China's Ethnic Unity Law and Implications

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So habits and proficiency form naturally When every person on your team works at their best, that's when your AI investment starts to compound. See what suuperhuman can do at superhuman. com This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a fifty page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check Rponssees set upp required compatibility and availability varies eighteen plus My concern is that because the Chinese models are open source It will not be Chinese models used in China and US models used in the US. It'll be Chinese models used in China and everywhere else in the world and US models used in the US. It's possible the US may try to corral European countries into using only US models But that would be a big heavy lifting operation if the US was to try to do that S. Well, welcome to China D Code. I'm Alice Han. And I'm James King In today's episode of China De Code, we're discussing China test firing a ballistic missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific A Chinese AI model that rivals anthropic and a new ethnic unity law drawing criticism That's all coming up, but first let's do a quick check in with how the markets in China are starting the week On Monday, the CSI three hundred was mostly flat Well the Shanghai composite was down slightly zero point zero six percent The SXinjen component, however, fell one point one six percent to a three week low. Bank stocks saw gains with the indndustrial and commercial Bank of China up one point one four percent and the agricultural Bank of China up one point one nine percent. Notable falls were with Eoppto Link technology down three point six percent and Victory giant technology down nearly five percent All right, let's get into it. On Monday, China test fired a ballistic missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean Only the second time it has done so in two years. The launch coincides with Australia and Fiji announcing a new mutual defense treaty. showing how China's growing missile capabilities are accelerating a broader regional defense buildu Meanwhile, in China, Europe relations The EU's ongoing attempts to balance the trade deficit with China have hit a new hurdle Soaring temperatures The block's worst ever heat wave is driving unprecedented demand for imports of Chinese made conditioners which was making serious inroads at undercutting the deficit reduction push Cooling demand has been pushed to its highest level in at least forty five years James, I'm in Spain at the moment, which is quite sweltering. It's in the sort of thirty five region. But the UK a few weeks back, you know we werere both based there was I was so close to forty. We seeing record temperatures across Europe and I was just looking at some of the figures of Chinese air conditioners being imported by the Europeans. So in the first five months, we saw a ten percent rise in household air conditioners imported from China to Western Europe Apparently seventy percent year on year rise on that same period of portable fans of portable air conditioners from China to Europe. And I see a lot of those on the trains in the UK, I have to say on the London trains where they're very much needed But the reason this image is so startling is that on the one hand, you have Europe you know, undergoing blistering heat, but also undergoing record trade deficit with China. We just saw the Chinese commommist Minister Wong Won talk in Brussels. A bit of a nothing burger in terms of what came out of it, but they apparently engaging in a strategic dialogue for a framework. They will probably be unveiled in October But it seems like the Europeans haven't really been on the offensive in terms of trying to seriously address these deficit concerns. James, we will go to the Europe and Heat dimension in just a bit. I want to start firstly in terms of this ballistic missile launch with a dummy warhe that China has just made And it's obviously ried a lot of the Asia Pacific countries, Australia, my own country, being one of them What was your read of that? Because the Chinese readout was, hey, this is very bog standard military exercise that we do in the region, nothing to worry about, but it certainly has caused a lot of conernation amongst some of the surrounding countries. Yeah, absolutely, Alice. I mean, I think, you know, the world is getting hotter, geopolitically, climactically and in terms of Trade tensions And yeah, as you say, I mean, it is pretty tough in the UK at the moment without air conditioning, but we'll come to that in a minute. I think this issue of this long range ballistic missile that was fired by China with a dummy warhead. In other words, it wasn't armed, of course And it landed somewhere in the Pacific Ocean. We don't exactly know where This happened, as you mentioned, just hours after Australia had signed a defense pact with Fiji. I think it definitely shows assertive behavior by China And that assertive behavior we can see in so many other domains right now. I think that's to me the theme that binds together what we're seeing in European trade, what we're seeing in China's military assertiveness. And I also think that this is particularly relevant to the United States because if you look at the detail of this missile, it does appear at least to me