Balancing Liberal Values and National Security

For exclusive interviews, bonus episodes, ad free listening, early access to series, first look at live show tickets, a weekly newsletter, and discounted books, join the declassified club The rest is classified. com What does the threat from Russia look like if you're on its borders? And our Western spies and governments agreed on how to confront it Well, welcome to the Rest is Classified. I'm Gordon Carrera This time there's no David Mclvky. that's because I'm actually in Estonia, one of the Baltic states in its capital, Talin, I'm here for a security conference at which officials spy chiefs other types are all meeting to try and look at some of the threats, particularly from Russia some of the issues around Ukraine, but also the NATO alliance, how it's getting on, what the relationships with the Americans are like I've been here actually chairing a panel with some of the spy chiefs from the region. I'd love to tell you more about that, but I'm afraid that really is classified because it was an off the record panel. But I've spent a couple of days here also going down to close to the Russian border for a military exercise called Spring Storm watching Estonian defefense forces work with French troops who were there in some camouflage vehicles and some British troops who were camped in the woods in some I think less glamorous conditions than the French, strangely enough, using some sensor devices which were hidden in trees and which could detect using video imagery, but also seismic activity, whether, for instance, Russian troops might at one point go over the border, all part of this exercise. And it's all a sign really that Estonia, the Baltic states are on the front line from the Russian threat. I mean, very, very close. While we were going to this exercise at one point, we went just a couple of miles from the Russian border and were told put our phones on airplane mode, the reason being that otherwise they might switch to a Russian mobile phone network entirely sure whether we were told not to do that because they might spy on us or whether it was because we'd rack up a huge mobile bill. But anyway, that's what we were told to do. There are also, I think some pictures circulating of me clambbering out of a French kind of tank armored reconnaissance vehicle, not very elegantly. If you see those, they are not AI generated, I'm afraid they really were me This we thought might be a chance on the podcast to give you a bit of a sense of how the security and intelligence situation feels if you're in the Baltic States, if you're on the border with Russia, how worried are people here about that possible threat of maybe a Russian invasion or of sabotage the so called hybrid or greay zone warfare that's going on. So I've been speaking to a few of the people who are here at this conference trying to give a flavor really of some of the things that are getting discussed bit different what we normally do, so you might hear a bit of background noise and a little bit of chaos, but that's the feel of what things are like here, so hope you don't mind too much. Two people I sat down with first were two journalists, two quite good friends of mine, I have to admit, Shane Harris from the Atlantic Magazine in the United States, and Sean Walker from the Guardian newewspaper in the UK also written a very good book called The Illegals on Russian spies, just to talk a bit about what we were learning from the conference This episode is brought to you by HP. In intelligence work, it's rarely the obvious problem that causes failure. It's the overlook detail or the flaw nobody quite solved, the kind of vulnerability intelligence services look for. And running a business is the same, especially when you're building or growing a team, it's the risks you can't see or don't understand HP designs technology so devices, collaboration tools, and security work together as a single system, helping teams keep everything running smoothly at home, in the office and out in the field. 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And for a limited time, college students get the best of both worlds. Get the unreal college deal, everything you need to study and play with select Windows eleven PCs. Eligible students get a year of Microsoft three hundred sixty five premium and a year of Xbox GamePass ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller Learn more at windows. com slash student offffer. Law suppupplies last ends june thirtieth, terms at aka. mS slash collllege PC Okay, I am sat with two Distinguished veteran We're correspondents who cover not just these conferences, but the world of national security, Russia, intelligence, and also I have to admit to friends of mine. Shane Harris, now staff writer at the Atlantic Magazine in the US and Sean Walker, who is from the Guardian also author a very good book on illegals, one of my favorite topics, Deep cover Russian spies. Both of you, thanks for joining us. Shane, what's your view of the mood of this conference? It's a little bit like from the opening session onwards, there's an edginess between the US and Europe, isn't there? Yeah, I think so. I mean This conference when I came last year was sort of like this feeling of, you know The U.S. and Europe are we breaking up And this year's kind of like it feels like we're breaking up. Like you feel there's there's a frostiness even that was there last year and this year just feels like it's more settled into like a freeze Um You know, the Americans only sent one person as far as I'm aware of really to speak on any panels. He's under secretary of state. People were mispronouncing his name. No one had really ever heard of him. He didn't know people who were anser asking his questions who, you know in defense, you should know Yeah He did. He did because we ever wanted to beat up on him, right? Be I mean these are sort of questions that people are asking, you know Where are the Americans? What's the role? But it's interesting. It sort of, it felt like to me people here just have