel constrained bound By the election manifesto of twenty twenty four, Or does he feel he can say, you know what? I didn't stand on that manifest tho. I'm now the prime Minister. The triple lock, that costs huge amounts of money would send a brilliant sign to the markets that we're prepared to do not have such this costly policy around on it. I'm going to scrap the triple lock. Which a lot of people are advising him to. He's got Jim'eill, the ex Gelmans banker in his ear. And the one word that you keep on hearing is be brave Andy Burnham is the answer to kiss armor, then presumably his policies have to be the answer to incrementalism. In other words, he has to come in and do something. And as you say, I think there have been voice in his ear saying the tririple Lock would send out a signal straight away A it saves you fifteen billion dollars straight up, right? That's the kind of money that would actually be quite useful for a budget, for example B, because it signals that you have gone somewhere that is meant to be a sort of tootemic sacred cow And see, because you actually make every young person in this country And it doesn't have to be that young. They could be sort of in their forties go, o right, it's not just about, you know honestly I think that the chances of touching the triple knock is zero. I mean, I think that they will look at what happened with Winster fuel which was taking three hundred quid away from some of the richest pensioners in the country and the political backlash that generated. I mean, if you're talking about the triple lock, which You know, the state pension in Britain is relatively not that generous by comparison to the European countries, but certainly tririple Lock has proven expensive. and you start with that. I would be abol. But the weird thing about the winter fuel was actually, I mean, most people in retrospect think it was not a stupid thing to look at. They just think it was mishandled whichich comes down to the whole question. and we heard this in the fooccus group, I think I mentioned it last week, I remember one guy saying, it's not that I need a personality, but I need a communicator. Between Reeves and Starmer, they never had anyone who could tell a story or could explain their policies I think the winter fuel came out of nowhere and it as it turns out, disappeared back into nowhere. So all the people saying it was a terrible policy were the same people who then said, Oh but they should have stuck with it. What you've got to do is explain why you're doing something, do it, make the case for it, and explain where that money can then go. That's the story that you tell when you come into office, that was I wonder what Andy Burnham does How mean, Louis to your question What's he going to do over the next three weeks? There are so many big issues. I mean you look at some of the briefing that was taking place over the weekend about Ed Milliban O the suggestion being that he might be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer And you have the markets And the CEO saying, Ohh my God, no, you know, remember that whole predator producer stuff from when he was the labour leader. And then you have the unions GMB and Unite say I God. No, you can't make him Chancellor. Can you see E Milibander' Chancellor? I think I think not not I think with the internal opposition now from GMB and Unite, I think it would be very difficult. But I also think it has to be somebody that Andy Burnham can basically hand over the numbers to but not feel that they he's in constant opposition to.. So I think I mean, the West Streeting Berham presumably sets up a kind of personality clash because you don't want somebody who want to take the jobash as. Right I mean, that's what I mean. Political personality. You've got two pretty bright lights there, both trying to shine. I wonder if it's a sort of Heay character, which would make a lot of sense. You know, John Heeeley steps back from defense you know, We can't get the money for that, but actually it seemed to be pretty loyal, it seem to go back into locks set behind a leader. I mean, that's not a stupid idea. But I mean we're putting all these names to things. What we don't know is where Andy Burnham stands on any of these big policy questions, whichich are the central ones about where does he stand on net zero? Where does he stand on increasing defence spending What does he want to do about you the debt levels in this country and where does he want to raise money from? Until before we get on to foreign. Yeah' before you get onto How do you deal with Ukraine? How do you deal with NATO? How do you deal with EU? Cct NATO' sumit two weeks time. I think Berm, I think what we will likely see at least in the short term And it may well be that he can't resist it in the endlike Starmer because the world's on fire. But I think in the short term, we're likely to see Berham being far more domestically focused than Stw. So I think his choice of foreign secretary will end up being quite important because they'll probably end up being more prominent than perhaps Starmmer's ones. Who knows, mayaybe he'll keep it Vet Cuper in place although that's said. I don't think theyr you send Wes to foreign and get them on a plane as possibly as you