Defining Victory in a Protracted Conflict

Heat up your fourourth of July at the Home Depot with our wide variety of grills under three hundred dollars and make every gathering one to remember. Give your outdoor space a glow up. Whatever your budget is, with savings on seasonal plants starting at five dollars. With the grill fired up and your backyard set to perfection, you'll be able to invite friends and family over to kick off the party Start celebrating with low prices guaranteed at the Home Depot. Prices may vary by stor exisions the price see Home Depot com sign priceash for details It's Tuesday, the thirtieth of June. Welcome to the PDB Anoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Now, as mentioned during this morning's PDB, Here at the President's Daily brief, we decided we'll take a couple of days off from the grind of the daily news cycle bring you a look at some of the overall geopolitical issues and top line questions that sometimes get lost in the constant rush of the fast breaking headlines. The PDB team, of course, is keeping an eye on breaking news and will update as warranted But for just two or three days, we thought we'd turn our focus to the bigger picture questions to present a few special intelligence briefings a respite, if you will, from the daily news cycle. And today's question for this afternoon's Pulletin is one that's become increasingly difficult to answer as the war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year. And that question is Well, can Russia still win At first glance, the answer might seem somewhat obvious. After all, more than four years have passed since Vladimir Putin launched his full scale invasion of Ukraine back in February of twenty twenty two The conflict has consumed hundreds of thousands of lives, reshaped European security, and transformed Russia's relationship with the West yet, despite all of that The war remains unresolved. Russia controls significant portions of Ukrainian territory, yet Ukraine remains independent and continues to resist And Russia has not achieved the objectives that it set for itself at the beginning of the conflict Which raises a fundamental question How do we evaluate success in a war that's become defined by endurance, by a World War one style of grinding, slow, costly gains rather than dramatic battlefield breakthroughs too answer that We first need to go back to the beginning. When Russian tanks first rolled across the border in February of twenty twenty two, the conventional wisdom at the time was that Moscow possessed nearly every meaningful advantage Putin and frankly countless pundits and analysts expected Russian forces to be in Kyiv within weeks, if not days. After all, Russia's economy was significantly larger than Ukraine's. Its military was larger, better equipped and widely regarded as one of the most capable fighting forces in the world It possessed thousands of tanks and armored vehicles, a powerful air Force, long range missile capabilities and a substantial advantage in manpower Now, the initial invasion was built around speed. Russian forces pushed toward Kyiv from multiple directions. Airborne troops attempted to seize Ky infrastructure armored columns raceed toward the Citol The expectation seemed to be that Ukraine's government would collapse, resistance would fragment, and Moscow would quickly establish a friendly regime instead Almost everything for the Kremlin went wrong Ukrainian forces fought far more effectively than many observers anticipated President Zelensky remained in Kyiv. Russian logistics broke down Command and control problems emerged, Western countries rapidly supplied military aid, intelligence support, and economic assistance Within weeks, the assumptions that had shaped the opening phase of the war began to unravel Russian forces ultimately withdrew from northern Ukraine and abandoned their effort to seize Kyiv. What had initially appeared to be a war of fast maneuvers gradually evolved into a grinding war of attrition focused largely on easastern and southern Ukraine. And as the nature of the war changed, so did the balance of advantages Russia still possessed significant strengths. It retained a larger population, a larger economy, and a greater ability to absorb casualties maintained substantial military industrial capacity and continued producing weapons, of course, ammunition and military equipment despite extensive sanctions But many of the advantages that seemed overwhelming back in February of twenty twenty two proved less decisive than expected Ukraine demonstrated a remarkable capacity to mobilize its population Western military aid narrowed some of the technological gaps between the two sides prerecision weapons, drones, intelligence support, and air defense systems helped Ukraine offset some of Russia's numerical advantages And over time Both sides adapted Russia adjusted its tactics, expanded defense production and increasingly shifted its economy toward a wartime footing Ukraine strengthened defensive positions, integrated new weapons systems, and continued drawing support from Western partners The result is the battlefield reality that we see today a war that was expected to last weeks has stretched into years A conflict that many expected Russia to dominate has become a costly struggle for incremental gains measured in meters and kilometers rather than regions And perhaps most importantly, a war that once seemed likely to produce a clear winner has evolved into something far murkier Because while Russia has failed to achieve many of its original objectives, Ukraine has also struggled to reclaim large portions of occupied territory Both sides continue to fight, of course. bothoth sides continue to suffer losses bothoth sides continue to insist that victory remains possible This brings us to the central question of today's briefing When we ask whether Russia can still win the war in Ukraine What exactly do we mean by win Because depending on how we define victory, the answer may be very different Coming up after the break, we'll examine what victory actually means in modern warfare, why Russia's goals, although not their demands, have evolved since twenty twenty two, and whether the Kremlin still has a realistic path to achieving them I'll be right back Hey, Mike Baker here Let me ask you a question. 