Russian Military Setbacks in Mali

It's Tuesday, the seventh of July. Welcome to the PDB Anoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage Night Let's get brieed First up, just days after another round of U. S. Iran indirect negotiations ended without a breakthrough Iran is accused of launching missile attacks on commercial shipping almost like the regime hasn't read the memorandum of undernderstanding It's a memorandum of misunderstanding I'll have the details Later in the show, Russia's shenanigans in Africa are encountering trouble We'll take you to Mali, where Twarig fighters claim they've shot down one of Moscow's attack helicopters But first, oday's afternoon spotlight. If you were wondering how the latest round of U. S. Iran negotiations have been going, well, I believe we may have gotten our answer overnight. less than three weeks after agreeing to Supposedly halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz as part of a supposed memorandum of understanding with the U. S. Iran continues to behave as if they control the waterway Late Monday night, Iran reportedly fired missiles at two commercial vessels transiting the strait If those reports are confirmed, it would mark one of the most serious violations yet of the MOU. and raise further questions about whether diplomacy can survive yet another exchange of missile and drone attacks Here's what we know. The late Monday night, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Agency received a distress report from a tanker sailing southbound near the Omani cooast According to the agency, the vessel was struck on its port side by an unidentified projectile sparking a fire on board Soon afterward, Axios reported that two U. S. officials had identified the projectile as an Iranian missile fired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC According to those officials, a second commercial vessel was also struck in the same area Both ships reportedly suffered significant damage. though there have been no reported fatalities Maritime seecurity sources later identified the vessels as the Saudi flagged crude oil supertanker Weedyon and the Qatari liquified natural gas carrier, Al Rekiat The LNG tanker reportedly suffered a hit near the top of its engine room triggering a fire and forcing the crew to send out a Mday call before abandoning the vessel Now beyond the immediate damage to the ships, these attacks strike, of course, at the core of the U. S. Iran ceasefire, or whatever you call this pretend ceasefire an agreement. One of the central provisions of the memorandum signed after the war was Iran's commitment to stop targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormoz promise was intended to restore confidence in one of the world's most vital energy choke pointoints But as we've discussed here on the PDB over the past several weeks, the ceasefire never actually resolved the underlying dispute over who controls access to the strait And it never really ceased the firing Missiles and drones have been exchanged sporadically over the past few weeks as the Iranian regime continues to try and assert control over which vessels can transit the strait and under what terms As a result, shipping companies have remained very cautious and skeptical. Insurance premiums have stayed elevated. Many commercial operators have continued delaying voyages or have been rerouting vessels despite the agreement Last week's indirect negotiations in Doha reportedly made little progress on the issue leaving the safe passage provisions largely unresolved Adding to those concerns, the IRGC reportedly spent the weekend warning merchant vessels to abandon the internationally recognized shipping corridor near Oman and instead travel through routes designated by Iran According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, some ships received radio warnings declaring that Iranian missiles and drones were ready to fire if they failed to comply That's left commercial shipping in an increasingly impossible position They can follow the internationally recognized transit lane and the vessels risk becoming targets L they can shift into Iranian designated waters And shipping companies effectively will be acknowledging Tehron's claim that it controls passage through the strait That uncertainty is precisely what the ceasefire was supposed to eliminate. Instead Monday night's reported missile strikes suggest that reality is nothing's changed The Trump administration has not yet announced how it intends to respond But if U S. intelligence concludes Iran deliberately targeted civilian shipping, Washington will come under significant pressure to retaliate At the very least, the attacks are likely to complicate, already stalled negotiations aimed at turning the temporary ceasefire into a more durable agreement. Well, given how ineffective this current MOU has been It's a bit whimsical to talk about a more durable agreement For now, investigators are still working to fully establish what happened Luckily for the investigators, you don't need to be poirot to determine if an Iranian missile hit a commercial vessel We should have confirmation shortly coming up next to the Kremlin's influence campaign in Africa has suffered another potential blow We'll look at reports that Russian forces lost an attack helicopter during fierce fighting in Mali and what that could mean for Moscow's regional ambitions. I'll be right back Hey, Mike Baker here. Now let me ask you a question. How many times during the week? Do you drop ten or twenty or maybe thirty dollars on essentially meaningless items, right? Impulse buys or just stuff that you honestly don't need Now those impulse purchases, well of course, they add up. 