Risks and Consequences of Conflict

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Time flies when you're dealing with multiple global conflicts and crises Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage And today, we're continuing our series of special intelligence briefings, taking a brief step back from the daily headlines for the next couple of days to examine some of the biggest national security and geopolitical questions facing the world. That's a brief for sppite from the minute to minute Daily headlines Today, we're turning our focus to what many consider to be the next major global flashpoint. Taan And we're asking the question, well, will China actually invade Taiwan It's a question that resurfaces whenever tensions flare in the Taiwan Strait. And they flare on an almost continuous basis these days. After Chinese military exercises across the island, Well, after following major arms sales from the U.S, after visits by American lawmakers, or whenever Beijing issues another warning that reunification can't be delayed forever In recent years, those concerns have only intensified China's military has grown dramatically in size and capabilities. Chinese aircraft and naval vessels now operate around Taiwan with increasing frequency. PLA naval vessels are now on almost constant deployment around the island Meanwhile, American military planners have repeatedly warned that Beijing may be accelerating preparations for a future conflict But before we can answer whether China could successfully invade Taiwan, we should first revisit how the island became separated from mainland China in the first place To understand why Taiwan remains one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world today, we have to go back more than seventy five years Back to the aftermath of World War two At the time, China was emerging from years, a brutal conflict against immperial Japan But even as that war ended, another struggle was entering its final phase, a civil war, between two competing visions for China's future On one side stood Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party On the other stood Chen Kai Shek and his nationalist government, known as the Kuomint Tang The fighting had begun years earlier, paused during the Japanese invasion, and then resumed with full force after World War two And by nineteen forty nine, it was clear which side was winning. Mao's commommunist forces swept across the mainland, capturing city after city and steadily destroying the nationalists's ability to resist Facing defeat, Chen Kai Shek and roughly two million soldiers, government officials, and supporters fled across the Taiwan Strait to the island of Taiwan. O october first, nineteen forty nine, Mao declared the founding of the People's Republic of China in Beijing but the nationalists didn't surrender Instead, they established their government in Taiwan, where they continued operating under the name Republic of China For years, both governments claim to be the legitimate rulers of all China Beijing insisted Taiwan was a rebellious province that would eventually be reunified Taiwan maintained that it remained the rightful Chinese government and that the communists were the illegitimate regime. What might have happened next is impossible to know, but the Cold War quickly changed the equation The US. viewed communist China as a strategic threat and eventually became Taiwan's primary security partner American military support helped ensure that Mao never attempted a large scale invasion of the island Several crises erupted in the Taiwan Strait during the fifties, but none escalated into a full scale invasion Over time, the political realities evolved. Most countries eventually recognized Beijing as the government of China, including the US in nineteen seventy nine Taiwan gradually transformed from an authoritarian state into one of Asia's most vibrant democracies. And today, it governs itself, elects its own leaders, maintains its own military, and functions in nearly every respect as an independent country But Beijing has never changed its fundamental position. The Chinese Communist Party, the CCP, still considers Taiwan part of China Chinese leaders have repeatedly stated that reunification is inevitable And current Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made clear that he views reunification as an essential component of what he calls the quote great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation This brings us to the central question of today's briefing If Beijing ever decided that the time had come before force reunification How would it actually do it But first, a quick reminder, we just released the third episode of our newest premium content series, the PDB Dictator Files. Now this week, we explore one of history's strangest recurring obsessions of dictators the quest for immortality. From ancient Chinese emperors searching for magical elixirs to Vladimir Putin's reported interest in cutting edge longevity research to Dr. Evil's Big Boy spaceship in cryogenic Chamber We'll examine why so many dictators become obsessed with cheating death You can check that out now at pdbpremium. com All right, coming up after the break, we'll examine why Taiwan may be one of the most difficult invasion targets on Earth, and why a war that appears straightforward on a map at least, quickly become a nightmare for Beijing I'll be right back Hey, Mike Baker here. Now let me ask you a question How many times during the week do you drop, I don't know, ten or twenty or thirty dollars on essentially meaningless items? Impulse buys are just stuff that you honestly don't need. You know what I'm talking about. But those impulse purchases, well they add up. And by the end of the week or month, you're wondering, where's your money gone? 