Brexit Reflections and Closing Remarks

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I do have concerns about the memorandum of understanding now that we see it and the terms about what's in it and also what's not in it suggests to me that it does smack of the kind of appeasement that our administration rejected, but my message is don't We have defeated their military, donon't suddenly come in massive buckets of cash to let them rebuild and become a threat to America again You know, we criticize Obama for sending planainfulull of one hundred fifty billion dollars in cash. I'm hearing a three hundred billion dollars number. That's concerning to me. And the batting order of voices you heard there was forer vice president to Donald Trump, Mike Pence, ally of Donald Trump Ted Cruz, and Republican Senator Tom Tillis, not exactly giving a big thumbs up Donald Trump's memorandum of undernderstanding to end the war in Iran. Yeah, when your friends are calling it the worst foreign policy blunder in decades Imagine what your critics are saying Welcome to the news agents News agents. It's John. It's Maateless. And last night in the setting of the Palace of Versailles A sort of treaty was signed because let's face it, Versailles has such a great record of signing peace treaties that go really, really well in the long term. Maybe they should have done it somewhere else. A cafe down the road or a little brassery would have been far better than being actually in Versailles to sign this memorandum of understanding. But that is what happened and European leaders who were there applauded becausecause that's what they do And realistically, what they have come out with is next to nothing What's going to happen is that for the next sixty days the Strait of Hormuz will be open Well it was opened before the war started and that Iran is going to get sanctions lifted against it So who's one There is only one winner in this It's around. Yeah, a little later in the podcast, you're going to hear from Poland's Deputy Prime Minister Radik Zakkorssky, who was asked directly from John why all the G seven leaders have to sit there clapping and applauding at something that they know is proably false. The reaction is quite interesting. I guess it takes us to the very heart of how Europe has to deal with Trump even when The reality is staring us in the face, but I think it is worth going through some of the reality that we now know from What is not actually a peace deal on paper, but a memorandum of understanding. The conflict was a hundred and ten days and the acccord got fourteen points and it is worth going through some of those bit by bit because you'll remember, for example How strongly Trump advocated maximum pressure on Iran when it came to sanctions. He really talked about the cost to Iran of the U. S. Naval blockade. and now it turns out that America is going to actually pay For the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, they are restoring the pre war status quo, but they will also release what amounts to tens of billions of dollars of Iranian foreign assets and they will waive sanctions now to permit Iran to sell oil. So Just imagine if that had been put on the table before Trump originally fired his first shots, that you will end in a hundred and ten days by reoping something that was already opened, and lifting sanctions on possibly your greatest foreign enemy and paying them more to help their supplies get through No You, Donaldrump wrote the book the art of the deal. Maybe it's time to update that with the art of the capitulation. becausecause what we have seen is Donald Trump at the outset of this promising that the ballistic missile programe would end notothing about that in the deal. It would stop the foreign funding of Hezbollah and Hamas Nothing about that the deal. Human rights, notothing about that. What about the protestterors? There was going to be regime change. Nothing about that either Donald Trump has absolutely achieved sweet Fuck all in this war with Iran So far, And in the end, as you say, Emily America is paying a price for it. It's lifting the sanctions. It's unfreezing the Iranian assets. And all we've got is the strait offul moves open for sixty days. Let's be clear about that. Iran is saying that after the sixty days, they will put tolls on ships coming through the strait What on earth has been achieved here? There's also this question of the three hundred billion dollars reconstruction fund. Now on the one hand, you know Trump sort of says, well, you look at what we did, we caused a trillion dollars worth of damage. That's just part of what we want. and if people want to invest, that's fine. But actually just look at it more closely, right We don't know who's funding this. It might be the Gulf States. The Gulf States certainly didn't ask to get involved in the bombing of Iran and receiving bombs on their own territory themselves. So why should they now feel that they are obliged to pay for the reconstruction? Just imagine what we're saying. We're saying, could everyone now come in and reinvest in a country that still remains presumably a primary enemy of America. I mean, a reconstruction fund traditionally is once you have removed a regime. Yeah, right? Once you've topped to rebuild Europe really or even Iraq. know you say we've taken out Saddam Hussein, now, let's try and put the country back together