that this was also a veiled warning to the United States and that's because According to the official Chinese media, the missile that was fired from a submarine was likely to have been the JL three Now that is, as I said, a submarine launch missile. And the point is that this missile could reach the continental United States from Chinese coastal waters, according to the Pentagon. Although we're talking about a missile that was launched into the Pacific and it had a dummy warhead, not a real warhead, we can see that in terms of signaling This is basically saying to the West, to the United States and certainly to Australia, Fiji and anyone else who cares to watch It's saying don't mess with us. We are a growing and increasingly assertive military power And for that reason, I think that the context around this is also key. China has been launching many, many more combined military exercises with different countries. in fact, more than forty five partner countries in the decade that ended in twenty twenty five It's conducted more than one hundred and fifty four of these combined exercises and mostly with Russia. the scope of the exercises has also increased It's done exercises in the Pacific, Indian Ocean and around Africa, and it's had extensive voyages, naval voyages, this is around Australia So to me, this is part of the same picture, this missile test into the sea somewhere in the Pacific. Obviously, it's part of another big picture, which is China's very rapid expansion of its missile arsenal China is supposed to have, we think, estimates say, around five hundred ballistic missiles currently. But by twenty thirty five, It is projected to have about one thousand five hundred nuclear warheads which could be delivered on ballistic missiles by that time. So this is part of a much bigger picture. It's part of the rise of an assertive China And, you know, to flip that to the trade domain We've got another side of an assertive China emerging, and it's showing in China's trade surplus with Europe. that is really hitting the big time this year Last year it was three hundred sixty billion euro and this year, the estimate is that it will top Four hundred billion euro So I don't know what you think of it of the trade side of things or maybe if you want to talk about ballistic missiles, Alice, but On the trade side of things, you came in talking about these air conditioners. This is just one example of the way that Europe seems to be ineluctably drawn to importing Chinese stuff. And I suppose that's because Chinese stuff is so much cheaper. It's often better in terms of technology than what the Europeans can produce. But structurally it seems to me sitting here in Europe that Europe is really very weak. When it comes to industrial production and producing things that Europeans can buy. And that's simply why, whether it's a heat wave causing us to import air conditioners or in the middle of winter, if there's a cold snap, we'll be importing Chinese heat pumps, I'm sure of it. It just seems that these days we turn to China for all of our needs What do you make of it, Alice? Yeah, I know that on the surface these two stories don't look too int linked But hopefully we can convince people that they somewhat are, right? Because on the one hand, You see China that is worried about the geopolitical situation. And I think that that exercise is more of a deterrece strategy than an offensive, sabre rattling one. It's to show, hey, we have long range missiles with capabilities to reach Australia to reach the U. S and you don't mess with us in a period where we've seen a lot of geopolitical uncertainty and uncertainty that's increasing. And I don't think it's a coincidence that Fiji and Australia the sign that mutual defefense Treaty, China has been, you know, engaged in an influence campaign with the Pacific Island countries. And, you know, my counterparts in Australia have been worried about that. know the amount of Chinese investment that's gone into, say a Fiji which was the first Pacific island country to diplomatically recognize China, by the way. But also the telecommunications and infrastructure development that is almost completely Chinese at this point in a lot of these countries, including Fiji So I think that there is one side which is from Chinese's vantage point We want to maintain influence in the Pacific. We also want to deter any kind of a coalition building or you know offensive coming from the Qad or coming from the U.S by showing that we have these ballistic missile technologies and capabilities. On the one hand It's trying to strategically deter. On the other hand, it is showing that it is still very much embedded in the multilateral trade system. The numbers that you just cited in terms of the trade deficit that Europe is running with China now almost close to four hundred. It could be this year a billion euros of trade deficit between EU and China The EU is fifteen percent of Chinese exports in terms of market destination. It's a huge market for Chinese manufacturers. So China is still heavily dependent. We've spoken previously on this export engine. Net exports are thirty percent of total GDP growth I have You know, in a way, I think they're kind of playing this balancing action being tough on the geopolitical issues, but really still I would argue somewhat vulnerable on the trade issues But the big question