Future of the Iran Nuclear Deal

Somewhere between the first drive and settling into the clubhouse Golf becomes more than just a game Lulu Lemon Glf gear is built for the full range of your day white layers as you head to early tea times Flexible fits move naturally with your swing Our fabrics wick sweat and block UVs for hours in the sun And refined cuts carry you well into the nineteenth pole Shop golf gear in stores and online at lulumin. com The ultimate cookout starts with the ultimate ingredients. At Whole Foods market, no antibiotics ever burgers and kebabs are prepped and ready to throw on the grill. Fire up a juicy ribeye. Grab creamy potato salad and savory flatbreads from the prepared foods department, and round it all out with three hundred sixty five brand condiments, chips and dips at everyday low prices Whole Foods Market. Make your summer sizzle Welcome to the PDP Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, yourour eyes and ears on the world stage D right Let's get briefed. First up, Ukraine is tightening the noose around Crimea, while Russian civilians grapple with fuel shortages at home. Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges joins us to explain what this new phase of the war could mean Later in the show, the U S and Iran have supposedly wrapped up another round of talks, or sort of talks, or kind of indirect negotiations. But the biggest disputes remain unresolved Ben Un Ben Talabu of the Foundation for Defenseive Democracies, joined us to break it all down But first, today's situation reports spotlight Ukraine has been intensifying its long range campaign against Russia, tightening the noose around occupied Crimea while continuing to strike refineries, fuel depots, and other critical infrastructure deep inside Russian territory. The strategy is designed not only to disrupt Moscow's war machine but to steadily increase the economic and political costs of continuing the conflict And those costs are now becoming harder for the Kremlin to hide. In a rare public acknowledgement, Vladimir Putin admitted that fuel shortages have become a serious problem as Russian motorists face long lines at gas stations and rapidly rising gasoline prices. The question now is whether this mounting pressure can translate into meaningful leverage on the battlefield Joing us to break it all down is Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commanding genereneral of U.S. Army Europe General, thank you very much for coming back here on the situation report. We really appreciate it. And by the way, happy fourth of July N you work I appreciate the opportunity and I wish everybody, all your listeners a happy independence Day weekend Thank you, sir. and Let's get stuck right into it if we could. This This current situation Um It almost feels as if we're We're getting close to some sort of inflection point And correct me if I'm wrong, but Putin's recent comments admitting problems from the Ukrainian effort to target the energy infrastructure. the rising gas prices in Russia, the fact that it's It's becoming more apparent, perhaps to the Russian population that there are costs to this invasion of Putness. Do amm I wrong in thinking that this feels like we might be getting somewhere? At this point after all these years It does feel that the momentum has shifted in favor of Ukraine Um You know, it's we're not we're not getting close to the end. but it does feel like it's so many different ways that the momentum has shifted the obvious Things are, of course, in Crimea the way the Ukrainians have isolated the peninsula and they're making that place untenable for Russian forces. And now you've got thousands of Russians who are down there for their annual summer holiday. are trying to get the hell out of there U and partly because there's no guass, but also because it's pretty dangerous there now. So that that's an indicator and that's not something that Putin will be able to ignore the increasingly effective long range precision strikes that the Ukrainians are launching against Russia's oil and gas infrastructure has not only resulted in Gasoline shortages and very, very long queues at gas stations But it also bites into Russia's ability to finance the war. They're not able to export as much oil and gas to China and India and other customers. So there's a strategic effect there U The thing that the Ukrainians have not been able to stop yet, of course, though is Russia's continued attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure. So that's, you know, the last couple of days have seen some terrible attacks But we you know, from history that that strategic bombing of populations never Buteez the decisive effect, if anything, it makes people fight harder and I think that's what's happening in Ukraine But it would seem as if I don't want to oversimplify this, but It would seem as if Putin is then facing two options, either double down, become more aggressive, which appears like that might be his path given the you just mentioned the increased aggressive missile and drone barrages or You know, say, okay, fine, let's sit down at the negotiating table Um you know, am I am I repeating that wrong? No, I think those are two Um posossible scenarios Well we don't see any indication yet that he actually is interested in doing some sort of negotiation. There's reporting over the last few days that Russia has closed border crossings On their western border with the Baltic countries. And on their easastern border with Georgia and Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan which makes me think that perhaps Yoi, what's going on? why Why would they do that unless it was to make sure people did not leave? as would be the case If they were to announce a big mobilization than you could imagine a lot of people trying to get out of there. So That's that's speculation on my part, but I thought that was an interesting announcement by the Russiian side So I think that Putin will continue doing this as long as he thinks he has a chance that that Ukraine will finally collapse or that support from the West will finally collapse or that maybe The American president will exert some kind of influence on behalf of Russia to bring this to a conclusion that's favorable to Russia U Soly withith Putin is realiz it himself or the people around them say, Hey, this has got to stop. we're being ruined. We Russia are being ruined U I think he's got a Continue Yes, we've talked about that here on the PDB in the past in that that doesnn't so much matter if the Russian population Um you know is is getting concerned about this, right? What matters is whether the elites the people around him who in a sense, You know, they they kind of li in a symbiotic relationship. Putin keeps them in power. they keep Putin in power with those elites, the business, the military leaders and others They start to question in a serious manner the cost of this invasion then Yeah, I think