again. This is our pledge to you for your new life and your new beginning. There is no new beginning here There is no new life, there's the same regime in place. So essentially Trump is now inviting countries around the world to invest in a country that Actually they're still kind of politically at war with, right? Also didnn't Donald Trump have things to say about American foreign policy and nation building And this is what he's now trying to do in Iran. I mean, it's his history repeating itself. It is worth going back to Donald Trump. in twenty fifteen when he was talking about the JCPOA, the tortuously negotiated deal between Iran and other U.S and others, including Britain, of this deal that would stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon. This is him back in the day. He dealt from desperation and he shouldn't have been desperate. First of all, we're giving them billions of dollars in this deal a massive critic of any money going to Iran, at a time when frankly, Iran had made their pledge to let in nuclear experts to kind of see that they weren't enriching uranium in a way that they had promised not to, right? So that was part of the deal that Obama had got. Trump hasn't got anything more than just this off repeated phrase, we're not going to make a nuclear weapon. And so just back to the money, right? So all these states start sending Money because they're calling it reconstruction. but we're not hearing the IRGC say, o yeah, that's going to schools and hospitals, right? There's nothing that stops the money going in, frankly to the IRGC being spent on drones, on missiles, on more armament with which to then presumably hit whichever targets they fall out of favour with. The greatest strategic and geopolitical failure here is that The aim was to stop Iran being the disruptive regional superpowerers in the area And that was going to be because there was going to be regime change. They would stop their ballistic missile programe. They would stop funding all these terrorist groups, whether in Lebanon or in Gaza or in Yemen. And that would be Iran taken down a peg or two. You have now got the Gulf nations absolutely bloody terrified of what Iran's going to do next. You have got the regime in place. You have got Iran under no obligation to stop supporting these other these other groups outside of Iran And Iran has never looked more like the regional superpower America came and tried to destroy it And Iran has emerged stronger. Yeah. And the people who are really furious with Trump's turnabout, his capitulation, as you called it is Israel because they have been locked out the negotiations on this memorandum of understanding. They weren't given an opportunity to review the text. And the harshest words in the last three weeks, I think, have been between Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. In other words, the people that he went into it to try and help which I think we understand now. this was this was Trump's sort of, you know doing a solid for Netanyahu who said we need to be able to clear out Hezbollah from Lebanon. Now Trump's so angry about what Israel's been doing in Lebanon. they've locked them out the whole process. So they've kind of made an enemy of the person that you know was in Trump's pocket to start with. There is something that is so Uterally predictable about what the trajectory of this has been Donald Trump is all in. I'm all in. We've got to attack Iran, we've got to stop their nuclear programe. We've got to stop their missiles, we've got to stop them doing this. We want regime change. We want a whole new Iran, and it's time for the Iranian people to rise up All of that he wanted until the moment that the straight of Hormuz gets shut, oil prices go up in America and his popularity ratings start to tank At that point, he says, Oh, sorry, BB, you're on your own now. I don't want to have any part of this. We need to make peace here. I mean you have to make peace as well? T be fair, he called out Netanyahu and what he was doing in Lebanon in a way that few other leaders around the world have dared do. I think we should just play that clip maybe, where he talks about Why he's bombing entire apartment blocks just to find one person. I'll tell you what, Israel's fighting Hezraah too long and too many people are being killed And you don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody there are a lot of people in those apartment houses, and they're not all Hezbollah that I can tell you. He's spelling out what I think loads of people around the world think about Israeli actions in Lebanon. Quite frankly, But what this does mean is that ifetany Netanyahu decides that he doesn't need Trump anymore because Trump is not endorsing him, then he goes off and does what he wants in Lebanon. and suddenly the whole MOU, the whole understanding, the memorandum is over, and Iran decides that they can do what they want to do with the Straight of four moz again. undoubtedly is a loser in the longer term if this MOU becomes the sort of settled piece. The other big losers in all of this t the Gulf States, the GCC are terrified at what has happened, are appalled. They have put all their kind of defense in American hands. American equipment American Funding, American Help And America has shown itself to be powerless to defend them. And so you're going to see the Gulf states now looking elsewhere And so that