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On paper, the balance of power would appear to favor Beijing Maps can be deceiving. Because while Taiwan may seem close to China, it's also one of the most difficult military objectives on Earth. For decades, military planners have studied what a cross strait invasion might look like, and the conclusion has been remarkably consistent Even if China ultimately succeeded, the operation would be among the most complex and dangerous military undertakings in modern history. The first challenge is the Taiwan Strait itself. Moving an invasion force across open water is one of the most difficult operations in warfare Paps armored vehicles artillery, fuel, ammunition, food, and medical supplies all have to be transported across a body of water while under threat from enemy aircraft, missiles, naval vessels, drones, and submarines unlike an army advancing across land An amphibious force is exposed from the moment that it leaves port until the moment it reaches shore And reaching shore is only the beginning Taiwan's geography strongly favors the defender. Much of the island's eastern coastline consists of steep cliffs and rugged terrain that are largely unsuited for amphibious landings The western side of the island offers more potential landing areas, but those beaches have been studied for decades and would almost certainly be among the most heavily defended locations in the country. Even if Chinese forces manage to establish a foothold, They would then face Taiwan's mountainous interior. Nearly two thirds of the island is covered by mountains. and that creates natural defensive barriers, of course, that would complicate any movement inland Major cities such as Taibei, Taicheng, and Kaohig could become sprawling urban battlefields where defenders would enjoy significant advantages But then there's the question of scale Many comparisons have been made between a potential invasion of Taiwan and the D D landings in Normandy during World War two The comparison, of course, isn't perfect, but it illustrates the magnitude of the challenge Any serious attempt to seize Taiwan would likely require hundreds of thousands of troops, thousands of vehicles, and a logistical operation on a scale not seen since the Second World War And unlike the Allied landings in Normandy, Chinese forces would be operating under the constant threat of modern precision weapons Taiwan has spent decades preparing for exactly this scenario. The island's military has anti ship missiles, air defense systems, naval mines, and coastal defenses designed to make any amphibious assault as costly as possible The goal is not necessarily to defeat China outright but to make an invasion so difficult and so expensive and so costly that Beijing decides the risk is not worth the reward Of course, Taiwan would not necessarily be fighting alone. And one of the biggest uncertainties surrounding any invasion scenario is the role of the US. Washington maintains a policy known as strategic ambiguity, deliberately avoiding a clear statement about whether American forces would directly intervene in any conflict and that uncertainty is intended to deter both a Chinese invasion and a Taiwanese declaration of formal independence But from Beijing's perspective, the possibility of American intervention can't be ignored Any invasion plan would have to account not only for Taiwan's military, but potentially for American naval forces, submarines, aircraft, cyber capabilities, and perhaps even support from regional allies, particularly Japan and the Philippines. begins as an invasion of Taiwan, could rapidly become a much larger regional conflict And that's why many analysts believe the greatest misconception about Taiwan. is the idea that China simply needs to move troops across the strait and plant a flag in type A The reality is far more complicated All right, when we come back, we'll answer the question at the heart of today's briefing. 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Learn more at payPal d. com slash pay monthly Welcome back to the President's Daily brief So far today, we've explored how the Taiwan issue began and why a full scale invasion of the island would be one of the most difficult military operations attempted in modern history This brings us to the question at the heart of today's briefing If Beijing ultimately decided that peaceful reunification was no longer possible How might it actually try to bring Taiwan under its control The answer is that a Chinese campaign against Taiwan would almost certainly begin long before the first troops stepped onto a beach In fact, the opening phase might not look like a war at all It would look a lot like what's already happening China would likely intensify efforts already underway today, cyber espionage, influence operations, disinformation campaigns, economic pressure, and intelligence gathering The objective would be to better understand Taiwan's military, identify vulnerabilities, shape public opinion, and create confusion about Beijing's intentions Then if a decision were made to use force, many analysts believe the first shots would be fired in cyberspace Chinese cyber units would likely attempt to disrupt communications networks, government systems, financial institutions, transportation infrastructure, and military command and control networks The goal would be to create confusion and slow Taiwan's ability to coordinate a response at the same time Beijing would almost certainly