want. Possibly, possibly But I mean, there's look, there' there's There is no end of jobs that Barn andes to people More than West treeting. You know, there's a lot of people who've been helping him in his campaign from his inside the parliamentary loady and outside. people like Lou Haagig, for example, Anise Midgeley, people who have been absolutely central to his campaign. I would bet on Josh Simons coming back as Chief of staff. number ten Yeah I mean policy. We should say that. We should say I mean, like whatever we think about it, and I think there are potential long term cost of burners I sort of use this word advisely, The heist that has been pulled by Josh Simmons and Burnham It's something to behold. I mean, talk about fortune favouring the brave. I mean, this was a guy Burnham who was basically after Labour Party conference completely written off after a series of missteps He's then blocked from standing for Gaotland Denton by Star and again, everyone's just like How the hell he keeps trying to get back into parliament, It doesn't work. And then through seizing the political moment and through sheer political force frankly forces the Prime Minister to exceed has a resignation, an unnecessary resignation by election. He pays no political price for it, which lots of people thought that he would. Lots of people thought that the people of Makerfield would say this was game playing and whatever, runs a cracking campaign U basically forces the Prime Minister who is the leader of the Labour Party to send resources, his own cabinet ministers, his own MPs to oversee a contest and take part in a contest which will remove the Pime Mister from his own job And does it in such a way that he wins on Thursday in the Pimeinister out by Monday You know, whether you like it or don't like it, it is an extraordinary act of politics. And the one thing I'll say is is extraordinary now There is a danger if things don't go well though. that it does leave a bit of poison in the Labour bloodstream. because believe me, there are people in the Labour Party right now, staraites, they still exist. they're still there. They're bruised today and batts today, but they'll still be there in the years ahead. They ow nothing to Burn. They feel they owe nothing to Burnham because Burnham, they will say that we owe the same sort of loyalty that Andy Burnham and his people show to us. So if things don't go well, let's not forget that Burnham does not have even the legitimacy that Starmer has of running of having his own mandate and winning a general election. In fact, he wasn't even an MP for that general election. So things could poison quite quickly if things start to fall apart. Add to that the fact that he's already slagged off the last forty years. So that includes pretty much The whole of the legacy, The whole of the Bown legacy. Brown legacy, the whole of sort of Ed Miliband trying to win it from opposition as well. The one thing I'd say is that we're always told that local elections are about local issues. You know when you're covering for the BBC, when you're coveringc local elections, remember it's about potholes and bins. Rember. And to some extent that has to be you know the way in which you approach these things. But I would say the local elections twenty twenty six were weirdly the closest we will get to a general election in those terms, because that's the data That's where Andy Burnham's looking and it actually reminded me more Tresa May in twenty seventeen Do you remember she was still just about in control of the party, but not really That was what did for her. The fact that she lost Her majority in twenty seventeen put her into the same place that Kir Starmer was, I think in twenty twenty six. He was in charge, he was the PM Basically The election results had said already it was game over. So I do think that's the only bit that I would say from your analogy that we've sort of skipped over Data was what gave Burnham the impetus to say, there's nothing left here. There's no one, There's no place in the country. You know, to your original question, whereere would you go to celebrate today, Kir Starmer? Where would you go? There was no place in the country that felt like a Starmer stronghold. And at that point, I guess, he was kind of walking into it And I think there are two things we sort of danced around it, but in terms of kind of like The reason anyone sat here today might be wondering, look this is now my fourth news agent episode with a PM resignation or the seventh or will have the seventh PM in ten years. There are other reasons for that. You're right, I mean, I think Brexit obviously destabilize our politics, particularly for the tory years. I think the reason the structure of things at StarMmer, I think has been unable to deal with politically and by the way, the Burnham is now going to have to deal with politically, they're going to be exactly the same is that I think that, you know, I think Starmer would still be there and this goes to your point about the locals. Starmer, I think would probably still be there if we were still in an era of two and a half party politics and reform Barbarians as they would see it weren't banging at the gates. You know, if this was just a touries doing well and you know, it