means that America's influence in this region is going to decline And' you know it's hard to exaggerate. You know, I don't want to kind of people say, o my God, Emily and you know John have Trump Derangement syndrome. It is hard to look at this as anything other. And I so wanted this to succeed because The Iranian regime is brutal. It's hideous. It treats its citizens awfully. It's a disruptive force in the region and yet it's hard to come to any other conclusion that they have come out on top and all of this. Look If you take the long view Um, He clearly thought that Iran was going to be as easy as Venezuela So the question that I would ask now is, What happens to Cuba becausecause at one point, we thought that that was where America would head next, you know, in this sort of missionary zeal ticking off of places he didn't like, making, you know Marco Rubio sort of king of anyywhere a bit you know, naughty He' done Venezuela and he clocks that up as success. I mean I think that's a complicated picture we probably have to return to at some stage. Iran is an absolute mess and the Gulf states are in a more delicate position now vis their relationship with America than ever before Does it maybe save Cuba? from American invasion for a couple of months because he's lost his appetite now. I mean that's actually what you would be praying. You'd be praying that it's done enough to kind of him off but maybe the opposite is true. Maybe he thinks he needs to clock up a win because everyone is telling him, like frankly, spelling out to his face that he's a complete loser now We will be back in just a moment with Radik Sakorsky, the Polish Foreign Minister Dputy Pimeinis Granger knows, when you're a procurement manager for an office park You're not managing one building, you're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners. Lights about to fail, filters ready to clog, HB on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind Count O on Granger for quality products, easy reordering, and twenty four seven support Call one eight hundred Granger, click Granger. com or just stop by. Granger. For the ones who get it done Hey, it's your ceiling vent. So I'm dripping. Could be the rain, could be the upstairs bathroom. Yikes You could hire the guy your neighbor recommended, but I'm pretty sure that's just his cousin. 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So apologies for that. Look, let's start with why you're in London and the signing of a Polish British defense Understanding what is that Our treaty has already been signed. It's called the Northold Treaty, which is where Polish Squadron three hundred three, which had the highest The number of scores during the Battle of Britain was stationed And we're very pleased by this enhanced relationship in the security field with the UK. So does but what does it actually mean? Does it mean? mean We're all in NATO. so what difference does it make if there's a Polish British Treaty on Defence? Well, it's more specific. it's it updates previous agreements And it encourages how militaries are defence companies to get together to cooperate. You'll have seen we're talking a lot about defence spending here at the moment. We lost the Deense Secret Johne Last week, He left with a very strong message to the Prime Minister that he wasn't spending enough on defence to keep the country safe. How do you view what's going on here? Well, I wouldn't dream of interfering in your politics But I can say that Poland has had a super law that guarantees the military two percent for twenty years, we're actually now spending eight percent of GDP on hard defense and another percentage and a half on civil protection and other measures U Papolin Bonaparte, I know, is a controversial figure in this country, but he said that a country that does not feed its own army is destined to feed a foreign one. something that we in Poland have learned to our cost many times. So And you know, the closer you are to Russia, surprise, surprise, the more countries spend on defence. So we're not spending enough. out We have all made pledges originally at the Wales NATO Summit and most most recently at the Hague last year As European allies in NATO, we have doubled our spending since Trump won But it's not enough. The US is withdrawing certain capabilities from Europe, literally today and from the contingency plans. And they are telling us honestly that we have to step in. and the defence is expensive I mean, look, there were very specific criticisms that came from John Heley, which were that Kis Am had made a pledge at Munich, he'd made a pledge in the Cons, and then the time frrame for that spending on defence was getting pushed further and further and it wasn't actually moted to come until twenty thirty four. So I mean very specifically, you're not interfering in our politics because We are NATO, we are all NATO. So what we spend directly affects how Poland feels as well. I'm just trying to get a sense of whether you think that there has been a' very grateful for what successive British governments have and done for Ukraine You have done the right thing and led others and been a good example to follow for others and Ukraine appreciates it. and it's one of the reasons why Ukraine has been able to resist Russian aggression And what I can say is that Putin might not wait for us with the timcale remember U I was I'm a former