Political Scandals and Midterm Outlook

NPR's tiny desk can't come to you. I mean it's a desk, but the tiny desk contest tour can New York City join NPR's tiny desk contest winner, Cure for Paranoia at Warsaw this july ninth. It's all the NPR Tiny Dk ennerergy minus the office furniture Get your tickets now at tinydesktour. org Hey there, It's the MPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks And this is Coreory, a swing voter from Wisconsin talking about Iran We essentially got nothing out of it. It's hurt our economy and increased expenses for the everyday American and it accomplished the square root of nothing. A new poll out today finds most voters are not happy with President Trump right now. We're going to hear from some of those voters as part of our monthly swing voter check in. I'm here with political correspondents, Ashley Lopez and Mara Liason. Hi guys. Hey, hi there So Ashley, the voters we're going to hear from today are voters who voted for Joe Biden in twenty twenty, Donald Trump in twenty twenty four. What else can you tell us about these people? Yeah, besides the fact that they are all from Wisconsin, it's thirteen voters that we talked to, two people identified as Democrats. There was one Republican and ten independents. And these focus groups, by the way, were conducted by messaging and market research firms and Gages and SegGo, they partner with us as part of the Sing voter project And compared to last month, let's say, like this was a little less conservative of a group because it was like You know, we had a couple of Democrats and mostly independent voters, which are a really interesting group to hear from Well also just to point out, Wisconsin is a bluer battleground stace. but also just to set the stage and we give this disclaimer every time This is not a poll, it's a focus group. So it's not statistically significant. But it does tell us the why, Would the polls tell us how people feel about certain issues, but focus groups let us delve a little deeper into the why Well and today's so interesting too, because we do have a new poll from MPR, PBS News, and Marist that adds a little bit color to all the things we're going to be talking about today. But the big headline number is that These are the worst approval numbers that we have seen for President Trump in either term at this point. and that is driven by a thirty three percent approval rating specifically on how he handles the economy. feels really striking considering this is somebody who campaigned on the idea of bringing back economic prosperity and that kind of implied that that inflation and the economy were going to be huge priorities. for him How did these voters talk about those issues? I mean, it's the thing they're most upset about. And I think it's trickling down into their overall perception of how Trump is doing. Let's hear from a voter. B the way, we're only going to be referring to them by their first name. That's like the condition in which they participated in these focus groups. So Josh K, I think is a pretty good representation of how a lot of these voters felt. It seems to me like pick your issue and things are not going well for him. I mean, we got this stupid war in Iran and it turns out that we actually aren't getting anything out of it. I mean All we got was Four dollar gas I mean, what about real world impacts in terms of the economy on I understand obviously gas impacts people. But one of the things that struck me also in the poll that was out today is that Roughly half of Americans say they're not going to take a vacation this summer and a lot of them cite cost for a reason. Did you guys hear about any of the like specific impacts, I guess of some of these economic concerns? Absolutely. And what's interesting about this is it's yeah, it's not just gas prices. These are middle class people. These are people who are not poor. they're broke and our moderator, Rich Taow, who you'll hear in this next bit asked our fooccus group members what specifically they've had to give up Josh, what have you had to give up streaming subscriptions Corey. eating out for me and my family, not as much for cooking at home a lot more often Robin I had to raise all my deductibles on everything, my car insurance, my health insurance to lower my premiums. Okay. And Jaylyen Yeah, I've given all my extracurricular hobbies U And then a lot of my subscriptions I've cut out along with my daily coffee My, what have you had to give up? I have an addictions to getting my hair done. You to give of getting your hair done? Yes. Wendy, what about you and you're muted? Vacations and other luxury purchases. Yes I mean, it's striking that, I mean, vacations probably came up the most and that makes sense. It's a big ticket item. L that would be the first thing to cut if like things are really dire. But yeah, I mean having to cut recreational activities, like that's the kind of thing that I'll really like r I was going to say I say it's not like these are basically all the things that bring people joy are the things that we're talking about cutting here. Of course people are feeling frustrated. I mean, vacations too, Th are the things that take the edge off. And if you're frustrated with the economy, if you're frustrated with a war that you thought, you know, the country wasn't going to get into, you know, it makes a ton of sense that a lot of these independent voters and I think that's important to st here. I mean, with the poll is reflecting is what we've been seeing for a while now which That for the most part, Trump's base is holding steady with him, but it's these independent voters that have been wildly swinging away from him. Yeah. And also it shows you that it's not just gas prices. This is inflation that is probably going to take a lot longer to come down than just the price at the pump. And the election is right around the corner Well and it kind of gets to this bigger thing. The vacations are a great example of that. They're a big ticket item, but I do feel like they fit into the broader kind of idea of middle class life of feeling like you are living a life that you hoped you would live What else other than the economy, I guess do these people have to say about President Trump's job performance? What struck me is just how bitter they were about him And how much populism is really what our politics is right now. They're cynical about politics. They're resentful against the establishment and politicians and rich people. and they now see Trump as a rich person. So I think voters are in a very sour mood and populism is on the left and the right. Trump used to be a beneficiary of that But now he's seen as part of the problem Yeah, I mean, these were voters who are not squarely left