Redistricting and Future Political Strategy

Hi, it's Terry Gross, host of Fresh Air. Hey, take a break from the twenty four hour news cycle with us and listen to long form interviews with your favorite authors, actors, filmmakers, comedians, and musicians The people making the art that nourishes us and speaks to our times. So listen to the Fresh Air podcast from NPR and WHYY Hey there, it's the MPR Politics podcast. I'm Miles Parks, I cover voting I'm Stehven Fowler. I cover politics. And I'm actually Lopez and I also cover politics. And we are recording today at one ten PM Eastern time on Wednesday, june seventeenth, twenty twenty six. Today on the show, key election results in Georgia. The state's Senate and governor's races are now set after yesterday's primary elections For President Trump, the results were mixed Stehven, I want to start with the Republican primary runoff in the governor's race. Who are the candidates and how did this race unfold So Miles, Georgia Gonor Brian Kemp is term limited. The race to replace him was wide open. You had several of the state's top officials running for the Republican nomination, but the runoff was between Lieutenant goovernor Bertt Jones and Rick Jackson, a billionaire healthcare executive outsider who jumped into the race last minute and has spent one hundred million dollars plus of his own money on this race. And ultimately, that was one of the reasons where Jackson prevailed, even though Trump endorsed Bird Jones, the lieutenant governor. Brian Kemp endorsed Bird Jones to be his replacement. But when all was said and done, Republican runoff voters in Georgia This billionaire healthcare executive who said that he would be President Trump's favorite governor and would govern in the mold of Brian Kemp and spent nine figures to convince people of that Yeah, I feel like both me and Ashley's faces when you said one hundred million dollars were like that is just so much money. So Jackson's going to face Keisha Lance bottoms in the November election, but I want to focus here specifically on Trump's endorsed candate losing Ashley, what do you make of this? because it feels like we've talked a lot this year about the power Trump holds in Republican primaries, but this seems to go against that. Yeah, I mean, if you look at some of the Republican gubernatorial races, like the primaries there have been like the only places where a little bit of Trump's power seems to crack. We saw this in Iowa as a good example recently I mean, a lot of this has to do with the fact that like People have view state leadership differently than they view Washington. They maybe have like a more independent streak when it comes to who they want to be their leadership in the state. And if you think of how the Trump two, this second term has been going, like governorships are where Lawmakers really have been pulling a lot of weight in blue states and fighting against the president. So it is interesting that this is where you know, the party seems to have a little bit more of an independent streak. I don't know what to make of it, but it is interesting And it's also important to point out here that the biggest loser is Brian Kemp backed Burt Jones at the last minute. And so There could be a world in which that last minute boost would be enough to put Jones over the top. actuallyually in election day votes, Jones did better, but waiting until the last minute, backing the losing horse, so to speak, does not look good, especially when you think about Kemp's pick in the Senate race, which I know we're going to talk about in a few minutes also losing I want to stick with Jackson just for a second more because this idea that he spent one hundred million dollars promoting himself. And it seems to have worked does also cut against something we've talked about on the podcast a bunch in the last couple of years. I feel like. just this feeling that like having a bunch of money doesn't necessarily translate to votes. I think we saw this a little bit in California with Tom Steyr not making the top two in that state's governor's race recently this this does seem to be a situation, Stephven where money did matter. What do you make of that? Well as you know, live in Atlanta. I receive about a metric ton of campaign mail basically every week for the past ten years here in Georgia. and it was just stunning the scope and scale of what was received. probablyroably for every one campaign mailer that I would receive for any candidate for any race, you know, governor, Senate, down to city cououncil. Maybe for every one of those candidates, there was two or three just for Rick Jackson. You turn the TV on, every other ad was about Rick Jackson. You have YouTube or streaming ads, Rick Jackson. I mean, he blanketed the entire state with this message that he was a billionaire outsider who had a business background and conservative principles, and it kind of sounded like this guy named Donald Trump. I don't know if you've heard of him. And it was really effective too because Burt Jones, the lieutenant governor, he has a bit of a more controversial past. He was very involved in the efforts to overturn Georgia's twenty twenty election, but also didn't really campaign much or in the same way And so, you know, yes, in California, Tom Styer spent a lot of money, but California is a big state. There's a