Economic populism and voter pessimism

Every episode of It'sin a Minute, NPR's What's happenpping Culture podcast starts by asking three questions. Who? How? Why now? If the culture's asking it, we're talking about it. At NPR, we stand for your right to be curious and indulge your cultural curiosity. Follow it's beenin a mininute wherever you get your podcasts, and we'll break down the zeitgeisty topics that are filling your feed Hey there, it's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Ashy Lopez, at cover politics. I'm Allena Moore. I also cover Politics. And I'm Mara Lason, senior national political correspondent. More than half the states have had their primary elections, and we're going to start noticing some big themes taking shape. And today, we're gonna talk about some of the themes we're seeing. Alena, I want to start with you What would you say are some of the big takeaways you have across these races so far? Yeah. I mean, I think probably the one I've been following the most is this narrative around anti incumbency or rejection of the so called establishment. And I think what makes it so interesting is it's actually manifesting, I think, very differently on both sides of the aisle, but it's being talked about on both sides of the aisle. So I guess starting with Democrats, there have been several high profile races for Senate ouse governor that have dealt with this message. I think the biggest example and the most current one is maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner. He has the endorsement of Bernie Sanders. He's running on key affordability concerns, pushing things like Medicare for all, and he is a candidate who At first was going up against Janet Mills, the current outgoing governor of Maine. and Mills had the establishment backing. She had the support of Democratic leadership. But Platinner was pushing a populist message focused on affordability, these kitchen table issues we've been talking over and over about and how core they are to voters And he was dominating in the polls. And so I think that was an anti establishment race right there. Now Platner, he wins the primary. obbviously there we've talked about the the baggage that he has regarding recent allegations over his past behavior. Now he faces Republican incumbent Susan Collins, who is also, in some ways, an establishment figure thirty year incumbent. So I'm going to be really curious to see how that message shifts going from establishment anti establishment to insider outsider Yeah, that's going to be a very good test of this theme. But the other test came early even beyond peopleople deciding to run for Congress. We've had a record number of either retirements, resignations, people leaving Washington leaving Congress to run for something else. It was in part because of this anti incumbency sentiment. They decided to get ahead of that, especially if they were an older representative, rather than risking losing because of this anti incumbency sentiment, they stepped down voluntarily. And it all goes back to Democrats, This is their first major election since twenty twenty four when they suffered, you know, national losses around the country And in large part, you know, the narrative from that election was around age and whether seniority was the de facto versus different issue concerns that people were having. And former President Joe Biden, his age and his tenure was really front and center. And so I think it's been fascinating to see how different longtim Democrats really wrestle with that question Yeah. and I think because so many eople have retired. It is creating this interesting situation where a lot of the primaries are not you incumbent versus a new candidate. It's a lot of like open seats, which usually brings really interesting party dynamics into play. Let's talk about the Republican side of stuff. President Trump is obviously the establishment here. By definition, he's the president, and he still seems to have a pretty firm grip on his party but is also facing really low approval ratings countrywide at this point. What are we noticing about how Republican candidates are dealing with that Well, I think the big theme around Trump is just the rock solid hold he has on the Republican Party. He's had win after win in Republican primaries, mostly in red districts or states when he's endorsed a candidate and he has defeated or causeed to retire several sitting Republican members of Congress, which is really unusual, and it's caused no little amount of angst among Republican senators But what I'm interested in seeing is whether that plays out in the general election. Is it possible that Trump could be supporting candidates who are better in a primary than in a general? We'll find that out. But the other thing about him is he will be eighty years old very, very soon and he's not on the ballot. And he is very unpopular. And I think for Democrats to run against Republicans saying you're just a rubber stamp for this corrupt, self dealing president We'll see if that theme plays out in that way But even though Trump has had almost a perfect record, not a completely perfect record, almost a perfect record in terms of endorsing Republicans inside primaries, one thing he was not willing to do was to endorse a candidate running against Susan Collins in Maine. Susan Collins is right now the only senator up for re election who voted to convict in the Senate after he was impeached in the House. Normally, that has caused Trump to go on a real retribution tear against that senator. But he has endorsed Susan Collins. It's a blue state. He's not willing to lose this. Yeah. So even Trump's