you're right. That's where pererhaps then he starts thinking about a possible negotiating position, but what would I mean, have you seen any indications that he's backed off any of his earlier demands? He seems to have been fairly consistent over these years in what he would expect. from any end game I'd say no. reduction their in their maximist demands. you hear the same kind of language from Lavrov that we've been hearing And so I just don't get a sense that they really intend to do that. They probably I tell you what though, what has surprised me is the inability of the Russians to effectively stop Ukraine's attacks against their oil and gas infrastructure the long range and in the mid range drone attacks that are wrecking Russia's logistics network between Crimea and Rostov and along the Azov coast You know, they're wrecking it and then the Russians don't seem to be able to come up with ways to stop it. That That's u striking to me The other thing that's striking is Russia seems to be totally without imagination on how to continue the war. I mean, all of their the g ground operations have been across through the front. trying to push and they're literally gaining feet per day and enormous costing casualties and resources for no real you know, even tactical benefit. So they haven't changed that They're continuing to attack Ukrainian civilians So I'm not seeing kind of imagination that could somehow change the momentum or regain the initiative. that to me is maybe there's something that they're working on, but I' not seen it yet Well, Putin, and also talking about the fuel shortages and the impact on the energy infrastructure, he also did allude to their a defense problems U and so that they need to from a you know, a defense industrial base, you need to step that up So that was a very interesting admission and it does seem like the Ukrainians are having success in forcing the Russians to reconfigure their defenses, right? And so they they're having to make these choices between, okay, what resources, what infrastructure do we protect U, and You know, of course, they can't turn that around overnight. I mean, they would Everyone has that same problem. The U.S has that problem in terms of how do we rebuild stockpiles? It takes time. Well, you put your finger on a problem that every commander has, every leader has. prioritize what you protect. Nobody has enough air and missile defense capability to protect everything. So of course you have to prioritize what absolutely must be protected and so on. To me, Russia's great strength over its history was its vastness, just the sheer size of Russia that it could absorb. invading armies and then just wear them down or destroy them Now that vastness has become a vulnerability. because as you say, they can't protect everything. And now the Ukrainians have the ability to launch a drone where they u very capable warhead How to two thousand kilometers? I mean, that that's incredible that they can hit with precision factactories, oil and gas infrastructure Um ship repair facilities, military targets, at that range And that becomes almost impossible for Russia to protect effectively All of these sites General, I've got to got more pages of questions to throw your way. But first we have to take a quick break. So if you'll stay right where you are, we'll be back with more from General Hodes and just Just a brief minute, stick around Daddy Mike Baker here with some very exciting news for all of you who enjoy podcasts. There are podcasts now streaming on Fox one. That's right, Fox One, because sometimes the headline, well, you know that isn't enough. Fox One brings you on demand video podcasts that dive deeper into what's happening, getting you closer to the voices, shaping the conversation across news, politics, and culture. Don't forget culture, you want to get yourself some of that. and check this out This is the most exciting part. 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You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with EBGlS. Before starting EBGlS, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Paid partartnership with Lillily. Respect your time. Ask your doctor about EBLS and visit eGlS dot com or call one eight hundred Lillily RX or One eight hundred, five four five, five nine, seven nine. Welcome back to the PBB Situation Report. Joining me once again is retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. He's the former commanding general of US Army Europe Sir, thank you very much for sticking around you on the situation report We've been we've been talking about the the impact that the Ukrainian effort targeting Russian energy infrastructure has been having We alluded to it, you alluded to it The idea of a large mobilization perhaps by the Russian military And the last time they did that back in twenty twenty two, there was a very significant exodus of military agge Russian men from the country and it was decidedly unpopular amongst the population, although they tried to get around that by focusing on conscripts from regions outside the key urban centers U H you seen any indications that they are building up towards another mobilization, or do they seem to be able to maintain their manpower concerns despite the casualties that they're suffering on a monthly basis I think that the possibility of them having to do a major mobilization is very real they don't care about how many casualties they have From a human humanistic sort of side. The practical matter is, you know, if you lose one hundred and fifty or one and a half million troops a third of which have been killed at a You know, two thirds of which have been wounded I mean, that's even Russia will have a hard time making those good without neither wrecking their industry because obviously you need the same kind of people working in throughout the country and all their different industries. So they have Focus recruiting only poorer regions of the Russian Federation and bonuses have worked But I think they might be getting close to the end of being able to do that. So they may have to finally U Pull A young man out of the St. Petersburg area in Moscow where it will be difficult to conceal the fact that this war obviously is not going well. When you start having funerals and those metropolitan areas. U that's going to bring it home And so what I think as we were discussing earlier, the What the oligarchs think and the people around Putin and the senior military leadership think that that will be a source of pressure on Putin If it continues to go badly What I'm what I can't I'm not well educated enough on Russia to be a good judge of what the population thinks about things. How do they How do they feel? I always hear this. you know, Russians they can that can suffer better than anybody. And I think that these ol guards are not suffering that never suffer You know, so the the bottom ninety percent of the society is accustomed to suffering