or right. I mean, a lot of them kind of switch between the two. I mean, some of them, yes, identify as Democrats, others as Republicans, But like the one Republican in this group, Jayalen, I mean, she had a lot of populist sentiments. like she does not sound like straight up like an old timey conservative would Well, so this focus group this week. Being convened, right as news was coming out about a big news item that could impact the economy that's going to impact the economy, whether the Iran war is coming to a close. In previous focus groups, we've heard a lot of frustration from these type of swing voters about the Iran war I have to imagine that these voters were probably feeling pretty good about the fact that the Iran warar was coming to a close because of that or what was what was the vibe Well, it was interesting to me that there wasn't a huge sigh of relief and some kind of gratitude toward President Trump for ending it. These are people who don't think it was worth it. They were asked that question. Now that the ceasefire seems to be being extended, Was it worth it? No. They said, all we got was four dollars gas They seem to connect the war in Iran with higher prices At one point, Tammy said that the war to her was just the American people having to suffer through the tantrums of two countries playing tug of war, She said, I just don't think it was fair to the American people The war is very unpopular and for For many reasons, but the most basic reason is that President Trump campaigned against foreign wars. and our voters brought that up several times. This is why they voted for him because they thought he wasn't gonna to do this Yeah, that comes up pretty much in every panel, which is like I thought we weren't getting into any more foreign wars. You know, and Mara has actually brought this up before. likeike you have to remember, Trump didn't do anything to pitch this war to voters. And I talked to Rich Tao, he's the president of Enggages and he moderated these focus groups. He said, you know, I've been talking to voters for months about this. They didn't like it at the beginning. They didn't like it in the middle and yeah, to at the end, they don't like it either. when even when it looks like things are going to wrap up And a part of that is because people don't think like This is ending well One of these voters Sam, he said that he actually thinks like the deal that Obama had years ago was much better. The Straight of Muse was open before and now during the war was close for a short time And then also in the in the deal, it's speculated that there won't be any type of regulation of the nuclear facilities or any kind of inspection which with the previous deal with President Obama, there had to be inspections routinely to receive the money that was guaranteed So what Sam is talking about is the lack of detail in the memorandum of understanding about exactly what is going to happen in those sixty days or after those sixty days? Will there be inspections required? The memorandum of Understanding doesn't say anything about them. That's what Sam is talking about. But these voters clearly think the deal does not make the war in Iran worth it. That's a pretty informed voter. Yeah. I'll say that.'s a pretty informed voter, but also it shows you how hard it's going to be for Trump to sell this deal as a great deal There's been a chorus of foreign policy experts And now ordinary voters seem to understand the same thing. And it seems to It's not just, oh, gas prices go down by fifty cents or sixty cents, that everyone's just going to be happy go lucky, it seems like. And also that's not easy to achieve. I mean, some experts have said it'll take a while to get back to three dollar gas. And if that's the metric that people are using of whether the economy is working for them, that's one thing. But also from my perception of like what I've been hearing from voters is that economic anxieties are deeper than three dollar gas. I mean, we just heard all the things that people have been having a Like digging yourself out of a financial holdle takes a lot of time and gas will help. But I wonder how optimistic people will feel about an economy if just one small thing changes Let's take a quick break and more on this focus group in just a moment. This week on Shorewave, working from home is popular. No commute, sweatpants. People who do it say it makes them happier. And the data suggests they're probably wrong about that. On average, at least. We unpack a new study about the social isolation of remote work and what it means for your health This week on Shortwave, NPR science podcast, listen daily on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts There have been some fantastic movies released this year, and we know you can't see them all. So we're recommending some great films that might have flown under the radar to add to your watch list Listen to pop Culture Hayour via the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. NPR's newest podcast is where you can find NPR's biggest interviews. I'm Steve Inskpe. The program is called Newsmakers. We talk with some of the most powerful and influential people at this moment. Real questions to them and push for real answers Follow newsmakers on the NVR app or any podcast player or you can watch on NPR's YouTube channel and we're back. So This summer is the summer of America two hundred fifty, the nation's two hundred fiftieth birthday. We just had this big spectacle of a UFC fight on the White House lawn to celebrate that as well as President Trump's birthday I know that these swing voters were asked about all of this. Mara, what did they say Well, they were asked specifically if they had a birthday message for the president. And here's what some of them said Happy birthday, mrter. President. what are you doing to ensure that when we get to the age that you are that we're gonna have the America that we grew up learning about? I would have said I would have bought you a cake, but I can't afford one, but happppy birthday. It must have really ft good to be able to do whatever you want on your birthday America doesn't have that luxury, but He is Yeah, I mean, there's some pretty frustrated populist sentiment there. I think this was a pretty striking part of this conversation because we had been hearing people talk about you how frustrated they are with the economy. By the way, I think compared to a lot of other focus groups that we've had, this is like twelve blame President Trump for higher prices right now, which hasn't been consistent throughout. A lot of people still blamed President Biden and his administration. But we're at at least these Wisconsin voters, which by the way, not scientific, but this group of