deffence minister myself. Um, takes time to create new capacity to manufacture equipment and ammunition. It's somet new systems sometimes take even a decade So we feel there is urgency. Ukraine has given us till the end of the decade Reyam. as long as Putin is bogged down in Don't bus. He's been fighting there for thirteen years. He can't launch He might do something right. We've got four years, that's what But he cannot launch another war. But four years is not eternity. Okay, but let me just kind of frame it slightly different l. Do you think Europe Western Europe is doing enough at the moment to meet the challenge, meet the urgency of the challenge posed by the twin effects of Vladimir Putin seeming to be more aggressive and Donald Trump wanting American forces to retreat. Well, Putin is waging hybrid war against us The methods that they used against your Pime Minister's home are very similar to the methods they use in Poland. We've had an assassination in Poland two or three days ago, and it looks and we have a suspect and as you know, you've had the Lithaniianko, the scriptals and so on. So he's capabilities are less. but his intent is worse than many people thought. And remember a sick man with a gun He is still a man with a gun as he seems to be maybe even losing in Ukraine He might do something desperate and we should and that's why we need to stay vigilant. So let's talk about that. Do you think he is losing? I mean we've seen today astonishing pictures from the Moscow area of oil refineries on fire and you know kind of massive drone attacks from Ukraine on the Russian capital. I think if we were talking on the eve of the Russian invasion and we described correlation of forces in the theatre. as they are today I don't think we would have predicted that Ukraine has won the battle over the Black Sea country with Aen Havi and Ukrainian exports are reaching international markets. Ukraine has denied Russia air superiority over its territory. Russians can drop bombs or launch missiles, but they can't fly over Kiev. And in the strikes The Russians are hitting civilian targets, Ukrainians much more smartly, are hitting Russia's refining capacity and they are knocking out around twenty percent. That's not counting today's strikes And this is affecting Russia's ability to wage war and also Russia's finances. we have as the EU, we have extended a ninety billion euro. Um loan to Ukraine. Hungary has just unblocked another seven billion euro financing for military assistance which means that Putin has to recalculate whether he can afford to carry on with this war for another two years It sounds like we actually owe a lot to Ukraine. Wh there is all this discussion about EU acccess, acccession What do you think The Ukrainian army is the biggest and the most experienced A army in Europe on our side And yes, they have earned their status as a candidate for the EU through their valour But of course, entering the EU is a more complicated businessiness with every passing decade because the body of European law grow. But should it be expedited It should be expedited while Ukraine fulfills all the criteria. So we've just I mean, should they leapfrog for example, Albania or Moldova or The Balkans is unfinished business, but remember, Ukraine is a country at war There are issues There was corruption in the past. We have to be sure that that's been extinguished someome chapters will be difficult for some countries You know, it took Poland seven years. How long would you like to see this eat? It's impossible to predict because it depends on the speed of Ukraine's Um introduction of European norms inside Ukraine Britain is about to celebrate I don't know whether celebr is the rightd verb to use. An ignominious anniversary ten years since we left the European Union and suddenly the music muchuch more now fromr British politicians from Andy Burnham, who might be the next prrime Minister or Wes Streeting, who might be the next prrime Minister, that we need to completely rethink our relationship with the EU. Is the door open to Britain. it wanted to come back. Of course it is. The original Rome treaty said that every European country can apply. And my definition of a European country is a country whose majority territory is in Europe. So obviously you can apply. But I mean given the turmoil that has been caused by Britain, with the decision, the referendum to leave, the aftermath of that I mean, if it applied, what would be the level of welcome It's up to you to choose from the menu and each dish on the menu has a price tag in terms of pooling of sovereignty. So today you are less integrated with you than Turkey. You're not even in the customs union If you wanted to be a member of the single market There is no going around being subject to the judgments of the European Court of Justice If you cannot agree to that because of your own politics, you will not become a member of the single market. How do you read the politics of it? You are better judges of that, but I feel that this fundamental issue has not been properly digested. Can we just go back on that then The single market or the customs union would not be available to us without freedom of movement. Is that an absolute right life? Customs union is much easier. The single market, yes. The single market has its rules, you know. that would be No without freedom of movement to EU citizens. Well, I