here is why isn int Europe doing more Because I think that they have some leverage to bear, given what I've just noted, China's trade dependencies in its total macro machine, but it's also a dependency on Europe as a huge market So all I can point to is this structural fragmentation in Europe as this super national body to try to get its act together and put in legislation is smart in terms of you know maybe price minimums on Chinese exports, limitations on the amount of exports that come into certain markets getting smart about IP development being based in Europe and not just assembled in Europe. But the big question and here I defer to you, James as the expert is why isn't Europe doing more? Because I think it could have a lot of leverage. That is absolutely the key question, Alice. I do note that the EU and China recently released a rare joint statement aims at balancing trade and addressing market access issues. And the two sides said that they would set up a bilateral working group to monitor trade flows Beijing offered reassurances that existing rare earth and permanent magnet controls will not disrupt EU supply chain. So that's the official sort of picture. But to be honest with you, I sort of my feelings on this are similar to what you just described, Alice. I feel that Europe is fatally disunited on this issue cannot get consensus among the member States of the European Union to actually impose stiff tariffs or other forms of restrictions on Chinese imports And they don't seem to have the political clout push European exports to China either And so the reason why this is important is that we're not just talking about trade balances here. We are talking about the end game for Europe European industry. Europe stands to lose its industrial base. and I don't make any apology for speaking in such blatant and blunt terms. It really is that simple The reason is that China has overtaken Europe comes to technological advancement and the technology products that China is producing are way cheaper than the nearest competitors in Europe That's why we've seen this flood of high tech products. Everybody knows about the EVs that the Europeans are buying from China, but this's happening in almost every sector. And this is why we are in a very important moment It seems to me that Europe has not yet imbibed the necessary sense of crisis that attends this situation. And while it doesn't, while it remains fairly flabby sort of talking around the issues like your boy seems to do, without coming out with strong staunch action, it is presiding over the well, I won't say extinction of its industrial base, but certainly the weakening and erosion of its industrial base, which is going to take decades to build up again if it loses it. So this is a vitally important and as I said at the top, it's a geopolitical question Therefore, I think it does belong with the story about the ballistic missile landing in the middle of the Pacific. Yeah, becausecause in the question, which we've discussed in previous episodes of this Taiwan crisis risk and what will be the corollaries or outcomes or responses from some of these other countries, whether it's the US, we've talked about Japan and Korea, Australia in the past But another question is what is the EU going to do, right? Because China is a huge Obviously market, but it's also a big exporter of a lot of goods that the Europeans require. We haven't discussed at Rare us yet, but that's another choke point that the Chinese have over the Europeans that they have not yet weaponized, but they have with the Japanese. The big question for the Europeans will be, what will you do when there is a Taiwan crisis if there's an invasion, a blockade O quarantine Will you put economic financial, you know, technological sanctions on China and then Will China react in kind? And here I think Europe could be quite vulnerable to a China couna response, which is I'd imagine something in the vein of will cut off exports of critical technologies and rare ear commodities I can imagine that that would be hugely disestruptive for the Europeans and will also import less agricultural products and chemicals products from the Europeans. Again, very, very disruptive for European business. Yep. I fear that you're right there too, Alice. I think China's got so much coercive power that it could use, it is easy to imagine a scenario under which China does something that Europe doesn't like and then China threatens to use these coercive powers and Europe backs off. I think that's also highly possible. Okay we'll be back with morea after a quick break. stay with us Support for the show comes from Framer. If your team wants a website that looks and feels handcrafted but is still fast to ship Framer is built for that. You design on a visual canvas with responsive layouts hosting and a CMS built in so the work is production ready from day one aggents work alongside you to draft pages and polish sections Then you review and publish what goes live. 