people largely blamed, almost except for one blames Trump for the situation that they're in now. So to see this UFC fight and all the money being spent to celebrate, you know, the country, but also Trump himself personally because he has conflated the two. this was a very striking part of the conversation It does seem a little odd to me that these are people who voted for President Trump and they seem I don't know if it's surpriseed. I mean, this is somebody everyone knew he was very wealthy. He likes big spectacles. I don't know. there are sometimes in these focus groups, we hear things and I'm kind of like is this I don't know if I fully understand the frustration or the surprise considering It doesn't seem that surprising to me about any. Well you don' stay in and day And these are swing voters. That means that they voted for Biden. They were open minded, and they thought that maybe Trump would do better on the economy I don't think that they think about every little aspect of Donald Trump's personality when they do this. These are not hardcore Trump supporters, These are swing voters. And also, I feel like things would be different if they felt more economically secure. You're not so worried about what someone else is up to, which by the way, Trump has enriched himself a lot while in office. That you know even if you're a sort of moderate consumer of news, you will see how much richer Trump has gotten since he's been in office or at least his family has And so you know if you are economically less anxious, you're not as concerned with the monetary situation of the people around you, but the reason we're hearing a lot of populism is because people are stressed. People are really pessimistic about the economy, their financial future. And so this is like a powder keg for this kind of situation. Well, in previous focus groups, that economic anxiety has really come up when it comes to artificial intelligence. Do that come up again here with these voters in Wisconsin Yes, it did. And we've been focusing on artificial intelligence. It's a big issue. It's a bipartisan issue. Data centers are very unpopular. And we did ask voters about this, and we had a very interesting personal story from Robin. Guess what? I worked for a data center F yearsars Lead director recruiter and recruiting came in, AI came in and took my job. So yeah, absolutely. I'm worried. I've seen it. My entire team got laid off. They felt that AI could do the job for you know a lot quicker for a lot less money. That brings it home pretty much. She worked for a data center and AI replaced her and took her job. I mean, people are very, very worried about the job killing aspects of AI Yeah, and then the cost of data centers has come up pretty much every single time we've talked about this with voters. They're concerned that their energy bills are going to go up. Water consumption from these data centers is going to be an issue for them personally. It's one of the things we hear the most often. And if you know, every and then of course there's the layoffs. That is an economic pressure down the road. So a lot of people are feeling pressure right now and they feel Like there's this existential pressure coming from the other direction. So I mean, yeah, I mean, AI is one of those issues where people have pretty strong feelings about it and I just I don't think it's like going to go away. Yeah, and then you would lay on top of that the sort of populist anger of like seeing Elon Musk become the first world's first trillionaire, right at the same the same week. Yeah, we had one voter say like he is observing how much political power there is behind this push to get AI out there One other trend that we've been talking about on the pod a lot the last couple of weeks is political scandal with everything that the Democratic candidate for Senate in Maine, Graham Platinner that has come out I feels like every week the last couple weeks and also Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee in Texas who has dealt with his own personal scandals for the last few years. How are these voters talking about political scandal? I mean, because there's pessimism writt large about America, I would say, like I wasn't surprised to hear that there's still pessimism about candidates and about politicians. I mean Across the board when asked, like, do you think like most politicians have skeletons in their closet? everyveryone raised their hands? prettyty much. I think there were maybe a few people who didn't, but across the board, this is a shared sentiment. So a lot of the sentiment was like, we're not totally shocked when scandal comes out. And then one person that we heard from, his name is Kenny, he said that he's actually less interested in sort personal lives and personal scandals of politicians. and he says like he's primarily focused on policy It's important u that we understand what they're trying to do and not just their personality or, you know opinions, you know what I mean? Like our opinion shouldn't matter so much of them Um Mas focusing on what they're really trying to do. You know, and what they can get done Yeah. And when it comes to Graham Platner, one of the focus group members had an interesting take on that situation in particular because he feels like there's a lot of younger people running now. and I think Graham Platner is considered one of some of the younger people running. He said, Look I think like a lot of people are going to have some baggage, particularly digital scandals. It isn't necessarily true for me, but I think it's true for a lot of people my age that everybody has done and said things online or just un unsaid things in general that they grew out of or regret or didn't mean or whatever the case may be. and in Graham Platner's case, he took responsibility for the things that he's done There's absolutely no indication that he continues to hold those beliefs. So if voters are hearing a message that they like and from a person they like, I think we're learning that there's actually quite a bit of wiggle room that candidates have to, you know, say They're sorry, say they're changed, you know, they give a redemption arc of some kind, and voters are going to stick with them for the most part And I say this really is that partisanship is so strong Yeah that People are willing to forgive scandals with the candidate of their own party and they'll hold the other guy to a higher standard And that's where we're at now. Are there any other takeaways, I guess from this focus group? I know early in the year as we've been doing these, it's been like, we don't really know how this is going to impact midtermss yet. It's too soon to say It's June so I'm going to start asking in terms of how how you guys