mean, if we made an exception to you, what would we then say to Switzerland or Norway And Just going back to when we were members of the European Union, there were all sorts of carve outs for Britain. bits on the social chapter. We didn't take the euro We weren't part of Schengen. Euro is easy. So Poland joined after you and we are obliged by Treaty to join the Euro. So Britain would be as well. join. But it doesn't say when or at what rate. Right. So those areas would be open Are you welcome The fact that the pendulum in this country seems to be swinging back towards closer relations with Europe after a messy divorce. Well, you were taken for a ride by people who promised the earth and delivered I seem to recall there was a minister for finding the benefits of Brexit. Did he succeed in his mission? The Brexit Festival, actually, aren't we? Brexit festival There's an awful lot' waiting for to show that Brexit has made us better off, and I think that the British people are still waiting impatiently. What about the comments from Nigel Farage last week to Laa Publicka, the Italian newspaper that under a reform UK government European citizens in the UK could lose rights and benefits that are currently protected under or Brexit deal So the actual deliverable of Brexit, was that the status of EU citizens in this country was brought down to the level of all other foreigners. and actually also EU citizens outside this country in the EU. U so, you know, they were deprived of the freedom of movement No You gave settled status to those who already here. That was your national decision And um On this, I'm slightly torn to be to be honest because on the one hand it would seem to be mean spirited to withdraw that pledge, that right. But on the other hand, we want our poles back We when Tony Blair very generously in the spirit of friendship didn't exercise the seven year right to keep the labour market closed. Everybody and his brother from Eastern Europe tried their luck here. we think over nine hundred thousand Paoles came to this country. So you're in the curious position of supporting Nigel Farage he s We don't actually will take your rights away because you get your citizens back. I mean, that's what you think. I think what would happen is that many of them would apply for citizenship. Here hereere in Britain and some would come back Could I ask you about What we've seen overnight, which is the signing of a memorandum of understanding over the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. And I saw people applauding President Trump What are they applauding? seeeeing as we seem to be no better off than we were before This war started at the end of February I think we are all pleased that the Strait of Hamuz is due to be open because the threat to the global economy if this closure continues to happen But it was open Sure, you might say that I couldn't possibly comment. Is that a victory? You know, there is the old anecdote about a tourist in Ireland asking about how to go to Dublin. Wouldn't start from here. You wouldn't start from here. Yeah, exactly. What does that tell us about Stealing with Donald Trump that he comes in and he's at the G seven and he says, I'm the boss and he' you know, and it's so about him And yet you know everyone feels they've got to applaud when actually there is nothing to applaud. Well, you know, he was right when he castigated, particularly Western Europe, if I may say so, for consuming the peace dividend for too long And we also have a relationship with Donald Trump. He know America is drawing down in Europe as a whole, but he seems to be considering sending some troops to where the actual threat is, which is the eastern flank, which is to say Poland, and we appreciate that. But just going back to the Iran thing. I mean, there were world leaders. I G seven leaders in the room last night in Versailles and you know, Macroon is saying Bravo And people are ploting you think Wh Why is everyone The sick man with a gun, as you said, is still Yeah, why is with a gun? Airst people still sucking up to Donald Trump as the default position I'm not brave enough to answer that question. Isn't that funny? So that requires political bravery But you think that is do I describe it accurately? Poland has an excellent relationship with the United States and we want to have it irrespective of who is in charge either in the United States or in Poland. But do I describe it accurately of what went on around that table? sayky is lost for words at this. We watched only bits of it. Iportant things happen. you know President Trump signed the MOU with Iran as a result of which the Strait of Homuz is being opened. That's a good thing. Do you understand the three hundred billion mooted dollars that will go to Iran now. Does that make sense It's supposed to be a voluntary fund open to many countries? So that's the least controversial part of it, I think Yes. and are you confident the peace will hold and that actually shipping will remain open and free movement of commercial shipping once these sixty days is up because the Iranians seem to think it won't be. We will pray for it. seemeems to be quite a lot to pray for at the moment. Indeed Can I ask you one last question? I mean, we've skirted around what has been very present at the G seven this week, which is that all the leaders are dealing with Kist Ama, a man who might not be in place