Suspect Identified in Monaco Bombing

Somewhere between the first drive and settling into the clubhouse Golf becomes more than just a game Lulu Lemon Glf gear is built for the full range of your day white layers as you head to early tea times Flexible fits move naturally with your swing Our fabrics wick sweat and block UVs for hours in the sun And refined cuts carry you well into the nineteenth pole Shop golf gear in stores and online at lulumin. com It's Monday, the sixth of July. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage And for all you listeners in the US I hope you had an excellent two hundred fiftieth birthday. And for England, well, I think the sting of losing the colonies was diminished, somewhat by an outstanding World Cup victory yesterday over a terrific Mexico team to reach the quarterfinals. Well done All right, let's get briefed First up, a troubling new warning from U. S. intelligence. Russia may be preparing to provoke a direct confrontation with NATO carrying out an attack on Polish territory We'll have the details Later in the show, the funeral for Ayatola Ali Khamini. drew thousands of mourners and members of his family, but not the man who succeeded him as Iran's suupreme leader He's actually the Claud Reigns of Ayatollaas And I hope that classic movie reference is understood, at least by some Plus, China is expanding its pressure campaign against Taiwan, sending Coast Guard ships to waters east of the island in a move that broadens Beijing's military presence. then in today's back of the brief Authorities have named a Ukrainian woman as the prime suspect in a bombing that shook Monaco and reportedly targeted one of Ukraine's wealthiest businessmen. Now, what are the odds that she was recruited by Russia's FSP? I don't know. pererhaps I'm just speculating But first today's PDB spotlight According to multiple reports published late last week The U. S has reportedly warned Poland that Russia may be preparing an armed provocation against NATO territory a limited attack designed not to conquer territory, but test the resolve of the Alliance Now it's important to note that the White House has not publicly confirmed the intelligence assessments, but Polish leaders aren't dismissing them. Prime Minister Donald Tusk acknowledged the reports, saying Poland is preparing for, quote, various scenarios and warning that the coming months could prove critical Meanwhile, Polish Foreign Minister Radislaus Sikorssk It delivered an unusually blunt message directed at Vladimir Putin He said, quote, We know what you're planning. Don't do it. end quote So what exactly are officials worried about Well, according to reports, U.S intelligence has warned Warsaw that Moscow may be considering a limited military provocation on Polish soil sometime in the coming months The goal wouldn't be to launch a conventional invasion of a NATO country. Russia doesn't have the forces available for that while its military remains heavily committed in Ukraine Instead, officials believe that the Kremlin could be looking for something much smaller and, well, much more ambiguous One scenario reportedly under consideration is a drone strike against critical Polish infrastructure, perhaps in an electrical substation or a power facility Another involves a simulated air attack using decoy drones and spoof radar signals or missiles intended to force Poland to activate its air defense network without necessarily causing any major damage Perhaps the most concerning possibility is a small cross border incursion by Russian or Belarusian troops, launched either from Belarus or from Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad enclave. acccording to the reporting Moscow could then claim the incident was of an accident, a GPS malfunction, a navigation error. or even a search and rescue mission involving an aircraft that supposedly stray across the border. honestly, they would say, we have no idea how our troops ended up in your territory. In other words, the operation would be supposedly designed to give Russia plausible deniability And that raises an obvious question, why would Moscow bother with such a limited operation becausecause it's really not about Poland. It's about NATO The Kremlin's objective, reportedly, wouldn't be to seize Polish territory or begin a conventional war with the Alliance. Instead, it would be to create an incident so ambiguous that NATO members begin arguing over whether Article V, the Alliance's Coective Deense Clause actually applies Remember, Article five states that an armed attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all It's only been invoked once in the alliance's history following the september eleventh terrorist attacks But hybrid warfare complicates that equation. If a handful of unidentified drones strike a power station If several armed men briefly crossed the border before withdrawing If Russia immediately blames Ukraine or claims the incident was accidental Well, does that constitute an armed attack Does NATO respond militarily? Or does it spend days and days debating exactly what happened while Russia watches for any signs of division within the alliance from Moscow's perspective, that uncertainty may be the point. A divided alliance is a weaker alliance. And if Russia can expose disagreements over when or whether NATO is willing to defend one of its own members, could undermine the Alliance's credibility without ever firing the opening shots of a traditional war. There's another reason why a Poland makes an attractive target Since Russia's full scale invasion began in twenty twenty two, Poland has become one of Ukraine's most important lifelines Much of the Western military aid flowing into Ukraine passes through Polish territory. It's also one of NATO's strongest supporters of Kiv and has undertaken one of the largest military modernization programs anywhere in Europe A crisis inside Poland could therefore accomplish two objectives at once test the NATO's political cohesion while also disrupting or at least complicating the flow of military support into Ukraine Over the past several years, European governments have accused Russia of steadily expanding its campaign of hybrid warfare across the continent. That's included cyber attacks, GPS jamming sabotage plots, suspected arson attacks, espionage operations, drone incursions, and efforts to map critical civilian and military infrastructure Now none of those actions individually triggered a military response But together, They've formed a sustained