because they've never had it good Now And so I think I would not assume that they're willing to just continue to put up with this with so many casualties and they're said their life is not getting any better, especially when they can't buy gas. I mean, when you read But Russian the average Russian are saying on their social media about I mean, there's a there's a growing sense of anger and I don't know where or if there's a tipping point for them, but I imagine that there is You would think you would think so, although You know, you could also, you could ye move over to to Iran and say that we've we've we haven't been good over the years at reading the mood of the people in a sense, you know, from because we tend to put our Western values and they think, okay, they' they're not going to put up with that anymore You know, they're going to they're going to repel at some point. They're going to say enough is enough. We want a better life and then it doesn't work out in part because you know we do this mirroring of our perspective and our values onto other cultures Um, I'm curious about your assessment of because you referenced this in the earlier conversation. Um Putin's, you know, view on Allied support for Ukraine And and there I'm not so much thinking about U.S. support for Ukraine because that can shift almost on a weekly basis. But what's your assessment of where the EU is In terms of their support, their patience, their willingness to continue to stick with Ukraine Yeah, I think it is as strong as it's ever been and actually getting stronger Germany is the largest provider in terms of overall euro value of financial and military support to Ukraine many other countries doing the same. Sweden just announced a sale of Griffins to Ukraine. So there there's a lot that's going on U don I don't detect any lessening of the willingness of European countries to support Ukraine. I think they all realize that this is in their own best interest. If Ukraine fails, then Russia has said they will be coming to a NATO country near you and that this will expand. So So I think People are sober. They understand who the aggressor is and they understand. they can also see that the United States may not be Um as much a part of the deterrence and defense as it has been in the past And so they are they are going to have to Make sure that Ukraine is successful You know and then I think they will be actually. I think Ukraine is in fact going to actually win this war with mostly European help. And I think we in the U. S. are going to regret too some extent, if Ukraine does this without us If Europe does this without us will have less influence will become less relevant in Europe. And I don't know that that's in our best strategic interest. I'm glad the Europeans are stepping up. I'm glad Ukraine is doing what it's doing But what you know, the other side of that coin is that we we will have less influence with you know, a very important part of the world When you talk about that in terms of Ukraine, could when How do you define when? Russia goes back to the nineteen ninety one borders, the internationally recognized sovereign border of Ukraine from nineteen ninety one Um, You know, when this all started, Russia twelve years ago since then Russia still only has twenty percent of Ukraine And I think that if Ukraine continues to pound away on the oil and gas infrastructure and continues to Um, Isolate Crimea make it untenable I think there's going to be a sudden shift actually and how Russia is postured to continue fighting. I don't think it's just going to be a straight line degradation. I can imagine, particularly because of Crimea a sudden change U you mean, do you mean that what when you say it a chef? do you mean a a military shift, or are you thinking more of an internal political shift in Russia that causes this thing that so finally the military shift will cause I. Political ship You know, the te When you look at the map and you see Crimea, it's obvious why it was so important because of how it dominates everything in the Black Sea It's a launching pad for further attacks againgainst Ukraine, it can influence the ability of Ukraine and Romania to do oil and gas exploration in the Western Black Sea that disrupt shipping. I mean It's what's why the Russians wanted it so badly And u Putin has talked about it how, you know so from a psychological standpoint, It's He's personally connected to it alost the way Stalin was personally connected to Stalin Grad and then the Second World War. And so Um When it falls, when it when it's gone I mean, that will be a psychological a blow that people will wonder what the hell happen? How did this happen Why are we still fighting this war if we can't even hang on to Crimea? And that I think has the potential. Now you could rightfully say, all right, Hyjes, you've been in Ukraine over optimistic forever. and now I'm just saying what I hope happens But you know, I mean, when you study the history of warfare, and how things change, the psychological impact U Defeat is not always just a slow gradual sometometimes it can happen in a sudden sort of way. And I think Crimea has that potential Do you think there's there's a danger that if Putin senses to that that He maybe just pushes all his chips into the center of the table, mayaybe not the nuclear chip, but Everything else and just says this is it. I'm going all in Well I mean, what else is he going to do? I don't believe he would use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine because there's nothing there's no positive outcome for him if he does. There's only negative outcomes for the Russians if they do that The Chinese have said do not do this. The Indians have said, do not do this it would it would really have more negative outcomes than any positive And as most of your listeners will know that You know, a tactical nuclear weapon. There's no place on the battlefield in Ukraine where the use of a tactical nuclear weapon would all of a sudden change everything you' create a big gap that could be exploited. It's just not going to happen. So I think that's a that's an unlikely scenario Alough you can never rule it out. I mean, they have thousands of nuclear warheads and they don't care it won't be a big moral decision for the Kremlin From a prredical standpoint, you know they Um afterfter they do it, Nobody's going to be threatened or deterred by the threat of a nuclear weapon. That and that's where their nukes have been most effective for them So what could they do? The great Black Sea fleet is no longer a factor there. They They've been pushed out of Crimea U I think that Even Lukashenko and Belarus can see what's happening, you know, just a couple of weeks ago, he apologized to President Zelensky for, hey, you know, haven't been such a good neighbor and I'm sorry all this and haven't been a good neighbor. They They after Zelensky threaten them, they allegedly turned off or removed some