Incumbent Vulnerability and Future Election Trends

This message comes from Schwab. At Schwab, you can get everything from self directed investing to full service wealth management all in one place. No matter your investing goal, life stage, amount to invest, or know how, you can invest your way with Swab Voters want change. We saw it again in Colorado's primary elections yesterday, which featured some real upsets. A Democratic socialist ousted a fifteen term incumbent in one race, and in another, we saw a sitting US Senor lose a primary for governor. Let's get into it It's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks. I cover voting. And I'm Tamera Keeith. I cover politics. And we also have Colorado Public Radio's Benta Birkland with us. Hi Benta. Hi, thanks for having me. Yeah, thanks for being here. So we're recording today's podcast at around twelve thirty eight PM Eastern time on july first, twenty twenty six And I want to start with the race Benta in Colorado's first congressional district, where a twenty nine year old Democratic socialist named Melot Kiros won the Democratic primary for that seat Tell us about her and tell us about how this race unfolded This is a very safe blue district and Mela Kiros was born a year after Diana De Gette was first elected to Congress. So De Gette has been in Congress for three decades uros, a first time candidate touted herself as a politician for the working class Her family immigrated to Denver from Ethiopia when she was a baby Senator Bernie Sanders endorsed her campaign and she had viral Instagram videos and so many enthusiastic volunteers and supporters. And she won the backing of voters like Carson Brownley. He's thirty years old and he's unaffiliated. And in Colorado, unaffiliated voters can vote in party primaries. They just have to select So he was one of the many unaffiliated voters in this Democratic primary election, and he said he voted for generational change. Da Get's been in office for thirty years and that's Not that unique to her, you know And I think fresh bllood is healthy for the political process for the people that have happen been in,, we have a balance of experience, but if new people are coming into it, you know, it keeps the pressure on because at the end of the day If you're in politics, you represent the people Am I correct? I understand this touches on a lot of trends that we've been seeing all a year, but am I correct to still be surprised at a fifteen term incumbent losing to a twenty nine year old candidate? Yes. a lot of people were very surprised. And keep in mind, this was a three way race Third Democrat Wanda James didn't gain much traction But I definitely wondered how that would impact things because you did have more than one option if you didn't want Diana to get to go back in Congress But we heard time and again from voters that they were angry and frustrated with incumbents and with Washington And to get didn't make this case to voters that her seniority and All our decades of knowledge were an asset. And I will just add There's a deep bench in Denver of Democrats who were kind of waiting in line for to get to retire. So a lot of the political talk today is like, can you believe this outsider who didn't come from the state legislature, didn't come from city council unseated to get to get is It's not like she was a squishy, moderate Democrat. She is a progressive Democrat. but att this point Voters saw her as being part of the system, a system that they feel like is failing them This is a phenomenon that we're seeing play out in a number of races this year. I talked to Adam Green, who's the head of the Progressive Change campaign Committee. They call themselves bold progressives. They are out there helping supporting these outsider candidates And what he said is that You know, many candidates have this thing in common. They are people who are going to shake up the system. They are economic fighters, they are outsiders. And so he puts in that category people like Graham Platner in Maine as well as Kirus in Colorado. B I wonder about the connection to specifically the Democratic socialists of America because we saw that last week right in New York with these candidates who were associated with the mayor their M Danni, beating incumbents in Congress in their primaries there as well. Are we starting to see a trend with that specific ideology? Miles, you bring up an interesting question about that label, Democratic Socialists of America. what does that mean And I think for this particular race in Colorado, We did talk to a lot of vockaters who were focused on US support for Israel, outside corporate pact spending and just what that meant for candidates. And so Kuros described what happened in the deeadly War in Gaza as a genocide. and criticized Digette for pushing back against Israel enough, and that was a theme we saw. Turos, I will say drew broad criticism for declining to say that a deadly firebombing attack in Boulder was ant Semitic And the attacker there did target a group of predominantly Jewish demonstrators. But aside from that, you know Israel was definitely a factor in this race But we still overall have the generational change and people wanting this fresh face And at age twenty nine, Kuros would be Colorado's youngest member