Details of the Pipeline Attack Investigation

And we're live from the living room as Doug eyes up the match they spread. He's reaching for the buuffalo wing. Perfect Hang on, what's this? Oh, he's good for a Cat of Pepsi too. Inredible What to finish Sensational combination. Look at the delight on his face. There's no doubt about it. It just tastes better. Match days deserve Pepsi. Food deserves Pepsi. Grab a pack of Pepsi Zero Sugar for today's match It's poetry in motion It's Friday, the third of July. Welcome to the PDB Anoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage All right. Let's get brief. firstirst up, a new report paints a sobering picture of the war in Ukraine, estimating that Russia has now suffered one point four million battlefield casualties. I'll break down those new casualty estimates and what they reveal about the changing character of the war Later in the show, German prosecutors say they've solved one of the biggest mysteries of the Ukraine war alleging that the twenty twenty two Nord Stream pipeline sabotage was carried out on orders from Ukrainian state authorities But first, Today's afternoon sppotlight. New battlefield data released this week paints a sobering picture of the war in Ukraine Russia continues to fight and continues to attack But according to a new assessment from the Center for Strategic and International Studies It's now paying a higher price for every mile of ground than at any point since the invasion began. The report estimates Russia has suffered roughly one point four million battlefield casualties, including as many as four hundred fifty thousand killed while total casualties on both sides of the conflict have now surpassed two million Those figures, of course, are staggering But they aren't the report's most important finding The real story is what those losses reveal about the changing character of the war and why Moscow may be paying an increasingly steep price for increasingly smaller gains According to the report, Russia is now suffering between thirty thousand and thirty four thousand battlefield casualties every month That's a rate that likely exceeds its current recruitment efforts. If those estimates are correct, Moscow has reached a troubling milestone. It's losing soldiers faster than it can replace them Even more striking is how the casualty ratio has shifted For much of the war, Russia suffered roughly two to three casualties for every Ukrainian casualty But CSIS now estimates that that ratio has climbed to nearly eight Russian casualties for every one Ukrainian casualty during the first half of this year. That's a dramatic increase that suggests the battlefield has become considerably more lethal for Russian forces You have to ask yourself, what changed Well, according to the report, much of the answer lies in Ukraine's rapid evolution on the battlefield It's a trend that we've been tracking closely here on the PDB Over the past year, Ukraine has dramatically expanded its use of drones, not only to strike deep inside Russia, but also to reshape the fighting along the front The report describes a vast quote kill zone stretching roughly twenty to forty kilometers behind the front lines, where the reconnaissance drones, first person view attack drones, artillery, and precision guided weapons combine to make movement extraordinarily dangerous Russian troops attempting to advance are often detected and attacked long before they ever reach Ukrainian defensive positions. In fact, some estimates, cited in the report suggest that more than ninety percent of Russian casualties are now caused by drones rather than traditional infantry engagements. At the same time, the report argues Russia has struggled to adapt Rather than conducting large coordinated combined arms assaults Russian commanders have increasingly relied on small infantry groups to probe Ukrainian defenses, identify firing positions, and slowly wear down Ukrainian lines through sheer persistence. It's a strategy designed to maintain constant pressure on the battlefield But it's one that comes at an enormous human cost. And despite paying that price, Russia has remarkably little to show for it According to the report, Russian forces are advancing at average rates of just fifty to eighty to ninety meters per day in several of the war's key sectors Now that's roughly the length of a football field and among the slowest rates of advance recorded in any major conflict over the past century. The Rort also notes that Russia actually lost more territory than it gained during both April and May of this year making its first monthly net territorial losses since the summer of twenty twenty four Now, all of this, of course, has to be kept in overall context. The Kremlin still commands enormous resources, continues to recruit tens of thousands of new troops each month and has shown no indication that Vladimir Putin intends to abandon his objective of subjugating Ukraine Nor does the report suggest Ukraine is on the cusp of a decisive breakthrough Modern warfare increasingly favors the defender Dense minefields, trench systems, electronic warfare, and above all. drones have made it extraordinarily difficult for either side to achieve the rapid offensives that characterize the opening months of Putin's invasion Instead, what's emerged is a grinding war of attrition, where victories are measured less by dramatic breakthroughs than by which side can better sustain the enormous costs of continuing to fight And that's perhaps the report's most important conclusion For months, we've reported on Ukraine's increasingly aggressive campaign against Russian oil refineries, ammunition depots, rail networks, air basases, command centers, and logistical hubs deep inside Russian territory viewed individually, those strikes appeared to be isolated operations taken together, however, point to a much broader strategy forcing Russia to spend more soldiers more money and more military resources simply to maintain the war effort Okay. Coming up next, after years of speculation over who destroyed the Nord Stream pipelines German prosecutors are now pointing the finger at Ukrainian state entities We'll break down the charges and what they could mean for relations between Berlin and Kyiv I'll be right back Hey, Mike Baker here with a word about personal health and weight loss. Now look, everybody's talking about weight loss injections, right? Because the results have been so dramatic. They work by lowering blood sugar and reducing appetite But what if you're looking to lose weight and you're not interested in painful weekly injections? Eespecially when you hear about some of those intense side effects Well, that's why doctors created a weight loss supplement called Lan, that's L EA N. 