was a more traditional thing I think labour would be to say it's the midterermms. Yeah, Labour would be less spooked and they'd be less worried Be it's reform and because we've got this fragmented politics. you know, like if you think back to Harriet Harm was saying this on my Sunday show yesterday know she was saying that look, the new Labour government, for example, they made tons of mistakes. tons of mistakes. they're all completely forgotten now. manyany of which would only be on the sort of the same level as some of the mistakes that Starmer has made But what they did what they had what they had to in their favor. was a defeated opposition Ii. e, their main opposition Tories had recently been ejected from office, and this is true of all Other governments we've had recently with an opposition party that had recently been defeated. And therefore, they weren't legitimate. You know there was nowhere else to go. They were vanquished Star has had to deal with had to deal with is an unvanquished opposition I. e reform who are there as a natural alternative, they haven't been in office recently. And that has been something new for Starmer to deal with and something he has proven unable to deal with, despite the fact that he himself said, as I said, that that was the sort of essay question of politics right now. And I think the other structural thing and Starmer Berham will definitely have to deal with this You talk about Brexit destabilizing our politics, and I think that's true. I think COVID has destabilized our politics profoundly. in the sense that Not enough politicians talk about this. What is one of the reasons why this government has struggled, particularly in the face of the bond markets, is because we're so indebted. And one of the reasons we're so indebted. Yes, some of it is a financial crisis, some of it is Brexit, a lot of it is COVID. And what would a normal labour government probably have done if it started to get into trouble a little bit? It would have turned the spending taps on. Now I think Reeves and Stahmer kind of did that probably more or less to the maximum extent that they could But they couldn't go much further, and they have not been willing, and many British politicians aren't willing to sort of turn around and go, you know, one of the reasons we're in trouble right now or we can't get the public services in a better condition right now, is because the state paid your wages for the best part of two years. And that has left us with a big debt backlog to try and overcome. And guess what? Burnham is going to be in exactly that position as well. And it's difficult for a social Democratic partarty I think they're going to have to redesign the Senatf for Rembrance Sunday now because you have all the ex prime ministers lined up at the Excel Centre, don't we? Yeah, we need the Excel Centre for all the ex prrime ministers that will be lined up there. I think we've now got nine living ex prrime M ministers. And there'll be a tenth who will be the serving Prime Minister, presumably Andy Jer as well. I know should. Soon actually' to be there in the twenty. We' just start roting them again now We'll be back in just a moment When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant, you keep production lines moving and quality on track because there is no room for slowdowns. With Granger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts, and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place so nothing gets in the way of getting the job done Call one eight hundred ranger, click ranger. com or just stop by. Ranger. for the ones who get it done Test july fourth at Lowe's get up to forty five percent off select major appliances. Plus, save eighty dollars on a select Charboyal Performance sereries gas Grill. Now two hundred ninety nine doll. Our best lineup is here at Lowe's Hellos, We help you save Valid through seven A, while supplies last, selection varies by location. Silosot com for more details Visit your nearby Lowes on Tonenell Avenue in North Bergen So before we go What does my local MP do next and my local MP being one Seriiaama because I mean, yeah, he could do Theresa May thing and the Rishi Sunak thing and stay in Parliament until the next general election and decide what he's going to do then or He could do the David Cameron, Tony Blair thing and just say, you know what guys, I've had enough of this. And that would be a b election that Labour would absolutely hate to have to fight in Camden. because The Green Party are strong and doing pretty well there. Well, I mean, if he wants one fininal fuck you to Andy Burnham. This would be it this would be it because he would as you say, John, he would set up very early in the Burnham preremiership. He would set up a by election in Hobann and Stain. Pancras. Look, it's a Rxfid labor seat. should be on paper, but Zapelansky has talked in the past about standing against Kizdama in Huburn and St. Pancras, given their local election performance in the Borough of Camden, they would fancy their chances. and it would be an early test case of whether and the Burnham led Labour government. could do the same thing Andy Burnham in the Great Market town of Makerfield. hasas done which is able to cororral and bring together