Societal Shifts and Future Outlook

Support for the show comes from O do. Running a business takes everything you've got. and a lot of the tools out there that are supposed to make your life easier just aren't great talking to each other. And that means you end up having toggle between a dozen different apps and services just to keep the lights on Enough of that, now there's OdDu, the all in one fully integrated platform that might actually help you get it all done. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo. com. That's odoo d. com Support for the show comes from Odu Running a business is hard enough So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other Introducing Odu It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e commerce and more And the best part, Odu replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you Try Odoo for free at odoo. com That's ODOo d. com Support for this show comes from Vetch Pet Insurance Do you have a pet Every six seconds, a pet owner in the US gets hit with a vet bill of over a thousand dollars. and it's almost always an unwelcome surprise That's where fetch pet insurance comes in. Fetch is the most complete pet insurance. Get paid back up to ninety percent of vet bills. You can use any vet in the US and Canada. All vets are in network. Go to fetchpet dot com slash save right now for your free quote. That's fetchpet dot com slash save I'm Scott Galloway, and this is no Mercy, no malice The most transformative technology with the greatest asymmetric upside isn't Chat CPT five GLP ones the weight as read by George Han God, I'm sick of talking about SpaceX. M more impressive than the Falcon Heavy Rocket and it is impressive is Elon Inc's ability to manufacture scarcity. Getting the NSDAQ to waive requirements applied to every company until now So he can force index funds to purchase shares Aims a demand cannon of seventy five billion dollars at a business with a small float the result price that in no way reflects the underlying value. I digress This isn't an investment But a trade So Where to invest Technology with the greater asymmetric upside, as well as the clearest path to transforming the economy and the well beinging of more than two hundred million Americans, Isn't Falcon nine boosters or GPT five GOP ones US obesity rates have tripled over the last sixty years Our instincts developed over hundreds of thousands of years when food was scarce haven't kept pace with industrial production, so We Gorge. Obesity is a comorbidity for two hundred plus chronic diseases The central node in a network of poor health outcomes total bill for national health expenditures including public and private spending is five point three trillion dollars twenty thirty three One out of every five dollars in the economy will go to healthcare This is the IED at the center of the U.S. economy Five years ago, when Ozempic and Wagovi were first approved for weight loss, GLP on s looked like a silver bullet for obesity Today, they' a fully loaded magazine of silver bullets aimed at obesity addiction canancer sleep apnea and a growing list of other diseases and chronic conditions The velocity of innovation is remarkable Usually when a new medicine happens, we have time to learn how to use it Dror. Melanie Jay, director of the NYU Langone compomprehensive program on Oesity, told The New York Times But with GLP ones, Everyone is kind of iterating in real time someome recent iterations Last month Eli Lilly announced that it's phase three trial for Retaruide, a triple agonist dubbed Godzilla that activates GLP one, GIP, and glucagon receptors. appears to exceed the performance of other weight loss medications onn average Patients on Zepbound or Wagovi lose between fourteen percent and twenty percent of their initial body weight over seventy two weeks. Patients in the Retaruide trial taking four milligram, nine milligram, and twelve milligram doses lost an average of nineteen percent. twenty six percent. and twenty nine percent of their starting weight, respectively The most promising drug is Foundeo A daily pill from Eli Lilly, the FDA approved for weight loss in April In clinical trials, it resulted in twelve percent weight loss over seventy two weeks less effective than shots, but a good alternative for the sixty six million Americans who are afraid of needles Pills also show a promise as a maintenance tool As Nicholas Florco wrote in the Atlantic America has a new GLP one playbook with a shot to lose weight and a pill to keep it off In the US, one in eight adults currently take a GLP one, with prescriptions for weight loss doubling from twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five It's wororking. A year after the drugs were approved for weight loss The U.S. obesity rate peaked at forty percent But it has since begun to decline Sadly, GLP ones haven't had the same impact on their initial target diabetes William Gibson famously said The future is already here It's just not evenly distributed He could have been describing GLP ones A recent Cleveland clinic study found that cost by far the primary reason people quit Fty seven percent of those who discontinued the drugs, citing insurance denial preparation of a discount coupon or unaffordable out of pocket expenses Side effects were the second most common reason, cited by fourteen percent of respondents, while less than two percent quit due to unsatisfactory weight loss In other words GLP ones can change society if We distribute them to everyone who needs them, regardless of their ability to pay Good news