resigned to the fact. the United States. and Tom Donano is his name, by the way. And in his defense, he did keep saying, United States is not leaving Europe. We're not leaving NATO But I think that there's a real understanding that the relationship has fundamentally changed. And I'm not sure that people are counting on that snapping back if a Democrat is elected in twenty eight. Maybe it will. But it does feel like Europe has been planning for life after America for a while and this conference kind of reflects that Joan, what do you think Yeah, I would agree. I mean, I think it's, you know, in this part of Europe, you have the by by the size of the countries and their location, they're naturally very cautious about saying anything publicly that would be sort of critical of the US. And I think last year there was still this, even though we'd had, know Hagseth coming to Brussels and we'd had Zelensky being humiliated in the White House, there was still this sense of like, o, you know, looking at the positives like actually Trump is just waking us all up and this is great and it's all going to be fine And yeah, this year it feels a little bit different I was talking a couple of hours ago to a Russian journalist who said it was Fascinating to be in that room with Tom Dinano. and for one moment, it seemed like Russia wasn't the main enemy of everyone in the room. And there was this real frustration. I mean you know, the man was asked twice, a very direct question u would the U S come to the defense of a Baltic state if it was invaded, And his answer did not include the word yes. Yeah, it was a more answer wasnt it? And there was this constant questioning, will you say explicitly Russia is a threat? And there was a kind of there seemed to be a moment where even that was difficult to say. Yeah. And I think he's like, look, I mean, somebody in his position knows that he's one bad quote away that gets tweeted from losing his job. rightight? I mean And you know, again, he did say that the United States is with NATO, but it did kind of feel half hearted Right And I think people in the room understood that and were pressing for more of an answer, knowing he probably wouldn't give it. And you're probably right that yeah, he was worried about the headline tomorrow being Trump Under Secretary says US will fight Russia. Yeah. that's the last thing he. And then there was also a funny bit where there then was a row between the Europeans about whether I think wasn't it Spain is spending enough on defense? And it turned into a like the Spanish diplomat stood up and go, No those figures are wrong. We're spending more on defense. And someone said, this is what NATO is like. You just don't normally see it You know, on public display with you know, everyone trying to work out what the Americans think and the Europeans arguing about defense spending. So it's a bit where you know, it's out in the open a little bit more than it used to be the kind of some of the tensions between different. And there's a general rule that like high level conference panels are just incredibly boring sets of, you know, policy monologues and nobody real disagreements and suddenly, you're like, o, this is quite nice. This is interesting. Yeah. It's good for us journalists.. Yeah I was just muttering the panel where was you know, everybody was agreeing, you know Raa, Ukraine, they're the future, et cetera. And there was one person who was like, Nope, absolutely not. You're all mistaken. This is an idiotic way to think about it. And we had the Prime Minister of Albania, who was on a panel yesterday who was very spicy Um ye, but it is interesting to mean, like, you know, it's There's sort of a challenging of assumptions that goes along with some of that. And if you know, there's a little bit of even, I think some people on these panels K of use growing up words on this on this podcast. You look calling their bullshit, right a little bit. And I think that was kind of what was going on yesterday with somebody trying to say that Spain wasn't pulling its weight. Now I think the guy got his facts wrong and didn't you know, quite get the figures right. But I mean the thrust of it, right was what was interesting. And you're watching these Europeans kind of like punch at each other right now too, which of course, you know, in the absence of Americans they're likely to do. What about I mean we're interested in intelligence and the classified world on this podcast. What's your sense we've obviously got to be a bit discreet about our sources, all being good journalists, about what the mood is within that world. I mean, we're talking about some of the political relationships and diplomatic relationshipships getting a bit more tetchy. Do you think that's also true at the working intelligence level? I would say at the working level things still look. feel like they're largely working to people, but it's not as smooth as it used to be. I do think that there is hesitation and even suspicion on this part of some Europeans about sharing sensitive information with the Americans, not for fear that their working level colleagues will misuse it, but that something goes up the chain to the White House or goes Yeah or lands at the Hoover builduing and, you know, somebody gets a hold of it who works there. and they don't particularly like what he does with it., there's real there's real concern about that. I mean look I mean, I think that if you talk to people in European intelligence services. about the political leadership of the intelligence community. There's deep, deep anxiety about that. The CIA feels a little bit, I think, in their on a more of a study ground I mean, John Racciff, the CI director, for people I talk to seems like someone they look at and they're like, this is a counterpart that we feel good working with. And they're to be candid, glad that he's the one who's actually in charge and not the director of National intntelligence, Delsea Gabbard, who is utterly marginalized. But there's no doubt that there are tensions here. And I think that there's