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That way, you can hire with confidence without making it feel like a full time job LinkedIn hiring Pro simplifies the entire process all the way from writing your job post to shortlisting candidates and running AI powered initial interviews. plus It does it all through a conversational interface where you can just describe what you're looking for in plain language LinkedIn says nearly sixty percent of hireers find someone to interview within a week With hiring proro, you spend less time searching and more time connecting with the right talent. So instead of sifting through biles of rosemares You get a, high quality shortlist that actually moves things forward Join the two point seven million small businesses using LinkedIn to hire. Get started by posting your job for free at linkedIn dot com slash pro Terms and conditions apply Welcome back Speaking of AI, there's more exciting news coming from Chinese models, specifically GLM five point two from ZAI. It was released in mid June, but just last week, ZAI launched ZCode, a harness for its model that lets it function as an autonomous coding agent. The model is said to rival Chat GPT five point five and Claude So James, a lot of chat in the news about how Antropic just cut off its latest Claud fable and mythos models from non U.S users They were clearly worried about the fact that the Chinese have been distilling a lot of their cutting edge models. They're also worried about the national security risk and pressure from Washington to make sure that this is indigenized, this technology is indigenized as possible so that American businessusinesses and the military intelligence community have a step up or a leg up relative to other countries. And they have been forced to comply with the US. Department of Commerce's export controls that are now not just applied to chips and equipment, but also to increasingly AI models, right But the big news that came out of China just recently is there's a couple of models orted to be competitive in this space. There's one, for instance, a cybersecurity firm called three hundred sixty seecurity Technology has apparently unveiled two AI powered cybersecurity tools that could rival Anthropics's mythos. And then obviously, as I've mentioned, you've got Jppul's GLM five point two. This is an openwight model can download and use that is supposed to be as competitive as a new cutting edge claed code or even cursor code. So the big question then is How accurate are these statements? Can we test them out? And how do we compare them even against the cutting edge models that may not may or may not be available to a lot of non Americans because of the Department of Commerce's shadow on controls. I find this exceptionally hazy and opaque And would welcome anybody to come and tell me what the best benchmarks or testing mechanisms are to really compare. But this whole world seems to be moving so quickly and yet it's so opaque. Yeah, I couldn't agree more, Alice.. This is really hard work to keep up with all of this. As I see it, basically we have of trends going on here. First of all, the AI race between the US and China is kind of diverging We're getting a separation, certainly in terms of the users of these models. The other thing that's happening is that China is catching up. it's producing more and more very impressive pieces of technology. I think this is you know a very considerable move by China. And as you mentioned, Alice, it takes This Dple GLM five point two into the arena with some of the best, like the Claude Opus four point eight. Almost all of these Chinese LLMs and agents are open source And this means They can be downloaded pretty much anywhere in the world and used by anybody who wants to develop their own AI products. And so what we're seeing is vast numbers of people all over the world downloading these very good Chinese LLMs. Alibaba's Quen, for instance, appears to have surpassed one billion downloads worldwide And this Juu, GLM five point two, has climbed to the top of the Western usage charts on third party development platforms such as Open Rotter So we can see that the Chinese open source approach as opposed to The US approach, which is much more closed, is creating a really big following internationally. I'm not going to call it, I never call the AI race between the US and China. I think that's a mugs game. Basically, China seems to be ahead in some areas, the US is ahead in other areas. It's basically neck and neck as I see it But what I would say is that This latest GLM five point two is another reminder that China's doing some very impressive stuff. And you see this in Chinese tech companies, they basically subsidize usage, make it a fremium model to try to get subscribers to get onto their platform. They've done this with developers. they increased their data quaras For existing subscribers fif Deepcent offered five million free tokens to new users And at the same time, you know shout out to my friend Kevin Shreu who writes the great AI blog Inconnected, he's saying that this is a bigger deal than the deep seek moment. And if he says that, I'm listening. Apparently he's noting that according to the arena's agent Lapord that the Digitort AI's GLM five point two is the only open model that is competitive with open AI and Antropics's latest LLMs and, you know, it reportedly accccording to this leaderboard bested Claude Fabable on Design Arena. So There are areas in which they seem to be as competitive, but I think when I broadened it out to this geopolitical question And I made this prediction probably a few episodes back. It's only a matter of time before Washington starts cracking down on this You know, they probably don't like the fact