Beginning July one Medicare Part D will cover certain GLP one treatments with a fifty dollars monthly cay for seniors Bad news Private insurance plans, which provide pharmaceutical benefits for two thirds of Americans are scaling back GLP one coverage if they even offered it to begin with According to the Wallreet Journal, eleven percent of employers have dropped or are planning to drop GLP one coverage for weight loss altogether And more than a quarter of big companies are adding hurdles, such as requiring multiple weigh inss a month, meal tracking on apps, or mandatory health coaching The US is simultaneously hitting the gas while pumping the brakes on the best tool we have for combating obesity With a few exceptions, the seventeen companies valued at one trillion dollars or more are all technology companies heavily invested on AI. The only drug maker on the list is Eli Lilly, whose shares have registered a four hundred and eighteen percent increase since GLP one s were first approved for weight loss in twenty twenty one Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly's chief competitor and the maker of Ozempik and Wagovi, is up just two percent over the same period. The discrepancy points to something unusual about the dynamics of GLP one pricing Typically, drug prices are inelastic, thati. e, consumers aren't very responsive to price changes unless a generic option is available But as one industry analyst explained The obesity market has turned traditional pharma economics upside down Eli Lillily's products have a perceived efficacy edge, but the company also beat Novo Nordisk to the direct to consumer market On my podcast, Eli Lilly chair and CEO David Ricks told me In the GLP one category, we observe prices are elastic The more we lower the price the more users we get. That's the path we're on GLP one' s may be the rare pharmaceutical case where capitalism is on the consumer side But Rick also told me GLP ones are unique insofar as nearly everyone who takes them loses weight Unlike drugs for other chronic conditions, People like being on GLP ones because they notice results in their appearance rather than intangible health benefits and side effects The fine print Many people may never stop taking GLP ones, creating an enduring subscription business Netflix, but with monthly prices ranging from one hundred and forty nine dollars to four hundred and ninety nine dollars. And instead of market competition, a duopoly GLP one' s may not be an off ramp from the industrial Food Medical Pharma complex physiological lock in. Victoria's Secret shhares surged forty seven percent last week after the company reported fifteen percent year over year revenue growth and raised full year sales guidance to seven point one billion dollars Meanwhile, fast food chains are shrinking their footprint, with Jack in the box, Pizza Hut, and Wendy's among the brands closing hundreds of stores nationwide That's yet another bad sign for an industry that's registered more than five hundred franchisee bankruptcies this year US alcohol sales are also down, with Diaggio and Pernude Ricard reporting a fifteen percent decline year over year, while constellation brands saw a ten percent drop. CEOs have blamed tariffs, affordability, and in the case of alcohol, Gen Z But GLP ones are a more likely explanation for the shift in consumer behavior More signals The share of apparel exchanges where shoppers size down has risen for three consecutive years, hitting a fourteen percent high among online retailers Adults who use GLP ones consume twenty one percent fewer calories spend nearly a third less on groceries on average Meanwhile, fifty nine percent of Americans say they'd be more likely to visit restaurants that serve flexible customizable or innovative portion size options And that goes up to seventy three percent among GLP one users. The same report noted that thirteen percent of restaurant operators have listed items that appeal to GLP one users, higher protein and or fiber and forty two percent say they're considering such additions. There will be downstream effects A significant decline in fast food revenue will accelerate closures across the industry's two hundred thousand plus US locations, destabilizing commercial real estate markets and threatening the livelihoods of the four million people who work in the sector. Apparel brands that built supply chains around stable sizes and predictable returns will have to adjust to hit a moving target America's shrinking Wasteline AI narrative has turned negative Energy costs are up. Jobs are supposedly going away relelationships are going virtual, and if the technology advances as promised presents a threat to humanity the GLTP one story offers something Silicon Valley used to produce in abundance a hopeful vision of the future Every American knows people who struggle with their weight. We all know someone who has a chance to live longer do more and feel better about themselves because of GLP ones. A nation's greatness isn't measured in GDP, but in the quality of life its citizens enjoy For the first time, in decades, American innovation is adding years to lives, not just zeros to valuations The question isn't whether GLP Oes will change the US they already have. Question is whether we'll be stupid enough to ration the change Life is so rich Support for the show comes from Odu Running a business is hard enough So why make it harder? with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other Introducing Odu It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e commerce and more