a real desire on the part of some of these foreign services to get the Americans, particularly the CIA to recommit to be very committed on Ukraine and to be aggressive. And I think that there's a feeling that, you know, the CIA is with Ukraine right now, even if the White House feels like they're not. What's your s Yeah, I think I mean, on recent trips to Ukraine and talking to people in Kyiv Yeah, definitely there's a sense that with the exception of that kind of very brief week back you last spring notot much on the ground has really changed, that people are happy to work. and I think perhaps because of the obvious levels of discretion in this, because it does happen behind closed doors, there's less of a worry than there is with you know other policy areas where you don't want to say anything publicly and you don't want to be seen to be helping. So I think those links are quite strong U But I guess there is also just this fear as there is with the military side of stuff with NATO, that just the kind of The imbalance is so strong. So I mean someone said to me recently that if you took all of NATO except the US, you still wouldn't have as good capacities sugg just the US on its own. So the idea of kind of losing losing that is really worrying. and I guess, you know, it's a quieter conversation, but the conversation people are having here 's starting to have, you know, we noticed here about we need to think about h you know, we hope we hope the transans lines is going to stay strong, but we need to think about what happens if it doesn't I suspect that's also kind of just starting to happen as well. Yeah It's interesting in the intelligence world because you definitely feel like people say operationally things are still strong, they're still going. you hear that from the Brits and the others. But you also think to yourself at some point if the political level and the diplomatic level are diverging in what they how they see the world and what they want to do in the world, That's bound to eventually kind of feed back down into the The working I think so. And you know and it's worth pointing out too that you have You know, in the DNI currently, although she doesn't talk about this, you know, Telsy Gabbard, somebody who ran for president and ran for Congress obviously successfully, committed to no foreign wars, no foreign interventions Well, we're currently attacking Iran or with Iran. There's real tension there and disconnect as well. That's kind of like the flip side of it where I mean, she's not with the program perhaps. But I do think that, you know, you know, there there's a u I think that there is a kind of reluctance even at the working level. to obviously to speak out, they don't speak out normally. But there's a real reluctance around saying the wrong thing and challenging people at the policy level right now. And you know we've seen you know mass firings at the FBI in the counter intelligence field, which are punitive. I mean, these are people who were involved in things like You know the Mar Lago investigation and those people are being fired. And so there is a real reluctance and you hear people saying this to do that speak truth to power, which is sort of the mantra of the intelligence community. And that's something that could be generationally damaging, particularly if you're firing people or they're quitting and getting out. And then let's say we do snap back to something more traditional with a Democratic president or even another Republican Well, all those people are gone And you know and people I talk to say there's a real worry that even younger people in the intelligence community will start to think this is how it's always been, where we are just sort of like subservient to political masters and have to keep in line with the policy rather than just saying what we think the truth is. There is that feeling that it's not going to go back, is it quite to what it was, I guess, in the wider relationship, but maybe in that intelligence world. S, I should also say we went out to a military exercise, didnn't we? In we Yeah Shane, you missed this. I mean did I know mayaybe you knew better because it was a long, long way away a very long coach ride back in which we were eating nuts and crisps most of the way to try and sustain ourselves. But I guess it was quite interesting, wasn't it to see on the ground, you know, the Brits were there, the French were there all working together So it feels like still at that level, the relationships are strong militarily and as we said, intelligence wise. But it does feel like something's changing, isn't it? That's the mood I think. Yeah. I mean, I think the most interesting thing there was just the location. So we were what like three miles away from from Russia from the Russian border. you know, sort of the suddenly you came to a kind of village car park behind the local shop and there's a whole load of kind of French heavy armored vehicles there and a bunch of French soldiers. So it was pretty interesting from that perspective I guess that you know, one of the things I was trying to understand because I'm not a military person. I'm been trying to do some reporting on you know these how these thoughts are changing about what would happen in a kind of Aticle V situation. you know, one one person here, but political person said to me that, you know the whole point post twenty twenty two Um, was that it was decided These things happen automatically. So like the forces are there, they're ready to move. If the incursion happens, you know that it will happen without a kind of political phone call thenen the flip side of that, I was also just just now talking to Carlo Marsalo, who wrote, this book about the future scenario of a possible Russian invasion. And he was like, well, yeah does happen they have changed that, but it would just take one phone call to stop that happening. and what happens if you know calls his commander and says, well, that I've just been on the phone to Putin and he says this is just a limited thing and we're not going to risk