that So openly you've got developers in Silicon Valley and elsewhere that are using CQuen and Jipool and Chinese open source, right? And so and on the other side, there seems to be these guardrails that Anthropic is now putting in because they're very worried about distillation. And they've made it very clear compared to open AI that China is the strategic threat were strategic challenge for the U. S. AI community. And so apparently they're able to covertly track now Chinese users of their Claud code platform. They've got this hidden tracking code that is basically able to pick up on you know Chinese users using it. And the idea is to prevent future distillation efforts. So this space is getting politicized or geopoliticized very, very rapidly. And wouldn't surprise me if we end up with some kind of AI iron curtain being know pushed by both Beijing and Washington. Absolutely, Alice. That's a very interesting thought provoking phrase. And I have to say, you did predict this several episodes ago. And it does seem that if this trend continues, there will be this divergence between the U.S models and the Chinese models. My concern is that because the Chinese models are open source It will not be Chinese models used in China and US models used in the US. It'll be Chinese models used in China and everywhere else in the world and US models used in the US Um, this is the big concern because I can't see a country in Europe, let's say, which has none of its own AI LLMs or very, very few and none of them nearly as impressive as the Chinese or the Americans are producing. I can't see countries over here, let's say, saying okay, you're not allowed to use Chinese LLMs. because we simply don't have other choices. It's possible the US may try to corral European countries into using only U.S models But that would be a big heavy lifting operation if the US was to try to do that. So I feel that your iron curtain analogy actually may come to pass in some shape or form But don't you think James that in a way, Washington under this administration is killing the golden goose so to speak, because if it's telling anthropic, hey, you're not allowed to release the latest fable or mythos to foreign nationals If you're a European going back to Europe, what are you going to do Right And then there is no real clear argument that, hey, we're going to pick American models because Americans are also national securitizing This AI issue U and Chinese models are cheaper You know, we do run some kind of a security risk, but what can we do? Because we don't have models that are as competitive as the two countries, right? On the open source question, which I think we shouldn't take our eyes off of, is Nvidia getting into the mix? NvidDia is now offering open source LLMs because it's a big believer in that ecosystem So maybe it's not fair to say that the bifurcation or breakdown between China versus the U.S on the AI front is open source versus close source. Maybe it's more an idea of, yes, China has predominantly open source, but there are some important open source players hugging face in Europe Nvidia now is a big one in the U.S. And I'd imagine that with the frustrations that people have because of Washington politicizing the closed models like anthropic There may be some more entrance into the market like NVidia in the open source space where things are harder to control politically That's a very good point, Alice. That's a very good point. Yes. off course Nvidia is putting out open source models So it's not as simple as a clear bifurcation between Chinese open source and US closed source. Things are shifting, things are varying. This is an endlessly complicated and rapidly evolving situation. It's very hard to draw clear conclusions. But one thing is for certain and that's what you've been describing, which is that the temperature of the rivalry between the US and China is rising. Well we keep coming back to rising temperatures both in the climate and in geopolitics. Let's take one last quick break. stay with us. When you need to build up your team to handle the growing chaos at work, use Indeed sponsored jobs. It gives your job post the boost it needs to be seen and helps reach people with the right skills, certifications, and more. Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. 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A new ethnic unity law in China came into effect on july first and is drawing criticism while the Chinese government works to promote and defend the measure So James, this ethic Unity and progress promotion law was introduced by the National People's Congress Ethnic Affairs Committee on september eighth, twenty twenty five, and it was signed into law and became effective july first, twenty twenty six. And just for context, I think a lot of people don't understand this about China. There are around fifty five recognized ethnic minority groups. They account for about nine percent of the population, which is still predominantly Han Chinese. That's about ninety one percent of the population And obviously throughout history, there have been periods of ethnic conflict and division. you know if you go back to the Yuan dynasty, China was taken over by the Mongols, and you go back to the Qing Dynasty, China was also taken over by the Manchurians in the Qing Empire So it's fair to say that China is a lot more multiethnic