desesires for retribution and revenge have limits. Yeah. I feel like that Charlie Day meme from Al suunny in Philadelphia where he's like looking at a whiteboard and he's got a crazy look in his eyes and all of the pins and lines go everywhere. because Yeah, I think Mara's point is so important because Trump is the establishment. His endorsement goes a long way as we've seen. but it's fascinating because Trump built his political career on being the outsider on wanting to drain the so called swamp. and like we've seen him clash with folks like Collins. And so to see that like odd balance that he has to play is really striking. And it's also just confusing because there are divides within the MAGA movement and You know, and they just look different. and they're still being like kind of characterized under those same sort of establishment rejection of longtime norms labels. I mean, I'm thinking about there's a faction of the MAGA movement that's been growing more and more dissatisfied with Trump's handling of the war in Iran or the Epstein files, you know, the so called maybe America first versus MAGA. We've seen some candidates paint Trump as the establishment and frame it in that narrative and to varying degrees of success. Obviously, someone like Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massey has aligned more so with that, you know America First movevement and he lost to a Trump backed all So it's complicated, but I do think it's interesting that there's multiple definitions of establishment on the Republican side. There's the Republican in name only Rinao anti Trump more has you know traditionally seen that way in the last decade. And then there n of wh themom are running this cycle. Right or have been voted out now. other side of the anti establishment, which sees Trump as the establishment. Butar I'll clear up a little of the confusion. He wants to win. Yeah more than that. He does want to retaliate and take revenge. You just toeraceing my wife He wants to win. and in Maine, Susan Collins is the only way he can win the Senate race. If you look at these endorsements, a lot of them were endorsements that were made early. He's picking the candidate that was already ahead of the polls. Even when it looks like an insurgency campaign, a good example is I saw a house race in Nevada where he went against the party, the state party pick and chose the more insurgent candidate. but that candidate an exception to that. Yeah, Texas Right. Because in Texas, it was not clear who was the stronger candidate in the Republican primary John Cornan or Ken Paxton. Now there are many people who thought Cornan would be better. He wasn't saddled with all of the baggage that Paxton had. But in the end, you could argue that Trump went with his MAGA gut because Paxton was much more of a Trump fan early on, Cornan was definitely an establishment figure who definitely supported Trump in almost every way, but not as fervently or as early as Paxton did And in the end, as we've talked about one of these themes, he endorsed Paxton and The Gy won by Curvature of the Earth Well, we talked about a lot of people resigning, but there are also several incumbents who are losing their seats because of the mid decade redistricting battle that started last year at the hest of Donald Trump. And we have seen this play out in nearly a dozen states at this point. How does that change things? Well, I think one of the things we're seeing this year is this clash between two forces for organic public opinion, the economy, the enthusiasm of one party versus another on all of those organic Thces the Democrats have an advantage. Then the clashing force is structural elements like extreme partisan redistricting, mid cycle redistricting, very unusual. Lots and lots of money. We've never had as big financial disparity between campaign committees than we do this year. So the Republicans have tremendous structural advantages with which they hope to blunt these organic advantages for Democrats. So that's one of the themes. Republicans seem very confident about this that because of the gerrymandering they've done, that they have pretty much protected themselves against a democratic wave. That doesn't mean that Democrats might not still take the House, but if they take it, it's probably going to be by a very small margin. All right, we're going to take a quick break more in a moment. NPR's tiny desk can't come to you. I mean it's a desk, but the tiny desk contest tour can. New York City join NPR's tiny Dk contest winner, Cure for Paranoia at Warsaw this july ninth. It's all the NPR tiny Dk energy minus the office furniture Get your tickets now at tinydktour. org Each story you hear on Planet Money starts with a question What happens if we refund tariffs Why are groceries so expensive At NPR, we stand for your right to be curious because the forces shaping our world can be hard to zep. Follow NPR's planet money wherever you get your podcast and start seeing how the economy really works There have been some fantastic movies released this year, and we know you can't see them all. So we're recommending some great films that might have flown under the radar to add to your watch list. Listen to Pop Culture Hay Hour via the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. And Allena, I want tona start with you again. So the war in Iran has resulted in really high prices across the board. and the high cost of living is a real issue for many voters, in many cases, their top issues. How is this playing out in the battle over who controls Congress? And how are you seeing campaigns talk about this? Yeah, well, think peopleeople are divided