Competitive general election and national implications

NPR's tiny desk can't come to you. I mean it's a desk, but the tiny desk contest tour can New York City join NPR's tiny desesk contest winner, Cure for Paranoia at Warsaw this july ninth. It's all the NPR Tiny Dk ennerergy minus the office furniture Get your tickets now at tinydesktour. org It's Tam. and there were big wins last night for congressional candidates backed by New York mayor Zulran Mam Dani And there were primaries in Utah and Maryland and a runo in South Carolina too I always love it when we have election results and we've got those on today's pod. So let's get to it Hey there, it's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Tamma Keith. I cover politics. I'm Elena Moore. I also cover politics. And I'm John Campbell from New York Public Radio. Today on the show, we're exploring what these primary results tell us about the direction of the Democratic Party and this November's midterms So John Tell us about these races where Mam Danni played Kingmaker. Yeah, and Kingmaker is the right term for it because he made three congressional endorsements and he went three for three. You've got New York thirteen, that's in upper Manhattan and part of the Bronx. That's where community organizer Daria Eliza Avila Chevier ousted, a powerful incumbent in Adriano Espayat, who's the chair of the Congressional Hispanic caucus. This is a race where Mom Donni endorsed in the closing weeks of the campaign and seemed to really give a boost to Vila Chvier You've got the tenth district. This is lower Manhattan and Brooklyn. That's where former city Croller Brad Lander really took it to Dan Goldman, the incumbent. Over in Brooklyn and Queens, you've got the seventh district where state Assembly member Claire Valdez won in a freeway race Valdez is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, as is Mam Donni, so is Dariaiza Avila Chevier. and this was really a moment for Meramam Donni to flex his political muscle. I mean he is a significant figure on the political left and he really cemented his status as that last night. At least in New York City in these more liberal areas of New York City. candidates that were up against The establishment, you know, two incumbents and a third candidate andntonio Renosso in the seventh district that was backed by Nidia Velasquez, the longtime incumbent representative who's retiring. So yeah, this was really a test of Mar Mom Donny's political strength and he came out on top. And he celebrated it. Yeah. Mom Donny showed up at all three victory parties and he was really trying to make the case that this is something What you all have shown this evening, whether for state assemblies, state, Senate, or Congress Is that a year ago It was not the end of a political movement. And you know another important thing out of these races is it wasn't just that Mum Dani backed candidates that have pretty similar core values to the ones he ran on last year. It's that Mum Danni actively broke with Democratic leaders. And New York is important for a lot of reasons. It has the best sports teams in the country. otherwise It's also a place where the top Democratic leaders are based. Senate mininority leadeer, Chuck Schumer, House mininority leadeer, Hakim Jeffries, they are both based in New York City That did not stop Mom Dni from paving his own path and supporting who he wanted. He actively broke with Jeffrees in multiple of these races where Jeffrees backed incumbents who lost to Mom Donni's preferred candidates. He also broke with longtime progressives that are really revered in the area. I'm thinking of Nidia Velazquez who is retiring. Mom Donni did not support the candidate that she supported. That's pretty politically risky for any politician to do, let alone someone who has only been in office for less than seven months Elena, can you talk about what the issues were in these races? Yeah. Well, I mean, I think that some of the same divisive issues that are reverberating throughout the Democratic Party around the country were front and center in New York. And that's everything from the role of tech companies and outside groups spending in elections to views about Israel and how critical to be about Israel's actions in Gaza to calls for generational change and passing the baton to a next generation of leaders or a more progressive generation of leaders. And literally all of those themes that we've talked about on the pod for months and months and months and maybe years were on pl in Neworkity. You know we saw that in some of these races where Mom Donny weighed in. I'm thinking about in New York's tenth congressional district, which is parts of Lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn. That race was between Dan Goldman, the now outgoing representative and Brad Lander, the former City comproller, who had Mom Donny's backing. He is not a DSA candidate, but identified as progressive key issue in that race was Israel. These are two men, Lander and Goldman that are both Jewish, but they talk about their views on Israel differently. Lander considers himself a liberal Zionist. Dan Goldman has ties to APAC. and I thought it was a really nuanced example of how deeply rooted notot black and white, this issue is for so many Democrats. And obviously, that is a big issue. Another issue that we've been talking about a lot in so many primaries is affordability. How did that issue play in these races, John? You know, in these three races in particular, it was an issue, but it seemed to kind of take a backseat to that Israel Gaza situation that Elena was just talking about. And you know, Mar Mom Donny, when he was elected last year, it was on an unrelenting focus on issues of affordability. He was also very outspoken about