World War three. Like then what happens? then you know how does the Be it's that feeling that the Russians could try and test things and if they're going to test, you know, they're already testing things with sabotage operations, but they could try and test things in the Baltics. This is possibly where it could happen What they all say here is that Russia doesn't have much by way of hardware across the border right now, right? Be it's all in Ukraine So it would require some kind of settlement in Ukraine. And until then probably what's more likely is the kind of escalation of the sabotage. So like the sabotage in Europe so far hasn't been aimed at killing people like in Ukraine, but maybe they could step that up and then You know, where's the line? what's the war? what's Aticle four? What'srticle five? L it's all quite foggy and And you really, I mean, to the point about not starting World War three, and this is what Trump literally talks about, right? When he berated Zelensky months ago in the Ovalffice, he's saying, you're going to start World War threeI. I will say, it was a fear that the Biden administration had to. I mean, Mark Milley literally walked around when he was chairman of the Joint Chiefs with index cards, on the top of which, one of those was written, Don't start World War three What was M obbjective.t donon't get into a nuclear war with the Russians. And it was sort of based on a set of presumptions that the Russians would rush up the escalatory ladder, that they might use a tactical nuclear weapon. It seemed like those anxieties kind of you ebbed over time I think when Trump talks about not wanting to start a war with Russia. he has different calculations and different ideas in mind, right? whichich is you know, I think that he views Russia as almost like a pure power. And I don't think the U. S intelligence community views it that way. But you know he is seemingly like trying to obviously avoid escalation, but extract from this as well. And you know, in wants to be done with Ukraine the way I think he wants to be done with Iran. You feel that in this audience too. So I hope you do you enjoy these conferences? I mean, I'm not sure my liver always enjoys these conferences or my sleep patterns because I think you were here I could see you quite late last night. I was up late. Yeah, you were later than I was, I think. I think you on an early bed. you had have moderated eight starts so early. You had lly in the morning I did last night. You know I come I come a day early and you're did not go with you on the bus. with the chips down at the car park and whatever. So I took myself to a very nice dinner Well, well done Thank you for joining us.' L last question. any current recommendations of favorite buy books, films. I'll give you one that's been off there for a little bit, but I hope that it's going get re uppp. is the agency which is the American version of the bureau, which the bureau is the best TV show about espionage in my opinion The agency is really, really good And I was told by a reliable source that the CIA offered to help them with technical advice And the producer said, No, thank you erest whichich is interesting to me mayaybe say we don't need your help Jonath you U yeah, I'm not quite espionage the criminal record police drama that I've just been watching which I quite enjoyed with Yeah pretty good Very good. Well, than you I let you both go back to the conference to hard work, networking, doing what journalists do. Maybe have a drink late drinking gene andonics, maybe later Shane Seaan, thanks very much. Thank you, Jheers. Thanks I said there was no David on this podcast. Kind of not true though, because we've got a different David. I found another David who was an intelligence analyst Even more to David McClossky's annoyance he was actually in the DIA, the Defense intntelligence aggency. His name is David Katler He was a US intelligence analyst but then became Assistant Secretary General of NATO in charge of intelligence and security including in the run up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty two, where he was quite involved in briefing people. So I sat down with him to get a bit of a sense of How intelligence sharing NATO and those relationships look from his perspective David Catt looked Tell me how did you end up in charge of intelligence at NATO Well, no one ends up. in charge of intelligence. No, sorry, teasase me a little bit. So the position was created in twenty sixteen as a decision of the Warsaw summit largely because leaders agreed that They needed military and civilian intelligence integration And then they added a further complication of combining intelligence and security into one division is a very interesting idea for NATO because it's the only joint division. the joint military and civilian and joint intelligence and security In the first go, I was preceded by a German diplomat A't von Moringhoven And and then I was selected in the summer of twenty nineteen to come in And really with the thought that Art had been one of the two vice presidents of B andD. The Japanese intntelligence. sorry. ye. R, but was also a career diplomat prior that sat in the seat as the vice president that usually the Ministry of Foreign Affairs fills And I think appropriate actually for that period of time because the challenge really was How do you bring this thing together How do you negotiate in fact with twenty what they twenty seven allies, I think or twenty six allies at that time How do you get that done? and how do you get these services to work in concert I had had the majority of my career in intelligence. And so a bit different you know background and an approach. and the thought at that time was You need to make sure then that we actually transition this thing to a full operational So your background was as an analyst because we like analysts on this. Well, who does? As I said, the analyst is the apex predator of the intelligence community. No no matter wheret the intelligence collectors, the case officers think they're the Well you heard Danel