on like nearly every issue right now. But what I've found talking to voters is the issue that unites most people is Economic populism or specifically this concern around their own economic well beinging and looking for support. And I think that has translated into different versions of economic populism on the campaign trail. F Democrats, you see it, you know we've talked a lot about Platner, but that's his message. It's all this push on that the government needs to help you out of the hole that you're in And I think it's also been really interesting to watch James Talorico in a very different state like Texas, the Democratic Senate nominee going up against Ken Paxton. I think I've said this before, but James Talorico literally took out an ad at the Super Bowl. In that ad says he's against corporations and big money in politics at the Super Bowl, which is probably like the most capitalist moment. And I just think you can't really find a more mainstream like message of this populism than Super Bowl. Yeah. Look, the economy is the number one issue here. Yes, affordability has been talked to death, They're not poor, they're broke. Yeah. They can't afford their lifestyle And this is true for fair number of Republicans, they're not happy with Trump's handling of the economy. They don't like the war in Iran either, which they connect to the economy. But the interesting thing and the trend that we're waiting to see emerge is will does that mean they won't vote for Republican candidates h, we don't know that There's a lot of dissatisfaction among the electorate. People are angry, they're sour There's definitely buyer's remorse among some voters who voted for Trump We don't know if they're ready to take the next step, which is to vote for a Democrat because Democrats are very unpopular. I mean, it seems like we've all, you know, you guys talk to voters in your focus groups. and when I do callbacks for our poll, like, how many times do you hear a Republican say, I'm going to give Trump six more months? I mean it's so this is such a loyal base and it's going to take a lot for this coalition that Trump has built over a decade to really break with him. But like we've said, this really is top of mind for so many people. It's so hard to square how bad the Democratic brand is with some groups of voters when you're watching special elections, like even primary elections, like the Democratic base winning Yeah. They keep winning but a midterm general election electorate is different than the people who turn out for special elections. And there's no doubt that Democrats have a real winning streak among special elections We don't know if that's going translate to a normal midterm. Yeah. I want to talk about the audiences for economic populism, though back to that, Alina. I mean, is this you said this kind of cuts across, I would always assume this would be like younger voters, more progressive voters, but do you think like this has a broader appeal in the American electorate now? Well, I guess I should kind of I think in most of the reporting I've done, economic concerns are the uniting issue. I think when it comes to the solutions a lot of young people are more likely to entertain this idea of like Let's tear it down and try something new or let's make big change. And you know, you hear that on both sides of the aisle where people have grown up only seeing systems that they believe have not worked for them. I mean, we've talked about this a lot before. The cost of housing is vastly outpacing wages or you job insecurity is still rampant among younger folks. And I think that to mention fear of AI. AI job apocalypse But I think that because this is an issue that's deeply, so generationally personal, we have seen it really hit home for a lot of young people. And I think that's why some of the messages out of twenty twenty four, I think back to what I used to always hear at turning pointint conferences, the conservative youth group, the late right wing activist, Charlie Kirk, used to always say, we want to give you a better life than your parents Because that simple message is one that goes a long way. and it's one we hear now replicated on the campaign trail all the time. Meaning people don't think they're going to get that. Right Eactly. That's the big thing. Young people do not believe they will do as well or better than their parents. That is the essence of the American dream. And when that disappears for a whole generation of particularly college educated young people That is something to really watch because I think the implications could be very destabilizing. Yeah. And how are we seeing campaigns deal with this pessimism? Like Are you seeing any sort of standout? the Republicans are saying, look, we gave you a tax cut, or we gave your parents a tax cut. But the college educated working class is a phenomenon that I think we all should be paying a lot of attention to. These are people who did exactly what they were told to do. If you work hard, get an education graduate from college, you will be in the middle class. and that is falling apart Are there any campaigns you're seeing, Elena that you think are grappling with? I mean, you mentioned turning pointint, but are there any candidates who like come to mind? You know, we've given a lot of specific examples about Democrats really harping on this. And it is kind of easier to do that when you're not the party in power. I mean that's what we saw Republicans do in twenty twenty four, right? But I do think, especially as I track younger leaders, younger candidates I think about this push that I'm even hearing among some on the right running to kind of