the war in Gaza You know, it was affordability, affordability, affordability. It was less of a focus in these three Democratic primaries, but perhaps more of a focus in other areas of the state where there were other primaries that didn't have, say a democratic socialist running in in them and it was more of a moderate affair. Let's go to New York twelve. which we talked about a lot on the podcast yesterday is a race where there was a lot of AI money involved. It was a very expensive race because the artificial intelligence industry spent a ton of money. John, walk us through that race Yeah, this is when the dust settles, this is going to be one of if not the most expensive House primaries in history. I mean, it was not a race that Mor Mom Donnie endororsed in, despite living in that district in Gracing Mansion, but this is a really, really highly sought after district. It has all of Midtown, Manhattan, the upper east side, the upper west side You're succeeding Jerry Nadler, who was kind of this progressive lion in New York. and you had candidates in the race, Michael Lasher came out on top. He's a state assembly member. He was backed by Mayor Bloomberg who put ten million dollars into a super pact supporting him. and he was really more of an establishment figure. but that said There were a few establishment figures in this race. There wasn't really the DSA backed candidate. This wasn't a race that they really got involved in But Michael Lasher came on the top. He beat Alex Boris, a fellow state Assembly member who was the subject of that AI spending. He passed an AI regulatory bill in Albany last year and just tens of millions of dollars were spent on him either in support or opposition from various factions of the AI industry. But ultimately, it was Lashher who came on top. He is very much an establishment figure. He worked for Mayor Bloomberg. He worked for Governor Hokel. He worked for Jerry Nadler. So this was one where the establishment came on top New York twelve is a good example of something we've seen in other like very, very blue districts around the country, which is when a long time Democrat decides to pass the baton, it seems like the party doesn't exactly know what to do. You know, I think we saw that in Chicago in a lot of districts where there were there were longtime liberal members who have decided to step down after decades. and we saw these races of like dozens really hungry to step up. And we saw that, I think, in this district, where there was really a slew of names from obviously Boris and Lasher, but then you also literally had the grandson of John F. Kennedy Running Jack Schlasberg, you had George Conway, who's the ex husband of Kelly Nne Conway, the former Trump advisor. And you know, on top of that, I would just say it's another example where we saw this idea of name recognition kind of like not being as big of a deal as maybe it could seem to be, because in the end, this ended up going to the establishment pick, which is a rarity in yesterday's races when you look at who won elsewhere? John, can we turn further up state and talk about the Republican side of the coin? We have New York twenty one, which has been represented for quite some time by Elise Stehoniic congresswoman who had close ties first to establishment Republicans and then later to President Trump. She ultimately decided not to run again. and there was a fight to replace her. and it was sort of a MagGA versus establishment fight Yeah, and this is kind of the opposite end of the spectrum of the Mam Danni as Kingmaker debate or discussion, I should say. becausecause this is one where President Trump as Kingmaker really played a big role here. He backed a man named Anthony Constantino. He is the businessman. A few years ago, he came out really point where he put up a huge Trump sign on his building in Amsterdam, New York. It's visible from the highway. I mean, you can't miss this thing. So, you know, he had a statue of Trump made, he made an album of all these pro Trump songs and it really seemed designed to Donald Trump's attention and it worked. Donald Trump endorsed him. and that really put him over the top against Robert Smullen, who's a state assembly member who ran a more low key campaign, certainly not as flashy And this is, you know, Constantino came out ahead and defeated the candidate that was favored by the New York establishment Republicans And he's going to be running against a Democrat by the name of Blake Jenebey. and this is one where Democrats are hoping maybe they can flip, but this is a district that has gone pretty red the last several cycles. Yeah, and that had been a relatively purplish district, but in recent years has gotten very red. All right, we're going to take a quick break. We will have more in a moment about what this all means for the future of the Democratic Party This message comes from Kachava. It can be tough to stick to your wellness routine, especially when you're on the go. Koachava's new travel packs make it easier. Just one packet provides nutrition ready for wherever life takes you with protein, fiber, grains, probiotics, electrolytes, and more T takeake your daily ritual with you. go to kachava. com and use code inPR New customers get fifteen percent off their first order. That's kacChaVa. com code inpR For instant clarity on world events in just five minutes, listen to NPR News Now. New episodes drop every hour. With the latest on U.S politics, international news, the economy, health, science, technology, and more, five minutes is all it takes to get fully caught up with NPR News Now Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts. And we're back. And there's one more race that we are following. That is in New York's seventeenth cononggressional district. Representative