devices that were helping Russian drones fly into Ukraine So You know, the Russians could launch a ground operation into and through Belarus and then try to attack Ukraine from the north again. but I mean, Ukrainians know this. I mean, they know their geography, they know the possibilities. so They would not be surprised and I think U Maybe they have something I just I just don't see what the Russians have other than more of what they're doing right now That's it is fascinating. And I think that it does appear as if the Ukrainian military has the access, the ability in terms of resources to continue this push against the the energy infrastructure The question then is, I guess, You know, if Putin's reaction to that is to increasingly target civilians and civilian infrastructure inside Ukraine How does that play out? and that's just pure speculation, I suppose Well, I think the Ukrainians have made it clear you they're not one of stop or or give in justust because anotherough other, you know, night full of Russian drones and missiles that have hammered apartment buildings in Kyiv or Aharkiv or Hesson or other Other cities I think the Ukrainian capability for long range strike against Russian energy infrastructure gets better each day. you know, they've they've grown not only the capability but the size of the capability that they can hit more and more targets And I don't think the Russians so far have come up with a way to stop this. U I mean, why why are they wasting missiles against apartment buildings? instead of hntting down you know, Ukraine' defense industry. Now, of course Ukrainians are aware of this and I think they figured out ways to distribute and disperse what they're doing. so you don't lose it all with one factory getting destroyed, for example I just I'll just repeat something I said earlier. I think that u So far, I don't see Russia having the imagination the creative does operational design. T to end this N Well, sir, being mindful of the time I think God You know, what I would ask as the last question is completely off subject But if you have any any wisdom for the fourth of July and I always like to ask, you know, what does someone What do you value most about the United States, about America on this fourth of July You know, it all started with the Declaration of indndependence and that people were determined that the king was not the law, but that the law was the king And so, you know, this prrotecting our laws, protecting our Constitution that guarantees all of us independence and freedom. That to me is what is most important So course. we all have to be responsible citizens But I think most Americans really value the chance. you know if I want to live here, I'm going to live here. If I want to live there, I'm going to live there If I want to do this, if I want to go school here, whatever it is I want to do Whatever it is I want to say those rights are protected by the Constitution And so You know, this weekend, we should be reminded two and a half centuries we've been able to enjoy that But u Democracy is not ballet. I mean, it is football all twenty four seven and you've got to fight to defend it. Yeah No. and I think regardless regardless of anybody's politics, you know, what I what I hope for is, you know, that we just can appreciate as Americans what we have. and it shouldn't come down to what your politics are it should come down to againgain, appreciating what you point out, which is the freedoms, freedom of movement, freedom of thought, freedom of religion everything that's wrapped into it. and I think you and I are a bit similar in the sense that we've spent a lot of our lives overseas and we've seen a lot of places that don't allow for that And and I just, you know, my hope is always that we don't take things for granted and that young people coming up don't take things for granted. Sir General Hodges, I just want to say thank you so much. Always, always appreciate your time, your expertise, your insight your experience and have a most wonderful fourth of July. I hope to see you again very soon Thanks, Mike. I' enjoy that Well, coming up next, another round of U S Iran negotiations. Supposedly, we've wrapped up another round of negotiations. I know. We'll see what comes of that? We'll ask whether the two sides are any closer. to something resembling an actual understanding. Abenam Ben Talabu from the Foundation for Defenseive Democracy's Iran program will join us to break all that down Stay with us One, two, a one, two M me a break Break, Break me off a piece of that kit. You't that b and chocolate Krispy t is gonna make your day. give me a break. G me a break. Bak me off a piece of that kat bar! Have a break Have a kid cat. And we're live from the living room as Doug eyes up the match they spread. He's reaching for the buffalo wing. Perfect. Hang on, what's this? Oh, he's going for a can of Pepsi too. Incredible What a finish! Sensational combination. Look at the delight on his face. There's no doubt about it. It just tastes better. Match days deserve Pepsi. Food deserves Pepsi. 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Eligibility restrictions apply. non withdrawable spins issued as fifty spins per day for twenty days valid for select games only and expire each day after twenty four hours. See terms at casino dot draft Kings dot com slash promos ends july twenty second at eleven fifty nine PM Eastern time Welcome back to the PDB situation repeport The U. S. and Iran have wrapped up another round of indirect talks in Doha, but the discussions appear to have produced more process than progress. Well, there was a shock, isn't it? Rather than tackling the biggest unresolved issues Tehran's nuclear program sanctions relief or its missilile and drone capabilities. Yeah, those are all pretty big unresolved issues. The talks focus largely on implementing the fragile interim agreement or memorandum of understanding that halted the fighting sort of halted the fighting. That means maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormz, frozen Iranian assets and Tehran's continued threats to control or monetize passage through one of the world's most important waterways are still being discussed, or supposedly discussed Let me bring in Benam Ben Taliblu. He's the senior Director of the Foundation for Defensive of Democracy's Iran program. Benam, thank you very much for coming back on the situation report Always a pleasure, great to be back with you Thank you. And by the way, it's a happy fourourth of July to two hundred fifteth birthday So Here's hereere's the first question I've got for you What should we believe when it comes to this theseese negotiations that are supposedly taking place. I know I sound cynical when I'm phrasing this question, but what should we believe about what's currently happening in these discussions? Well, first and foremost, a happy fourth to you and the viewers and listeners. Ironically, and I