Foreign Policy Friction and Future Outlook

This is our glass. On this American life, one thing we like is a good mystery Sometimes about really big things But most times The little mysteries at the best. Our Lost and foundound is currently filled with pants. I don't know I've never seen this happen. This is true. This is true Mysteries of every size Each week this American life wherever you get your podcast Hey there, it's the NPR Politics podcast. I'm Tamer Keeeith. I cover politics. I'm Sam Greinglass, I cover Congress and I'm Frank Odonia, as I cover the White H. Tododay on the pod, tensions between President Trump and Senate Republicans are reaching a breaking point Sam, it seems that in short, the president wants something that the Senate can't give him, and it's creating all kinds of drama. Yeah, drama might be even a bit of an understatement here. President Trump really wants Congress to pass this legislation called the Save America Act. It's this strict voter ID law. It also includes a whole bunch of other controversial voting provisions But the thing you need to know about it is that it does not have sixty votes to pass the Senate to get around the Senate filibuster. So Trump has been trying to push the Senate to get rid of the filibuster and to also fire the Senate parliamentarian who has ruled that this could not be included as part of a party line vote that would only need fifty senators Trump also keeps trying to attach it to other pieces of legislation, including agenda items that he really wants. You know, just the other week, a last minute threat from Trump ended up holding up a vote on this party line bill to fund IC and border patrol that is crucial to Trump's own agenda. So this continued push keeps getting in the way of other stuff For someone who likes to look powerful as President Trump does Why is he pushing for something that Senate leaders say doesn't have the votes? This is how President Trump works. I mean, he is always, you know, pushing and pushing. I mean, whether it's a loyalty test, these are the things that he wants, these are the things that he's doing. and he's, you know, has always kind of bullied and bullied to get his wayress like so often has been unable to accomplish many of the things that he wants. and he either doesn't realize what Congress needs to do or what can do or he just doesn't care because he simply continues to push and make these expectations even when they can't, whether the votes are not there And that's why you always see him, you know calling for like the filibuster to be pushed out Republican Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, last week said Trump has two modes. He says he's a friend of the president, and he basically is either unengaged on a particular policy issue or he wants to move at the speed of light. And clearly, on this issue, the Sf of America Act, Trump wants the Senate to move at the speed of light. And they have not done that. This all brings us to last week and the nomination of Jay Clayton for the director of National Intelligence. And there was this Trump post gleefully throwing a wrench in the works to quote add a slight bit of intrigue, as he put it Frankco, can we just back up a bit and explain why this was such a big deal to Republican senators? Like how did we get to this J. Clayton thing? Yeah, I mean, it goes back to who Trump initially picked to replace Tulsi Gabbard in this role, Trump picked Bill Polty, who is right now still the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency very controversial character, very big Trump supporter, but he had no intelligence experience. None. And so many of the Republicans, obviously Democrats as well, but really did not feel like he was the right person for this job. It raised all sorts of concern, considering how much important work role is And like you said, I mean, Trump I think this is just kind of another example of how this president just puts, you know people who are loyal to him, put his own people into roles that don't have the requisite experience that is needed for these roles, certainly not the requisite experience that these members of Congress, including these senators felt it was necessary Trump to appease Republican senators announces that he is nominating Jay Clayton to be the long term director of National intntelligence. The Senate then ious to get him a confirmation hearing to basically get him confirmed Be before Pulty can do too much damage as they see it. Yeah, Senate majority Leader John Thoe thought they had a plan here to confirm Clayton and then in turn extend Section seven hundred two of FISA, which had just expired. Democrats had been threatening to withhold their votes from this reauthorization Unless Bill Polty got poulled as the acting director of National intntelligence. So they had this plan coming together and then it gets blown up by Trump literally in the middle of the night. Yeah, Trump posted that trrue social post saying that Republicans fell into the trap. And as you kind of pointed out to him, he did kind of do it in this gleeful way, you know saying this at a slight bit of intrigue I mean, this is what Trump does. He really leans into the drama and kind of leans into the entertainment value when doing this. I mean, it was just kind of fascinating that blowing up this deal that John Thun had reached was kind of fun to him. And then as if this wasn't complicated enough He says he's not going to sign this FISA foreign intntelligence Surveillance Act renewal that Republicans in the Senate want? He's not going to sign it until they pass the Save America Act Which is gets us back to where we started. Yep, the Save America Act is back part of this latest dust up to. And you know, the reaction was really swift from Senate Republicans. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska compared the situation to startled sled dogs. If some big distraction, like a moose comes through and you got half the team going over here and half the team going over here It is And then what that musher has to do is he's got to stop and spend all of his time untangling this mess. So if you didn't pick up on the analogy here, the moose would be President Trump in this situation, and the mushher is Senate Majority leadeader, John.. Thank you for explaining analy. Yeah, I definitely needed that coming from the South. And then you know, even after all of this blowback though, from Senate Republicans, Trump doubled down again on social media saying that the Republican Party will never win another election I will sadly be the last Republican president, Senate majority Leer John Thune, and the Republican Senate must not let this carnage happen something he has said many, many times before, let's just know justust to be clear. So Franco It almost sounds like the president doesn't fully understand how the Senate works or how many votes are needed or that maybe not all Republicans actually support the Save America Act. Yeah. I mean, I'm not sure if he understands how it works or if he just doesn't care. I mean, he has been railing on the Senate since returning to office. He did it in his first term always, as Sam was talking about, feels like it's moving too slow and not taking the actions that he wants to take. This This is why you see so many executive orders by this president ever since the beginning because he wants to take as much power as he can as he has shown that with the executive orders that give him more and more power power At the same time, the House has kind of handed over a lot more power to him. and he wants that same kind of power by the Senate. Yeah, And I think part of this goes into the relationship that Senate Majority Leer John Thoon has with the president versus the relationship that House Speaker Mike Johnson has Johnson is pretty much willing to go along with what Pident Trump wants. whereereas Senate Majority Leader John Thoon, who has this really narrow majority in a chamber where you got to get sixty votes to accomplish most pieces of legislation, Thoon is often in the position of having to tell the president no. And there aren't a lot of Republicans in Washington or anywhere who tell President Trump no. So Sam, how would you describe the relationship between Thon and President Trump Yeah, I mean, they don't have this long standing relationship. Thunon doesn't come from the MAGA wing of the partarty. He is very focused on preserving the institution of the US Senate. But you know, Senator John Kennedy this week described Thunon as a golden retriever. No one really dislikes them. And dog? Yes, this is a canine heavy episode, which I am all about. But you know, I don't think this is about Thune and Trump having personal beef necessarily. It is simply that Thune has to be in this position of telling Trump no. And he's been really clear repeatedly that the votes just aren't there to pass the Sfe America Act. Just take a listen to this recent appearance on Fox News. It's a function of math. And obviously the president wants things done and we have to go through regular order. It's a sixty vote threshold in the Senate And as I said, there aren't anywhere close to the requisite number of votes to change that It's just not going to happen. So we've got to deal in the real world. Though this is complicated by the fact that there are a handful of Senate Republicans, notably Senator Mike Lee of Utah, who keep saying, no, this is possible. You know, I mean, I think one of the things is that Trump is just so adamant about getting this through and, you know, it dates back to, I mean, certainly it's one of his biggest domestic priorities, this legislation and dates back all the way back to twenty twenty in him saying that that election was rigged, which obviously it was not I mean, so bigger kind of political picture, this act, which you know does voter ID and requires people to bring identification. He se birth certificates are proof of citizenship, not just identification. Absolutely. And this kind of speaks to his kind of message that he has had forever and ever and ever that Republicans are vulnerable, that elections are vulnerable Rublicans are being taken advantage of. And I think this is an issue that you know also energizes his base. and they want this as well. So it is part of his political message that he has been you preaching since twenty twenty and continues to do so. All right, we are going to take a quick break and we'll be right back This is our glass On this American life, when we like is a good mystery. Sometimes about really big things For most times ittle mysteries is at the best. Our Lost and foundound is currently filled with pants. I don't know I've never seen this happen. This is true. This is true. Mysteries of every size Each week this American life wherever you get your podcasts NPR's tiny desk can't come to you. I mean it's a desk, but the tiny desk contest tour can New York City join NPR's tiny desk contest winner, Cure for Paranoia at Warsaw this july ninth. It's all the NPR tiny Dk energy minus the office furniture Get your tickets now at tinydesktour. org Your favorite toys are back in Toy Story five, and they're facing some new competition, the dreaded Table How will Buzz Witty handle Kids glued to screens? And how does this new movie compare to others in the franchise? We get into it on NPR's pop culture happay Hour, Listen via the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts And we're back. And we've been talking about the Save America Act, which is a very big priority for President Trump Sam, is it as big a priority for Republicans on the hill? For a few of them, it is, but for most of the Senate Republican caucus, I would say no, even though most of that caucus does say that they would vote for it, it's not something that is driving their everyday moves on the hill I asked Senate Majority Leer John Thone whether Trump's focus on twenty twenty is coming at the expense of an agenda that will help Republicans keep the majority, not in that previous election, but in this upcoming one in twenty twenty six. And here's what he said. At least as far