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Welcome back to the PDB afternoon Bulletin Now before the break, we talked about how Russia entered the war with what appeared to be overwhelming advantages only to find itself locked in a prolonged conflict that's lasted far longer than almost anyone anticipated And that brings us to the central question of today's briefing, Can Russia still win Well, the answer depends entirely on how we define victory If we use the objectives that appeared to drive the initial invasion in February of twenty twenty two, the answer is probably no Russia's early campaign was clearly aimed at far more than territorial gains. Moscow appeared to believe it could rapidly seize Kyiv. President Zelensky's government and fundamentally reshape Ukraine's political orientation ending up with a Belarus like arrangement where the leader is a Kremlin puppet The Kremlin spoke openly about the need to demilitarize and, quote, denazify Ukraine, terms that in practical terms, suggested an effort to bring the country firmly back into Russia's sphere of influence those objectives now appeared largely out of reach Ukraine remains an independent state of course. itss government remains intact. It military remains in the field and rather than being pushed away from the West Ukraine has become more closely aligned with Europe and the U.S than at any point in its modern history. So if that was the definition of victory, then Russia failed years ago But worse have a way of changing the objectives of everyone involved. It begins as an ambitious campaign often evolves into something narrower and more achievable. Political leaders suggest their expectations, military commanders adapt to realities on the ground, and strategic goals shift And that's exactly what appears to have happened with Ukraine Today, Russia's path to victory looks very different than it did in twenty twenty two Instead of conquering Ukraine, the Kremlin may simply be seeking to secure and retain the territory that it currently controls. Instead of replacing the government in Kieiv, it may be focused on ensuring that Ukraine never becomes a fully integrated member of NATO and perhaps most importantly Moscow may be betting that time is on Russia's side This last point is particularly important Wars are not won solely on battlefields. They're also won or lost. politics and economics and public will From the Kremlin's perspective, one possible path to victory involves simply outlasting its opponents Russia's leadership understands that democratic governments face political pressures that authoritarian systems often don't Elections occur, public attention shifts, economic concerns emerge. voters grow tired of distant conflicts. Political priorities change If support for Ukraine weakens among its key backers, Moscow may conclude that it can achieve through patience. what it could not achieve through rapid military action That doesn't mean that such a strategy is guaranteed to succeed, of course. Russia faces serious challenges of its own The war has imposed enormous economic costs. Casualties have been staggering Equipment losses have been significant. Sanctions continue to restrict portions of the Russian economy And while Russia has adapted far better than many analysts initially predicted Maintaining a wartime footing year after year creates pressures that can't be ignored indefinitely Demographics also remain a concern. Like many developed nations, Russia faces long term population challenges. Sustaining military recruitment while simultaneously maintaining economic productivity is not an easy balancing act then there's a simple reality that Ukraine continues to fight. One of the most persistent mistakes analysts made in the early stages of the war underestimating Ukrainian resilience That same mistake can be made today in reverse. Just as Russia proved less capable than expected in some areas, Ukraine has demonstrated a determination and capacity for resistance It continues to surprise many observers As a result Neither side appears capable of achieving a decisive breakthrough And that's, of course what makes this conflict so difficult to analyze When people ask whether Russia can still win They're often imagining dramatic battlefield developments, massive offensives, collapsing front lines, a clear military decision But many wars don't end that way Some conclude through negotiations, others through exhaustion, still others through a gradual recognition that neither side can achieve its maximal objectives In that sense, the most likely outcome may not be a clear Russian victory or a clear Ukrainian victory It may be some form of settlement, ceasefire, frozen conflict, or long term stalemate that leaves both sides claiming success and both sides dissatisfied with the result Even that possibility highlights the central point of today's discussion Russia does not need to achieve all of its original objectives in order to claim some version of victory If it retains significant territory, if it prevents Ukraine from fully integrating into Western security structures If it convinces enough international actors that the conflict can't be resolved militarily Well, Moscow may argue that it achieved its most important goals Whether the rest of the world accepts that interpretation, well, that's another matter entirely So Question Can Russia still win the war in Ukraine If victory means conquering Ukraine and replacing its government, the answer then is likely no If victory means securing territorial gains, preserving Russian influence and outlasting its opponents physically and economically. and the answer becomes much more complicated. The battlefield has changed. The objectives have evolved The assumptions that existed in the early days of the war have largely disappeared The version of Victory, available to Moscow today lookooks very different from the one that Vladimir Putin envisioned when the first Russian tanks crossed the border And that my friends is the PDB afternoon Bulletin for Tuesday, the thirtieth of June. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at the firstirstTv. com And to listen to the show ad free, it's very simple to do, just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB Premium . com