Marketsz try to say that. who yeah, the head of the European the head of He was also head of the Croatian external serervice Yes. I felt unconvincingly So you think analysts are the top dog. Why? Wh Why are they so important? Because look and I don't mean to diminish any any other role in intelligence being. they're all critically outical ye Yeah But I think as a former analyst, I think a few things are true first you see across a tremendous amount of the work and of the content, depending on your topic, your seniority, you know, your role at that particular time And I think that does give you quite an interesting perch because eventually we do learn quite a bit, even as analysts about the collection and about the management and about the resourcing Because it's not just important to understand the facts and be able to put them in some coherent structure But also you know, a bit of, well, how did we get that? becausecause that gets to the confidence potentially in the information But I also think being an analyst set up. I mean I was an enterprise mission manager within the U. S. intntelligence community for quite some time also. And I think the preparation as analyst was quite good for that role as well because Analysts are taught how to think and how to think at a very particular structure. and to have the rigor and the discipline when we think and when we analyze and when we advise And of course, one of the most significant things that happened during your time was the run up to the invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty two, the full scaling invasion, which I guess was one of the most interesting examples we've had where intelligence and policy and decision making met and in which different countries took quite different positions about how to deal with intelligence that, I think primarily the US and UK were providing, about Russia's plans to invade Ukraine. And you were I guess at the fulcrome of that. So that must have been quite interesting to see how intelligence got used and when people take it seriously and how they treat it Yeah. I mean, look, it said such a very interesting M U Probably just about any time , but It's very rewarding to be there to be able to make a significant contribution time in the Alliance's history I think three things really stand out to me. I think the first is that performance of the Joint intntelligence and Security Division and the cooperation across those eighty five intelligence services from the thirty two Allies U could not have been better at a more important time So I think that's one thing I'd say The second thing I would say is as came up in the panel last night Nations handle their intelligence in different ways But the point I would make here is that Nations also take widely different approaches in the way that intelligence contributes to national security decision making There's a model in the US in the UK that's very similar Probably no small part because the UK trained us. on how to use intelligence, but it can be deeply cultural They can you know, some nations want stronger security services. some nations wish them to be weaker, some nations use them for research They're just yet another voice in that decision making process in some nations military and civilian services art might actually be prohibited from working with each other. It's not just that perhaps they don't want to. it's that they may not. to have a joint division where E ally contributes personnel participate from those allies, they do behave differently at NATO. And I think the final thing here, the big takeaway is the role of intelligence, especially at the strategic level there. was so interesting for me as a practitioner to observe in that, you know, I'd worked at the White House, I'd worked at the Pentagon thenen at NATO and a variety of roles over the course of my career. That one was the most demanding in terms of the need to do intelligence diplomacy askk for collection Ask for information to be provided, ask for different personnel, ask to come and visit and be briefed in a way that's going to make sense within your system so that I understand when the nations come together What must we say? There was this intelligence picture about what Russia was planning and yet Some people took it more seriously than others. I wonder if that was cultural, whether it was because it was the US the UK and some countries are less trusting of the US. UK, but you know, it was interesting, wasn't it? that some countries really didn't believe it was happening. And we've heard that, you know even here at this conference. People admit they they miss that. Yeah, sure, Gordon. But I just would differ on the use of the word serious Okay in this context Disagreeing with the analytic view is not the same as being unserious You can see the same pieces of intelligence make a different interretation. You could either draw a different conclusion altogether. Yeah which would be based on a range of things or I think, u more correctly in this case Different capitals have different risk thresholds. and then correspondingly different levels of evidence and confidence for themselves in that picture. before they're willing to take a political and military set of actions based on Let me just bring it up to date now. I mean you're out of that role now, but there is this question about how far The NATO Alliance, Western countries which form part of it, see the world and see the threat in the same way And it does feel like there's a greater divergence maybe now than we've seen in the past. I mean, whether it's particularly from the US to some European allies who've been here at this conference, you can sense a difference in language and interpretation pololitical? Is it intelligence based? Do it cause strains for the intelligence world? can, but I don't think. impactful terms, it does. I would go back and I like to point to what's agreed I mean, similar some other some other speakers here have made this point about judging by behavior rather than by rhetoric primarily. And I think Although