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It even qualifies leads and handles after hour responses so your business stays on duty even when you're off. If your compM system isn't efficient, that is just money left on the table Always say hello with Quo. Try Quo for free. pllus, get twenty percent off your first six months when you go to cuo dot com slash pDB. Once again, that's Cuo Quo cuo dot com slash pdB Welcome back to the PDB afterfternoon Bulletin sppent years focused on Russia's war in Ukraine. But there's another battlefield where Moscow is increasingly finding itself under pressure and it's received very little attention In recent days, armed groups across the West African country of Mali launched one of their largest coordinated offensives in months. Amid the fighting, Twareg rebels claim they've shot down one of Russia's attack helicopters Now that matters because Russia isn't simply supplying weapons to Mali anymore its own forces, Russian forces are now fighting and increasingly coming under attack alongside that country's military You ask How did Russia end up fighting a war in Mali in the first place? It all sounds a bit cold wararish Over the weekend, coordinated attacks erupted across northern, central, and southern Mali, targeting military positions, including several bases where Mali's armed forces are deployed Mali's military government says it repelled the assaults with support from Africa Corps. That's the Kremlin controlled force that replaced Russia's Wagner group in the country. and that the situation, they said, is now quote, Totally under control., tootally According to the government its forces killed twenty six militants while one pro government fighter was killed and four others were wounded But the insurgents are telling a different story orting from Al Jazea indicates the attacks were claimed by two separate armed groups. the Twareg led Oswad Liberation Front or the FLA, and the al Qaeda linked terrorist organization B known as JM JNIM. Now that alliance may seem surprising to those of you who keep up with international affairs. The FLA is a separatist movement rooted in Northern Mali's Twareg population. Its goal is to establish an independent homeland The organization itself formed in twenty twenty four after several Twareg Sparatist groups united under a single coalition JNim, on the other hand, is one of Al Qaeda's strongest regional affiliates, operating across Mali, Niger, and Burkina Fasso. It formed in twenty seventeen through the merger of several Jiadist groups, and its objective is not Twareg independence, but expanding Islamist control, replacing the Malian state But despite those very different goals, the two groups have repeatedly found common cause against the same enemies, Mali's military government and the foreign forces backing it One of the biggest claims from the weekend came from the FLA, which says its fighter shot down a Russian operated MI twenty four Hind attack helicopter. as it attempted to reinforce government positions Videos released by the rebels appear to show the helicopter crashing and burning However, neither Russia nor Amali confirmed the loss confirmed, the loss would represent one of the most significant battlefield setbacks for Russia's mission in Mali in recent months. And that's because Russia's biggest battlefield advantage in Northern Mali is air power Across the country's vast desert terrain, MI twenty four Hind helicopters escort military convoys and provide close air support for Russian and Malyian ground forces. Now for context, the Twareg people have lived across the Sahara for centuries And many in Northern Mali have long accused the government of economic neglect. political marginalization and cultural discrimination Following the twenty eleven collapse of Libyan Dictator Moarmar Qadafi's regime Thousands of Tireareg mercenaries who had fought for Qaddafi returned home from Libya with modern weapons and years of battlefield experience They quickly overwhelmed government forces across northern Mali and declared the region of Azawad independent At first, the rebellion appeared to succeed but it didn't remain in a separatist movement for long Qaida linked toihadist groups quickly exploited the chaos, hijacked the uprising, pushed many of the Tarig rebels aside and seized key cities across northern Mali Suddenly, what had begun as an ethnic separatist rebellion became an international counter terrorism crisis. France intervened in twenty thirteen to stop the jihadists, while the UN later deployed peacekeepers to help stabilize the country But after several military coups Molly's ruling hunnta expelled French troops and UN peacekeepers. Russia, though, was more than willing to step in Unlike the West, Moscow offered military support with very few political strings attached, such as democratic reforms and election timelines Well, I, for one am shocked that the Kremlin didn't prioritize democracy and elections For the Kremlin, Mali represents a foothold for influence in Africa and access to natural resources So Russia supplied weapons and fighters, transforming the conflict from one backed by foreign advisers into one in which Russian forces fight alongside Molly's military That also helps explain Why the reported location of the helicopter shootown matters. According to the FLA, the Russian helicopter was heading toward Anafis, one of the military government's last major staging areas near rebel held territory Holding on a feace allows the Junta and its Russian allies to reinforce northern front lines. And for the rebels, isolating the town makes that significantly harder So Russia entered Mali, promising it could succeed where France and the UN failed. Instead, Mali's security crisis continues to deepen Russian personnel are now directly exposed to an insurgency made up of separatist rebels and al Qaeda linked militants. And that my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin. Tuesday the seventh of July. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at the firstirstTv. com. And of course, to listen to the show add free, you can do that. It's very simple Just become a premium member of the President's daily brief byy visiting pDbpremium. com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then Stay informed, stay safe They cool.