campaign, aimed at probing Europe's vulnerabilities while staying below the threshold of open warfare This latest intelligence warning suggests that Western officials believe Moscow may now be considering taking that strategy one step further Of course, none of this means that such an operation is inevitable. Intelligence warnings are designed to prepare governments for possible scenarios not to predict the future with certainty And Polish officials have been careful to emphasize that while they take the threat seriously They're not urging the public to banic. The greatest danger to NATO today may not be a massive armored assault across Eastern Europe It may be a carefully calibrated incident small enough to create confusion but serious enough to force the alliance into answering the question that Putin may be hoping to answer willill NATO stand together? All right, coming up next, Iran holds a funeral for Ayatollah Alkhamani But his successor is nowhere to be seen And China opens a new front in its pressure campaign against Taiwan by sending Coast guuard ships east of the island I'll be right back Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, if you're like me, you enjoy the occasional night out, right? But not the morning after. That's why I want to tell you about a game changing product, Zbiotics pre alcohol It's the world's first genetically engineered probiotic, invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings. And here's the science behind it. 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Just drink free alcohol before you go out and you wake up ready for whatever the next morning brings. Remember to head to zbiotics d. com slash pdp and use the code PDB at cheheckout for fifteen percent off. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, did you know that fast growing trees is America's largest and most trusted online nursery? Did you know that? They've got thousands of trees and plants and over two million happy customers. Come on. seriously, two million satisfied customers They have all the plants your yard or home needs, including fruit trees and privacy trees, flowering trees, shrubs, or don't forget your shrubs, and houseplants, all grown with care and guaranteed to arrive on your doorstep healthy Whatever you're looking for, fast growing trees helps you find options that actually work for your climate, for your space, for your lifestyle. Right now, they have great deals on spring planting essentials up to half off on select plants. And listeners to the PDB get twenty percent off their first purchase when using the code PDB at checkout. That's an additional twenty percent off for better plants and better growing at fastgrrowingtrees. com Us the code PDB at checkout. That's fastgrowingtrees d. com code PDB. Now is the perfect time to plant and use code PDB to save today. Offer is valid for a limited time, terms and conditions may apply Welcome back to the PDB Even as Iran attempts to demonstrate stability and strength and resilience after months of war One unanswered question continues to hang over the Islamic Republic. Wh is its new supremeer? That's the question being asked this week as the Islamic Republic stages massive funeral ceremonies for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khammini Now reporting from Reuters details how tens of thousands of mortars continue to pour into the Iranian capital, and regime authorities say millions more are expected to join funeral processions over the coming days But for all the carefully choreographed images of unity One of the most important people in the country never appeared or has yet to appear. State teelevision showed three of Hamini's sons Mustafa, Mesem and Masud. Praying beside five coffins displayed inside Tehran's Imam Khomeni Gan Musala. You may remember their father and four other family members were all killed in the february twenty eighth airstrike kicked off the conflict between the U S., Israel, and Iran. Missing from the ceremony, of course, was Mushtaba Hhamini, the man who was selected to take his father's position as Iran's new suupreme leader Now by itself, an absent appearance at a funeral might not seem particularly remarkable But this isn't just any family member This is the man now leading the Islamic Republic And despite assuming power months ago Iran has still not released a single public photograph or video showing him Reuters, citing people close to Mushaba's inner circle, reports that he suffered severe facial injuries along with significant damage to one or both legs. during the same strike that killed his father and family members Iranian officials have neither confirmed nor denied those reports You ask? Why does all of this matter Well, because these ceremonies aren't simply about honoring Iran's longime suupreme leader. They also represent the Islamic Republic's first major opportunity to demonstrate that its leadership transition is under control following one of the most significant crises in the regime's history. The ceremonies come just weeks after a four month conflict that left Iran's theocratic regime backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Cps, the IRGC, still in power. despite suffering one of the most significant blows in the Islamic Republic's history Now Tehran appears determined to project stability and resilience as it navigates its first leadership transition in more than three decades which is why Mosttaba's continued absence Well stands out Meanwhile, the multi dayay funeral is underway. After lying in state for senior Iranian officials and foreign dignitaries, Ayatllah Hhamini's coffin was moved outdoors over the weekend IRGC soldiers, seminary students and civilians past the coffin, carrying Iranian flags and banners, promising revenge against the U.S and Israel. Iranian authorities plan to stage a week of mass funeral processions mobilizing millions of mourners before taking Hamini's remains to several Shii holy sites in neighboring Iraq The funeral has also temporarily put diplomacy on hold As we discussed last week on the PDB, President Trump confirmed that indirect peace negotiations with Iran have been suspended while the country completes the state funeral ceremonies. For now, Takhran is trying to show both its own people and the outside world that the Islamic Republic remains stable, despite the death of its longtime leader But until Mostabohmani appears publicly Well, his continued public absence is likely to continue intense speculation about Iran's transition