lot of people running. There's a lot of money to be spent I mean, we're looking at two different audiences here. There is a big difference between a primary in Dep Blue California versus a Republican primary in Georgia These are just different groups of voters with different concerns. They know most definitely look at billionaires differently, like you know how they relate to you the income inequality in this country is very different if you're talking about a more left leaning electorate in California versus a more conservative group of voters in Georgia. Well we also talk about how runoffs usually have Sightly lower turnout than a primary election and then a lot lower than a general election. I guess I wonder whether the money goes further in a race like that where it's just a smaller pool that you're trying to influence too I don't know definitelyso well, that means it's also a more conservative group of people. It's the ideologs in the runoffs and in the primaries and like the smaller that group of voters gets, particularly in runoffs, the more ideological they get Well, let's turn to the GOP Senate race now, Stephen. where Trump and Gvernor Kampp actually endorse different candidates. Tell us about what happened there. The winner is Cgressman Mike Collins. His father was a congressman. Collins is this sort of prototypical MAGA congressman. He's very aggressive and brash online and in interviews and in campaign ads. He's very big on supporting Trump's immigration policies. He actually sponsored the Lincoln Rilly Act, which is one of the first things that Trump signed when he returned to office He is everything you would expect a Trump endorsed candidate to be. and that was ultimately what ended up happening there. He beat Derek Dooley, a former football coach and friend and ally of Brian Kemp. And part of the logic and rationale there for Dooley's portion of the race is to compete against John Ossoff in a year that is not favorable for Republicans to have a more moderate electable outsider in the race. And that is not what happened in the runoff here. And so if you look at it from the outside, it might seem strange. based on having the more moderate electable governor candidate and the less moderate, more ideologically pure candidate in the Senate race. But those two are not incompatible with kind of how the Georgia Republican electorate is right now I want to look ahead to this November race, which I think is going to be something we're going to be talking about a lot for the next few months between Democratic Senator, incumbent Senator John Ossoff who's been able now to get a head start on campaigning because he didn't have to deal with the primary. while Republicans have basically been bashing each other for the last couple of months This is a key race if Republicans want to keep control of the Senate. Worth noting again here, President Trump won Georgia in twenty twenty four very recently Any thoughts on which way this race is leaning at this point? Well, I mean, most experts, including the C pololitical report would say this is leaning towards Democrats keeping this seat. John Ossoff has been polling very well. and mostly because, you know, he's been able to cus on a general election while the Republicans have been battling it out in a primary and then a runoff. But also, you know, we did a focus group with swing voters in Georgia recently and voters there, you know, those who did know who John Ossof is, they had like pretty decent opinions about him pretty good opinions. L so he he's seen fairly well there Th those are Tump voters and those are voter for Trump Swing voters and more independent leaning voters, which is, you know part of that electorate that is changing from year to year in Georgia, like the people who are deciding elections, like those are the kind of voters that we're looking at. And so I think that's interesting. You know, And it's been kind of interesting to see all the clips that are coming out of that. There's you know, it's gotten to the point where there's even a little bit of twenty twenty eight chatter because he's like just has a little bit of shine on him right now. ow up usually I do kind of feel like John Osv's had a little bit of a glow up. He's having a little bit of a moment. lookook, twenty twenty eight is very far away. This happens a lot, right? It' like, ooh, is this person like maybe going to run? like I mean there's there's a lot of variables there. but yeah, he is well positioned to keep that seat Stephven, what are your thoughts on that race looking ahead This is a little bit of a conundrum. The more John Osaso focuses on winning his twenty twenty six Senate reelection campaign, the more people talk about twenty twenty eight If you look at what Asssof has done, he keeps his head down, he focuses on his Senate oversight responsibilities. The things that he drills down on is what he calls corruption and sort of holding the Trump administration accountable to things very focused on constituent services. You don't see him popping up on a lot of cable TV shows or podcasts or There's no books or policy manifestos or things. He is just locked in on winning Georgia in twenty twenty six. And the more he does that, the more attention he gets for twenty twenty eight because of the things he's saying resonate with a broader Democratic