Mike Lawler is the Republican congressman who represents that district. It is considered to be one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats in this midterm season. John, tell us about the race to take on lawler Yeah, this was a really crowded primary. It was a five way primary for the right to take on Mike Lawler in November. And this district is very different from those New York liberal districts that we were talking about earlier. This is in the New York City suburbs. It's got you know Westchester County, part of Westchester County, Rockland County And this is more of a purple district. This is more of a toss up district Conley is a military veteran. She's got degrees from MIT in Harvard. She was a counter tterrorism official in the Biden administration. She came out on top. She defeated Beth Davidson, who is a local county lawmaker. some more progressive challenges in Eie Phillips Staley. And this is one where a moderate came out on top. Kate Conley is more moderate than a lot of those candidates we were talking about earlier that M Mom Donnie backed And this is going to be a tight race. I mean, it is, as you said, one of the biggest democratic pickup opportunities in the country. However It was two years ago too. and Mike Lawler came out on top. and two years before that, he defeated Sean Patrick Maloney, who was the head of the DApleC at the time. So Mike Lawler is a formidable opponent here. There's a democratic enrollment edge, but the district has shown to vote more in a manner than perhaps the enrollment numbers suggest. And President Trump recently campaigned with Lawler, which I thought was incredibly interesting because it is such a purple district and because he has many times tried to distance himself at least a little bit. He's not one of the candidates hugging the president. Oh yeah, this is like totally a double edged sword for Lawler because he both needs to keep his support with Trump, but he also needs to show New Yorkers who might not be happy with the state of the country in Trump's second term that he understands their pain here. So you know, it's really interesting looking at New York City and comparing it to this race because You know, the issues are being talked about differently, but they are still similar issues, which is there is widespread economic strife, financial concern about, you, affordability. And Lawler is going to have tow a line here that most other lawmakers in this country do not have to telle Because most other lawmakers in this country are not in districts where there's any suspense about what way it's going to go because there's so much partisan polarization at this point in the way districts are drawn. Right, which is why we spend so much time talking about these intraparty fights and primaries because the way that most maps are drawn these days, that's where the conversation is. But Lawler is a rare example of an actually competitive general election matchup And just like Kate Cony is going to try to do everything she can to tie Lawler to Donald Trump Mike Lallly is going to do everything he can to tie Kate Connley to these Democratic socialists that just won because that won't play as well in his district. That's a long time part of the playbook from New York Republicans. and I wouldn't be surprised to see he play it here as well. Oh, and let me just say, this is not just going to be a message in one swing district in New York This is going to be literally the Republican message in these midterms more broadly. They are going to paint The Democratic Party is the Democratic Socialist Party. and you saw that already today, Speaker Mike Johnson held a press conference at the Capitol You've been hearing me say for weeks. There are many Mamanis popping up all around the country. It is a dangerous thing. This is not a joke We are in a fight right now to save the Republic. And every American needs to take this seriously. you need to wake up This upcoming midterm election is not the midterm elections of years ago It's going to decide the direction of the country Are we going to maintain our status as a constitutional Republic on our two hundred and fiftih anniversary Are we going to make a new choice and go down some road towards a communist utopia That's a striking message from the speaker of the House because he is often a lot more chipper, which he acknowledged in his press conference that this is kind of a break from him rhetorically. But I do think it's important to say like it's not new that the GOP is attacking this wing of the party. I mean, AOC, Cgresswoman Alexandria O Ccasio Cortez Also a New York City representative and other more progressive and Democratic socialist leaders have been the focus of the GOP and this idea of the left moving towards extremism for years. I think the winds last night kind of crystallize that message, revamp that message, give new you energy to that message, but it's not necessarily a new one which I think is important to mention Yes, it is not necessarily new. and at times, it has been very effective for President Trump and his party to say like, whoa, whoa, whoa, Democrats have gone too far. They are too liberal. They are they are pushing ideas that don't represent you Middle America Well, it's also partially why we are spending so much time talking about New York City and the primaries because yes, this is a very, very small portion of the United States electorate, but it has a lot of national attention. And I think regardless of whether Mamani's policies and those he supports policies reflect a broader electorate The Republican Party is going to argue that it does or that it could. And I think that's why we need to keep tabs on it because this is a message that has a lot of attention right now