don't mean that sassidly, there are some sort of public events in the Islamic Republic today, but they're not the celebrations of America's birthday, but they're the beginning of a week long funeral for the country's former Supreme leader, Ayatola Ali Kmedate. who was killed in the early hours of the U. S and Israeli airirstrikes against the Islamic Republic in February A few of all will be going on for a week And you can tell if the funeral is going to be going on for a week, pererhaps the government of the Islamic Republic isn't going to be putting its best foot forward or putting or sending its best, if you will. for negotiations that are supposed to be going on for the next week as well. I see these talks as a time buying mechanism to be brutally honest with you a way for the Islam Republic to be able to get some sanctions relief during these sixty days and then to create the conditions where America feels like there's enough normalcy in the straight and hor moves to look the other way while also kind of continuing to tempt us with things that we are interested in getting, like access to that highlyen enrich uranium, like the restoration of IEA inspectors And to be able to push Trump into a pay to play scheme, like the Islobical Republic was able to push other presidents So the question is not what do we believe is being said to be true, but what do we think in the heart of hearts of the U. S. presresident Donald Trump? What will he settle for Yeah, and that's we could spend all day speculating on that. Let me ask you about the idea of the straight right now, the water of way U You mentioned the sanctions relief and they'll be pushing for that during the course of this sixty day stretch Um But they've already got. Is it true they'veready got sanctions relief in the sense that We've allowed them to get back into the oil markets. Yes, that's the primary vector of sanctions relief. I'm glad you mentioned that because there was a special license given genereral license X that changes or waves penalties not in water two, but in eleven. I want to stress that for the audience. eleven different regulations, statutes and even executive orders that deals with Iran's ability not just to sell oil, but to repatriate the money even in dollars of that oil revenue. And when you look at the MOU That memorandum of understanding, something else that the U. S. does is in addition to waiving these penalties, it commits to not issuing any new sanctions. So it's basically a sanctions, it's not an escalatory environment in the sixty day negotiating window And it removes the single biggest nonkinetic source of pressure. against these oil exports, which was the U. S. blockade. I, the numbers don't lie. I'm sorry for interrupting Bam. Is there any way to quantify if I don't interrupt, I typically forget what I'm about to ask. So is there any way to quantify what that means to the Iranian regime? overver the course of the next sixty days in terms of FAatT tax, in terms of money going into their bank. Well, it depends if you believe that they still have to sell oil at a discount or not But there is a way to quantify it. But first let me give it to you in barrels of folks who have better math skills than I I can be able to translate that into dollars. But in the month of February, Iran exported two point one million barrels of oil per day. In the month of March, once the war started, it exported one point one five million barrels of the worldil. This was the question mark period because You know, other countries weren't exporting and there was a war but Iran was exporting In the month of April, Iran exported about nine hundred thousand plus barrels of oil per day. About half the month was the U.S. blockade. In the month of May Those take a nosed d it. Only sixty four thousand barrels of oil per day So from nine hundred thousand to sixty four thousand barrels of oil per day Only four ships in the month of May got past the US blockade So that just shows you how effective this was Now when you're looking at the bounce back, people are estimating For the month of June, that Iran export about one point six, one point eight That's a conservative estimate. when it comes to you know, average barrels of oil per day. You multiply that times the price of oil, you minus some of the transaction costs and then you be able to look at the way the regime is able to repatriate the money it is a lot of cash and now it may not be astronomical sums that are transformational for this regime. But for this regime, there is such a thing as good enough for government work and it's trying to limp along and outlast Trump and outlast BB And so suffice to say anything greater than sixty four thousand barrels per day is going to be helping this regime get off the mat and stand back up. And that's really the fear I have for the administration, which is as it moves to tackle the harder issues, like the nuclear issue in these sixty days, it will have less, not more leverage Right. And also look they're climbing the way back up. That's, you know, what it sounds like is if those are conservative estimates for June and there was one point six. million. That's only half a million off of pre conflict numbers It sounds like when you're talking about, say going back to February, Um Am I wrong in thinking that the reason for issuing those sanctions, right? for allowing the Iranian regime to get back into the oil markets to trade in dollars was because the trade off there was a free and open strait of Hormuz. And you know that's exactly what the administration wanted. And you can even kind of envision President Trump telling the negotiators, get me this straight open at all other costs. Let's promise them some unicorns and rainbows that after sixty days we'll cross that bridge when we get there There are some things legally and politically like this sanctions waiver that are problematic in my view, if the administration has no intent on delivering on bigger relief, well, then that may be a c relief for us, but then we have to be prepared for the escalation that we were unprepared for during the fighting and during the ceasefiire. So Yes, the strait is supposed to be open, but you just saw last night, the Islam Republic threatened tankers saying if you don't use pre approved routes, we'll strike you And you see at the same time diplomatically, the Islamic Republic trying to get Oman to force it to amplify its talking points about what the future of the strait should look like. And then you also see the Islamic Republic trying to get all of these tankers and shippers to sign up with its own kind of insurance ponzi scheme and register You know, if this is a free and open international waterway, why do you have to register with the Navy of the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism So look and this is what I'm about to say is not a political statement. I don't really care. I don't have a dog in the hut in that