audience. I think the other thing to consider and think about is John Ossoff were to run for president in twenty twenty eight, the governor of Georgia would appoint a replacement. So there has to be a Democratic governor in Georgia. He has to help Keisha Lance Bottoms get elected to even move to that phase of the conversation. otherwise you could have a multiple time hard fought Senate seat for Democrats that could go pretty easily to a Republican. But the real secret is he's not the Georgia senator that is most likely to be on the presidential ticket in twenty twenty eight from where I s. You're talking about Senator Raphael Warnock then. Talk about Senator Raphael Warnock, who will also be on the ballot in twenty twenty eight, who also won several hard wought elections and who also has a pretty compelling national story that he is using to be head down focused on what's going on in the state. Yeah, he's doing a book tour in the middle of John Osops A Senate campaign. He's making sure he's not out of the mix. I will say like I think the benefit to Democrats of having someone like Osoft talking about corruption and affordability, all the things that Democrats want to be focused on is that he is a young, telegenic man. and right now, Democrats just need to be signaling to voters like, hey, we're still in this, please still consider us when you vote. whether or not it's, you know for the for the upcoming midterms or the presidential election in twenty twenty eight, I think like Candidates like this are helpful for Democrats. All right, let's take a quick break and more Georgia politics in just a moment You know, every day on U first NPR's Golden Globe nominated Morning newews podcast, we bring you three essential stories. At the heart of each story Our questions, what really happened It really mattered what happens next. At NPR, we stand for your right to be curious and to follow the facts. Follow up first wherever you get your podcasts and start your day knowing what matters and why NPR's newest podcast is where you can find NPR's biggest interviews I'm Steve Inskepe. The program is called Newsmakers. We talk with some of the most powerful and influential people of this moment Put real questions to them and push for real answers Follow newsmakers on the NVR app or any podcast player or you can watch on NPR's YouTube channel For three weeks in twenty twenty, part of my Seattle neighborhood was taken over by a protest occupation. We were here to protest police brutality. But it ended in tragedy. The whole space felt darker and angrier. Join me as I investigate the unsolved killing of sixteen year old Antonio Mays junior Listen to We Keep U Sfe on the embedded podcast from NPR. And and welcome back. So sticking with Georgia politics, today is the first day of a special legislative session in the state. This is a closely watched session because it could have a big impact on how people vote there. Stehen, what can you tell us? So Miles, once upon a time, there was the twenty twenty election. Oh God It's groundhog Day. We're still talking about the twenty twenty election. Georgia narrowly went for former President Joe Biden, as you know. President Trump tried to overturn the defeat, as you know. And there have been myriad efforts over the years to find different ways to rectify that in the eyes of Trump supporting Republicans One of the things that they did a few years ago in the Georgia legislature was to pass a bill saying that at some time in the future, july first, twenty twenty six, it will be illegal to use Georgia's current configuration of voting machines where you use a touchscreen to make your selection, prints out a piece of paper that has the text of your choices and a QR code that QR code is scanned and that's how it's tabulated and uploaded, and we know who won the election Well, it's almost july first, twenty twenty six, and they haven't fixed it. The General Assembly has not appropriated money for a different system The Secretary of State's offffice and the General Assembly has not picked a new system, but the long and short of it from what I've been told is that the legislature is going to meet during the special session I've seen a draft of a bill where they're going to set up an election commission to deliver a report next year to fix the voting machinine situation by twenty twenty eight. So we are going to keep using the machines until somebody else figures out something down the road. I mean, Georgia, this is like a real test case for what happens when you write election policy based in conspiracy and you don't really know how elections work For so long, I mean, Miles we both have covered elections for a long time. It used to be just sort of nerdy experts, like a lot of technocratic knowledge that went into changing how elections are run and changing election policy. But because so much of election policy right now, especially in red states are being shaped by conspiracy theories, things rooted and not really like expert advice, stuff like this happens and it's like really I mean, this is a mess now that lawmakers have to clean up or at least for this summer kick the can down the road and figure out what to do with this law that they passed a little bit ago So I mean, it's a mess. And you know if it's confusing to read, imagine being an election administrator in Georgia