than people understand it to be. But this has become a political issue under the Chinese Communist Party because a big part of the core tenant of the CCP since its founding in nineteen forty nine as the head of the People's Republic of China is this idea of ethnic unity My own take on this is that it's grounded in a desire for political unity and control and a fear that because China hass had periods of, you know the warring states of warlordism, of great instability Creating ethnic unity and political unity are important in ensuring political stability. So when I look at this and I look at some of the language about you know trying to avoid and preclude foreign agents who undermine ethnic unity and ethnic stability. I look at that as You know and maybe this is a simplification so correct me. I look at that as the government saying, hey, we need to make sure that we ensure political stability. We don't have protests and unrest and make sure that there aren't these foreign agents that are trying to undermine our political unity. I think that the first thing is that this new law The ethnic Unity law for short took effect on july first and that's why we're talking about it now The next thing I think that's really significant about this is that it appears to give China extra territorial powers. In other words, it appears to give China powers to enforce Chinese law in other parts of the world. And in this regard, the critical article of the law is Article sixty three. which states that organizations and individuals side, mainland China, who commit acts quote aimed at China close quote. undermine ethnic unity are quote are to be pursued for legal responsibility in accordance with the law. Now That's a very vague statement. What does that actually mean? How do you define aimed at China. That could be virtually anything, I would say. And then the other side of it the question of being pursued for legal responsibility in accordance with the law. What does that mean Um pursued. Do that mean arrested U does it mean seent a letter? Does it mean sent an email telling you to stop doing whatever you're doing? Does it mean reported on or legal responsibility, what kind of legal responsibility are we talking about? So it is a very vague law. And I have to say that you know, in the interest of balance, Beijing says that this law is intended to protect national minorities, fifty five of them in China and many of them living abroad as well So The first thing to say about this is that we really don't have a clear sense of what this law means in practice However O concern of this law is mean something like the following. We all know that the Dalai Lama who is recognized as the spiritual leader of Tibetan people, some Tibetan people living abroad, some Tibetan people living in China. He is ninety one years old What would it mean if China decides that the Dalai Lama is acting in a way that is aimed at China or inimical to the interests of China. I mean, China regularly calls the Dalai Lama a splitist, a separatist trying to split China So if this is the case, then What would happen there? Would China invoke this law to go after the Dalai Lama? Would they try to apprehend him and bring him to China to stand trial. I mean, we just don't know It's really not that clear But what I would say is significant in this is that is giving China extra territorial powers. If China chooses to use them or decides to use them, that could mark a significant shift in the way that China conducts itself around the world. So I think that's really key. Do You find that a lot of and I look back to say sanctions law in particular in technology that a lot of the time China will announce, whether it's the unreliable entities listing or the anti blocking law, certain legislation, but not necessarily enforce it. they use it as a kind of option so to speak If something happens that they don't like, they at some point may weaponize that. But in general, is it fair to say that we shouldn't see this as a kind of trigger happy activity where they're going to go out and find different groups, whether they're you know Chinese or otherwise that are undermining this ethnic political unity. Are they really going to be, I guess what I'm trying to say going on the offensive and trying to find these people and stop them and sanction them Or is it really going to be a symbolic move when they're upset with certain policies from a particular country or activities from a particular group or individual. It's a really good question. I really don't think it's clear at the moment. One thing I would say as part of the big picture is that U you know, we've seen the way that the US has been invoking extrerritorial laws on China. I mean, all of the U.S entity lists, the lists of Chinese companies that foreign countries are restricted from dealing with because of US law, right? That's an extrerritorial law. I mean, if you're telling a European country that it can't deal with a certain Chinese company, then that is extrerritorial And I would say that this might be in some senses, an answer to that type of extrerritorial pressure that is coming from the US. We've seen, I would say the start of it in some of the laws that China's been coming up with. In May this year, the Ministry of Commerce in China issued an enforcement order blocking U. S. sanctions imposed on five Chinese companies