as I'm concerned, I think our path to keeping the majority in the Senate is going to be focused on the issues that the American people are most concerned about. and those tend to be kitchen table, pocketbook issues Is my community safe? Is my country safe? I think those are going to be paramount And I followed up as Thun was disappearing into his office to ask, is it hard to stay focused on those issues in this particular moment when the president keeps blowing up your best laid plans And he turned and said, I'm trying to stay focused Yeah, on the matter of pocket book issues. President Trump has said several things that would sort of fly in the face of that messaging that Thon wants. He has said, I love inflation, though he meant that he loves that it wasn't higher because of the war. He has said that he isn't thinking about Americans' finances when negotiating with Iran. But there's definitely a mismatch there between what the president is saying and what Thoon says he wants Republicans to run on Yeah, I mean, Senate Republicans would prefer to be talking about the one year anniversary of the one big beautiful bill, that sweeping tax and spending bill that Republicans passed last year. They'd prefer to be talking about the bipartisan housing bill that Congress is on track to pass this week. Instead, so much of the focus has been on Bill Polty, has been on Iran, has been on this anti weaponization fund that the administration had previously proposed that could have resulted in payouts to january sixth rioters. So the attention keeps getting pulled back into these other issues, many of which are premised on relitigating twenty twenty, not a forward looking vision for what Republicans would do if they hold the majority in twenty twenty six you know, in terms of some of those comments that Trump has made that really have not gone over well. likeike I love the inflation type thing. I do think that certainly does not serve him. I also think it's kind of a little bit more of a distraction I mean, I really feel like most Americans are more focused on whether their inflation is actually going up, whether gas prices continue to go up, whether food prices can be get controlled of That said, I mean you can imagine how gleeful, you those ad writers are in Democratic political offices are as they're cutting ads for their campaigns for the upcoming midtermss. because they certainly love those lines because what they want to do over and over again is paint Republicans, the president and Republicans of being so out of touch with everyday Americans who are focused, as Thune said, on those kitchen table issues you know, another issue that is straining the relationship between Trump and senators from his own party is the war with Iran. and M recently, this memorandum of understanding that Trump signed with Iran to end hostilities for the next sixty days, at least. Sam, how are Republican senators reacting to it Well, for a lot of last week, Senators had not been able to see the draft of the memorandum of understanding, Even those in the gang of eight, these top Senate leaders who normally would be given a preview of this kind of document Once it did come out, what exactly was in it, we did start to hear a lot of pushback even from within the Republican Party. You know, Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, one of these senators who lost his primary bid posted on social media that Reagan is rolling over in his grave. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades. Others like Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said it doesn't look like the US really came out ahead in any of this after a month long conflict. There are others who are saying, well, we'll wait and see, but there was certainly some frustration among Senate Republicans on the hill last week Yeah, I'm very kind of curious to see if this kind of ends up being a little bit of a crack that kind of shows or kind of reveals the senators as being a little bit more independent of Trump's agenda. I do have my doubts because we've you know kind of went down that narrative a few times. But clearly, you know, as Sam's kind of pointing out, many Republicans have raised concerns about what they're seeing so far There are so many comparisons that this is, you know, just the Obama deal two point zero So there's big questions about that, but I think the real question is will they actually do something about it? And there's one thing to kind of complain about it behind closed doors, but will they take action such as, you kind of requiring Trump to seek approval from Congress, which they've not done really so far Yeah, and just today, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Iran as part of this memorandum of understanding. But like, you know, there are a lot of Republican senators who are in favor of applying as much pressure to Iran as possible and see lifting sanctions, among other things as something of capitulation But Sam, you have been following this so called YolLo caucus. You only lose once or in some cases, like they never needed Trump anyway Do you have a sense of whether this Yolo caaucus is actually going to end up causing him trouble beyond rhetoric? Yeah, so there's this small group of Senate Republicans who have either lost primaries to challengers backed by President Trump or have decided to retire after facing Trump's wrath for acting in a way was in opposition to his agenda. You know, The people we're usually talking about in this group is North Carolina, Senator Tom Tillis, who opted to retire after voting against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year. And then there's also Bill Cassid of Louisiana and John Cornan of Texas, who lost to Trump back primary challengers within the last couple of weeks And you know, these figures so far have made threats, for example, to hold up nominations or take other actions to push back more tangibly. But Tam, it's been a lot of talk, I would say so far being really vocal in their criticism, which, you know is a departure from how most