right now. Well, and it's worth noting, I do think that like the average person might hear the idea of like my vote is in aQR code. Georgia also has one of the most advanced auditing processes in the entire country to be able to double check after the fact and make sure that the election results are what the computers initially calculated. And again, computers are much better at counting votes than humans are. Research has confirmed this time and time again. And so I just want to explain that for people who initially are like QR codes, that is kind of scary. So Stepehven, I guess how certain are people there that this is going to be resolved in time for the election to go off okay in twenty twenty six Well, there have been numerous court cases actually predating the twenty twenty election over Georgia's voting machines. And so it is the never ending story of Somebody doesn't like it. There's questions about it. It goes to the courts. The courts hear things, the courts maybe also kick things down the road. And so one thing is certain in Georgia. there will be an election in November and people will be able to vote in said election. and the system that Georgia has in place is safe and secure and tested and that like many other things The nuts and bolts of what is to come afterwards is a problem for a different day. Well, it is also striking, kind of what you were saying, Ashley about just how much twenty twenty still feels the twenty twenty election and President Trump's loss in Georgia still feels like it permeates the entire state's politics. It also came up in the Senate race, right? Stehven Yeah. onene of the reasons that Trump endorsed Mike Collins, the Cgressman over Derek Dooley, Kems pick, kind of dinged duelly and said, I've never heard of him. He didn't live in Georgia most of his life. He didn't vote in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen. Oh also he said I lost the twenty twenty election did lose the twenty twenty election despite the years of him saying otherwise. And so It is a prerequisite now to have Trump support to falsely claim that he won the twenty twenty election. And even six years later, even in a must win state for Republicans governance in the future, you have to acknowledge what Trump says the reality is about twenty twenty rather than the actual reality. Well, Trump hasn't let it go. He keeps on talking about it. As long as he talks about it, this is going to be an important talking point for every Republican nominee or candidate and it' going to be in the Republican agenda no matter what. So. Well, and it's worth noting, obviously Tump didn't really feel a penalty for continuing to talk about in twenty twenty four. he won the popular vote. But we've found that in down ballot races in races that aren't for the U. S. president, there has been in some cases, Republican underperformance in races when candidates have gone down the road of election nowial. Do you think that this could be a penalty, I guess, Ashley that like a candidate running for a U S. Senate in Georgia who thinks that the twenty twenty election was stolen. couldould that potentially hurt him with independent voters? or I don't know, you have any thoughts? I mean, I think there are other things that independent voters are more angry about. I hear about the you know, I hear from them every month. This does not come up every single time, but what still matters the most to every Republican candidate is that I Donald Trumps shine, because that is a thing that could make or break you The other thing with this special session, Stehven, is that Georgia was expected to redraw their congressional maps, not necessarily for twenty twenty six, but for twenty twenty eight. What's the latest there? Well, the latest just before we started taping this is a letter and a press conference by the Republican controlled House leadership that said thanks but no thanks. The gist of it was that The House prides itself on doing redistricting with public input and taking time and careful consideration. And so a rushed special session where there are no maps that have been released and there is no public comment, That's not on their agenda. There are other things like fixing the election bill, and there's some property tax and gas tax incentives that they are looking at handling So the door is closed for now asterisk on redrawing the maps for twenty twenty eight with the asterisk being if Kisha Landance Bottoms wins the Georgia G governor's race in November and would be in charge of any future map making process, then the legislature could come in after November in December and do it all again I feel like it'll be interesting to watch how President Trump takes this news then too, because we've seen in some places where states that have decided not to redistrict, he doesn't take it super well. Well, they made the decision after a primary because that's where Trump has the most. So they really I mean, this was a compromise to even consider it for twenty twenty eight, which is probably a smart move in Georgia Look, if you look at the states that have redistricted, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, these are deep red. Republican solidly Republican states Georgia is a swing state. It is Republican, but it is a swing state. And Republicans didn't want to gin up support and enthusiasm.