now I' about raise rhoric take a look at how many suummit communicates. since twenty one twenty two time frrame take a look at the NATO strategic concept It is agreed among allies that Russia is the primary threat to the Alliance. Some people seem less willing to say it than others Okay, but it doesn't matter because they've said it in writing Okay it's published. and that is the position of the Alliance. agreed by all thirty two. the degree to which they believe that threat is proximate, the manner in which they believe it'll manifest timing Okay. That's going to vary But reasonable men and women can have those differences If at the core, they agree And this again, I asked so many times Not just during this conference, but in how many meetings since twenty one twenty two. of okay, but isn't it true that they didn't all fully agree Babinbard The rest is classified, but what I'd say is Hey, look, at the end of the day, they agreed enough to implement improved deterrence and defensive measures and they have seen the threat. ennough together that they have taken coordinated political and military action in the years to followed I mean, does it worry you as an American though here to come here to Europe and to hear some of the language about the US or questions which have come up in the conference, is the US going to be there for Europe you know against the Russian threat? I mean, that is clearly something people's minds Well, sure it is. I mean, you hear accent right?, obviously, I'm American So I believe that The United States has many facets to its superpower sets of capabilities, and one of the most significant, in fact, is its friendships and alliances I am hard pressed to see Oh a real threat to the United States that the United States would choose to or in some scenarios could even could even go it alone. So I'm more in the camp that now, I mean a transatlanticist by default, you know, having served those four years at NATO, but but have I have a deep belief that Alliances and friendships are essential to national security and to common security It is a bit painful to hear the questioning. Yeah. The thing that worries me the most though, is that All of these things, whether you go back to where you began with the intelligence questions, or you talk about policy, politics, military dynamics They all hinge on trust Trust takes a lot to sustain, and it does take focused effort. It takes some curation, it takes constancy U, it takes knowledge of each other with each other to even raise questions W this would arrticle five hold? Would this occur? Would that occur u does eat a bit at the very foundation that's so critical to the building of all of that trust and the security commitments to each other. The thing that I worry about when I hear this and why frankly, it's one of the reasons why I benefit so much of having come to Europe so many times in recent months is to hear directly from Europeans about what their concerns are in this space I'm listening for things about does trust still endure Where do you think trust is under strain if trust has been broken if there's a a negative feeling in the relationship. temporary does it rise to any significance? Does it actually matter? Is it political headwinds as opposed to deep Yeah, or again to one of my other points, is it just rhetoric? Yeah because Oh We're all professionals in our different disciplines. We understand that relationships eb and flow, personersonalities have a significant effect on these things. And a lot of us are aolitical institutional So we tend to see this all the way through But that I feel that that's increasingly put to the test And that to me is a signal that I've detected here and in some other forums lately that giv me gives me a bit of pause One last question, what do you think the biggest challengees ahead for the intelligence community? Technology and AI is something that you're looking at at the moment in a way it's maybe going to speed up decision making or the pressure to make decisions or provide analystic judgments. And I'll have a paper coming out on this soon as well for ICDS What we've centered on in our analysis is this concept called trusted autonomy and really to enncourage nations. Now it's written for an Estonian think tank. So a bit focused on Estonia, which is very digitized even in the national level within the government provision of public services And so the point we've made to them is AI will certainly accelerate things You should not substitute AI for human judgment across the board bear in mind the speed will also compress your ability, the latitude, the time that you have to deliberate, to check, to validate And if you cognitively surrender to the AI outsource too much to the AI It will go faster but you may make the wrong decision faster polleice, you know, pump the brak a little bit. put the right guardrails on that system And I think that's not limited to intelligence applications, I think that's just good government Well, the intelligence analysts will be pleased that they're not going get replaced. They hard to think they will. Thank you. Thank you very much for joining us. Thanks. Thanks a lot I've also been talking to someone else who's quite a senior figure here in Estonia and who's been very conference, his name is Thumas Ilveves He was a foreign minister for Estonia and then its president for ten years from two thousand six to twenty sixteen, he's a real close observer of the relationships, the international relationships. He was educated himself and grew up in the United States before coming back to Estonia. So I wanted to hear what he thought about the security threats and the relationships Hi, this is Garalinka from Goldhangers. The restest is Football. This episode is brought to you by Wise. It's only when you start moving money between currencies that you really think about the exchange rate, the fee and what might be hidden away in the small print Whether you're living abroad, paying someone overseas, or just trying to manage your money across borders, you want a fair exchange rate an easy transfer and no surprises along the way. 