Unresolved Issues in Iran Negotiations

And we're live on match day as Doug reaches for a buffalo wing He's got it. Oh, and he's gone for a can of Beepsy too. What a finish There's no doubt about it. It just tastes better. Match days deserve Pepsi. It's Thursday the second of July. Welcome to the BDB afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage All right, let's get briefed First up, after weeks of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, Vladimir Putin has finally acknowledged the damage. We'll explain what his rare admission says about the war. and what it could mean for what's next later in the show The latest from the U. S. Iran talks, where negotiators are expressing growing confidence that a broader and more durable peace stal may finally be within reach Is there anyone more hopeful and full of unwarranted optimism than a negotiator dealing with the Iranian regime But first, today's afternoon spotlight. For more than four years, Vladimir Putin has projected an image of confidence, insisting that Russia could weather Western sanctions, absorb Ukrainian attacks, and continue prosecuting what the Kremlin has always called its quote special military operation for as long as necessary But earlier this week, the Russian president made one of his more revealing public admissions of the war. acknowledging that Ukraine's sustained attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure are in his words creating, quote problems for the country In speaking with Russian journalist Pavel Zerubin, Putin conceded that Russia is experiencing what he described as a quote certain shortage of fuel though he insisted the situation is not critical He also identified restoring fuel supplies and expanding Russia's air defenses as two of the government's highest priorities. As we've been tracking here on the PDB, Ukraine has spent weeks hammering Russian refineries, fuel depots and other energy infrastructure. The result has been growing fuel shortages, rising gasoline prices, and even a state of emergency in occupied Crimea, where civilian fuel sales have been suspended so supplies can be reserved for the military and other government needs Reports have also pointed to longer lines at gas stations in parts of Russia, including around Moscow. And at some point, the problem simply becomes too visible to deny And that's important because one of the Kremlin's biggest political successes over the past four years has been insulating everyday Russians, especially those living in key urban centers, including Moscow. from the worst consequences of the war While hundreds of thousands of Russians have fought and died in Ukraine, life in the capital has remained remarkably normal for most people Kiv has been trying to change that. Ukraine's latest long range strike campaign hasn't simply targeted oil refineries because they're valuable military assets. It's also aimed at making the costs of the war impossible for ordinary Russians to ignore Every refinery it hits and every fuel depot it destroys places additional pressure on Russia's domestic economy and forces the Kremlin to make difficult choices about where to send increasingly limited resources At the same time, those attacks are stretching Russia's air defenses We've also covered here on the PDB reports that Moscow has been forced to divert valuable interceptor systems away from the front to defend refineries and industrial facilities and the capitol Putin himself acknowledged that Russia needs to rapidly expand production of its air defense systems That's a notable admission that Ukraine's drone campaign is imposing real costs on the Kremlin's defensive posture Now, none of this, of course, means Russia is on the verge of collapse or that Putin is preparing to throw in the towel Russia remains one of the world's largest energy producers and Despite the disruption, the Kremlin still has considerable resources at its disposal Putin described the shortages as manageable, and history has shown that large countries can absorb significant economic pain Before it translates into strategic defeat. The more interesting question is why Putin chose to acknowledge these problems in such a public manner at this time Authoritarian leaders rarely admit weakness unless they believe their people can already see it for themselves When gas prices are climbing, and when civilians in Crimea can no longer purchase fuel and When images of burning refineries near Moscow are circulating across social media Simply pretending everything's fine becomes far more difficult It's also worth considering what this could signal about the next phase of the war We don't like to speculate here on the PDB, but Putin still has cards to play Russia could continue expanding defense production and at the same time, intensify its missile and drone campaign against Ukraine In fact, there are already signs that Moscow may be choosing exactly that path Overnight, Russia launched another massive missile and drone barrage against Kyiv, striking residential neighborhoods a hotel and medical facilities Ukrainian officials say at least twenty one people were killed and more than eighty wounded in the attack, which reportedly lasted for hours Another option that the Kremlin still has is a major military mobilization But that would also come with considerable political risks partartial mobilization back in twenty twenty two triggered widespread public anxiety, and prompted hundreds of thousands of military aged Russian men to leave the country The Kremlin has been reluctant to repeat that experience Putin is beginning to prepare the Russian public for greater sacrifice Then his