regard. I'm just talking about from an operational perspective. If all you're talking about is negotiating tactics then what we've done is we've essentially handed over a steady stream of revenue allowing again going back into the oil markets. and we haven't gotten what we promised in return. So Why are we Why are we still engaging this? Why do you think we haven't just said that's it. You have not done your part of the bargain case closed, it's not as if we're questioning, have they have they not? They haven't So why haven't we reimposed the blockade We may havet I mean, the blockade is something that Trump Term one flirted with at the tail end of the administration, I think for Oil market reasons, for escalatory reasons, I think it avoided doing it I actually think it would have been wiser to do it earlier, but we are where we are So I think the administration is trying to balance the security concerns with the economic concerns. And if I have to be brutally honest with you, the US has fought the war and also managed the ceasefire. and I try not to make this a political statement, but it's done so politically, meaneaning it's done so with an eye towards the media. It's done so with an eye towards markets and particularly the oil market and energy prices It's done so with an eye towards the midterms. And then perhaps the final thing, which is I would say the more responsible one is that to fight it with an eye towards munitions because we do have a munitions crisis as well So the US isn't keen to rush back into Kabt, given how much it would move all of those vectors, all those Ms into the red media, markets, munitions h you name it. But at the same time, the Islamic Republic understands that And they understand so much about this kind of economic based midterm craze for the U.S to restrain itself. that you've even had a hardline Iranian commentator on a pro regime media podcast recently say that we have to make sure that Trump loses one of the houses I mean, this is exactly where we are where the Islamic Republic is basically banking on U. S. domestic politics to restrain U. S. foreign policy this level and so publicly. Well, we've talked about that here on the PDB before, which is that we're not dealing with, and I think sometimes the public makes that mistake. We're not dealing with an unsophisticated regime They have spent a long time stududying in the U. S, all the administrations that they've had to deal with and they have become extremely good at understanding how to how to work game. whatever administration is in charge And And I think we're seeing that again here. Ag, not a political statement. I'm just saying the operational realities are, it seems as if they haven't changed their playbook. And I want to get into a part of this in terms of your and this will be speculation going forward in the next couple of questions, Benaman, I apologize for that. But first we have to take a break. And so if you'll stick right around there, stay right wherever you are. And we'll be right back with more from Benet Ben Talabbu for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies right here on the PDB situation report stick around And welcome back to the BDB Situation Report. Let me bring back our guest, senior director of Foundation for the Defenseive of Democracy He Iran program, Benem Ben Tawablu. Benen, thank you for sticking around. Areciate that very much. It would have been awkward if we' come back after break and you weren't there in your chair So I appreciate that very much Let me ask you this, we were talking about Um the way that the U. S. administration has been approaching this negotiation. and you talked about how it's essentially from a political perspective. And we can't ignore that, right? With terms coming up with gas prices, alough gas prices has been falling and the White House has been very quick to point that out Um Do you think that the strategy of the Iranian regime is going to work.? And by that, I mean, where do you think the White House will settle on this? What do you think the White House will agree to call a win or a victory Well, I'm yet to see at least the administration publicly articulate the strategy and the direction that they want to go in withitness, you know, we have broad big picture understanding of the things that the Trump administration wants to deal with in terms of threats, whether that's missile, whether that's nuclear or whether that's strait or horm moves. But the tactics, how to get there, you know, those are very much up in the air And that's actually where the administration is weak and it excels at the exact same time because both its allies and its adversaries, domestic and abroad are left wondering, hedging, you know, even fearful of what may come next. And some of that is wielded strategically by the administration and some of that I can be a little bit of a political mess. I'll give you one example In the MOU, it actually links Lebanon. ceasefire in Lebanon to the agreement over the strait of hormz between the U.S and Iran And unfortunately there, that seems to be tying our partner' hand in the region, the Israelis. But on the flip side, you have this new agreement that the U. S. on the side separately carved out away from Iran, away from Hezbollah, between the central government in Lebanon in Beirut and the Israeli government in Jerusalem So in essence, even some of the weak points of the MOU, if the US steps up its game in the region, it can begin to kind of hold the line and roll back and force the Islamic Republic to say, hey, if you don't like it, you can violate the MOU. But if you violate the MOU, please know that we'll be speaking in terms of missiles, not dollars and sanctions relief And so there are things that the administration is doing to limit the damage already, in my view, of the MOU. But the challenge is some of its most powerful tools economic sanctions and moving new military forces into the region. per the text of the MOU itself, it is not allowed to be doing those things for the next sixty days. elsewhere the U.S. is looking at these diplomatically, politically Isn't that I'm sorry for interrupting. Isn't that contingent though, whether they do those things or not? That's contingent upon the Iranian regime. This is the part I think that maybe confuses people. It's contingent upon the Iranian regime holding up their end of the bargain. I had to say that I couldn't keep a straight face talking about the Iranian regime holding up their end of the bargain, but It's contingent upon that. And if they're not doing it then I get it. I understand that the White House is reluctant to get back into any sort of kinetic conflict in a big way. I get that they're worried about the midterms at a certain point Right? If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck right? I mean, you you have to call out this regime for their constant and they are consistent behavior of never negotiating a good