of power All right, I want to turn now to Taiwan, where China is once again increasing its pressure campaign against the self governed island by expanding Coast Guard patrols off its eastern coast as Beijing pushes its territorial claims beyond Taiwan's coastline into the surrounding seas Now if I told you another pair of Chinese Coast Guard ships was operating near Taiwan, that may not sound especially alarming. After all, Beijing has made these kinds of deployments increasingly routine, almost near daily But Beijing isn't simply sending more coast guuard ships to its usual patrol around the western part of the island The latest actions mark another step in China's long term effort to normalize its presence east of Taiwan and to reinforce its claim that it controls not only the island itself, but the surrounding seas as well China's coast Guard announced Saturday that it had begun what it called, quote, law enforcement patrols in the Western Pacific. declaring that it would continue to strengthen law enforcement patrols in waters under China's jurisdiction while quote, firmly safeguarding China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, end quote Andy Sunday, Taiwanese officials said two Chinese Coast Guard ships were operating between roughly eighty and one hundred and forty miles off Taiwan's eastern coastline Now Chinese Coast Guard ships have operated there in the past. That's true, particularly during major military exercises What's different this time is the stated mission Rather than supporting military drills, Beijing is conducting a standalone law enforcement operation One the Taiwanese officials say, is backed by explicit declarations that China claims jurisdiction over those waters And that's where China's Cast Guard has become one of Beijing's most effective tools. Unlike the People's Liberation Army Navy and their grrey hoold naval warships Coast Guard vessels allow China to pressure its neighbors while stopping short of outright military confrontation Their large heavily armed ships increasingly complement the PLA Navy's capabilities, giving Beijing another way to advance its territorial ambitions without firing a shot We've watched that playbook unfold across the South China Sea, where Chinese Cast Guard vessels have spent years, swarming disputed waters, ramming foreign ships, and blasting crews with high powered water cannons. Now, Beijing appears to be reinforcing and extending that same strategy east of Taiwan The waters east of Taiwan include one of the world's busiest commercial shipping corridors, and would almost certainly become a critical theater if China ever attempted to blockade or invade the island. Patrols like these allow Beijing to rehearse the kind of maritime operations that could one day support a blockade. while stopping short of deploying the PLA's Navy Taibei, for its part, is not accepting this new reality Taiwan responded by dispatching its own coast Guard vessels to shadow the Chinese ships while rejecting Beijing's legal claims outright Taiwan's cooast Gard administration vowed to, quote take all necessary measures. to force Chinese government vessels out of what it considers its national waters Taiwan's mainland Affairs council likewise, argued China has quote, no jurisdiction or related rights in the area and therefore possesses no authority to conduct law enforcement operations Well, that dispute also extends well beyond Taiwan itself The waters in question lie outside Taiwan's territorial seea, but fall within maritime zones where Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines all assert overlapping rights to economic activity And that's a legal reality that Beijing increasingly argues it inherited through its claim of sovereignnty over Taiwan All right, and coming up in the back of the brief, Eterpol has identified the prime suspect a bombing that targeted a wealthy Ukrainian businessman and his family in Monaco more on that when we come back Hey, Mike Baker here. 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Download the prriceline app or visit priceline. comot Actual prices may vary limited time offer One of Europe's most exclusive enclaves has become the scene of what investigators believe carefully planned assassination attempt Nearly two weeks after a remote controlled bomb exploded outside a luxury apartment building in Monaco Authorities now believe the attacker disguised herself as a man before fleeing across multiple European countries Now, investigators believe they know who they're looking for Interpol has issued what's known as a red Notice for thirty nine year old Ukrainian national Anastasia Berezovska alerting police agencies around the world to locate and provisionally arrest her. while Moscow seeks her extradition Although Monaco has not officially identified the victims, French and Ukrainian media report that the intended target was a Ukrainian born businessman, Vadim Yrmalayev, who is now a Cypriot citizen along with his partner and their thirteen year old son Authorities say the family had been targeted as they returned home from dinner on the twenty ninth of june. when an explosive device detonated from a distance using a remote control, our through the lobby of their upscale apartment building near the Monaco France border The blast and flying glass seriously injured all three victims. Detectives initially believed that they were looking for a heavily built man wearing a dark long sleeve shirt, light colored shorts and a black bucket hat After reviewing additional CCTV footage from previous days and interviewing witnesses Investigators say they realize the suspect was actually a woman who had deliberately disguised herself as a man before allegedly carrying out the attack Authorities believe Borzovska's last known residence was in Germany According to Monico's deputy public prosecutor, she then allegedly fled through France and into Italy in a rental vehicle in the hours after the bombing Forensic specialists in France continue analyzing remnants of the explosive device As investigators work to determine who planned the attack Why, one of Ukraine's wealthiest businessmen and his family were allegedly targeted and whether Berzovska acted alone or on behalf of others. Well, here's a pro tip. She was acting on behalf of others The bombing has rattled Monaco, a country better known for luxury yachts and casinos and billionaire residents. Th for targeted acts of violence Monicaco's Prince Albert II condemned the attack as quote an odious act