comments this week may represent something more than a simple acknowledgement of fuel shortages They could be an early indication that Moscow expects this war to become even more demanding. in the months ahead coming up next, negotiators are reporting progress in the talks between the U. S. and Iran with mediators expressing optimism that the two sides may be inching closer to a lasting peace agreement 'll have the latest Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question. How many times during the week do you drop I don't know, ten or twenty or thirty dollars on essentially meaningless items? You know what I mean? Impulse buies are just stuff that you honestly don't need. Those impulse purchases, will they add up. By the end of the week or month, you're wondering, where's your money gone Well, let me tell you what you could be doing with that money. Acre gold lets you turn that lost money into physical twenty four cararat Swiss gold Take a plan, your balance builds, and once you hit the price of a bar, they ship it straight to your door. It's that simple. And it's real gold in your hand. And that's an asset that's been valuable since the dawn of civilization And for the collectors, get this. Acre just dropped the limited Edition hot wheels collection You remember hot wheels? how good were they? These are officially licensed by Mattel and strictly capped and once they're gone, they're history. While you're there, claim your free entry to the Speed Club sweepstakes. They're giving away one grand and ten gram gold hot wheels bars in official collectors' packaging Start investing in a solid physical asset for just thirty dollars at getacregold dot com slash pdB. Once again, that's getacchregold d. com slash pDB. Subscribe today. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, this fourth of July, the nation's two hundred fiftieth birthday, celebrate right with America's favorite foods from Goldbelly. Goldbelly is the official food marketplace of America's two hundred fiftieth birthday, bringing iconic local favorites straight to your door. Whether it's Terry Black's barbecue from Austin or Lou Melnadi's deep dish pizza from Chicago Maybe it's Junior's cheesecake from New York. They've got America's best I ordered Terry Black's barbecue for a recent summer get together with the compound And while you at first might be skeptical about ordering barbecue online, let me tell you something. The quality was outstanding, the shipping was easy, and everything arrived fresh and delicious. It brought an authentic Texas experience right to my doorstep. And like everything Goldbelly delivers, it arrived fast and perfectly packed So if you're looking for a great way to celebrate America's two hundred fifteth, or you just want to host an epic party or barbecue this summer, go to gooldbelly d. com and get free shipping and twenty percent off your first order with promo code PDB. That's gooldbelly dot com code PDB for free shipping and twenty percent off your first order. Hey Mike Baker here. Now you probably have noticed, but I thought I'd mentioned it. Summer has arrived. And of course, with it hot days and warm nights. And those warm nights that heat Well, it can make getting a good night's sleep nearly impossible. Luckily, there's Czy Earth Coosy Earth is the answer to a cool, comfortable night's rest Look, we've got cozy Earth sheets at the Baker compound and they are a game changer. They're ultra soft bamboo sheets. Let me tell you something. afterfter a hot humid day, they feel like pure resort level luxury. And unlike standard cotton sheets that trap body heat Cozy Earth's fabric stays cool and crisp all night long Also looking for premium outdoor comfort? well, they've got you covered. Cozy Earth's beach towels, you got to get to the beach offer an unmatched softness and quality that completely outperforms regular towels. It's an elevated luxury that everyone deserves. So you gott toa get yourself some. Plus shopping is entirely risk free. Cozy Earth backs betting purchases with an industry leading ten year warranty. come on, a ten year warranty and a one hundred night hassle free return trial period. Made using VisCous from bamboo. theseese sheets are breathable, they're soft and they're built for summer. Head on over to cozyearth. com and use my code PDB for an exclusive twenty percent off. That's code PDB for an exclusive twenty percent off. And if you see a post purchase survey, do me a favor Mentioned that you heard about Czy Earth right here on the PDB Fourth of July savings are happening now at the Home Depot with select appliances starting at three hundred and ninety eight dollars Plus, get free delivery on appliance purches of three hundred and ninety eight dollars or more, no membership required. Upgrade your kitchen with a modern and sleek GE profile refrigerator featuring hands free autofill for the perfect pour every time. And make laundry day easier with two in one washer dryer combo innovation that completes laundry in about ninety minutes Shop topop brand appliances now at the Home Depot. offer about june seventeenth to julyeth, USN store online for details Welcome back to the PDB Anoon Bulletin The U. S and Iran have concluded another round of indirect talks in Dohop But despite another two days of diplomacy and the ever optimistic comments from the always hopeful mediators There's little indication that Washington and Tehran are moving closer to any sort of lasting peace deal Instead, the discussions appear to have focused on something far less ambitious. simimply implementing the interim agreement, the memorandum of understanding that largely halted the fighting