faith. I don't know that there's a question in there, but I I'm just puzzled. As are, I think a lot of people You know, you hit the nail that head, I'm puzzled as well, but we see a playbook that the administration has levied against this where It'll say I'm comfortable talking to you, but I'm also comfortable shooting at you And in a sense, I think not this weekend, but last weekend We saw the U. S respond actually to an Iranian drone attack against a Singaporean, I think older flagged vessel that was trying to transit the strait. The U.S did intercept and strike some of the drones and it ultimately got into a little bit of a small shooting war there by firing against Iranian radars and coastal defenses and drone and missile depots in Southern Iran. And the Islamic Republic responded to that by again firing drones ballistic missiles at countries that house U. S. bases like Kuwait and Bahrain, for example which by the way, in countries that it knows will not be punching back militarily against it The problem is, you know, it was good that we signaled resol due to the drone strike, but it was bad that we let the Islamic Republic close the round And the U. S. thinking and this is actually articulated in General McKinzy's book about his experience at SenCom back in the early twenty twenties, is that what the US. takes away from the Islamic Republic in its strikes is more important than what the Islamic Republic gets in a face saving return of fire And he's talking there explicitly about the U. S killed Soleim Mani in january twenty twenty. That's Iran's chief terrorist, thatie with so much American and allied and regional blood on his hands And then on the flip side, the Islam Rublic fires, I don't know, sixteen ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases, no people die. And we kind of call it E Stephven And you know, the US looks at that as dangerous as it was as performative. The problem is in the mind of the Islamic Republic becausecause it's allowed to close the round, it is allowed to set the tempo. And in my view, there is a straight line from the fact that the regime got to close around using these dangerous weapons before to continuing to respond to every single American use of force. These guys are not backing down They are weak but they are still lethal. They are battered, but they are still confident. And now they feel like, hey, if you're taking these weapons away from us, we have a lower threshold for the use of force. So expect a lot more. Iranian use of these weapons as you begin to diminish their quantity, you will only for us grow their importance. Yeah. No, I would I would argue that I think the regime actually they're not just confident. I think they're Their confidence has increased, right? I think they view themselves in a strange way as negotiating from a stronger position than the US I think that's their interpretation of this. I could be entirely wrong. And by the way, I'm also make now it makes me wonder if there's a fararscy phrase for even Steven U but I I don't think I don't know. I'm not sure if there is I don't think there is. you mentioned from the He affection the Lebanese situation Um And we could we could spend an entire show talking about about that. I'm going to play Devil's advocate on the carve out that you mentioned, the U. S having an agreement with the Lebanese government And if I'm playing devil's advocate there, I'm going to say that doesn't mean anything. because the Lebanese government can't control Hezbollah. neverever has been able to And so any agreement we have And I think there's rarely government knows this, but they're I think they're they're playing ball. I think they're, you know, they they understand that they've got a certain role here that they're going to have to play and I guess my question is Am I wrong to be cynical about any discussion, any agreement, any understanding with the Lebanese government because of that inability to control Hezbollah You're not wrong to be cynical because ultimately it does come down to the number of men you have on the ground as well as the amount of guns and violence that they wield, and unfortunately they There still are areas where the LAF, despite the Ford and the Western and even American financial support that they've gotten over the years, they still are fearful of going in and you know, disarming Hezbollah. Now that's not necessarily what this calls for. because previous know political agreements and UN resolutions have called for that ultimately to have the Israelis be the only one who can militarily do this. What the Lebanese state, which is, again, also weak, fears But since the past few years haszb been at least willing to politically publicly call out Hezbooldah, it fears the resumption of civil war And that's one reason why the LAF can't and perhaps won't do this. But why this agreement is important is this shows that the Islamic Republic diplomatically will not have free reign and will diplomatically not lean on America to lean on Israel, to lean out of Lebanon. It actually is the US kind of writing Israel back into the script It's kind of an American version of E Stephven. You got the MOU where you thought you had the regional ceasefire. Now we're going to get this bilateral agreement that kind of writes the Israelis back in. And then it goes to the Lebanese. It goes to the hopeful folks who say, hey, If you do think that the LAF is this kind of actor, let's begin with pilot zones. This is something that people have talked about for a long time because theseraelis occupy a certain part of the southern portion of that country, whyy don't we begin with isot cellves where there's phase withdrawals and phase takeovers. And if those areas are secure and Hezbollah doesn't cause a problem there, well, then we have a roadmap of how to replicate phase withdrawal, phase take overver and to deal with the Hezbollh threat in that area But we've gone through this route before where supposedly the, you know, admittedly it was more of the unifil the UN you know, force was supposed to Oh you take over areas that you know, would then be free of Hezbollah influence and involvement And of course that didn't appear to work. So I'm just wondering, again, I don't need to sound, I don't need to sound so cynical. You've got to you've got to try these things. I get it. You have to have diplomacy. You have to make the effort. You never want to get to a point where we just throw your hands up and say that's it. we have no other option but kinetic force. Sometimes I think you actually do find yourself in that position, but I'm just wondering, you know, what makes this different than previous efforts I would say it's a win win because one what makes it different is it nullifies an Iranian diplomatic play. I see the Iranians coming out on top diplomatically in the MOU because of the hand tying, because of the linkage of Lebanon to this Strait Aporz crisis I see this as delinkage