of our conongressional delegation, although we have a lot of young members which I think is unique for a state President Trump has been messaging that basically the left is moving towards communism and these warnings have been getting more dire lately. How do you think Republicans are going to kind of seize on these DSA candidates this year? Yeah, I was at the White House yesterday talking to a senior White House official, and I was like, so do you think that affordability is really going to be like the main issue in these elections? And he was like, ye, yeah, affordability. We've got things to say about that and also communism. It is not a stretch to say that the White House and Republicans view this rise of candidates, nominees, labeled Democratic Socialists of America, they see this as a messag and gift. And no, they are probably not going to be able to defeat these candidates in bright blue districts, but they can take that message about Oh Democrats, they are out of touch with real America. I mean, this is very much in line with Republican messaging that we've seen for years, but they are going to grab ont to this and take the most controversial things that these candidates say And use that in more swing and moderate districts where you need swing voters, where you need independent voters if you're going to win. I mean, there are a lot of districts where Republicans are hanging on by a thread. and this is a kind of message where they can say, do you really want this party to be in control of Congress And one of those districts is also in Colorado in the eighth district, Benta, right? I mean, this is one of the true toss up. districts in the country, one of the few left after the sort of gerrymandering Wars the last year. So I want to hear what happened in the primary there last night as well. Yes. I mean, this is a district just north of Denver and drastically different than the Denver district It was drawn by Colorado's Iependent Rdistricting Commission to be a toss up and it truly is. It's the state's newest district. It was first won by a Democrat. that Democrat narrowly lost won by a Republican, Gabe Evans. He's in Congress now. This is his first reelection. He didn't face a primary challenge, But on the left, two Democrats were vying to take him on of former state lawmaker, Shannon Bird She's much more moderate and pitched herself as someone who could win in a purple district and bring people together. And then you had Democrat Manny Rutinel. He is a current state lawmaker more progressive. and he won the primary overwhelmingly And he leaned into his family background. His mother immigrated from the Dominican Republic. He was raised by a single mother pitching, fighting for the working class and affordability and then of course pushing against the Trump administration. But this is so close to Denver yet so far away when it comes to politics. The Democrats in this district are much different. And then Colorado, most voters are unaffiliated So any person who's successful in November in this eighth congressional district will need a lot of unaffiliated voter support. Colorado's eighth C congressionalistict is seen as a key pickup opportunity for Democrats in these midterms. and there aren't that many of them. And I think this is going to be one of the interesting questions. Al in California's twenty second congressional district. you had a primary where there was a more moderate Democrat or a more establishment Democrat and then a more progressive Democrat and the more progressive Democrat won, that again is another one of these swing districts that is very close. and I think that there's a real question about whether the know sort of institutional wisdom idea that you need a moderate Democrat in a moderate district is the answer or whether the answer is you need a Democrat who speaks to the sort of primal rage that a lot of voters are feeling right now. All right, well, we can take a quick break and more on Colorado in just a moment This message comes from Cook Unity, the first chef led meal delivery service where every meal is handcrafted in local micro kitchens, not mass produced in large facilities, with hundreds of dishes to choose from and over ten different dietary preferences, like high protein, low sodium, GOP one, and more. 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Receive twenty percent off at xL dot com slash npR And we're back. And we're going to talk about the governor's race in Colorado now. Colorado has an open governor's seat because Democratic governor Jared Polis is term limited Bent I want to start with the Republican side here. That race in that primary is still too close to call at this point, but who's running and how has the race played out? Yes, this is a three way race. between E state Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer state lawmaker Bottoms and then Victor Marx. He's a political outsider. He is a self described, high risk humanitarian and has a ministry. has a big social media following and raised a lot of money. So right now this race is between Kirkmeyer and Marx K Meer is a traditional Republican. and by that, I mean she works with Democrats in the state legislature. Democrats hold a majority in our state legislature. She serves on the powerful budget committee