rather than negotiating the disputes that could still unravel it What exactly was said behind closed doors remains unclear. No readouts from Washington or Tevron have been published But from what sources and officials on both sides have revealed to reporters, Negotiators spent much of the past two days discussing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of Iranian assets Now I want to point out that no direct talks took place between the American and Iranian delegations. Both sides relied on Qatari and Pakistani mediators in what officials described as technical level discussions And notably, the White House's senior ennvoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner flew to Doa but did not attend the sessions, underscoring that this week's discussions remain focused on implementation rather than the high level political negotiations that still lie ahead And that distinction helps explain why the talks produed so few concrete breakthroughs From what's known at this point, they appear to have spent much of their time trying to implement an agreement where the most contentious provisions are still being interpreted very differently by both sides Iranian officials said the talks focused in part on gaining access to frozen assets. Well AxOos reported, the U. S. envoys were trying to persuade Tehran not to impose tolls on commercial ships passing through the strategic waterway. Well, it does sound like it's all going very well Although commercial traffic is partially resumed under the interim agreement Iran continues pressing its claim over the strategic waterway Tehran issued another warning Wednesday, directing vessels to follow Iranian designated routes through the strait And they've repeatedly suggested it intends to begin charging transit fees once a temporary toll free period expires later this summer For Washington, that position is a non starter. although in reality, well that position has been in effect since the MOU was signed. The strait has yet to be fully opened and the regime has consistently acted as if they now control the waterway. The U. S., and frankly, the world in general, has long viewed freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as a core national security and economic interest. An Iranian attempts to restrict or mobilize passage through the waterway would almost certainly raise tensions again and would run counter to long standing International maritime laaw. But again, the regime isn't attempting to restrict passage. They are in fact restricting passage. It's not a minor detail here Even so, both governments struck an optimistic tone. following the talks because well, as Emily Dickinson said, hope is the thing with feathers. President Trump told reporters stateside that the quote denuclearization of Iran was moving along well Which is an interesting comment, to say the least, since, according to all available reporting and sources, the Iranian regime has yet to be willing to discuss their nuclear program Qutar's foreign ministry described discussions as making, quote positive progress on issues related to the memorandum of understanding, which had been signed. Apparently there was no understanding at the point of signing the MOU, saying they were also building on the outcomes of their last meeting in Switzerland Now you too can be a diplomat if you can string together enough words without saying anything specific. I know I am sounding very cynical here and I apologize But perhaps the clearest indication of how limited the Doha talks were came from what wasn't discussed. President Trps state Sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters that Iran's nuclear program never came up because the meetings were technical in nature. Well, and also because the regime refuses to discuss their nuclear program. If anything, Iran continues projecting little willingness to compromise on the issues that matter most. nor is Iran showing much sign of softening its military posture The regime's acting defeense minister reiterated this week that Iran's military capabilities are, quote, not negotiable, adding that Iran's missile and drone programs will continue to advance The ceasefire may have largely stop the fighting for now, but questions surrounding the Strait of Hamuz, Iran's nuclear program Sanctions relief and Tehran's missile and drone capabilities all remain unresolved The next round of talks is expected after the funeral processions for Iran Supremeader Ayatollah Ali Khamini, scheduled to be buried on the ninth of July It's unclear what direction format or structure those potential next talks may take And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Thursday, the second of July. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pDB at the firstTv dot com And to listen to the show ad free, you can do that. It's very easy. Just become a premium member of the presresident's daily brief by visiting pdbpremium. com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then Stay informed, Stay safe stay cool Hey Mike Baker here Now Usually, getting high quality seafood Mans settling for whatever the grocery store managed to stock, right? Or maybe if you're lucky at some point, you've got a fish market nearby, but typically not. So now let me tell you about a better option, right? I'm talking about the wild Alaskan compompany,? The Wild Alaskan compompany delivers wild caught premium seafood straight to your door on whatever customized schedule you want. It's really that simple Unboxing that first delivery is a total game changer. Each piece arrives individually portioned and vacuum sealed, making dinner time incredibly simple