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Prices vary by stor exusions of pricey Home deepot com sl priceash for details So good, so good so good. New summer arrivals are at Nordstrom Rack stores now. Get ready to save big with up to sixty percent off brands like Rag and Bone, Lefi', Adidas, and Free People. Join the Nordy Club to unlock exclusive discounts, shop new arrivals first, and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite rack store for free Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack Estonia on the front lines with Russia The message from Estonia for so long has been that the rest of Europe needs to wake up to the Russian threat Do you feel, I mean sitting here at this conference talking to people, lots of people from other places in Europe, do you feel that message has got through or is it still a bit mixed? Oh, it's clearly, well, not not necessarily from this conference because this's kind of a meeting of sort of common minds here But certainly even now after twenty twenty two Od It's not really quite reached everyone and the you still detect people and hear about that in various countries in Europe, they're just champing at the bit to get back into Russia you know, the Elorado of do deals and do deals, right? I mean, what worries me about that because is that u We haven't learned the lessons of the Let's say eighty nine, ninety one and which we should because in eighty nine ninety one, everyone thought, okay, communism is over now, you know the default option is democracy. We should know by now that looking at Russia, looking at Yugoslavia, the default option is not democracy. And in fact, it's can be quite terrible, as we see in Ukraine today, as we saw in Bosnia and Herzegovina thirty years ago So the dangers are still quite real. I mean The mood also is that maybe Russia has quite bogged down in Ukraine. It's not going so well on the battlefield slightly more positive, but there's also worry about what comes next after that, isn't there? even if that's the case. If you put yourself in the position of the Russian leadership U you have several million men who have come back with PTSD We know we read about horrible crimes being committed by people who have come back from Ukraine. and If I were a Russian leader, Id go, well, I wouldn't want them in my country. Lets let's have another war. Maybe we can get, you know, sort of get them to go elsewhere On the other hand, there is this narrative of the Baltics are next. Yeah. I don't see that as necessarily the option. I mean, why wouldn't you say Georgeia is next or Kazakhstan is next? I mean you can do that without testing NATO I mean we went down to see the exercise, the Spring storm exercise. And clearly it's about preparing for the possibility of a Russian invasion into Estonia. And I think people are trying to think how to talk about that because you don't want to sound like too alarmist or that it's inevitable, but equally people want to deter it by saying we are prepared for such a possibility. There's a kind of fine balance, isn't there in how to talk about the threat and how big it is Here, having adopted from day one the finish model of Ccription army, we can get within a day seventy five thousand troops, all of whom, I mean, they're reservists and they have all trained and they continue to train because you have regular reserve exercises. U, and that is As I said, that's what the Finns have been practicing for seventy five years. So there there is an awareness among people here that we have to be prepared We also have a home guard, which has seen an explosion in membership again, prepared But the outside narratives of Narvaz next partially bas town on the border. Right. And partially based on the sort of the appeal of alliteration And then the actual the visual a stunning visual picture of two fortresses Now the countering that argument, of course, I mean not of us next, there is absolutely no irredentism or secessionism on the. the Russian side So about defending Russians You know, the salaries across the river like two hundred and fifty dollars or euros a month They're fifteen hundred on the Estonian side.. If you're Anyone who is a permanent resident of this country being a member, you can live and work anywhere in Europe except for the UK. sorry. And of course, why would any person want to be part of a Russia where you're father, brother, husband or son can be taken off and probably would be taken off Sent to Ukraine. Right. So there's so that I mean that is But it looks nice on the map. And that's why we end up getting a lot of because there are a lot of other border towns Yeah U but no one says, you know Vense pills is next. Yeah doesn't sound as good. So much does depend on the Mor Putin. I mean How much did you ever meet him? I mean, did you ever I did Yeah. but not very You must have observed him over many years as a foreign minaster. I still do. There's the mystery of what goes on in his head. And I think, you know we' You hear from the intelligence agencies, it's quite hard to get inside his head and what he's trying to do But it is something that You can sense people are constantly trying to work out what is going on in that one man's head Well, I mean, his um in sort of strange historical essay published in twenty twenty one. Um, is u I think is a pretty good indicator of kind of this uh his idea of, u, I mean, it's u it's a really sort of ethnically based revanchist u Translavic idea. Greater Russia. Greater Russia. and U, I was I mean, I I was in Munich in two thousand seven when he gave his speech. In fact, there's a picture of me in the front row with with Angela Merkel and with well because that was his really aggressive speech where he really that was where he came out. And I just there's a book that just came out of the reactions to that speech and I My reaction, which I wrote about there is like Oh, well, that's what we've been saying all along. Whereas people from the more western parts of Europe were saying, Oh