related to Iranian oil transactions. That's just one small example, but basically I would say that law is going extr territorial all over the world. This is not just a Chinese thing. And so maybe it's part of that, maybe it's u It's related to that, but it's got different aims and different antecedents. It's really hard to tell at the moment because as I said, this is a very vague law. And it reminds me a little bit evenven though it's not in the same category of the extraterritorial laws that were unveiled last year you recall for Rare Eth James, in which if you actually read the fine print, they were saying as if something was as little as zero point eight percent comprised of Chinese originated rare earths. then it could be subject to Chinese export restrictions. They haven't yet weaponized that, but that was a pretty expansive extraterritorial insert they put into the new export restrictions on raare Eths But my take and the reason why I lumped that in the category of this one is that In a way, it's more about the symbolism as opposed to being, you know an offensive legislation that they're going to go out on and to really try to find people and stop them. I think it's more like are they worried about a particular group or a particular country? Because remember, a lot of other countries have agency. When I look back to some of the sanctions over the Uyur rights issues, labor rights issues, Chinese issued sanctions on European ministers, European Union also issued sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals in response. So it becomes a bit of a multip polar trap in the sense that you have escalation dominance or escalation potential on both sides. And I want to take it a little bit back maybe to the domestic side of things, which I find interesting because as a historian, a big part of what the CCP and AMo first tried to do is to really nationalize the system Because if you recall, China is a multi ethnic but also a multi dialectical country. You know, My own people are from Shanghai. Shanghai is a very particular dialect. If anyone who's not living in Shanghai speaks to a Shanghaninese person, they can find it very difficult to understand them. And you know very early on when the communists came to power, they enforced a you know, unified writing system and simplified, made sure that schools use Mandarin as their primary language And this law in effect is trying to reinvigorate, I think some of those moves, because you know, it's saying that Schools and government agencies must use mandarin primary language and the curriculum needs to quote unquote, forge a strong sense of the community of the Chinese people. There's also an element of trying to make sure that people speak the same language and think the same way, right? And you know, we talked about the extraterritorial dimension, but there's also this kind of internal unity dimension. And it know comes up in the education system, in the political system. But I thought that that was another interesting aspect of this law. It's harkening back to the legacy of Mao Yeah, absolutely. I think the last thing to say on this from my side would be that it has attracted criticism from abroad oututside China. I'll just mention a couple of those. A UN letter from eight former spepecial rapporteurs said earlier on this year that the law could violate at least twelve international human rights treaties that China has ratified. That's the first thing. And then the other piece of reaction has been Fr the European Parliament, which adopted a resolution in April this year condemning this law, we're talking about the ethnic unity law and warning that it could intensify the systematic suppression of ethnic identities. That's a quotation and further strain relations between the EU and China China has rejected those criticisms. So you know, this is yet another point of tension between the West and China or is evolving into that? Yeah. And the last thing that I will have to say, James, you know as much as this is a political issue, I have noticed again, this is more of a cultural observation as a political one based on travel to China that there is more of an opening up and I would say from everyday people an appreciation of different dialects and different ethnic minority groups a celebration of their cultures. You know, I was in Junan a couple two years ago and it's the most dense area for ethnic minorities in China. You've got the Myiao, you've got the Hui. you've got a lot of different ethnic groups there And everyday people in China are keen to learn about their different cultural practices So I just wanted to offer a flip side, which is yes, this seems like a bit of a politically sensitive and potentially controversial issue, but I have detected at least in everyday Chinese society that There still isn't a growing appreciation for the ethnic minority groups and not just the Han Chinese identity Yeah, I would definitely agree with that. I have personal friends who very much respect certain ethnic minority cultures and religions in China. and I very much hear from them exactly the same trend that you're talking about. All right, James, you know what time it is? It is prediction time As you peer into the crystal Ball for the future this week, or what do you see? Okay, I'm going back to the big ic for me, which is the EU's commercial relationship with China