that crafts Colorado's budget. She's running on pushing back against Democratic one party control in the state, reigning and spending And then marks and bottoms kind of split the mega wing of the party. Bottoms is a pastor. his campaign was focused on rooting out pedophilia at the state legislature, providing no evidence that that's happening, but that was a focus of his. Whereas Marx has really leaned into his outsider status And people have found him charming, but he does have a very dicey background. He's talked about committing a homicide at age seven and not provide evidence for that. So right now, again, too close to call between Marks and Kirkmeyer lot to take in there. That was a lot. Yeah. I want to ask about how the president is coming up in this primary because I feel like in every Republican primary, almost every Republican primary we've talked about this year. it a lot of times just comes down to who can make the argument that they are closer to President Trump's visions in a lot of ways. Colorado has a pretty complicated relationship with the presresident right now. It's a blue state. There's been a lot of I mean, the whole Tina Peters thing that we've talked about on this podcast a bunch. how did President Trump come up on the campaign trail in that race come up a lot. I mean, keep in mind that the state level, President Trump isn't a popular figure in the state. And even in some red pockets, when you look at the voting over the last presidential cycles that Trump has been run for president, you see the support in even some conservative areas lowering, you know, the margin is getting lower and lower I think that especially for you know, Marx he's leaned into that a little bit and certainly captured that mega Sentiment, if you will But it hasn't been the focus. It's just really Democrats have been focused on Trump a lot, not as much Republicans at this point OkayK, well, I want to turn to the Democratic side here, which had a result that again, this is one of those ones where I'm not sure if I'm the only one who's surprised by this or if everyone was surprised by this, but the US sitting senator Michael Bennett was running for the Democratic nomination for governor. and he lost to the sitting A atttorney general. Benta, can you lay out this race Yes. So Bennett was definitely the front rununner. He served three terms in the U. S Senate, a well known politician in Colorado. People may remember he briefly ran for president And it was his race to lose and early on political circles in Colorado, people said Bennett's going to win. And in fact, he kind of cleared the field because A lot of people want to be governor. We're a blue state We have a term limited governor. People were eyeing that seat Well, you have Phil Weiser. He's Colorado's current attorney general. He's wrapping up eight years was term limited. And Weiser really ran this campaign to capture the progressive wing of the party This is a race where Wiser and Bennett are pretty similar on a lot of policy issues. But Wiser made the case that he would fight for Colorado, that he has done more to push back against the Trump administration, that Bennett should just stay in the Senate. Bennett has two more years in his Senate term. And so Wiser just was seen as the change candidate in this race you know, in the case of Bennett We're in this stage in politics where people are looking for A fighter and Bennett is kind of a happy go lucky, peaceful type And in particular in a governor's race You know, this actually does matter because the president of the United States and governors, depending on how it goes, can really tangle and especially in a state where there could be wildfires and need for disaster assistance and all of these other things, that relationship between the governor and the White House can be very important I think that's right. And one of the biggest lines of attack against Bennett was that as a U. S. Senator, Bennett voted to confirm more of President Trump's cabinet nominees than other Democrats in the Senate And that was something that did not sit well with a lot of voters One woman I spoke with said, how can we trust that person to then fight for the state as governor when we don't know what may come our way from the federal government Colorado is an all mail ballot state. We've been in the news a lot because it's now changed its name, but Dominion voting systems was headquartered here. You know, People are nervous about what's going to happen with elections going forward And a lot of voters said we do need a very strong governor who will not back down So it looks like one exception to this anti incumbent energy was Democratic Senator John Hicken Looper's primary. He was running for reelection. Bento what happened there M C Looper was facing a challenge from the left. prorogressive state lawmaker, Julie Gonzallez And I think it was a confluence of a lot of different things. Any trend isn't going to be necessarily uniform because every race, every candidate is still unique Kake C Looper He's running for reelection. He was a governor for two terms in Colorado. Prior to that, he was the Denver mayor. He was very high profile. He is the most well known politician in the state He did take this challenge seriously. He built a campaign early on