my God, what has happened? Well because they thought they could do business with it. I mean, you know was It' literally business, but also political diplatic. I mean the hope was there and the hope didn't go away. I mean, the hope didn't go away with evenven with the annexation of Crimea, which was a fundamental violation of the UN Charter, for prohibition on changing borders through aggression, but you know Angela Merkel a year later and a year after the shootdown of MH seventeen killing three hundred people. mainly Dutch people She signed the Norord Stream two agreement. So I mean, u International law was trrumped by business, business of money. the I guess the other theme of this conference is whether There is a chance that Vladimir Putin might try and test NATO and whether he might see a window of opportunity because of Donald Trump, because of the questions about whether America really will stand by Article V, The idea will come to Europe's defense. Does it really see Russia as a threat What are you taking away? What's your feeling at the moment about how worried people here are about America's willingness to defend Europe effectively if the Russians do something. Well, Id say it's two tiered People in government are worried about what this means, but given our dependence on a bust U. S. response we less than other countries are willing to criticize the United States at this point. So I'm kind of an outlier. I mean I can I can and do say what I want, but I you know, I know the government is actually kind of very so yeah very quiet because they They see the immediate reaction. I mean, Med speaks in a kindergarten and says Trump and Trump gets angry and takes out five thousand troops.. So what's the benefit of speaking out, people think or of being too vocal in government America government Yeah mean Yeah basically, I mean You know, in the case of Meloney, it took Trump belittling the pope for her to get her back up. So I think that in Europe countries tend to be be low key. Th government leaders tend to be low key and then other people say what they want. Yeah. I mean, that's definitely There was definitely an interesting discussion here at the conference about how the Americans view Russia even and how far they're willing to articulate it as a threat, which I think the Americans, I think it's actually the Trump administration Yeah, as soon as you talk to people who are who have been doing policy for years. It's different they realize it quite well, but because you I mean, you were educated in the U.S, weren't you something? Yes. You spent a lot of time there. Yeah. That's why I have this accent. So does itay does it does it feel odd to you where we are now? Oh, it's it's it's I mean, it's for me personally, it's actually U very difficult in that my as a child of refugees grew up in the United States, I always thought of the United States as that city on the hill and You know, the ultimate defender of the enlightenment values of But I studied so much in university and So I had always respected the United States as like the one country that really stands for those fundamental values of of freedom and rule of law And u And now it's Basically everything seems to be antithetical to what I what I have always cherished as a result of being the child of refugees. And growing up in the United States, especially going to university, they really emphasized kind the historical enlightenment roots of the United States So, u And I don't know where it's heading It certainly it's not part of the consciousness of the leaders of the United States today. and I don't mean only Donald Trump, but I mean, you know when I read I President Vance or S secretary. somethingomething' changed Ruby. There's a deeper shift beyond just Donald Trump. I think which I think is which I think Europe is coming to terms with and you can sense slowly and trying to work out how it deals with it. Well what it needs to do is to get its act together and there are I mean, the problems of of Europe today really stem from taking a holiday from all of history beginning with eighty nine ninety. And N not spending enough on defense. Absolutely. Well, I mean, when the US, it was the US, it was George Herbert Walker Bush, who said you know, the peace dividends. So everyone said, Oh, yeah, great. we don't have to spend any money on defense anymore And besides well make a lot of money with Russia But in fact, it's not only spending money on defense, it's the failure of Europe to keep up with with the technological revolution. Last question. I mean, what is the biggest intelligence challenge, then do you think for Estonia right now Well, I think it's one that faces everyone. Mbe faces us more than others. Living in a liberal democratic society with freedom of speech and all the other fundamental rights and freedoms, How do you deal with these kinds of attacks that are ongoing? U and that's a very different response from the way you can do it in an authoritarian country In Estonia, especially because we have a Russian population that is or Russian speaking population that that's even a bad term because Everybody speak Russian here, but anyway a post sort of Soviet population that is better as overwhelmingly loyal to this country, but we always find kind of strange people who are willing to undertake tasks and do something And you know, we want to be remain one of the most liberal countries in Europe, which we remain continue to be. And at the same time, you have to balance that against national security. And I mean, that's a problem that that all democracies face but it is more acute here because of the I mean, our proximity to wr on the front line. And So that's what we deal with so far. we've done rather well, but you know, these it's an ongoing challenge Thomas Eilvvers, thank you very much for talking to us. G. Thank you So there you go. I hope you've enjoyed this little insight into some of the discussions here in Estonia. for club members members of the declassified club we've got something even more special because I actually visited