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Shop Wayfare's Fourth of July clearance now through july sixth at wayfair dot com d Pay fair, every style, every home Welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin For nearly four years now, we've been following one of the biggest mysteries to emerge from the war in Ukraine Who blew up the Nord stream natural gas pipelines beneath the Baltic Sea from the moment the explosions ripped through the pipelines in September of twenty twenty two Theories, of course, have swirled all about Russia blamed the West. Some analysts suggested Moscow may have sabotaged its own infrastructure Others pointed toward Ukraine or pro Ukrainian operatives But despite years of investigations, no government had publicly laid out a detailed legal case Identifying who they believed was ultimately responsible Now, German prosecutors say they've done exactly that On Wednesday, Germany's federal prosecutors formly charged a former Ukrainian army officer identified only as Seri K accusing him of helping organize the operation that destroyed three of the four Nord stream pipelines But the indictment goes well beyond accusing one individual Prosecutors alleged that Sarahi Ki was acting on behalf of Ukrainian state authorities, making this the first time, that Germany has publicly alleged that the sabotage operation was directed by entities within the Ukrainian government If those allegations are ultimately proven in court Well, they would fundamentally reshape one of the most consequential unanswered questions of the war According to the charging documents, this individual, Sahi K, served as an officer in the Ukrainian military at the time of the attack and acted as the onbard coordinator for a six person sabotage team Prosecutors say the group traveled to Germany using forged Ukrainian passports before chartering a sailing yacht called the Andromeda from the northern port city of Rostoockk From there, investigators allege the team sailed into the Baltic Sea, carrying military grade explosives The group reportedly included a skipper, four trained deep sea divers, and an explosive specialist prosecutors say the divers descended to the Nordstream pipelines near the Danish island of Bornholm, attaching timed explosive charges before returning to the yacht Four days later, on the twenty sixth of september in twenty twenty two, those charges detonated, rupturing three of the four Nord Stream pipelines. and sending massive plumes of natural gas bubbling to the surface of the Baltic Sea German investigators say they later recovered traces of military explosives, including HMX and RDX aboard the Andromeda. Evidence, they argue ties the vessel directly to the sabotage mission. As for the motive, prosecutors contend the objective was straightforward. permanently halt Russian gas exports through the Nord stream system depriving Moscow of a major source of revenue that could be used to finance its war against Ukraine. Now it's worth remembering that although the pipelines were not carrying gas at the moment that they were destroyed, Nordstream had long been one of Russia's most important energy links to Europe Before the invasion, Germany relied heavily on Russian natural gas delivered through those pipelines making them a critical piece of Europe's energy infrastructure and an enormously symbolic target Not surprisingly, both the suspect and the Ukrainian government are pushing back against Germany's allegations. Siri K has denied any involvement in the operation, and his attorney says he's confident his client will ultimately be acquitted. Meanwhile, Ukrainian PresidentZelky Kyiv has not received sufficient information from Germany to evaluate the case and they continue to deny that Ukraine was involved in the sabotage For Berlin, however, the political implications of these charges could be significant Germany has been one of Ukraine's largest military and financial supporters throughout the war providing billions of dollars in military equipment, economic assistance and humanitarian aid If German prosecutors ultimately prove that individuals acting on behalf of Ukrainian state authorities secretly carried out an attack against infrastructure that was central to Germany's own energy security. They could create an uncomfortable maybe awkward new chapter in the relationship between the two countries Now, again, these are allegations, not convictions, and the evidence will ultimately be tested in a German courtroom But after years of competing theories and intelligence leaks and international speculation, Germany is now making its most definitive public claim yet about who it believes was behind the Nord Stremam sabotage. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon Bulletin for Friday, the third of July. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at the firstTv. comot And of quest to listen to the show ad free. Yeah, it's simple. become a premium member of the President's daily brief by visiting PDB preremium Calm And don't forget to catch the latest episode of our extended weekend show that of course would be the PDB situation report This week's guests include retetired General Ben Hodges, former commanding offfficer of U. S Army Europe He'll be discussing Ukraine's current campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure. We also have Benem Ben Tablu Head of the Foundation for the Defense of Democrac's Iran program Venim will look at the latest indirect talks between the U. S. and Iran and discuss how the Iranian regime is currently benefiting from the sixty day memorandum of understanding The episode launches tonight at ten PM on the first TV. and as always can be found on our YouTube channel. that's at Presidentents's Daily brief as well as on podcast platforms everywhere And also for all you listeners and viewers in the US We wish you here at the PDB a very, very happy fourourth of July and two hundred fiftieth birthday for the United States. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back over the weekend with the PDB situation report. Until then, Stay informed stay safe Stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for homeowners. Now, think about the last time one of your home systems or appliances failed you, right? Think about a pipe burster or your AC quit during a heat wave, right? They always stop during a heat wave. Remember that sudden panic? you got to scramble to find a plumber or an electrician, knowing you'll pay anything to fix it, yeah. not a good memory, right Now these home issues and breakdowns often cost more than car repairs and standard insurance, as you know, won't cover the wear and tear