and freeing up Israeli hands. So that that is my even, Steven. that at least diplomatically on paper, the Iranians's got to win there. Now here's where we put we get the American win and we get these really win. Second is you're absolutely right. The history shows that this is probably not going to work out because of the resolve of the actors on the ground, this is probably going to be something that goes to be kinetic But that means that hey, at least there's some kind of a legal political attempt to resolve the situation without making things genetic And the third citizen of the Lebanese government claims to want to do this. let's transfer the burden ono them. You know, they want the Israelis out, they want the Hezblah issue to deal with. These you know, sometimes are two sides of the same coin Do you have the capacity? Do you have the capability? Do you have the wherewithal to do this And then third, perhaps for the administration who wanted, at least, you know, the guns to fall silent across the region, whether they're allies or adversaries. If the administration doesn't understand that there's ultimately going to have to be some kind of military force used here, perhaps not by us, but by the Israelis And they are looking to find any way to plug that hole. And if they try this and it fails, well perhaps that's a way to disabuse themselves of the fact that A, there is no military solution or there is no military option. pererhaps even this might be one way for themselves to say, hey, look, we tried. you know, the challenge with the U.S. this is not to the Trump administration is that weress we come to meet a whole host of problems and we treat them as fresh And sometimes administrations replicate paths that previous other folks had gone down because they simply hadn't been the ones to try. Well, now the administration is the one to try, and we'll see how far the administration gets. And we'll see how resolute the US will be in trying to delink Lebanon from this MOU, and we'll see how resolute the Iranians are in trying to relink it pererhaps there in the crisis that emerges, we'll have the back of our ally on balance and we'll have the in the legal political understanding with our adversary Yeah. No look, I think you raise it. Really interesting kind of top line your point here, which is sometometimes it seems we don't really learn from even recent history And we'd also have this issue of every administration, well frankly, every generation thinks that they can do whatever it was that was attempted before, they can do it better Right And that's that's not a bad thing. That's I think it's it's kind of a human trade. Maybe it's even a you know, more of an American trade that, you know, we will get this right this time, you know, it may not have worked before, but we're going to do a wr. All you got to do is, you know, look at Afghanistan and you know, the follow up after the Soviet Union, you know, abandoned Afghanistan. which could have probably learned something there Let me ask you this, to tie things up, I'm got to be mindful of time U This is pure speculation. I realize that. But Benam, where do you think we're going to be at the end of this sixty day MOU period I think certainly in the Levants with Lebanon and Israel, I would say The situation would limp along. In the Strait of Hormuz, I'll say sixtycent to eighty percent of the traffic, which is close to what it is now restored, but restored under a situation of crisis where the Islamic Republic is working kind of politically, legally, with a knife in one hand, with a handshake in another, against individual tankers, against insurance companies, against the flags of certain vessels that tried to create a new order for ships that are looking to enter and exit the Straight of for Muz. But at the negotiating table between Tehron and Washington you know, whether that's being hosted by the Qataris or the Pakistanis, which, you know we didn't have time to get into, but they have their own to sink into this no I would say it's going to limp along and that means that in allLse equal I think the administration is going to make a play to say you know, we're quite close. We need a little bit more time to negotiate. and I fear that they'll kick the can down the road because it is written into the MOU that this is mutually extendable And you know my fear is that the position we're going into is that this is not the twenty fifteen Obama era nuclear deal. The context is different, the relief is different, the situation is different. But this is looking like the negotiating period between the twenty thirteen and twenty fifteen deal Where that twenty thirteen deal focused on one issue, this deal focuses on the Strait of Hormmoons. There was limited sanctions relief there. There was limited sanctions relief here And then that deal tried to carve out time and political space for a larger agreement. And now these folks might try to carve out time and political space for a larger agreement. And I think even if you take a cynical approach by the administration and say, yeah, we'll do whatever it takes just to get to the midterms or just stabilize markets and get media to calm down, while we build up on the munitions front. Well, then you will have to kick the can down the road because mid August is when the sixty days is up and I think august twenty first is when the sanctions waiver is up. So keep your eyes on August Yeah, I'd I think you're right You know, I would be in agreement with that assessment. I think that But look, Abbe administration has kicked the can down the road when dealing with the Iranian regime. That to our point earlier about we don't seem to learn much from recent history, it's not uncommon And You know, the problem is nothing really changes. We just keep putting a band aaid on a sucking chest wound over all these years. Nothing really ever changes in that part of the world until that regime just goes away And of course, nobody's got a really good idea on how to make that happen other than just internal uprising that finally removes that regim Just a brief footnote there. what the president should do in these sixty days is really unleash the intelligence agencies, authorize them to come up with a defection strategy, authorize them to have a playbook for the next time the regime shuts down the internet authorize them to actually have a way to materially support Iranian protesters if that's something that the administration wants to go down on The country is a failed state anyway. It was sliding towards failed state status even before the protests, even before the war. So this will be an issue that raises its head for the Trump administration again, deal or no deal, war, no war. The question is, will we be ready for it? Well, Benham, as always, Ben, listen, thank you very much. the insight, the experience. Really appreciate it. and I appreciate you taking the time here just before the fourth of July