launch a sophisticated information campaign designed to spread panic, undermine public confidence, and convince Taiwanese citizens that resistance was futile. Only then would the military phase begin The world could wake up to reports of large scale missile strikes targeting air bases, radar installations and naval facilities, ammunition depots, and command centers across Taiwan China's massive arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles has been built in large part with this scenario in mind The objective would be to blind Taiwan's defenses, destroy aircraft on the ground, disrupt communications, and establish air and maritime superiority before any invasion force left the mainland At the same time, Chinese naval forces would likely move to isolate the island And this is where things become particularly interesting. becausecause a full scale amphibious invasion may not be Beijing's first choice Many military analysts believe China would attempt a blockade instead Taiwan is an island nation heavily dependent on imported energy, food, and raw materials A sustained blockade could place enormous economic pressure on Taipei without requiring Chinese troops to fight their way through heavily defended beaches and urban centers. Chinese warships, submarines, aircraft and missile forces, could attempt to restrict commercial shipping and create uncertainty about whether vessels could safely reach Taiwanese ports Beijing might even pursue a more limited version of this strategy, sometimes described as a quarantine. Rather than formally declaring a blockade, China could announce inspections of vessels entering Taiwanese waters or establish exclusion zones around portions of the island Such measures would create a difficult dilemma for Taiwan and its partners. Does the US intervene immediately? Does commercial shipping comply point is economic coercion beccome an act of war These greay zone scenarios are attractive to China because they potentially allow Beijing to exert tremendous pressure while reducing the immediate risks associated with a massive amphibious assault Of course, there is also the possibility that Chinese leaders conclude that only a decisive military victory can achieve their objectives In that scenario, after missile strikes and efforts to establish control of the AirN Sea, China would begin moving troops across the Taiwan Strait And this would be the moment that military planners have spent decades studying Thousands of vessels could be involved, including naval ships, of course, civilian ferries, transport vessels, amphibious assault ships Airborne forces might attempt to seize key infrastructure. Special operations units could target government facilities and military headquarters. Amphibious forces would push towards selected landing areas along Taiwan's western coast. But as we discussed earlier, getting ashore would be only the beginning. The real challenge, of course, would come afterwards Taiwan's military spent decades preparing for a scenario in which Chinese forces successfully establish beachheads. Urban warfare in cities like Taipei could become extraordinarily costly Supply lines across the strait would remain vulnerable. Every day the conflict continued would increase opportunities for outside intervention and would complicate Beijing's efforts to maintain momentum And that brings us to perhaps the most important variable in any Taiwan scenario. that would be the U. S. No discussion of a potential conflict over Taiwan is complete without considering Washington's role For decades, American policy has been deliberately ambiguous. The US has never provided an ironclad security guarantee to Taiwan But it's also never ruled out military intervention Whether that approach would hold during an actual crisis is impossible to know What we do know is that American military planners, Chinese military planners and Taiwan's leaders all spend enormous amounts of time thinking about the same question If a conflict begins, how quickly could outside powers respond? And how would their involvement change the balance of the fight Those questions remain unanswered because they've never been tested. And that's ultimately, where today's discussion leads us People often ask whether China will invade Taiwan. It's a reasonable question, of course, but it may not be the most useful one A better question is whether Chinese leaders believe they can successfully achieve their objectives at an acceptable cost. An invasion could succeed, a blockade could succeed, a coercive campaign might succeed. But every option carries enormous risks, not just for Taiwan. But for China A failed invasion would be catastrophic for the Chinese Communist Party A prolonged war could devastate global trade, disrupt supply chains, and draw major powers into a direct confrontation Even a successful campaign would leave Beijing facing the enormous challenge of governing a population that doesn't want to be governed from the mainland Well nobody can say with certainty whether a conflict will occur Understanding how such a conflict might unfold helps explain why the Taiwan strake remains one of the most consequential and potentially dangerous flashpints on the planet And that my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday, the first of July. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at the firstirstTV. com. And if you love the PDB and really how could you not? But would love an ad free experience? well, that is eminently doable. Just become a premium member of the President's daily brief by visiting PDP premium. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed stay safe. Stay cool